College Basketball Best Bet (1/11/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 11, 2026 | 1:53 A.M. CST
Note: I will start posting my actual breakdowns on the site from now on for my customers. I have been just posting the picks, but analysis will now be added to every pick, even for free picks.
Best Bet: Iowa vs. Illinois
#16 Illinois (12-3) comes into this contest 3-1 in Big 10 play, riding a 4-game win streak. Although they are ranked #16 in the AP poll, they are actually a top-10 team in the KenPom rankings. The Fighting Illini are especially good offensively this season, ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency (KP). They’re top 40 in the nation in effective FG%, top 25 in 2FG%, and top 5 in FT%. Despite being a high potent offense, the Illini do not have a single scorer averaging more than 15.5 points per game; that’s because they have an extremely balanced attack, with 5 players averaging double figures through 15 games. They’re led by 6’6 freshman Keaton Wagler, who has scored double figures in 7 straight games, and averaged over 17 points per game during that stretch.
#19 Iowa comes into this conference battle with the exact same record as Illinois (12-3), but they are just 2-2 in Big 10 play, with an early road loss to Michigan State and a loss in their most recent outing on the road at Minnesota. Iowa is ranked exactly the same in KenPom as they are in the AP poll (19th), with a top-30 offense and a top-20 defense. Their offensive numbers aren’t quite as impressive as Illinois from an efficiency standpoint, but they are a phenomenal shooting team. The Hawkeyes come in top-10 in the entire country in effective FG%, 4th in the nation in 2FG%, and 38th in 3FG% at 37% from behind the arc. They are exceptional at executing in the half court, as they score at an extremely efficient rate, while playing at one of the slowest tempos in the country.
Spot:
The spot here clearly favors the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa comes into this matchup off a loss to Minnesota. They are just 2-2 in Big 10 play, while Illinois is coming off their 4th straight victory, already 3-1 in Big 10 play. Head coach Ben McCullom was the head coach at Drake last season. Not only did he bring a large portion of his players from Drake to Iowa, but he also lost back-to-back games only once last season. McCullom does an excellent job of preparing his teams and having them bounce back off a loss. Maybe as importantly, though, is the meaning of this game for Iowa. As mentioned before, the Hawkeyes come into this game just 2-2 in conference. Their next two games after Illinois are at #4 Purdue, followed by at top-25 Indiana. With two ranked road opponents following this matchup, this is a MUST WIN at home against Illinois. While the Illini are no slouch, the importance of this game will be stressed by this Hawkeye coaching staff. They MUST hold serve at home and get to 3-2 with that road trip on deck.
Matchup:
As mentioned above, the Illini have the advantage when you look at the offensive efficiency metrics. However, if you look closely, the Hawkeyes are actually the better shooting team by far. While Iowa is top 30 in the country in 3FG% (37.0%), the Illini are just 125th in the nation (34.8%). Despite being just a slightly above average shooting it from 3, Illinois 48% of the Illini field goal attempts are 3s. They are heavily reliant on the triple, despite not shooting it all that great. Moreover, Iowa is a top 30 defense when it comes to defending the 3-point line. Additionally, while both teams are solid at taking care of the ball (Illinois slightly better), Iowa also is excellent at forcing turnovers, while Illinois is one of the worst teams in the country in that regard. That means more possessions for the Hawkeyes, especially when you factor in the home/road split.
Home Court Advantage:
It can’t be stressed enough in these big conference games early in the season: HOME COURT MATTERS. We see these two teams in KenPom 10 ranks apart, yet the line is Iowa -1.5 in the game, because they factor in the spot and the location. It especially matters in this matchup. Why? Because, Iowa has 3 losses this season, and all 3 losses came on the road. They’re a perfect 9-0 at home this season, including 2-0 in conference games by an average margin of 16 points. On the other hand, the Illini have only played one true road game this season, and it came against Ohio State (an 88-80 win). Although they pulled that game out, it was tight the entire way, and the Buckeyes are not even a top-35 team in the country.
Additionally, Illinois has faced 4 top 20 teams (in KenPoms rankings) this season. In those 4 games, the Illini went just 1-3, with their lone win coming on a neutral floor against 20th ranked Tennessee (who probably won’t be top 20 much longer). The other 3 games against top 20 teams included neutral floor losses to UCONN and Alabama, as well as a home loss to Nebraska. Now the Fighting Illini will face a legitimate top 20 team for the 5th time this season, but for the first time this season they’ll be doing it on the road. Iowa isn’t the toughest place in the country to play, but when it’s packed they have a solid home court advantage.
Pick:
Because of all of the things listed above I believe this is a great spot for Iowa. So, we’re going to roll with the Hawkeyes. However, we’re actually going to look to the 1st half. Why? Well, first off Iowa is not the type of team to come from behind. They play at an extremely slow pace, and they wear you down for 40 minutes playing late into the shot clock over and over again. They aren’t built to come from behind, and it would be especially difficult against a very talented offensive team like Illinois. If Iowa is down at halftime, they are likely going to lose this game outright anyways. So, rather than have to sweat it out for 40 minutes, we’re going to back Iowa in the 1st half. We also will get a cheaper number here in the first half than in the game (moneyline). So let’s back Iowa MONEYLINE in the first half this morning.
Official Pick: Iowa 1H (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
