NFL Best Bets (10/19/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 19, 2025 | 8:37 A.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins:
The Miami Dolphins are an absolute dumpster fire this season, and it’s only trending down. Mike McDaniel is one bad loss away from losing his job, and the players don’t seem to care one bit. They already have multiple key injuries on the defensive side, and they lost Tyreek Hill for the season a few weeks ago. They come into this game 1-5. The Browns come into the game 1-5 as well, but they’ve actually been phenomenal defensively this season. The issue has been on the offensive end. I am happy to throw out last week’s loss, as they were coming back from London, which is always a tough spot. While I don’t love Dillon Gabriel (in fact I think he’s awful), I actually prefer him going against this pathetic Miami defense, over Tua going against this top 5 Browns defense. Additionally, I love this spot due to the weather. It’s supposed to be nasty in Cleveland today, and we should see tons of rain. That’s a recipe for DISASTER for Tua. He’s always struggled against elite defenses. And he’s always struggled in weather. We’re getting BOTH of these today. This is one of my favorite spots of the year. Let’s back the Browns and lay anything less than a field goal.
Official Pick: Browns -2.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 4-Star
2) Philadelphia Eagles -1 @ Minnesota Vikings
I don’t typically like taking short road favorites like this, but I’m okay doing it here for two reasons. One, I love the Eagles coming off two consecutive losses. While I don’t think they are the same team they were last year, I do think they BELIEVE they are just as good. And that means we are going to get a very motivated team who does not want to lose 3 straight. I believe we get a really focused effort from Jalen Hurts and the passing game. Secondly, I love this spot because I love fading Carson Wentz off a good performance. Wentz is one of the most inconsistent players in the league, and he almost never has multiple good outings in a row. I think he’s due for some regression here. While the Eagles defense hasn’t been great, they are opportunistic, and it wouldn’t surprise me here to see Wentz commit some turnovers and negative plays. I don’t love this as much as I love the Browns today, but I do think this is a good spot for Phili, and I think the Eagles off two straight losses will bounce back and find a way to get a win here. Note that the line has dropped from 2.5 all the way to 1, so we definitely have some value now getting this at essentially a pick’em.
Official Pick: Eagles -1 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
3) Detroit Lions -6 vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
The Bucs come into this game with a 5-1 record, a game ahead of the Lions in the NFC, but the 4-2 Lions are clearly the better overall football team. The Bucs have been phenomenal in close games, winning each of their first 3 games on the final play of the game. Baker Mayfield has been nothing short of fantastic thus far this season, but there’s only so much he can do as the injuries continue to pile up. Chris Godwin will be out Monday night. Emeka Egbuka and Mike Evans are both dealing with hamstring injuries and are questionable for tomorrow night. If either (or both) do go, who knows how healthy they will actually be. Not to mention, the risk of re-injury for both with that type of injury is very high. You’d imagine any tweak of the hamstring for either guy would lead the Bucs to sit them the rest of the game. The Lions also come into this game in a good spot. They are coming off a loss to the Chiefs last week, a game they were thouroughly outplayed start to finish. They will be looking to bounce back here, and Dan Campbell off a loss has been great as a head coach in Detroit. This Lions team lost week 1 against the Green Bay Packers on the road (same as last week), then came back week 2 and absolutely spanked the Chicago Bears. The Lions were 6 points favorites in that game and won 52-21. While I don’t think the Lions are going to win by 30, I do think they have a distinct advantage in this one. If the Bucs were totally healthy, I still think the Lions should be around a 5.5 to 6 point favorite. But, the Bucs are NOT healthy, and I don’t believe this line is fully indicitive of the current rosters trotting out there Monday night. This line really should be at least 7. I could argue (if Egbuka and Evans both don’t go) that it could even be 7.5 or 8. That said, even if both of those guys end up playing, I think we are getting value here laying anything less than a touchdown. The Lions offense should have their way with a Bucs defense that relies on the blitz more than any other defense in football. There are too many weapons for the Lions, and the O-Line is too good. Plus, the Lions have had an extra day to prepare for the Bucs blitz packages, with this game being on Monday Night. I LOVE the Lions in this spot, so let’s lay the 6. Even if it gets to 6.5 I still like it a lot. The only number I wouldn’t actually lay is 7, but there’s 6 across the board out there right now.
Official Pick: Lions -6 (-110)
Play Rating: 4-Star
