College Football Best Bets (10/18/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 18, 2025 | 2:51 A.M. CST
Best Bets (Saturday)
Wyoming @ Air Force OVER 57.5
Air Force holds one of the worst defenses in the country this season. Contrary to traditional service academy teams this Air Force team has one of the highest total points per game averages in the country. Despite the fact that Air Force has had all 6 of their games reach 62 points, the market refused to adapt. We still saw totals in the 50s for most Air Force games. Last week, the market finally adjusted and we saw Air Force & UNLV’s total at 65.5. And, how many points did that game see? 99.
This week the Falcons take on one of the slower, least potent offenses in the country in the Wyoming Cowboys. When you look at the entirety of Wyoming’s season this total makes sense. Even with Air Force playing in these shootouts, Wyoming’s totals were equally low their first 3 games. However, the last 3 games the Cowboys have played, the average total has been 56 points. Air Force games have an average total of 78.3 points per game this season, and that number climbs to 81 points per game the last 3 weeks.
While I don’t think Wyoming’s offense is great, they won’t have to be against Air Force. Just last week, the Cowboys put up 28 points against San Jose State. SJSU is much closer in talent level to Air Force’s defense than any other team the Cowboys have seen this season. And, I think if we even just get in the 20s from Wyoming, we go flying over this total. I wouldn’t be shocked if this one turned into a shootout.
I’m of the motto, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it for this Air Force team. I’ve bet the over 4 consecutive weeks, and it’s resulted in 4 wins. All 6 of Air Force’s games this season have gone over the total. Until I see an Air Force game go under the total this season, I will continue backing the over.
Official Pick: Wyoming @ Air Force OVER 57.5
Play Rating: 2-Stars
Vanderbilt -2.5 vs. LSU
Vanderbilt’s only loss this season came at Alabama, who now looks like one of the best teams in the country. While the final score of that game indicated Alabama dominated, nothing could be further from the truth. In the 2nd quarter, Vanderbilt led 7-0 and was threatening to score again inside the Alabama 20 yard line. Quarterback Diego Pavia slid on a QB run, but lost the football. His shin was clearly on the turf prior to losing the football, but somehow after an official review, the ball was awarded to the Crimson Tide. They took that turnover and turned it into 7 points, completely flipping the game. Vandy actually took the lead back 14-7 with under a minute to play in the first half, and one big mistake led to Bama going the length of the field in under 50 seconds to once again tie the game. Late in the game, Vandy trailed by 9 and was threatening to score and cut it 2. Although they likely would’ve lost the game still at this point, the final score would’ve been much closer. Instead, Pavia threw a pick. And, on the following possession, Bama broke a touchdown run on a third down to score and cover the spread. Not only was it a brutal beat, but it gave a completely misguided picture of how that game went. Bama was the better team, but not by much. The game was in Tuscaloosa, and the Tide had the revenge factor on their side after getting upset last year in Nashville. If two plays or one call go the other way in that game, Vandy has a legitimate shot to pull the upset. If that’s the case, what’s the line in this game then? What’s Vanderbilt ranked at this point in that case?
Then we look at LSU. The Tigers have really been disappointing this season. While they went into Death Valley and took down the top 5 (at the time) ranked Clemson Tigers, that win has aged quite poorly. The Tigers also have two ugly conference wins at home, at night this season, in games that they likely lose on a neutral field or on the road. They easily could’ve lost to Florida, but 5 DJ Lagway interceptions, and a phantom holding call on a 95 yard TD pass by Florida allowed LSU to escape with a 20-10 win. They did the exact same thing last week against South Carolina, who was in the game from start to finish, but penalties, turnovers, and miscues led to LSU finding a way to win by double digits again.
When you look at these two teams, the truth of the matter is Vanderbilt has been the better team this season. They’ve been more dominant in their wins, and they also looked better in their loss. Additionally, LSU is coming off back to back close, tough games with a loss at Ole Miss and a win over South Carolina. Vanderbilt on the other hand, is coming off a bye. They had to sit on that Bama loss for two weeks, while they got to prepare for LSU coming to town. Now, does Vandy have a big home field advantage here? No. But they should be bigger than a field goal favorite. I made this 4.5. Additionally, what they do have is the better QB (yes, Pavia is a better college QB than Garrett Nussmeier). And, they have BY FAR the better coach in Clark Leigh. Brian Kelly hasn’t been good for a while. I think Vandy is ready to roll here, and I think they jump on LSU early, lean on the ground game, and run away with this one late. Back the Commodores to earn another program defining win over a top 10 LSU team.
Official Pick: Vanderbilt -2.5
Play Rating: 2-Stars
Additional Best Bets:
TCU -2.5 vs. Baylor: TCU coming off a loss here, and I think they are the better team. Baylor is 4-2, but could easily be 3-3. Two weeks ago they trailed by 6, with K-State driving in Baylor territory with under 5 minutes to play. A field goal likely seals the win for the Wildcats, and Avery Johnson throws a horrific pick six which allowed Baylor to escape with a 1 point win. I think TCU is the slightly better team, with the slightly better defense. Coming off a loss they should be ready to go here, knowing they MUST win to stay in the Big 12 title race. Baylor is coming off an emotional win, and this is a classic let down spot after winning a game they shouldn’t have won. Sawyer Robertson has been phenomenal, but Baylor is overvalued based on results rather than numbers. Give me TCU in this favorable spot.
Official Pick: TCU -2.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Stars
Washington +6 @ Michigan: I would love Washington over a field goal at home, because I think they’re a live dog, even on the road. The Maryland result slightly scares me, considering they trailed by 20 in the 4th quarter and somehow found a way for a miracle comeback. Despite that, Michigan is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Based on their results, if you removed their name and changed it to Northwestern, they never would be sitting here as a 6 point favorite. I think Sheron Moore is one of the worst coaches in the country. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see him out after this season (for sure after next season). Washington’s defense is very good, and they do just enough offensively to give themselves a chance to win the game outright. Catching over a field goal as a live dog, we will back the Huskies in this one on the road.
Official Pick: Washington +6 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Stars
Auburn +1 vs. Missouri (1H): This one is ugly. I mean it’s REAL UGLY. But this is one I can’t pass up. Auburn is 0-3 in SEC play. They’ve actually been the worst team in the SEC over the past 5 seasons, and under Hugh Freeze, it’s been an absolute disaster. Missouri, on the other hand, has been a pleasant surprise in that same timeframe, competing in the SEC and consistently finding themselves in the top 15. All that said, Auburn has not been horrible this season. They hung with Oklahoma, and had a lead in the second half earlier in the season on the road. If it weren’t for a late Jackson Arnold fumble they cover that game easily. Last week, the led Georgia 10-0 at halftime, before imploding in the second half. Missouri is coming off a close loss to Bama at home in what was their Super Bowl. Now, they have to get up to go on the road to 0-3 Auburn. So why are they only a 1.5 point favorite? Because it’s hard to win in the SEC, especially on the road. This game is also at night. Auburn has found a way to get leads in some of these games, but blown it in the second half, so even though I like Auburn full game, let’s back them +1 in the first half.
Official Pick: Auburn +1.5 1st Half (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Stars
South Carolina +5.5 vs. Oklahoma: This is the Gamecocks season here. Their back is against the wall, after a 3-3 start. If you remember last season, South Carolina was in this exact spot, sitting 3-3, not playing good football. Then something clicked, and they rattled off 6 straight wins to close the season. They finished 9-3 and just two spots away from reaching the college football playoff. You know that’s all the talk in the locker room is Columbia, SC this week. On the other hand, OU was given a dose of reality last week against their arch rival in the Texas Longhorns. That reality is that they are nowhere near a top 5 team in the country. The schedule only gets tougher after this week. Additionally, they have Bama on deck, followed by Ole Miss, and Texas A&M. This is by far the easiest game they have on their schedule, and after that Texas loss it would be easy to overlook the Gamecocks. Lastly, John Mateer looked nowhere near 100% last week. The injury to his throwing thumb looked to affect his accuracy, leading to three interceptions. I’m going to fade him, Venables, and the Sooners here, as I think South Carolina pulls the outright upset.
Official Pick: South Carolina +5.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Stars
