WNBA Best Bet (9/13/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 13, 2024 | 4:02 P.M. CST
Game Preview: Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces
Tonight the Indiana Fever take on the Las Vegas Aces in Indiana with big playoff implications on the line. The Aces are just one game ahead of the Seattle Storm for that 4 seed in the WNBA playoffs. It’s very unlikely that the Aces will catch the Connecticut for the 3 seed, as they are 3 full games behind them in the standings, with just 4 games to play. However, there is a legitimate way the Aces could fall to that 5 seed, which would mean losing home court advantage in the first round against the Seattle Storm. The Aces play at the Storm Tuesday and the Aces lead the season series 2-1. So a loss here to Indiana and all of the sudden we’re getting into 2nd and 3rd tiebreakers to determine who gets the 4 seed. On the other side the Indiana Fever currently sit in the 6 seed, just one game in the loss column ahead of the 7-seed Phoenix Mercury. That said., Indiana did sweep the season series against Phoenix, meaning a tie would go to the Fever for that 6 seed. The Mercury face off against the Seattle storm tonight, ironically, and the Storm are a relatively short favorite (5 points). A loss from the Mercury and a Fever win tonight would all but seal the 6 seed for Indiana, which could mean a lot if the Lynx clinch that 2 spot.
Best Bet:
Look the Aces have more than had the Fever’s number. In fact, the Fever have yet to beat the Aces during their short existence (0-14). They are 0-3 this season, with losses by 19, 19, and 11. So why would we be looking to back the Fever tonight? Well for one, this current version of the Fever is a completely different team than the one we saw get their butts kicked by nearly 20 points the first two times these teams faced off. If you watched those games early in the year, the Fever had absolutely zero shot. In fact, one game they were a +900 dog against the Aces. That was worlds different than the game we saw two nights ago in Indiana. The Fever were more than in the game until the final few minutes, despite Caitlin Clark having one of her worst performances of the season. Vegas obviously agrees with me, as we have the Fever installed at +185 on the moneyline and trending DOWN; a stark contrast to the number we saw two months ago in Las Vegas. The Fever are more than a live dog here
In their game the other night, Caitlin Clark went 6/22, and was just 1/10 from beyond the arc, while having way too many turnovers. Additionally, Fever starting Center Aliyah Boston, was in foul trouble the entire night. Although I’m not a believer that Boston is all that great, she is better than what she showed Wednesday night, going just 3/10 from the floor and scoring just 6 points in 28 minutes, while also fouling out of the game late. Kelsey Mitchell, the elite scorer for the Fever, was okay but shot below 50% from the field, and she’s been on an absolute heater prior to that game. Overall, the Fever played a terrible game on both ends of the floor. They shot just 39% from the field and 27% from beyond the arc; AND, shot below 70% from the FT line (which is highly abnormal). Meanwhile, the Aces had one of their better shooting nights of the year, going 45% from the 3 point line. Although the Aces do have some solid shooters on their roster, almost every player shot above their season average from beyond the arc. Even Kiah Stokes who was a 17% shooter coming in went 1/1 from three. Yet, with as good of a night shooting as LV had, and as bad as the Fever looked, this was a 5 point game late in the 4th. And it took a number of bad mistakes from the Fever to hand LV the game. I think the Fever bounce back tonight in a big way, and find a way to finally beat the Aces.
Lastly the number. I make this about a 47% win probability for the Fever tonight. We’re catching +185, which is implied odds of just above 35% (35.1%). That means we have roughly an 11.9% edge on this game. Which basically means this is an easy bet. We’re 100% taking this. I could even make an argument that with the spot the Fever could be favored in this one. So we will happily take +185 here for a 2 star play
Official Pick: Indiana Fever +185
Play Rating: 2 Star
