College Basketball Best Bets (2/11/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 11, 2025 | 3:32 P.M. CST
Overall Season Record: 40-17 (70.2%)
Note: Another easy winner last night and our great run continues. Below are my best bets for tonight with a VERY SHORT summary as I’m posting late. Sorry for the late post, but here they are.
Best Bets:
1) Kentucky +2.5 vs. Tennessee: We are going back to the well here & taking UK over Tennessee. I actually really like this Tennessee team and I don’t think this Kentucky team is all that great overall. HOWEVER, this is just a bad matchup for Tennessee. They are a team that really struggles to score at times, and they struggle to make threes on the road. Kentucky is the 2nd best offense in the country (KenPom). So we took UK as a 10.5 point dog last time these two played at Tennessee, and UK won the game outright. Sometimes the revenge aspect is a good thing; not for this particular matchup. This matchup just benefits Kentucky in terms of what the teams are good at and their style of play. UK also didn’t even have their starting PG when they beat the Vols in Knoxville a couple weeks back; Butler IS playing tonight. So let’s roll with the Wildcats plus the short number.
Official Pick: Kentucky +2.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
2) Mississippi State +2.5 vs. Florida: I REALLY like this Florida team this season. I think they can be a legitimate Final Four team come late March, and even challenge for a National Championship. That said, this is a terrible spot for Florida. They are coming off, quite possibly the BIGGEST win in college basketball. Saturday, they went on the road to Auburn and beat the number 1 team in the country by 9 in their own building. And, they did it without Elijah Martin (2nd leading scorer for Florida). Martin is expected to play tonight, but we don’t know that for sure yet. The line absolutely indicates he IS going to play. However, if he does end up getting ruled out before game time, this is going to move at least 3 points. So there is a chance we get a better number than the market. Mississippi State has lost 3 of their last 4 games at home, which is highly abnormal for this squad. They are a legitimate 4 or 5 seed in the NCAA tournament, and they have a huge home court advantage. Primetime, against the #3 team in the country, the Hump is going to be rocking in Starkvegas. Also Josh Hubbard tends to have his best performances in the biggest games. I think he has a huge game tonight offensively. Fading teams like this off big time wins over the past couple seasons, then going on the road as a favorite - it’s been very profitable over the past couple seasons in college basketball. So, let’s fade Florida in this perfect let down spot, and ride Josh Hubbard and the Bulldogs in the Hump tonight as they will pull the outright upset.
Official Pick: Mississippi State +2.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
