Moneyline Parlay of the Day (3/4/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 4, 2025 | 4:27 P.M.
We nailed our last one, so now 1-1 on the ML Favorite Parlays since posting them (6-2 overall since I started the experiment).
Moneyline Favorites Parlay (5-Teams)
1) Creighton -490 vs. Seton Hall: Creighton is a weird team, and they’ve had an up and down year. However, they have plenty of talent on that roster. Seton Hall does not. They are one of the worst power 5 teams I’ve seen in the last half-decade. This should be closer to -1000, but they have to correlate it with the line
Win Probability: 89.9%
2) Memphis -425 @ UTSA: I actually haven’t hated what I’ve seen out of UTSA the last month. They haven’t won a lot of games, but they’ve been close in a ton of games. The problem is, they can hang (talent wise) with everyone else in the conference. But the talent gap here between them and Memphis is massive. Additionally, even though this is UTSA’s last home game, they already had Senior Night a few nights ago. And, they went out and won that game to break a long losing streak. That was the big one they wanted. This is a bad spot, and they are completely outmatched.
Win Probability: 85.4%
3) Purdue -700 vs. Rutgers: Purdue seems to have gotten on track lately. This game is at home in Mackey Arena, where the Boilermakers have been virtually unbeatable the last couple seasons. They have lost a couple times there this year, but not to a team the quality of Rutgers. Worst case scenario, Dylan Harper & Ace Bailey play phenomenal and it’s close late, and the crowd wills Purdue to a victory. Best case scenario, Purdue jumps on them early and runs away with it. Either way, there’s a very low probability Purdue drops a home game here.
Win Probability: 86.7%
4) Boise State -1500 @ Air Force: Even if you just extrapolate out odds of Air Force winning ANY game in conference this season, you are sitting at roughly 6% (1-17). Yes, it’s on the road, but not in a hostile environment. And Boise State knows they CANNOT drop this game if they want to go dancing. They are squarely on the bubble and a loss to Air Force would knock them out for good. They will be focused tonight, and they will take care of Air Force easily.
Win Probability: 95.6%
5) Colorado State -1600 vs. San Jose State: Colorado State is playing as good, if not better, than anyone in the MW right now. They have won 5 straight, and 10 of their last 12. The only losses in that stretch came at New Mexico and at Utah State, the two best teams in the conference. San Jose State hasn’t been terrible, but they lost to this CSU team by 22 at home over a month ago. Now, they have to go to CSU who is playing for seeding in the MW tourney and trying to play themselves into the NCAA Tournament conversation. It’s tough to play on the road against CSU for good teams in the MW. San Jose State is not great. This will be an easy win for CSU
Win Probability: 94.3%
Parlay Edge:
Parlay Win Probability: 60.0%
Parlay Odds: -108 (51.9%)
Edge: +8.1%
