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College Football Best Bets + NFL Teaser of Week (10/17/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 17, 2026 | 9:21 A.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) Army -2.5 vs. FAU: We have the nation’s best rushing offense going up against one of the nation’s worst rushing defenses. FAU played a service academy earlier this season (Navy) and gave up 30 points. They won the game, but this Army team is much better defensively than Navy is. I don’t see how FAU gets stops in this one, and Army should be able to find stops as the game progresses.
2) Toledo -6.5 vs. Easter Michigan: Toledo is off one of the most shocking losses of the college football season, losing as 18+ point favorites against Buffalo last week. I truly believe that loss was an outlier. Meanwhile, EMU has largely underperformed relative to expectation this season. And I’ve yet to see them get up for a big game. I think Toledo wins big.
3) Ole Miss -5 vs. Missouri: Ole Miss is trending in the right direction, and the defense continues to improve. Missouri has one impressive win on the season - Florida. That win has aged extremely poorly since then. Additionally, Eli Drinkowitz has never beaten a team that finished in the top 25. Florida is the only team that MAY end up there.
4) Miami vs. Florida State Over 56: Miami has the nation’s highest scoring offense. Florida State has a defense that has been SHREDDED by good offenses (Alabama, Louisville). I’m keeping this one simple. I think this flies over the total, and the numbers back it up. I make this 60.5. Take the over
All Plays 4%
NFL Teaser of the Week:
Patriots -1 | Chiefs -1
We’re going with a Wong teaser here. While I don’t normally like favorites in divisional games in teasers, I like the way both these teams are trending, while their opponents are trending in opposite directions. The Chiefs are still undefeated, but more importantly they are coming off a bye. Andi Reid is ELITE coming off a bye, and he’s going up against a team he’s very familiar with. While the Chargers have some talent on paper, until they rid themselves of Mike McDaniels as their playcaller, this team will continue to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. I have no issue backing the Chiefs here, at home, against this reeling Chargers team.
I also have no issue backing the Patriots in this spot. They are starting to trend upward, and Drake Maye is back to playing at an elite level. Again, it’s a divisional game, but the Pats are at home, and they aren’t in a position to give any games away after the terrible start to the season. The Jets are coming off a win, and Aaron Glenn is easy to fade in that spot. I like the back this Jets team after multiple losses in a row, when they are least expected to win. This is not one of those spots. We’re backing the better QB, the better coach, and the better team, at home to win straight up.
Official Pick: Patriots -1 | Chiefs -1
Play Rating: 4%
College Football Picks (10/10/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 10, 2026 | 4:46 P.M. CST
Best Bets
1) Georgia @ Alabama Over 51.5: This is all based on weather. If the weather is decent to good, this flies over the total by 2-3 touchdowns. If it starts pouring rain then we’re in trouble. So monitor the weather, but if it’s good, this is my favorite play of the entire season. Take the over, but watch the weather. 3% Play
2) Penn State +1.5 vs. USC: This line has moved in favor of USC, but I just do not trust Lincoln Riley and the Trojans traveling cross-country. They’ve been AWFUL away from home anywhere near the east coast. Give me the Nittany Lions all day. 3% Play
3) Boise State -6.5 vs. Fresno State: I bet this one early in the week, and it’s -8 now. There are still ways to play it. Play Boise in the first half anything less than a touchdown. Boise State team total over. You can play Boise State in a teaser with a NFL team tomorrow. Plenty of ways to bet this still. 3% Play
Monday Night Football Best Bet (10/5/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 5, 2026 | 9:34 A.M. CST
Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Well, it’s not going to be a surprise which way we look in this one. I have been finding great spots to take overs early in this NFL season. I believe unders have hit at a significantly higher rate this year. Because of that, we’re seeing totals placed relatively low across the board, and that includes when we get two good offenses meeting, like we have here. I think this game is also mispriced because we have an Atlanta team that played it’s first two games with a 3rd string QB. While I don’t think Michael Pennix is good by any means, he’s still a significant step up from Cooper Rush. We saw that in week 3, as the Falcons offense finally woke up against the Green Bay Packers. When you look at the Falcons offense, the only actual issue IS the QB position. They have an incredible set of skill position players, with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. They also have a pretty solid offensive line. Michael Pennix essentially has a top 10 NFL offense served on a silver platter to him, and as long as he doesn’t play as bad as Cooper Rush, there’s no reason to think they won’t have plenty of success tonight. The Saints defense, on the other hand, has been anything but good. They were torched week 1 by the Lions. Although they only gave up 17 points week 2 to the Ravens, they still allowed 5.6 yards per play. And then week 3, the Raiders put up 35 points on this unit. Now they go up against an offense trending in the right direction with a ton of weapons. I would be shocked if we don’t see the Falcons consistently move the ball against this unit.
On the other side, the Falcons defense is a very middling unit. They had some success last week against the Green Bay Packers. But the Packers have proved that they are a bottom 10 offense through the first 4 weeks. The Saints should have no problem moving the ball on Atlanta. Tyler Shough has been slinging it all over the yard the first 3 weeks, and he’s got plenty of targets to go to. Add in that it’s the 20th anniversary of the blocked punt by Steve Gleason following Hurricane Katrina and the re-opening of the SuperDome.
With all of that said, we’re going to play two things here. We’re going to take Atlanta Team Total Over 23.5 points, and we’re going to go with the game over 47.5.
Official Picks: Falcons Team Total Over 23.5 | Saints/Falcons Over 47.5
Play Ratings: 3%
NFL Sunday Night Football Best Bet (10/4/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 4, 2026 | 5:45 P.M. CST
Sunday Night Football Best Bet
Detroit Lions -3.5 @ Carolina Panthers (52.5)
We’re going to look at a total for this week 4 Sunday Night Football matchup between the Panthers and the Lions. I believe we’ve seen unders hit a pretty decent rate so far this season, but when that happens, I love to find the best spots to take the overs. We’ve seen a TON of sharp money come in on the over in this game. The total sat at 50.5 late Saturday. We currently sit at 52.5 (52 is a key number in NFL totals). So, I was going to give out the over in the game here, but we’ve now moved a full two points, and we’re above the key of 52. I don’t want to give out a bad number, so we’re going to look at the first half. Now you see the first half total of 26.5, and that’s equivalent to a game total of 53. But, there’s a reason I like first half overs in the NFL when the matchup is advantageous. At the end of the game, we have no clue what the situation will be. A team could be ahead, and be attempting to run the clock out. We could have a team down 2 scores, with the defense playing shell coverage and allowing a TD drive. There’s too much unpredictability. The first half, on the other hand, we know exactly what’s going to happen - both teams will be trying to score at the end of the half. That’s true 99% of the time. The reason I mention that, is it gives us an extra possession or two. If a team gets the ball back with anything over a minute, you can almost guarantee an opportunity to score. Additionally, the average starting field position off kick-offs is up significantly due to the new rules. Teams are starting on average past the 30 yard line. Touchbacks come all the way out to the 35. And, the length that kickers are kicking in this day and age gives us an even better chance of getting a late score. This number is 26.5, so we need 27 points in the first half to win it. If we get to 24 (which is a key number in first halves), we know we have at least a shot at a field goal on the final possession of the half.
Additionally, as I mentioned before, I just like this matchup for the over. Both teams have advantages on the offensive side of the ball. The Detroit offense has weapons all over the field. Gibbs, Jameson Williams, & Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the best trio’s of offensive weapons in the league. We should have good weather and good field conditions, and that’s going to make it really tough on a depleted Carolina secondary to get stops. I would be shocked if Detroit didn’t find consistent success offensively. On the other side, Bryce Young has been one of the best suprises of the past few seasons. His career looked over after his first two seasons. Benched for Andy Dalton on the worst team in the league; it looked bleak. But credit to Young for really turning it around the last couple years. He’s looked like a top 10 QB in the NFL this season. While he doesn’t have elite weapons like the Lions, he does have T. McMillian, and Chuba Hubbard out of the backfield. All of that said, it’s even better when you look at this Lion’s defense. They gave up 30 points the Saints in the second half alone week 1, after somehow giving up zero in the first half. They followed that up by getting shredded by the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football in week 2, giving up 41 points to Josh Allen and company. Then last week, against the New York Jets, they let Geno Smith throw for over 300 yards, and blew a 24-10 fourth quarter lead by giving up back-to-back 4th quarter TDs. They have not been able to come up with a stop when they’ve needed it most. Even in the Saints game, they needed a stop at the end of regulation and at the end of overtime and failed both times. They only stole that game against New Orleans because the Saints went for 2 and had very poor execution on the play. I actually think this Lion’s defense is one of the worst in the league, and the DC Kelvin Shepherd is not good (to put it nicely).
So, we’re going to take the first half over. Just a couple notes from other betting opportunity perspectives. I won’t be playing a side in this one, but if I was, I would lean Panthers plus the points. The line has touched 4 and even 4.5 in some spots. I’ve watched every snap the Lions have played this season and I do not believe they can beat teams by margin. Especially, on the road. This defense (as I described) is not very good, and even if the Lions have a lead late, you know you’ll have an opportunity at a backdoor cover against this Lions team. So lean to the Panthers plus the points in what I think will be a shootout. I obviously lean to the game over, while I prefer to take the first half under. And, as for props, I would literally look to play the over for every player in the passing game for each team. These are two of the worst secondaries in football, not even including injuries each is currently dealing with. So Bryce Young passing yards, Goff passing yards, McMillian receiving yards, St. Brown receiving yards, Jameson Williams receiving yards, Gibbs receiving yards (and receptions): all of those I would say look over or pass. I wouldn’t touch an under on ANY of those guys. It’s going to be a high scoring shootout, so take advantage of it in the prop market if you don’t like a side or total.
Official Pick: Lions @ Panthers 1H Over 26.5 (-105)
Play Rating: 3%
NFL Week 4 Best Bets (10/4/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 4, 2026 | 8:47 A.M. CST
NFL Sunday Best Bets
2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Jaguars +8.5 | Cowboys +9
I think we have two live dogs here. Dallas is catching three at Houston. Houston’s defense has taken a significant step back this year. I don’t see them as a team that can consistently stop this prolific Dallas offense. I actually think Dallas will win this game, but we’ve seen some sharp money come in on the Texans after the news that Nico Collins is likely back this week. He does change that offense a lot, and Dallas’ defense has been far from good. But getting this to more than a TD gives us a good buffer zone. On the other hand, I think Jacksonville is a live dog too. The Jags could very easily be 3-0. And while I do like Joe Burrow, I don’t think this is going to be a blowout either way. I see this being right on the number, and we’re going through the 3 and the 7 here.
2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Bills -1 | Seahawks -1
I went back and forth on taking the Bills here. I don’t really like taking divisional favorites in any capacity. The Patriots are very familiar with the Bills, and this is basically a must win for them. That said, I just can’t see how the Patriots turn it around in just one week. They have looked horrific through 3 weeks, and Drake Maye couldn’t have had a worse start to the season. I think Buffalo finds a way to win a close game. Seattle, I love in this spot. They’re coming off a loss, heading back home. Plus, Darnold got his feet wet last week, and now has a game under his belt after coming back from the hip injury. The Chargers have been abysmal so far this season. And while I do love 0-3 teams who are better than their record, the Chargers don’t fit that mold. Unfortunately Jim Harbaugh made a catastrophic mistake hiring Mike McDaniels to be the OC, and the organization refused to go out and get WRs. This Chargers team just does not have enough on offense to put up points on one of the league’s best defenses.
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans Over 48.5
I’m not even going to explain this one. I’m going to take the over in every Dallas Cowboys game until one goes under. So far on the season I’ve done it every week and we’re 3-0. If this Texans team didn’t have Nico Collins, I may consider laying off this one. But with Collins back, the Texans will have no trouble moving it on Dallas. And Dak and company will do what they always do: put up points. Take the over.
Summary:
1) Jags +8.5 | Cowboys +9 (Teaser): 3% Play
2) Bills -1 | Seahawks -1 (Teaser): 3% Play
3) Cowboys @ Texans Over 48.5: 3% Play
Saturday Best Bets: College Football (10/3/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 3, 2026 | 2:11 A.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) Alabama @ Mississippi State Over 60.5 (play to 62.5)
2) Michigan -5.5 vs. Minnesota
3) Florida @ Missouri Over 57.5
4) Kentucky @ South Carolina Over 53
5) Temple +7 (-120) @ South Florida (Buy to 7 at -127 or better)
Friday Night Lights College Football Best Bet (10/2/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 2, 2026 | 4:50 P.M. CST
Best Bets
Virginia Tech -1.5 vs. Pittsburgh
We’re going to back the home favorite tonight under the lights in Blacksburg, Virginia. Both teams come into this game undefeated with a lot at steak in terms of the ACC conference race. I’ll start by saying I made this Virginia Tech -1.5 on a NEUTRAL, so I believe there’s some decent value on the Hokies in this spot, getting them at home at less than a field goal. Let’s dive into each team.
Pittsburgh has played 4 games this season: 2 against power 4 teams, 1 against a group of 5 team, and one against an FCS team. When looking at the Panthers’ numbers coming in, they look impressive. Mason Heintschel specifically looks incredible on paper so far this season, throwing 13 TDs and just 1 interception through 4 games. However, when you break it down, Heintschel threw all 13 TDs against Miami (OH) and Bucknell. Against the two power 5 opponnets, Heintschel has throw ZERO touchdowns and one interception. While Pittsburgh did win both those games, neither of those teams were world-beaters (UCF and Syracuse).
Virginia Tech on the other hand, has played some decent competition the last two weeks. They went into the game against Maryland as a 2 point favorite and dominated the game from start to finish. They failed to cover last week against Boston College, but that was a road game in really poor weather, and they found a way to win the game. Tonight’s game will be a much different environment at home. Additionally, I really do like what I’ve seen from Ethan Grunkemeyer. He was with James Franklin last season at Penn State, and has really improved with every start. Then you add it Jeff Overton, who is likely the best player on either team (VT’s starting RB). There’s advantages all over the field for Virginia Tech.
Overall, I think there’s significant value on VT at home. I think they are the better team, with the better QB, and a coach that always wins games he’s supposed to win. The one thing keeping me from making this a huge play is the market. We’ve seen significant movement in favor of Pittsburgh. The Panthers opened some places as high as 4.5 point favorites. And this is down to 1.5 in a lot of spots. I’m not one to overreact to the market too much - with the amount of public bettors these days, they absolutely can have their say. However, when you see a game move through the 3 that easily, there is some doubt that creeps in. I really like VT in this spot, so I’m not going to be deturred by the market moving against us. If anything, I’m happy to be getting a better number. I liked Minnesota last week +10 and I saw Washington get hammered by pros, and the Golden Gophers won the game OUTRIGHT. So let’s take VT tonight and take advantage of some value.
Official Pick: Virginia Tech
Play Rating: 3%
Additional Free Play:
I like Northwestern +3 against Penn State tonight as well. I would say 2% play max, because I don’t love Aidan Chiles and I don’t want to overreact to one game. But if you can find a +3 at -123 or less, Northwestern is worth a play. If you can’t find a 3, then moneyline might be the better play.
NFL Best Bets Sunday (9/27/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 27, 2026 | 10:57 A.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) Teaser: Lions PK vs. Jets | Bucs +7.5 vs. Vikings
This is my favorite teaser of the week. I love the Lions in this spot against a Jets team that will likely finish the season with less than 5 wins. Aaron Glenn got a win week 1 to go over .500 for the first time at any point in his coaching career (in a season). That didn’t last long though. Glenn’s team blew a large 4th quarter lead to the Packers at home last week. There were some big mistakes by Glenn late in that game that could’ve cost them the game but didn’t (clock mismanagement & lack of situational awareness). Regardless, I think that loss is a tough pill to swallow. This Jets team thought they were going to be 2-0 after everyone picked them to finish dead last in the NFL. Instead, you blow it in overtime, and now have to go on the road to play the Lions. And if we think Glenn is the worst coach in the league, and Dan Campbell and Glenn are familiar with each other (Glenn was his former DC), then it’s advantage Lions from strategic perspective. I think the Lions will cover the 6, but that defense is NOT GOOD in Detroit, and I don’t trust them to not get backdoored late, which is why we’re going to a teaser.
This is a desperate Bucs team that nobody thought would start the season 0-3, and yet they’re on the verge of doing that if they drop this one to the Vikings. I like that the Bucs are at home here, and I like that this is essentially a must win. On the other side, the Vikings are lucky to be 2-0. They lost their starting QB 11 snaps into the game week 1. Carson Wentz comes in and somehow orchestrates back-to-back wins. That said, the second win came down to the final play, and they also didn’t have to face Caleb Williams in the 4th quarter. Now they have to go down to Florida to play in the heat and humidity. They’re happy to be 2-0. Kyler Murray comes back, and with another 2 weeks off and limited pre-season action, what does the continuity and fluidity look like? I just don’t see it. I think the Bucs win this game outright, but that’s why I love this teaser leg so much. Even if the Bucs have a BAD GAME, which I don’t think will happen. Being at home, being in desperation mode, and going against a Vikings offense that likely won’t play GREAT, I don’t see how the Vikings ever win by more than a TD.
Official Pick (2 Team 6 Point Teaser): Lions PK + Bucs +7.5
Play Rating: 4%
2) Teaser: Bills -1 vs. Chargers | 49ers -2.5 vs. Cardinals
Last year, going with 7 to 8.5 point favorites in teasers was rough. So far this year we are seeing a regression to the mean. We’re going through the 7 and the 3 on both legs, and I think we have a significant advantage in both games. I’ve watched every snap from the LA Chargers this season, and it makes you want to jump off a cliff. I knew the offense was in trouble the second they hired MIke McDaniel as their OC. To make matters worse, they refuse to add any legitimate receivers. Quintin Johnson is quite possibly one of the worst wide receivers in the entire league, and he’s their second option. I actually like Justin Herbert, but he’s so flustered with the situation that he’s starting to make poor decisions. On the other side, the defense has been horrific - this is the more surprising part of this team. The defense was significantly improved last year. On the other side, the Bills have looked like the best team in the league through two weeks. While I normally don’t love going with a 2-0 team against a desperate 0-2 team, there’s just too many factors pointing Buffalo’s direction. They’re playing at home in their new stadium. They have the Josh Allen Superman factor (where the team can play awful and he can just win them the game on his own). And mainly, I just don’t see a scenario in which this version of the Chargers defense consistently stops the Bills offense. So I’m going Bills leg one.
Leg 2, we’re going with the 49ers, my pick to win the Super Bowl this season. I try to avoid divisional games where I look to the favorite, because weird things happen when there’s that much familiarity. But this Cardinals defense just has no way to stop this 49ers offense the way they’re playing. The defense is a bit suspect, but the Niners are at home, playing against a bottom 10 offense in the NFL, with a bottom 10 QB. Maybe it’s square to go Niners -2.5 in this leg, but we’re doing it.
Official Pick (2 Team 6 Point Teaser): Bills -1 + 49ers -2.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 3%
3) Teaser: Browns +8.5 vs. Panthers | Broncos +8.5 vs. Rams
One final teaser here. I really like the Browns in this spot, as DeShaun “Magic Towel Man” Watson is somehow actually playing pretty good football as of late. I wanted to take them +3, but that number is gone, and we sit at 2.5, so we’re going to go to a teaser leg again. I just don’t see the Panthers winning this game by 2 scores.
The Broncos is similar. The Broncos rarely lose outright at home, so looking for a final teaser leg to pair with the Browns, the Broncos in primetime against an overvalued Rams team looks pretty good. I just do not see this Rams offense WITHOUT PUKA moving the ball all night against this Broncos defense. They still have some weapons on offense, but with the exception of Riley Moss (HORRIBLE), the Broncos defense has no holes. And after getting torched week 1, the locked back in and showed who they were last week. I’ll take the Broncos as the second leg, catching over a TD. Again, we’re going through the keys of 3 & 7 this week on all of our plays one way or the other.
Official Pick: Bills -1 + 49ers -2.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 3%
3) Cowboys vs. Ravens Over 53
I’m just going to keep betting over in the Cowboys games until one loses. Last year the Cowboys were 13-4 to the over. They are now 2-0 to the over heading into this week. That’s 15 of their last 19 games that have gone over. We should be seeing totals in the 60s for this team. You know why? Because despite the Boys defense being historically bad last season, they’ve somehow got worse. New DC Christian Parker is an absolute JOKE. That was a miss, just like Shottenheimer was. I think the Ravens will do whatever they want, whenever they want. If I were betting a bunch of props I’d bet Derrick Henry over, every wide receiver starting, take the over. Mark Andrews? Go over. Seriously, Dallas can’t stop a runny nose. That said, the offense has been phenomenal through two weeks once again. Pickens and CD Lamb combined make it nearly impossible to cover this team. If you double those guys, Jake Ferguson and Turpin are good enough to beat your LBs and bad secondary guys. If you go too many DBs, they hand it off to Javonte Williams who has been really good since coming to Dallas. It’s not as though Dallas scores on every possession. But they rarely go three-and-out, and they consistently threaten in scoring position. I also love that they have Brandon Aubrey who can hit from anything inside 70. Also, I truly believe this - I listed to a lot of guys shit on Shotty for punting against the Giants on a 4th and inches on their own 35 in the Giants game. If you see a 4th and 1 or less past the 40 yard line, Dallas will go for it - mark my words. And that works in favor of an over. You don’t want punts inside the 40s. Overall, this game screams shootout. And then you have the fact that over 70% of games that have been played on soccer fields have gone over. Why? Because the footing is poor, and that makes it really hard to react and plant when the defense doesn’t know where they are going and the offense does. I see a complete gun fight, shootout here. Take the over.
Official Pick: Bills -1 + 49ers -2.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 3%
Additional Play: I bet one other thing today, and it was a 3 team moneyline underdog parlay. Keep in mind this was a small play. But I’d like to release all my plays as much as I can. So here you go. The moneyline dog parlay: Steelers +155, Browns +110, Broncos +115 (pays 10.5 to 1)
NFL Best Bets Week 2 (9/20/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 20, 2026 | 1:55 A.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) Bengals @ Texans 1st Half Under 23.5
I love this spot for an under. The Texans defense was embarrassed by their performance last week, where the Bills put up 36 points. We know the Texans defense is much better than what they showed against Josh Allen and company. And, after we saw the Bills put up 41 on a short week Thursday night, it’s nothing to be ashamed of. Additionally, when you dig into the numbers, the defense really wasn’t THAT bad. From a down-to-down persepctive, they actually played above average last week. Where they struggled was explosive plays. They got torched for big plays by the Bills. While Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense has been great over the last couple years (when he’s healthy), I don’t see them being anywhere close the Buffalo Bills. I would be shocked to see the Bengals have consistent success against the Texans defense this week. They will come out with a much better gameplan and much more motivated than they were week 1.
On the other side, the key is Nico Collins being out for the Texans. This Texans offense isn’t great to start. But, when you take Nico Collins out of the picture, over the last few seasons, the Texans have been horrific offensively. Specifically, CJ Stroud is AWFUL when he does not have Nico Collins. I’d be shocked to see the Texans sniff the 20s. This Bengals defense had an entire overhaul over the offseason, and while I don’t think they will be great, I believe they are MUCH improved this season. So we’re going to look under in the first half here. The current number is 23.5 but it’s getting bet down (play to 21.5)
Official Pick: Bengals @ Texans 1st Half Under 23.5
Play Rating: 3%
2) 2 Team Teaser: Chiefs -.5 | Rams -1
This is a play on two teams that I think are both Super Bowl contenders. The Chiefs looked phenomenal week 1 against the Broncos. Normally, this would be a bit of a let down spot, playing a subpar team (the Colts) after a big emotional win. But I don’t think this Chiefs team cares enough about a win against the Broncos week 1 to have a big let down. I believe they want to make a statement early in the year that they are back. Secondly, the Colts played way above expectation last year, and because of that they are getting a little too much credit. This number is basically saying the Chiefs are a 3 point favorite on a neutral field against the Colts. I know it’s early, but the way Kenneth Walker looked week 1, I have no clue how that’s what oddsmakers believe. I make the Chiefs a 6.3 point favorite on a neutral. So to get them to a pick’em is a steal in my opinion. Not to mention, Mahomes is elite in primetime.
The Rams are coming off a loss week 1 in Austrailia. While I’d normally look to fade a team coming back from overseas, we know the Rams were only there a few days, and their internal clocks aren’t nearly as affected as a team like the 49ers who spent over a week there. Additionally, the game was last Thursday, and we get the Rams on a Monday night - so they’ve had nearly 10 days to adjust. Then you look at the spot. The Giants played late Sunday night, which loses an additional day for them. It was the first game of the Harbaugh era in New York, and they got a big win against the Cowboys. They played about as well as they could’ve hoped and got a big win over a divisional rival. Everyone talked about them all week as a legit contender in the division. It sets up perfectly for a huge letdown spot for the Giants. Additionally, the Rams were picked as the favorites to win it all prior to the season, so I just don’t buy the idea of them going 0-2 to start. And obviously we have the Giants making the cross country trip. I love the Rams to win in this spot. I think we’re getting a steal on each of these teaser legs.
Official Pick: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (Chiefs -.5 & Rams -1)
Play Rating: 3%
College Football Week 3 Best Bets (9/19/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 19, 2026 | 1:50 A.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) NC State +3.5 @ Vanderbilt: I am no CJ Bailey fan - in fact I don’t think he’s good at all. But this is just a bad matchup for Vanderbilt. NC State is more talented than a Vandy team that struggled with Delaware at home last week. I think we just have a talent mismatch here. NC State got spanked by Virginia week 1 and I believe that is factoring into the number here. It shouldn’t though - Virginia is one of the best teams in the ACC and will compete for a conference title. Let’s back NC State +3.5 (play to +3).
2) LSU @ Ole Miss OVER 57.5: I don’t love betting highly emotional games. But I do think we have an edge here in the total. We have two teams that are extremely high powered on offense, with good but not great defenses. I think we have an advantage on the offensive side of the ball with each side. Ole Miss arguably has the best QB and best RB in the entire SEC, maybe the best duo on the country. On the otherside, LSU has an elite dual threat QB in Sam Leavitt. I have a hard time seeing either offense being held down in this game. Additionally, I have a hard time seeing either team slowing down if they are up late. Ole Miss is going to want to absolutely lay it on LSU late if they can. Likewise, we know Kiffin would love nothing more than to win by three touchdowns. I think we see a tight game down the stretch, but I would say, at worst we see a backdoor over with one team punching it in late. There’s a decent chance this game is played in the thirties, especially after what we saw from Ole Miss’ defense in the second half of that game against Louisville (bust after bust in coverage). And that was against a far inferior offense compared to this LSU Tiger offense. Take the over 57.5 (play to 58.5).
3) SMU @ Louisville over 58.5: Similarly to the previous breakdown, we have two offenses that are elite against two defenses that are relatively average. Specifically, Louisville is an over team for me this season, after what I saw against Ole Miss. If Jeff Brohm takes the training wheels off (which he did against Ole Miss) they have a dual threat QB and plenty of weapons around him that can allow this offense to be extremely high powered. I loved what I saw from them against Ole Miss in the second half. SMU we know has the QB to put up points, and from what I saw against a very poor FSU squad, I don’t believe the defense is all that great. I like points here, so let’s back two really good QBs in this matchup to put up points as well. Take over 58.5 (Play to 59.5).
4) Virginia Tech -3 @ Maryland: I’ll fade Maryland anytime I can. And I love to do it against a coach in James Franklin who is elite at beating bad/average teams. He’s terrible in big games, and horrific against elite competition. But against the caliber of team that Maryland is? He’s about as good as there is. I think this line is extremely mis-priced. I made this VT -6.5, so from a math perspective we have a big edge. So let’s back the Hokies to run away with this one in the second half. Back VT -3.
5) Mississippi State Team Total Over 13.5 (1st Half): We’re getting less than 2 TDs from what has looked liked the best offense in college football through two weeks. It would be one thing if Kamario Taylor had not played a road game before but he has - just last week. And they scored on their first 7 drives of the game. I honestly have no idea how this number is so short. I love their team total over 27.5 in the game as well.
Best Bets Recap:
Official Picks: NC State +3.5, Ole Miss/LSU Over 57.5, Louisville/SMU Over 58.5, VT -3, Mississippi State Team Total Over 13.5 (1st Half)
All plays: 3%
Other Opinions: Arizona State -5.5, Texas State/North Texas Over 65, South Carolina/MSST Over 59.5
NFL Thursday Night Football Best Bets (9/17/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 17, 2026 | 3:04 P.M. CST
Buffalo Bills -5.5 vs. Detroit Lions (54.5)
Tonight, the Buffalo Bills will play their home opener at their brand new stadium, Hallmark Stadium. Both teams are coming off an opening week win, both in dramatic fashion. The Bills trailed the Texans a large portion of the game, before seizing control late. The Bills’ defense came up big late, forcing a fumble on a strip sack of C.J. Stroud to seal the win for the Bills. The Lions, on the other hand, led the entirety of the game, yet probably should’ve lost the game. They led 21-0 late in the third quarter, before absolutely imploding. The offense was OKAY in stretches, but they had trouble protecting Jared Goff, just as they did last season. To make matters worse, one of their best lineman, Blake Miller, sustained a season ending knee injury in the eleventh snap of their game against New Orleans, which is a huge factor in tonight’s game. The Lions gave up 21 straight points to the Saints, as Tyler Shough threw for 350+ against the Lions defense. The game headed to overtime after a 65 yard missed field goal by New Orleans as time expired. Even in overtime, the Lions could never get the stop they needed, which made the game come down to one play - a two point conversion that they ultimately did stop, giving them a week one win.
All of what we saw week 1, going along with what I believed these teams were heading into week 1, leads me to believe the Bills are the far superior team. This line opened 3.5, which is insane, because these teams are not close to even on neutral field. That said, it got bet up to 5.5 pretty quickly, which is where we sit now. I hate taking a bad number, which is why I really don’t want to lay 3.5. I also believe we could see a game where Buffalo gets up early, and we have to sweat out a backdoor cover late. As bad as the Lions OL has been over the past year, they still have insanely good weapons all over the field. Because of that we’re going to look to the team total market.
The Bills offense is ELITE because they have Josh Allen. It was elite last year, and now they added DJ Moore, who looked tremendous week 1. Maybe more importantly, though, Dalton Kinkaid looked phenomenal week 1. He stepped up and looked like a clear number two option for Allen. He’s always had the talent, and it’s finally coming together. It makes some sense, as many say Tight End is the toughest position to acclimate to when transitioning from college to the NFL. The Bills were awesome last week offensively against what many believe is the best defense in the NFL in the Houston Texans. Allen absolutely shredded them for 334 yards and 4 total TDs. As a team, the Bills put up 409 yards of total offense, but even more impressively a staggering 7.9 yards per play, all of which led to 36 points. It really could’ve been more too. It was an incredibly impressive performance. Now you have that offense going back home to play a defense that was bottom 10 last year, who comes in with a ton of injuries? We must back the Bills in this spot.
So we’re going to make two bets here. We’re going to take the Bills team total over in both the first half and the game. The game took some sharp money at 29.5 and has been bet up to 30.5, while the first half total sits at 14.5. I think we go over both with ease. I’m going to take the first half too, because I think we’re just getting a good number. I don’t believe the first half total for this Bills team should be any less than half the game total, and it is. So let’s go two Bills team totals over, and we don’t have to worry about who wins. We can just enjoy the Bills put up 50 on the Lions.
Official Pick: Bills Team Total 1H Over 14.5 + Bills Team Total Over 30.5
Play Rating: 3% each
MLB Best Bet (8/31/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 31, 2026 | 10:21 A.M. CST
One MLB Play tonight and I actually love this one. 3 Unit Play Below
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros Over 8.5 Runs
This one is simple. Two good offensive teams with two starting pitchers who are trending poorly. This is mis-priced by a full run. I made this 9.7 and we’re getting 8.5 (-115). Lay the juice and take over 8.5. You are good to play this up to 9 (-110).
Official Play: White Sox/Astros Over 8.5
Play Rating: 3 Units
College Football Week 0 Best Bets
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 29, 2026 | 4:55 A.M. CST
College football is BACK baby! I’ve got two plays for you to kick off the first day of college football. I won’t be playing big units early on, as it can be tough to get a great feel for teams with the current roster turnover in today’s college football world. But I still have two plays I do like for week zero.
North Carolina +8.5 vs. TCU
Let’s be clear here, I hated what I saw from North Carolina last season under Bill Belichick. To say it was a train wreck would be a massive understatement. Funny enough, their first game of the season last year came at home against Sunny Dykes’ TCU Horned Frogs. And, the Tarheels went straight down the field on the first drive of the season and scored a touchdown. The place was going nuts, and everyone in that stadium fully expected it to be history from that point on. Instead, TCU not only went down and answered with a touchdown of their own, but then preceded to rattle off 41 straight points, in route to a 48-14 win over the Tarheels in Belichick’s debut as a collegiate head coach.
That said, these aren’t the same teams as last year. TCU was slightly above average in their own right a season ago. They finished 9-4 with an Alamo Bowl win, but were never in the mix for a Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff birth. And that all came with Josh Hoover as the starting QB. Hoover, one of the top rated portal players, transferred to defending National Champion Indiana to play for Curt Cignetti. That loss will be felt in a big way by Dykes and company, as Hoover’s replacement is a SIGNIFICANT step down. I’ve read a lot about the “potential” of Jayden Craig (Harvard transfer). But the reality is, when you look at his tape and break down his numbers, there is a reason he’s been in the Ivy League for his first 3 college seasons. His TD to INT ratio is very good; over the course of the last two seasons he has 48 TDs to just 10 INTs. The problem is his completion percentage is abysmal for a QB playing in the Ivy League who is supposed to be a Power 4 conference level QB. His best season was slightly above 61%. Additionally, if you look at his numbers against the best competition last season, it wasn’t good. The final game of the season against Villanova (the closest thing he saw to an FBS level defense), Craig was awful. Completing just 9/21 passes for 105 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTS, in route to a blowout loss.
UNC’s QB on the other hand, is a significant step up from what they had last season. Gio Lopez was one of the worst P4 starting QBs. Now, in steps Billy Edwards. While his career numbers won’t wow you, he’s got a significantly larger sample size (with success I might add) against P4 level defenses. He was the starter at Maryland for a full season, and although the Terps weren’t great, Edwards threw for over 2,800 yards, 15 TDs & 9 INTs. Yes, those numbers aren’t phenomenal, but he did it with very little talent around him; he was at a disadvantage against the opposing defense from a talent perspective, every game. He was good enough for the Wisconsin Badgers to go after him last season. Edwards started the first game of the season for Wisconsin, before going down with a season ending knee injury. According to reports, he says that knee had been bothering him for a long time prior to the injury, and following his surgery he feels healthier than he ever has in his college career. That’s good because I think he will be able to use his legs against this TCU defense that loves to sit in zone.
Now the coaching. I’m not a fan of Sunny Dykes whatsoever. Dykes was the head coach when TCU made their cinderella run to the National Title game, before getting spanked by Georgia. But that season, people forget that Dykes actually chose to start Chandler Morris over Max Duggen to start the year. And if it weren’t for an injury to Morris, Duggen would likely never have stepped in (or would’ve stepped in way too late), and TCU likely never sniffs a College Football Playoff. Since that magical year, the Horned Frogs have underperformed from pre-season expectations pretty much every year. And I think this year will be no different. My feelings on Dykes are only solidified by the fact that he hired Andy Avalos as his DC and has kept him on again this season. Avalos was essentially run out of town in Boise, after the players all but revolted; NOBODY liked playing for the guy. On the other hand, while Bill Belichick had a horrible first season, I still trust the 5-time Super Bowl champ over Sunny Dykes any day of the week. Especially now that the two rosters aren’t as separated as they were last year.
I’d also like to note that everyone is forgetting that this game is in Dublin, Ireland. And I can tell you this: NOBODY knows how college players are going to react to having to play in a completely different country with a HUGE time change. That said, Bill Belichick was 3-1 as a head coach in international games in the NFL, so he clearly knows how to win in this environment. That IS an advantage in my book. I’d also like to note that since this Ireland series resumed in 2022, underdogs are 3-1 straight up and ATS, including two double digit dogs winning outright. Last year a smaller dog won, as Iowa State upset Kansas State as a 3.5 point dog. It makes sense in the setting alone, to back the dog (especially of over a touchdown) when the two teams are in an unpredictable environment like this. So that alone made me lean UNC. Then you throw in all the other elements and I actually think UNC is a LIVE DOG in this spot.
So we’re backing UNC +8.5 (good to +7.5) and sprinkle some on the moneyline +255
Official Play: North Carolina +8.5
Play Rating: 1 Unit
Virginia -4 vs NC State
While I may not have a great feeling on the rosters of most teams heading into week zero, one team I do have a phenomenal feel for is Virginia. I played them at +1600 to win the ACC (they should be closer to +800). The Cavaliers returned their entire offensive line, and should have the best offensive front in the conference, and one of the best in the country. They are going to have a phenomenal run game this season, and I expect them to have a lot of success in this opener, at home against NC State. Add in that the Cavs arguably upgraded at QB, adding Missouri trasnfer Beau Pribula. Not only is Pribula a highly touted recruit out of high school, with starting experience in the SEC. But he also fits this scheme perfectly, with his ability to use his legs.
I expect Virginia to lean heavily on it’s run game in this one (and all season). That success will undoubtedly open up the deep pass game for Pribula to hit some deep shots to their talented receivers. On the other side, you’ve got CJ Bailey for NC State. I’ve heard a lot of hype about the improvement of Bailey for this upcoming season, but I just don’t buy it. This is a guy who was incredibly inaccurate as a pocket passer last season for the Wolfpack. I find it hard to believe Bailey is going to step into a true road game (a conference game at that) and be able to have consistent success against a Tony Elliott led defense with all off-season to prepare. Bailey’s best attribute is his legs, and I have a very strong feeling that Elliott is going to make Bailey beat them with his arm from the pocket. I also don’t trust NC State’s OL like I do UVA’s. I think UVA has a shot to really get some pressure on Bailey and make him uncomfortable in the pocket, where he already struggles mightily.
This one is easier to handicap than the previous one in my opinion. 4 points is just way too few for a veteran Virginia team, who played in the ACC Title game last, playing at home against an NC State team that underperformed a year ago, who is going to lean on a QB that I just do not trust. Give me Elliott, Pribula, and company to run all over NC State and cover the 4 points with ease. Lay the points with Virginia.
Official Pick: Virginia -4
Play Rating: 1 Unit
MLB Sunday Best Bet
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 28, 2026 | 8:34 A.M. CST
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants (2:10 PM)
The Braves take on the Giants in a rubber match of this short 3 game series on Sunday afternoon. The Braves have been on a recent skid, after starting the year as the best team in baseball. Injuries have played a role, but the offense has really dipped this month. Specifically the last 10 games, they’re averaging just 2.9 runs per game, and they’ve gone just 3-7 in that span. With that in mind, the Braves are starting Chris Sale, who has been phenomenal this season, with a 2.3 ERA (4th in the MLB). He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season.
The Giants offense hasn’t been anything to write home about all season. They have had a few hot streaks, but overall they are a bottom half offense. At the same time they trot out Robbie Ray who has been close to as good as Sale this season with a sub 3.5 ERA. The Giants have won 5 consecutive Robbie Ray starts as well.
Overall, we’ve got two great pitchers and two sub-par offenses who have been even worse as of late. Because of that we are going to look to the under here. I like both the game under and the first five under. Let’s split it into two bets. We’re going to go with 3 units on the first five, and 2 units on the game. I see a very low scoring, close game between these two teams today.
Official Pick: Braves/Giants 1st 5 Under 3.5 (+100) | Braves/Giants Under 7.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 3-Stars (1st 5) | 2-Stars (Game Under)
MLB Early Picks (6/25/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 25, 2026 | 10:08 A.M. CST
Royals @ Rays (11:10 A.M. CST)
We’re going to look at an over in this spot. We’ve got Seth Lugo on the bump for the Royals, and the Rays will counter with a bullpen game, as they are starting reliever Casey Legumina. Neither pitcher jumps off the page at you as elite. Lugo comes in with a 3.69 ERA & a 1.35 WHIP. Legumina enters with a 3.45 ERA & a WHIP of 1.34. In his last 5 starts Lugo has surrendered 11 total runs over 26 and 2/3rds innings. But over those 5 games, the totals have been very high. There have been at least 10 total runs scored in each of Lugo’s last 5 starts. And, it’s not as though they’ve faced the greatest offenses in that sample: the Rangers twice, Cards, Twins, and Mariners. With the exception of the Cards, we’re looking at below average offenses.
The Rays offense hasn’t been great as of late, but they do seem to be trending in the right direction, scoring 5 in their last 2 games, and at least 4 in 5 of their last 6. We’re sitting at a total of 7.5, and these two teams have gone over that total in the first two games of this series (8 & 17). I specifically like where this Royals offense is trending. They were one of the worst offenses in baseball through the first 50 games. But, they’ve started to turn a corner the past month; specifically, the last 10 games. They’re averaging 6.4 runs over the last 10 games, putting up a total of 64 runs, including 3 games of double digit runs. I see this as a high scoring game, and I’m not sure why the total has come down with these two guys pitching against two offenses trending in the right direction.
Official Pick: OVER 7.5 (-125) | Play to 8 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
Mariners @ Pirates (11:35 A.M.)
We’re looking at the total in the first five for this one. Bryce Miller (3-1) takes the mound for the Mariners, and he has been absolutely elite this season. He’s surrendered just 7 total runs in 7 starts this season for Seattle, posting a 1.58 ERA and an absurd .70 WHIP. He’s thrown three, one-hitters in his seven starts. And, most importantly, he’s given the Mariners at least 5 innings in all of his starts. This Pirates offense has definitely been playing better as of late. They are coming off putting up 11 on this Mariners squad last night. However, they are very hit or miss. They tend to put up 3 runs or less, or put up a crooked number. I don’t see this lineup getting to Miller, who’s been absolutely tremendous so far this season. I would be shocked to see the Pirates put up more than 3 runs in this game, unless they get to the bullpen late.
On the other side, I’m not going to sit here and tell you Bubba Chandler is a great pitcher to back for an under. He’s 2-7 as a starter, with a 4.62 ERA & a 1.38 WHIP. However, he’s been much better in his last 3 starts. He has surrendered just 2 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts, coming against a couple pretty good offenses in the Rockies, Marlins, and Braves. Now, is he fixed? No. But I think Chandler can give us 5 good innings here and limit the damage to 2 or less runs. If he can do that, I’d be shocked to see Miller get hit for 3. So we’re going to go under 4.5 runs, even at the extra juice. I think this is going to be a low scoring game overall, but we’re going to dodge the bullpens entirely, as I think if the Pirates somehow do get to Miller early, it’s going to go over in the game anyways. So let’s not take the extra risk. Take the first 5 under 4.5 runs.
Official Pick: 1st 5 UNDER 4.5 (-120)
Play Rating: 2-Stars
SEC Tournament Best Bet Thursday (3/12/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 12, 2026 | 5:05 P.M. CST
Best Bet: Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
Oklahoma has been on a heater lately. Most people counted them out, and rightfully so after a horrific start to the season. But, Porter Mosure is a really good coach. Most coaches would’ve lost the locker room, but Mosure kept his guys playing hard, and all the sudden they are a couple wins away from being in real conversation for an NCAA tourney bid. They HAVE to win this game against Texas A&M to have any shot of being in that discussion. Luckily for the Sooners, they have a couple things working in their favor. One, they’ve won 7 of their last 9 games, including 5 of those 7 wins by double digits. They also played last night and won, and they are facing an Aggies team who sat around watching. This tournament has been notorious for favoring teams who play in the early rounds against teams with a single bye. It’s the classic rust vs. rest, and it’s really hurt the team resting in conference tourneys over the past couple seasons. Lastly, I just think Oklahoma is a better team than Texas A&M. I made this line OU -2.1 and we currently sit A&M -2.5. I think the wrong team is favored here, and I wouldn’t even mess with the points. Take Oklahoma moneyline. If you want a little bit of protection, the teams that have rested have really struggled early on in games. And, you have a team in A&M who is a traditionally slow starter against an OU team that is better early. The Sooners’ losses this year have often come when imploding late. So if you want to split half the bet on the first half, and half the bet on the full game, that’s cool too.
Official Pick: Oklahoma +125
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Basketball Rare Totals Best Bet
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 12, 2026 | 2:53 P.M. CST
Note: So I’ve been working on a new system betting college basketball totals. Specifically, betting first half overs and team total overs (both 1st halves and full games). It’s been absurdly successful, going 15-2 through the last 17. It’s taken some refining, but now with a decent sample size, I’m ready to post. I’m excited to use these plays going into next season.
Best Bet: Duke vs. Florida State 1st Half OVER 72
This number is incredibly deflated. I made this game total (removing late game fouling) 162. Take that in two halves, and we’re looking at 81 per half. The first time these two teams played it was an absolute shoot out. I don’t see why this one will be any different. Why? Because Duke is down 2 starters, including their best rim protector in Patrick Ngongba. Ngongba missed their last regular season game against UNC. Guess what? That game went over the first half total as well, and went over this number by multiple possessions. Florida State plays MUCH faster than UNC and they’ve been on a heater offensively. This is not a Leonard Hamilton FSU team. If they are elite at anything, it’s not defense. They shoot it better than any FSU team over the past decade, they’ve got great guard play, and they are coming off playing yesterday (which is often good for rhythm). Duke not playing for an extended stretch will hurt them on the defensive end more than on the offensive end, as FSU doesn’t have the defense to slow down Boozier and Malik Brown. If Duke shoots remotely decent from the perimeter, we should see this go over the first half total easily. Take the first half over and enjoy a sweat free win.
Official Pick: Duke/FSU 1H OVER 72 (-110)
Play Rating: 3-Star
College Basketball & NBA Best Bets (2/2/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 2, 2026 | 11:07 A.M. CST
College Basketball Best Bets:
Texas Tech -3.5 vs. Kansas
We’re going to take the same game twice here, and both are going to be plays on Texas Tech. Tech started off conference play with a 6-1 record, before dropping one on the road on Saturday against UCF. That was a tough spot for Tech, and we saw significant professional money come in on the Knights, pushing the line down a full point. I was on the Knights in that matchup myself, mainly because of the spot. But, I am very high on Texas Tech, especially when playing at home this season. They already have a win over top 10 ranked Houston a few weeks back. Not only did they win that game, but they exploded offensively against one of the best defenses in the country.
Overall, this team is one of the best offenses in the country: They are 21st in the country in effective FG%, 13th in 3FG%, and 10th in overall offensive efficiency (KenPom). So we’re talking about one of the most high powered offenses in the country. Tech’s team total tonight is 79.5 (-120), a number that they have cleared in 5 straight contests, 8 of their last 10, and 13 of their last 15. Now, I understand that Kansas is a top 15 defense in the country, but as I mentioned Tech had no problem dismantling Houston’s defense at home last weekend (Houston is 10th in defensive efficiency). Additionally, Kansas did have success on the road against two of the conference’s worst teams in Colorado and Kansas State. However, their two previous road games came against West Virginia and UCF (both middle of the pack in the Big 12). Both those teams cleared 80 points and beat Kansas outright. This Texas Tech team is huge step up in class for what Kansas has seen on the road in the past month, as is the environment they will be stepping into. We’re going to back the better offense to win against a solid defense tonight and take Texas Tech’s Team Total over 79.5.
Additionally, we’re going to look at Texas Tech as a side play here as well. I like them at anything under 5, and we’re currently sitting 3.5 (opened 2.5). We’re going to see more money come in on Texas Tech here, so get in on it as soon as possible.
Official Pick No. 1: Texas Tech Team Total OVER 79.5 (-120)
Official Pick No. 2: Texas Tech -3.5 (-110)
Play Ratings: Both 2-Stars
NBA Best Bet:
Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5 @ Memphis Grizzlies
We’re going to look at another team total here. This one is going to be brief. This is a big mismatch in terms of the Minnesota offense against the Memphis defense. This is a rematch from two nights ago, and in that matchup, Minnesota scored 77 in the second half. They dropped 30+ in 3 of 4 quarters in that matchup, which is what we need to go over here. Additionally, we’ve seen pro money come in on the game over here, pushing it up a full two points. So let’s take the T-Wolves over their team total.
Official Pick: Minnesota T-Wolves OVER 59.5 (1st Half) -110
College Basketball Best Bets (Saturday, 1/31/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 31, 2026 | 8:49 A.M. CST
Best Bets:
Play of the Day: Arizona State +14.5 vs. Arizona:
Arizona State is just catching WAY too many points here. And that’s not even factoring in the fact that this is a rivalry game, and ASU tends to really get up to play Arizona. I made this number Arizona -10.8 on a neutral floor, which doesn’t come close to the 14.5 points before even factoring in home court advantage. ASU gets just over 3 points for home court, and we’re literally sitting at less than half this number. To be exact I made Arizona a 7.7 point favorite here. This was by far the biggest differential in my model vs the market on the board today. You add in that this is a rivalry game and it only makes that number seem even bigger.
Official Pick: Arizona State +14.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 4-Star
Total of the Day: UCONN @ Creighton OVER 67.5 points
I made this one of my top totals of the day in terms of the game total. I project about 149 points in the game, with the total sitting at 141.5. We’re getting an even better number in the first half though, only having to go over 67.5 points. That’s on pace to be just at 135 points. That’s way too low for these two teams. Both teams are top 60 in the country (top 15%) in effective field goal percentage offense. We’re looking at two of the most efficient offenses in the Big East. They key here is location. UCONN’s offense tends to travel. Creighton’s offense is the one that sometimes struggles on the road, so the fact that this game is at Creighton makes this a very playable spot. I also think this total is discounted based on the pace factors for the two teams. Creighton plays in the middle of the road. UCONN plays at an extremely slow pace. But, UCONN tends to mold to the team they play against. They have no issue running with teams if they have the opportunity to do so. Thus, if Creighton turns it over or turns this into a three-point shooting contest, UCONN is not the type of team to secure a rebound and walk it up the court. They are just efficient in running their half court offense. Let’s take the first half over here for our top total of the day. I think we see a first half total somewhere in the 70s.
Official Pick: UCONN/Creighton 1st Half OVER 67.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 4-Star
Two Additional 3-Star Plays:
1) Virginia Tech +13.5 vs. Duke (Number is way too big)
2) California +10.5 @ Miami (Number is way too big)
NFL Best Bet Monday Night Wild Card Game (1/12/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 12, 2026 | 9:38 A.M. CST
Best Bet: Houston Texans -3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
We’re backing the road favorite tonight in the final Wild Card matchup of this 2026 NFL Playoffs. The Texans come into this game as the lower seed, but they are a far better team than the Steelers. Pittsburgh is beyond lucky to even be in the playoffs, let alone hosting a playoff game. If Tyler Loop was able to knock in a 43 yard field goal we’d be looking at the Texans and Ravens tonight. If that lucky break wasn’t enough, the NFL sure did the Steelers a huge favor placing them in the Monday night slot. Pittsburgh has not lost on Monday night since 1991, and Mike Tomlin is undefeated as the Steeler’s head coach in Monday night games. The Texans, on the other hand, have NEVER won a road playoff game (0-7 all-time). And yet, we’re backing the Texans here. Why? Because the Steelers truly are not a playoff team when you look at the metrics. In fact, they are far from it. The Steelers went 1-5 against playoff teams this year, with their lone win coming against the New England Patriots all the way back in week 3 (before New England was playing at a high level). The Texans, on the other hand, are for real. And more importantly, they matchup extremely well against this Steelers team. Houston’s defense is ELITE. They are the best defense in the NFL, and the only team relatively close to them on that side of the ball is the Seattle Seahawks. They face off against a significantly below average offense. I see absolutely ZERO path for this Steelers offense to have ANY success tonight. I really wouldn’t be shocked to see Pittsburgh score single digits tonight. It’s almost impossible to see a path where the Steelers score 14 or more points, without CJ Stroud turning it over multiple times or seeing some sort of special teams touchdown. I have absolutely no idea what “sharps” have been doing in these NFL playoffs. We saw them back the Eagles, the Packers, the Jags, and now the Steelers. I just do not get it. You’re giving me this at such a discounted price. Smile and say thank you. Lay the 3 at reduced juice. I made this 5.5 and that’s factoring in the spot and the fact that I do not trust CJ Stroud at all. This really could be closer to 7 if Stroud was playing at even a decent level.
Official Pick: Houston Texans -3 (-105)