Blog
WNBA Moneyline Parlay (6/17/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 17, 2025 | 4:32 PM CST
Previous Best Bets: 2-0 on the Friday bets at the US Open. We had two stress free wins Friday with Brooks Keopka leading from start to finish over Jordan Speith who was horrible Friday morning. We followed that up with an EASY win with Adam Scott shooting an even par 70, while Tom Kim struggled his way to a 4 over 74. Gotta love easy wins.
Current Streak: 3
WNBA Moneyline Parlay:
Indiana Fever -1790 vs. Connecticut Sun: This is not going to be close. Indiana lost the last time they played, and that was without Caitlin Clark in the lineup. This Connecticut team is arguably the worst team in the WNBA. They just lost at home to the Chicago Sky, a team the Fever beat by 30 without 2 starters (including Clark). The Fever are a 17.5 point favorite. They have a decent chance of covering that number
New York Liberty -370 vs. Atlanta Dream: This is a classic spot for a team that has overperformed (Atlanta) to come back down to earth. The Liberty started this season a perfect 9-0, but they dropped their first game of the season last outing at Indiana. Caitlin Clark was phenomenal with 32 points, 9 assists, and 8 rebounds. And NY had no answer. But now they are back at home, looking to bounce back. This is a good spot for the Liberty. Additionally, the Liberty were without multiple starters last game. They have all but one starter back now. That paired with their overall talent level, coming off a loss, and playing at home all lead this to a game that New York runs away with. They will come out angry and look to respond from that loss to Indiana.
Minnesota Lynx -845 vs. Las Vegas Aces: The Aces are just not the same team this season. Trading Kelsey Plum has proved to be a terrible mistake. And now they are down Aja Wilson? This team is nowhere near good enough to compete with the second best team in the league on their home floor. Minnesota wins here easily.
Seattle Storm -410 vs. Los Angeles Sparks: This Seattle team is very inconsistent. They were 9.5 point favorites last outing against a .500 GS Valkaryies team, and they got absolutely spanked. If this game was being played at full strength, I would say this is a 50/50 game, but still a good spot for Seattle coming off a loss. They have plenty of talent. The problem for the Sparks is they will be without their two leading scorers, including their best player in Kelsey Plum. Those injuries are way too much to overcome. Give me Seattle in this spot.
Official Pick: 4-Team Parlay (Fever, Liberty, Lynx, Storm) -114
Play-Rating: 2-Star
U.S. Open Round 2 Matchup Best Bets (6/13/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 13, 2025 | 3:47 A.M. CST
Previous Bet: We got home easily with Tyrese Haliburton over. A nice 3-star winner for the followers of my page, as Haliburton got there in the middle of the third quarter. No sweat on that one, and we’ve started a new streak. I’m headed to Las Vegas today, so let’s get on a heater while I’m there!!
Current Streak: 1
Best Bets:
Best Bet No. 1: Brooks Koepka +104 vs. Jordan Speith (RD 2 Matchup):
We’re going to ride with two-time U.S. Open Champion over my favorite golfer today. Despite my love for Jordan Speith, the fact of the matter is that he just hasn’t had it the past couple years. It feels like we all are just waiting for Speith to have some sort of resurgence in his career, and yet it just has not happened. Speith played well yesterday, getting in at even par. But he’s been extremely inconsistent round-to-round. Par yesterday at Oakmont is an exceptional score. It’s hard to see a world where Jordan follows that up with anything BETTER than a 70 today. On the other side, Koepka is the exact opposite. When he’s playing poorly, he often misses the cut. But when he puts up a good first round at a major, he actually tends to improve round to round (relative to course conditions, not always score-wise). Koepka got in at even par, just as Speith did. However, that included finishing with back-to-back birdies on 17 and 18. Had Koepka got through those two holes with two pars, he comes in 2 shots off the lead, in a tie for third. It’s a completely different spot than he’s currently in. Brooks just LOOKED the better golfer, and he’s had significantly more success in majors in the recent past. I actually have ZERO clue how Brooks is a DOG here. I guess his current form is to blame for the number, but Speith has just not been good. Back Brooks to take down Speith at plus money, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it wasn’t particularly close. By the way, I give Brooks a 68% shot to shoot better than Jordan today, and yet we’re catching 4 extra cents on the dollar. I considered making this a 3-star, but we’ll stick to 2-star
Official Pick: Brooks Koepka +104 Over Jordan Speith (U.S. Open Round 2 Matchup)
Play Rating: 2-Star
Best Bet No. 2: Adam Scott -134 vs. Tom Kim
Adam Scott was phenomenal in approach yesterday in round 1 at the U.S. Open. He hit 14 greens in regulation on his way to an even par 70. That said, he struggled with the putter (not a huge surprise). Scott, who will turn 45 next month, still has some good golf left in him. He finished top 10 in the Open Championship at the end of last year, and he finished top 20 (19th) in the PGA Championship roughly a month ago. The experience in this level of tournament can’t be understated. When we look at the other guy here, Tom Kim has been far from good this season. He comes in nowhere near top form. Over the past 4 months, Kim’s BEST finish in a PGA event is a tie for 36th, back in March at the Valspar Championship. In that same span he’s missed the cut 4 times, including last week at the RBC Heritage Canadian Open. His last 4 starts have been as follows: CUT, T-44th, 71st, T-54th. There is just no reason to believe Tom Kim is going to come out and shoot a good score with the course conditions the way that they are. Additionally, I can’t get out of my mind last year, when he absolutely imploded later in the tournament. I think this is a HUGE misprice, as I believe Scott should be closer to -200 or -210 based on the matchup and current form. So, let’s back the veteran Master’s Champion in Adam Scott, as I believe he will easily score better than Tom Kim in round 2 today. Back Adam Scott.
Official Pick: Adam Scott -134 Over Tom Kim
Play Rating: 2-Star
NBA Finals Game 3 Player Prop Best Bet (6/11/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 11, 2025 | 2:18 P.M. CST
Last Bet: We took a loss on our last play with Aliyah Boston over on points. She was at 7 in the first half, and on pace to go over. However, the Fever were up so many on the Sky that Boston did not play much in the 4th quarter, and she finished with just 10 points (we needed 14). Let’s start a new streak tonight. I’ll have one official best bet and I’ll also include the small things I bet tonight.
Current Streak: 0
Best Bet: Tyrese Haliburton OVER 18.5 Points (-104)
Haliburton has really struggled the first two games of the NBA Finals. Everyone remembers the shot he hit in game 1, but the reality is he’s been bad offensively. That said, he hasn’t been inefficient. He’s just not put up the volume required for a guy who is supposed to be the number one option. The first two games Haliburton has scored just 14 and 17 points in each respective game. Tonight we need 19 or more points to go over the total.
None of Haliburton’s inconsistencies in terms of production are surprising. He’s largely been an up and down player over the course of his career, especially scoring wise. If you look at Haliburton’s numbers throughout the playoffs, every single time he’s scored 18 or less back-to-back games (which he did in games 1 and 2), he follows it up with 19 or more the following game. Moreover, when you dive further and look back to the regular season, that pattern continues all the way back to JANUARY. Meaning, it’s been over months since Haliburton has gone 3 straight games without scoring 19 or more. Additionally, all he’s heard over the past 2 days is how unaggressive he was in the first two games & how the Pacers need him to be more aggressive to have a shot to win this series. He even mentioned it after the game 2 loss in the press conference.
With all that in mind, this is a no-brainer. This is one trend that I looked at and decided this is going to be a MAJOR play on for us. It’s a HUGE game for the Pacers’ championship hopes. We KNOW we’re going to get the volume we need in terms of shot attempts. Barring just a HORRIBLE game shooting wise, we are going over this number. The Thunder have really crowded passing lanes and made it difficult for Haliburton to be the distributor that he loves to be. So we also have the scheme working in our favor. Back Tyrese Haliburton to go OVER his point total tonight, to score 19 or more points.
Official Pick: Tyrese Haliburton OVER 18.5 Points (-104)
Play Rating: 3-Star
Additional Plays Considered:
First Half Over 115.5
OKC 1H Team Total OVER 59.5
Indiana 1H Team Total OVER 56.5
Chet Holmgren First Point +550
I bet Chet first point for .25 Units. The rest I played for just 1 Unit. These are not best bets but just the smaller plays I took.
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 7, 2025 | 4:46 P.M. CST
Last Night’s Pick: Winner on Texas Longhorns +115 over Texas Tech. The Longhorns took a 10-0 lead, and cruised to their first ever softball National Title, which means we cruised to an easy winner as well. The market really agreed with me as well, with the Longhorns closing as high as a -140 favorite in some spots. Let’s try to keep the streak going tonight
Current Streak: 4
Tonight’s Best Bet:
The Indiana Fever take on the Chicago Sky for the 2nd time this season tonight in the United Center. The game was moved to the bigger arena (where the Bulls play) anticipating a packed house with Caitlin Clark coming to town. However, Caitlin’s injury has caused ticket prices to plummet, and it’s uncertain whether there will be much of a home court advantage for the Sky tonight. I actually do have a STRONG lean towards Indiana -3.5 in the game. The Fever absolutely anihilated the Sky in their first meeting. However, that meeting was in Indiana and Caitlin Clark was healthy. Now the Fever come in missing Clark and Sophie Cunningham (who also missed the first matchup). They actually had to sign a player to a hardship contract last week after they fell below the 10 active player minimum threshold. All that said, I still think the Fever are the superior team, even with Clark and Cunningham out. So strong lean to the Fever, but that’s not where we are going for our best bet. Instead, we’re going back to the well with some player props.
We’re going to go back to Aliyah Boston and take her to go OVER 13.5 points tonight. Boston comes into this contest averaging 15.6 ppg on the season. Now, in the 3 games Clark has been out, Boston’s production HAS dropped (she’s averaging just 12.3 PPG in that span). However, there are some other factors that have contributed to that, to where I believe there is actually some value on the OVER, despite her lack of scoring the last 3 outings. First off, Boston has a big issue with foul trouble. This is nothing new, but it’s really been bad the last 3 games. She’s committed 14 fouls over the course of those 3 outings (5, 5, & 4), and she has picked up her 3rd foul early in the 2nd quarter, as well as her fourth foul before the halfway mark of the 3rd quarter in ALL THREE GAMES. So, without a doubt she will need to do better than she has lately when it comes to staying out of foul trouble. On a positive note though, she does seem to be aware of it, as she is constantly talking to coaches following foul calls. She also got out of the way multiple times late in the game against the Mystics earlier this week to avoid committing her 5th foul in the 4th quarter. Doing that is beneficial to her and the Fever, because they really need her on the floor to win right now.
The second factor in our favor is that two of the last three games have come against the Washington Mystics. Each game against Washington Boston had just 5 shot attempts. In the other 5 games this season, she’s averaged over 12 shot attempts per game. She is currently shooting an incredibly high percentage this season (67.6%). If she does shoot (in terms of attempts) around her season average, that would give her 16 points (based on her season FG%). It’s quite possible if she DOES stay out of foul trouble, that she takes north of 13 shots. The first matchup against Chicago, Boston finished 8 for 12 with 19 points, 13 rebounds, and 5 blocks. She was dominant on the interior against Angel Reese and Camilla Cardosa. I expect nothing different tonight on the interior, largely because the Sky are delusional enough to think that Angel Reese can guard Aliyah Boston 1 on 1.
Lastly, I took a look at Boston’s poor outings this season (in which she went under this current point total). While Boston does have some down games, she often bounces back from a subpar game with a very good game (specifically in terms of scoring). She’s 2-0 to the over on this number following a game where she scored 10 points or less (she scored 10 last game against the Mystics). In those two games, she averaged 22 PPG (scoring 27 and 17 in each). Additionally, she’s also 2-0 to the over to that number (13.5 points) following a game that she takes 7 shots or less in a game. And, as mentioned previously, 2 of the 3 games she took just 5 shots came against the same team (the Washington Mystics). The only other game Boston struggled was the 3rd game of the season, and it came against the Atlanta Dream. She played just 23 minutes in that game; and while she is definitely prone to foul trouble, they NEED her in the game with Caitlin Clark still sidelined.
Overall, assuming Boston doesn’t get into foul trouble tonight, you are going to see her put up double digit shot attempts. And, you are going to see her have success in the paint against Reese and Cardosa. Let’s back Boston tonight OVER 13.5 points and keep this streak going.
Official Pick: Aliyah Boston OVER 13.5 Points
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Softball World Series Best Bet (6/6/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 6, 2025 | 11:14 A.M. CST
Note: Haven’t had anything I’ve loved the last couple nights so I didn’t post. I do see some value in the “All-Texas” Showdown for the National Championship tonight in college softball, so let’s take a look.
Best Bet: Texas Longhorns +115 vs. Texas Tech
I must admit, I’m not the biggest college softball fan, nor am I a softball fan in general. However, the logic of this number here makes absolutely zero sense. Texas’s star pitcher Teagan Kavan has been nothing short of tremendous in the WCWS. She’s appeared in 5 games in the World Series. She’s a perfect 3-0 as a starter, with one save (in 3 innings in relief), and a 5th appearance last night, recording the final two outs of the game for the Texas defense. Not only is she undefeated, but she has yet to give up a SINGLE EARNED RUN in 5 appearances.
Kavan faces off against probably the most talented pitcher in the country for the Red Raiders, in NiJaree Canady. While Canady has been phenomenal, carrying Texas Tech all the way to a game 3 in the National Championship, she has pitched EVERY SINGLE INNING from the Super Regionals up until this point, including every pitch games 1 and 2 vs. the Longhorns in this series. While it’s not the same as baseball in terms of pitch counts and limits on pitchers, fatigue still plays an issue. While Canady was having to gut out a 1-run (4-3) victory last night to keep the Red Raiders season alive, Kavan was getting some much needed rest. She threw just 12 pitches in relief last night, while Canady has thrown nearly 200 over the course of the first two games. Additionally, Texas’ hitters were starting to figure out Canady late in game 2. And, while Tech was able to hold off the late Horn’s rally, you could see the confidence of the Texas hitters rising, while simultaneously seeing Canady’s fatigue kicking in. They are now asking her to come back out and pitch an entire 7 innings against one of the best teams in the country. It’s just a big ask.
You also factor in the fact that this is Texas’ 3rd trip to the National Championship series in the past 4 years, falling short the first two trips. This one feels different, as the Horns are definitely the BETTER all around team. While I do believe there’s a small chance Canady is able to go the full 7-innings, I don’t think she’s going to be nearly as effective as she would be with a regular days rest. So for that reason, along with the number I don’t know how we don’t take the Horns here. Unless we see 5+ Longhorn errors in this game, I don’t see Texas Tech scoring more than 2-3 runs. And I believe Texas, facing this current fatigued form of Canady, will find success hitting the ball. I could see this somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-1 Texas. So let’s back the Horns here and at a phenomenal price. I doubt this price lasts.
Official Pick: Texas Longhorns (ML) +115
Play Rating: 2-Star
NBA Eastern Conference Finals Best Bet (5/31/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | May 31, 2025 | 3:25 P.M. CST
Yesterday’s Quick Summary: A rocking chair winner with Aliyah Boston OVER 14.5 points last night. Boston came out of the gate on fire, scoring 10 points in the first quarter. However, as I mentioned in the post, she loves to get in foul trouble. She picked up back-to-back fouls (her 2nd and 3rd) with over 7 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter. So instead of having a shot to get there in the first half, Boston was forced to sit the rest of the 1st half. She then picked up her fourth foul midway through the 3rd and sat for an even longer stretch. Now we were able to get there with over 7 minutes to go in the game. But, if Boston had stayed out of foul trouble, we likely get there in the first half, and she probably goes for somewhere north of 20 points. Regardless, a nice sweat-free winner, and we start a new streak!!
Best Bet Tonight:
Indiana Pacers 1st Half Team Total OVER 57.5 (-114)
This is a tremendous spot for a Pacers team that has been an offensive juggernaut in these playoffs. While I don’t think Indiana is a legitimate title contender, they’ve proved to be good enough to run through the East (with a lot of injury luck as well). That said, they are likely the 2nd best offensive team in the playoffs (behind only OKC). And they’ve been particularly good at home. I’ve won 4 times in the playoffs backing the Pacers 1st Half TT Over; it’s all about pick spots, and this is a GREAT one for us to back Indiana.
Through the playoffs as a whole, Indiana has averaged 116.9 points per game (3rd best and 2nd best of the remaining teams behind only OKC). So why are we taking them in the first half? Well let’s break it down. The Pacers have played 15 playoff games this post-season, and they are 8-7 to this number (needing to score at least 58). They are averaging 58.7 points per first half in the playoffs as a whole (61.1 in home games). Neither of those indicate a big edge over a 15 game sample. However, when we dive deeper, we find this specific spot is exactly when the Pacers DO go over early in the game. The Pacers are 5-2 to the OVER to this number in the first halves in home games. Although that’s a small sample size, we have seen them consistently play better early in games at home. Additionally, when the Pacers are coming off a scoring less than 58 in a first half the previous game, they are 5-1 to the over in the first half in the next game. The only time they went UNDER was against Cleveland in game 3 at home. That was a MUST WIN game for Cleveland’s season, and the Pacers came out flat, like they knew they had the series in the bag. And, the Pacers scoring average in first halves goes up to 62.8 points in those games. When you go a step further, TWICE this post season the Pacers have scored LESS than 58 points in a first half AND ALSO lost the game outright. The two games following those performances, the Pacers have come out and LIT IT UP the first half of the following game. Both those games were also at home (which tonight’s game is). They scored 80 and 63 in those two datapoints, easily going over the number we need tonight and averaging a whopping 71.5 points in the first half of those two outings.
So we have a perfect spot here for the Pacers. They also know that this is an absolute MUST WIN for them, as they do NOT want to have to go back to New York for a game 7, having blown a 3-1 series lead. All of the sudden they would be an underdog. And when you think back to game 3, where they held a 21 point first half lead, it would be mentally devastating to try to recover from that and win on the road in a game 7 against Jalen Brunson and company. My model has the Pacers going OVER 57.5 points 73.5% of the time. The implied odds at -114 are 53.3%. So we have a projected edge of +20.2%. That’s quite a massive edge this late in the playoffs. For that reason we are backing the Pacers. And, we are going to make it a 3-star, as that level of an edge is hard to pass up this late in the playoffs.
Official Play: Indiana Pacers First Half Team Total OVER 57.5 (-114)
Play Rating: 3-Star
WNBA Prop Best Bets (5/30/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | May 30, 2025 | 5:14 P.M. CST
Summary:
I’ve not been posting my NBA or WNBA picks here due to being busy with work and not placing large wagers as of late. However, I’ve been on fire to start the season. So I am going to be posting daily picks for my favorite prop bets, sides, and totals for the remainder of the NBA playoffs and the WNBA season. Last year in the WNBA I finished above 70%. Let’s start off a streak tonight.
Best Prop Bet:
Aliyah Boston OVER 14.5 Points (-109)
We’re going to back Aliyah Boston tonight to score 15 or more against the lowly Connecticut Sun. The Sun come into this game 0-5 and they have to play on the road tonight in the most difficult arena to play in the WNBA. Boston is very reliant on Caitlin Clark for her production, and we saw her numbers drop significantly last game with CC out with a quad injury. That said, the Fever are still a much better team than they showed last outing, even with CC sidelined. Additionally, we look at that box score and we see that Dewanna Bonner, who was averaging just 2.5 points per game coming into that game, put up a game-high 25 points. We are very unlikely to see that same level of production tonight. One because she isn’t very good anymore, and two because her scoring wasn’t a recipe for success. Aliyah Boston’s production, on the other hand, tends to be correlated to winning. I believe Stephanie White (new Indiana Head Coach) will make it a point of emphasis to get it to Boston early and often. And, if she can stay out of foul trouble, this is a very favorable matchup for her. The Sun boast the league’s worst interior defense (and defense as a whole). Boston is in for a big night tonight. Sprinkle some on Boston Over 22.5 points (alternate) at +380, as I think we could see her go for 25+ tonight.
Official Play: Aliyah Boston OVER 14.5 Points (-109)
Play Rating: 2-Stars
March Madness Best Bet (3/20/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 20, 2025 | 1:43 P.M. CST
Best Bets:
Best Bet No. 1: BYU -2.5 (-110) vs. VCU
Best Bet No. 2: Yale +7.5 (-110) vs. Texas A&M
Play Ratings (Both): 2-Star
March Madness First Four Best Bets (3/19/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 19, 2025 | 4:44 P.M. CST
Best Bets:
We’re going to break this into two wagers here. We’re going to take Texas +2.5 and Tre Johnson (TEX) Over 19.5 points. Here’s the breakdown of why we’re going to split it into two smaller plays.
Let’s start with Texas. This is quite an inconsistent team; I would know as I’ve watched them play 15+ times this season, and I will admit it can be quite difficult to know what Texas team we are going to see. On the one hand, they have a lot of talent on their roster with a top 3-5 pick in this years NBA draft in Tre Johnson. They also have some solid transfers in Tramon Mark, Arthur Kaluma, & Jordan Pope. Tramon Mark has been especially important as of late. For some reason, Rodney Terry had Mark playing limited minutes for an extended stretch of SEC play. With Mark in the game, the Horns offense has especially improved, as they have averaged over 81 PPG in their last 10 games, most of which includes Mark playing increased minutes (prior to that stretch). Additionally, while I’m not a big Chendell Weaver fan, I will say since the Horns got him back they’ve looked a touch better defensively, and he’s brought a spark off the bench that the Horns had been lacking. Even if you just look at the two wins they had in the SEC tournament (which had Mark playing a lot, and Weaver in the rotation), the Horns outperformed what they did in the regular season in those same matchups. They got beat at Vandy by 8 earlier in the year, but in the SEC tournament they dominated the game from start to finish, leading by as many as 20 in the game. They followed that up knocking off Texas A&M. They split with A&M in the regular season, the first game they were absolutely embarrassed by 20. They won the second game at home by 1, however they trailed by as many as 20 in that game, and were largely outplayed for 35 minutes. They got hot in the second half and had a couple of very fortunate bounces. In the SEC tournament, they LED for the majority of the game with A&M. Even against Tennessee they were able to hang for about 25-30 minutes, before the wheels came off. And also, keep in mind that’s a Tennessee team who took down Auburn the next round. Lastly, the Horns have been battle tested all year. They went 7-10 in Quad 1 games, with wins at Oklahoma and Mississippi State, as well as over Kentucky, Missouri, OU, Vandy, & two over A&M. Xavier on the other hand, playing in a much weaker conference, has been abysmal when stepping up in class. They are a putrid 1-9 vs Quad 1 teams this season. Every single time they stepped up, they got knocked back down.
Now, Xavier is a team that did play well down the stretch, winning 7 in a row before losing in the Big East quarterfinals to Marquette. However, when you look at that stretch of wins, just one of those 7 victories came over teams in the field of 68. That stretch included wins over Depaul, Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler twice, & Providence twice. Providence, who was not good to begin with, also played both those games without their leading scorer, Bryce Hopkins. The lone win over a tournament team was over Creighton at home. And, while they played very well in that game, it still was not a Quad 1 game, as Creighton is outside the top 30 in the NET (38th). They are just a 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament. So, while Xavier might have a better record in that stretch, I’d actually argue that Texas is playing better basketball.
The one thing that concerns me about this game, and the reason I did not make this a BIG 3-4 unit play, is because of one guy: Rodney Terry. He’s one of the worst coaches in the country; he’s probably THE WORST coach at the P5 level. Texas, despite the talent, runs almost NO action to help put their guys in positions to be successful offensively. Essentially, their entire offense is purely 1-on-1 isolations, and pick & roll. Luckily for Terry, Tre Johnson is arguably the best 1v1 player in the entire country. And, Tramon Mark is elite getting downhill 1v1, and that can lead to easy buckets at the rim & sprayed out threes to shooters (which Texas does have). Lastly, though, this is just a pure numbers issue. I made Texas -1.78 in this game. The line for much of the week was +3.5. While I wish I had released this earlier and jumped on Texas at that number, still sitting 2.5 is a very large discrepancy this late in the season, even going through zero. Now, I do a few things unconventionally with my power rankings in terms of game-to-game adjustments (due to the smaller sample sizes we now have in college athletics with all the transfers each year). However, I’ve looked at 4 other groups power numbers, and every single one of them made this a pick'em or had Texas favored. So regardless of who you trust numbers wise, this number is absolutely off. I also would venture to guess that while we did see Xavier money early, the limits opening up and seeing this move back to 2.5 would indicate that 3.5 was too high. I don’t think the public moved this back a full point that early in the day. Regardless, Texas sits +130 right now, which gives them a 43.5% implied probability to win this game. Even if you want to use conservative estimates and say Texas is 50% to win this game, you’re catching a 6.5% edge. We’re going to take the +2.5 instead of the ML, but both are Plus EV plays.
The second part of this is Tre Johnson over 19.5 points (-108). Look, I understand the value in taking prop unders in bigger markets, such as the Super Bowl, the NFL as a whole, and SOMETIMES the NBA if the market gets inflated. However, the college basketball prop market is not something that is widely used and beat up. Because of that, you can often find good spots to back guys. And that’s exactly what this is. So, Tre Johnson is coming into this game averaging 19.8 PPG on the season. As I mentioned, the number we need to go over is 19.5. While he’s only done that in 14 of 31 games this season, he’s done it 6 of his last 10 games. He’s 10-9 to that over since January 11th, however, he’s 6-4 to that over in losses. The reason I mention that is, often times when Texas gets down, they turn to him and let him go 1v1. It would shock me if Texas lost this game by more than 3 AND Tre didn’t get to 20. I think there’s a good chance they win the game AND he gets to 20, but I actually think taking his over is a bit of insurance if Texas doesn’t play well as a group here.
I also want to mention that Texas got 4 days rest. Since January (SEC play essentially), when Texas is coming off 3 or more days of rest, Tre Johnson scored 20 or more 7 of 10 outings, averaging 24.5 PPG in those 10 games. Of the 3 he did not go over 20, he scored less than 16 points only ONCE (7 against OU in his worst shooting performance of the season). So, clearly there is some correlation between fresh legs and how he performs. There’s never a lack of confidence from this kid. It usually has to do with being overworked. His usage rate can be too high at times, and that can lead to progressive fatigue, especially in a conference like the Big East.
Lastly, let’s look at Xavier’s Defense. They are 44th in the country in defensive efficiency (nowhere near elite or even very good). But more than that, I went back and looked at how they performed against opponents top scorers in the recent past, and boy was it ugly. Over their last 12 games, every single game the opponent’s leading scorer exceeded their season average against Xavier. Additionally, 10 of those 12 games the leading scorer went for AT LEAST 20 points. They have been absolutely TORCHED by the opposing team’s best players, specifically when they have been guards. Now Ryan Kalkbrenner (big for Creighton) torched them as well, but the other 10 top scorers were all guards.
Thus, we are going to split this into two one star plays, and back Texas +2.5 and Tre Johnson over 19.5 points in this one. The odds of us losing both are very low, and there is a high chance we cash both.
Official Picks: Texas +2.5 (-110) | Tre Johnson OVER 19.5 Points (-108)
Play Rating: 1-Star
College Basketball Best Bet (3/15/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 15, 2025 | 2:51 P.M. CST
Overall Record: 53-23 (69.7%)
Best Bet: Florida -3 vs. Alabama
Official Pick: Florida -3
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops ML Parlays of the Day (3/14/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 14, 2025 | 7:47 A.M. CST
Moneyline Favorite Parlay of the Day (5-Teams)
1) VCU -715 vs. St. Bonaventure (Estimated Win Probability: 86%)
2) North Texas -1100 vs. Tulsa (Estimated Win Probability: 94%)
3) Memphis -465 vs. Wichita State (Estimated Win Probability: 92%)
4) UC Irvine -550 vs. Cal Poly (Estimated Win Probability: 90%)
5) UC San Diego -625 vs. UCSB (Estimated Win Probability: 95%)
Overall Parlay Estimate Win Probability: 63.59%
Parlay Odds: +107 (48.31% Implied Odds)
Parlay Edge: +15.28%
Moneyline Dog Parlay (7-Teams)
1) St. Louis +110 vs. Loyola Chicago
2) Oregon +235 vs. Michigan State
3) Michigan +130 vs. Purdue
4) Texas +395 vs. Tennessee
5) Marquette +190 vs. St. John’s
6) BYU +280 vs. Houston
7) Boise State +110 vs. New Mexico
Parlay Odds: +75000 (750 to 1)
Wager: $10 to win $7,500
College Hoops Best Bet (3/14/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 14, 2025 | 7:43 A.M. CST
Overall Record: 52-23 (69.3%)
Best Bet: Maryland -1 vs. Illinois
Official Pick: Maryland -1 (-110)
Play Rating: 4-Star
College Hoops Best Bet SEC Tournament (3/13/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 13, 2025 | 5:28 P.M. CST
Overall Record: 51-23 (68.9%)
Best Bet:
With about 5 games left in the season, I saw Missouri as a dark horse team to make a Final Four run. They have really good, big athletic wings. Everyone on the team can shoot it from deep. They rebound well, they had some phenomenal wins on the resumé. However, they lost 4 of their last 5 to end the regular season, including their last 3 games. However, all 4 losses came against tournament teams, and 3 of the 4 came on the road. The lone loss that came at home came against UK where the Wildcats shot the lights out.
Missouri comes into this game elite offensively, despite the losing streak. They are 13th in effective FG% (nationally), including top 30 in both 3-point & 2-point FG%. They average 83.5 PPG on the season as a team. Even in the past 5 games (where they went 1-4) the Tigers scored 83, 84, 93, 101, & 85 (89.2 PPG). So they have been scoring it at a super high level (higher than their season average by far), despite losing 4 of those games. The reason I bring this up is we are going to look to a team total here. Missouri is currently sitting at a team total of 80.5. As previously mentioned they have been scoring at a super high clip all year, and they have been especially good offensively lately. But just that number in itself, the Tigers have gone over 9 consecutive games. While Mississippi State is no slouch defensively, they definitely are not elite. They come into this game just 48th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.
I have seen some sharp money come in on the game over (157.5). However, I just don’t trust Mississippi State’s offense enough to get to their number (77.5). Could this become a complete shootout? Yes, because Missouri can gamble too much defensively and that can lead to a very up and down game. That said, I am just going to go with the team total here. I like what Missouri has done lately, and I like that the sharp money is on the over. I just trust Missouri to get over that number (as they have done nearly every outing as of late) way more than I trust both teams to combine for 157.5. So let’s back Mizzou on their team total. You can find -111. It’s good up to -117
Official Pick: Missouri Team Total OVER 80.5 (-111)
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Conference Tournament Upset of the Day (3/13/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 13, 2025 | 3:57 P.M. CST
Not an official play, but my best ML pick for an upset today over +200
Upset Pick: Iowa +415 vs. Illinois
Iowa is currently catching 10.5 points taking on Illinois. This is a really interesting matchup, and I considered taking Iowa with the points as a best bet, but decided against it. The reason I didn’t take Iowa +10.5 as a best bet is largely due to their lack of rim protection and inability to consistently rebound. Illinois is an elite rebounding team and they CAN be really good at the rim when they want to be. They are 13th in the country in 2 point field goal percentage, and they are especially good at the rim. They also have an NBA lottery pick on their roster in Kasparus Jakucionis.
So overall, here’s the thing. This is a great spot for Iowa when you think about it. Usually teams like Iowa, who are hot in the tournament & face a team off a bye who has been sitting around for multiple days not playing, tend to fare well both SU & ATS. Iowa has basically been in playoff mode for the last two weeks, having to win on the road at Nebraska their final game just to get into the NCAA Tournament. They gave Michigan State all they could handle the game before that, and they then went out and beat Ohio State (who’s season was on the line). So Iowa is playing as good as they have all season, and although they aren’t fully healthy, the players who ARE available currently are finally 100%. The problem is, if Illinois decides they want to pound it inside every single possession and own the paint, they can run away with this game (which is why I’m not taking Iowa +10.5). Iowa is terrible defending the rim, as I mentioned. So they have no shot if Illinois starts going inside at will.
Why take Iowa then? Well the thing is, Illinois does NOT get a ton of their production from 2s, despite the fact that they are one of the most efficient 2-point shooting teams in the country. They actually shoot 2FGs at one of the lowest rates in the entire country (outside the top 300). Instead, this Illinois team LOVES to launch threes. They are WAY above average in terms of 3FG production, and they are 28th in the country in 3FG-rate (meaning they shoot more threes than 90% of the country). You would think a team that 3-point reliant would be at least a decent shooting team. But, that’s not the case. Illinois as a team shoots 31.0% from three, which is good for 320th in the country (364 Division 1 Teams).
So, while Illinois theoretically SHOULD go inside, knowing that if they do, they will likely run away with this game, they just have not played that style all season long. They just LOVE shooting threes. And if they fall in love with the three here, Iowa is a live dog. Iowa is GOING to score here. As I mentioned they’ve been playing and shooting it very well as of late. That said, they are also the 2nd most efficient offense in the Big 10 overall on the season. So, you have a very good offense, who is in a good rhythm. I estimate that Iowa has about a 30% chance to win this game overall. If Illinois plays the style they have all year and starts launching threes at a high rate, that probability could increase closer to the high 30s. And when you look at the number, you are getting 4.15 to 1 on your money to back Iowa ML. That’s just too good of a price. That’s essentially an edge of 10.5% to back Iowa here. So we’re going to do that. Like I said above, it’s not an official play, but it’s worth 1/4th or 1/5th of a unit.
Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes (+415)
Play Rating: N/A
College Basketball Conference Tournament Best Bet (3/11/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 11, 2025 | 9:59 P.M. CST
I haven’t had many best bets this past week, as conference tournaments tend to be more unpredictable. Remember, when you get to the tournament you feel the need to fire on everything because there are so many options; but pick your spots. Don’t force anything, especially if you’ve been tailing my plays. We’ve had a phenomenal year, so we are going to be very careful to pick our spots and keep our win % and profit margin high as we close out the season.
Below I’m going to give my best bet for the conference tournament winner
Conference Tournament Best Bet:
Tournament: Big 10 Tournament
My Pick: Maryland +370
Analysis: Look this Maryland team is one of the more dangerous teams in the country heading into March Madness. I really like the balance this team shows. They are top 35 in KenPom in both adjusted offensive efficiency (34th) and adjusted defensive efficiency (9th). However, if you look at how this offense has been trending over their last 10 games, they are very close to a top 10 offense. With the exception of one poor showing against Michigan State, they’ve been great on the offensive side the last 10 games. They’ve also been solid in road and neutral games this season, going 7-5 in such contests. They come into this tournament ranked 13th in the KP and 10th in the NET. So all the metrics consider this team one of the best 10 teams in the country, which tells me they are not only live to win this tournament, but to get to a Final Four come late March. Additionally, the Terps are very balanced on the offensive end in their style of play. They are top 100 in the country in both 3FG% (37th) and 2FG% (98th). Not only are they efficient across the board, but their point distribution is near the middle of the pack at every level (3s, 2s, & FT Line), meaning they aren’t heavily reliant on any one area. They can beat you a multitude of ways; this isn’t a team that you can say “okay if we slow them down in this area, we have a good shot to win.”
The Terps come into this tournament 24-7. Of those 7 losses, not a single one has come by more than 6 points, and 3 of those 7 losses have come by a single possession. Their average margin of defeat in those 7 losses is just 3.9 PPG (losses by: 4, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, & 2). So NOBODY has blown this team out all season, and you have to go all the way back to January 5th to find a team game they lost by more than one possession (Jan. 5th at Oregon, lost by 4). They come into this tournament winning 11 of their last 13 games (all in Big 10 play).
So you have a team who is coming into this tournament healthy, in great form, very balanced, and with a deep roster poised to make a deep March run. Then we look at their path to the Big 10 Title. And, that is where I just really like this. They are the 2-seed in this tournament, so they already received a “Double-Bye” into the Quarter Finals. Their first game will come against Iowa, Ohio State, or Illinois. Ohio State is the only one of those teams who beat Maryland in the regular season, and it came in Columbus, by 3 (a game Maryland led for 35 minutes and lost on a banked in Bruce Thornton 3 with 10 seconds left). I believe it will likely be Illinois, but regardless neither of those 3 teams have above a 20% chance to beat Maryland on a neutral floor. That leads us into the Semi-Finals, which would likely be against Purdue or Michigan. Both those teams are reeling as of late, and while public perception may be that those two teams are contenders in March, nothing could be farther from the truth. Maryland will be at least a 4.5 point favorite against either team. That leads us to the Big 10 Championship which is LIKELY to be Michigan State. Now, if the title game is against anyone other than MSU, Maryland is going to be a decent sized favorite in that game. If it is MSU, I really believe Maryland would have that game circled. The last time the two met, Michigan State shocked the Terps on a Tre Holloway half court buzzer beater. A game, that really swung the Big 10 Regular Season Title in Sparty’s favor. If it does come down to Maryland MSU, we’ll be holding a +370 ticket, when you probably won’t be able to grab anything better than +120 pre-game. And, my numbers would have Maryland (including the SPOT) as a 1 point favorite.
So, all that said, our best bet is going to be the Maryland Terrapins to WIN the Big 10 Tournament at +370 odds (you can play to +350). Keep in mind, you could do a rolling parlay and just take Maryland ML every round. If we see all the favorites advance, you’re looking at closer to +430 (based on my projections). However, it’s a risk, because if we get some big upsets, Maryland could end up being a bigger favorite than expected, which could drastically reduce those rolling parlay odds. I’m just going to back the terps to win the tournament. But you do have that option if you’d prefer to go that route. Either way, our wager is the same in what we need to have happen to WIN.
Official Pick: Maryland to win Big 10 Tournament (+370)
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Best Bet 2 (3/5/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 5, 2025 | 6:44 P.M. CST
Same as the other - non official but maybe play as one unit.
Best Bet:
Ole Miss +3 (-110) vs. Tennessee
Play Rating: Non-Official
College Hoops Best Bets (3/5/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 5, 2025 | 5:27 P.M.
Sorry for the late post but here’s my play for the earlier games. I haven’t posted the smaller non-official plays lately, but here’s one I like tonight. I won both I played last night. So maybe play it as a 1 unit
Best Bet:
Alabama -2 (-110) 1H vs Florida
Play Rating: Non-Official
Moneyline Parlay of the Day (3/4/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 4, 2025 | 4:27 P.M.
We nailed our last one, so now 1-1 on the ML Favorite Parlays since posting them (6-2 overall since I started the experiment).
Moneyline Favorites Parlay (5-Teams)
1) Creighton -490 vs. Seton Hall: Creighton is a weird team, and they’ve had an up and down year. However, they have plenty of talent on that roster. Seton Hall does not. They are one of the worst power 5 teams I’ve seen in the last half-decade. This should be closer to -1000, but they have to correlate it with the line
Win Probability: 89.9%
2) Memphis -425 @ UTSA: I actually haven’t hated what I’ve seen out of UTSA the last month. They haven’t won a lot of games, but they’ve been close in a ton of games. The problem is, they can hang (talent wise) with everyone else in the conference. But the talent gap here between them and Memphis is massive. Additionally, even though this is UTSA’s last home game, they already had Senior Night a few nights ago. And, they went out and won that game to break a long losing streak. That was the big one they wanted. This is a bad spot, and they are completely outmatched.
Win Probability: 85.4%
3) Purdue -700 vs. Rutgers: Purdue seems to have gotten on track lately. This game is at home in Mackey Arena, where the Boilermakers have been virtually unbeatable the last couple seasons. They have lost a couple times there this year, but not to a team the quality of Rutgers. Worst case scenario, Dylan Harper & Ace Bailey play phenomenal and it’s close late, and the crowd wills Purdue to a victory. Best case scenario, Purdue jumps on them early and runs away with it. Either way, there’s a very low probability Purdue drops a home game here.
Win Probability: 86.7%
4) Boise State -1500 @ Air Force: Even if you just extrapolate out odds of Air Force winning ANY game in conference this season, you are sitting at roughly 6% (1-17). Yes, it’s on the road, but not in a hostile environment. And Boise State knows they CANNOT drop this game if they want to go dancing. They are squarely on the bubble and a loss to Air Force would knock them out for good. They will be focused tonight, and they will take care of Air Force easily.
Win Probability: 95.6%
5) Colorado State -1600 vs. San Jose State: Colorado State is playing as good, if not better, than anyone in the MW right now. They have won 5 straight, and 10 of their last 12. The only losses in that stretch came at New Mexico and at Utah State, the two best teams in the conference. San Jose State hasn’t been terrible, but they lost to this CSU team by 22 at home over a month ago. Now, they have to go to CSU who is playing for seeding in the MW tourney and trying to play themselves into the NCAA Tournament conversation. It’s tough to play on the road against CSU for good teams in the MW. San Jose State is not great. This will be an easy win for CSU
Win Probability: 94.3%
Parlay Edge:
Parlay Win Probability: 60.0%
Parlay Odds: -108 (51.9%)
Edge: +8.1%
Moneyline Parlay of the Day
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 1, 2025 | 4:01 P.M. CST
I started posting these the other day. They started off as an experiment (still are), but I started 5-1 with them, so I decided to post them for fun. They are NOT an official play like my best bets. They are more of something you could play for a few extra bucks for fun. I come up with 3-5 teams (sometimes more) that combined have greater than 60% chance of winning. For that to be profitable the juice can’t be hire than -150. So the highest juice I will give out on one of these is -150. I would say on average the juice is going to be closer to -110 (52.4% to break even). Our edge is greater, the greater the spread between the juice and the overall probability of winning all 3-5 games. Meaning, if we have a 65% probability of winning, and the juice is 10% (-110), then we have an edge of +12.6% (65%-52.4%). That edge would be greater, than say a 70% chance of winning at -150 juice, which would be a +10.0% edge (70% win probability minus 60% breakeven point for -150 juice). So I will try to provide you with my calculated edge, in case you are playing these. That way you can gauge how strong the play is. Again, don’t play these as a regular best bet. But you may throw a few extra bucks more on a parlay that I give at a 15% edge vs. one that I give at a 5% edge. Okay, enough explaining; the plays are below.
Moneyline Favorite Parlay Picks:
1) Iowa State -275 vs. Arizona: This is a ranked vs. ranked matchup, but I actually think the line is significantly low. Because Iowa State hasn’t been in great form lately, I didn’t pull the trigger on them as a best bet at -5.5. But I DO think they’ll cover that number. Arizona has been putrid lately. They were not good to start the year, but got hot in the middle of conference play. However, the Wildcats are just 2-4 over their last 6 games. Iowa State is one of the best home teams in the country. They carried a 29-game home winning streak prior to losing to K-State at home a couple weeks ago. And, lastly the spot is great; ISU needs this win to get back on track. And, the first time these teams played Arizona hit a 3/4ths court shot to send the game to overtime. They went on to win the game in the extra period. ISU has had this one circled for a while.
Win Probability: 83.8%
2) Baylor -1000 vs. Oki State: This one is simple. While OKST has played better over the second half of conference play, they are NOT a good basketball team. They have no tournament aspirations, and they are a TERRIBLE road team. The Pokes have lost 8 straight road games in conference play, and have not won a game on the road all year in the Big 12. They also have not won back-to-back games in Big 12 play all year, and they come into this game off a big home upset of Iowa State. Baylor, on the other hand, has been reeling as of late. Once a top 15 ranked team, they have dropped all the way to a projected 9-seed in the Big Dance. Their last two games are at TCU and home against Houston (both games they will be an underdog more than likely). If they lose this game at home to a bad Oki State team, they could be in serious danger of missing the tournament. They have to much talent on that roster and Scott Drew is too good a coach to have that happen. There’s a high probability they secure a home victory tonight.
Win Probability: 84.5%
3) St. Mary’s -900 vs. Oregon State: St. Mary’s has been elite this year in conference play. They are 16-1, undefeated at home in WCC games, and they are undefeated at home through the entirety of conference play (8-0). They already beat Oregon State by double digits on the road. This St. Mary’s team is for real. They will have no trouble at home, and they’ll finish off their final home game in style, taking care of the Beavers easily.
Win Probability: 93.1%
4) BYU -600 vs. West Virginia: These are two teams headed in opposite directions. WVU has been reeling since the loss of their best player, Tucker DeVries, and they are very likely to miss the NCAA Tournament. BYU on the other hand is playing their best ball of the season. They’ve won 5 straight games, including a dominating home win over the Kansas Jayhawks by 34 points. They also went into Arizona and knocked off the Wildcats in last weekend. Playing at BYU is tough enough. But add that the game is at night, and the fact that BYU is playing well and this is an impossible spot for WVU, who already lost AT HOME to this Cougars team a couple weeks back. WVU also has not won a road game since February 2nd, when they won at Cinci. This will be an easy win for the Cougars, as they will continue to climb up that seed line in the Big Dance.
Win Probability: 89.2%
Parlay Edge:
4-Team Parlay Odds: -106 (B.E. Point = 51.46%)
Overall Win Probability: 58.81%
Overall Edge: +7.35%
College Hoops Best Bets (3/1/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 1st, 2025 | 1:13 P.M. CST
Overall Record: 49-23 (68.1%)
Best Bets:
1) TCU -3.5 vs. UCF
2) Vandy +2.5 vs. Missouri
Both Plays: 2-Stars