NFL Sunday Best Bets (11/2/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 2, 2025 | 12:34 A.M. CST

Last Week: 4-1

Best Bets Today:

2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Detroit Lions -2.5 | New England Patriots +1

Play Rating: 2-Stars

NFL Sunday Best Bets (10/26/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 26, 2025 | 2:20 A.M. CST

Note: We were 2-1 yesterday in college, which brings us to 8-3 the last 3 weeks. We have been heating up in NFL and college. Let’s keep it going today, because I LOVE the slate!!

Best Bets:

1) New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals OVER 44.5: This number is way too low. The Bengals have one of the worst defenses in football. The Jets when playing on the road have FLOWN over this total. The last two weeks are easy to look at and think this game could go under. But, one of those games was in London, and the other was the week after the London game when teams traditionally are jet lagged, and play horrible. So if you throw those two games out, this number looks really short. The Bengals played an absolute shootout last week. Now that Joe Flacco is under center, I love this offense. And the Jets defense on the road has been significantly worse. Give me the over here, I think it goes over by multiple scores. This is my favorite play of the day.

3-Stars

2) Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos OVER 51: If the Broncos recapture any of their offensive explosion from the 4th quarter of last week, this game could see absolute fireworks. The Cowboys offense has proven they can score on absolutely anyone. The Packers came in week 3 as the best pass defense in football, and Dak absolutely torched them for 40 points. The Cowboys defense has looked slightly better the last couple weeks, but they are still not great. And I think the Broncos are rightly favored here. I don’t see how this isn’t a shootout. Give me the over here as well.

2-Stars

3) Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 45: I love overs this week. And we’re going to go with one more in the Sunday night game. The Steelers are the 28th ranked defense in the NFL, despite the fact that they are somehow 4-2. The Packers looked to be one of the best defenses in the league early on, but the last few weeks they’ve looked extremely vulnerable, especially against the pass. I think Rodgers will have plenty of success here in the are, in this revenge game. Give me the over, in what I think is going to look like a very short number by late Sunday night.

2-Stars

4) 2 Team Teaser: Bills -1 | Chiefs -5.5: Bills are going to win by 3+ scores. And, while I don’t like going through only one key number, I don’t see a world where the Chiefs don’t win by 7+ at home, in primetime, against a team with a losing record, without their star QB. This is my top teaser of the week.

2-Stars

5) 2 Team Teaser: Bears +8.5 | Saints +9.5: I love the Saints leg here. They’ve not lost at home by more than 8 all season, while the Bucs have not won a road game by more than that number all year. These teams are divisional rivals, and they tend to play close games. The Bears leg I don’t love as much, but I’m fading the Ravens run defense here in a game where they are starting a backup QB. That’s a tall task, and I’m going to play the numbers.

2-Stars

College Football Best Bets Saturday (10/25/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 25, 2025 | 9:41 A.M. CST

Note: We’re 6-2 the last 2 weeks in CFB. We’re starting to heat up, so let’s see if we can keep it going. 3 best bets below!!

Best Bets:

1) Kansas State +3.5 @ Kansas: I’m shocked the Wildcats are a dog here. They haven’t lost to Kansas in 18 years. The streak continues, as the records don’t indicate the true difference between these two teams. Avery Johnson and company will roll here. Take the Wildcats plus the points, but they win outright.

2) Vanderbilt -2.5 vs. Missouri: The disrespect the market gives Vanderbilt on a weekly basis baffles me. They should be a 5.5 point favorite here, and we are laying less than a FG at home. It’s absolutely wild that they refuse to accept that Vandy is actually a legit football team. Missouri isn’t bad at all, but this is a tough spot, on the road for a second straight week after losing a tough fought game against Bama last week. Give me Vandy until the market adjusts every week.

3) LSU +2.5 vs. Texas A&M: By the numbers, LSU should be a dog. But I’m going to play the spot and situation here. A&M has beaten nobody all year, and LSU’s season are on the line. The injuries for the Tigers do scare me, but not enough to keep me off LSU at night. Brian Kelly SUCKS, but one place he doesn’t suck is at night at home in Death Valley. Give me LSU and the points here, and I think they win outright and save their season and Kelly’s job (at least for one more week).

All Plays: 2-Star

College Football Friday Best Bet (10/24/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 24, 2025 | 5:17 A.M. CST

Best Bet: Virginia Tech -5 vs. Cal

At first glance, this line is pretty crazy. Virginia Tech comes into this game as one of the most disappointing teams in the country. A lot of people saw the Hokies has a legitimate ACC contender this season, but they got off to an abysmal start, losing their first 3 games. They hit rock bottom week 3 after getting spanked 45-26 against Old Dominion at home! Following that game, Justin Feunte (head coach of VT) was fired, and rightfully so. I have no problem throwing that game out when looking at this VT team, as they clearly quit on their head coach at that point. Since the coaching change the Hokies have gone 2-2, including an outright win as a 9 point underdog at NC State. They have dropped their last two games, but they were competitive in both, and one of those losses came on the road against undefeated #7 Georgia Tech. Cal, on the other hand, has had a surprising start to the season, coming into this matchup 5-2 and 2-1 in the ACC. That said, they have played one of the easier schedules in the country. Their 5 wins have come against Oregon State, Texas Southern, Minnesota, Boston College, and North Carolina. Minnesota is the only team Cal’s beaten in the top 75 in my power rankings. The other 4 are 4 of the worst teams in the country. Last week against a bad North Carolina team, the Golden Bears escaped with a 3 point win, only because a UNC wide receiver fumbled the ball on the one yard line, going into score in the final minute of the game. North Carolina likely wins that game by 4 if the receiver hangs onto the ball. Additionally, their only two road games this season have come against two very poorly ranked teams (SDSU and Boston College). They lost the SDSU game 34-0 and beat Boston College 28-24. Now they head into an environment on a Friday night that is much more difficult to play in than their two previous road games, Assuming the VT crowd shows up, a night game in Blacksburg is one of the more difficult places to play in college football. In addition to all of that, the overall talent gap between these two teams is quite significant. And, lastly I love the spot for VT here in a nationally televised game on a Friday night, coming off a bye. Despite the fact that Cal is 5-2 and VT is having a disastrous season, the Hokies opened as a short favorite and have been bet all the way up to 5. We’ve seen significant pro money on the Hokies pushing this number up, and that one way traffic is continuing through Friday morning. Let’s back the Hokies here, and it’s good at anything less than a touchdown,

Official Pick: Virginia Tech -5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

NFL Best Bets (10/19/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 19, 2025 | 8:37 A.M. CST

Best Bets:

1) Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins:

The Miami Dolphins are an absolute dumpster fire this season, and it’s only trending down. Mike McDaniel is one bad loss away from losing his job, and the players don’t seem to care one bit. They already have multiple key injuries on the defensive side, and they lost Tyreek Hill for the season a few weeks ago. They come into this game 1-5. The Browns come into the game 1-5 as well, but they’ve actually been phenomenal defensively this season. The issue has been on the offensive end. I am happy to throw out last week’s loss, as they were coming back from London, which is always a tough spot. While I don’t love Dillon Gabriel (in fact I think he’s awful), I actually prefer him going against this pathetic Miami defense, over Tua going against this top 5 Browns defense. Additionally, I love this spot due to the weather. It’s supposed to be nasty in Cleveland today, and we should see tons of rain. That’s a recipe for DISASTER for Tua. He’s always struggled against elite defenses. And he’s always struggled in weather. We’re getting BOTH of these today. This is one of my favorite spots of the year. Let’s back the Browns and lay anything less than a field goal.

Official Pick: Browns -2.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 4-Star

2) Philadelphia Eagles -1 @ Minnesota Vikings

I don’t typically like taking short road favorites like this, but I’m okay doing it here for two reasons. One, I love the Eagles coming off two consecutive losses. While I don’t think they are the same team they were last year, I do think they BELIEVE they are just as good. And that means we are going to get a very motivated team who does not want to lose 3 straight. I believe we get a really focused effort from Jalen Hurts and the passing game. Secondly, I love this spot because I love fading Carson Wentz off a good performance. Wentz is one of the most inconsistent players in the league, and he almost never has multiple good outings in a row. I think he’s due for some regression here. While the Eagles defense hasn’t been great, they are opportunistic, and it wouldn’t surprise me here to see Wentz commit some turnovers and negative plays. I don’t love this as much as I love the Browns today, but I do think this is a good spot for Phili, and I think the Eagles off two straight losses will bounce back and find a way to get a win here. Note that the line has dropped from 2.5 all the way to 1, so we definitely have some value now getting this at essentially a pick’em.

Official Pick: Eagles -1 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

3) Detroit Lions -6 vs. Tampa Bay Bucs

The Bucs come into this game with a 5-1 record, a game ahead of the Lions in the NFC, but the 4-2 Lions are clearly the better overall football team. The Bucs have been phenomenal in close games, winning each of their first 3 games on the final play of the game. Baker Mayfield has been nothing short of fantastic thus far this season, but there’s only so much he can do as the injuries continue to pile up. Chris Godwin will be out Monday night. Emeka Egbuka and Mike Evans are both dealing with hamstring injuries and are questionable for tomorrow night. If either (or both) do go, who knows how healthy they will actually be. Not to mention, the risk of re-injury for both with that type of injury is very high. You’d imagine any tweak of the hamstring for either guy would lead the Bucs to sit them the rest of the game. The Lions also come into this game in a good spot. They are coming off a loss to the Chiefs last week, a game they were thouroughly outplayed start to finish. They will be looking to bounce back here, and Dan Campbell off a loss has been great as a head coach in Detroit. This Lions team lost week 1 against the Green Bay Packers on the road (same as last week), then came back week 2 and absolutely spanked the Chicago Bears. The Lions were 6 points favorites in that game and won 52-21. While I don’t think the Lions are going to win by 30, I do think they have a distinct advantage in this one. If the Bucs were totally healthy, I still think the Lions should be around a 5.5 to 6 point favorite. But, the Bucs are NOT healthy, and I don’t believe this line is fully indicitive of the current rosters trotting out there Monday night. This line really should be at least 7. I could argue (if Egbuka and Evans both don’t go) that it could even be 7.5 or 8. That said, even if both of those guys end up playing, I think we are getting value here laying anything less than a touchdown. The Lions offense should have their way with a Bucs defense that relies on the blitz more than any other defense in football. There are too many weapons for the Lions, and the O-Line is too good. Plus, the Lions have had an extra day to prepare for the Bucs blitz packages, with this game being on Monday Night. I LOVE the Lions in this spot, so let’s lay the 6. Even if it gets to 6.5 I still like it a lot. The only number I wouldn’t actually lay is 7, but there’s 6 across the board out there right now.

Official Pick: Lions -6 (-110)

Play Rating: 4-Star

Slobberknocker Sports Picks (Week 8)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 18, 2025 | 10:35 A.M. CST

Picks

Dylan’s Bet Your Baby Bets:

• TCU -2.5 vs. Baylor

• Vanderbilt -2.5 vs. LSU

• Wyoming @ Air Force OVER 57.5

• Auburn +1.5 vs. Missouri

Uncle T’s Total of the Week:

• UNLV @ Boise State OVER 63.5

Uncle T’s DD Dog of the Week:

• Mississippi State +9.5 (+290) @ Florida

College Football Best Bets (10/18/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 18, 2025 | 10:29 A.M. CST

Best Bets:

1) TCU -2.5 vs. Baylor

Play Rating: 3-Star

2) Vanderbilt -2.5 vs. LSU

Play Rating: 3-Star

3) Wyoming @ Air Force OVER 57.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

4) Auburn +1.5 vs. Missouri

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Football Best Bets (10/18/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 18, 2025 | 2:51 A.M. CST

Best Bets (Saturday)

Wyoming @ Air Force OVER 57.5

Air Force holds one of the worst defenses in the country this season. Contrary to traditional service academy teams this Air Force team has one of the highest total points per game averages in the country. Despite the fact that Air Force has had all 6 of their games reach 62 points, the market refused to adapt. We still saw totals in the 50s for most Air Force games. Last week, the market finally adjusted and we saw Air Force & UNLV’s total at 65.5. And, how many points did that game see? 99. 

This week the Falcons take on one of the slower, least potent offenses in the country in the Wyoming Cowboys. When you look at the entirety of Wyoming’s season this total makes sense. Even with Air Force playing in these shootouts, Wyoming’s totals were equally low their first 3 games. However, the last 3 games the Cowboys have played, the average total has been 56 points. Air Force games have an average total of 78.3 points per game this season, and that number climbs to 81 points per game the last 3 weeks. 

While I don’t think Wyoming’s offense is great, they won’t have to be against Air Force. Just last week, the Cowboys put up 28 points against San Jose State. SJSU is much closer in talent level to Air Force’s defense than any other team the Cowboys have seen this season. And, I think if we even just get in the 20s from Wyoming, we go flying over this total. I wouldn’t be shocked if this one turned into a shootout. 

I’m of the motto, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it for this Air Force team. I’ve bet the over 4 consecutive weeks, and it’s resulted in 4 wins. All 6 of Air Force’s games this season have gone over the total. Until I see an Air Force game go under the total this season, I will continue backing the over. 

Official Pick: Wyoming @ Air Force OVER 57.5 

Play Rating: 2-Stars

Vanderbilt -2.5 vs. LSU 

Vanderbilt’s only loss this season came at Alabama, who now looks like one of the best teams in the country. While the final score of that game indicated Alabama dominated, nothing could be further from the truth. In the 2nd quarter, Vanderbilt led 7-0 and was threatening to score again inside the Alabama 20 yard line. Quarterback Diego Pavia slid on a QB run, but lost the football. His shin was clearly on the turf prior to losing the football, but somehow after an official review, the ball was awarded to the Crimson Tide. They took that turnover and turned it into 7 points, completely flipping the game. Vandy actually took the lead back 14-7 with under a minute to play in the first half, and one big mistake led to Bama going the length of the field in under 50 seconds to once again tie the game. Late in the game, Vandy trailed by 9 and was threatening to score and cut it 2. Although they likely would’ve lost the game still at this point, the final score would’ve been much closer. Instead, Pavia threw a pick. And, on the following possession, Bama broke a touchdown run on a third down to score and cover the spread. Not only was it a brutal beat, but it gave a completely misguided picture of how that game went. Bama was the better team, but not by much. The game was in Tuscaloosa, and the Tide had the revenge factor on their side after getting upset last year in Nashville. If two plays or one call go the other way in that game, Vandy has a legitimate shot to pull the upset. If that’s the case, what’s the line in this game then? What’s Vanderbilt ranked at this point in that case? 

Then we look at LSU. The Tigers have really been disappointing this season. While they went into Death Valley and took down the top 5 (at the time) ranked Clemson Tigers, that win has aged quite poorly. The Tigers also have two ugly conference wins at home, at night this season, in games that they likely lose on a neutral field or on the road. They easily could’ve lost to Florida, but 5 DJ Lagway interceptions, and a phantom holding call on a 95 yard TD pass by Florida allowed LSU to escape with a 20-10 win. They did the exact same thing last week against South Carolina, who was in the game from start to finish, but penalties, turnovers, and miscues led to LSU finding a way to win by double digits again. 

When you look at these two teams, the truth of the matter is Vanderbilt has been the better team this season. They’ve been more dominant in their wins, and they also looked better in their loss. Additionally, LSU is coming off back to back close, tough games with a loss at Ole Miss and a win over South Carolina. Vanderbilt on the other hand, is coming off a bye. They had to sit on that Bama loss for two weeks, while they got to prepare for LSU coming to town. Now, does Vandy have a big home field advantage here? No. But they should be bigger than a field goal favorite. I made this 4.5. Additionally, what they do have is the better QB (yes, Pavia is a better college QB than Garrett Nussmeier). And, they have BY FAR the better coach in Clark Leigh. Brian Kelly hasn’t been good for a while. I think Vandy is ready to roll here, and I think they jump on LSU early, lean on the ground game, and run away with this one late. Back the Commodores to earn another program defining win over a top 10 LSU team. 

Official Pick: Vanderbilt -2.5 

Play Rating: 2-Stars

Additional Best Bets: 

TCU -2.5 vs. Baylor: TCU coming off a loss here, and I think they are the better team. Baylor is 4-2, but could easily be 3-3. Two weeks ago they trailed by 6, with K-State driving in Baylor territory with under 5 minutes to play. A field goal likely seals the win for the Wildcats, and Avery Johnson throws a horrific pick six which allowed Baylor to escape with a 1 point win. I think TCU is the slightly better team, with the slightly better defense. Coming off a loss they should be ready to go here, knowing they MUST win to stay in the Big 12 title race. Baylor is coming off an emotional win, and this is a classic let down spot after winning a game they shouldn’t have won. Sawyer Robertson has been phenomenal, but Baylor is overvalued based on results rather than numbers. Give me TCU in this favorable spot. 

Official Pick: TCU -2.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Stars

Washington +6 @ Michigan: I would love Washington over a field goal at home, because I think they’re a live dog, even on the road. The Maryland result slightly scares me, considering they trailed by 20 in the 4th quarter and somehow found a way for a miracle comeback. Despite that, Michigan is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Based on their results, if you removed their name and changed it to Northwestern, they never would be sitting here as a 6 point favorite. I think Sheron Moore is one of the worst coaches in the country. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see him out after this season (for sure after next season). Washington’s defense is very good, and they do just enough offensively to give themselves a chance to win the game outright. Catching over a field goal as a live dog, we will back the Huskies in this one on the road. 

Official Pick: Washington +6 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Stars

Auburn +1 vs. Missouri (1H): This one is ugly. I mean it’s REAL UGLY. But this is one I can’t pass up. Auburn is 0-3 in SEC play. They’ve actually been the worst team in the SEC over the past 5 seasons, and under Hugh Freeze, it’s been an absolute disaster. Missouri, on the other hand, has been a pleasant surprise in that same timeframe, competing in the SEC and consistently finding themselves in the top 15. All that said, Auburn has not been horrible this season. They hung with Oklahoma, and had a lead in the second half earlier in the season on the road. If it weren’t for a late Jackson Arnold fumble they cover that game easily. Last week, the led Georgia 10-0 at halftime, before imploding in the second half. Missouri is coming off a close loss to Bama at home in what was their Super Bowl. Now, they have to get up to go on the road to 0-3 Auburn. So why are they only a 1.5 point favorite? Because it’s hard to win in the SEC, especially on the road. This game is also at night. Auburn has found a way to get leads in some of these games, but blown it in the second half, so even though I like Auburn full game, let’s back them +1 in the first half. 

Official Pick: Auburn +1.5 1st Half (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Stars

South Carolina +5.5 vs. Oklahoma: This is the Gamecocks season here. Their back is against the wall, after a 3-3 start. If you remember last season, South Carolina was in this exact spot, sitting 3-3, not playing good football. Then something clicked, and they rattled off 6 straight wins to close the season. They finished 9-3 and just two spots away from reaching the college football playoff. You know that’s all the talk in the locker room is Columbia, SC this week. On the other hand, OU was given a dose of reality last week against their arch rival in the Texas Longhorns. That reality is that they are nowhere near a top 5 team in the country. The schedule only gets tougher after this week. Additionally, they have Bama on deck, followed by Ole Miss, and Texas A&M. This is by far the easiest game they have on their schedule, and after that Texas loss it would be easy to overlook the Gamecocks. Lastly, John Mateer looked nowhere near 100% last week. The injury to his throwing thumb looked to affect his accuracy, leading to three interceptions. I’m going to fade him, Venables, and the Sooners here, as I think South Carolina pulls the outright upset. 

Official Pick: South Carolina +5.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Stars

Slobberknocker Sports Pick’Em Show Best Bets

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 11, 2025 | 2:07 A.M. CST

Note: Normally we post our show on YouTube, but due to technical difficulties we couldn’t get it out, so here are our picks for the week that we normally deliver on the show.

Slob Pod Pick’Em Show Picks & Bets:

Uncle T’s Dog of the Week: Temple +290 (+9.5) vs. Navy

Uncle T’s Total of the Week: New Mexico/Boise State OVER 56.5

Dylan’s Bet Your Baby Bets: Kansas +14.5 @ Texas Tech | USC -2.5 vs. Michigan | BYU -1 @ Arizona | Indiana @ Oregon UNDER 55.5

Voodoo Ranger Parlay of the Week: Kansas +14.5 | USC -2.5 | New Mexico Boise State OVER 56.5 (6 to 1)

College Football Best Bets (10/11/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 11, 2025 | 2:01 A.M. CST

Best Bets:

1) Kansas +14.5 @ Texas Tech: This is one where the number is just off. Yes, Tech has looked good so far this season. They’re a perfect 5-0, and they are coming off back to back 20+ point road wins over Utah and Houston (both of which were undefeated at time of the matchup). However, Tech has yet to face a team in the top 35 of my power rankings. Utah has proved to be a fraud so far this season. Houston’s record is deceiving (they just hadn’t played anyone). And, Oregon State, Kent State, and Arkansas Pine-Bluff are 3 of the worst teams in the country. Kansas is a top 35 team on the other hand. And, while they are not an ELITE football team, they do have talent (especially on the offensive end) to keep up with Texas Tech. Kansas comes into the game 4-2, but their first loss of the season against Missouri is deceiving. They lost by 11, and failed to cover, but the Jayhawks led that game 21-6, and squandered the lead before halftime. They also led by 3 with under 6 minutes to play and had Mizzou in a 4th and 9 on their own side of the field. If Kansas gets a stop on that play they have a 90%+ chance to win that game outright. Instead, Missouri converted before going down and scoring. And a late garbage time TD ended in a loss and a brutal bad beat for Kansas backers +7. Their second loss came at home to Cincinnati, which is looking better and better, as the Bearkats are currently 2-0 in the Big 12 after absolutely dominating top 15 Iowa State last week. This could be a spot where the Jayhawks are a public dog, and they just get absolutely smashed from the jump. If that’s your reason backing Tech I can’t argue. I just can’t get to this number. Even in the highest variance power rankings, Tech is a 7 point favorite on a neutral. I make Tech 5.8 on a neutral. Again, the most you could give Tech in a night game is 4 points (and that’s kind of wild to be honest). Meaning, at the absolute highest Tech should be an 11 point favorite here. And we’re catching 14 and a hook. The real number I make this game is right around 9. So we’re going through two key secondary numbers. Give me the Jayhawks and the value in this spot, even if it turns out to be a public dog. I’d be shocked to not at least have a shot at a backdoor cover late. I think the Jayhawks are a rare 14+ point LIVE DOG.

Official Pick: Kansas +14.5 (-110)

2) USC -2.5 vs. Michigan: This is a good spot for USC. They went into Illinois a few weeks ago as a 7 point favorite, and lost outright. Lincoln Riley continues to disappoint when traveling west in the Big 10. However, he’s been much better at home in Southern California. Last year in this same spot, coming off a loss and going into a bye week, they were just 4-5 facing off against Nebraska and won that game 28-20 (and covered). In fact, under Lincoln Riley, when USC has 8 or more days to prepare in the regular season, the Trojans are 4-1 straight up, including a perfect 2-0 coming off a bye following a loss. Michigan has played only one other true road game this season (at Oklahoma). They were horrific offensively in that game, and never stood a chance against an OU team I believe is highly overrated. I’m not a big Lincoln Riley guy, but I do think he’s better than Sheron Moore. Similarly, I’m not a big Maiava fan, but I think he’s better than Underwood. Give me the better QB, the better coach, coming off a bye at home. Tough travel spot for Michigan as well. Back the Trojans at home and lay the 2.5

Official Pick: USC -2.5 (-110)

3) BYU -1 @ Arizona: This is another one that I just don’t get to this number on. BYU on a neutral field, based on the 5 weeks of data and the pre-season rankings should be a 6.5 point favorite over Arizona on a neutral field. With general homefield advantage, they should still be over a FG favorite in this game. And that’s not taking into account that Arizona has a very weak homefield advantage. Bear Bachmaier has been awesome this season so far, but the BYU defense is what’s really been elite. Arizona on the other hand has had a surprisingly good start to the year, but the lone time they stepped up in class was against Iowa State and they got absolutely destroyed. This is a similar step up in class, but I believe BYU is better. Let’s back the Cougs here and lay the short number (Moneyline is fine too at -123 or better)

Official Pick: BYU -1 (-110)

4) Indiana @ Oregon UNDER 55.5: Well if you don’t bet totals, 55 is the most key number in college football (almost 4% of games land exactly on that number). We’re currently getting a hook over 55, and that’s very key here. I love the value in this number as well. The total in this case is taking into account an entire season worth of data. But when you look at how these two teams’ offenses faired against teams with similar caliber defenses, neither was remotely close to great. Oregon faced Penn State’s defense two weeks ago, and the Ducks scored 17 total points in regulation. That game was 3-3 at halftime, and somehow ended up going over the total because of late scores by Penn State to tie it, and then 3 combined touchdowns in overtime. Indiana’s only time playing a half decent defense, the game ended 20-15 against Iowa, and that included a score with under 2 minutes to go for the Hoosiers to escape with a win. I think we see a similar outcome in this matchup. We have two teams with seemingly elite defenses, but below average P5 offenses. I think the defenses win here and win BIG. I don’t see how this game gets past the 20s. It would take a 28-28 tie to get to overtime to get this over. I think we see closer to 24-14 type of game with Oregon winning with it’s defense. We’re backing the under at a very valuable number. Go UNDER in this gameday matchup.

Official Pick: Indiana @ Oregon Under 55.5 (-110)

All Play Ratings: 2-Stars

College Football Best Bets (10/4/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 4, 2025 | 2:35 A.M. CST

Best Bets Today:

1) Navy vs. Air Force OVER 51.5: It’s wild that the betting markets (that are so sophisticated) refuse to catch up to these service academies. Specifically, Air Force, who might have the worst defense in college football. In the past, seeing a total in the 50s with two service academies would be an automatic under bet, but times have changed. This Navy team has one of the better QBs in the country in Blake Horvath. And, he’s going against an Air Force team who’s got one of the worst defenses in the FBS. Their scores this season have SOARED over this number. This one will be no different. I can’t see this game going under 60. It’s going to be an absolute shootout

2) Illinois @ Purdue OVER 55.5: Illinois is coming off a big win, so it could be a slow start, but I don’t think it matters here. Their secondary is awful, and I think Purdue will do enough as a 10 point dog in this spot offensively to get this over the total. Illinois offense is VERY good, so even if they do start slow, I could see this still getting there in the second half. Regardless, Purdue put up 30 against Notre Dame last week, while giving up 56. They gave up the same number we need to get to here on defense alone. So I’m not worried at this number whatsoever. I think this is another one that the market has not adjusted enough. Go OVER here as well.

3) Mississippi State @ Texas A&M OVER 56: Here’s one more over for good measure. I know A&M’s defense looked better last week, but that was against Jackson Arnold and a TERRIBLE Auburn offense. I would be shocked to see Mississippi State held in check here. I think the Aggies will have plenty of success on offense, so I don’t see how this number doesn’t go over 56. I will say, we will need Marcel Reed to be better throwing the ball than he’s been so far this season. But I think this is a good spot for him to get right. Mississippi State is coming off a very tough loss to Tennessee, and I could see a hangover effect in play.

4) Virginia +6.5 @ Louisville: Look this is going to be a public dog, and I hate taking those. But this number is just off by a mile. Virginia, on a neutral field would be favored by 3 against Louisville in my power ratings. That means this should be roughly a pick’em. We’re CATCHING nearly a touchdown here. Not only do you have to play this +6.5, but it’s absolutely worth a sprinkle on the moneyline at +190. The Hoos are coming off a big upset of FSU, but that was on a Thursday night. They aren’t still thinking about that win 9 days later. And this Louisville team is just WAY overrated. They could’ve lost (and probably should’ve lost) to James Madison in week 2. Last week they trailed 17-0 to Pittsburgh, and trailed by 7 with under 10 minutes to play and got a lucky turnover as Pittsburgh was going into score on the 1 yard line. That flipped the whole game. This team easily could have 2-3 losses. Instead they’re 4-0, and this number is off because of it. On the other side, Virginia very easily could have beaten NC State week 2, which would have them undefeated. I think Virginia goes into Louisville and takes down the cardinals. But take the 6.5, and if you want to be really safe, you could buy it to 7

All Play Ratings: 2-Stars

Note: Our Podcast on youtube has a pick’em show. There was an issue with the uploading of our video this week, so this will serve as our official picks for the podcast. My 4 “Bet Your Baby Bets” on the Podcast are the same as the 4 above. Uncle T’s Double Digit Dog of the Week is Maryland +200 (+7) @ Washington. And his total of the week was last night’s game (Delaware/WKU OVER), which was a loss.

College Football Best Bets (9/27/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 27, 2025 | 8:47 A.M. CST

I gave out 3 plays already early in the week. We’re going to add an additional play here for the early slate Saturday.

Best Bet: Pittsburgh +3.5 vs. Louisville

Pick: Pittsburgh +3.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Football Best Bets (9/26/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 26, 2025 | 11:48 A.M. CST

Best Bets:

Virginia +7 vs. Florida State:

Florida State is playing their first true road game of the season, and this is a completely different spot than what they faced week 1 against Bama as a huge underdog. They had nothing to lose. Now they are a big favorite going on the road to a team that’s hungry for a signature win. Additionally, FSU is currently ranked #8 in the country, and they have #2 Miami coming to town next week. In all likelihood, College Gameday will be in Tallahassee for that game, with 1st place in the ACC on the line. Virginia has a prolific offense, and is more than capable of keeping up with FSU if they put up points here. I think this is a spot FSU easily could overlook this Virginia team, and the line really indicates that’s the case. I expected to see 9 or 10 here and we’ve gotten below 7 in some spots. Let’s take the 7 with UVA and I think they are a live dog. 

Arizona State -2.5 vs. TCU:

Look, this number is just too short considering what we know about each team. ASU really should’ve beat Mississippi State a couple weeks ago, but lost on essentially a hail mary. They beat Baylor on the road last week, and their defense was impressive in that showing, holding Baylor’s offense to just 357 total yards. That was an offense averaging 517 yards per game, and over 40 PPG. They scored just 24 in that matchup. Additionally, TCU has faced an incredibly weak schedule. In fact, of all the teams that they beat so far this season, NONE of them have a single win over a Power 4 opponent. We know Arizona State is a solid football team. We know TCU is a decent football team. I made this 4.5 and we’re at home in primetime on a Friday night, with the better coach, and the better QB. I’ll lay less than a FG in this spot easily. Give me ASU all day and lay the 2.5. 

Both Plays:2-Stars

College Football Best Bets, Saturday, 9/27/25 (Early Releases)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 26, 2025 | 1:09 P.M.

NCAA Record: 9-9 (Rough start, only .500, let’s get on the board in the green)

Best Bets (Early Releases)

1) Ole Miss ML (-115) vs. LSU

I gave this one out earlier in the week. There hasn’t been any real movement. I love the Rebs in this spot. I believe they are undervalued because they have a backup QB playing, but he’s better than the starter. LSU’s early season win over Clemson, where they trailed the entirety of the game, looks essentially unimpressive after Clemson has started 1-3, with their lone win over Troy (a game they could’ve lost as well). And the only SEC win LSU has posted in that span is a home win AT NIGHT against Florida. Florida out-gained the Tigers by 50+ yards, had 13 more first downs, and got into Tiger territory 6 times, only to score 10 total points. The Gators also led 3-0, and scored on a 90+ yard TD, that was called back due to a phantom hold. If Florida isn’t called for that penalty (which it wasn’t), that game goes a totally different way. Nothing they’ve done offensively has been impressive. And, I find it hard to believe they shut down this Ole Miss high powered offense by any means in Oxford. Give me the Rebs here.

Official Pick: Ole Miss -115 (ML) | 2-Star

2) Arkansas State +3 (Buy 1/2 point) -125 @ ULM

ULM come into this game 2-1 and Arkansas State is jus 1-3, but the records don’t show the true value here. ULM’s wins have come over St. Francis (non FBS) and UTEP by 6 (might as well be non-FBS). Two of Arkansas State’s losses have come against Arkansas and Iowa State (P4 teams). And they hung in there with Iowa State most of the way. Jalon Raynor (ARK ST QB) is experienced and has had success there for multiple years under head coach Butch Jones. We’re already seeing significant money come in on Arkansas State pushing this below the key number of 3, and we are still seeing money pour in that same way. That’s a clear indicator this is the right side.

Official Pick: Arkansas State +3 (-125) | 2-Star

3) Penn State -3.5 vs. Oregon

I would absolutely love this at -3, but I still really like it at 3.5. These two teams are not equal on a neutral field, which is essentially what this line is saying. Oregon has played nothing but cupcakes and they’re getting credit for winning by big numbers against bad teams. Penn State hasn’t looked incredibly impressive by any means, but they still have the better roster, better QB, and they’re at home in a night white out in Happy Valley. It’s actually baffling to me that this line isn’t 6. PSU is at least a 3 point favorite on a neutral field + PSU’s home field advantage is worth somewhere between 3 and 3.5 points. Those higher on Penn State could make an argument for them laying 7 even. Regardless, I love this spot for Penn State. They’ve been holding everything back for this specific game. And I truly do not trust Oregon’s QB. Dante Moore has done nothing to earn this much respect. He was highly recruited coming out of high school, that’s about it. His only decent performances have come against FCS teams. And, he’s NEVER been in an environment like this before. He’s going to be shell shocked. I don’t think this game is close. Give me Penn State by 14, and this is going to be our first 4-star play of the year in CFB.

Official Pick: Penn State -3.5 | 4-Star

NFL Best Bets (9/21/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 21, 2025 | 8:30 A.M. CST

Best Bets:

1) Minnesota Vikings -2 (-120) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

2) 2 Team Teaser: Bucs -.5 | Packers -1.5

Play Ratings: 2-Star

College Football Best Bets (Saturday, 9/20/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 20, 2025 | 7:44 A.M. CST

Overall Record: 6-6

Best Bets:

1) Tulane +14 @ Ole Miss: Gave this one out 4 days ago with the anticipation of a big line move and we got that. Hopefully you got in on this at that time, if not it can still be played under 14, but it’s less value. I think Tulane keeps this more than close. They’re a rare double digit live dog.

2) Duke -3 vs NC State: Duke is the far better team, despite the fact that they come into this game 1-2 and NC State comes in 3-0. NC State could easily have 2 losses, and they’ve played a much easier schedule. Lay the 3 with Duke

3) Florida +8.5 @ Miami: We lost with Florida last week in a game they absolutely should’ve won outright, and failed to even cover because DJ Lagway threw 5 picks. Even with the 5 picks, they had a drive in the 4th quarter, in LSU territory needing just a FG to cover the number. This is a much easier environment to play in, and Miami as a whole is less talented than LSU, and we’re catching a bigger number. I love the Gators here. If Lagway takes care of the ball they’re a live dog, and I would actually sprinkle some on the moneyline.

4) North Texas ML (-110) @ Army: I love North Texas in this spot. Army is way down this year, and this number opened with the wrong team favored but it got bet through the zero and now NT is favored. Army is getting respect in the number because of an upset of Kansas State two weeks ago, but that K-State win looks unimpressive. The Wildcats could easily be 0-4 and nearly lost outright to an FCS team in North Dakota. Take North Texas on the moneyline (lay it up to -129)

5) East Carolina +7 vs. BYU: Night game at East Carolina, weird things happen. BYU hasn’t played a soul offensively. I don’t see how ECU is catching this many points. BYU’s QB can’t throw the ball downfield, and they are going to have trouble covering a full TD. ECU has a shot to win this game outright.

All Official Picks: Tulane +14, Duke -3, Florida +8.5, North Texas -110 (ML), East Carolina +7

All Plays: 2-Stars

NFL Best Bet Thursday Night Football (9/18/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 18, 2025 | 10:10 A.M. CST

We’ve had a rough start to the NFL, but the reality is we’ve been on the right side of almost every wager. We’ve had a few bad breaks, but mathematically we will continue to make the right bets and in the long run it will churn a positive outcome. Let’s bounce back tonight

Best Bet: Dolphins/Bills OVER 49 (play to 51.5)

Tonight we’re going to back the OVER in the Dolphins vs. Bills matchup. From a math standpoint, the fact that the Dolphins are laying over 10 points is mind boggling, and yet I still have a tough time backing them, largely because I’m not sure if this team is about to quit on McDaniels. I can tell you from a power ratings perspective, the number is WAY too high. But I need to see what the team looks like over the next week or two after starting 0-2.

That said, I still love the over in this spot. The Bills are nursing some key injuries on the defensive side of the ball, including star LB Matt Milano, who is out for this contest. Additionally, as bad as the Dolphins have looked the first two weeks, they did look much better offensively against the Patriots. This Bills defense isn’t a juggernaut by any means, and I think the Dolphins will be able to find success tonight on offense.

On the other side, nothing tells me that the Dolphins have any ability to slow down this Bills offense. Josh Allen and company have been rolling, and the Phins have been autrocious on defense against two much worse offenses in the Colts & Pats. I think the Bills will be able to do whatever they want on the offensive end tonight, in a comfortable environment at home.

Official Pick: Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills OVER 49 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

Note: This has already moved to 49.5 and a lot of books, it’s going to continue to move so play it as early as possible. Play it up to 51.5 (52 is a key number so if it hits 52, it’s a no go).

NFL Sunday Night Football Best Bet (9/14/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 14, 2025 | 4:33 P.M. CST

Sunday Night Football Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings

Official Pick: Atlanta Falcons +3.5

Play Rating: 2-Stars

NFL Parlay of the Day (9/14/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 14, 2025 | 2:21 A.M. CST

Parlay of the Day (3-Teamer)

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals

Atlanta Falcons +3.5 @ Minnesota Vikings

Houston Texans -2.5 vs. Tampa Bay Bucs

Payout: 6 to 1

NFL Best Bets (Sunday, 9/14/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 14, 2025 | 1:38 A.M. CST

Best Bet Today:

Official Pick: Tennessee Titans +5.5 vs. LA Rams

Play Rating: 2 Units