NFL Best Bet Thursday Night Football (9/18/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 18, 2025 | 10:10 A.M. CST

We’ve had a rough start to the NFL, but the reality is we’ve been on the right side of almost every wager. We’ve had a few bad breaks, but mathematically we will continue to make the right bets and in the long run it will churn a positive outcome. Let’s bounce back tonight

Best Bet: Dolphins/Bills OVER 49 (play to 51.5)

Tonight we’re going to back the OVER in the Dolphins vs. Bills matchup. From a math standpoint, the fact that the Dolphins are laying over 10 points is mind boggling, and yet I still have a tough time backing them, largely because I’m not sure if this team is about to quit on McDaniels. I can tell you from a power ratings perspective, the number is WAY too high. But I need to see what the team looks like over the next week or two after starting 0-2.

That said, I still love the over in this spot. The Bills are nursing some key injuries on the defensive side of the ball, including star LB Matt Milano, who is out for this contest. Additionally, as bad as the Dolphins have looked the first two weeks, they did look much better offensively against the Patriots. This Bills defense isn’t a juggernaut by any means, and I think the Dolphins will be able to find success tonight on offense.

On the other side, nothing tells me that the Dolphins have any ability to slow down this Bills offense. Josh Allen and company have been rolling, and the Phins have been autrocious on defense against two much worse offenses in the Colts & Pats. I think the Bills will be able to do whatever they want on the offensive end tonight, in a comfortable environment at home.

Official Pick: Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills OVER 49 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

Note: This has already moved to 49.5 and a lot of books, it’s going to continue to move so play it as early as possible. Play it up to 51.5 (52 is a key number so if it hits 52, it’s a no go).