College Hoops Best Bets (1/15/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 15, 2025 | 4:29 P.M. CST
Last Night: 1-0 (Arizona/Baylor Over 147) | College Basketball Record: 19-5 (79.2%)
Best Bets Tonight:
1) Oklahoma -2 vs. Texas
Both teams come into this game DESPERATE for a conference win, as both sit winless in SEC play (both 0-3). Oklahoma had a phenomenal start to the season with 13 straight wins to open the year. They were ranked as high as top 10 in the country, but they’ve now dropped 3 consecutive games. Despite losing three straight, OU has some great wins on their schedule thus far. They have wins over Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan (all 3 of which are tournament teams). Additionally, the 3 losses the Sooners suffered were all at the hands of tournament teams as well, and two of the three came on the road. Alabama and Georgia (the two road losses) are teams with a combined record of 26-5. Their other loss came at home to 13-4 Texas A&M, a game the Sooners led by 9 at halftime, and very well should have won.
Texas on the other hand, comes in 11-5, also 0-3 in conference play. Despite having 11-wins overall and a decent record, the Longhorns played a very weak schedule in the non-conference. Moreover, the only teams ranked in the top 35 in the kenpom they’ve played, they lost to; they are 0-5 vs. the KP top 35. Their best win, according to KenPom, was a win over St. Joseph’s (who is ranked 91st in KP). Every single time the Longhorns have stepped up in class, they’ve lost. And to be honest, only one of those games was remotely close. They lost to Ohio State & UCONN in the non-conference & neither game did the Longhorns really compete. Their first conference opponent was Texas A&M on the road, who they lost to by 20. The final score against Auburn looks like the game was close, but Auburn led by 20 late in the second half and took their foot off the gas entirely, allowing UT to comeback and make that score look closer than the game actually was; Texas was DOMINATED in that game for 34 of the 40 minutes in their own building. They then got to play Tennessee at home the next time out; and they got Tennessee after a 30+ point loss for the Vols where their confidence was at an all-time low. Texas had every opportunity to win the game as Tennessee could not make a jump shot to save their life early in the game. But of course, the Longhorns lack of late game execution cost them the win.
Lastly, we look at the factors beyond the player matchups here. This game is being played in Norman. And while the Sooners don’t have the greatest home court advantage in college basketball, students should be back on campus at this time and we should see the arena sold out for what is a very important game for their team (not to mention it’s a rivalry game). Additionally, when we look at the coaching matchup, there’s a DISTINCT advantage to Oklahoma. Rodney Terry is easily the worst coach in the SEC, and quite possibly in the entire group of teams throughout Power 4 conferences. He has his job, solely due to Chris Beard scandal, and the Horns have gotten worse each year since then. On the other side, Porter Mosure is one of the more underrated coaches in the country. I believe it’s only a matter of time before he has Oklahoma competing for conference titles. He’s obviously been to a final four with Loyola Chicago, and his in game coaching is no match for Rodney Terry. I love everything about this matchup, as Texas will rely solely on 1v1 & high pick and roll, while OU will be running good offense and sets to get guys great looks.
Official Pick No. 1: Oklahoma Sooners -2
Play Rating: 2-Star
2) Davidson -1 vs. La Salle
We’re going to look to fade a team who overperformed over the weekend. The Explorers came into the weekend 8-7, facing a St. Bonnies team on their home floor; a team that had been very good so far this season. But La Salle was able to hang in there punch for punch with the Wolves of St. Bonaventure, taking them to OT. Late in the game the Bonnies had the ball and a 2 point lead, and their starting PG missed a WIDE OPEN layup, as well as an easy tip in off that miss to give the Bonnies a 4-point lead, and likely end the game. La Salle gathered the rebound and held for one shot, trailing by two. After the ball was poked out of the hands of guard Deuce Jones’ hands, the Explorers were forced to call timeout with just 4.1 seconds remaining. Out of the timeout a busted play resulted in the ball finding Jones again, and Jones threw up a running, one footed three pointer that somehow banked in at the buzzer, to give La Salle the upset victory over the Bonnies.
Diving back into the score of that game, La Salle really out performed their season long metrics. They shot 39% from the three point line, making a total of 13 threes (including the game winner). Heading into that game, the Exploreres were 250th in the country making less than 33% of their threes on the season. Additionally, La Salle does a good job taking care of the basketball (55th in country in TO% coming into that game). However, they took it to another level vs. the Wolves, as they turned it over just 6 times the ENTIRE game, and that included a 5 minute overtime period. They were also outside the top 250 in the country in TO% forced, and yet they were able to put up 27 points off TO’s in this game. So, overall point being, this team did a lot of things they don’t normally do. Yet, they still needed a running, one-footed, banked three pointer at the buzzer to beat St. Bonaventure. And while the Bonnies are a good team, they aren’t anything SPECIAL, and probably played their worst defensive game of the season.
With all that said, we now have this team who clearly overperformed last time out, coming off an emotional win, as a huge underdog. Now they go back home, and they are taking on a very disciplined Davidson team, but not one that you’re going to get excited to play against. Davidson plays very boring basketball. They want to play at a very slow pace (248th in adjusted tempo). They are going to make this a slow, grinded out game; they’re going to run their offense, run the clock and get great looks. They don’t turn the ball over (top 25 in country in TO%) and they shoot the ball at a high percentage overall and from three. La Salle is going to try to play fast and speed the tempo up, but it’s much easier to slow a team down than it is to speed them up. Not to mention this is a huge mismatch in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency. Davidson comes in as a top 85 offense (out of 334 teams), where as La Salle is outside the top 175 in defensive efficiency. I expect Davidson to have significant success on offense. And, while Davidson is not great defensively (outside top 180 in defensive efficiency), I’m not sure this La Salle team has enough to outperform expectations for a second consecutive games, especially off that emotional high. Let’s roll with Davidson here at a cheap price.
Official Pick No. 2: Davidson -1
Play Rating: 2-Star
