Blog
College Football Best Bets (Saturday, 9/20/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 20, 2025 | 7:44 A.M. CST
Overall Record: 6-6
Best Bets:
1) Tulane +14 @ Ole Miss: Gave this one out 4 days ago with the anticipation of a big line move and we got that. Hopefully you got in on this at that time, if not it can still be played under 14, but it’s less value. I think Tulane keeps this more than close. They’re a rare double digit live dog.
2) Duke -3 vs NC State: Duke is the far better team, despite the fact that they come into this game 1-2 and NC State comes in 3-0. NC State could easily have 2 losses, and they’ve played a much easier schedule. Lay the 3 with Duke
3) Florida +8.5 @ Miami: We lost with Florida last week in a game they absolutely should’ve won outright, and failed to even cover because DJ Lagway threw 5 picks. Even with the 5 picks, they had a drive in the 4th quarter, in LSU territory needing just a FG to cover the number. This is a much easier environment to play in, and Miami as a whole is less talented than LSU, and we’re catching a bigger number. I love the Gators here. If Lagway takes care of the ball they’re a live dog, and I would actually sprinkle some on the moneyline.
4) North Texas ML (-110) @ Army: I love North Texas in this spot. Army is way down this year, and this number opened with the wrong team favored but it got bet through the zero and now NT is favored. Army is getting respect in the number because of an upset of Kansas State two weeks ago, but that K-State win looks unimpressive. The Wildcats could easily be 0-4 and nearly lost outright to an FCS team in North Dakota. Take North Texas on the moneyline (lay it up to -129)
5) East Carolina +7 vs. BYU: Night game at East Carolina, weird things happen. BYU hasn’t played a soul offensively. I don’t see how ECU is catching this many points. BYU’s QB can’t throw the ball downfield, and they are going to have trouble covering a full TD. ECU has a shot to win this game outright.
All Official Picks: Tulane +14, Duke -3, Florida +8.5, North Texas -110 (ML), East Carolina +7
All Plays: 2-Stars
NFL Best Bet Thursday Night Football (9/18/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 18, 2025 | 10:10 A.M. CST
We’ve had a rough start to the NFL, but the reality is we’ve been on the right side of almost every wager. We’ve had a few bad breaks, but mathematically we will continue to make the right bets and in the long run it will churn a positive outcome. Let’s bounce back tonight
Best Bet: Dolphins/Bills OVER 49 (play to 51.5)
Tonight we’re going to back the OVER in the Dolphins vs. Bills matchup. From a math standpoint, the fact that the Dolphins are laying over 10 points is mind boggling, and yet I still have a tough time backing them, largely because I’m not sure if this team is about to quit on McDaniels. I can tell you from a power ratings perspective, the number is WAY too high. But I need to see what the team looks like over the next week or two after starting 0-2.
That said, I still love the over in this spot. The Bills are nursing some key injuries on the defensive side of the ball, including star LB Matt Milano, who is out for this contest. Additionally, as bad as the Dolphins have looked the first two weeks, they did look much better offensively against the Patriots. This Bills defense isn’t a juggernaut by any means, and I think the Dolphins will be able to find success tonight on offense.
On the other side, nothing tells me that the Dolphins have any ability to slow down this Bills offense. Josh Allen and company have been rolling, and the Phins have been autrocious on defense against two much worse offenses in the Colts & Pats. I think the Bills will be able to do whatever they want on the offensive end tonight, in a comfortable environment at home.
Official Pick: Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills OVER 49 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
Note: This has already moved to 49.5 and a lot of books, it’s going to continue to move so play it as early as possible. Play it up to 51.5 (52 is a key number so if it hits 52, it’s a no go).
NFL Sunday Night Football Best Bet (9/14/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 14, 2025 | 4:33 P.M. CST
Sunday Night Football Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Official Pick: Atlanta Falcons +3.5
Play Rating: 2-Stars
NFL Parlay of the Day (9/14/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 14, 2025 | 2:21 A.M. CST
Parlay of the Day (3-Teamer)
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals
Atlanta Falcons +3.5 @ Minnesota Vikings
Houston Texans -2.5 vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
Payout: 6 to 1
NFL Best Bets (Sunday, 9/14/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 14, 2025 | 1:38 A.M. CST
Best Bet Today:
Official Pick: Tennessee Titans +5.5 vs. LA Rams
Play Rating: 2 Units
College Football Best Bets (Saturday, 9/13/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 13, 2025 | 1:08 P.M. CST
College Football Record: 5-4
Today’s Best Bets:
1) Texas Tech vs. Oregon State OVER 61.5 (-110)
2) Arkansas +6 @ Ole Miss (-110)
3) Texas A&M +7 (Buy 1/2 Point) @ Notre Dame (-110)
4) Florida +7 (Buy 1/2 Point) @ LSU (-110)
All Play Ratings: 2-Star
MLB Best Bets (9/9/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 9, 2025 | 8:59 A.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) St. Louis Cardinals +170 vs. Seattle Mariners: George Kirby has had the worst season of his career, and his metrics the last month have pointed towards a continued downward trajectory. The Cardinals should be closer to +140 in this spot, so we’re grabbing 30 points of value. Back the Cards +170 (Good to +155)
Official Pick: Cardinals +170
Play Rating: 2-Stars
2) Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels OVER 9 Runs (-110): These two pitchers both carry an ERA over 5.00. And recent outings for Zebby Matthew (MIN) in particular have been absolutely awful. He’s particularly bad against the Angels, getting shelled last time he faced them. I expect runs early and often in this game. Take the OVER 9 runs at -110 (good to -119)
Official Pick: Twins/Angels OVER 9 Runs (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Stars
NFL Best Bets (Sunday, 9/7/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 6, 2025 | 11:18 P.M. CST
Today’s Recap: I’m posting this late Saturday night, so recapping the day. Went a perfect 2-0 which was nice after a rough week 2 in CFB. We now sit 5-4 on the season in college. Don’t forget, we won the first leg of our NFL Teaser for week 1 (Eagles -2), and we now just need the Broncos -2(my favorite teaser leg of the week). Hopefully we book an easy win there, and we can start 1-0 in NFL and get to 60% to start the season overall through 3 weeks.
Sunday NFL Best Bet:
Pick: Baltimore Ravens ML (-110) @ Buffalo Bills
Look this is simple logic here, the Ravens are much more motivated in this spot than the Bills. You have a Baltimore team coming off a loss in the playoffs in Buffalo last season that left a nasty taste in their mouth. They’ve been salivating at this opportunity ever since the NFL schedule was released.
I love Josh Allen more than anyone, and I don’t love fading the Bills at Orchard Park. However, this is an early September game. It’s much different than playing in Buffalo in late November. Not to mention, the Bills are extremely thin on the defensive side of the ball. I actually believe these two teams will meet for the AFC Championship game this year. I believe the Chiefs take a huge step back, and I don’t think the Chargers or Broncos are quite ready to make a deep playoff run. Allen and Jackson are the last two reigning MVPs, and they are the best two QBs in the NFL (in the regular season) the last few years. The difference is that the Ravens have way more weapons surrounding Jackson. Whereas, the Bills rely on Allen to do just about everything. While Allen can often turn into Superman, I don’t see it here early in the year. Especially against a motivated Ravens team.
Baltimore comes out with their head on fire, they jump all over the Bills, and they don’t let off the gas. This number should be Baltimore -3, and we’re basically getting 10% juice for a pick’em. We’re backing the Ravens here on Sunday night. Best of luck and let’s start off the season with an easy winner!!
Official Pick: Ravens ML (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Stars
College Football Best Bets, Afternoon (Saturday, 9/6/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 6, 2025 | 1:01 P.M. CST
Best Bet
Mississippi State +7 vs Arizona State
Play Rating: 2 Stars
College Football Best Bets, Early Games (Saturday, 9/6/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 6, 2025 | 9:52 A.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) Baylor Bears +3 @ SMU Mustangs
2) Illinois -2.5 @ Duke
Play Ratings Both: 2-Stars
NFL Teaser of the Week (9/4/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 4, 2025 | 2:14 P.M. CST
Best Bet (Teaser of the Week): Broncos -2 vs. Titans | Eagles -2 vs. Cowboys
Both are good to play at -2.5 or better (anything under 3 is great)
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Football Best Bet (Sunday, 8/31/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 31, 2025 | 4:49 P.M. CST
Overall Record: 3-3
Summary: Rough day yesterday. Went 0-2. Northwestern was the wrong side, without a doubt. Preston Stone (SMU transfer QB) was significantly worse than I expected. NW was driving deep into Tulane territory, late 2nd quarter down 10-3, with a chance to tie the game and turned it over. Tulane took it the length of the field the following drive to make it 17-3, and NW couldn’t recover. The second game was much different. A&M played a pathetic first half offensively, and still should’ve covered easily. Despite underperforming all half the Aggies had the ball needing just a FG to cover with 55 seconds to go. They reached the 45 yard line and Marcel Reed made some horrible throws that resulted in a 3 and out.
Update: Make sure to check out our podcast, where we give out our best bets of the week on Wednesday nights. I give out 4, and Uncle T gives out his total of the week and underdog of the week. We also give out a combined 3-team parlay. This week I went 3-1 on my best bets. Uncle T won his total of the week, but lost the dog. And our parlay is 2 for 2 going into tonight, with Notre Dame -2 (the line when given out) as the last leg.
Best Bet Tonight: Notre Dame -130 vs. Miami (FL)
We’re going to back Notre Dame tonight in this early season, top 10 matchup. Notre Dame’s defense is the most known commodity going into tonight. I honestly think backing the under is worth a look here too, but the number has gotten so low, and I don’t trust Mario Cristobal. I could see Notre Dame having a lot of success tonight, specifically on the ground.
CJ Carr is definitely not someone we know a lot about, but we do know a lot about Carson Beck. And, if you’ve followed him over the years you’d know that he is talented but does not always perform. He struggled mightily last year once he lost his two top targets from his first season. While Miami does have a number of talented players, they lost their best 2 weapons from a season ago in Xavier Restrepo and Elijah Arroyo. I think he struggles big time tonight against what might be the nation’s most talented defense.
Take Notre Dame. If you can find -2 (-110) or better ATS, you can do that. Otherwise back them on the ML. We don’t want to lay a full 3 here in a low total game. But -130 is out there at multiple books. So is -2, so find the best number available, but avoid laying more than 2 and more than -130.
Official Pick: Notre Dame -130
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Football Best Bets (Saturday, 8/30/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 30, 2025 | 9:45 A.M. CST
Sorry for the late post. Here are my two best bets for the day. Not going to post a summary because I want to get this out quick. But if you want a summary of the Texas A&M play check out our college football picks show on Youtube @slobberknockersports
Best Bets:
1) Northwestern +4.5 (-110) vs. Tulane
2) Texas A&M (1H) -13.5 vs. UTSA
Both plays: 2 Units
Free College Football Play of the Day (Friday, 8/29/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 29, 2025 | 4:15 A.M. CST
Last Night Recap: Great night last night, as we went 2-0 on our best bets with winners on Buffalo +18 and Cinci +7.
Free Play of the Day: This play below is NOT an official play. This is a play that just missed my card. I do not have anything on this game whatsoever and it will NOT count for my Best Bets record, win or lose. These free plays are essentially just leans. It’s a side that I like but missed the cut for whatever reason.
Friday’s Free Play of the Day:
Pick: Baylor Bears +1.5 vs. Auburn
Summary: the line on this game opened Auburn -2.5 and we’ve seen significant money push it down to 1.5. Some spots it’s trending towards pick. Auburn had a rough year last year, missing a bowl game once again under Hugh Freeze. Baylor wasn’t all that much better early in the year but they improved significantly as the season progressed, which likely saved Dave Arranda his job.
Going into this year Auburn has the better recruiting class, but Baylor has the much more known commodity at QB in Sawyer Robertson. He’s got a solid arm, mobility, and he’s done it for multiple years at a power 5 school. On the other side, the Tigers trot out Jackson Arnold. A highly touted prospect out of HS, Arnold had high expectations, but largely disappointed in his freshman campaign at OU, getting benched prior to the mid-season rivalry game against Texas. The kid he was benched for was a 3-star kid with significant skill deficiencies. While Arnold did end up getting starts later in the season, it was clear he was not ready to lead a high division 1 program. Now he transfers to Auburn and has to go on the road week 1 to a solid team with a much improved defense.
The reason is stated away from this game is I truly don’t trust Dave Arranda. I think he’s a subpar coach, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was out in Waco by the end of the season. That said, I still lean Baylor here. Not only do they have the better QB, but fading Hugh Freeze is normally a profitable endeavor. He’s done nothing but underperform, from a wins standpoint, as well as ATS. I don’t expect either team to look particularly sharp tonight, but I trust the home team, taking pro money, with the better QB, and the not as shitty head coach.
Let’s back Baylor for our free play of the day. Reminder, I have no real play in this, it’s simply a lean.
Pick: Baylor +1.5
College Football Best Bets (Thursday, 8/28/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 28, 2025 | 4:03 A.M. CST
Season Record: 1-1
Best Bet No. 1: Cincinnati +7 (-125) vs. Nebraska: Must buy half a point to get to 7
Cinci comes into this game returning 9 of 11 starters on the defensive side of the ball. The Bearcats started the season 5-2 last year and played good football early, before collapsing down the stretch and missing a bowl game (0-5 to end the year). However, they return a good portion of their offense as well, including their starting QB Brenden Sowsby (good dual threat QB).
On the other side, Nebraska returns a ton on the offensive side of the ball, but only 5 on defense. Nebraska really struggled in pass defense last season, finishing outside the top 75 in FBS. Additionally, they were a horrific road team, specifically on the offensive side of the ball. They scored over 20 points on the road just once in 5 games last season, with that lone outing being a 28 point performance against Purdue (the worst defense in the Big 10). They averaged just 16.4 PPG on the road last season, and struggled to move the ball consistently.
We’re going to back the Bearcats here at home in the opener. I think the Dylan Rioala hype is way overblown. He was an average collegiate QB last year, and Nebraska was an average team. Laying nearly a touchdown on the road, with no proven record of success this early in the season is
Best Bet No. 2: Buffalo +18 vs. Minnesota: this one is broken down on my podcast on youtube. Search Slobberknocker Sports and fast forward to the best bets section of the show.
Both Bet Units: 2
College Football Week 0 Best Best (8/23/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 23, 2025 | 3:37 A.M. CST
Best bets are below, with more to come week 1
Best Bets:
1) Kansas State -3 (-110) vs. Iowa State
2) Hawaii -130 (1H) vs. Stanford
Both plays: 2-Star
College Football Win Totals Part 1 (8/23/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 23, 2025 | 3:07 A.M. CST
Below I will provide the win totals that I have already bet. There is still a week left for a number of teams before they play their first game, and I’m still working on my totals. So, I will post a second part of this article with additional win total picks.
Win Totals:
1) Hawaii OVER 5.5 Wins (-165): Hawaii won 5 games last season (finished 5-7), and they lost 3 games by 3 points or less. They were very close to being bowl eligible last year, and I believe they will get there this season. They return 14 starters, and that doesn’t include their QB (who started the final game of the season last year and threw for 300+ yards & 5 TDs). With the exception of a game at UNLV, the Rainbow Warriors don’t have a sure loss on the schedule, and they avoid having to face Boise State.
2) LSU OVER 8.5 Wins (-140): Last year I faded LSU (took them Under 9.5 wins), largely due to a poor transfer portal and recruiting class and we cashed that easily. This year we’re taking the opposite approach, largely due to the incoming talent and returning production. If Arch Manning stays for two seasons, there’s a good chance Garrett Nussmeier is the number one overall pick in the draft next year. Looking at the schedule, if they go into Clemson and win week 1, the Tigers are going to cruise over this win total easily. BUT, if they lose week 1, they still have a legitimate shot to go over. We have room for 3 losses, and even with a loss to Clemson, the Tigers schedule is favorable ENOUGH to get to 9 wins. They avoid Texas and Georgia in SEC play, and one of their road SEC games is Vanderbilt. The Tigers will win 9 or 10 games (depending on if they take down Clemson week 1).
3) Oregon UNDER 10.5 (-135): Dante Moore is a 5-star kid, transferring from UCLA. The problem is, he couldn’t even win the starting job on one of the worst teams in the conference last year. He struggles with accuracy, consistency, and taking care of the ball; and while Oregon is a hub for QB production, I’m not sold that Moore is going to be able to step in the way Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel did for the Ducks. Now, they don’t have the toughest schedule, but they DO go TO Penn State. That is going to be a loss, baring significant injury to the Nittany Lions. Thus, we only need the Ducks to lose one more game out of their 11 remaining. And, they are coming off an undefeated season, which is often hard to follow up (look at FSU last year). We’re backing Oregon to go UNDER their win total here.
4) Indiana OVER 8.5 Wins: The Hoosiers non-conference schedule is an absolute joke. They will undoubtedly start the year 3-0, meaning we need to go 6-3 or better to cash the win total from week 4 on. While they do have to go to Penn State and Oregon (both very likely losses), they dodge Ohio State in the regular season. Additionally, 5 of their remaining 9 opponents have win total projections below 6 games. If odds hold true, that means Indiana would have to beat just ONE team projected to make a bowl game to cash this ticket. The numbers back up Indiana over here, as I have them winning 9.7 games this year (model). Take the Hoosiers to go OVER their win total
NBA Finals Game 7 Best Bet (6/22/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 22, 2025 | 9:21 A.M. CST
Previous Play: We won last week on Tuesday on our moneyline favorite parlay in the WNBA. We were very fortunate in the NY Liberty game, as they fell behind big, and were able to comeback and find a way to win late at home. The other three games were all blowouts. Another win in the books nonetheless.
Current Streak: 4
Best Bet Tonight: OKC Thunder -6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers
I did a video breaking down this game on YouTube, and there where I broke down the keys to the game. Go checkout that video if you want a full game breakdown. But here I’m just going to focus on the number, which is where the value lies here. Games 1 & 5 the Thunder closed as a 9.5 point favorite, and in game 2 they closed as a 10.5 point favorite. Those were the 3 home games they’ve had in this series. They’ve won and covered 2 of those 3 games (including each of the last two). The lone game they didn’t cover, they led by double digits in the fourth and just collapsed late. So, just from a pure numbers perspective, this makes absolutely no sense. We’re looking at a number that is a full 3 points short from the average number we’ve opened in this series. So from a pure value perspective, the Thunder are 100% the side here.
Secondly, you have to look at how good OKC has been at home this postseason. They’ve had two losses in the playoffs by a combined 3 points, and both came on buzzer beaters. One came against the Nuggets in game 1 of the West Semis. The other came in game 1 of the NBA Finals against their current opponent, the Indiana Pacers. Overall, the Thunder have been DOMINANT at home, and nothing has been different in the NBA Finals. They are 10-2 straight up at home in the post-season, with a +247 scoring margin. That’s ABSURD, especially considering the fact that they have 2 losses in that stretch. And, there’s no reason to believe the dominance is going to change tonight. Yes, the Pacers have been very fortunate and they’ve been the hottest team in the league up to this point. But, the Pacers have not been the same team on the road.
We’re going to roll with the Thunder tonight and lay the 6.5. It’s just too cheap of a price; the number is just plain wrong. I understand factoring in a game 7 and factoring in the “destiny” feel of this Pacers team. But I believe in numbers and math. And the math says that this number is 3 points short. While the Thunder may have been overpriced in the series price to start the NBA Finals, they are largely underpriced tonight. Let’s take advantage of it. Lay the 6.5. I would play it to 7 (-110).
Official Pick: OKC Thunder -6.5 (-120); play to -7 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
WNBA Moneyline Parlay (6/17/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 17, 2025 | 4:32 PM CST
Previous Best Bets: 2-0 on the Friday bets at the US Open. We had two stress free wins Friday with Brooks Keopka leading from start to finish over Jordan Speith who was horrible Friday morning. We followed that up with an EASY win with Adam Scott shooting an even par 70, while Tom Kim struggled his way to a 4 over 74. Gotta love easy wins.
Current Streak: 3
WNBA Moneyline Parlay:
Indiana Fever -1790 vs. Connecticut Sun: This is not going to be close. Indiana lost the last time they played, and that was without Caitlin Clark in the lineup. This Connecticut team is arguably the worst team in the WNBA. They just lost at home to the Chicago Sky, a team the Fever beat by 30 without 2 starters (including Clark). The Fever are a 17.5 point favorite. They have a decent chance of covering that number
New York Liberty -370 vs. Atlanta Dream: This is a classic spot for a team that has overperformed (Atlanta) to come back down to earth. The Liberty started this season a perfect 9-0, but they dropped their first game of the season last outing at Indiana. Caitlin Clark was phenomenal with 32 points, 9 assists, and 8 rebounds. And NY had no answer. But now they are back at home, looking to bounce back. This is a good spot for the Liberty. Additionally, the Liberty were without multiple starters last game. They have all but one starter back now. That paired with their overall talent level, coming off a loss, and playing at home all lead this to a game that New York runs away with. They will come out angry and look to respond from that loss to Indiana.
Minnesota Lynx -845 vs. Las Vegas Aces: The Aces are just not the same team this season. Trading Kelsey Plum has proved to be a terrible mistake. And now they are down Aja Wilson? This team is nowhere near good enough to compete with the second best team in the league on their home floor. Minnesota wins here easily.
Seattle Storm -410 vs. Los Angeles Sparks: This Seattle team is very inconsistent. They were 9.5 point favorites last outing against a .500 GS Valkaryies team, and they got absolutely spanked. If this game was being played at full strength, I would say this is a 50/50 game, but still a good spot for Seattle coming off a loss. They have plenty of talent. The problem for the Sparks is they will be without their two leading scorers, including their best player in Kelsey Plum. Those injuries are way too much to overcome. Give me Seattle in this spot.
Official Pick: 4-Team Parlay (Fever, Liberty, Lynx, Storm) -114
Play-Rating: 2-Star
U.S. Open Round 2 Matchup Best Bets (6/13/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 13, 2025 | 3:47 A.M. CST
Previous Bet: We got home easily with Tyrese Haliburton over. A nice 3-star winner for the followers of my page, as Haliburton got there in the middle of the third quarter. No sweat on that one, and we’ve started a new streak. I’m headed to Las Vegas today, so let’s get on a heater while I’m there!!
Current Streak: 1
Best Bets:
Best Bet No. 1: Brooks Koepka +104 vs. Jordan Speith (RD 2 Matchup):
We’re going to ride with two-time U.S. Open Champion over my favorite golfer today. Despite my love for Jordan Speith, the fact of the matter is that he just hasn’t had it the past couple years. It feels like we all are just waiting for Speith to have some sort of resurgence in his career, and yet it just has not happened. Speith played well yesterday, getting in at even par. But he’s been extremely inconsistent round-to-round. Par yesterday at Oakmont is an exceptional score. It’s hard to see a world where Jordan follows that up with anything BETTER than a 70 today. On the other side, Koepka is the exact opposite. When he’s playing poorly, he often misses the cut. But when he puts up a good first round at a major, he actually tends to improve round to round (relative to course conditions, not always score-wise). Koepka got in at even par, just as Speith did. However, that included finishing with back-to-back birdies on 17 and 18. Had Koepka got through those two holes with two pars, he comes in 2 shots off the lead, in a tie for third. It’s a completely different spot than he’s currently in. Brooks just LOOKED the better golfer, and he’s had significantly more success in majors in the recent past. I actually have ZERO clue how Brooks is a DOG here. I guess his current form is to blame for the number, but Speith has just not been good. Back Brooks to take down Speith at plus money, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it wasn’t particularly close. By the way, I give Brooks a 68% shot to shoot better than Jordan today, and yet we’re catching 4 extra cents on the dollar. I considered making this a 3-star, but we’ll stick to 2-star
Official Pick: Brooks Koepka +104 Over Jordan Speith (U.S. Open Round 2 Matchup)
Play Rating: 2-Star
Best Bet No. 2: Adam Scott -134 vs. Tom Kim
Adam Scott was phenomenal in approach yesterday in round 1 at the U.S. Open. He hit 14 greens in regulation on his way to an even par 70. That said, he struggled with the putter (not a huge surprise). Scott, who will turn 45 next month, still has some good golf left in him. He finished top 10 in the Open Championship at the end of last year, and he finished top 20 (19th) in the PGA Championship roughly a month ago. The experience in this level of tournament can’t be understated. When we look at the other guy here, Tom Kim has been far from good this season. He comes in nowhere near top form. Over the past 4 months, Kim’s BEST finish in a PGA event is a tie for 36th, back in March at the Valspar Championship. In that same span he’s missed the cut 4 times, including last week at the RBC Heritage Canadian Open. His last 4 starts have been as follows: CUT, T-44th, 71st, T-54th. There is just no reason to believe Tom Kim is going to come out and shoot a good score with the course conditions the way that they are. Additionally, I can’t get out of my mind last year, when he absolutely imploded later in the tournament. I think this is a HUGE misprice, as I believe Scott should be closer to -200 or -210 based on the matchup and current form. So, let’s back the veteran Master’s Champion in Adam Scott, as I believe he will easily score better than Tom Kim in round 2 today. Back Adam Scott.
Official Pick: Adam Scott -134 Over Tom Kim
Play Rating: 2-Star