NFL Week 4 Best Bets (10/4/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 4, 2026 | 8:47 A.M. CST
NFL Sunday Best Bets
2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Jaguars +8.5 | Cowboys +9
I think we have two live dogs here. Dallas is catching three at Houston. Houston’s defense has taken a significant step back this year. I don’t see them as a team that can consistently stop this prolific Dallas offense. I actually think Dallas will win this game, but we’ve seen some sharp money come in on the Texans after the news that Nico Collins is likely back this week. He does change that offense a lot, and Dallas’ defense has been far from good. But getting this to more than a TD gives us a good buffer zone. On the other hand, I think Jacksonville is a live dog too. The Jags could very easily be 3-0. And while I do like Joe Burrow, I don’t think this is going to be a blowout either way. I see this being right on the number, and we’re going through the 3 and the 7 here.
2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Bills -1 | Seahawks -1
I went back and forth on taking the Bills here. I don’t really like taking divisional favorites in any capacity. The Patriots are very familiar with the Bills, and this is basically a must win for them. That said, I just can’t see how the Patriots turn it around in just one week. They have looked horrific through 3 weeks, and Drake Maye couldn’t have had a worse start to the season. I think Buffalo finds a way to win a close game. Seattle, I love in this spot. They’re coming off a loss, heading back home. Plus, Darnold got his feet wet last week, and now has a game under his belt after coming back from the hip injury. The Chargers have been abysmal so far this season. And while I do love 0-3 teams who are better than their record, the Chargers don’t fit that mold. Unfortunately Jim Harbaugh made a catastrophic mistake hiring Mike McDaniels to be the OC, and the organization refused to go out and get WRs. This Chargers team just does not have enough on offense to put up points on one of the league’s best defenses.
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans Over 48.5
I’m not even going to explain this one. I’m going to take the over in every Dallas Cowboys game until one goes under. So far on the season I’ve done it every week and we’re 3-0. If this Texans team didn’t have Nico Collins, I may consider laying off this one. But with Collins back, the Texans will have no trouble moving it on Dallas. And Dak and company will do what they always do: put up points. Take the over.
Summary:
1) Jags +8.5 | Cowboys +9 (Teaser): 3% Play
2) Bills -1 | Seahawks -1 (Teaser): 3% Play
3) Cowboys @ Texans Over 48.5: 3% Play
