Monday Night Football Best Bet (10/5/26)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 5, 2026 | 9:34 A.M. CST

Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

Well, it’s not going to be a surprise which way we look in this one. I have been finding great spots to take overs early in this NFL season. I believe unders have hit at a significantly higher rate this year. Because of that, we’re seeing totals placed relatively low across the board, and that includes when we get two good offenses meeting, like we have here. I think this game is also mispriced because we have an Atlanta team that played it’s first two games with a 3rd string QB. While I don’t think Michael Pennix is good by any means, he’s still a significant step up from Cooper Rush. We saw that in week 3, as the Falcons offense finally woke up against the Green Bay Packers. When you look at the Falcons offense, the only actual issue IS the QB position. They have an incredible set of skill position players, with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. They also have a pretty solid offensive line. Michael Pennix essentially has a top 10 NFL offense served on a silver platter to him, and as long as he doesn’t play as bad as Cooper Rush, there’s no reason to think they won’t have plenty of success tonight. The Saints defense, on the other hand, has been anything but good. They were torched week 1 by the Lions. Although they only gave up 17 points week 2 to the Ravens, they still allowed 5.6 yards per play. And then week 3, the Raiders put up 35 points on this unit. Now they go up against an offense trending in the right direction with a ton of weapons. I would be shocked if we don’t see the Falcons consistently move the ball against this unit.

On the other side, the Falcons defense is a very middling unit. They had some success last week against the Green Bay Packers. But the Packers have proved that they are a bottom 10 offense through the first 4 weeks. The Saints should have no problem moving the ball on Atlanta. Tyler Shough has been slinging it all over the yard the first 3 weeks, and he’s got plenty of targets to go to. Add in that it’s the 20th anniversary of the blocked punt by Steve Gleason following Hurricane Katrina and the re-opening of the SuperDome.

With all of that said, we’re going to play two things here. We’re going to take Atlanta Team Total Over 23.5 points, and we’re going to go with the game over 47.5.

Official Picks: Falcons Team Total Over 23.5 | Saints/Falcons Over 47.5

Play Ratings: 3%