College Hoops FREE Mid-Major PICK of the Night (1/27/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 27, 2025 | 7:58 P.M. CST
This is NOT an official play. I went 2-1 on my official plays Saturday. Saturday night it looked like we were going to go a perfect 3-0 and get back to 75% on the season (which is absurd). However, one of the craziest collapses I’ve seen in all my years of college basketball happened. Kansas (catching 1.5) had an 83% free throw shooter shooting 2 FTs with under 20 seconds to go, leading by 6. They missed both FTs, gave up a 3, turned it over, and gave up another 3, all in the final 18 seconds. Now, full disclosure, we also won on Texas ML and they trailed by 22 in the second half. So it absolutely evened out. However, with all the bad beats we’ve had over the years, after finally getting one to go your way, you don’t expect to give it back the same day.
Regardless, below is my free pick of the night. I’m going to try to release some more unofficial plays for the website going forward, just to provide more content. If you do play these as actual bets, I recommend doing so at a significantly lower size than you would play a normal play of mine.
Free Pick of the Night: Texas A&M CC +4.5 (1ST HALF) vs. McNeese State
This is the battle of the best two teams in the Southland Conference. McNeese comes into the game a perfect 9-0 in conference play, while A&M Corpus Christi comes in 7-2, sitting in 2nd place in the conference. In all likelihood, we will see these two teams playing each other again in the Southland Conference Tournament Championship in a little over a month, with a trip with the NCAA tournament on the line. And, while I expect this McNeese group to get back to the NCAA Tourney once again this season, tonight is a different story.
Yes A&M CC is the inferior team here, but not by as much as this line indicates. As good as McNeese has been over the past couple seasons, this team isn’t quite as good as last year’s team that a lot of people picked as a Cinderella team (only to see them blown out in round 1 by Gonzaga). On the other hand, this A&M CC program is no stranger to the NCAA tournament themselves. They’ve reached the Big Dance twice the last three seasons. Therefore, the Islanders are not going to come into this game intimidated by the talent of this McNeese team. They know this is the biggest game of the season, thus far, and they will be ready to roll.
The Islanders don’t have the greatest home court advantage in terms of crowd noise or attendance, but it is a bit of a weird trip to Corpus Christi, Texas. And, we’ve seen the Islanders have lots of success at home this season (and over the past 4 years). This year, the Islanders have just one loss at home, and that came nearly two months ago to Lamar. Additionally, last year when McNeese State traveled to Corpus, it took a buzzer beater for the Cowboys to escape with a ONE POINT win. They did get the outright W, but they failed to come anywhere near covering a number. And keep in mind, that was a much better version of this McNeese State team. They went 30-3 overall, 17-1 in Southland Conference play, and they won the Southland regular season & conference tourney.
In addition to the spot here, I also like the matchup. The Islanders of A&M CC are the far superior 3-point shooting team. Coming into this game they are top 90 in the country (out of 364 teams), knocking down 35.4% of their triples. On the other side, McNeese is just 215th in the country from beyond the arc, knocking down LESS than 33% of their threes. The Islanders, being at home, being the better shooting team, and playing a team in McNeese who’s very average defending the three (125th in country in opponent 3-point FG% Defense), should give A&M CC a decent advantage here. Obviously, three-point shooting is not the end-all, be-all in college basketball. However, in a spot where you are looking at a dog of this size, and trying to make a case for a live dog, getting the significantly better shooting team at home is a great positional play.
Now, I really think A&M Corpus Christi is a live dog here. However, because of the way McNeese plays, and the fact that they DO have a significant overall talent advantage here, I’m going to look to the FIRST HALF here. The main reason being, I BELIEVE if Texas A&M CC gets down big in the first half, they are going to get blown out anyway, and they will NOT cover 8.5. However, there is a world where A&M CC is up or covering at halftime and blows it. But, their best shot to win and cover is to keep it close or have a small lead at halftime. Therefore, catching 5 points, I think we’re getting great value taking them in the first half. Additionally, the Islanders are one of the absolute WORST free throw shooting teams in the country (362nd out of 364 teams). And if the game is close in the second half, FT shooting tends to play a role. McNeese isn’t GREAT from the line, but they shoot it around 72%, while A&MCC shoots it at an abysmal 60%. If you like this breakdown, and wanted to go with A&M CC FULL GAME, I have no argument against it, I just believe the FIRST HALF is a slightly better play. I made this game line 6.5, which is where it opened. It’s currently 8.5. So my numbers show 2 points of value. But again, let’s ride with the first half. Take the ISLANDERS plus the points in the first half. If you want to have a little more fun, throw a few bucks on them MONEYLINE at +300
FREE PICK OF THE NIGHT: Texas A&M Corpus Christi +5 1H
Play Rating: None (Free Play, Not Official Client Play)
