College Basketball Best Bet (2/28/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 28, 2024 | 5:44 P.M. CST

Note: Went 1-1 on our Best Bets last night, and won our opinion easily, for a nice little profitable night. We keep grinding away and making profit on nights where the cards aren’t great. We’re going to try to do the same tonight. Our Under on Mississippi State/UK ended up going way over, but we actually were under until 58 seconds to go in the game. There were 27 points scored in the final minute of the game. The side was incorrect though, mostly because Chris Jans allowed his guys to run. Mississippi State’s only shot to win that game was if they slowed the game down, which they did in stretches, but they didn’t do it enough, and that allowed the game to get to way too fast of a pace. Our other best bet Notre Dame +6.5 we got the outright win, with the Fighting Irish upsetting the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Our opinion for just .5 units won easily, as we took Syracuse TT Over 77.5 and we were at 45 points in the first half alone. We went over with relative ease. Let’s take a look at the best bet for tonight.

Game: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Central Florida Knights

• Line: OSU -2.5 (-110) | UCF +2.5 (-110)

• Time: 7:00 P.M. CST

• Location: Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, OK (OKST Home Arena)

Summary:

We’re going to look to the home team in this one as the Cowboys have been playing much better basketball as of late. Oki State started off the season about as bad as possible, and conference play wasn’t much better. They lost six consecutive games to start Big 12 play, before finally getting a win over West Virginia. But the Cowboys are very similar to the team we looked at last night in Notre Dame. Their record isn’t great, and when you look at their metrics they aren’t good, however they are playing much better basketball as of late. They had won two straight games, including a home win over #19 (at the time) BYU. Saturday they faced off against their rival in Oklahoma, who is an NCAA Tourney team, and the Cowboys had them on the ropes late. They really should have won that game. OKST had the ball in a tie game with a chance to win it on the final possession. Javon Small, the leading scorer for the Cowboys, got fouled with just 4 seconds on the clock and went to the line for a 1 and 1. Small, who finished the game with 21 points and was outstanding most of the game (10/16 shooting), is an 85% free throw shooter on the season, but missed the front end of the 1 and 1. Thus we headed for overtime. Then in overtime, the Cowboys had a 1 point lead with less than 10 seconds remaining. OU held for the final shot, and Javian McCollum, who was 4/13 in the game and 1/9 from three at the time, settled for a terrible step back three at the buzzer, and BURIED it for the win. A heartbreaker for the Cowboys.

But the loss does not take away from the improvement the Cowboys have shown down the stretch in the toughest conference in the country. They really have been competitive lately, even in the games they’ve lost. The two losses by more than 5 in the past 9 games were at Houston and at Kansas, two of the toughest places to play in the country. The other four losses in that stretch were by 5, 4, 4, and 2. So they’ve been right in most games they’ve played. They’ve also won 3 games in that stretch. But more importantly, they’ve been significantly better at home. Both of those double digit losses I mentioned happened on the road. At home they’ve won 3 of their last 4, with the lone loss coming to OU at the buzzer (as detailed above).

Central Florida on the other hand, has been abysmal on the road in conference play. They are a horrific 1-6 on the road in Big 12 play, with their lone win coming at the Texas Longhorns, back almost a month and a half ago. In that win against the Longhorns, the Knights trailed by 15 points in the second half. In fact, at that point (trailing by 15), ESPN analytics gave them a less than 3% chance of coming back to win the game. But they went on a crazy run, while Texas’ offense went absolutely dry, and the Knights stormed back to win by 6. The Knights are actually 1-7 on the road overall on the seasons, as their lone non-conference road game came at the Miami Hurricanes, who have a very minor home court advantage by the way, and they lost that game by 15. So we have a team who who is 1-7 on the road on the season. They have lost on the road 6/7 times in conference play. And, their lone win came in a game where they had just a 2.7% chance to win in the second half. Those numbers all favor us fading the Cowboys tonight.

Lastly, let’s just look at the form as of late. Not only is Oki State playing better, but UCF is playing very poorly as of late. They did pick up a home win against Texas Tech on Saturday, but before that they had lost 4 straight games. That game against Texas Tech looks even less impressive after watching the Red Raiders get routed by the Texas Longhorns at home last night. Not only that, but the Knights have trended the opposite way of the Cowboys. They’ve actually played worse as the season has gone on. So we’ve got one team trending the right direction, playing at home where they play much better. And we’ve got another team trending the wrong direction, playing on the road where they’ve struggled all season. AND, we have the Cowboys off a loss here, and the Knights off a win. Oddly enough I like that better. Had the Cowboys won the game against OU on Saturday, and UCF lost to Tech, I would not have looked to this game. I’m less concerned with the UCF outcome, but I like that Oki State is coming off a loss. They will be very focused coming in tonight. They aren’t going to the NCAA tournament so this game is important to them, without having the pressure that comes with NEEDING this game. I think they play loose and have a good offensive night, despite the fact that UCF’s defense is pretty good.

Lastly, I want to mention the number. I like the Cowboys in this spot a lot. We’ve also seen professional money on the Cowboys as we saw this open 1.5 and get bet up to 2.5. The only thing that I don’t love about this number is the hook. I would really love it at 2. I make this number 3 according to my power rankings, if you remove the spot completely. So with the spot, with the trends as of late, it’s a touch higher. All that said, of UCF’s road losses, only one has come by 2 or less. So it likely shouldn’t matter. But with a total in the 139 area, that hook is somewhat important. Because of that we’re only laying one unit. But I do like this play.

I have two other plays I was strongly considering. I just don’t want to give them out, because I don’t love them, and I think this Oki State ticket is the best option on the board tonight. So let’s just roll with the one play. If anyone who follows my plays is dying for two extra SMALL plays, hit me up and I can give them to you. But I would just play this one. Thanks and good luck tonight!!

OFFICIAL PICK: OKI STATE -2.5

College Basketball Best Bets + Opinions (2/27/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 27, 2024 | 4:15 P.M. CST

Summary: 2-2 Best Bets on the weekend & we passed last night on the games in a limited card. Not the best weekend, but hey when your bad weekends are .500 and your good week was 10-1, you’ll take that every day of the week. We will try to get back on track tonight. I’ve got two Best Bets for you guys and one small opinion play. Best of luck!!

Best Bets (1U Each)

1) Kentucky @ Mississippi State UNDER 156

Look I hate taking unders here but this is a really tough spot for Kentucky. Mississippi State has been tremendous defensively on the season (9th in the country in Defensive Efficiency). They also play at one of the slower paces in the country. When these two teams met the first time we went over this total by 11 points, but that game was at Rupp Arena. This game is down in Starkville. Usually the home team has a better chance of controlling pace here. I think back to a game a week ago where I saw Wake Forest put up 91 at home against Pittsburgh. The game prior to that was at a slow paced Virginia team and they scored 47. So it definitely can be tough to get an up and down game going on the road vs a very controlled team.

Secondly, I’m just going to fade Kentucky’s previous outing. They were phenomenal against Alabama and they could not have shot the ball better (13/24 from beyond the arc). Now you go from playing at home, against a very below average defense, to playing probably the best defense in the SEC, on the road. It’s just a completely different spot. Now if UK comes out and just lights it up early and forces Mississippi State to play faster than they want to, we could get in trouble here. But I think this is going to be a much slower paced game. We’ve also seen UK have some pretty big let downs against some much worse teams following big wins this season.

2) Notre Dame +6.5 vs. Wake Forest

Look Wake Forest is a team that has been incredible at home, but it’s been a completely different story on the road. They struggle massively away from Winston Salem. In fact they’ve lost 6 of their last 7 road games in conference play on the road outright. Their only road win in that span came at Georgia Tech, who has very little home court advantage. Wake also lost at Pittsburgh and at Virginia who has been an absolute mess the last few weeks.

Notre Dame on the other hand has really improved from the start of the season. I like how they are playing as of late. In fact they had won three straight before dropping one to Syracuse on Saturday on the road. However, in that game the Irish were down 25 points and very easily could have laid down in that game. They aren’t really playing for anything at this point, as they aren’t an NCAA Tournament team. They were down big on the road, in a meaningless game and they fought all the way back to darn near win the game outright. They covered that number +5.5 as an underdog. Now they’re catching 6.5 at home, where they’ve played much better. They’ve played a number of really good teams close at home.

The most important thing about this game though in why I’m playing it is the spot. Look you can look through all the numbers and statistics you want, but if you have played AGAINST teams off massive emotional wins this season, you’ve made a TON of money. Just this weekend we saw Washington State go to Arizona State (who has a losing record). Wazzu was coming off a HUGE program defining win over Arizona on the road. They turn around two days later and lose outright to a bad ASU team as 5.5 point favorites (and we’ve seen this happen over and over this year to teams in those spots). This feels like a very similar spot with the Deacs upsetting Duke in that incredibly emotional game on Saturday. Now they travel to a tough ND team, who’s playing better, who plays super hard, and you’ve got to do something you haven’t done all year consistently: Win on the road. I think this is a TERRIBLE spot for the Deacs so we’re going to take the Irish here.

3) Syracuse Team Total Over 77.5 vs. VT

The Syracuse offense at home this season in ACC play has averaged right around what this number is (78.3 PPG). But if you look at how their season has gone → They struggled early in conference play offensively, and they’ve trended better as the season has gone on. In their last 5 games, 4 of them have gone over this team total, and they’re averaging 82.6 PPG (5 more than we need in tonights game).

Then we look at VT’s Defense on the Road: 

• Overall in conference play on the road, VT has allowed above this number in 6 of their 8 outings → They’re giving up an average of 79.6 PPG on the road 

• However, look how their defense is trending lately → they’ve given up 78+ in 4 of their last 5 road ACC games

• The only game they did NOT allow 78 or more, they gave up 74 (not far off from 78) 

• AVG PPG Allowed last 5 = 81.8 PPG 

So again, if you look at the season numbers here for these two teams → How Syracuse has been at home vs. how VT has played on the road, their probably isn’t a HUGE edge here. However, when you look at the way these teams have been trending in these spots, we get a number here that probably should be closer to 80 or 81.  

Pro Money: We’ve also seen a little bit of professional money come in on the Game Total OVER here as a whole → I think that’s a good thing for us. I thought about looking to that game total, but my feeling is if this game goes over, Syracuse is going to need to go over their team total anyways. So rather than need VT to get there too, let’s just ride with Syracuse if the numbers make sense, which they indeed do.

Look at Syracuse Offensive Ratings Overall on Season:

• eFG% = 50.5% (184th) → Not great

• 33.1% 3FGs (214th) → Not great 

• BUT what about in home conference games?

• Syracuse’s L5 Home Games: Shooting 40.6% from beyond the arc (that would be good for 2nd in the country) → Yes that’s a small sample size, but you could also argue it’s the direction they’ve trended as of late (they’ve shot the ball better as the season has progressed)

• Even if you take it back to the entirety though of the conference season at home they are 35.6% (80th in the country), which is still significantly better than their season long metrics of 33.1%  

• We see the same thing for Cuse’s eFG% → Overall on season 214th → Last 5 home games → 58.1% (that would be good for 3rd country)

Then You look at VT: On the season not been good defending the three → 33.8% allowed (184th in country). They are just as bad allowing shots to fall as a whole. Their eFG% Defense is 175th in the country. All those numbers get worse on the road as well.

But most importantly they really struggle to contain good athletic guards → They really do a horrible job protecting the rim 

• Syracuse has some really athletic guards 

• They are going to struggle staying in front of those guys with Catoor and Pagula (those are slow white guys, lol)

• And they don’t have a rim protector + their back up big is HORRIBLE 

Lastly: 

Syracuse: 48th in No. of possessions/game | 37th in adjusted tempo ⇒ So this team does play fast 

VT doesn’t play super fast = they are 168th in Adjusted Tempo (A little bit above average for D1) → But like I said their just so bad on the road defensively and I think this is going to be an up tempo game → Especially if Cuse gets a lead early = VT is going to be forced to play faster than they want 

Take CUSE Team Total over 77.5 here as my opinion of the day

College Basketball Best Bets (Sunday, 2/25/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 25, 2024 | 2:23 A.M. CST

Note: Went 1-1 on our best bets yesterday. Kind of a tough beat on Baylor. Baylor was absolutely dominated in the first half by Houston, but then the Bears were by far the better team in the second half. We were catching 2.5 and Baylor had a free throw with 4.4 seconds to go that essentially ends the game with us covering no matter what happens the final 4 ticks of the clock. Unfortunately the free throw was missed, and the Bears couldn’t buy a bucket in OT. Kentucky was a rocking chair winner, leading the entire way by 20+ and winning by 25. I likely could’ve had a better overall record had I pushed more plays yesterday, but knowing I’m due for a little spill of bad luck considering how hot we’ve been the past month, I didn’t want to push 8-10 plays and have it all go wrong in one day. Nonetheless, 1-1 is still not a bad day, and we’re just going to keep chipping away at the board day-by-day to generate consistent profits. Let’s look at the board for Sunday.

Best Bets: These will be 2U plays. Short summaries as I’m working on a CBB recap video right now.

1) Rutgers -2 vs. Maryland: Rutgers has been playing much better basketball as of late. They are a significantly better team on their home court, and Maryland’s home/road splits are horrific. Rutgers defense will be too much for Maryland and they will really struggle to score in this spot. I like Rutgers a lot here. I think they have a legitimate shot to win it by double digits.

2) South Florida +1.5 vs. SMU: South Florida pulled off the outright upset against FAU last week in front of a sold out crowd for what was probably the biggest win EVER for that program. So it was only natural to think they were going to have a let down the next game as they traveled to 8-16 UTSA a few days later. Despite playing about as bad as they possibly could, and trailing late, USF found a way to make some big time defensive plays down the stretch. They never folded, when it would’ve been very easy to do so. And they found a way to get out of San Antonio with a victory. Now they travel back home for another big time game. If the Bulls win today, it would mean they have a 2 game lead on FAU with just 3 games left to play in the season. There’s a very high chance a win here means an outright regular season conference title for the Bulls. I expect this to be another sold out crowd, and a great environment. Give me South Florida +1.5 as they take down SMU and take a big step towards winning their first ever American Conference Crown.

College Basketball Best Bets (Saturday, 2/24/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 24, 2024 | 4:18 A.M. CST

IMPORTANT NOTE: I’ve been on an absolute tear lately. Now, I honestly believe I’m one of the best college basketball handicappers out there, I know I can maintain a very high percentage of winners. Last year I did finish over 70% on the season, and I’m on pace to have a shot at doing that again this year. Additionally, usually the end of the season is BEST part of the year, largely because we have more datapoints to examine. But I also want to note that the pace we’re currently on is not sustainable in the LONG RUN (I believe it’s in the 80% range over the past few weeks). Obviously, I hope we keep the run going today and even all the way through the regular season (and it’s definitely possible). But I also want to caution that when you get this hot you are always due for a rough day at some point. I only say that to make sure all those following my picks aren’t pressing on the heater. Stick to your unit sizing, practice good money management, and never chase your money. My best friends who have tailed my picks for years know that there are going to be some down days, and down weeks, but in the long run we’re going to win A LOT. Okay enough of that - let’s have a GREAT Saturday and let’s keep this heater going!!

Best Bets (2 Unit Plays): I’m going to post my two top plays of the day here without breakdowns, as I spent a long time working on these picks and it’s now past 4 A.M. (LOL). I will try to get a YouTube Video out AND some written breakdowns on each of these picks, plus a few bonus games in the morning. There is a HIGH chance I add some official best bets tomorrow morning and/or throughout the day so if you follow, make sure to check in on the website throughout the day.

Best Bet 1: BAYLOR BEARS +2.5 vs. Houston Cougars

Best Bet 2: KENTUCKY WILDCATS -2 vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

• If you can find a cheap moneyline on Kentucky that would be good too, just to not have to worry about the points. I laid 2 because I got 2 (-110). Taking them moneyline not a bad option, but -2.5 -110 is okay too

Full Disclosure:

Leaning towards Wake Forest and UCLA but there’s a few things that are scaring me off these two right now. I would hold off on these two plays until I can decide whether I’m going to play them or not.

UCLA is far superior to USC, and the number is a bit skewed due to UCLA’s season long struggles (they’ve been way better lately). BUT, USC kind of matches up okay with them due to UCLA relying on points in the paint so much

Wake Forest is undefeated at home in ACC play. They take on Duke at home, and despite being unranked taking on a Top 10 team, the Demon Deacons are laying 2.5 points. It’s been bet up from 1.5 which I like. I also like that Wake did not shoot the ball well at all in these teams first matchup not long ago, and yet they only lost by 8 on the road. The only thing scaring me is Wake shot out of their mind against Pittsburgh their last game. I am leaning towards the Deacs right now, but haven’t pulled the trigger. I can’t tell where the the line is going to move in this game because without a doubt the public is going to come in on the Blue Devils, but there’s already been pro money on the Deacs early, so when limits increase in the morning we could get to 3. I won’t take it if it get’s to 3. Has to be 2.5 or lower for me to even consider adding it tomorrow.

Best of luck - check back throughout the day for more picks. Let’s start off the day with a Baylor winner and go 2-0!!

College Basketball Best Bet (Thursday, 2/22/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 22, 2024 | 5:06 P.M. CST

This Week Summary: We’ve been off to a BLISTERING hot start this week. I believe we are 9-1 in our last 10 plays overall. Going back to last week 19-4 run. Obviously that run is incredible, but all good things will come to an end. It’s nearly impossible to keep up that pace, but the reality is that in the totality of the college basketball season I’ve finished above 65% 3 of the last 4 seasons. So we’re on a high right now, there may be a low coming soon, but we just stay the course and continue to pick WINNERS!!

Tonight’s Card: I thought last night’s card was average. Tonight’s card is real tough. There is just not a ton of actionable games tonight. I considered going to Minnesota, who has been a covering machine. Fading Ohio State following that emotional win over #2 Purdue doesn’t seem like a bad idea at all, however the number on that game is just too high for me. Minnesota has been undervalued most of the season and I think they’re a bit overpriced tonight - so we’re staying away from that one. Instead of a big conference, we are going to go to a much smaller game, but still two good teams.

Game: Grand Canyon Lopes (24-2) @ Tarleton State Texans (18-7)

• Line: Grand Canyon -5 (-110) | Tarleton State +5 (-110)

  • Some places dealing 4.5, but you can still find plenty of 5 out there if you shop around

• Location: Wisdom Gym, Stephenville, TX (Tarleton State Home Arena)

• Time: 7:00 P.M. CST

Summary:

We are traveling to the Western Athletic Conference for our Best Bet tonight as we have the top two teams in the conference squaring off. Grand Canyon comes into this one as one of the best mid-major teams in the country. The Lopes come into this one 14-1 in conference play, with their lone loss coming at Seattle (3rd place team in the conference). Their lone non-conference loss came against South Carolina, an SEC team who was ranked as high as #11 in the country about a week ago. This is also a program that has experienced success in recent years, making two NCAA tournament appearances the past three seasons, although they were unable to secure a win in either of those tourneys. The two Grand Canyon teams that made the NCAA Tournament under Head Coach Bryce Drew had a respective 7 and 12 losses in their first and second trips to the Dance. This GCU team has just two losses with only a few games to play. So there is no doubt this Grand Canyon team is as legit as a team can be coming out of the WAC.

On the other side we have the second best team in the WAC in the Tarleton State Texans. The Texans come into this one playing some really good basketball. They are 11-3 in conference (2 games back in the loss column of GCU), and the Texans have won 8 of their last 9 games including 6 straight coming into this matchup. This is a massive game for the Texans if they want to have any shot of catching Grand Canyon in the regular season conference title race, and I believe it’s a pretty good spot for Tarelton State to pull off an upset.

When looking at the matchup the first key thing to look at is the home/road advantage for the Texans. First off, as good as Grand Canyon has been this season, they gotten to 14 conference wins by just running every team they play out of the gym. In fact, they’ve played their fair share of close games. Last time out they faced off against a Cal Baptist team that is in the middle of the pack in the WAC (7-7 in conference play) and they came out with just a 3-point victory, 79-76. At home against the third best team in the conference, the Lopes only defeated Seattle by 7. Both games they played against the 4th place team in the conference (UT Arlington) they won by just 6 and 7 points. And then we look at their road games. They lost to Seattle (their only conference loss) on the road by 7. They barely escaped Stephen F. Austin by two points, 53-51. So, again, I’m not saying GCU is bad on the road, but their distinctly worse than they are at home, where they carry one of the better home court advantages in the country.

Then we look at Tarleton at home where the Texans have been really solid the entirety of of this season. In conference play the Texans have just one home loss, which came against Southern Utah 7 games ago (the last loss they had overall). On the season the Texans are 9-2 at home overall, and they are 5-1 at home in conference play. What’s even more important though, is their two home losses this season have come by a total of 6 points (two 3 point losses). And again, we are catching 5 points in this spot. When we look at Tarleton’s Arena (Wisdom Gym), it’s relatively small. The arena holds just 3,000 fans, which can be an advantage if that place gets packed. Tarleton does a pretty good job getting fans to come out for big games. They had about 73% of the arena filled back in their last home game against SFA, and that is a team that is just middle of the pack in the conference. I believe the Texans are going to have a packed house tonight, as everyone knows how good Grand Canyon is. This absolutely feels like a spot where the crowd comes out, we have a really good home court environment, with a good home team getting way up to play the conference juggernaut. We basically saw this same exact thing last week when South Florida took on FAU at home in a massive conference game. South Florida, who has never packed their arena, sold that game out and had a crazy environment. The kids got up for the game, and South Florida was able to ride the crowd to a big upset over FAU. I see a similar outcome here tonight.

Last couple of notes of information here. Tarleton is coming off three straight road games. The other two times this season that the Texans have come back home after two or more road consecutive road games, they’re 2-0 in those games. Additionally, Grand Canyon is now traveling on the road after a three game home stand. The last time they went on the road following three straight home games this season, they suffered their lone loss in conference play this year to Seattle, 79-86. So everything here points to the Texans, which is why we are going to back them in this spot. The great thing is, we don’t need them to win the game outright as we are catching 5 points here. As I mentioned before, MAKE SURE to grab the best number. There is PLENTY of 5s out there. Get a +5 ticket. We have seen some professional money come in on the Texans here as well, which is why we went from 5.5 to 5 and even to 4.5 in some spots. Good luck and let’s keep this hot streak going baby!!

OFFICIAL PICK: TARLETON STATE +5 (-110)

College Basketball Best Bet (2/21/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 21, 2024 | 5:03 P.M. CST

Note: I don’t love the college basketball slate tonight. I had a fantastic night and we’ve been on an absolute heater, so my instinct is to try to find something here, but there’s really only one play/spot that I really like tonight. Rather than push something that isn’t there, here’s my favorite play of the night, and we will find some more value later in the week hopefully!!

Game: UNLV Runnin’ Rebels @ Air Force Falcons

• Line: UNLV -6 (-110) | Air Force +6 (-110)

• Location: Clune Arena, Colorado Springs, CO (Air Force Home Arena)

• Time: 9:00 P.M. CST

Game Summary:

Tonight the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels travel to Colorado Springs to take on the Air Force Falcons. It’s quite interesting how narrative in sports changes from year-to-year. About 11 months ago going into the NCAA Tournament, the narrative was that the Mountain West was not a very good conference, and once March hit they tended to struggle in the NCAA Tournament. After San Diego State put that narrative to bed with a run all the way to the National Title, this league is now one that many “talking heads” believe is one of the better conferences in the country. According to many bracketology experts, the MW is likely to get six bids into this years NCAA Tournament, and some even believe UNLV has a shot to make it seven, depending on how they finish the season.

One team that has no shot to make the NCAA tournament though, is the Air Force Falcons. They are the worst team in the Mountain West, sitting at an abysmal 1-11 in conference play (8-16 overall). Their lone win came against this very team they play in tonights matchup: UNLV. That game was by far the worst performance of the year from the Runnin’ Rebels, as they trailed Air Force by 15 at halftime, shot worse than 32% from the floor and 18% from downtown, and they lost the game by 32 points. That game came at home, and the Rebels were literally laughed off the court by their fans. It was an embarrassing performance by UNLV, no doubt, but let’s also look at the numbers for Air Force in that game. In that matchup, the Falcons knocked down 14 of 28 three-point attempts (50% from beyond the arc), and shot an incredible 68% eFG%. Now, the one thing Air Force does do well on the season is shoot the ball; they knock down 37% of their threes, and they shoot 54% eFG% on the season, but those numbers against UNLV in that game are still significantly higher than their season averages. All that considered, I would be shocked to see Air Force have a great shooting night in this spot. Not only are they unlikely to replicate their first matchup, but you know UNLV is going to come into this game motivated to knock off the Falcons in a big way, after that embarrassment they put on display a four weeks ago. This is a great spot for the Rebels.

After that terrible loss, UNLV really showed their mental toughness. A team unlikely to make the NCAA tournament at that point, coming off a 32 point loss to the worst team in the country, and their response was to go on a 5-game winning streak, which included going to the Pit in New Mexico and knocking off the ranked Lobos. In that stretch the Rebels were playing some outstanding basketball.

UNLV currently sits at 7-5, however they are one terrible call and a few plays away from having 10 conference wins. First off, playing against Utah State back in January, the Rebels led by 4 with just 11 seconds remaining. The game seemed to be at hand, as the commentator literally said “Utah State looking for a miracle.” As he said that, Utah State nailed a three with about 7 seconds left, and on the release of the shot a foul was called. The foul, though, was not on the shooter but away from the ball, which meant that not only did the three-pointer count, but the Aggies got to head to the line for a 1-and-1 and could actually take the lead. The college rule of allowing a 5-point play is already ridiculous, but if you were watching the game you also could see that it was one of the worst foul calls you’ve seen all year. Utah State went onto make BOTH free throws and win the game by 1. It was a game in which UNLV had a 99% probability of winning. Then we look at their most recent outing against rival Nevada. In that game UNLV had a 95% probability of winning as they led by double digits with under 10 minutes to play in the game. They also led by 7 with the ball with just 3 minutes to go. A really tough sequence of events squandered the game for UNLV and they dropped the game to Nevada by 3. Toss in a game at Colorado State in which they led by 4 with under 5 minutes to go, and they legitimately could have 10 wins. My overall point being, this team is not far off from being atop this conference that everyone seems so high on.

Next, let’s look at how the Rebels play on the road, as this is a true road game for them (and yes I hate taking road teams NORMALLY). Overall this season, the Runnin’ Rebels are 5-2 straight up in true road games. In conference play they are 4-2 on the road, and they are currently on a 3-game road winning streak, including a win at ranked (at the time) New Mexico. New Mexico has one of the better home court advantages in the country. In fact, their only two losses on the road this season came at San Diego State and at Colorado State, both of which are Top-25 ranked teams, with great home court advantages, and teams who are projected to be Top 6 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. And, as I mentioned earlier, the Rebels were a play or two away from winning at CSU, in which case they would be 6-1 on the road this season. Now they travel to Colorado Springs, for one of the worst home court advantages in college basketball. This is not going to be a gym that is rocking or even loud tonight. And even if it was, it wouldn’t matter, as the Rebels have been the best road team in the conference this season.

Lastly, UNLV is also coming off a loss here. On the season, the Rebels are 7-2 coming off a loss of any kind. I think it is also really important to note that they are coming off a heartbreaking loss to their rival Nevada. That game I discussed a little bit above, but the Rebels led by 8 at halftime. They led for the entirety of the second half, including by 7, with the ball, with 3 minutes to play. They also had gotten a stop, up by 1 with 45 seconds left, but allowed an offensive rebound and a bucket to lose the lead. Why is this important? Well, remember the heartbreaker mentioned above that they lost to Utah State in horrific fashion? Following that loss, this team went to Boise State and handed the Broncos their first home loss in 22 games. It was the nations longest home winning streak before UNLV pulled the upset. So this is a team that is extremely mentally tough, and they will be ready to go tonight after that tough beat against Nevada. They also have revenge on their mind as I mentioned before, which I think is important when trying to win by margin. I don’t think UNLV just wants to win this game, they want to win it by a lot.

Last Note: UNLV is also on the bubble for the NCAA Tourney. They are definitely a long shot for an at-large bid, but a second loss to 8-16 Air Force would 100% knock them completely out of contention. So this is also a big game just in terms of the totality of their season goals. For all those reasons, we’re going to fade the bad Falcons and back the solid UNLV RUNNIN’ REBELS on the road tonight to win and cover the 6.

OFFICIAL PICK: UNLV -6 (-110)

• Units: 2

Make sure to check out my YOUTUBE Channel @Slobberknockersports for more content and video breakdowns of games. You can also check out our full sports podcast for weekly episodes. Thanks and good luck tonight!!

College Basketball Best Bets (Tuesday, 2/20/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 20, 2024 | 4:59 P.M. CST

Note: I wanted to get these picks posted at least an hour before the tip off of the games. However, these picks are all going to be later than that time. Keep in mind the unit sizing here. Also check out my YouTube channel for video breakdowns of my two best plays of the night. I will not be giving an in depth breakdown of these games for time sake. If I have time in the next hour or so I will come back and give a more in depth analysis. But look to my YouTube video if you want the information and breakdown for now. Thanks and Good Luck!!

Best Bet of the Night (2 Units):

Creighton Bluejays +3 vs. UCONN Huskies (Play to +2)

Additional Plays (2 Units)

Utah State Aggies -2.5 vs. San Diego State (Play to -3)

Additional Plays (1U)

• BYU -4.5 vs. Baylor: To be honest I would’ve made this a 2U play if this line would’ve remained at 3, which is where it opened. There’s been significant sharp money on this Cougs pushing this all the way to 4.5. I think most of the value in the number is gone, but I still like the spot, so we’ll take this just for less (1U)

• Toledo -2 vs. Akron: Significant steam on Toledo, and they’re the best team in this conference

• Villanova -7.5 vs. Butler: This opened 6 and has been pushed all the way out to 7.5. Nova is playing much better and Butler is trending in the wrong direction. We’re at home, so I’m okay laying the extra 1 to 1.5 points here for a unit.

• UMASS -2.5 vs. VCU: UMASS plays much better at home, and VCU struggles to score at times, especially away from home. We’ve seen professional money on the MInutemen at 1.5 and 2 and we’re out to -2.5. Let’s lay it with UMASS as Frank Martin has the boys playing well.

Free College Basketball Pick of the Day (2/19/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 19, 2024 | 4:53 P.M. CST

Note: This is not an official bet in my portfolio, but a strong lean for my free pick of the day (I would not wager more than .5 to 1 unit on these). But they are going to hit at a higher rate than most people giving out picks. Official picks are usually 2 units for me for college hoops (for reference).

Game: Lamar (14-11) @ Southeast Louisiana (13-13)

• Line: SE Louisiana -1.5 | Lamar +1.5

• Location: University Center (SE Louisiana Home Gymnasium, Hammond, LA)

• Time: 6:00 P.M. CST

Summary:

These two teams come into this matchup in a logjam atop the Southland Conference Standings, with a number of teams fighting for second place. McNeese State is alone atop the Southland at a 23-3 overall record, but more importantly 12-1 in conference. Lamar is in a three-way tie for second place, sitting at 8-4 in the conference. SE Louisiana on the other hand sits 8-5, just one game back in the loss column of Lamar, as well as Texas A&M CC and Nicholls State. Thus, this is a massive game for SE Louisiana to continue climbing in the rankings.

After a rough 2-5 start to conference play, the Lions of SE Louisiana have won 6 straight conference games to get right back in the thick of things in the race for 2nd place. The Lions last loss came against none other than, Lamar. Going into that game Lamar was 5-2 in conference play, but they’ve won just 3 of their last 5 as they’ve cooled off considerably. Thus we have two teams coming into this game in completely different forms. SE Louisiana has not only won 6 straight coming into this game, but they also did what no other Southland team has been able to do this season: Beat McNeese State.

The Lions pulled the upset at home, where they have won 4-straight. In fact their last loss at home came over a month ago in mid-January. On the other hand we have a Lamar team that comes into this game that does not play well on the road. In fact, the Cardinals are undefeated at home in Southland Conference play (a perfect 6-0), while ALL four of their losses in conference play have come on the road. They are just 2-4 on the road against Southland opponents, and they have dropped games away from home to teams much worse than SE Louisiana. The Cardinals lost games to both Houston Christian and Incarnate Word. So it’s not as though they are just losing on the road to good teams. They have a legitimate issue playing away from home.

In addition to the Home Court advantage, I also like that SE Louisiana is playing a revenge game here. Lamar is the last opponent to beat them in conference play, and they’ve gone on a tear since. I believe they are going to come out extremely motivated to take down the Cardinals and avenge their most recent loss.

Lastly, I really like the way SE Louisiana plays. Not only are they the BEST three point shooting team in the Southland conference, but they are one of the better three point shooting teams in the country. The Rams have 5 players who shoot the ball at 35% or better from beyond the arc. That’s going to play a huge role here as the Cardinals have struggled to defend the three-point line, especially on the road. I see a huge shooting day from the Rams in this spot.

All of those factors together, you can easily guess with who we are going with for our free pick of the day. Back the RAMS of Southeast Louisiana and lay the 1.5 points. I like them in this spot, and I believe they are going to win this game by 7+ points.

FREE PICK OF THE DAY: SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA -1.5

College Basketball Best Bet (2/19/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 19, 2024 | 12:21 A.M. CST

Game: Virginia Cavaliers @ Virginia Tech Hokies

• Line: Virginia Tech -3 (-110) | Virginia +3 (-110)

• Location: Virginia Tech Home Gymnasium

• Time: 7:00 P.M. CST

Summary:

If you want to watch some ugly basketball, do yourself a favor and turn on a Virginia men’s basketball game. On Saturday morning the Cavaliers of Virginia faced off against one of the best offenses in the country in the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The total combined points scored in the game? 96. Yup, that’s right, they scored less than 100 combined points. Calling it a defensive slugfest would be a massive understatement. Still, the Cavaliers were able to find a way to win the game despite failing to reach the half century mark offensively. One big reason for that was UVA’s performance at the free throw line. The Cavaliers shot an abysmal 1/11 from the charity stripe, good for less than 10%. This included missing 5 of their final 6 in the final minute of the game, which gave the Demon Deacons multiple chances to get out of Virginia with a win. Luckily for the Hoo’s, the one thing they do have is an elite defense, and they really were forced to lean on it on Saturday.

Despite the lack of offensive prowess, the Cavaliers once again find themselves right in the thick of things for an ACC regular season title, just one game behind both Duke and North Carolina in the loss column with 5 conference games left to play. Somehow, someway, every single year, Tony Bennett has his team playing well at the end of the regular season. Now that doesn’t always translate to success in March (minus 2019), but you do have to give him some credit for always finding a way to have his team in the hunt for a title in what is usually one of the best conferences in the country (although not this year).

Virginia Tech on the other hand, has really struggled to find consistency this season, especially in conference play. Since the beginning of ACC play, the Hokies have only strung together back-to-back wins ONCE. That stretch was a three-game winning streak in which they came away with victories over NC State, Boston College, and Georgia Tech, two of which are at the bottom of the conference standings. Since that win over GT, the Hokies are just 1-4, with their lone win coming against Florida State at home last week.

All that said, this team is still a relatively talented bunch. Over the course of the season they have wins at home over Boise State, #10 Iowa State, and #21 Clemson. When looking at their performance on their home court this year, it has actually been quite good. The Hokies lone loss to a non-ranked team at home this season came against the Miami Hurricanes about 5 weeks ago. Even that loss wouldn’t qualify as bad, with the Hurricanes having such an up and down season, but still having a core group of guys that made an Elite 8 Run just last season. With that in mind, I think this is a really good spot for VT.

From an outsiders perspective, it looks unlikely that VT is going to make the NCAA tournament this year, a place they’ve become accustomed to going over the last half-decade. That said, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. They have 5 games left, probably only two games that will be possible quad 1 wins for them. Oddly enough, this game against a ranked Virginia team is NOT going to be a Quad 1 game, as the Hokies are outside the top 30 in the Net Ranking (42). However, with two road games against top 70 teams on deck, the Hokies are going to have some opportunities to get some Q1 wins, but they won’t matter if they drop this one to Virginia. Another Q2 loss on the resume, dropping to 14-12, and 6-9 in conference would all but eliminate them from NCAA tourney contention (at least an at large bid). The Hokies are well aware of this. Their backs are absolutely against the wall in this matchup, and they know how big this game is.

The second part of this matchup is that UVA beat VT the first time they played, and that was on UVA’s home court. Blacksburg is a different story. Virginia has really struggled on the road under Tony Bennett the last two seasons, and that includes this season. Despite the fact that UVA has played slightly better away from home lately, none of those wins were against a team in the Net Top 30. The road wins for the Hoo’s came at Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Louisville, and Clemson. That’s the bottom three and a Clemson team that has been horrific at home this season. Thus, this trip to Blacksburg is going to be a completely different animal for the Hoo’s.

Lastly comes the actual matchup. Virginia is one of the worst offensive teams in the country, but one of the best defensive teams in the country. VT is the complete opposite; they carry an explosive and highly efficient offense, but really struggle on the defensive side. The reason that this matchup favors VT though is because of that offensive power. UVA relies on a pack-line defense that makes it extremely difficult to get into the lane and score in the paint. They force you to shoot contested threes from the perimeter. The problem is that VT is a very good shooting team. They have the style and the roster to be able to break down the UVA defense. On the otherside, the thing that VT really struggles with defensively more than anything is defending post players. They got absolutely eaten alive against UNC on Saturday by big man Armando Bacott. In fact they’ve gotten eaten alive by anyone with a real post presence all season. The good news for the Hokies is Virginia has no real post threat. They rely heavily on their veteran guards in Reece Beekman and Isaac McKneely. Ryan Dunn is more of a forward, and their only true seven foot post man from last season transferred to Texas. So they have nobody who is going to give UVA big problems inside.

For all of those reasons I really like VT in this spot. I would really try to get to this number as fast as possible. If it gets any higher than 3 I would pass on it. The value is definitely there at -2, -2.5. I would be okay taking -3 but nothing higher.

Official Pick: VIRGINIA TECH -2 (-110)

College Basketball Top Play of the Night (2/18/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 18, 2024 | 4:39 P.M. CST

Top Play of the Night: UCLA BRUINS -2 vs. Utah Utes

Units: 2

Summary: Don’t have time for a full summary but this is a very sharp play, and we’re going to get some serious CLV here so give me the Bruins who are playing some fantastic basketball right now. They have a legitimate shot to win the conference tourney and get into the dance.

College Basketball Best Bets (2/18/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 18, 2024 | 10:01 A.M. CST

The following are some official 2 Unit plays for today. These are not my top play of the day (see next article).

Top Plays of Sunday’s Slate (All 2 Units):

• South Florida +5.5 vs. FAU: South Florida is a shocking 11-1 in conference and they are currently coming into this one on a 10-game winning streak. They are one of the surprise teams this year not just in the American Conference, but in the country. This might actually be the biggest game in their school history in terms of men’s basketball. A win here would not only put them to 12-1 in conference play and 20-5 overall, but it would give them a 2-game advantage over FAU for the American regular season title. FAU isn’t what they were last year. Don’t get me wrong, they have a ton of talent, and a lot of guys from that Final Four run returned. However, they have had some really poor outings this season. They lost to Bryant early in the season for God’s sake. Even in conference play they’ve had a number of very close calls, and despite coming in 10-2 in conference play, this group could very easily be 7-5. Thus, catching 5.5 at home, in a game that the kids from South Florida will no doubt be up for, we’re riding with the home dog. This is the first sell out for the school in program history. That place will be rocking.

• Evansville +4.5 @ Illinois State: I don’t like taking road teams, but in the MVC, there are some places that just do not have much home court advantage. Illinois State is one of them. Additionally Illinois State is coming off a massive road upset of #23 Indiana State earlier this week. So this is naturally a let down spot for them. On the other side, Evansville started off conference play horrible. But they’ve been playing much better basketball as of late. The Purple Aces had won 5 in a row before back to back losses. However, both those losses came on buzzer beating threes. The one last game against Drake was a half court shot that banked in at the buzzer. So even in their recent losses they’re playing great basketball and have just gotten a bit unlucky late in games. I think 4.5 points is just too much here, in a let down spot for Illinois State, who by the way has a losing record on the year overall. Give me the Purple Aces again here.

• Ohio State +8.5 vs. Purdue: Back Big 10 Home teams. It’s pretty simple. If you do this blindly this year you’re over 60% which is tremendous. This one is not blindly backed though. The truth is this number feels short. Purdue has been destroying teams as of late, and often times they are laying double digits on the road. The problem is they’ve been covering those numbers. So why is this number only 8.5? It seems fishy to me, which is why I like the home dog here. Ohio State is not going to the NCAA tournament, barring a miraculous run in the Big 10 tourney to win it all. They also fired their head coach, Chris Holtman following their win earlier this week. The thing about that is teams usually respond well to a coach getting fired, and they tend to come out that next game and play extremely hard for the assistant who just stepped in. The Buckeyes also have some really athletic bigs and I do think they have the ability to at least give Eddy some trouble underneath. They aren’t going to be AS undersized at the 5 position as some of the other teams in the conference are. It’s risky no doubt, and the Buckeyes could get blown out, but I just think the spot is too good to pass up. Give me the Buckeyes +8.5

College Basketball Best Bet Plus Full Saturday Card (2/17/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 17, 2024 | 2:37 A.M. CST

Note: This IS an OFFICIAL BEST BET that is being given out to my paying clients. This is my top play of the day for my Saturday card. I’m currently on a 10-3 run including a +250 hit. We are up BIG over the course of the season, picking over 64% winners on my Official Rated Plays. If you wish to get ALL of my top, official plays, text me at 210-836-8820 to sign up for an a premium account. You will get access to ALL my plays in real time as I make them. Stop losing today and text me. I’ve been in this business for over a decade and have a proven track record of success. There is only a month left in the season before the tournament starts, so jump on board quick. Enjoy the breakdown and good luck tomorrow in all your wagers!!

Game: #21 Virginia (19-6) vs. Wake Forest (16-8)

• Line: Virginia -1.5  |  Wake Forest +1.5

• Location: Virginia Home Arena (John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA) 

• Time: 11:00 A.M. CST

• Projected Attendance: Sell Out 
  

Virginia

• ACC Record: 10-4 (3rd in ACC)

• Home Record: 13-1 

• Home Conference Record: 7-1

• Against the Spread: 14-11

• ATS Conference Home: 4-2-1

Wake Forest

• ACC Record: 8-5 (4th in ACC)

• Road Record: 2-6 

• Road Conference Record: 2-5

• Against the Spread: 12-11-1

• ATS Conference Road: 2-5

Game Breakdown: 

We have an ACC clash between the teams ranked 3rd and 4th in the ACC currently. We have two programs in much different places, both coming in near the top of the conference late in the year. On one hand the Virginia Cavaliers are a team that is nearly an automatic lock to get in the NCAA tournament each season, winning a National Title just 5 seasons ago in 2019. The Demon Deacons on the other hand, are looking to get back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2017. A win at a ranked Virginia team would go a long way in helping seal that tournament birth. Unfortunately for the Deacs, this is an incredibly difficult spot on the road. Let’s dive into why we like the short home favorite in this one. 

Virginia is coming off a home loss in conference play, as they dropped one to Pittsburgh on Tuesday night, 63-74. As bad as that loss may seem on the surface, Pittsburgh has surprisingly turned its season around after a dreadful start, and they actually sit 6th in the ACC standings right now. In terms of current form, UVA was playing some outstanding basketball before their loss to the Panthers. The Cavaliers had won 8 games in a row before dropping that game on Tuesday night. It’s also worth noting that Pittsburgh recently went into Cameron Indoor and defeated a Top 10 ranked Duke team on the road. So the Panthers are no stranger to pulling an upset or two. Additionally, in the game against the Panthers, Virginia really didn’t play poorly. They shot 50% from the floor as a team and turned the ball over just 5 times.

The difference in the game against Pittsburgh was the Panthers went absolutely nuclear from the three-point line (14 made threes on 43% shooting), while the Cavaliers couldn’t buy one.  Even though Virginia is not a great offensive team, they surprisingly are a very good three point shooting team overall this season. They shoot just under 38% from downtown, which is good for the 19th best mark in the country. In the game against Pittsburgh the Cavaliers shot just 4/14 from deep (28.6%). Going into the Pittsburgh game, Virginia had shot 42.1% from three in home conference games on the season (48/114). It’s highly unlikely that we will see a repeat of Tuesday night from the 19th best three-point shooting team in the country. Isaac Mckneely, Virginia’s second leading scorer (12.5 PPG) shot just 2/6 from downtown. On the season he has shot a staggering 47.5% from three (including the off performance against Pittsburgh), so I like McKneely to get back on track in this one in a big way. He’s been absolutely lights out this year. 

Wake Forest is an excellent three-point shooting team in their own right, knocking down 37.3% from behind the arc this season (27th in the country). However in ACC road games, that number drops significantly. They have shot just 29.4% from three on the road in conference, and only two of their seven conference road games have they even shot above 33% from downtown. Wake isn’t totally reliant on the three, but they often find themselves continuing to launch from beyond the arc, even when they aren’t falling. The Demon Deacons take more threes than anyone else in the conference. 

Spot:

The matchup in general is a pretty good one for Virginia, but the spot is even better. The last time Virginia lost back-to-back home games was February of 2022. They lost those two games by a combined 5 points, and the back-t0-back losses came in the lone season since 2016 in which Virginia failed to reach the NCAA Tourney (this year they made the NIT). In fact, over the last 7 seasons, Virginia has lost back-to-back games at home just one time (which was that time in 2022. On the other hand we have a Wake Forest that has struggled on the road all season 

Their lone wins on the road in ACC play have come against Georgia Tech and Boston College (two of the worst teams in the ACC). The Deacs are just 2-6 on the road overall this season, 2-5 in ACC play on the road, and 2-5 against the spread in those same games. So, we have a team who is elite at home, coming off a home loss in a building they almost NEVER lose two in a row, playing against a team that has had massive struggles on the road this season. All of these things give a strong edge to the Cavaliers of Virginia. 

Revenge spot:

This definitely is a big revenge spot for Virginia, as they were demolished by the Demon Deacons earlier this season (19 point victory for Wake). I don’t always love the “revenge” spots late in the season, because sometimes there’s too much stock put into them. However, this Virginia team is miles better than they were when these two teams faced off for the first time this season. On the other hand, I believe Wake’s best basketball is behind them. The Demon Deacons started the season on an 11-3 run, including a 3-0 start to ACC play. However, they are just 5-5 in their last 1o games. In that span all 5 losses have come on the road, and only ONE of their 5 wins in that span came outside of their home building (and that was against Georgia Tech). 

PICK:

Overall, this is just a bad spot for the Demon Deacons. It’s a back-to-back road game, while the Hoo’s are playing their second straight home game. As mentioned, the home court advantage for Virginia is massive, and they are playing against a team who has struggled mightily on the road. The Demon Deacons also seriously lack depth on their roster, and it’s very easy to get worn down against this Virginia defense over the course of 40 minutes. The Deacs may keep it close early, but over the course of the full 40 minutes, the Cavaliers are going to pull away. Give me Virginia in this one and let’s lay the 2.5 or 3 points. This line has moved all over the place. It was being offered at ESPN bet at -1.5 for a while on Friday night. It moved as high as -2.5. So shop around for the best number 

OFFICIAL PICK: Virginia -1.5 (play to -2)

Units: 2 Units

Additional OFFICIAL Picks: (All 2 Unit Plays)

• South Carolina -7 vs. LSU + South Carolina -4 (1st Half) vs. LSU (1 unit on each, 2 Total)

  • I really like South Carolina in this spot, however I hate laying more than 6 points with teams like South Carolina who struggle to score. Therefore I’m going to play this game two different ways. First we’re going to take South Carolina minus the seven points. LSU is a team that has just struggled this season. They’ve had a few close losses in SEC play, but on the road they have been really bad. Their lone impressive road win in conference was at Texas A&M, who is down this season. South Carolina on the other hand is 13-1 at home this season. They’ve been really tough to beat in general this season (11th in the Net Rankings), but they have been especially good at home. They are also coming off their worst loss of the season, as they dropped one to Auburn on Tuesday night by 40 points. Normally you think a loss to a good team like Auburn could carry a hangover effect, however I believe the Gamecocks are going to forget about that loss pretty quickly. When you lose a game that bad, you usually just throw it out and move on. There’s nothing to dwell on, nothing to be upset about in terms of bad officiating, or an unlucky break. It was just the Gamecocks worst game of the season and Auburn’s best game of the season.

  • The one reason I am a bit weary to take South Carolina is because of their inability to score at times. They have an outstanding defense, but they go through spurts where they can’t score. I believe they will wear down LSU over the course of 40 minutes, however I think it’s almost impossible for the Gamecocks to not have at least one dominant half. Therefore, instead of just taking the game I am going to take both the first half and the game. I think the Gamecocks have a very good shot to come out and jump all over the Tigers. If they do we will win our first half bet, and we will have a risk free bet on the Gamecocks with an advantage going to half. If they somehow struggle in the first half and don’t cover the 4 points, I believe they will have a good chance of dominating the second half. There is no way LSU is going to cover both of these numbers. So let’s go ONE unit on each of these, TWO units TOTAL on this game.

• Illinois -2.5 @ Maryland

  • This might be the first legitimate road team I’ve taken this entire season, and it could also be the last. The bottom line is this number is COMPLETELY wrong. This number should absolutely be Illinois -5.5. The fact that they are laying just 2.5 here is forcing me to bet them here. The reason Illinois is just a 2.5 point favorite is multi-fold. Number one, winning on the road in the Big 10 this season has been an absolute nightmare, so that is built into the number. Number 2, Maryland beat Illinois the first time these two met in Champagne. And, it was not by a small margin, as the Terrapins won that game by 12 points. Number 3, Illinois has not won at Maryland in over a decade. In fact the last time Maryland dropped one to the Fighting Illini at home was back in 2011. So all of those things combined have been taken into account with this number. The problem with all of that is this Illinois team is significantly different; I actually believe they are one of the best 10 teams in the country. Additionally, this Fighting Illini team is an excellent three-point shooting team on the road. It does not make any difference to them in terms of the location of their games for their shooting percentage from beyond the arc. Second, the fact that Maryland beat Illinois the first time they played this season actually benefits the Illini. This is going to be a revenge game for Illinois in this spot, and this is the type of team that will actually use this as motivation. Lastly, Maryland’s home court advantage is nowhere near what it once was. I just don’t see that advantage making too much of a difference in this game. I do think it will be a tight game, but Illinois should control it throughout and I believe they will end up easily cover the 2.5. Take ILLINOIS in this spot and lay the 2.5.

• Colorado State -6 vs. Utah State

  • This is a simple breakdown. Utah State was the beneficiary of a lot of close wins early in the conference season. There were two games in which Utah State had less than a 10% post-game win expectancy, and they won both games. On the other hand, Colorado State is coming off a brutal loss against San Diego State on the road. The Rams led that game by 14 at halftime and scored just 11 points in the second half. That win would’ve put them in great position to have a shot at a top 5 seed, as well as a conference title. Instead that loss cemented them as a 6 seed at best, and largely ends their hopes of winning the MW regular season. They are going to be eager to come out and redeem themselves for that showing. This Colorado State team overall is SIGNIFICANTLY better than this Utah State team, plus they are playing at home. Utah State is playing much worse basketball than they were earlier in the season. They are also overly reliant on their post player Great Osobor, who has really struggled as of late. His inconsistency will rear it’s head today and the Rams are going to dominate the Aggies. Give me the Rams and lay the 6. Love this spot and this pick

• Southern Illinois +4.5 vs. Indiana State

  • This game is pretty simple. Indiana State started off conference play in the Valley with 13 wins in 14 tries. That led to the team being ranked in the top 25 for the first time since Larry Bird was in school. The problem is it’s a completely different game mentally when you are ranked in the top 25. It’s the same thing when you see a team who isn’t used to being #1 in the country. When they get that ranking they end up losing relatively quickly, because they just aren’t used to having that target on their back. We saw that rear it’s head for the Sycamores against Illinois State the other night where they dropped one at home by double digits to a team at the bottom of the conference. That loss really hurt ISU’s shot at getting in the NCAA Tourney with an at large bid. The issue for them even more-so is now they are going to the toughest venue in the conference. SIU has an extremely underrated home court advantage, and if you follow college basketball closely you’d know how tough it is to play there. That place is going to be absolutely rocking on Saturday night (tip set for 7 P.M. Eastern Time). Additionally, when you’ve had a long winning streak that’s finally broken, the public tends to think that you back the team to bounce back. However, that’s not usually the case. More often what happens is that team on the long winning streak felt like they were unbeatable in that stretch. And now that the streak has been broken, they tend to lose some confidence. This is a TERRIBLE spot for ISU to lose confidence, as the Salukis play a super aggressive, loose style of basketball. I believe this is going to be a very tight game, and I think the Salukis are a real live dog here. In that case, in this spot, we’re taking the points with the home dog in a tough environment to win for opposing teams. Give me the SALUKIS plus the points (+4.5)

Plays Summary:

Top Play: Virginia -1.5

All Other Plays:

• South Carolina -4 (1st Half)

• South Carolina -7

• Illinois -2

• Colorado State -6

• Southern Illinois +4.5

Best of luck. And if you want all my premium picks, text me at 210-836-8820 or send me an email.

Free College Basketball Pick 2/13/24: Drake @ Evansville

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 13, 2024 | 2:37 P.M. CST

If you are not a paying/premium subscriber, please contact me via email, text, or social media, and you will get all-access to my wagering portfolio on a daily basis. Enjoy the breakdown.

Game: Drake Bulldogs (20-5, 11-3 MVC) @ Evansville Purple Aces (15-10, 6-8 MVC)

Spread: Drake -8 (-110) | Evansville +8 (-110)

Drake Bulldogs:

• 20-5 Straight Up (SU)

• 12-12 Against the Spread (ATS)

• 12-12 Over/Under (O/U)

• Drake on the Road: 4-4 Straight Up

Evansville Purple Aces:

• 15-10 SU

• 16-7-1 ATS

• 9-15 O/U

Summary:

Evansville had a fantastic start to the season with a 10-2 record through their first 12 games. Unfortunately late in non-conference they had a skid, and it bled into their conference play. Early on in conference play they had some really bad losses. They lost 7 of their first 8 conference games, and 5 of those 7 losses came by double digits. 3 of those games came by 20+ points, including a 30+ point loss to Bradley and a 49 point loss to Drake the first time these two teams played. Yup, that’s right, they lost by 49.

So why is the line only 8? Well, Evansville is playing much better basketball as of late. In fact since that 1-7 start, the team is 5-1 since then. They were on a 5-game winning streak until it was broken Saturday in a road matchup with Murray State. It took a Murray State buzzer beating 3 to knock off the Purple Aces on the road, and they played some pretty darn good basketball in the loss.

Additionally, when we look at the other team that embarrassed the Purple Aces in the first round of conference play in Bradley, the Braves won that first matchup (at Bradley) by 37. The second matchup between the two came last week and Evansville actually won the game at right on their home floor, 73-70. It was a wild turnaround (40 points). So even though you look at that first matchup between Drake and Evansville and think, man how can they stay within this number? The truth is that the Purple Aces are going to be very competitive in this one, and I actually think they are a live dog.

Now I wouldn’t bet on them moneyline, but I do believe they have a great shot to stay within this number at +8. The Purple Aces are also shooting the ball at a very high rate recently. The past two games they’re shooting 45% from downtown and they’ve hit 18 threes their last two outings. They’ve hit at least 8 threes in 5 of their last 6.

Overall, I believe that the Evansville is going to keep this game very competitive, and they will be motivated to prove they can beat this Drake team, after already avenging one embarrassing loss earlier this week. Give me the PURPLE ACES in this spot plus the points, as we are backing the home dog!!

OFFICIAL PICK: Evansville Purple Aces +8 (Play to +7, Graded at +8)

College Basketball Best Bets Tuesday (1/13/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 13, 2024 | 2:11 A.M. CST

Below are my best bets for Tuesday’s college basketball slate. These are both free plays, released to everyone. If you want to purchase my premium plays, please hit my up via email, text, or social media. These picks will be released early to allow followers to get ahead of line movement today. However, I will try to post these picks with in depth breakdowns tomorrow before tip off occurs. Good luck, and let’s keep the money coming in!!

Best Bets:

Top Play #1 of the Night: Providence -1 vs. St. John’s

• 2 Units

• Short Summary here is that Providence has been really good at home, and they are facing a struggling St. John’s team that has struggled on the road. They’ve all but been eliminated for an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament, and their effort has reflected that in their recent games. They are coming off blowing a big lead at #4 Marquette, and that is likely to wear on their minds coming into this one. Additionally, Providence has been playing some great basketball at home. It’s a super tough place to play. It’s also a revenge spot as St. John’s beat them earlier this season

Top Play #2 of the Night: Butler +4 vs. Marquette

• 2 Units

• Short Summary here is that Butler is playing it’s best basketball of the season, as they have won 6 of their last 7. They’ve lost just twice at home all season, and although it’s not the toughest place to play, it does carry a significant home court advantage. Marquette is a veteran laced team, but they struggled last game at home against St. John’s and required some incredible performances to come back and win that game at home, against an inferior team, mainly from Tyler Kolak (who was outstanding in that game). One thing to note is that Butler actually went into Marquette earlier this season and got a road win against the Golden Eagles. While I normally don’t like playing against a team in a revenge spot, I’m choosing to look at that game differently. I think the Bulldogs are just a poor matchup for the Golden Eagles. Lastly this is just too many points to pass up in this spot. Catching a whole 4 points, at home with an really solid unranked team against a team who is ranked in the top 5 is oddly enough something we don’t get much anymore, largely because the markets have adjusted to these spots. Additionally, this is a HUGE look ahead spot for the Golden Eagles, as they have UCONN on deck this Saturday, and they will no doubt have that game on their minds. That game is a MUST WIN for Marquette to have any shot of winning the regular season Big East Title. It also will solidify them as no worse than the #2 seed in the Big East Tournament. Overall, tough spot for the Golden Eagles, and I’m just always taking the points in a game like this. Give me Butler all day here, and thanks for the 4 extra points Vegas.

College Basketball Play of the Week (Paid Play)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 12, 2024 | 5:17 P.M. CST

Note: If you are viewing this pick, you are a paid customer and I’d like to thank you for joining on. We lost on the Team Total with the Chiefs yesterday, HOWEVER we CASHED BIG on the Chiefs +250 live, when they were down 10-0. We also cashed on the Kyle Jusczyk over .5 recption, over 3.5 receiving yards, and Brandon Aiyuk Under 4.5 Receptions. We finished the night 4-1 with a 7.5 Unit Profit!! Congrats to all who followed, and I’ll continue to produce you guys winners over the long run!! Now let’s get to the play of the day.

Best Bet Monday: Texas Tech -2 vs. Kansas

• Units: 3 (We are currently 3-0 on our 3 Unit Plays this year)

• Summary: This line is completely off. It opened at -2, while a lot of places have gotten to -3 (I still like it at -3). First off, let’s start with the fact that Top 10 teams on the road this season against unranked opponents are currently winning outright at just a 43% rate (down 30% from the avg. the previous decade). That numbers is even worse in the Big 12. In the Big 12 Conference, UNRANKED TEAMS playing at home against a TOP 10 CONFERENCE OPPONENT are a staggering 8-3 straight up. If Tech pulls off the upset tonight, that would be a 75% win percentage for unranked teams in the Big 12 against Top 10 teams at home. So if you’re wondering why Tech is a 2-3 point favorite here, despite the fact that they are unranked and Kansas is ranked #6, that’s why. So just in terms of the spot, I love taking the home team in this spot. There is no doubt it’s going to be ROCKING tonight in Lubbock, and the Red Raiders will be very up for this game. They are going to get off to a hot start, and that place is going to be going bonkers. I also like that Tech hasn’t played great as of late. They haven’t shot it as well as they have on the season the past couple games, and I think they are due to break out here against a Kansas team that is short handed. We also have a Kanas team who is playing shorthanded (which I’ll get to in a second), and even when healthy this team has really struggled on the road in conference play. The Jayhawks are just 1-4 on the road in the Big 12 this season, and their lone win came against Oklahoma State, who is in last place in the conference with just a single conference victory. They have losses to Central Florida, West Virginia, and Kansas State, none of which are very good this year. The only road loss you can throw out is the Iowa State loss, as everyone tends to lose at Iowa State, and they are a very good basketball team. Then you have the Red Raiders playing at home in one of the better home court environments in the country (at least when the Red Raiders are good).

• The Jayhawks come into this game with the best starting lineup in the country WHEN HEALTHY. The problem for them tonight, is they are NOT healthy. Kevin McCullers Jr. (KU’s leading scorer) will miss his second straight game with a shoulder injury, and that is a HUGE loss. McCullers didn’t play Saturday in the Jayhawks game against Baylor at home in Allen Fieldhouse, and the Bears nearly pulled off the upset in a place where NOBODY has won all season. Kansas pulled off a narrow 3-point victory over Baylor, but failed to cover as 5.5 point favorites. In addition to losing McCullers, towards the end of the game against Baylor Dajuan Harris, Kansas’ all-world PG, turned his ankle pretty bad. He did return to the game, but he was clearly hobbled. Bill Self came out and said that he thinks Harris is going to give it a go tonight, however there is no way he’s anywhere near 100% in this one. Now, injuries can be tough for any team to deal with, but they are especially tough for the Jayhawks, because of their lack of depth. As mentioned, they may have the best starting 5 in the country, but even when fully healthy they don’t have anyone off the bench who provides consistent play. Starting tonight in place of McCullers will likely be Nicolas Timberlake. Timberlake, a Towson University transfer, was expected to be a knockdown shooter for the Jayhawks, however he has really struggled so far this season (which caused him to lose most of his minutes in the rotation). He’s also a HUGE step down defensively. Late in the Baylor game he made a number of significant mistakes that led to Baylor getting two WIDE OPEN looks at threes to tie the game in the final seconds. But it’s not just Timberlake who’s struggled. The Jayhawks bench has been awful all season, and due to an illness to Jamari McDowell Kansas actually will only have 7 scholarship players available for them in this game. In addition to the healthy starters and Timberlake, that includes a true freshman who lost his starting spot early in the season, and Christian Braun’s younger brother who is clearly not ready to get minutes in meaningful college basketball games at this level.

• Overall, I think this is one of the more mispriced games I’ve seen all season when you take into account spot, health, location, and rankings. Texas Tech would have a legitimate shot to win this game if the Jayhawks were completely healthy, so getting them at -2 (or -3) seems like an absolute steal. I LOVE this pick. It’s one of my favorite picks of the season, hence why it’s a paid, premium play. We’re going with a full 3 units on this one. For those who do not know, that is the second largest play I give out. And we are currently undefeated on our 3 unit plays this season. I have not given out a 4 unit play so this is the largest bet of the season (or tied for it). Let’s get our big time 3-unit wagers to 4-0 tonight with a Red Raider win in Lubbock!!

OFFICIAL PICK: Texas Tech -2 (play to -4) vs. Kansas

Update (February 13, 2024 @ 2:05 A.M. CST):

This play was released live to the public at 11 P.M. CST. Once again if you are NOT a paying customer, you will NOT receive my biggest plays. You will receive my free plays, which are still hitting at a very high rate and will turn profit in the long run. If you want access to my top plays and ALL my action hit me up on social media, email, or phone (I’ll include that info below). Follow me on TikTok or YouTube as well as sometimes I post my picks there (I just don’t say how many units on those videos to be fair to my paying customers). This play was an EASY winner and all my paying customers cashed their tickets. Congrats to all you guys who follow me and thanks for the support!!

Dylan’s Contact Information:

• Phone: 210-836-8820 (Text for info or inquiries)

• Email: dylanliecksports@gmail.com

• TikTok: @dylanlieck21

• Twitter: @dylanlieck21

• YouTube Channel: @slobberknockersports

Paid Play Saturday Best Bets

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 10, 2024 | 9:00 A.M. CST

Note: These plays were released to all paying customers at 9:00 A.M. this morning. I set this article to go live at 8:15 P.M. so that they would be posted. All paying customers got all big plays way ahead of line moves and got the best number. Anyone who is viewing this as a non-paying customer, you will get the late games free, however if you want the full slate ahead of line moves text Dylan at 210-836-8820.

Official Best Bets Saturday:

• Big Play of the Day: Michigan State -3 vs. Illinois (3 Units)

Other Plays of the Day (All these 2 UNITS)

• Bradley -3 vs. Drake

• Texas A&M +2 vs. Tennessee

• Colorado -1 vs. Arizona

• Stanford -2 vs. USC

Small Play of the Day (1 UNIT)

• BYU -11 vs. K-State

College Hoops Best Bet (2/4/2024)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 4, 2024 | 10:11 P.M. CST

Today’s Summary: Finished 2-2 on the day, frustrating finish. Our losers were Georgia and Kentucky. Georgia had a double digit first half lead and played fantastic. They unfortunately choked it away in the second half. At the time of my last 5 losses, it was the 5th straight that lost after being ahead by 10 or more at some point in the game. Regardless it was a loss. The other loser was the most dissapointing: Kentucky. Plain and Simple they got outplayed. They were outcoached, as Coach Calipairi is just a horrific basketball coach. Great recruiter but he needs to retire and do something else. He single handedly cost this team the game, and he is going to cost them their season early in the tournament. The wins were relatively easy winners: UNC led the entire game and was never in doubt and Kansas was ahead by double digits from the first 7 minutes all the way to the end of the game. Overall 2-2 day.

The 13 to 1 parlay went 2-1. With the lone loss being Ole Miss, who you guessed it, led by double digits. It feels like if my luck ever turns good I’ll be picking at 80%. Cannot catch a break the last couple weeks and we are STILL POSITIVE!! That’s when you know you “This ain’t no hobby” - we push on and forward. Next play see below

Official Play for Sunday:

Pick: WISCONSIN +2 vs. Purdue

Wisconsin has been playing outstanding basketball this season, but they are exceptional at home. Purdue is obviously a very good team, and they’ve been outstanding in conference play. However they do have two losses on the road in conference (@ Northwestern and @ Nebraska). Wisconsin is not only better than both those teams, but they also have a much better home court advantage. Wisconsin is also coming off a loss last game at Nebraska. It’s also important to note that Wisconsin led in that game by 15 at halftime. They led by as many as 18 in the second half, and yet they found a way to let Nebraska come back and win it. The problem is that the crowd was a huge part of that. Nebraska is undefeated at home in conference, including a double digit win over Purdue. I think off a loss, at home, against a Purdue team that is a bit over rated, this is a fantastic spot for the Badgers. This is an easy pick for me. That doesn’t mean it’s an automatic winner. It just means that I’m backing the Badgers in this spot at this number 100 out of 100 times. Take the Badgers +2 as they will pull off the home upset against the Boilermakers tomorrow.

Units: 2

College Hoops Best Bets (Saturday, 2/3/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 3, 2024 | 4:55 P.M. CST

Best Bets For the College Hoops Slate this Saturday (Official 2U Plays)

• Kansas +1.5 vs. Houston (2 Units):

• Kentucky +1 vs. Tennessee (2 Units)

• Georgia -1 vs. South Carolina (2 Units)

• North Carolina -3 vs. Duke (2 Units) - Do not like it at worse than -3

If San Diego State were to get anywhere under 3, either before the game or even if you can find a live early in the game if the Aztecs start slow, Utah State has been due for a loss for a while and SDSU NEEDS this one. I believe the Aztecs will dominate the Aggies, but I’m just not willing to lay 5 points yet.

Opinions/Small Plays: I haven’t bet any of these yet, but I’m considering a few (I’ll note which ones)

• Texas A&M -2.5 vs. Florida (this bet I like, but Tyrese Radford, A&M’s PG, got arrested a day ago and his status is uncertain = that matters a lot to this game) - but if this is under 3 and Radford plays, this one has a good chance of getting upgraded to a real play

• Clemson -4 vs. Virginia: Virginia is horrific on the road, and don’t let one win at GT fool you. Clemson NEEDS this win, I see the Tigers by close to double digits

• Central Florida +1.5 vs. OU: This is a weird one, but I lean to UCF. OU is a weird, inconsistent team

• Oki State +1 vs. K-State: This is the game I like the least, but I think Oki State has a good shot. K-State looked like they quit last game, in a huge spot for them, at home against a struggling OU team. They got smoked, and Oki State is due for a win. Coming into this one at home. They’ve played some real tough, close games at home against teams way better than K-State. Talent wise there really isn’t much gap. And I think Jerome Tang may have lost the team. K-State just is a weird team which is what is keeping me off this one right now.

• St. John’s +3 vs. UCONN: St. John’s is a very weird team. But they play really well at home, and really poorly on the road. UCONN is due for a road loss, as it’s just too hard to keep winning against good teams away from home. The fact that it’s UCONN is keeping me away at the moment. I have a lot of respect for Dan Hurley and that program, and they are the most talented, well-coached team in the country.

ML Parlays:

1) Safer Option: Kentucky +100 | Kansas +110

• Pays 3.2 to 1 (I think both teams win at home and getting nearly 3.5 to 1 is a good number)

2) Longer Shot Option: Central Florida +110 | Ole Miss +140 | Louisville +200

• Pays 13 to 1

PAID CBB Play of the Month Recap

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 3, 2024 | 4:35 A.M. CST

Because I have a select few people currently purchasing my top plays of the month, most of my 3-4 unit plays will not be posted on this website to the public until they are recapped following the game. If you wish to purchase these plays, please contact me at 210-836-8820. You’ll never pay for a play if it loses, only if it wins. And you will only get plays that I have bet myself at the numbers I officially can get.

Play of the Month Recap

Sport: College Basketball

Pick: Nebraska PK vs. #6 Wisconsin

Units: 3

Result: Winner

Summary:

For my official play of the month, a 3-unit paid play, we went back to a familiar spot, backing a BIG 10 team at home against a ranked opponent. The transfer portal has largely leveled the playing field in college hoops, and long gone are the days of backing the ranked road favorites to cover numbers. That said, this game was anything but easy. The plain, simple truth is that I knew going into this one that there was many possible paths to victory for Nebraska, and this was a TERRIFIC spot for them, while it was a terrible spot for Wisconsin.

The #6 Badgers have absolutely exceeded expectations this season, but I believe we reached the peak of their market value in this one, which is partially why I liked it. Wisconsin came into that game with only one conference loss, tied for first place in the Big 10. The team they were tied with, the Purdue Boilermakers, are coming to Madison on Sunday, so this was a classic look ahead spot. We add to that the gravity of the game for Nebraska, as the Cornuskers badly needed this win over a top 10 team to boost their NCAA Tournament Resume. Additionally, Nebraska got back Juwan Gary, one of their top players who had missed a significant amount of time. Nebraska was also 11-1 at home this season, and undefeated (a perfect 5-0) at home in conference. They have a very underrated home court advantage. So we have a healthy Nebraska team, at home where they are excellent, in a spot where they badly need a quality win, facing off against a Wisconsin team in a look ahead spot, who was due for a poor performance, playing on the road where they’ve been average this season so far. Lastly, add to the fact that the Cornhuskers already dismantled #1 Purdue at home earlier this season, and that was a Purdue team I feel is way better than Wisconsin (at least in terms of talent).

Unfortunately, the game could not have started more poorly for the Huskers. AJ Storr, the sophomore transfer from St. John’s for the Badgers, started the game off with back-to-back 3s, and scored Wisconsin’s first 10 points without missing from the field in that stretch. The Huskers dug themselves quite the first half hole, and despite a little run before halftime to cut it to single digits, the Badgers responded well and took a 16 point lead into halftime. Going into halftime, two things were true. One was last year, where the Huskers trailed AT WISCONSIN by 14 points, but came back to force overtime and win the game. Two was that since 2000, Wisconsin was 120-0 when leading by 15 or more at halftime (they led by 16). But, that doesn’t matter for our Huskers! They made a furious run, and their shots finally began falling. They were able to get the game back to even, before once again giving Wisconsin control of the game. They trailed by 7 with just 4 minutes to play, but found a way to go on an 11-4 run to finish regulation. The Badgers were able to score with just 20 seconds left to tie the game, and Nebraska couldn’t hit a buzzer beater, which led this one into overtime (advantage Nebraska).

In the overtime, Mast (Husker’s big man) took over the game with some huge buckets in the post down the stretch, and Nebraska pulled off the incredible comeback to win the game. It wasn’t pretty, and despite all the bad luck we’ve caught in football season this year (where we still finished over 64% in NFL and nearly 59% in college) we finally got one to go our way. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. Or at least to not be unlucky.

Official Play’s of the Month Record: 2-0 (College Hoops) +6.0 Units

Check out my most recent blog post for my best bets for this SATURDAY as we have an absolutely LOADED SLATE!!

College Basketball Best Bets (1/27/2024)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 27, 2024 | 2:38 P.M. CST

Best Bets (2U)
1) Boise State -2.5 vs. Utah State

2) Richmond +3 vs. Dayton

Love these two plays

Small Play Opinions:

1) Iowa State -3.5

2) Miami -4

3) Florida State +7

4) NW -2.5

5) Mississippi State +2.5