College Football Week 3 Best Bets (9/19/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 19, 2026 | 1:50 A.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) NC State +3.5 @ Vanderbilt: I am no CJ Bailey fan - in fact I don’t think he’s good at all. But this is just a bad matchup for Vanderbilt. NC State is more talented than a Vandy team that struggled with Delaware at home last week. I think we just have a talent mismatch here. NC State got spanked by Virginia week 1 and I believe that is factoring into the number here. It shouldn’t though - Virginia is one of the best teams in the ACC and will compete for a conference title. Let’s back NC State +3.5 (play to +3).
2) LSU @ Ole Miss OVER 57.5: I don’t love betting highly emotional games. But I do think we have an edge here in the total. We have two teams that are extremely high powered on offense, with good but not great defenses. I think we have an advantage on the offensive side of the ball with each side. Ole Miss arguably has the best QB and best RB in the entire SEC, maybe the best duo on the country. On the otherside, LSU has an elite dual threat QB in Sam Leavitt. I have a hard time seeing either offense being held down in this game. Additionally, I have a hard time seeing either team slowing down if they are up late. Ole Miss is going to want to absolutely lay it on LSU late if they can. Likewise, we know Kiffin would love nothing more than to win by three touchdowns. I think we see a tight game down the stretch, but I would say, at worst we see a backdoor over with one team punching it in late. There’s a decent chance this game is played in the thirties, especially after what we saw from Ole Miss’ defense in the second half of that game against Louisville (bust after bust in coverage). And that was against a far inferior offense compared to this LSU Tiger offense. Take the over 57.5 (play to 58.5).
3) SMU @ Louisville over 58.5: Similarly to the previous breakdown, we have two offenses that are elite against two defenses that are relatively average. Specifically, Louisville is an over team for me this season, after what I saw against Ole Miss. If Jeff Brohm takes the training wheels off (which he did against Ole Miss) they have a dual threat QB and plenty of weapons around him that can allow this offense to be extremely high powered. I loved what I saw from them against Ole Miss in the second half. SMU we know has the QB to put up points, and from what I saw against a very poor FSU squad, I don’t believe the defense is all that great. I like points here, so let’s back two really good QBs in this matchup to put up points as well. Take over 58.5 (Play to 59.5).
4) Virginia Tech -3 @ Maryland: I’ll fade Maryland anytime I can. And I love to do it against a coach in James Franklin who is elite at beating bad/average teams. He’s terrible in big games, and horrific against elite competition. But against the caliber of team that Maryland is? He’s about as good as there is. I think this line is extremely mis-priced. I made this VT -6.5, so from a math perspective we have a big edge. So let’s back the Hokies to run away with this one in the second half. Back VT -3.
Best Bets Recap:
Official Picks: NC State +3.5, Ole Miss/LSU Over 57.5, Louisville/SMU Over 58.5, VT -3
All plays: 3%
Other Opinions: Arizona State -5.5, Texas State/North Texas Over, South Carolina/MSST Over 59.5
