College Hoops Best Bet (2/21/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 21, 2025 | 4:30 P.M. CST
Overall Record: 46-21
Best Bet: Villanova +1.5 vs. Marquette
Look, I’m no Kyle Neptune fan. In fact, I believe Villanova made a massive mistake hiring this guy. He essentially came over with one year of experience as a head coach, and he had a losing record that year; and, he came in to take over a program that had been used to getting to Final Fours and winning National Titles under legendary coach Jay Wright. That said, backing Nova at home in conference play in a spot like this has been a very profitable endeavor for me over the past two seasons. This year we already cashed two tickets on this Nova team getting wins over ranked opponents at home. I believe we’re going to get a third one here.
Nova has actually been playing much better basketball lately, especially at home. They currently sit 15-12, 8-8 in the Big East, but heading into a road game against Providence last week they had just beaten #9 St. John’s, and they were on a 3-game win streak. That win over St. John’s was massive for their tournament hopes (at the time they had reached 15-10 overall, 8-6 in Big East). However, they then had to go on the road against an inferior Providence team who was looking to play spoiler, and that’s exactly what they did. It was a clear let down spot for Nova, and they definitely gave a let down worthy performance. But that’s exactly why I have a good feel for this Nova team. The spots where you think they will step up and beat a good team in a big spot at home, they almost always do. Similarly, when they’re coming off a big win, they often provide you with a big let down. They are a very predictable (almost cliché) team under Neptune, and that makes sense, considering he’s not a great coach. They followed up that loss with what was a really great performance ON THE ROAD at UCONN the following outing. They really outplayed the Huskies for 35 minutes. But, leading by double digits with just 7 minutes to play they absolutely collapsed. They not only lost the game, but nearly didn’t cover 7.5 (59-66 loss).
Regardless, I still liked what I saw from the Wildcats in the first 35 minutes against UCONN. With that in mind, they’ve played really good basketball for 4 of their last 5 games. And the two losses both came on the road. While Nova hasn’t been ELITE on the road, all of their losses have been tight games. And they absolutely feed off that home crowd, especially offensively. This is a team who is an EXCELLENT three-point shooting team and free throw shooting team, and they are even better when playing at home. Marquette, on the other hand, has been less than stellar as of late, and more importantly they’ve been less than stellar on the road. They lost their last two road games against St. John’s and Creighton. Now they did win their 4 previous road games prior to those two losses, however those wins came against Providence, Seton Hall, Butler, & Depaul (the 4 worst teams in the Big East). A couple of those games were very tight as well; they beat Butler by single digits & Depaul by just 2. In fact, their only road conference win over a team with a conference record above .500 came against Xavier (who is just 9-7 in Big East play) and it came by just 2 points. So I think this is a really good spot for Nova. They are back home, where they have played well lately, against a team who has STRUGGLED on the road lately (especially against better competition). Additionally, this is absolutely Nova’s season. While I don’t think they will get in the NCAA Tournament regardless of the outcome tonight, they know that a win here would put them back in the conversation. Falling back to 15-13 with just three games left would be a death sentence, especially considering they will likely have zero Quad 1 opportunities left; Georgetown is the highest NET Ranked team left that they have on the road, and they are currently 83rd in the NET (teams must be top 75 if playing them on the road for it to be a Q1 game). The rest of the games they play will be sub-quad 1 games. Thus, this is the last chance to add a signature win to their resumé before the conference tournament. And, as I said prior, while I think they’re way outside looking in, a win here plus running the table in 3 very winnable games puts them 19-13, 12-8 in the Big East, with a shot to win a couple Big East Tourney games. That MAY give them a shot. Overall, point being that this is a massive game for Nova (just like the St. John’s game was last week, when they stepped up and pulled the outright upset).
Lastly, matchup wise, I do like Nova in this specific game regardless of location. That is mainly because Marquette is not a good shooting team. They are a better defensive team than offensive team. And, while Nova doesn’t play at a crazy pace by any means, they are extremely efficient in the half court (specifically at home). If Nova has a hot game from beyond the arc, I just don’t know that Marquette can keep up offensively. Now, that said, Kyle Neptune led squads are always liable to blow late leads. We saw them blow a big lead late at UCONN last week and lose outright. We saw them blow an 11-point lead over St. John’s last week as well, although they were able to find a way to win this one. That said, UCONN has more offensive firepower than Marquette. And, St. John’s has shown a propensity to come from behind late in games (just ask UCONN). That said, I believe at home against this team, I don’t fear Nova blowing a big lead if they do get ahead late on THIS Marquette team.
Overall, I just think Nova has a clear edge here in every facet: the spot, the motivation, how the teams have looked lately, and style of play. Like I said early in the breakdown, I really like taking Nova in these spots: facing a ranked team at home as a short dog. I think we get one of Nova’s best efforts tonight. That doesn’t necessarily mean they will shoot the ball great. If they DO, though, I believe Nova can win this game going away. If they don’t, I still think they have a decent shot to win the game outright. So let’s back Villanova here. Take the 1.5 to be safe, but I think they will win the game outright.
Official Pick: Villanova +1.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
