Author: Dylan Lieck | October 30, 2026 | 3:17 P.M. CST
Best Bet: Baylor Bears -1.5 vs. UCF Knights
It’s incredible the amount things can change in college football in just a two-week span. Heading into week 7 the Baylor Bears were 4-1, and coming off a 55-19 domination of the Arizona State Sun Devils (a game Baylor was a 3 point dog). At that point, the Bears were legitimately one inch away from being a perfect 5-0, and a contender in the Big 12. Two weeks later, the Bears sit 4-3, with a fired head coach. Now Dave Aranda has been on the hot seat in Waco for what seems like an eternity. Aranda had one year of success in which the Bears won the Big 12, upsetting TCU in the Big 12 title game back in 2021.
But firing Aranda is a big reason I like this spot for Baylor tonight. It’s just a perfect spot for them. You have a Baylor team coming off back-to-back losses, with their backs against the wall, with an interim head coach. On the other side you have a UCF team coming off their biggest win in program history (from a rankings perspective). They knocked off #2 BYU last week in double overtime, 39-31. Well, that win would be impressive, if BYU wasn’t actually outside the top 10 in every credible bettor’s power rankings heading into that week. And speaking of spots, that Knights win was over a BYU team in one of the worst spots of the season. The #2 Cougars were coming in off their biggest win in program history. They knocked off #2 Notre Dame the week prior, at home in front of a sold out crowd, with college gameday there; and, the game came down to the final play. BYU had to then go cross country to play 3-3 UCF in a very modest environment comparatively. So I give UCF credit for the win, but with how I view BYU, and the spot, that win is much less impressive. And, when you look at the remainder of UCF’s schedule this season, they have literally not a single impressive thing on their resume. Their claim to fame before the BYU upset was leading by double digits against Houston, before blowing that lead and not even covering as double digit underdogs.
I also really liked what I heard from Baylor’s new interim head coach, Defensive Coordinator Joe Klanderman. He talked about allowing OC Jake Spavital to have more creative freedom with the offense. I think you have the perfect recipe for a team playing with nothing to lose, with new confidence. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some fresh offensive looks from Baylor, as we really don’t know how much Spavital was held back under Aranda.
When you look at the game on paper, the Bears have a distinct edge on the defensive side of the ball. They are excellent defensively, especially against the run, where they rank top 15 nationally in both EPA and Success Rate defense. And when you look at what the Knights want to do offensively, it's to keep it on the ground. They’ve been playing with a backup QB all season, in Keyone Jenkins. And while Jenkins actually played well in his past few starts, he’s a middling (at best) P4 QB when playing against Big 12 defenses (which for the most part, aren't good). I know he had a solid game against BYU last week, but in addition to the horrific spot, BYU also was missing a number of key guys to injury, which I believe did play a factor in UCF being able to move the ball so easily. So I give a distinct advantage to Baylor defensively.
This is just a spot that screams Baylor. The line screams Baylor when it opens Bears +1.5. The numbers show a relatively even matchup, but I believe the strengths of UCF are negated by what Baylor does well. And, while the Baylor offense has struggled, I think the firing of Aranda will especially show itself on the offensive side (in a good way). We’ve also got some good market confirmation here, with this line getting taken across zero from Baylor +1.5 to Baylor -1.5. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this close at 2.5, so I’d take it before it moves anymore. But give me the Bears. I think the defense does its job, and the offense does just enough to get the Bears a TD win.
Official Pick: Baylor -120 ML (Play to -2.5)
Play Rating: 3%
BONUS BET: Gavin Freeman (Baylor) Over 85.5 Receiving Yards -117
