College Hoops Best Bet (2/5/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 5, 2025 | 3:05 P.M. CST
Quick Summary:
Yesterday: 0-1-1: Tough one yesterday in the Northwestern game. We led, and covered for 39 of 40 minutes and ended up with a late game push. Up 15 with 9 minutes to go, at home, laying only 2 you expect to win 95% of the time. NW’s leading scorer over the past 5 games got injured with about 8 minutes to go, and the sub that was forced into action ended up costing them big late in the game. Still led by 6 with under a minute to play and should’ve easily covered. Regardless, we were due for a bad beat, and at least we pushed it.
BYU was a loss: I initially was going to stay away from that game, specifically because Caleb Love has been so streaky that if he had a big night I knew it would be tough for BYU to win, but saw some big money coming in on the Cougs, and late public money drove it back down to a good price, so pulled the trigger. It was the wrong side, as Arizona played great in a hostile environment. BYU had chances to build a lead early and didn’t do it, and it ultimately cost them late
Overall Season Record: 30-13 (69.8%)
Tonight’s Best Bets:
1) Central Florida ML vs. Cincinnati:
I backed Central Florida on Saturday and they proved to be my only loss of the day on a 4-1 card, however we’re going to go back to the well one more time tonight (albeit an empty well). This number is off in my opinion. You have two teams struggling mightily in Big 12 play, with both teams losing 4 of their last 5, and Cinci losing 4 straight. And, so I guess the idea with the market move in FAVOR of Cinci is the idea that you take the points when two teams struggling like this face off. However, this is a home game for UCF and my numbers make Central Florida -1.5 on a neutral against this Bearcats team. With home court factored in I made UCF 4.7, and we’re currently laying 2? Additionally, KP is pretty close to my number, they make this number 4 as well. UCF is currently ranked 5 spots higher in the KP.
Then we look at these two teams body’s of work. First UCF, who comes into this game with what I believe to be a much better chance at making the NCAA tournament. Currently, UCF is 63rd in the NET, 56th in KenPom. However, they have some really good wins on their resume. Missing one of their leading scorers early in the season, they knocked off Texas A&M (ranked 15th in KP). They also have a MASSIVE win in conference play, going into Lubbock and knocking off Texas Tech on the road (currently ranked 9th in KP). That’s two wins over top 15 teams, and obviously both Quad 1 victories. Then you look at their losses, and they have ONE loss all year to a team currently projected not to make the NCAA tourney (loss vs LSU, which still isn’t a terrible loss). Cinci, on the other hand, doesn’t have any terrible losses either. But they do have losses to some of the middling teams in the Big 12: Kansas State, Utah, & WVU (after DeVries went out). More importantly, though, they have ZERO quality wins. In fact, their only two conference wins came against Arizona State and Colorado, two of the worst teams in the Big 12. They are also WINLESS (0-6) in Quad 1 games, and tonight, on the road at a top 75 team is considered a Q1 game. It’s going to be extremely difficult for Cinci to find it’s way into the NCAA tournament with their current resumé, even currently being ranked slightly higher than UCF in the NET. UCF on the other hand, could definitely find their way into the mix with a win tonight. That would get them to 5 wins in the Big 12, with plenty more winnable games on their schedule, as well as Q1 opportunities.
Then looking at the matchup, it’s going to be tough for Cinci to keep up. This UCF team isn’t an ELITE offensive unit, but they are a very good perimeter shooting team. Over 41% of their FG attempts come from beyond the three-point line, and that’s defending three-pointers is the weakest part of Cinci’s defense. UCF is going to find success tonight shooting the ball from beyond the arc. On the other side, Cinci is one of the worst offensive teams at the P4 level. Specifically they are HORRIBLE shooting the ball: 278th in 3FG%, 342nd in FT%, 208th in eFG%. It’s just a team that struggles to put the ball in the basket. If UCF is scoring at the rate they normally do, it’s going to be very difficult for Cinci to keep up. I believe that’s what happens tonight, and I think UCF gets it done on their home floor relatively easily.
Official Pick: UCF ML (-130)
Play Rating: 2-Star
Non-Official Late Night OPINION: Stanford ML vs. Wake Forest
I went to Wake Forest on Saturday, and thankfully we went Moneyline, because anyone who went Wake Forest -2.5 ended up on SVP’s Bad Beats segment Monday night. We’re going to do the same thing (go ML) here but we’re actually going to fade the Demon Deacons tonight. Wake Forest has been good to me over the past couple seasons, as I’ve had a pretty good feel for how they’ve trended week-to-week under Steve Forbes (Wake HC).
I actually really like this Stanford team, and I have been higher than anyone on their new Head Coach (Kyle Smith) than anyone. Smith started his career at Columbia before getting the head job at San Francisco. Although he didn’t get to an NCAA tournament at SF he won 20+ games in all three seasons heading the Dons, and finished no worse than 4th in the WAC in his 3 seasons. He then took the head job at Washington State, where he spent 5 seasons. Last year was his final season at Wazzu, as he led the Cougars to 25 wins, finishing 2nd in the Pac-12, and ultimately earning his first ever NCAA tournament appearance as a head coach. That turned out to be a win over a good Drake team in the first round, before a Round of 32 exit. Smith then took the Stanford job, and he’s preceded to lead the Cardinal to 15 wins through their first 22 games; the Cardinal did not win 15 games TOTAL in any of the last 4 seasons. Smith has them squarely in the mix for an NCAA tournament birth.
What I like specifically about that Stanford has really IMPROVED over the course of their season, and they are playing their best basketball as of late. They are 6-2 in their last 8 games, including a road win at North Carolina. They have also been excellent at home, going 12-1 this season in true home games. Their only home loss came back in November and was a very odd loss to Cal Poly. Now, Stanford did lose their last time out, and it wasn’t pretty. They got spanked by SMU in Dallas by 20+ points. However, Stanford was coming in off a 4 game win streak, traveling to Dallas to take an an SMU team that desperately needed that win. Stanford came out cold and got down big early and it never was a game. I chalk that one up to a bad performance on the road, in a longer travel spot than normal, where they have been much worse this season. I believe they will bounce back tonight.
Wake has also been very subpar on the road this season. They’re 3-4 overall in true road games, and their 3 road wins have come against three of the worst teams in the ACC: Syracuse, Virginia Tech, & Miami. When they’ve stepped up in class on the road, they’ve struggled mightily. They are 3-0 against teams with below .500 records in conference play; they are 0-4 against teams with conference records of .500 or better. Stanford comes into this game 7-4 in ACC play. So that bodes well for the Cardinal and poorly for the Deacs in this spot. I made this number Stanford -3.7. We currently sit Stanford -2. So, the number is definitely off here as well.
Lastly, from a matchup persepctive, I think this favors Stanford as well. I know that the Deacs beat the Cardinal in their first matchup in Winston Salem, but it’s a much different game on the road. Additionally, Wake shot the ball above their season average from 2FGs and the FT line in their first matchup, while Stanford shot significantly worse than normal. I think we will see some regression to the mean here. Stanford isn’t great defensively, but Wake REALLY struggles to score at times. Obviously Hunter Sallis is a star and can go off at any moment. But they often rely on him to make some very difficult shots. He made some ridiculous buckets down the stretch against Pittsburgh, Saturday, that I’m not sure are repeatable in the long run. If Stanford can do enough to slow down Sallis and Chase Hildreth, who had a big game Saturday as well, I think the Cardinal will find more offense this go around, at home, in a more comfortable environment. One last tidbit - Wake likes to go zone at times to confuse the opponent. That’s not a good recipe against Stanford, as they have some really good knock down shooters. It’s going to be important for Stanford to hit some threes early against that zone and get Wake to stick in man-to-man. That will present matchup problems for Wake on the interior, who is not deep whatsoever, and will need to rely on 1v1 defense without fouling to get the win. I like Stanford in this matchup to even up the season series with the Deacs. Give me the Cardinal at home on the ML, laying a cheap price to get us to the window tonight.
Official Pick: Stanford ML (-125)
Play Rating: N/A (NOT OFFICIAL PICK)
