Author: Dylan Lieck | September 27, 2026 | 10:57 A.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) Teaser: Lions PK vs. Jets | Bucs +7.5 vs. Vikings
This is my favorite teaser of the week. I love the Lions in this spot against a Jets team that will likely finish the season with less than 5 wins. Aaron Glenn got a win week 1 to go over .500 for the first time at any point in his coaching career (in a season). That didn’t last long though. Glenn’s team blew a large 4th quarter lead to the Packers at home last week. There were some big mistakes by Glenn late in that game that could’ve cost them the game but didn’t (clock mismanagement & lack of situational awareness). Regardless, I think that loss is a tough pill to swallow. This Jets team thought they were going to be 2-0 after everyone picked them to finish dead last in the NFL. Instead, you blow it in overtime, and now have to go on the road to play the Lions. And if we think Glenn is the worst coach in the league, and Dan Campbell and Glenn are familiar with each other (Glenn was his former DC), then it’s advantage Lions from strategic perspective. I think the Lions will cover the 6, but that defense is NOT GOOD in Detroit, and I don’t trust them to not get backdoored late, which is why we’re going to a teaser.
This is a desperate Bucs team that nobody thought would start the season 0-3, and yet they’re on the verge of doing that if they drop this one to the Vikings. I like that the Bucs are at home here, and I like that this is essentially a must win. On the other side, the Vikings are lucky to be 2-0. They lost their starting QB 11 snaps into the game week 1. Carson Wentz comes in and somehow orchestrates back-to-back wins. That said, the second win came down to the final play, and they also didn’t have to face Caleb Williams in the 4th quarter. Now they have to go down to Florida to play in the heat and humidity. They’re happy to be 2-0. Kyler Murray comes back, and with another 2 weeks off and limited pre-season action, what does the continuity and fluidity look like? I just don’t see it. I think the Bucs win this game outright, but that’s why I love this teaser leg so much. Even if the Bucs have a BAD GAME, which I don’t think will happen. Being at home, being in desperation mode, and going against a Vikings offense that likely won’t play GREAT, I don’t see how the Vikings ever win by more than a TD.
Official Pick (2 Team 6 Point Teaser): Lions PK + Bucs +7.5
Play Rating: 4%
2) Teaser: Bills -1 vs. Chargers | 49ers -2.5 vs. Cardinals
Last year, going with 7 to 8.5 point favorites in teasers was rough. So far this year we are seeing a regression to the mean. We’re going through the 7 and the 3 on both legs, and I think we have a significant advantage in both games. I’ve watched every snap from the LA Chargers this season, and it makes you want to jump off a cliff. I knew the offense was in trouble the second they hired MIke McDaniel as their OC. To make matters worse, they refuse to add any legitimate receivers. Quintin Johnson is quite possibly one of the worst wide receivers in the entire league, and he’s their second option. I actually like Justin Herbert, but he’s so flustered with the situation that he’s starting to make poor decisions. On the other side, the defense has been horrific - this is the more surprising part of this team. The defense was significantly improved last year. On the other side, the Bills have looked like the best team in the league through two weeks. While I normally don’t love going with a 2-0 team against a desperate 0-2 team, there’s just too many factors pointing Buffalo’s direction. They’re playing at home in their new stadium. They have the Josh Allen Superman factor (where the team can play awful and he can just win them the game on his own). And mainly, I just don’t see a scenario in which this version of the Chargers defense consistently stops the Bills offense. So I’m going Bills leg one.
Leg 2, we’re going with the 49ers, my pick to win the Super Bowl this season. I try to avoid divisional games where I look to the favorite, because weird things happen when there’s that much familiarity. But this Cardinals defense just has no way to stop this 49ers offense the way they’re playing. The defense is a bit suspect, but the Niners are at home, playing against a bottom 10 offense in the NFL, with a bottom 10 QB. Maybe it’s square to go Niners -2.5 in this leg, but we’re doing it.
Official Pick (2 Team 6 Point Teaser): Bills -1 + 49ers -2.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 3%
3) Teaser: Browns +8.5 vs. Panthers | Broncos +8.5 vs. Rams
One final teaser here. I really like the Browns in this spot, as DeShaun “Magic Towel Man” Watson is somehow actually playing pretty good football as of late. I wanted to take them +3, but that number is gone, and we sit at 2.5, so we’re going to go to a teaser leg again. I just don’t see the Panthers winning this game by 2 scores.
The Broncos is similar. The Broncos rarely lose outright at home, so looking for a final teaser leg to pair with the Browns, the Broncos in primetime against an overvalued Rams team looks pretty good. I just do not see this Rams offense WITHOUT PUKA moving the ball all night against this Broncos defense. They still have some weapons on offense, but with the exception of Riley Moss (HORRIBLE), the Broncos defense has no holes. And after getting torched week 1, the locked back in and showed who they were last week. I’ll take the Broncos as the second leg, catching over a TD. Again, we’re going through the keys of 3 & 7 this week on all of our plays one way or the other.
Official Pick: Bills -1 + 49ers -2.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 3%
3) Cowboys vs. Ravens Over 53
I’m just going to keep betting over in the Cowboys games until one loses. Last year the Cowboys were 13-4 to the over. They are now 2-0 to the over heading into this week. That’s 15 of their last 19 games that have gone over. We should be seeing totals in the 60s for this team. You know why? Because despite the Boys defense being historically bad last season, they’ve somehow got worse. New DC Christian Parker is an absolute JOKE. That was a miss, just like Shottenheimer was. I think the Ravens will do whatever they want, whenever they want. If I were betting a bunch of props I’d bet Derrick Henry over, every wide receiver starting, take the over. Mark Andrews? Go over. Seriously, Dallas can’t stop a runny nose. That said, the offense has been phenomenal through two weeks once again. Pickens and CD Lamb combined make it nearly impossible to cover this team. If you double those guys, Jake Ferguson and Turpin are good enough to beat your LBs and bad secondary guys. If you go too many DBs, they hand it off to Javonte Williams who has been really good since coming to Dallas. It’s not as though Dallas scores on every possession. But they rarely go three-and-out, and they consistently threaten in scoring position. I also love that they have Brandon Aubrey who can hit from anything inside 70. Also, I truly believe this - I listed to a lot of guys shit on Shotty for punting against the Giants on a 4th and inches on their own 35 in the Giants game. If you see a 4th and 1 or less past the 40 yard line, Dallas will go for it - mark my words. And that works in favor of an over. You don’t want punts inside the 40s. Overall, this game screams shootout. And then you have the fact that over 70% of games that have been played on soccer fields have gone over. Why? Because the footing is poor, and that makes it really hard to react and plant when the defense doesn’t know where they are going and the offense does. I see a complete gun fight, shootout here. Take the over.
Official Pick: Bills -1 + 49ers -2.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 3%
Additional Play: I bet one other thing today, and it was a 3 team moneyline underdog parlay. Keep in mind this was a small play. But I’d like to release all my plays as much as I can. So here you go. The moneyline dog parlay: Steelers +155, Browns +110, Broncos +115 (pays 10.5 to 1)
