CFB Best Bets 11/11/23

Four Big Best Bets (2 Unit Plays)

1) Michigan -4 @ Penn State

2) Central Florida +3 vs. Oki State

3) Pittsburgh -3 @ Syracuse

4) San Jose State PK vs. Fresno State

Side Plays (1 Unit Plays)

1) Miami (FL) 1H +8 @ Florida State

2) Utah +9.5 @ Washington

3) Northwestern +9 @ Wisconsin

4) West Virginia +13.5 @ OU

ML Dog Parlay:

Utah +280 to beat Washington | WVU +340 to beat OU (13.8 to 1)

College Football Best Bets Week 10 (11/4/2023)

I cannot believe we are in WEEK TEN of college football already. Every year it seems we wait around for football to start, and then it finally does; and then we BLINK, and it’s over. We’ve only got a few more weeks remaining of the regular season and it’s starting to really heat up. The first CFB playoff rankings came out last week, and shockingly Ohio State was ranked as the top team in the country. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Buckeyes won’t even be in the playoff, but we’ll let Ryan Day have his moment for the next few weeks. This week we have some monster matchups with CFB Playoff implications. Let’s take a look a the betting slate for this week

BEST BETS

Best Bet of the Week No. 1: ARKANSAS +6.5 @ Florida (2 Units)

Now look, this line has moved a TON since I bet it, but I’m still going to give it out, because it hasn’t crossed through either of the ultra key numbers in CFB. I have 6.5 and it’s still sitting at 3.5 right now. Nonetheless, a full 3 point move is a lot, so play this one with caution if you are looking to back the Hogs.

This is just purely a spot play. Florida basically emptied the tank last week taking on Georgia, trying to stay in contention for the SEC East. Unfortunately they got stomped by the Bulldogs, and it really wouldn’t have mattered much if Florida played it’s best game of the season anyways, as they were just at a huge disadvantage. They failed to cover as 14.5 point dogs, and now they have to get back up on the horse and take on an Arkansas team that, well, has looked pretty awful. There’s no chance that anyone in that Florida locker room is getting “up” to play two-win Arkansas.

On the other side we’ve got the Hogs of Arkansas, who come in with just two wins all season. They are coming off their 6th straight loss, and a team that can’t seem to get things on track. To me though, Arkansas hit the bottom of the barrel two weeks ago when they lost to Mississippi State at home, despite only giving up 7 points. The offense only put up 3 total points the entire game, and the Hogs lost the game outright as 6 point favorites. However, when you look at the Hogs schedule, they have been very competitve in every game they’ve played this year. The BYU loss they led most of the way before giving it away late. Against LSU they led nearly the entire game, and damn near pulled the outright upset as 17 point dogs. A couple of bad TO’s derailed Arkansas against Texas A&M in a game that the Hogs led in the second half as well. Follow that up with a 7 point loss at Ole Miss (and a cover), before traveling to Tuscaloosa, where they had the ball with a chance to drive and BEAT ALABAMA ON THE ROAD!! After emptying the tank in Tuscaloosa for a game that might’ve saved their season, they then had to bounce back against a much worse Mississippi State team.

We’re getting them here off a bye, which in this case is a good thing, because they needed that time to get healthy and to make some changes on the offensive side of the ball schematically. I also LOVE that they get Florida off the Georgia game. And I love the fact that they’ve competed with, and had chances to beat teams much better than this Florida team (and that includes Ole Miss and Bama on the road). Lastly, I like that even though they have lost 6 games, they are still playing to make a bowl, and they MUST win this one to be Bowl Eligble. The rest of their schedule is managable up until the final game of the season at Mizzou. If they can get through this game, they still have a legit chance to get into a bowl. We’re going to get Arkansas’ best shot here - back the Hogs. LOVED Them at 6.5. Liked them a lot at +4 or better. At +3.5 I still like them, just not as much. I played this for TWO UNITS. If you get 3.5 play it for 1. If you can find a spot with +4 play it for 2 units.

PICK: Arkansas +6.5 (Play to +4 at 2 units, Play at +3.5, +3 at 1 Unit)

Best Bet No. 2: Iowa State -2.5 vs. Kansas (2 Units)

Again, this is just a spot play. We look at Kansas last week pulling off the biggest upset in their school’s history, defeating undefeated, #6 OU at home. It took an inspired effort by the Jayhawks, and it came down to the final play. If you didn’t watch the game, I can promise you that KU gave the Sooners their absolute best shot. Now you have to get up to go to Aimes Iowa at 6 P.M. on a Saturday night? Good luck.

Aimes is not only an extremely tough place to play, but the Cyclones are actually pretty good this year. Despite a poor start (as always), and a baffling loss to Ohio University, the Cyclones have now won 3 straight, and 4 of their last 5. They are playing much better football on both sides of the ball and they finally found a competent QB to replace Brock Purdy from a couple years ago.

Every box score you look at for ISU is accurate, meaning they did not get outgained or beaten in the box score and find a way to win based on the “luck factor” in the past 3 games. They’ve just legitimately been playing good football. Kansas is for sure playing well, but they’ve been not great on the road, and the last time the left Lawerence, their defense gave up damn near 40 points to Oki State and lost the game outright. Jason Bean is playing better, but he’s still not the most accurate QB and a clear step down from Jalon Daniels. Give me the Cyclones laying less than a FG here, while the public will be all over the Jayhawks

PICK: Iowa State -2.5 (Play at 2 Units)

Pick No. 3: Boise State +3 @ Fresno State (2 Units)

Fresno state comes in at 7-1 while Boise State comes in 4-4. But those scores are very deceiving. The Broncos have given multiple games away this season, including one a few weeks ago when they had a 99.9% chance to win with 4 minutes to go in the game, leading by 20. They blew that lead and lost the game. They also gave one away at Memphis in week 5, as they were going into score a Touchdown, already up 3. Instead of going for it on fourth and 1 from the Memphis 7 yard line, with a RB who has failed to be stopped in a 4th and 1 or shorter all year, they opted to kick a FG. The FG was blocked and returned for a TD for Memphis, and instead of going up 10, they went down 4. They went on to lose the game by 3. If those two games go the way of the Broncos they are 6-2.

On the other side Fresno State is 7-1, however those numbers lie significantly. They were outgained in total yards & yards per play in both of their two previous contests. They also had a lower success rate in both games, and yet they pulled off both wins, largely due to some fortunate breaks (and UNLV turning the ball over 4 times). When you look at the post-game win expectency for Fresno State in their previous two wins, they were Less than 15% and less than 10%. The odds of them winning both of those games was less than 2%, and yet they DID win both. If those games both go the way they should’ve, Fresno State is 5-3.

The reason I mention these games, is if Fresno State comes into this one at 5-3, off 2 straight losses, and Boise State comes into this game at 6-2, off 6 consecutive wins, what is this line? I can promise you it’s not 3 (or even 2.5 in some spots). I think it’s closer to 6 or 7. So to me, the reality is that these teams are much more equal than their records indicate. Boise State is a much better football team than their record indicates, and they’ve proven they can go on the road and really compete. Both games against Memphis and CSU, although they lost, they were in great position to win both. I don’t see the homefield of Fresno being much a factor here, and I think Boise not only stays within in the number but I think they win outright. Give me the Broncos catching 3

PICK: Boise State +3 @ Fresno State

Three More Official Plays:

Alabama -3 vs. LSU: Alabama at home, in a revenge spot here. Three just seems short to me. LSU is INCREDIBLE offensively. But they really haven’t played any great defenses. The one pretty good defense they faced was Florida State, and LSU was pretty much shut down in the second half of that game. Bama’s got the better defense by far. LSU’s defense has a flurry of injuries coming into this one, and as good as LSU’s offense has been, their defense has damn near been just that bad. I’m not sure how LSU finds stops in this one. Alabama should easily touch 35 in this one. They’ll find a way to get just enough stops at home to pull it out. Give me the Tide laying a short number at home.

Michigan State +3 vs. Nebraska: Michigan State is FUCKING AWFUL, and Nebraska is playing much better football. So why is the line only Nebraska -3 when MSU has been nothing short of putrid this season? Because Nebraska is still bad, and their passing offense is very, very average. MSU is good enough to stop the run against this team. But honestly, CFB is just weird, and this just feels like a spot that MSU finally gets a win. Nebraska is due for a loss, while MSU is due for a win. Give me the Spartans +3 but I think they win the game outright.

Texas State -120 vs. Ga Southern: I liked this one early in the week and I got it at +2, but I still like it ML now as a short favorite. This line moved 4 full points (albeit through zero). Texas State gets Ga Southern in a great spot as they are coming off playing their rivals, and getting bowl eligible. Texas State is one of 3 FBS teams to never play in a bowl game. This game would be their sixth win and get them Bowl Eligible. I like the Bobcats to get it done here at home. Give me the Bobcats ML in a SAN MARCOS SPECIAL!!

• All plays 2U’s

MONEYLINE PARLAY OF THE WEEK (2 Team ML Dog Parlay)

We’re going to parlay two of the teams we already bet here and take:

• Michigan State Spartans +135

• Boise State Broncos: +125

• Pays 4.5 to 1

Opinions: DID NOT BET ANY OF THESE - these are just my leans

• Old Dominion PK

• Alabama/LSU Over 61.5

• Texas -3 (if it gets that low)

• Illinois +2

• UCLA -2.5

• GT +2

• UGA/Mizzou OVER 55.5

• Georgia State/JMU UNDER 53.5

• ND -3

• Ole Miss -3

NFL Best Bets 10/29/23

Getting to post this a bit later than I wanted to so I’m going to skip the long breakdown and post the official picks so they are out before kickoff.

Our BEST BET OF THE WEEK: Denver Broncos +7 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

They say that it’s hard to beat a team 2 times in one season. They say it’s really hard to beat a team 3 times in a ROW. How about 17 times in a row? That’s what KC is trying to do today against the Broncos. The problem is, I think the Broncos are actually an improving team, and I think KC is due for a loss. KC’s offense hasn’t been great as of late, and the Denver defense is trending up as they’ve gotten healthier. This makes no sense if I’m being honest, and that’s exactly why I LOVE it. Give me the Broncos +7 for my best bet of the week, and if your as bold as I am, sprinkle a little on the Moneyline (see ML Dog parlay below)

TEASER OF THE WEEK: Lions -2 to Chargers -2.5

We’re going to tease both the Lions and Chargers through the key numbers of 3 and 7

Both teams are home favorites, and I like both teams to win here relatively easily. Chargers take care of business by 14. Lions bounce back from the ugly game last week and win by 10. Easy winner on this one.

Extra Opinions:

Washington Commanders +7 vs. Eagles: Commanders always play the Eagles close - statistically this doesn’t make sense. I make the game 8.5, but bad spot for the Eagles, and the Commanders have a shot to win this one outright, so I’ll take the points.

Titans +2.5 vs. Falcons: Will Levis can’t be a step down from Tannehil so this is really a positive. At home the Titans are a different team. Desmond Ridder is AWFUL on the road Gimme the points, there’s a reason this didn’t get to 3 even with tons of public money on the favorite.

Packers +1.5 vs. Vikings: Kirk Cousins on the road in 30 degree temperatures? Give me the Packers. And if the Packers can’t win here, then I can promise you that I will never bet on the Packers again a day in my life. Jordan Love is an absolute bum, but I think he does just enough to get us the win here.

Chiefs @ Broncos Under 45.5: Denver’s defense is trending up, and KC’s defense is already really good. This is too many points in a game that’s going to be freezing cold up in Denver.

Bengals +4 @ 49ers: Burrow looks like he’s back, plus they’re off a bye. Purdy hasn’t looked the same since his first loss, and he’s trending the opposite way you’d like if you were a SF fan. Gimme the Bengals all day here.

ML Dog Parlay of the Week in the NFL:

Well I used to do these as 3-teamers, and I tended to hit 2, and lose on the last one a lot of the time, and it was always a will I won’t I hedge. Instead I’m dialing it back to 2-team ML Dogs. I hit those at an insanely high rate (54%) and they pay roughly 4-10 to 1 depending on the size of the dogs. I like one today a lot. I’m playing both on the side with the points

Give me the Broncos ML & Bengals ML for 10 Bucks = It pays 9 to 1 here and I think both teams are VERY live dogs. We’re going to start a streak with these ML Dog parlays as we hit our college one last night (Thanks to the schools in ARIZONA!!)

Good luck with all your wagers this Sunday!!

CFB Best Bets 10/28/23

I’ve had some really bad luck the past few weeks on my Best Bets, with lots of bad beats, but we STILL remain positive. Always got to bounce back, and long run/large sample size is what it’s all about

Best Bet of the Week:

South Carolina +17 @ Texas A&M

Let’s be real here, A&M shouldn’t be laying 17 points against anyone. I know South Carolina has been smacked two of their last 3 games, but they rarely get beaten like that two games in a row. The last time South Carolina was beaten by 20+, they came out and really dominated most of the game against a decent Florida team. South Carolina is a weird team, and they often play up to their competition in spots like this. I think they compete in this game for most of the way. Could they pull the outright upset? Maybe - I think there’s probably too large of a talent gap overall. But let’s fade A&M with a backup QB in this spot - it’s just too many points (I make this game 11.5). Give me the Game Cocks +17

Top Rated Plays (4)

Spot Play No. 1: Indiana +30.5 @ Penn State

This is PURELY a spot play. Indiana is HORRIFIC. They have two wins all year, and one is against an FCS team, while the other is a 2 point win against Akron. So it’s not like we’re taking this team expecting them to have ANY shot to win this game. But Indiana’s HC Tom Allen will have his bunch ready to play. And most of all, Penn State is coming off the biggest game of their season last week, where they were beat by Ohio State. It’s really hard to now get up for a home game against a BAD Indiana Team. In a regular spot I make this game 29, which isn’t much value. But with Alar’s lack of big play ability, and the spot, I think anything over 28 points is just too many. IU will hang around early and likely lose by 17-24. Give me the Hoosiers catching more than 4 TDs.

Market Play No. 1: Western Michigan -3 vs. Eastern Michigan

This is a play based SOLELY on the Market. The Market is telling us that WMU is by far the side here. Eastern Michigan opened as a 1.5 point FAVORITE. Within 2 days, that number swung a full 4.5 points with WMU now sitting at -3. There have been no major injuries so this line movement is fully based on some really sharp groups.

I do understand that -3 is a key number, but to me, if the move is this real, to move it all the way to 3, and there’s been ZERO buy back on EMU, I think we’re good laying the 3. It’s going to be a push at absolute worst. I think WMU blows them out. Give me WMU -3

Buy Low/Sell High: Michigan State +7 @ Minnesota

Look, there’s nothing pretty, or even decent looking about Michigan State. This season has been an absolute dumpster fire for a program that is used to competing for Big 10 Titles over the past two decades. Not only did their coach get fired (which is probably a good thing for the success of the program in the long run). But after starting 2-0, they’ve been a dismal 1-4 since, including 2 shutout losses to Washington and last week to Michigan. This is a complete buy low spot for MSU. Last week they took on their rival Michigan, and they were just COMPLETELY outclassed by a far superior football team. It also came on the heels of a hearbreaking loss to Rutgers. That was a game in which Michigan State led by 18 WITH THE BALL in the fourth quarter, and went on to lose the game. So last week, losing in that manor, well that’s about what I expected. So we’re now getting MSU at an absolutely rock bottom price here.

Minnesota on the other hand comes into this game off an emotional win, that most people saw transpire. It was a controversial call by the officials that allowed Minnesota to hold on there, after Iowa returned a punt for a TD with under 2 minutes to play. Minnesota won the game without scoring a touchdown, a feat that could only be performed against the Iowa Hawkeyes and Brian Ferentz.

So we have Minnesota off a HUGE win. We have MSU off a BEAT DOWN. This is a great buy low, sell high spot. This line 2 weeks ago is probably 4? To me, these teams are the same they were two weeks ago, Michigan State might be even slightly better. There’s no way in the world you could convince me to lay a touchdown with Minnesota. i like the value here with the dog once again. Give me the Spartans +7

Matchup/Trajectory Play: Arizona +3 vs. Oregon State: Arizona has been playing really good football as of late. Oregon State is a different team away from home. I like Arizona to not only win, but pull the outright upset. Their offense has played fantastic as of late. They’ve also improved significantly defensively. The key to this game will be the Arizona Offensive Line - they might be the best one in the Pac 12. Give me Arizona +3

Opinions:

BYU +21 @ Texas: Don’t love this one, but anything over 3 TDs just seems like too much, no matter who’s playing QB.

Kansas +8.5 vs. OU: I think Kansas has a real shot to win this game. But both teams are so bad defensively and so explosive offensively, that it’s hard to make this an official play. Too many ways that KU could hang in there for 3 full quarters and still not cover. Still like the Jayhawks here as an opinion, just not as an official play (They ALMOST made my list)

Arizona State +6 vs. Washington State: ASU might be the best 1-6 team I’ve ever seen. They play super hard. They are in most of the games they play. They had the undefeated Washington Huskies beat last week, and if it weren’t for a pick six, they probably pull the upset as 28+ point dogs. Give me ASU here, as they get the win OUTRIGHT against a team on the downslide in Wazzu and the fighting Mike Leaches.

ML DOG PARLAY: I’m weirdly good at these

Give me the Arizona schools tonight: Both later games, both live dogs. Weird things happen in the Pac 12 after dark

Arizona ML + Arizona State ML = It should pay around 4 to 1? I got it for $25 to win about $98

Let’s get a nice win here!!

NFL Best Bet & Picks For Sunday (10/14/23)

One BEST BET for this NFL Sunday: Had a rough one last week, but we always bounce back.

Game: New England Patriots @ Las Vegas Raiders

Weather: Dome (Indoor)

Summary:

This is an UGLY game, but those are often the games you can find value in the NFL. The New England Patriots have been AWFUL the past couple weeks, and that’s putting it nicely. They we’re blanked last week, 31-0 against the New Orleans Saints. The week before, they got smacked, 38-3 against the Cowboys. It was the two worst losses in the storied history of Bill Belicek as an NFL Head Coach. So we will start by saying that this is a great buy low spot on the Patriots. It should tell you what Las Vegas thinks of the Las Vegas Raiders, considering New England was outscored 69-3 the last two weeks and this is a road game for the Patriots, and yet they are still just a 3 point road dog.

Coaching:

Let’s start with the coaching matchup. No matter the outcome the past two weeks, the Patriots still have the best coach in NFL history on their sideline. Even if you believe he’s lost a bit of his step, I believe he’s still a solid NFL coach. I think back to the Pats/Dolphins game this season, when he dialed up a Bill-special, sneaking a guy out by the sideline, and running him in late to sprint in and block a field goal. It was something that nobody had ever seen before, and it was a heck of a coaching move that actually could’ve influenced the outcome of the game.

On the other side, we have Josh McDaniels. In my opinion, not only is Josh McDaniels the worst NFL head coach in the entire NFL today, but he’s the second worst coach in the history of the NFL (1st being Nathaniel Hackett). McDaniels has made bad coaching decision after bad coaching decision, and he’s really hurt his team that is already lacking talent. Against the Steelers week 3, McDaniels’ Raiders had the ball trailing by 8 with under 4 minutes to play. On a fourth and 5 he decided to opt for a long field goal. After making the kick, a penalty on the Steelers gave the Raiders a first down. The Raiders then got down to the Pittsburgh 9 yard line, and on fourth and 4, he decided to once again kick a field goal, down by 8, this time with under 3 minutes to go. They would go onto lose that game. Against the Chargers, he decided not to challenge a clear TD that DeVante Adams scored, and instead went for a quick QB sneak on 3rd and goal that got stuffed. An automatic touchdown turned into a 4th and goal on the 2. Then last week, up 4 points late in the game, McDaniels did it again. It was fourth and one, and one yard would end the game. Instead, McDaniels settled for a 52 yard field goal from a kicker that had already missed earlier in the night. The kick was missed, and the Packers were given a shot to go win the game. He’s made bad decision after bad decision, and it’s just clear as day that he is an incompetent head coach. So whether or not this game wins, I know that going in, I’m getting 3 points with two teams of equal talent, and I’m getting the far superior coach (both in terms of gameplanning, as well as in game management)

Additionally, you look at what Las Vegas wants to do: Get the ball to Devante Adams. Last week you had a Packers team pretty much take Adams out of the game for almost a full 60 minutes. That was a packers team that got LIT UP the previous week by Jared Goff and the Lions. They couldn’t cover ANYONE and yet that same Packers defense locked down the best WR in the game. Now you get Bill Belicek, who is NOTORIOUS for taking away the opponents number one option. Bill is going to have a good gameplan for taking away Adams. And Gorroppolo will be forced to make plays, finding other receivers. Taking away Adams really gave the Raiders issues offensively last week.

Lastly, the Raiders have been abismal running the ball this season. Josh Jacobs, who led the NFL in rushing yards last year, struggled to get going all night. He’s been incredibly inefficient all season, averaging less than 3 yards per carry. I believe the Patriots already will have a good defensive plan here, but add to the fact that the Raiders are going to be one-dimensional, and predictable offensively? It’s a no brainer that this is advantage Pats. It doesn’t mean they for sure win the game, but again, it’s another edge for the Pats in this game.

Trend:

I don’t like betting on trends alone, but I do like when they strongly support a side I already like, and this one is one that has been profitable over the years. Teams who score 7 points or less back to back weeks, are 68% against the spread over the past 25 years the following week. I also think that trend is more likely to be accurate considering it’s based on performance. As I said before, NFL teams are never as good as they look at their peak, and they are never as bad as they look at their worst. And the Pats have looked their worst the past two weeks.

Matchup:

The Patriots do get some key guys back from injury in the secondary and that will help them defensively. They also had two offensive linemen out last week that are likely to be able to go on Sunday.

The key matchup is going to be Mac Jones against the Raiders pass rush. If Max Crosby can get to Mac Jones, then yes it could go the Raiders way. But I refuse to believe that Bill won’t scheme for that. I think he’s going to have some good protection packages, along with the fact that they get their starting tackle opposite Crosby back. I don’t think Max is going to live in the backfield like he did on Monday night against the Raiders.

The Raiders defense has also been really average. They are in the bottom 10 in the league in defensive efficiency, and this is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Pats. They’ve played a brutal schedule (2nd toughest schedule in the league compared to the Raiders who are middle of the back in S.O.S.)

Lastly the QB matchup. Yes Mac Jones has been bad the last two weeks, and yes he does not look good. But let’s remember that he looked pretty solid the first 3 weeks against some pretty good teams (Eagles, Dolphins, Jets). Additionally, when you look at the comparison, Jimmy G is slightly better overall, but when the 2 are under pressure Mac Jones is significantly better. Jimmy G is the worst QB in the league when he is pressured. Additionally Mac’s big time throw rate is significantly higher than Jimmy G. The key is going to be taking care of the ball. If Mac takes care of the ball, the Pats win this game outright by 7. If he turns it over, we could be in for another ugly one.

PICK:

Again, in an even matchup, I’ll take the points. We’re going to roll with the Pats here, as disgusting as that is to say. But give me New England. The Raiders played a nationally televised game and won last week. The Pats off back to back 30+ point losses. Again, we buy low and sell high, and this is a classic example. The Raiders don’t deserve to lay points against anyone in this league.

OFFICIAL PICK: New England Patriots +3

College Football Best Bet (10/14/23)

One Best Bet For Today in College Football:

Game: Michigan State Spartans +5 @ Rutgers Scarlett Knights

Weather: High Chance of Rain (Going to be Ugly)

Summary:

Michigan State comes into the game 2-3, and it has been a brutal start to the season, on and off the field. After starting with 2-straight wins, the Spartans were walloped at home by Washington 41-7, and it was probably worse than the score shows. However, Washington is the BEST offense in the country, and a legit top-10 team. I don’t think we need to include that datapoint.

The next two games were both losses, but they were a bit deceiving. The Spartans actually hung with Maryland for 3-quarters, trailing by 11 going into the 4th. They actually OUTGAINED the Terrapins in total yards in the game, but 5 turnovers killed the Spartans. When you lose the TO battle 5-1 there’s almost no chance of being in a game late in the fourth. The Spartans then went into Iowa, a really tough place to play, and went toe-to-toe with the Hawkeyes. Although the Hawkeyes are no offensive juggernaut, they are still a 5-1 team playing with a big homefield advantage.

The Spartans are also still dealing with the firing of their head coach, Mel Tucker. Tucker was fired following sexual assault allegations, however it’s not as though the team was playing well under Tucker. He was a below average coach at best.

Matchups:

When you look at the matchups here, they actually favor Michigan State. The two things Michigan State does really well? They run the ball well, and they stop the run. Rutgers on the other hand, is decent offensively rushing, but they’ve struggled to stop the run against good competition. There is a BIG mismatch in the trenches here, as Michigan State’s Offensive Line is much stronger than the Defensive Line of Rutgers.

Michigan State is has not announced their starting QB this week, which is making Rutgers prepare for all 3. This is key, as one of the MSU QBs is a dual threat, one is a straight runner, and the other is a pocket passer. With 3 of the QBs relatively equal in ability (and value to the point spread) this is advantage MSU.

Weather:

When you also incorporate that there is likely to be rain in this game, this favors MSU and their advantage in the trenches even more. Their ability to stop the run and run the ball will play a big factor in the outcome of this game if it starts to get really ugly (which it very well looks like it could).

Spot:

This is a good spot for Michigan State. Not only is the weather helpful in their gameplan, but it should also help with the crowd. It’s homecoming for Rutgers, and if it starts to get really bad weather wise, you can bet that stadium is going to be half empty. Again, advantage Michigan State.

Additionally, Michigan State is off a bye. While being off a bye in college doesn’t mean much in terms of win % against the spread, I think in this spot it does matter. Michigan State needed the additional time to prep. They hired former head coach Mike Dantonio, and he has been a big help patching up the secondary during the bye, according to local reporters.

Pick:

It’s ugly, no doubt. But we’re going to back the Spartans +5 in this spot. It all comes down to taking care of the ball. If Michigan State doesn’t turn the ball over, they not only have a good chance to cover, but they could win outright. I think in rainy conditions the TO battle should be quite even. Rutgers is not good enough to be laying more than 3 points in this spot, so I’ll grab the value.

OFFICIAL PICK: MICHIGAN STATE +5

Additional Opinions (Small plays at best):

Washington -3 vs. Oregon

South Carolina PK vs. Florida

Pittsburgh +8 vs. Louisville

Notre Dame -2.5 vs. USC

Washington State/Arizona OVER 57

NFL BEST BETS WEEK 5 (10/8/23)

Teaser of the Week: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (Texans +8.5 | Cardinals +9)

Houston Texans +8.5 @ Atlanta Falcons: Getting this above both the key numbers of 3 and 7 is just too many points. Even on the road, the Texans have been by far better than the Falcons through the first 4 weeks. Ridder has struggled to move the ball. The Falcons would need a multiple turnover advantage here to get a double digit win

Arizona Cardinals +9 vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Again just too many points here. Can the Bengals win this game? Yes. But Joe Burrow has been awful, Jamaar Chase is fighting with Zack Taylor, and the Bengals look like an absolute dumpster fire. The Cards have been much better than expected despite their record. I think this is too many points., again going through the two most key numbers in football.

Straight Bet of the Week:

Cowboys +4 (-115) @ 49ers

Opinions:

Panthers @ Lions 1H Under 21.5

Rams +4 vs. Eagles

Jets @ Broncos Over 43.5

College Football Picks Week 6 (10/7/23)

Saturday Picks:

It’s been a super busy week with the launch of my sports podcast, so I am posting this late at night on Friday Night. I don’t have too much time to give in depth breakdowns of my picks so I’ll run through my picks, opinions, and a fun parlay at the end.

OFFICIAL PICKS:

I’ve got 3 official picks for this Saturday. I normally don’t play totals as much as I play sides, but there are two totals I really love this weekend.

1) Kentucky @ Georgia UNDER 48.5: This is my favorite play of the week. I bet it super early in the week, so I got it at 48.5, and it currently sits 47 as I’m writing this. If you look at Kentucky’s final scores, you will see that they have yet to score less than 28 points this season. Not ideal for an under right? Well let’s look at their schedule. Before last week, they faced Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, and Vanderbilt (one of the easiest schedules of defenses of any power 5 team through 4 weeks). Then last week, it looked like another offensive explosion from the Wildcats, putting up 33 against a ranked Florida team. However, for one, this Florida team is a different group at home compared to on the road (last week was in Kentucky). Utah has been one of the worst offenses of all P5 teams through 5 weeks, and Florida gave up 24 points to that same offense week 1 on the road.

Secondly, Kentucky has LIVED on the explosive play. When you look at Kentucky’s down to down success rate, they’ve actually really struggled: They are outside the top 70 in both rush & pass success rate, and 98th in rush yards. This means that although they ran for nearly 10 yards/rush last week, the reality is they busted a number of big runs that skewed the numbers. And, that’s exactly what’s happened all season.

To add to the argument for the under, both teams are in the top 15 in pass success rate defense (UK is 13th, Georgia is 3rd) - so neither team should be able to find great success through the air. Georgia isn’t great against the run, but they are BY FAR better than any team UK has played this season. The step up in class for the Wildcats will really hurt their offense. On the other hand Georgia has not blown anyone away this season with their offensive attack, and Kentucky’s defense is solid enough to keep Georgia from having an offensive outburst here.

Lastly, both teams are towards the bottom of the country in seconds per play, meaning they play at a much slower pace than average. UK is 79th in seconds per play, while Georgia is 121st (one of the slowest teams in the country). I think this is going to be a physical, grinded out, slow tempo game, which is the perfect type of game for an under in this spot.

Side Note: This got STEAMED under by multiple groups - get the best number. I would play it under 48 or better. Anything lower than that is probably too much value lost, unless you want to play it smaller

2) TCU -6 @ Iowa State:

I believe oddsmakers are overreacting to the loss last week to West Virginia. I don’t think TCU is all that great, but this is an Iowa State team who has played really poorly offensively through much of the season so far. The weakness of the TCU team is their defense, but I don’t believe Iowa State has enough to exploit the Horned Frogs in this spot. It’s also a HUGE game for the Horned Frogs, who are in danger of dropping their 3rd game already. They still have K-State, OU, and Texas on the schedule, and two of those games are on the road. If they drop this one they are looking at a possible 6-6 season, which would really hurt the recruiting momentum they had following the end of the National Title Run last season.

3) Syracuse @ North Carolina Under 60

This game comes down to a few things. One Syracuse isn’t a great offensive team, and we saw that last week at home against Clemson. Now you have a struggling offense, going on the road after a big emotional game (let down spot). You also look at UNC, who had an offensive outburst last week against Pittsburgh. However, this is a big step up in class for them as Syracuse’s defense ranks top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency. North Carolina does get their top WR back here, but he hasn’t played a game in a month, and it’s hard to think he’s going to come in and make this UNC offense explosive all of the sudden against a solid Syracuse Defense. I think both teams play slow enough and run the ball enough to keep the clock moving, and get under the number of 60. I do think they will get close to the number, but I like this one staying relatively low scoring .

Opinions:

These are not to be played for much, if at all. They are just informed picks that I like that didn’t make the card this week.

1) UAB +3 vs. South Florida

2) Texas A&M +.5 (1st Half) vs. Bama

3) California +8 vs. Oregon State

4) Washington State +3.5 @ UCLA

5) Missouri +6 vs. LSU

6) Eastern Michigan @ Ball State Under 44.5

7) Arizona State +4 vs. Colorado

8) Purdue +2.5 @ Iowa

Moneyline Dog Parlay

This is to be played for fun, or no more than a few bucks. It is a 3-teamer and it pays roughly 11 to 1

1) Purdue +115 over Iowa

2) Washington State +145

3) Boston College +115 @ Army

NFL Play of the Week (10/1/23)

The play of the week in the NFL will be a post in which I give my best bet for the NFL each week. It will always be either a straight bet or a 2-team teaser. This week we will take a 2-team teaser for our first Best Bet of the year. Let’s take a look at the teaser for this week.

Week 3 Best Bet: 2-Team 6-Point Teaser = Philadelphia Eagles -3 | Kansas City Chiefs -2.5

Summary:

The Eagles come into this game undefeated. They are also coming off one of their better offensive performances of the year. The defense has been elite in forcing turnovers, leading the league in that category. Although Jalen Hurts hasn’t played well this season, he still has some dangerous weapons on the outside in Devanta Smith and AJ Brown. Additionally, the Eagles rushing attack has been really good the past few weeks, as the offensive line has looked as dominant as they did a year ago.

Even though the Commanders started 2-0, they beat a bad Arizona team by a narrow margin in game one, followed by a 2 point win against a very bad Denver Broncos team who is looking worse by the week. Week 3 the Commanders came back to reality, losing by 30+ points at home to the Buffalo Bills. I believe that week 3 really exposed the Commanders as a fraud 2-0 team, and the Eagles are the far superior team in this matchup. The Eagles did fall to the Commanders when they played in Phili last season, but I think that is all the more reason to believe the Eagles will not take this game lightly. I think Phili gets the win here easy. They likely cover the real number of 9. I wish we could tease this through the key number of 3, to 2.5, but we will settle for -3.

The second matchup is pretty simple here. You have a Chiefs team who already suffered an upset early in the season (week 1 at home vs. the Lions). Since then, the Chiefs got back Chris Jones on the interior of their D-Line, and they have looked really good defensively since. This might be the best Chiefs defense we’ve seen in the Patrick Mahomes era. The other side features the New York Jets. Yes the Jets got the win in Primetime last time they faced the Bills on Sunday night. But this is clearly a mismatch for the Jets. There is no way anyone is backing the Jets and Zach Wilson against a competent NFL defense. I don’t care where the game is played.

So we will tease the Eagles to -3 and the Chiefs to -2.5, & that’s our best bet of the week in the NFL for week 3.

Notre Dame @ Duke Pick (9/30/23)

Notre Dame @ Duke Pick (9/30/23)

Saturday College Football Matchup 9/30/23: Notre Dame @ Duke

Line: Notre Dame -6 | Over/Under: 52.5

Location: Wallace Wad Stadium, Durham, North Carolina (Capacity: 40,004)

Kickoff Time: 7:30 P.M. Eastern Time

Weather At Kickoff: 71 Degrees | Wind = 5 MPH, Gusts up to 10 MPH

TV Network: ABC

Game Summary:

Notre Dame travels to Durham, North Carolina on Saturday night to take on the surprise team of the college football season so far, the Duke Blue Devils. The Blue Devils are known for being a powerhouse on the hardwood, but they are out to prove that they are more than just a basketball school. Last year the Blue Devils finished with 9 wins for the just the second time since 1940. Meanwhile, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are no stranger to success on the football field in the recent past. The Fighting Irish come into this one off a heartbreaking loss last week, at home against their rival, Ohio State. College game day is in Durham for this one, so let’s take a look and see if this game can live up to the ESPN hype.

Last year the Blue Devils came into the season without much in terms of expectations. Riley Leonard had different plans, as he burst onto the scene as one of the top QBs in the ACC. As a sophomore, Leonard threw for just under 3,000 yard, completing 64% of his passes, while throwing 20 TDs and just 6 picks. Maybe equally as impressive, though, was Leonard’s legs. He ran for nearly 700 yards on 5.6 yards per carry and a whopping 13 TDs on the ground. Leonard was absolutely dynamic last season, and not much as changed in 2023. Now Leonard has not been required to do all that much in the passing game so far this season, largely because Duke has absolutely dominated all four of their opponents. However, he is yet to throw an interception through 4 starts. His legs have been even better than they were last season, already rushing for 238 yards and 4 TDs.

The Irish come into this game coming of an emotional loss at home last week to the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Irish

Irish Mentality After Last Week’s Loss

This is an incredibly tough spot for the Irish. They played a night game last week against one of the more physical teams in the country. Not only was the game against Ohio State a game that mirrored football in the 1980s, but Notre Dame also lost it in heartbreaking fashion. The Irish had about 10 chances to end that game at home in South Bend last week. They had the ball with under 3 minutes to play, and after two easy runs for first downs, they were one first down away from a win. Once again, in step Gerad Parker, who threw up all over himself the final 3 plays he called. After a bad first down run call, Parker decided to call a screen pass. Hartman not only threw an incompletion to stop the clock, but it almost ended up being an interception. Then on third and long, after you have committed to being aggressive and trying to get the first down by throwing on second and long, Parker goes back to being conservative and runs the ball on third down, leading to a Notre Dame punt. The series of events not only gave Ohio State the ball back with plenty of time to mount a game winning drive, but the incompletion on second down allowed Ohio State to hang onto their last timeout. That timeout ended up being the difference in the game.

All of that hate for Gerard Parker aside, the Notre Dame defense, who was great all night against the Buckeyes, had more than it’s fair share of chances to end the game on the final drive. The Irish dropped two interceptions on poor passes by Kyle McCord (OSU QB), one of which hit a ND DB in the hands and should’ve been an easy pick. Then after McCord was flagged for intentional grounding, the Buckeyes found themselves outside the Irish 20 yard-line, facing a 3rd and 19, with no timeouts left and just 17 seconds remaining in the game. All the Irish had to do was tackle Ohio State in bounds short of the first down marker and the game was over. The Irish had success bringing pressure all night against the Buckeyes, especially on the final drive. Instead, Marcus Freeman decided to rush three for one of the first times all night. The result was a completion for Ohio state of 20 yards, which included a first down, temporarily stopping the clock and allowing the Buckeyes to spike the ball. The Buckeyes would end up getting in the endzone of the final play of the game. But even allowing a 3rd and 19 wasn’t the worst part. The worst part was that on the final two plays from the 1-yard line, with possible National Championship hopes on the line, the Irish had just 10 men on the field. Yup, that’s right. TWICE.

This is mostly troubling to me, because I believe if I were a player on that team, I would not believe in my coach whatsoever. Now the Irish have to go on the road, to a hostile environment, and they’ve had all week to think about the fact that their coach couldn’t even get the right number of dudes on the field on the biggest play of the game. It’s not just a bad look for the ND head coach, but it makes me question how his players will respond this week.

Notre Dame’s Lack of Explosiveness

Notre Dame comes into the game with one of the nation’s best QBs, as discussed above, in Sam Hartman. Unfortunately for Irish fans, they haven’t gotten to see a high powered offense this season, but it is not Sam Hartman’s fault. Gerad Parker (ND Offensive Coordinator) has had this offense stuck in the mud from the start of this season. When you look at Hartman’s numbers, they are really good, but when you dig into the stats, you really see issues with this offense, and they were on full display last week against Ohio State. Over the course of the first four games, Hartman has attempted just 15 passes of 20 or more yards. That’s wild when you think about the quality of opponent ND has faced thus far (other than Ohio State), not to mention the fact that Hartman pushed the ball downfield more than any FBS QB last season.

On the other side of the ball, the Duke defense has yet to allow a single completion of 20+ yards all season. Duke’s defense as a whole has been outstanding against the pass, ranking 4th in the country in Passing Success Rate allowed. As mentioned before, Duke hasn’t played the toughest schedule thus far, but they do have a good data point in week one as they absolutely shut down the Clemson Tigers. It’s hard to imagine a team like Notre Dame, with that little offensive explosiveness, going on the road in a hostile environment and having to win by two field goals to cover against an elite pass defense. You would think, unless the Irish just have a historic day on the ground, that the Blue Devils can stay in this game going into the fourth quarter.

Pick

Overall, the Fighting Irish come into this game in a terrible spot, facing one of the more experienced teams in the country (17 returning starters this year), who have yet to lose a game this season. This is the chance for the Blue Devils to prove to everyone that they are a real player in college football. The Irish, on the other hand, have had an entire week to think about how they let one slip through their hands. Moreover, they have had the entire week to think about how their coach likely cost them the game. I believe the Blue Devils will be super up for this matchup, and I think they have a real chance to pull the outright upset over the Irish. Let’s take the points though. Take Duke +6. The line has fluttered from 5.5 to 6. Try to get the best number as always, but we will be backing the Blue Devils in this one.

Official Pick: Duke Blue Devils +6 vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Units: 1

Boise State @ Memphis Pick (9/30/23)

Boise State @ Memphis Pick (9/30/23)

Saturday College Football Matchup 9/30/23: Boise State @ Memphis

Line: Memphis -3 | Over/Under: 58.5

Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Capacity: 58,325)

Kickoff Time: 3:00 P.M. Eastern Time

Weather At Kickoff: 90 Degrees, Mostly Sunny | Wind = 8 MPH, Gusts up to 9 MPH

TV Network: ESPN2

Game Summary:

We have a battle between the Mountain West and the American Conference on the docket in this matchup, as the Boise State Broncos will be taking on the Memphis Tigers. Memphis steps into this one off their first loss of the season, as they dropped a tough one last week to the Missouri Tigers. Despite the loss, the Tigers hung with Mizzou for 4 quarters, eventually falling 27-34. On the other hand we have the Boise State Broncos, far removed from their Rose Bowl days, who come in 2-2, but currently on a 2-game winning streak after their narrow 3 point victory over San Diego State last week. Let’s dive in and take a look at which team has the edge in this Saturday afternoon matchup.

As mentioned before, the Memphis Tigers come into this one 3-1 (1-0 in American), with wins over Bethune Cookman, Arkansas State, and Navy. None of their wins are against any sort of stiff competition, but they took care of business in all three games, before falling to a superior Missouri Tigers team last week. 6’3 junior QB Seth Henigan (#2) has led the charge on the offensive side of the ball for the Tigers so far this season. The Tigers have bolstered the 26th ranked passing offense in terms of Passing Success Rate through the first third of the season. Henigan has already thrown for over a thousand yards this season through four games, averaging just under 280 yards per contest. Henigan has thrown for 8 touchdowns and rushed for 3 more, however he does have 5 picks on the year, and he needs to do a better job taking care of the football if Memphis wants to have a shot to win the American conference. Although Memphis hasn’t had the same success on the ground their offense (101st in Rush Success Rate & 98th in Line Yards), the Tigers offense largely depends on success through the air.

Defensively, the Tigers have been surprisingly good. They rank 4th in Passing Success Rate allowed, and 16th in havoc rate (shows pressure put on the opposing QB), and 17th in Quality Drives allowed. They definitely have not faced a tough schedule of offenses thus far, but they’ve definitely exceeded expectations.

On the other hand the Broncos come into this one off two straight wins, however they narrowly escaped last week against a below average San Diego State team, and their only other win came against an FCS opponent. The Broncos offense is pretty simple. It relies on one thing: Running the ball. If the Broncos can run the ball effectively, they can control the clock, make it a phyiscal game, and have a shot to win it. If they can’t run the ball, and they are forced into known passing situations, they are really going to struggle. The Broncos are 20th in the country in Rush Success Rate, but a horrific 114th in Pass Success Rate. 6’6 sophomore QB Taylen Green has really struggled in the passing game. He’s thrown for under 200 yards a game in their first four contests, completing less than 54% of his passes, and throwing just as many interceptions as touchdowns (4 each). One area Green has excelled is with his legs. Despite taking 10 sacks (rush yards are deducted on sacks in college), Green has rushed 27 times for 128 yards (4.7 YPC) and 2 TDs. He will absolutely have to utilize his legs in this one if the Broncos want to have a shot to pull the road upset.

Boise State Defense:

The Boise State defense has been absolutely horrible so far this season. They did face one of the best offenses (if not the best) in the country week one, in the Washington Huskies, however their other three opponents were San Diego State, North Dakota, and Central Florida. None of those offenses are projected to finish inside the top 50 in the country in efficiency. The biggest issue for the Broncos defensively is that they don’t have any strengths: They are horrible against both the run and the pass. They come into this matchup ranked 125th in Rush Success Rate Allowed and 114th in Pass Success Rate allowed. Both of those numbers are out of 132 qualified teams, so we are talking about one of the worst defenses (metrically) in the entire country. But, the main issue is the pass defense. This matchup is going to feature an opponent who comes in with a Top 25 Passing Offense and a very talented QB.

Last week the Broncos faced off against the San Diego State Aztecs. The Aztecs came in with one of the worst passing offenses for a non-option team in the country. Through 5 games, their QB Jalen Mayden, who was converted to safety his freshmen year due to his inability to perform as a QB, had thrown for over 200 yards just once in 4 games. Despite SDSU’s issues throwing the ball, they allowed Mayden to complete over 71% of his passes, and throw for a touchdown (and no picks). Now they go on the road for the second straight week, and take on one of the better QBs in college football. This is a terrible matchup for a Boise State secondary that really struggles to cover WRs (121st in coverage out of 132 teams).

Memphis Stopping the Run

It’s pretty clear that the Broncos are at a significant disadvantage on the defensive side of the ball. We also know that the Broncos cannot throw the ball a lick. So how do they hang in this game? The only possible way for the Broncos to pull the road upset would be to have a tremendous rushing day. Now Memphis has not been good against the run this season (62nd in Rush Success Rate, 86th in Line Yards), however those numbers are a bit skewed considering they played a Navy team who runs the option in week 3.

Additionally, despite the success of the defense against the pass, last week the reason the Tigers gave up 34 points to Missouri was largely due to Missouri’s passing offense. They averaged double digit yards per pass in the contest, and they needed every bit of it to hold off Memphis at home. It seems almost impossible for Boise State to find success through the air in this game, and that seemed to be the recipe to beat Memphis last week.

Pick:

Overall, the Memphis Tigers are the far superior team here. I don’t like taking favorites when the line seems to be a bit short, and that is what we have here. However, I think the line is just wrong in this case. I make this game 5.5 in my power rankings, and thus I’m getting 2.5 points of value laying the 3 here. Additionally, the Tigers are coming off a loss, traveling back home to face a team that is not nearly as good as the team they faced last week. It feels like a bounce back spot for Memphis, who has still yet to play their best football of the season. If Memphis plays up to it’s capabilities they will win this game by two touchdowns. If the don’t, I still believe they will have a good chance to pull this one out late and cover the short number. Laying short favorites isn’t my favorite thing to do, but this is too good to pass up. I’m backing the Memphis Tigers -3 in a bounce back spot at home.

Official Pick: Memphis Tigers -3 vs. Boise State Broncos

Units: 1

Baylor @ Central Florida Pick (9/30/23)

Saturday College Football Matchup 9/30/23: Baylor @ Central Florida

Line: Central Florida -10 | Over/Under: 57

Location: FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, Florida (Capacity (44,206)

Kickoff Time: 3:30 P.M. Eastern Time

Weather At Kickoff: 84 Degrees, Sunny | Wind = 15 MPH, Gusts up to 29 MPH

TV Network: FS1

Game Summary:

Baylor comes into this matchup off an incredibly rough start to the season, coming into this game with just one win and three losses. The first game of the season the Bears faced off against a Texas State team who had won a combined 10 games in the past 3 seasons. Despite the difference in program pedigree, The Bears struggled mightily, especially on defense. Texas State racked up 441 yards of total offense and on their way to putting up 42 points and knocking off the bears by double digits (42-31). The Bears especially struggled with the pass, allowing just under 300 yards, but more alarmingly they allowed 9.8 yards per pass to a team with a QB who is not known for his passing prowess.

The Bears next 3 games weren’t all that much better, going 2-1 in their last 3 games, with their lone win coming against an FCS team in Rhode Island in game 2. Most of the issues for the Bears have come on the defensive end, which is surprising given head coach Dave Arranda’s defensive background. Nonetheless, the Bears were absolutely dominated by the Longhorns last week in Austin. Baylor gave up 328 yards passing on just 25 attempts to the Horns (a staggering 13.1 yards per pass), and this was facing Quinn Ewers for most of the game. Ewers threw for just 131 the week before against Wyoming. The Bears were never in the game, did not score an offensive touchdown, and failed to cover as 17 point dogs, falling 6-32 to the Horns. The Bears rush defense hasn’t been much better. Even against Rhode Island, an FCS team with zero passing ability, the Bears allowed 5 yards per carry. It’s fair to say there is more than cause for concern in Waco at this moment.

On the other side we have a Central Florida team coming in at 3-1 (0-1 in conference). The Knights come in searching for their first ever Big 12 Conference win, after falling last week on the road to a solid Kansas State team, 31-44. The Knights have largely leaned on their run game through the first four games (60% Run | 40% Pass). As a team they have carried the ball 175 times for 1,041 yards (5.9 YPC), and 11 TDs. They’ve largely leaned on a pair of senior RBs, Johnny Richardson and RJ Harvey. The two have carried the ball a combined 91 times for 572 yards, 6.3 yards per carry, and 5 rushing touchdowns. One important thing to keep an eye on in this matchup though is in the passing game, with the health of John Rhy Plumlee in question. Plumlee was injured in the second game of the season and has missed the last two games. However, Timmy McClain (backup QB) has actually performed better in Plumlee’s absence. He’s thrown for 1 yard per pass more than Plumlee, 1 more touchdown, and 3 less interceptions (Plumlee has a negative TD to INT ratio at 3 TDs to 4 Picks).

On paper this matchup clearly favors the Knights, and the number opening at 11.5 makes a lot of sense when you factor in that the Bears got absolutely smacked by the Longhorns next week, their lone win is against an FCS team, and this is going to be their first true road game of the season. Meanwhile the Knights come in with just one loss, and although they lost to K-State last week, the game was close for much of the contest, despite the starting QB not playing.

All that said, this is a prime “Buy Low” spot for Baylor if you are comfortable backing a team in their first true road game. Nobody is giving the Bears a chance in this game, coming in as double digit underdogs against a solid football team in Central Florida. But let’s dig into why the Bears actually have a shot in this contest.

Baylor Injuries

Over the course of it’s first 4 games, the Bears have had some bad injury luck. During the week 1 upset, one bright spot was the play of QB Blake Shapen. Shapen took a lot of heat last season for his less than stellar performance, but you have to give him credit in game one. He looked much improved, albeit against a less than elite defense. Shapen returns this week, but whether Shapen is as good as he performed in week one is irrelevant: he’s a MAJOR upgrade either way. In stepped Sawyer Robertson in Shapen’s absence, a Mississippi State transfer. There’s no nice way to say it: Robertson was awful in his 3 starts for the Bears. In 3 starts, Robertson was 48/97, completing less than 50% of his passes. He threw for just 670 yards total, along with 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions. The get back of Shapen in this spot is absolutely massive for the Bears, if nothing else because Robertson was so bad.

Shapen isn’t the only one returning from injury this week. The Bears also get back some key pieces in the secondary. 3 CBs who were out last week against the Longhorns will be back this game. And, 6 total players return from injury in this game. In other words, Baylor is going into this game the healthiest it has been all season. In that aspect, Baylor is definitely in good shape.

Central Florida’s Pass Game:

The basic numbers show that Central Florida’s pass game has been elite this season. They have thrown for nearly 11 yards per pass, and they are 21st in the country in pass success rate. However, these stats are based on just a 4 game sample size, with 2 of those games coming against an FCS team (Villanova) and quite possibly the worst team in the FBS (Kent State). When. you look at the game against Kansas State, the pass game really wasn’t all that effective down-to-down. The Knights had just a 44% passing success rate against K-State, and McClain completed just 14/24 passes. They heavily relied on the explosive pass, generating 5 total completions of 20+ yards. Additionally, the Knights offense did put up 31 points on K-State, however 7 of those were on a late, meaningless touchdown.

Although Baylor has been horrific so far this year against the pass, they did hold a bad Utah passing game in check for most of the game at home in game two, and as mentioned before they are getting 3 key secondary pieces back for this game. Because of this, I don’t think Central Florida will have as much success as one would think based on the numbers. Additionally, one area the Knights have really struggled since Plumlee went down is sacks allowed. Negative plays have hurt this offense. Moreover, the Knights are just 61st in Havoc allowed on the season, and that includes 2 games with the very mobile Plumlee. If the Bears can manufacture some pressure in this game (which they should be able to do), you have to believe the Central Florida offense won’t be able to move the ball as well as they have against some lesser opponents this season.

Jobs on the Line

Lastly, one key aspect to throw in here is the gravity of the situation for Dave Arranda. A lot of very well respected football minds think very highly of Arranda. In his first year at Baylor he took a team with a projected win total of 6 games and won the Big 12. However, since then the Bears have been struggle city, there are a number of boosters who are not happy with the performance of the football team, and it seems that Arranda has been clearly placed on the hot seat in Waco.

When you look at the situation this could not be a bigger game for the Bears. Realistically, this game could be the time for the Bears to turn their season around, or it could be the game where Arranda loses the team. Starting 1-4, the Bears can almost guarantee missing a bowl game. However, if they were able to steal this one on the road, the next four games on the schedule are very winnable (vs. TTU, @ Cinci, vs. ISU, vs. Houston). What looks like a dumpster fire of a season could easily be turned around in one foul swoop. Because of this, you have to expect we are going to get the Bears best shot in this spot.

Pick:

Overall, I like the Bears in this spot. The improving health of the team, the return of their starting QB, and the gravity of the game for the coaching staff all combine to make Baylor a live dog in this spot. The Bears know their season is on the line here after the 1-3 start, and I have a feeling they know their coach’s job is on the line too. I think we see Baylor’s absolute best shot here, and I think Shapen delivers in a big way. I’ll take the Bears +10. I will say the one thing that gives me pause about making this a bigger play is the fact that it’s Baylor’s first true road game of the season. However, I think the factors pointing in Baylor’s favor here strongly outweigh the fact that this game is in Orlando. It’s also an afternoon kickoff, which is a significantly less crazy environment than a night game.

Full disclosure, I did get this at +11.5, but with the official announcement of Blake Shapen playing Thursday, we’ve seen this number dip to 10, and even as low as 9 in some spots. I’m going to grade this one at +10, but shop around and try to find the best number.

Official Pick: Baylor Bears +10 @ Central Florida

Units: 1

Louisville @ NC State Pick (9/29/23)

Friday Night Football Matchup 9/29/23: Louisville @ NC State

Line: Louisville -3.5 | Over/Under: 55.5

Location: Carter Finley Stadium (NC State Home Stadium)

Weather At Kickoff: 76 Degrees, Possible Lightning | Wind = 6 MPH, Gusts up to 14 MPH

Game Summary:

NC State has not looked great this year posting a 3-1 record, but with 2 unimpressive wins against Virginia and UCONN. In game 1 against a very bad UCONN team the Wolfpack struggled to pull away at home, prevailing 24-14. Their most recent game was even more troubling, as the Wolfpack squeaked by Virginia on a last second field goal; a Virginia team that has yet to win a game this year. Their lone loss came at home to Notre Dame 24-45, a game that the Fighting Irish thoroughly outplayed the Wolf Pack. That said, the game against Notre Dame was closer than the final score indicated. The Wolf Pack hung with the Fighting Irish for 3 quarters, but fell apart in the final quarter. Overall, nobody is picking NC State to win the ACC after 4 games. They look to be a middle of the road team in their conference.

On the other side we’ve got the Louisville Cardinals coming in at 4-0. The Cardinals have yet to play a true road game this season, although they have played two games away from their home stadium. The Cardinals are ranked 116th in Strength of Schedule through 4 games, and of the 4 opponents they’ve played, not a single one is an FBS team with a winning record (at time of writing). When you look at the Cardinals, on the surface, you see that they beat a pretty decent Georgia Tech team in their first game by 5 points, on a neutral field. However, that score does not tell the whole story. Anyone who watched that game saw that the Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech thoroughly outplayed the Cardinals for 3 full quarters, and looked to be the better team. Unfortunately for GT, they threw up all over themselves in the fourth quarter, and had to score a late touchdown just to cover the spread as 9.5 point dogs. Against Indiana, the Cardinals got out to a 21-0 lead and looked to be in control of the game. However, Indiana stormed back, cutting the deficit to 7, and at one point had the ball trailing 14-21 with a chance to tie the game. The Cardinals were able to pull out the victory, however it was another unimpressive performance.

When you break this game down the numbers clearly point in the direction of Louisville. They have the better offense by far. The Cardinals are averaging 305 yards passing per game compared to just 215 for the Wolf Pack. Even more impressively, the Cardinals have rushed for nearly 238 yards per game, compared to just 167 for the Wolf Pack. Neither defense is anything to write home about. Both teams are pretty good against the run, albeit against poor competition. NC State is slightly better against the pass so far this season. Brennan Armstrong (NCST QB) has not been good this year throwing for just under 215 yards a game, 60% completion, and 5 TDs to 4 Interceptions. Armstrong’s struggles have been one of the main issues in NC State’s offensive issues, but his legs are an intangible that could Louisville’s defense some issues. The Cardinals allowed Haynes King (GT QB) to rush for nearly 8 yards per carry, when factoring out sacks. Despite most of the numbers and matchups pointing to Louisville being the significantly better team, Louisville is going off at just a 3.5 point favorite. Why? The spot and the location.

Bad Spot For the Cardinals:

This is a terrible spot for Louisville. Last week they got to play a Boston College team off an emotional close loss to Florida State. The Eagles had the ball with a chance to drive down and win the game against one of the top 4 ranked teams in the country. Instead they fell to the Seminoles by just 2 points. It was a huge let down spot for Boston College coming into last week, and Louisville benefited, winning the game 56-28. This week the Cardinals are playing a team who will not be in a flat spot. This is a Friday night prime time game for the Wolf Pack, and a chance to show that they are still a legit contender in the ACC. On the other hand, Louisville comes in with a home game vs. Notre Dame on deck. That’s a massive game for the Cardinals and it’s logical to think they may be over looking this game tonight. It’s also likely that NC State did the same thing last week to Virginia, which is why that game came down to the wire. They had Louisville at home on deck, and they got in a tight game on the road against a bad team. I could absolutely see that happening here for the Louisville Cardinals.

Lastly factor in that this is a stand alone prime time game at night at Carter-Finley Stadium. This is an incredibly difficult place to play. It has proven to be an issue for far better teams than this version of the Louisville Cardinals. Then factor in that although Louisville has played two non-home games, this is their FIRST true road game of the season. The last place you want to play your first true road game of the season is Carter-Finley Stadium. That place is going to be absolutely rocking on a Friday night, and it’s going to be really tough for Louisville to get going early. If NC State can manufacture some offense early in the game and get off to a good start, which I think they will, I think Louisville could be in some trouble here tonight. NC State will be able to get a lead early, they will be able to have some long sustained drives against a mediocre Louisville defense, and this will put the Cardinals in an unfamiliar spot in a tough road environment.

Therefore, let’s go with the NC State Wolf Pack +3.5 at home tonight in front of a ruckus crowd at Carter-Finley Stadium. I believe NC State has a real shot to pull the outright home upset, so sprinkling some on the moneyline wouldn’t be a bad idea. However, let’s be smart here and take 3 and the hook.

Official Pick: NC STATE +3.5 vs. Louisville

Units: 1