NFL Playoffs Set, Cowboys’ Road to Super Bowl LVIII Begins
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 7th, 2024 | 10:57 P.M. CST
Although the top overall seeds in each conference we set going into week 18, there was still a lot to be determined in the NFL Regular Season finales. Only two seeds were set in stone beyond the top seed in each conference and that was the Cleveland Browns locked into the #5 seed and the Kansas City Chiefs locked into the #3 seed, both in the AFC. Even though the majority of teams had clinched playoff spots already, that meant the #2, #4, #6, & #7 seeds in the AFC were still up in the air. And on the NFC side, every seed from #2 through #7 seeds were still undetermined, although 5 of the 7 playoff spots had already been clinched. Let’s take a look at how it shook out week 18, as well as take a look at the wild card matchups next week.
NFC East:
Two months ago, this division looked pretty clear: the Philadelphia Eagles were once again atop the NFC East, while the Dallas Cowboys were running second fiddle. Philadelphia was coming off an overtime victory over the Buffalo Bills, improving to 10-1 on the season (the NFL’s best record). The next game, however, changed the course of their season. They were absolutely stomped by the San Francisco 49ers in their home stadium, 42-19. Now, getting embarrassed by the 49ers isn’t something unique (just ask the Cowboys), but it was a sign of things to come. The Eagles went on to lose 5 of their final 6 regular season games, including a catastrophic loss last week to the Arizona Cardinals at home in a game where they led 14-3 late in the first half.
The Dallas Cowboys haven’t been playing their best football as of late in their own right. Following a dominating win at home over the Philadelphia Eagles in week 14, the Cowboys lost back-to-back road games. They were smacked by the Buffalo Bills on the road 24-3, a game in which Dak Prescott single handedly lost the MVP race. The Boys followed that up with a loss down in South Beach to the Miami Dolphins, a team that had yet to beat a team with a winning record all season up to that point.
Most felt the Cowboys would surely get back on track at home against a struggling Detroit Lions team in week 17, but they struggled to pull away from the Lions late in the game. A few horrific mistakes by Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys looked to have blown the game late in what should’ve been a sure victory. It culminated with the Lions scoring a TD to cut the Dallas lead to 19-20, and a supposedly “successful” two-point conversion that put the Lions up one with less than half a minute to play. Fortunately for the Cowboys, official Brad Allen and his crew deemed the offensive lineman who caught the successful two-point conversion for the Lions ineligible due to failure to report as eligible (a conversion that would’ve put the Lions ahead by 1 with 23 seconds remaining). Beyond the discussion about the penalty itself, one could argue the Cowboys would’ve won the game prior to all this nonsense if it weren’t for a bad call on Dallas on their final offensive possession. Nonetheless, the Cowboys did not look anywhere close to elite in their final 3 games against playoff teams.
Even after the squeaked out win against the Lions, the Cowboys still looked like they would be headed on the road for the first round of the playoffs (and possibly every playoff game they would play). However, they got some much needed help from the Cardinals, as they upset the Eagles in week 17, giving Dallas control of the NFC East. At that point all the Cowboys had to do to capture the #2 overall seed in the NFC and a divisional title was beat the 4-win Washington Commanders on the road in their final game. They also could win the division and secure the #3 seed with a loss to the Commanders and an Eagles loss to the New York Giants.
The Cowboys actually got the help they needed from the Eagles once again, as the New York Giants jumped all over the Eagles early in the game, building a 24-0 lead over Philadelphia, something nobody saw coming. The Eagles decided to pull their starters at that point, conceding defeat as well as the division. However, the Cowboys still had an incentive to win, as they wanted to ensure hosting a playoff game in the divisional round of the playoffs if both the Cowboys and Lions were to win their wild card games. And, Dallas did just that. Despite falling behind the Commanders 7-10 early in the game after a Washington blocked field goal and a Dak Prescott interception both led to Washington points, the Cowboys were able to kick into gear on both sides of the ball. They ran away with it, and the game was never in doubt as Dallas defeated the Commanders 38-10, securing their 2nd NFC East Title in the past three seasons, and locking up the #2 overall seed (which means at least two home playoff games if they are able to win the wild card round).
Matchup:
The Cowboys will host the #7 Green Bay Packers at home in a rematch of the infamous Dez Bryant “catch” in Green Bay almost a decade ago. The playoffs started early for Green Bay this week as they were in a “win and in” situation against their divisional rival, the Chicago Bears. The Packers were able to hold on in an ugly game 17-9, securing the final playoff spot in the NFC.
Dallas opened a 7 point favorite in this matchup with Green Bay tonight, which is likely to be the second biggest point spread of the first round matchups (Bills are -8.5 vs. Steelers). Green Bay is a weird team to pin down, however. Although the Packers have been on a hot streak as of late, they had two head-scratching losses sandwiched in between their winning streak, losing to the New York Giants and at home to the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Giants have definitely played better football as of late, however they beat the Packers when they still had Tommy Devito playing QB. And while the Bucs have looked horrible the past few games, Baker Mayfield went into Lambeau Field, posted a perfect QB rating, and dominated the Green Bay Packers. How? Inconsistency from a young Green Bay team, as well as a lack of ability to stop the pass defensively.
That is where I believe Dallas has a big edge here. Not only do they have the better defense, but the Packers “D” is absolutely horrific against the pass, ranking in the bottom of the league in a number of statistical categories. They got lit up by Baker Mayfield as mentioned. They also allowed Bryce Young to have the best game of his career a few weeks ago, throwing for over 300 yards and 3 TDs in a game that the Packers needed a walk off Field Goal just to hold onto the victory. Thus, Dallas should have plenty of success through the air with Dak finding Ceedee Lamb, Jake Furgeson, and Brandin Cooks. Dallas also has been elite at home, posting a perfect 8-0 record, and winning 16 straight home games in AT&T Stadium. Still, the Cowboys have a history of blowing big games in the playoffs, and they will have to play a solid game to come out of the wild card round with a victory.
All that said, the Cowboys are in great position to make a real playoff run. The dominoes fell exactly how they needed to for this Dallas team to have a real shot, and it’s now on McCarthy, Dak and the roster to get it done.
