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NBA Playoffs Best Bet (4/25/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 25, 2024 | 2:09 P.M. CST
Best Bet for Tonight:
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -2 (1st Quarter) vs. New York Knicks (-105)
If you’ve noticed the bets during the playoffs, we’ve tended to stay away from straight spreads and totals and instead look to derivative markets, because the lines at this time of year are very sharp and well priced, that it can be difficult to get in at a good number. In the regular season, I would probably never look to a 1st quarter bet because they can be unpredictable, however I think we have a distinct edge looking at the 1st quarter in this matchup.
I think it’s pretty clear to anyone who has watched this series that the 76ers are a few plays away from being up 2-0 in this series. The first game, Phili led for the majority of the first three quarters before squandering the lead late in the game. That game still came down to the final few possessions, and it took Josh Hart making THREE triples in the fourth quarter for the Knicks to win (keep in mind Hart had been so bad from 3 lately that they were just leaving him wide open all night). Game two was even more disturbing if you are a Sixers fan, as they squandered a 5 point lead with under 30 seconds to play, and lost in regulation by 3. Thus, the Sixers come back home Thursday night down 0-2 in the series. All that said, I think it’s fair to say that the Sixers got quite unlucky with how games 1 & 2 played out. At the very least they deserved a split. Unfortunately for Phili, they ARE down 0-2, and for all intents & purposes this is a must win game for them. If the Sixers lose Thursday night, they might as well shut Embiid down and let Nick Nurse book his vacation to Cabo.
With all that in mind you have to believe the Sixers are going to come out focused on Thursday night in front of their home crowd. Not only is it a must win game, but it’s also their first home playoff game, and Philadelphia will be rocking. Every Sixers fan believes they can still win the series & we’re going to hear them on Thursday night. As I mentioned already, the Sixers are also coming off a devestating loss in their previous outing. For some teams you might think there could be a bit of a hangover effect, but I think this Sixers team is pretty mentally tough. You could hear it in both Maxey & Embiid’s voices after Game 2; they are itching to get back out there. So from a motivational & situational perspective I really like the Sixers to get a lead early.
Then you look at how the first two games in this series played out and you see that Philadelphia absolutely dominated the Knicks early on. They won the first quarters by 9 and 7 points, and those were both road games. And, the truth of the matter is that this is just a tough matchup for the Knicks. The length of Phili’s wings who have been guarding Brunson are really giving him trouble, as he’s shooting under 30% on the series from the floor and from beyond the arc. I don’t see that changing in this game. I think Phili is going to come out mad and focused and they will jump all over the Knicks the same way they did in the first two games in New York. So let’s go with the 76ers in the first quarter -2
Official Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -2 (1st Quarter), -105
Units: 1
NBA Playoffs Best Bet (4/23/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 23, 2024 | 5:35 P.M. CST
Best Bet In Pacers/Bucks Game:
So we’re going to look to the Pacers Team Total in the first half here. They went way under their season average in the first half against the Bucks in Game 1, so we’re expecting a bounce back here. The Pacers are the best offensive team in the league, and the Bucks have really struggled on the defensive end this season, and that includes most of the year WITH Giannis. I’m pretty certain Giannis is not going to play in game 2, and we’ve seen no indications up to this point to make us think otherwise. So just from a matchup perspective I like this one.
Then we look at Indiana’s last 20 games offensively in the first half of games. 15 of their last 20 they’ve gone over this total of 54.5 in the first half. Two of the five games that they failed to go over this total, they scored 54. So really we only have 3 games in which the Pacers were not all that close to reaching 55. Additionally in that span of their last 20 games, 11 of those games came on the road (and they play on the road tonight). In the 11 games they played on the road, they went over that total 9 times. One they didn’t, they still scored 53 (2 points shy) and the other came against one of the slowest pace teams in the league in the Orlando Magic (47 points in the first half). So we have a team that usually goes over this number, and goes over it on the road at an even higher pace than they do at home (at least in their recent games). In those 20 games they’re scoring an average of 63 PPG in the first half, which is 8 points over what we need here. Additionally, they are scoring 64 points per game in the first half on the road in that same span, so we’re gaining an additional point per game in road trips.
Lastly for this total, I do think the Pacers had issues with nerves early on. They shot an incredibly low percentage in the first half, and I do believe that is correlated with the fact that they have a lot of guys who are young and who have very little (or no) playoff experience. We saw them start to settle in during the second half offensively and play much better. Additionally, I would be concerned as a Pacers fan if they struggled against the Bucks in the regular season. If that were the case, you could make the argument this is just a bad matchup for the Pacers. However, that’s not the case. The Pacers actually beat the Bucks 4 of their 5 matchups during the regular season. Additionally, the Pacers went OVER this first half total in ALL 5 of their matchups with the Bucks in the regular season, averaging just under 63 PPG in the first half in those games.
So we’re going to go with ONE UNIT on the Pacers in the first half to go OVER their team total of 54.5. Now I want to add one thing. One thing I noticed in researching this game and this bet was that in those 5 games during their last 20 that the Pacers FAILED to eclipse 55 points, ALL 5 times they came back in the 3rd quarter and scored AT LEAST 29 points. Because of that I’m going to add a second bet CONTINGENT ON us NOT going over in the first half. If the Pacers fail to go over 54.5 points in the first half, then we are going to come back and take the Pacers to go OVER their 3rd quarter live total ONLY if it is 29 points or less (which I believe it will be). Even in game 1 when the Pacers failed to go over their first half total of 54.5 they still scored 29 on Milwaukee in the 3rd quarter.
So, in recap, we are going to go with ONE UNIT on the Pacers OVER 54.5 points in the first half. If they DO go over that number, then we’re done and we take our 1 unit profit. If they FAIL to go over that number and we LOSE the first half bet, then we’re going to take the Pacers OVER their 3rd quarter total ONLY if the number is 29 points or less. I believe we are going to see right at 28.5 which is fine. That said, if this number opens 29.5 do NOT take it. Just take the one unit loss and we will bounce back with our next couple bets. I believe we will win the first half bet easily, and I believe that they will go over their 3rd quarter total easily if we don’t win it. However, I don’t want anyone taking a bad number, and 29 is the key number for us in the 3rd quarter. That’s the exact number they’ve gotten to every time they have a low scoring first half. We’re not going to chase if we see 29.5 or 30. So that’s my best bet for the night. Best of luck and enjoy the game!!
OFFICIAL PICK: Pacers Team Total OVER 54.5 (1 Unit)
If it wins, we’re done
If it loses, we’re taking Pacers OVER Team Total in the 3rd quarter, provided the number is 29 or LESS (1 Unit)
NBA Player Prop Best Bet Nuggets vs. Lakers (4/22/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 22, 2024 | 6:47 P.M. CST
I’m irritated I didn’t give out my early game play. I liked the Cavs in the first quarter against the Magic but decided not to give it out on the website. They won the first quarter comfortably. That said, here is my favorite bet of the night. It’s a player prop in the late game (Lakers/Nuggets)
Best Bet:
DeAngelo Russell OVER 16.5 Points (-114)
This line actually opened at 15.5. It got bet up from -110 all the way to -140. Then it finally flipped to 16.5 points. I don’t think the extra point matters. I’d actually prefer to have it at 16.5 with relatively low juice, compared to laying -130 or -140 at just a point less. Regardless, I think this is a fantastic play. Russell has had his struggles in the playoffs, especially against the Nuggets, and I’m not going to sit here and argue that he hasn’t. However, I trust numbers. And the numbers show that his volume is extremely high on this team; and, they show that he’s never had as good of a season (over the course of a full 82 games) as this one. Over the course of the 23-24 regular season, D-Lo shot a career high in terms of 3-point percentage. He went 1-9 in that first game against Denver. That’s not going to continue at that low of a rate. Especially because a lot of his looks were open shots. It’s not as if Denver is keying in on him. Those same shots are going to be there in game 2. Plus he will have an extra two days to adjust to the altitude.
I also especially like this because Russell took 20 shots in game 1. While I’m not sure he gets THAT volume game 2, it’s going to be in that realm (14-17 shots). And when you look at the rest of the Lakers role players, NOBODY has stepped up in the post-season. Ruri Hatchimora & Austin Reeves have both been absolute shells of themselves compared to last year in the playoffs. Gabe Vincent has been a complete non-factor. And Taurean Waller Prince is playing sparing minutes. So A lot of those shots that may normally go to those guys, are likely going to D-Lo. I think this is purely an efficiency issue. If D-Lo shoots remotely close (33%) to his season average from three, he goes over this easy.
OFFICIAL PICK: DeAngelo Russell OVER 16.5 Points
Units: 2
NBA 1st Round, Game 1 Best Bets (4/20/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 20, 2024 | 10:11 A.M. CST
Happy birthday Bob Marley! In his honor, here are my best plays for day one of the NBA Playoffs. We’ve got a loaded slate, with a quadruple header today and tomorrow. Enjoy the game and tail responsibly!
Best Bets:
1) Cavs -4.5 vs. Magic (2U):
The Magic have not beaten anyone with a pulse this season. They’ve thrived on beating the bottom feeders. This Cavs team isn’t incredible by any means, but they are the better of these two teams, and they have the best player on the floor in Donavan Mitchell. They also have the playoff experience that the Magic lack. This will be basically the first playoff game for almost everyone on this Magic team. The Cavs have Mitchell, Niang, & Struss, all with significant experience in the post season; and, those on the team who don’t have a TON of experience in this situation, still played in a tough series against the New York Knicks last season. Additionally, the Cavs have been a top 10 defense all year, however they struggled down the stretch due to injuries. They are definitely healthy at this point, but even if their struggles continue for the first few games, the place they have the most trouble is defending the three point line. The Magic are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, at just over 35%. So I don’t see them exploiting the Cavs weaknesses here. There’s a reason this series price is -200 for the Cavs, one of the highest favorites on the board. And we’re laying a relatively short number in game 1 at home. We’ll take the Cavs here and expect a low scoring output from the Magic. I thought about taking this game first half due to the fact that the Magic are going to likely come out with some nerves. But I just think there’s very little chance Cleveland loses this outright. So just in case, let’s take full game, although 1H would be a good play too.
OFFICIAL PICK: Cavs -4.5
2) Knicks -3 vs. 76ers (2U)
All the Knicks have heard for a week is how vulnerable they are as a #2 seed and how they have no shot to go deep in the playoffs after losing Randle. I think talking heads are forgetting how terrible Julius Randle has performed in the playoffs with New York (or with anyone for that matter). He’s just been AWFUL. The addition of Divincinzo has been massive for the Knicks, as they actually have another consistent scoring option in the backcourt (who can also SHOOT the ball). The 76ers on the other hand, were very fortunate to get out of that first play in game against the Heat, trailing for the entire game til the fourth quarter. It took a crazy effort from Nicholas Batum to get the Sixers to the 7 seed. Additionally, the thing that the 76ers really struggled with in that game was the Heat defense. They went zone for stretches and gave them absolute fits. The Sixers don’t have the defense to keep up with a team who can score if they go in long droughts. The Knicks are the best defensive team in the NBA. I just think this is a bad matchup for the 76ers. I also strongly question the health of Embiid. He did not look close to 100% in that play-in game. Yes, he will still be effective, but the Knicks have some long, athletic bigs that could give him some trouble, the way Bam did in stretches. Plus the Knicks are coming in as the more rested team, and the Sixers played a very emotional up and down game in their last matchup, and now have to travel on the road. I got this at 3. It’s moved to 3.5 in most spots. Shop around and try to find the best number but we’re rolling with Brunsen and company, who I believe is the BEST player on the floor in this series with a hobbled Embiid.
OFFICIAL PICK: Knicks -3
3) T-Wolves -115 vs. Suns (1U)
The Suns have become a really trendy pick to beat the #3 seed T-Wolves in this series. I get the thought process, considering the regular season matchups between these two teams. The Suns were 3-0 SU against the T-Wolves, covering all 3 games and winning each by double digits. That includes a win over Minnesota the final game of the regular season in Minnesota, where the Suns absolutely DOMINATED the Wolves from start to finish to seal that 6 seed and lock up a re-match with that same Minnesota team. The series price for this one favors the Suns slightly, but I do think that is a bit of public money, as the Suns are the MOST public team in this first round. From a matchup perspective, it isn’t great for the Wolves. Why? Because they have Rudy Gobert, one of the NBA’s worst playoff performers. He causes multiple matchup issues for his own team due to his inability to guard the perimeter, switch, or play any sort of ball screen defense other than drop coverage. That said I think it’ll take Phoenix a game or two to adjust and start to really exploit it. We just have to win game one. And the thing is, Minnesota KNOWS they’ve got to get this first one to have a shot in this series. They cannot drop game 1 at home, knowing they have been dominated by this team all year. They are going to be ultra focused on this one. Lay the moneyline and don’t mess with the points. I found a -115, but shop for the best number.
OFFICIAL PICK: T-Wolves -115
National Championship Best Bets (4/8/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 8, 2024 | 6:53 P.M. CST
Well we already have a nice little future on Tristen Newton at +550 to win the Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four. The first game he had a solid night, even though he didn’t shoot the ball all that well. He still finished the game with 12 points and most importantly 9 assists. That is really going to give him a shot in the title. I also like that the guy who had the best night for UConn in the semis was Stephon Castle. Castle is a freshman and it’s really tough for guys that young to perform consistently on this stage. Not to mention that he doesn’t play the minutes Newton does, nor does he have the ball in his hands as much as Newton. Clingan was pretty good, but not incredible, and that’s all we needed because the play all along was basically fading Clingan, knowing he was going up against Zach Edey in the Title. If you look at the odds right now, Newton is down to +500. If you happened to miss that future, I would strongly suggest taking it now, as there’s still a ton of value. This is absolutely mispriced, and with how even the performances were in game one, Newton is the most likely guy to have a big game tonight and win the award.
Best Bet For Tonight’s Game:
I posted this play on twitter already and gave it out in my breakdown video at the end. If you want to go check out my full game breakdown and see specifically why I like this pick, check out our channel on YouTube: @slobberknockersports
But the play I like is Purdue Team Total Under 70.5. Full disclosure when I gave that play out yesterday, the number was already trending down. It’s now 69.5 at most spots and I even saw some 68.5. Look I would take it as low as 68.5. I could even make a case at 67.5 but obviously try to get the best number. 69.5 or larger is a phenomenal bet. 68.5 is still solid. This number is way off with what we’ve seen from UConn’s defense in this tournament. They just held Bama, one of the fastest, highest scoring teams in the nation, to just 72 two nights ago. And most importantly of all is this pace is going to be very slow. Purdue is going to pound it inside to Edey, and UConn is going to play him straight up with Clingan. The game is going to very likely be played in the 63-68 possession range. Purdue would have to be extremely efficient against an amazing defense to get to this number. I see this lower scoring and I would be surprised if this is even close. Take Purdue Team Total UNDER 70.5 Play to 68.5.
Official Pick: PURDUE TEAM TOTAL UNDER 70.5
UNITS: 2
Best Bets For Final Four Games & Tournament Futures, Saturday (4/6/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 5, 2024 | 11:45 P.M. CST
Best Bet #1: NC State Team Total UNDER 68.5 (-110)
I think this is the best option for a bet on a team in either game in the two semi-finals games. Purdue has held opponents under this number in all 4 tournament games, and that includes games against two top 25 offenses in Tennessee (25th) and Gonzaga (5th). NC State has gone over the total 3 times in the tournament, however one game they did NOT go over in regulation; it took overtime against Oakland to get there. Additionally if you average out the two teams possessions so far in the tournament, this game is likely going to be played in the 65 range. If that holds true NC State would have to score over 1 point per possession to go over that total. With the matchup of Edey guarding DJ Burns (who is NC State’s highest usage player and most important offensive player) I don’t see NC State having a lot of success offensively over the course of a 40 minute game. I also like that Purdue is top 10 in the country in both ORB% and DRB% while NC State is outside the top 180 in both. That means more and longer possessions for Purdue and less time for NC State to score have possessions. NC State is also outside the top 180 in getting to the FT line and Purdue is top 10 in the country in sending opposing teams to the FT Line. So I don’t see NC State getting to this number. If you want a full breakdown check out our YouTube Channel: @slobberknockersports
Best Bet #2: Grant Nelson Over .5 three point field goals made (-171)
Overall I just like this one based on the matchup. I listened to Nate Oats’ press conference today and he talked about how Illinois was 0/19 at the rim against Donavan Clingan. He said that they definitely want to get rim shots but he also isn’t going to force against a shot blocker if he’s sitting at the rim. He discussed having to find ways to draw Clingan away from the basket to be able to get some three point shots. With that in mind, and considering that Bama already relies heavily on threes, I think Grant Nelson is our best bet to go above expectation from downtown in this game. He’s the only big man on Alabama who can really stretch Clingan away from the basket. If Pringle isn’t able to guard Clingan 1v1 it’s very unlikely Pringle is going to play significant minutes in this game. Nelson, on the other hand, I can see taking 4-5 threes in this game because of the matchup and because I think he’s going to play a TON of minutes as long as he doesn’t get in foul trouble. Even with the heavy juice, I like Nelson to go over 1 three here. Take him over half a three and lay the -171
Best Bet #3: Tristen Newton to win Most Outstanding Player +550
This number is just completely mispriced. Tristen Newton leads UCONN in scoring and assists, averaging over 15 and 6.5 per game. He’s also 2nd on the team in both rebounds and steals, and he’s had 3 triple doubles this season. 70% of Most Outstanding Player winners have been the leading scorer on their team throughout the season over the past 20 years. That includes last year’s UCONN team with Adama Sanogo. Guards traditionally dominate this tournament as well. The only true bigs to win the award in the past 15 years are Anthony Davis (Kentucky 2012) and last year Sanogo (UCONN 2023). Besides that it’s been all guards or wings. The two bigs for each top team (Edey and Clingan) are the two odds on favorites. UConn is going to be a 5 point favorite in that tile game AT LEAST. Probably closes closer to 6 or 6.5. If you believe UConn will win it’s going to be Clingan or Newton. Not only does Newton dominate statistically, but he also is going to play 38 minutes per game whereas Clingan will play 28-30. I’ll take that value ALL DAY
I wanted to get these things posted tonight before the end of the day so they will be up for a full day so I didn’t go in depth. Video breakdowns will be posted on YouTube by the end of the night tonight.
Women’s College Basketball Final Four Best Bet (4/5/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 5, 2024 | 7:47 P.M. CST
Best Bet: Iowa vs. UConn 1H UNDER 79
2 Units
UConn plays at an extremely slow pace compared to Iowa. I believe Geno (HC UConn) is going to really try to slow the game down, and where he tends to have success with gameplans is early on in games.
Iowa has had games this year where teams have tried to slow it down and had success and those teams have all been significantly worse than UConn defensively. The most notable was in the 2nd round against West Virginia, a game that didn’t sniff the total posted for this game
I do believe Iowa is going to find a way to win this game, and I think over the course of 40 minutes the Hawkeyes will be able to outscore UConn, who can go through offensive droughts at times. However, it’s not going to be a blowout either way, and a competitive game early only happens if this is a lower scoring game
Overall this game is likely not going to go over that total in the 160s, however, I don’t want to have to deal with fouls late in the game if it’s slightly over the total I expect. I also think you have two teams who will show some nerves early on and I believe it’s going to be a lower scoring first quarter.
Official Pick: Iowa/UCONN 1st Half UNDER 79 Points (-110)
NBA Best Bet (Wednesday, 4/3/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 3, 2024 | 7:01 P.M. CST
I haven’t done much NBA this year, but with college basketball coming to a close, we’re going to look to exploit some different markets over the next couple months until football season starts back up again. I have traditionally had success in the NBA playoffs and late in the season being SELECTIVE. Playing a ton of NBA games and sides can get dicey, and it’s difficult to navigate some of the regular season with the lack of motivation for teams some nights. However, at this point we know who’s tanking, who’s competing, and which teams have internal issues. Thus, this is usually the time I start really looking into NBA games. Anyways, here is is my best bet for tonight’s NBA games. Sorry for the late post, but I’m looking towards the late game.
Best Bet: Phoenix Suns Team Total OVER 115.5 (-110)
2 Units
This is a huge game for the Suns in the grand scheme of their season, as they are in a three way tie (in the loss column) for the final actual playoff spot, meaning avoiding the play-in spot. Obviously having to play to get into the playoffs in a one-off game is something you want to avoid. Thus, this is a definite focus spot for the Suns. We also have an advantage here in the matchups tonight, as Isaac Okoro, the best perimeter defender for the Cavs has been battling an injury recently and will NOT suit up tonight. That’s a big loss for the Cavs. Through the first few months of the season, Cleveland was the best defense in the NBA, however they have fallen off a cliff recently. Part of it has to do with injuries, but also some negative regression. If you look at their last 5 games especially, teams have been absolutely TORCHING this defense from beyond the arc. The past 5 opponents have had 16, 21, 16, 13, and 15 made threes. Additionally all 5 teams have shot 40% or better (rounded up) from three, including a 64% night from the Nuggets, a game they nailed 21 triples. The Suns are going to have a big game from three. Greyson Allen is not going to suit up, but Royce O’Neal is a formidable replacement. And, with KD and Booker they won’t feel the loss of Allen much in this game.
We’ve seen some sharp money on the full game total here. And I don’t disagree with it, but with Donovan Mitchell playing with a broken nose (having to wear a mask), plus the loss of Okoro, and this Cavs team coming off a game last night, I’m worried the Cavs may not score enough to push this game over 226.5. I think it probably goes over, but I think the safer bet is looking at the Suns TT over. So that’s where we are going for tonight’s best bet. Best of luck and check back tomorrow. I will try to get my picks out by 5 P.M. from now on.
OFFICIAL BEST BET: Phoenix Suns Team Total OVER 115.5 (-110)
Elite 8 Best Bets (3/30/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 30, 2024 | 11:10 A.M. CST
Below are my best bets for the Elite 8 matchups!!
Elite 8 Best Bets:
Alabama -3 vs. Clemson (2 Units)
Purdue -3.5 vs. Tennessee (2 Units)
NC State ML (+255) vs. Duke (1 Unit)
Sweet 16 Best Bets (3/28/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 28, 2024 | 5:11 P.M. CST
Best Bets for Two Days of Sweet 16 Action (All 2 Units)
1) UNC -4 vs. Bama
2) Houston -3.5 vs. Duke
3) Purdue -4.5 vs. Gonzaga
NCAA Tournament Best Bets Round of 64 (3/21/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 21, 2024 | 1:51 P.M. CST
2 Top Bets of the NCAA Tournament Round 1 (2 Units Each)
Best Bet #1: 11 New Mexico Lobos -125 vs. 6 Clemson
In this century in the NCAA tournament (Since 2000), when an 11 seed is FAVORED over a 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament the 11 seeds have won outright 11 out of 15 times and they are 11-4 Against the Spread in those games. That’s a nice trend to back this pick, but it’s in no way why I like the Lobos here. I LOVE the Lobos in this game for a number of reasons, including the makeup of the team, the improvement of Richard Patino as a coach, and their performance down the stretch in the MW tourney.
Let’s start with the makeup of this team. We know that in this time of year you do not want to be a team that relies heavily on big men. Think about Purdue last year, relying so heavily on Zach Edey, only to get bounced in Round 1. Or Arizona, who’s top 2 highest usage players were 7 footers, only to get upset by 15 seed Princeton. It’s just difficult this time of year, in a tournament setting, in a day and age when threes and efficient scoring are important, for teams to heavily rely on post ups and slow big men. GUARDS DOMINATE MARCH. And New Mexico has 3 of the best guards in the country; in fact, they may have THE BEST trio of guards in the country in Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn Jr, and Donovan Dent. This set of Lobo guards combine to average 45 points this season, with each of them averaging 14+ PPG. They are lead by Jaelen House (north of 17 per game) who has been phenomenal as of late. In the MW Championship House went for 28, while Mashburn went for 21. The thing that makes this trio so scary is the fact that on any given night ANY one of these guys can give you 25+ and we’ve seen it throughout the season. In that MW Championship game, Dent went out with flu like symptoms early in the game. He ended up playing just 13 minutes, and did not score. Most teams losing a 15 PPG scorer mid game would be significantly hindered. It did not matter to the Lobos, as House and Mashburn combined for just shy of SIXTY, as they went on to take down the MW Conference Tourney Title.
All of that and I didn’t even mention Jacob Toppin, the freshman of the year in the MW conference. This kid has legitimately gotten better every single game he’s played. He’s going to be an absolute force in this conference over the next few seasons, and I actually believe he has a shot to be a pro at some point. He has elite athleticism, he’s an incredible shot blocker and he has great putback ability on the offensive glass. Combine him with NM’s other big man and they are really hard to score on at the rim. The Lobos led the MW in blocked shots. They are a deceptively good defensive team, largely due to the aggressiveness of the guards forcing TO’s and the combination of the big men down low blocking shots (Top 25 in Defensive efficiency according to KenPom).
Then we look at Clemson’s side, and they are the exact mold of a team I hate playing on in the tourney. They rely heavily on back to the basket post ups and their leading scorer is their big man. This doesn’t mean that Clemson can’t win this game; this is the NCAA tournament where weird things happen, and it’s a one-game sample size. However, in the long run, you are going to be much more profitable when betting close to pick ‘em games, backing the team with better guards, better scorers, and more offense. And that’s exactly what NM has. Clemson has also been reeling down the stretch. They lost in their first game of the ACC tournament to non-NCAA tourney team Boston College by 21. It would be one thing if Clemson was playing good basketball at the end of the year, and just had one bad outing against a BC team that got hot, but that’s not the case. Instead, they lost 2 of their last 3 regular season games (3 of their last 4 overall, including the BC loss). Their last loss of the season came against a Wake Forest team that was on a 3-game losing streak going into that game. They also lost at Notre Dame by 7 as a 7.5 point favorite; and that was a Notre Dame team that finished the season 3rd to last in the ACC.
Early in the year, this Clemson team was on a role, starting off 11-1 overall, with their only loss coming by 2 points at Memphis, who at the time was ranked in the top 25 in the country. Since January 1st however, the Tigers are a .500 basketball team. They are the 49th best team in the country according to Torvik. Again, it would be one thing if you looked at this team and they were up and down all year. But that wasn’t the case. They have been playing poorly for a long time now, and it just doesn’t feel like they have some ability to turn it on in the tournament. Not to mention, I think they are the significantly LESS talented group here. New Mexico CLEARLY has the best two guards on the floor, and they might even have the best 3. Clemson has the best big, in Hall, but as I mentioned before, I’ll take guards over bigs in the tourney 7 days a week, and twice on Sunday. Or in our case, once on Friday.
On the other side, New Mexico is coming off their hottest stretch of the season, as they ran through the MW Tourney, winning 4 straight, and covering all 4 games. They were an underdog in two of the games, and they beat 3 tournament teams in that stretch as well. But what was even more impressive was their mental toughness. They have definitely had their lows this season, but they never faltered in this run, despite the fact that they KNEW that they probably were on the outside looking in if they didn’t win the whole tourney. After leading the MW Title game the whole way against SDSU, they blew a double digit lead and actually trailed by 4 late in the ball game. However, they did not panic, and a couple of BIG putbacks from Toppin got them back squared. They came up with some massive stops late, and House put on his superman cape to take over scoring duties in the final 4 minutes, with Toppin operating as Robin to House’s Batman. I’ll also add a little state I loved that I heard from someone earlier this week: New Mexico is 8-0 ATS on a neutral floor this year. This makes me feel even better, considering they are an altitude team.
Overall, I love the Lobos here as the higher seeded favorite. Richard Patino showed me a lot in the MW tourney, being able to prep for teams despite having basically zero practice time and less than a day to prepare. Yes, he now has to face a much less familiar opponent, but he’s also got a full 4 days to prep for this Clemson team. I believe he will come up with a really good plan to attack Clemson’s suspect perimeter defense, and I believe he will develop a good plan to attempt to take Hall’s post ups away. But EVEN if he doesn’t come up with the perfect gameplan, he’s shown to be a great in-game adjuster as well as of late. So I trust Pitino to get it done in this spot. The Lobos have been basically playing NCAA tourney games for the past week, so what’s one more here against a very beatable team who’s been trending down for three months? GIVE ME THE LOBOS. I think they win this one, and I actually think they beat Baylor in round 2. Lobos to the Sweet 16. But all we need is to get them to the round of 32. Try to find a cheap Moneyline (-130 or better) anything more than -130 and go ahead and lay the 2.
OFFICIAL BEST BET #1: New Mexico Lobos -130 (ML) or -2 (-110)
Best Bet #2: 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders -4.5 vs. 11 NC State Wolfpack
We’re going to keep both our best bets for the 1st Round in the 6/11 matchups, and this one is the battle of the red squads. The reincarnation of the Cardiac kids against the Pistols of the Red Raiders. And we’re definitely rolling with the GUNS UP in this one. This is clearly a buy low, sell high spot on these teams. Not that Texas Tech is at a big time low spot, but they are coming off a really bad loss in the Big 12 tournament at the hands of the Houston Cougars. But to be fair to Tech, a lot of teams have got smacked by Houston that exact same way this season. Luckily for the Red Raiders this matchup is much more favorable. They face an NC State team that had to win 5 games in 5 nights in order to even get into the NCAA Tournament. Going into the ACC Tourney, the Wolfpack were just 17-14 overall, with a losing record in the conference (9-11). They were the #10 seed in their conference tournament, and going into the tourney they knew that a loss in any round would mean that they were either headed to the NIT or they were done for the year. Instead, they rattled off 5-consecutive wins to get into the tourney. Now they sit facing the fourth place team from the best conference in the country, and yet we’ve seen the public lean towards the Wolfpack.
Let’s take a look at NC State’s run to the ACC Tournament Title first. The first two games the Wolfpack beat two non-tournament teams in Louisville and Syracuse. The Louisville win you can throw out the window (they’re 8-24), and the Syracuse win isn’t bad. But when you look at the two teams, NC State’s talent level is significantly higher than the Orange. Then comes the quarter-finals where the Wolfpack knocked off the Duke Blue Devils by 5. And while, yes, that looks like a great win on the surface, I’m just not sold on Duke this season. I’ve been down on the ACC as a whole, but especially Duke due to their inability to defend and their significant lack of toughness. NC State was able to exploit that and almost BULLY Duke at times in that game. The last thing you are going to do to Pop Issac and Joe Toussaint is bully them. Then we look at the semi-final game where NC State took on Virginia. With under a minute and a half to play, NC State trailed by 5 when DJ Burns committed an intentional foul. Virginia was shooting 2 free throws, up by 5, with under 1:30 to go in the game. Right there NC State’s season should’ve been over. Instead, Reece Beekman went to the FT line and missed BOTH. Still UVA had the ball up 5 and was able to run the clock down to close to 1:00 before getting fouled again. This time Beekman split a pair to put UVA up 6. On the ensuing possession Ryan Dunn of UVA fouled an NC State shooter on a three, giving NC State a free three points. After a couple back and forths NC State could not knock down a three to tie it, and they were forced to foul with just 6 seconds left. They also fouled the best free throw shooter on the team in Isaac McKneely (88% on the season). Because it was only the 9th team foul, McKneely shot a 1-and-1 and improbably missed the front end, allowing NC State one last chance to tie it. Inexplicably Tony Bennett decided NOT to foul in this situation which probably would’ve ended the game right there. Instead, NC State got up a three at the buzzer. Now, in Bennett’s defense, this shot goes in 1 out of 1,000 times. But still, if you foul there you win 1,000 out of 1,000 times. Somehow, someway Michael O’Connell willed the ball in the basket, calling glass while doing it. The ball not only hit the window, but spun around the rim about 5 times before finally falling in, sending the game to overtime. NC State went on to win in overtime, and went on to upset top seeded North Carolina in the ACC championship (another overrated ACC team), securing their bid to the tournament.
All of that above said, we have an NC State team that went into the ACC tourney just three games above .500. They absolutely do not deserve to be in the NCAA tournament based on how they beat Virginia, and they were not a deserving team in the entire regular season either. So we have a recency bias influencing this line. Secondly, we have a team who had to play 5 games in 5 days in order to just get here. Not only that, but their best player, who is listed at 270 lbs, is likely about 320 lbs. So the wear and tear on his legs in that run was brutal. Meanwhile, although Tech got smashed by Houston, they played only 2 games in their conference tourney, and both were blowouts. So they are going to come into this game much more rested than the Wolfpack. Tech is going to try to speed this game up. They want to play up-tempo, push the pace, and shoot a ton of threes. Tech does have a few injuries to their squad, but these are not new. They’ve been dealing with them for 3+ weeks now, and at this point they’ve been able to figure out how to play with this new lineup.
Overall, this number is just short. Tech on a neutral a week ago would be laying 6.5, maybe even 7, so we’re grabbing some value in this number at 5. If Tech was 100% healthy I think they win this game by 15. With the injuries, I think it’s closer to a 9-10 point win, but I still really like the Red Raiders in this spot. I also think there’s a distinct coaching advantage for Texas Tech which does tend to matter in these type of games early in the tournament. NC State is one of the worst teams in the country defending the three point line (allowing nearly 35% of 3s to be made). Meanwhile that’s all Tech wants to do. So the only way I believe NC State has success defensively is through scheme and gameplanning; however, I don’t believe that this staff is good enough to come up with an effective gameplan. Therefore, give me the Texas Tech Red Raiders here, even though their fans throw bottles at players. And even though they are absolute psychos on Twitter, I’ll be pulling for Tech in round 1. Guns Up
OFFICIAL PICK: Texas Tech -4.5 (-110)
Best Bet #3: Keisei Tominaga (Nebraska) OVER 14.5 Points (-115)
1 UNIT
College Basketball Best Bet (3/13/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 13, 2024 | 3:54 P.M. CST
One best bet for tonight’s conference tournaments
Best Bet: Cincinnati -2.5 vs. Kansas
Brief Summary: Cincinnati is not going to knock anyone’s socks off from a talent standpoint. However, they are a gritty team. They trailed yesterday by double digits in the second half to West Virginia and found a way to pull out a win late in the game. They now face Kansas. Kansas comes into this game on probably their worst stretch of basketball in the past decade. Looking at them a month ago this would be shocking, but it really isn’t. Why? Because they have lacked depth all year. So, when injuries occur, it is going to hurt Kansas more than any other team. They will be without two starters going into this matchup. It’s not just two starters though, it’s their two leading scorers in Kevin McCullers and Hunter Dickinson. Without those two guys I really don’t know what this team is. And I think that is why this game is mispriced. Likely Vegas has points associated with these players, so take them away and we arrive at 2.5. But that doesn’t take into account their presence on the court. Not having those two guys makes Kansas incredibly fragile here. They are likely going to be playing some guys who have not played the entire season. Not to mention, the guys off the bench who have played this year are horrible.
It really feels like Bill Self realizes that health is the most important thing right now. If KU isn’t 100% healthy going into the NCAA tournament their odds of getting out of the first weekend is almost 0. Therefore, it feels like the Jayhawks are punting on the conference tournament in an attempt to have one last run in the Big Dance (which is obviously much more important). Beyond that, i question how much Kansas really wants to win this game? Do they really want to risk more injuries the way their season has gone? Playing more games means more wear and tear on Harris (KU’s PG) and he’s battled an ankle injury lately as well. On the other hand Cinci is playing for their lives. They basically have to win the conference tournament to get in the Big Dance. So we are going to get a focused, locked in group in the Bearcats tonight. I’ll happily lay the 2.5 with the healthier, more motivated team. I would play it up to -3
Official Pick: Cincinnati -2.5
College Basketball Conference Tourney Long Shots
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 12, 2024 | 2:45 A.M. CST
Conference Title Longshot Picks:
Baylor to win the Big 12 @ +800
Florida to win the SEC @ +2000
I think these two just have value based on their brackets. You actually can parlay the two together for 180 to 1 odds. I put a very small amount on each of these long shots.
College Basketball Conference Tournament Best Bet
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 12, 2024 | 1:55 A.M. CST
This is the lone Conference Championship Bet that I myself will be betting a full unit. Therefore I wanted to give a summary of the pick.
UCONN to win Big East Tournament @ -135
When you look at all of the other major conferences, every single favorite is over priced. Houston is the favorite in the Big 12 at -135. When we really break it down, that number is absurdly high to lay. Houston is definitely the best team in that conference, & I doubt anyone would debate otherwise. However, the conference as a whole is just too deep for ANY team to be laying any juice. Winning three games for any team in this tournament is going to be extremely difficult. Two of the last three years (which is when this conference really emerged as the BEST in the country), the #1 seed did not win the tourney. I also just believe that the way Houston plays is good for a long season, but it’s not been a recipe for success in one-and-done elimination games. Can Houston win the Big 12 Conference Tourney? Yes, absolutely. But laying -135 is absurd. I give Houston a 38% chance to win it, so obviously not laying -135.
The Pac-12 Tourney has Arizona as a -160 favorite, which might be even crazier. Yes, the Pac-12 is by far weaker than any other power conference. However, the Wildcats are probably the most inconsistent top 10 team in the country. They have losses to Utah, Oregon State, and USC (none of which are tourney teams). In fact the only other at-large tournament team in the conference is Washington State, & the Cats got swept by the by the Cougars in the regular season.
We look at Purdue in the Big 10, currently at Even money. Purdue isn’t a horrible pick, largely due to their dominance this season as well as the Big 10 being down. However, their path is pretty tough. Their first game is likely to be Michigan State. Not only will the Spartans be desperate for a signature win to secure their tourney ticket, but they also matchup decently well with the Boilermakers. The second game for Purdue has a good chance of being Northwestern. In the two regular season meetings, Northwestern beat Purdue and took them to overtime in Mackey Arena (Purdue’s home gym). They are probably the team the Boilermakers match up the worst with, not to mention they have the best guard in the conference in Boo Bouie. And then in the final, if they get there, they would have to face Illinois for a third time. Not only is that a HUGE rivalry game, but Purdue beat the Illini in both meetings in the regular season. Illinois will be extremely fired up if they get one last shot at the Boilermakers.
In the ACC we have North Carolina as the favorite in the ACC at +135. Honestly, I just don’t trust the Tar Heels. I also don’t like that there is a good chance North Carolina plays Duke in the ACC Title. Although the Tarheels are a better team, playing their rival for a third team after beating them twice is going to be tough. Lastly, the SEC has Tennessee favored at +130.
In the SEC, Tennessee is a really good team. However, they are too offensively challenged at times to take to win three straight games in a tournament setting. They also play a style in which they foul on every possession, and that leaves them at the mercy of the officials on any given night. If they catch the officials on a night where the game is called tight, they can get into trouble really quick. But past all of that, the SEC is just too deep. I think the SEC borders the Big 12 in how tough it’s going to be to actually win this tournament, so only getting +130 isn’t good enough for me to believe in the Vols.
And, that leaves UCONN. The Big East regular season champs are -135 (Bovada) to win the Big East Tournament at MSG. The Huskies have a lot going for them going into this tournament. First, this team is the best team in the country, and I really do not think it’s close. I’ve been a believer that UCONN is way above everyone else all season, and they seem to be getting better every game they play. Additionally, I do NOT think the Big East is nearly as good as the Net and KenPom seem to think. And, when we look at UCONN’s potential path to the Title here, it’s extremely favorable. Game one is going to be the winner of Xavier and Butler. According to KenPom, the Huskies would be around a 17-18 point favorite against either team in that game. Their second game would be against the winner of St. John’s and Seton Hall. At this moment, UCONN would be roughly a 13 point favorite against St. John’s and a 15 point favorite against Seton Hall. I believe UCONN will win both of those games by 15+ and have a decent chance of covering the spread. So winning those games I doubt will be much of an issue.
That leaves ONE game. It could end up being Marquette, however Marquette is currently without star PG Tyler Kolek, and they’ve been a different team without him. UCONN went into Wisconsin and beat the Eagles by double digits a week ago. The more likely opponent would be Creighton in the finals. Against Creighton, KenPom would currently make UCONN a 7.5 point favorite. Thus, assuming UCONN does not get upset as 15+ point favorites, we would go into the championship game with a -135 ticket in a game that UCONN will likely be somewhere around -270. The value there alone makes this appealing. But then, we add in the spot factor. First, UCONN did not win the Big East Tournament last year. In fact they didn’t win the regular season nor did they win the Big East Tournament. Dan Hurley has openly stated that not winning either was something that really bothered them. They are going to be extremely focused and locked in to get that sweep of the Regular Season Title and Conference Tourney Title in route to trying to win a second straight National Title. Second, if the Huskies do get the BlueJays in the final, it’s going to be a spot where UCONN has revenge. Creighton handed UCONN it’s worst loss of the season (at full strength) a few weeks ago when the Huskies traveled to Omaha. So you can bet Dan Hurley and his squad are going to be motivated to hand Creighton a big time loss and win a Championship in the process.
Overall this is too much value to pass up. I’ve seen some spots dealing -150 and -160. I believe the true odds to be -210. So I will happily lay -135.
OFFICIAL PICK: UCONN To Win Big East Tournament -135
College Basketball 2023-2024 Season Summary
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 10, 2024 | 5:02 A.M. CST
The regular season in college basketball is coming to a close. A number of conferences finished regular season play today, with a few more finishing up over the next few days. A number of conferences have already began their tournaments, and we’ve even had a ticket punched to the big dance with the Morehead Eagles out of the OVC. As the season finishes up, I will still be posting plays, but I wanted to give a quick summary of where I am for the year. All these plays are posted in this blog and time stamped so feel free to go back and look at previous articles and postings. Last year was my best year ever in college basketball as a handicapper, finishing over 70% in conference play. However, I was more selective last season, and as the sample size increases it’s obviously impossible to maintain that percentage over a multiple year sample. The good thing is, we still had a GREAT year this season. Thanks for all those who followed my picks for the season. Hopefully we will have an awesome couple of weeks in conference tourneys and the NCAA Tourney. However, I do want to caution people, that as we get into these tournaments it can be much more difficult to predict. It’s possible that last year was an anomaly, but I did not have a good tournament. After an INCREDIBLE college basketball REGULAR season, I had a really brutal stretch in March. I just wanted to say that because it can be really easy to see all those great games on the board and feel like you have to play every one. AND it’s easy to bet MORE than you normally do on the tournament. Only place a bet on these games if you feel you have an edge. And stick to the same wager amounts that you’ve played all season. I have had runs in March that have been super profitable, and I’ve had runs in March that have resulted in losses (and last year significant losses). They call it March Madness for a reason. You get into these one off games with teams who are not familiar with each other and there can be quite a bit of variance. Don’t let a couple of weeks determine the profit of your season. This should be bonus time, rather than the biggest time of the year to bet. Enough of me ranting about those things though, my record is listed below!!
Overall Season Record: 68-45-1 (60.2%)
3 Unit Plays (Highest Rated Plays): 4-0 (+12.0 Units)
2 Unit Plays: 42-27 (+24.6 Units)
1 Unit Plays: 22-26 (-6.6 Units)
Overall Unit Profit = +30.0 Units
A $50 bettor would be +$1,500
A $100 bettor would be +$3,000
A $500 bettor would be +$15,000
A $1,000 bettor would be + $30,000
Quick Breakdown: The one thing I’ve struggled with in the past that I’ve worked on quite a bit is understanding how to rate my plays. It is very interesting to see how the percentage of the rated plays worked out. Obviously I would love to have the 1-unit plays be positive as well, but it’s really nice to see that as the strength of the play increases, the percentage significantly increases. Ideally, the stronger the play the more likely it is to win, and that has been the case this season.
Once again, thanks for everyone who followed along and checked the page. As we close the book on another phenomenal college hoops season, we will now move into the MADNESS of March and if nothing else, it should be very entertaining!!
College Basketball Best Bets (3/9/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 9, 2024 | 1:08 P.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) Kansas State +4 vs. Iowa State
2) Marquette -3 @ Xavier
3) Kentucky Team Total OVER 79
4) ML Favorite Parlay: Florida ML + Indiana State ML + Houston ML
College Basketball A-Sun Tourney Pick (3/7/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 7, 2024 | 5:53 P.M. CST
Pick: North Alabama to Win Conference Tourney at +550
Summary: This is a case of mispriced odds in my opinion. We are currently sitting in the semi-finals of the A-Sun tourney (4 teams left), with the semi-finals being played tonight, and yet North Alabama is still at +550 to win the tournament. The A-Sun tourney has been absolutely wacky so far with 2 of the top 3 seeds going down before the semi-finals. #6 Seed North Alabama beat Lipscomb at the buzzer last night, who was the #3 seed in the tournament, although I think Libscomb was the best and most dangerous team in that tournament. Then we had #10 seed Jacksonville pull off the stunning upset of #1 Eastern Kentucky. So in one foul swoop, we have the #1 and #3 seeds gone. This leaves the #2, #4, #6, and #10 seeds battling for a trip to the Big Dance (where they will almost certainly be in a 16-seed First Four Game).
Regardless, when you look at this price, you have to ask yourself, okay what does this team have to do? They have to win two games. In order to cash the ticket, you’d have to have them pull off an upset tonight over #4 Seed Austin Peay tonight as 3.5 point dogs. Then win in the championship game over the winner of Stetson and Jacksonville. Well, first let’s look at tonight’s matchup. Austin Peay barely survived last night, needing overtime to take down #5 seed North Florida. It’s also important to note that Austin Peay is a team that really lacks depth, and they had 3 starters play 43+ minutes last night. Now they have to comeback and play the next night against a team who just upset the hottest team in the conference. So we’ve seen this number come down a touch already.
Now let’s say North Alabama pulls off a win tonight as a short dog. Who would they face in the finals? Well they could face #2 Stetson, in which case they would likely be a short underdog of about 4 points. However, they beat Stetson by 7 in their lone meeting this year, a game that North Alabama actually closed as a 2.5 point favorite. So if you win the game tonight, that’s WORST case. Now you are holding a +550 ticket, in a game where the odds are going to be somewhere close to +140 or +150. On the other hand, if Jacksonville upsets Stetson, now you have that same +550 ticket as a favorite, likely of around 3-4 points. All of the sudden you not only have a +550 ticket, but you also have an opportunity to hedge back for your initial investment (play Jacksonville at +135) and you are basically going to either make .35 units or make 4.5 units. That’s best case scenario. But essentially you either would have a super valuable ticket, or an arbitrage opportunity. It’s also not out of the realm of possibility that Jacksonville wins tonight. Although Stetson should pull it out, Jacksonville just upset the #1 seed Eastern Kentucky. They also are only a 6 point dog tonight in that game, so it isn’t as if the game is expected to be a complete blowout.
So my suggestion here is to play North Alabama +550. Play it for just one unit. There’s just too much value here at +550 in a conference with just 4 teams left to play, all of which are separated by 6 points or less from a point spread perspective.
Take NORTH ALABAMA +550 to win the A-Sun Tournament
College Basketball Best Bet (3/6/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 6, 2024 | 5:03 P.M. CST
Game: Iowa State vs. BYU
Line: Iowa State -7.5 | Iowa State -4 (1H) | Iowa State ML -300 | Iowa State -210
Summary:
I’ll just give my take on this game, because I’m still working through how to play this. I think Iowa State is going to win this game without a doubt. BYU is 3-6 straight up at home in conference play. Two of those road wins in the conference on the road came against two of the worst teams in the Big 12 (5 point win at UCF, 13 point win at WVU). The other win was their most recent outing where they went to Kansas and won the game outright in Alan Fieldhouse. To me that win is a fluke. It was an impressive win, without a doubt. But the truth is, it’s an outlier to how they have performed all season. They lost at Oki State who is the worst team in this conference. The lost by double digits at Kansas State, who’s 10th in the conference. They lost at Baylor, Tech, and OU as well, and none of those games were that close. They also lost their only road non-conference game at Utah earlier this year, who is likely not a tournament team.
Then you look at that Kansas game and it’s really important to point out a few things. Number one, Kansas is one of the least deep teams in the country; in fact, they probably have THE LEAST depth of any team in the power conferences. They have absolutely nobody who can play off the bench. Why is that important? Well Kevin McCullers Jr, their leading scorer did not play in that game against BYU. That forced grad senior Nicolas Timberlake into the starting lineup, who has been horrible this season. You also had Dejuan Harris playing on a less than 100% ankle as well, after he injured it a few games prior against Baylor. He’s not been the same since that injury, but he’s been forced to play through it because of their lack of depth. When you take those things into account, it really makes that road win a lot less impressive. It’s still a good win, don’t get me wrong. Going to Alan Fieldhouse regardless of who trots out there for KU is tough on any night. But I think BYU is getting a ton of credit for winning that game and in reality it was a solid win, but not some incredible performance. You also look at the box score of that game. Hunter Dickinson went 6/15 from the FT line in that game, including a few BIG misses late, where he missed both in key moments in the final 5 minutes. He’s a 74% free throw shooter on the year when you remove that game. So that is worth noting as well, that a good free throw shooter, at home, really struggled. If he goes 12/15, it’s a different game. Even 10/15 it might’ve swung KU’s way. As a team Kansas missed 12 free throws in that game, and shot 61% from the charity stripe. Kansas isn’t elite at the line on the season, but they do shoot north of 73% overall. So again, the ball bounced BYU’s way pretty significantly in that game.
Then you look at Iowa State at home. They are 17-0 straight up. In conference play, they’ve beaten each of the other top 5 teams in the conference: Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, and Baylor. The Houston and Kansas games are really their only close home games they’ve played all season, and we know how good Houston is. Kansas faced ISU when the Jayhawks were playing much better and when they were 100% healthy. It doesn’t really require much more of a breakdown - Iowa State has one of the best home court advantages in all of college basketball.
Then you factor in the travel. BYU being in Utah, having to travel to Iowa is a long way from home. It’s farther than the majority of their conference games (Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas make up half the conference).
You then factor in the revenge aspect. This is the worst loss Iowa State suffered all year - BYU destroyed them in their earlier matchup this season. You have to believe the revenge aspect is on the side of the Cyclones here. I don’t think revenge is always the right way to look at a game. Sometimes a team just matches up well with you. I don’t see that as the case here.
One issue that I will bring up is that Iowa State defends the three-ball well in terms of percentages, but in terms of quantity & quality of shots they can give up 3s at times. BYU is a high volume, three-point shooting team. That might bother me here, but I think the issue is that the first time these teams played BYU made 13 threes and won by 17. So I just have to imagine there’s going to be a shift in the gameplan for this specific game from the Iowa State side of things. It would just absolutely shock me if BYU came out and made a ton of threes in this one. I am fairly certain Iowa State is going to make BYU beat them driving to the basket.
How to Play This:
I’m struggling with deciding how to play this game. I think Iowa State is going to win relatively easily. The issue is that the number has gotten away from us here at 7.5. It opened at an incorrect 5, before quickly correcting to 6.5. Since then, it’s been bet up a full point. There’s been significant professional support for the Cyclones. But I don’t quite know that I want to lay 7.5 points vs a team that is prolific scoring the ball. Even though ISU has tended to cover this number at home this season, with a few exceptions, and BYU has tended to lose by more than this number when they do lose. I just can’t bring myself to lay 7.5
So I’m deciding between a few things. The ML price is high to lay for sure, and I’m hesitant to lay -325. That said, in order to lay -325 you need to have a win percentage of over 75.6% to be able to be profitable. I make this an 82.8% chance that Iowa State wins this game at home. So mathematically it actually does make sense to lay this price. I’m just not inclined to lay that normally. Long story long I just don’t know how I want to play Iowa State but I like them a lot here. If there’s another favorite you like to win tonight you could parlay them ML and get it to under -200. If you think ISU will come out well, you could lay -4 in the first half or even lay -200 moneyline. Iowa State has led at halftime of every home game in conference play, and the least they’ve led by at halftime is 4. BYU has also started slow lately. They were really good in the first half early in the season. But they’ve trailed in 4 of their last 5 games at halftime, and all 4 of those games were by 4 or more. So that feels like the best value probably. I may lay -4 in the first half or ML in the first half, and if it wins great. If it loses I can come back live and take ISU at a good price in the second.
Play ISU somehow.
College Basketball Best Bets (3/6/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 6, 2024 | 12:47 A.M. CST
Best Bets are listed below - we’re going to post them now to get ahead of line moves.
1) Seton Hall -1 vs. Villanova (2U)
2) Texas A&M -1 vs. Mississippi State (2U)
3) Minnesota -5 vs. Indiana (2U)
4) South Carolina +5.5 vs. Tennessee (2U)
College Basketball Best Bets (3/5/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 5, 2024 | 5:21 P.M. CST
Best Bets for Tonight (1U each)
Best Bet #1: VCU Rams -5.5 vs. Duquesne Dukes
VCU has won 6 straight at home since dropping back-to-back home games back in early January. In fact, VCU as whole since that 0-2 start to conference play is 11-3 straight up, with those 3 losses coming on the road, and all against teams in the top 6 in the conference (Richmond - 1st, UMASS - 5th, St. Bony’s - 6th). Of those 6 home wins by the Rams, 4 have come by over 5.5 points (the margin tonight). They’re also 3-0 SU in their last 3 games following a loss. That is actually one of the main reasons I like them in this spot. The Rams have been good at home all season, and they’ve been really solid off a loss. They are not only playing this one at home, but this is also their final home game. Some teams that may not matter all that much, but I think for VCU it does. Two of VCU’s top players left Utah State with Barry Odom last season and came to VCU, so those are two guys who have been with their coach for the entirety of their career. VCU is also very senior heavy - 6 of their top 7 scorers are seniors, likely playing in their last home game. So I think we’re going to get a very focused, very motivated Rams team tonight. VCU also has some motivation for winning this game in terms of the A10 tournament. They are currently 11-5, sitting in 4th place in the A10. A win tonight would clinch them a top 4 seed in the A10 Tourney, which is very meaningful because it means you will have a double bye to start the tournament. They will still have a chance to clinch that 4th spot with a loss, but I’m certain clinching that top 4 seed is a priority tonight, to avoid needing a road win in their final game (even if it is vs. GW).
Looking at Duquesne, they’ve definitely had a good season for their standards. They are right in the middle of the pack in the A-10, sitting at 8-8 in conference play. They started off A-10 play miserably, but to their credit they went on a very nice winning streak right in the heart of conference play. They’ve been a little bit up and down lately, going 5-3 in their last 8 games. They key though, is that those last 3 losses have all come by double digits. Why that tends to happen is because Duquesne struggles to score the ball at times. They are just 174th in Offensive Efficiency on the season, and they can really go through spurts where they struggle to score. Even in their upset win against George Mason on the road last time out, they started off the game down 14-2. To their credit they found a way to bounce back and cut the lead to just 2 at halftime, before going on to win it outright by 8. However, that win is partially why I like VCU as well. The Dukes are on currently on a 2-game winning streak. Throughout conference play they’ve only had one instance where they won more than 2 games in a row; that spurt came nearly 2 months ago, when they won 3 straight conference games. However, two of those games came at home, and the lone road win in that span came against Rhode Island (12th out of 14 in the A10).
The last reason I like this game is probably the main reason I’m going with VCU. I already like the spot, but I don’t think the number has massive value. I made this 6.2, so we’re getting less than a point of value in this game. KenPom has a very similar number to mine as well. But, factoring in the spot gets me closer to 7. And then, you look at the matchup. As I mentioned above, Duquesne is one of the worst offensive teams in the conference, and they hang their hat on their defense. Unfortunately for the Dukes, that’s exactly what VCU does as well. The Rams are 119th in offensive efficiency while the Dukes are 174th. The Rams are 48th in defensive while the Dukes are 54th. So you have very similar style teams here, but the Dukes do the same things that the Rams do worse. Stylistically, when you get teams that are very similar, it can be very difficult for the inferior team to have success because they aren’t giving the better team anything different. VCU is also the far superior shooting team, knocking down over 36 of their threes (good for 61st in the country) compared to Duquesne’s very poor 33% (outside the top 250 in that category). Lastly, and probably importantly here, if VCU doesn’t blow out the Dukes, and this game comes down to FT shooting late, that is a HUGE edge to VCU. VCU is the 7th best Free Throw shooting team in the country at 79.3%. The Dukes? Just 70.3% (234th in the country). Expect the Dukes to leave a lot of points at the line, and if it’s a close game late, expect VCU to close out the Dukes and get the cover by knocking down some key Free Throws Late. Back the Rams in this spot, at home on Senior night.
OFFICIAL PICK: VCU -5.5
Best Bet #2: Florida Gators -1 vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
This pick is based mostly on the spot, and the teams current forms. Alabama is coming off a brutal loss at home to Tennessee. A few games ago the Crimson Tide looked like they were in full control of the SEC race, but they’ve now lost 2 of their last 3, and no longer control their own destiny in the SEC. Florida on the other hand is playing really good basketball as of late. There are a lot of people around the country who think this team is a sleeper to make a deep March Madness Run.
The first matchup between these two teams really should’ve gone Floridas way. They led late in that game and really outplayed Alabama for much of it as well. Now they’re getting Bama back at home off a loss. Florida has also not lost in SEC play at home all season. All 5 of their conference losses came on the road. I also hated what I saw from Alabama against Tennessee on Saturday. They took some really bad shots all night long. Sears pretty much dissapeared down the stretch for the Crimson Tide. But worst of all, they just got beat by a team who played harder. They didn’t rebound well at all. They didn’t defend late in that game. Tennessee didn’t shoot a great percentage, but they hit 12 threes against Bama. And absolutely mauled them on the offensive glass and on hustle plays late in that game to run away with it. Unless Alabama has a monster shooting night I think the Gators take care of business and knock off Alabama tonight.
Official Pick: Florida -2
Best Bet #3: Illinois -2 vs. Purdue
I went back and forth on making this an official play. I figured in the long run you have to take Illinois in this spot. It’s a monster game at home for them. Purdue has not played great as of late, despite the public perception of them being the best team in the country. They are just 1-5 against the spread against the top 5 teams in the Big 10 this season. They failed to cover at home in their last outing against a Michigan State team who struggles to score. Now they go on the road to Illinois, one of the toughest places in the country to play.
Illinois one home loss in the Big 10 came against Maryland (who sucks) but it came without Terrance Shannon Jr, who is a huge part of their team. With Shannon back, Illinois has been the second best offensive team in the country in that time. The problem has been their defense. And that’s the only thing keeping me off a BIG play tonight. They are outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. The reason I still like Illinois, is that it’s somewhat by design. They want to play fast and they want to make it a high scoring affair, which tends to dip their defensive numbers. At times, they can dig in and get defensive stops.
I just think spot wise, you have to take the Illini in this spot. This is their Super Bowl tonight, and Purdue has much less to play for from a motivation standpoint. I think it’s going to be a great game, but I’ll take the Illini SMALL in this one.
Official Pick: Illinois -2