NFL Best Bets (Sunday, 1/11/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 11, 2026 | 9:08 A.M. CST
Best Bets:
2-Team 6 Point Teaser: Buffalo Bills to San Francisco 49ers
So we’re going to take a 2 team teaser in the NFL for our top play of the day. This is going to be a very highly rated play, because I think we’re getting a ton of value here. We saw the first two playoff games yesterday come down to the final drive. Both featured late comebacks, and both games finished as one score games. That’s no different than what we’ve seen this season. We’ve seen a ton of late game comebacks, fourth quarter lead changes, and one score games all year long. We’ve continued to see that in the first two games of the playoffs, and I believe it will continue today.
Let’s start with the Bills. They are a great teaser leg from a value standpoint, regardless of whether you think Buffalo is going to win this game. Josh Allen has started 13 games for the Bills in the playoffs. He’s 7-6 in the post-season, and of those 6 losses only 2 have come by more than one score. Those two losses that came by double digits came against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs & against Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Both those years, the team that beat the Bills by double digits in the post-season went on to reach the Super Bowl. No offense to Trevor Lawerence and the Jags, but this team is nowhere near as good as those teams. Allen has dominated anyone not named Burrow or Mahomes in the playoffs over the course of his career. He’s 7-1 straight up against all other starting QBs, with the lone loss coming in his first ever playoff start; a game the Bills lost by 3 in overtime. So, just from a purely historical standpoint, taking the Bills with Josh Allen and catching 7.5 in a playoff game is an easy sell. Then you look at this team throughout the course of the season. The Bills lost just two games all year by more than a touchdown, and those came back in weeks 5 & 10.
Then we take a look at the other side: Trevor Lawerence and the Jags. Jacksonville has not been to the playoffs since 2022. You have a starting QB with 2 career playoff starts, and 1 career playoff win. That lone win was against the LA Chargers, where Lawerence threw 4 interceptions in the first half. The Jags were lucky to even be in that game in the second half, let alone comeback and win it. In his two playoff starts Lawerence has 5 TDs, 5 picks, and completed 60% of his passes. Now, I concede that the Jags in the regular season looked as good as anyone the last 10 weeks. They went 5-3 against playoff teams in the regular season, so they are plenty battle tested. I just believe the playoffs are different. Sometimes sports betting is complex, other times it’s simple. This is one of the instances where it’s simple. Give me Josh Allen over Trevor Lawerence every day of the week in the playoffs. I believe the Bills will win this game outright, but getting them over the key number of 7 is just incredible value. I made Buffalo a 2.5 point favorite, and they are currently sitting a 1.5 point dog.
Second leg of the teaser we’re going to go to the San Francisco 49ers. Now, this one is not a traditional teaser leg, because we’re not going through 3 and 7 and getting the value, but I’m going to explain why I think it’s more than worth it to take the Niners +12 here. From a value standpoint, secondary key numbers matter way more in the playoffs than they do in the regular season. Getting through 10 in the regular season probably isn’t worth it, unless it’s a very low total game. But here it makes a ton of sense. First of all, I strongly disagree with the line move here. I know Ricky Pearsoll was ruled out, and Trent Williams is questionable. But all signs point towards Williams playing, and if he does this line move is skewing this line significantly. With Williams and Pearsoll in the lineup, I make these teams essentially equal on a neutral field. Yet, somehow we’re catching 6 points.
Then you look at the Eagles results this season. Philadelphia had just 3 wins by double digits this year. Those wins came against 3 of the worst teams in the league: the New York Giants, the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Washington Commanders. And, even the Commanders win didn’t cover the number they’d have to in this game if we teased this to +12 (Phili beat Washington 29-18). Moreover, the Eagles went 3-3 against playoff teams in the regular season. Those 3 wins came by 7, 3, and 1; and, the game they won by 7 ended in a blocked field goal returned for a TD. In reality, they should’ve lost that game to the Rams. But, even if they win it, the meaningless field goal return skewed the final score. In reality, they SQUEAKED by good teams all year. And that makes sense, considering they are a below average offensive team in every meaningful metric. It’s almost impossible to win by big numbers against quality teams with the style the Eagles play.
Then you look at San Francisco. Not only are we getting a team that was one win away from being the number one overall seed, but we’re getting them catching double digits against a bad offense (with the teaser). Brock Purdy and this Niners offense looked unstoppable the last 5 weeks before the Seahawks shut them down week 18. But, that game came without Trent Williams. I know this game is in Philadelphia, and the Eagles are the defending Super Bowl champs, but I see the Niners as an equal to Philadelphia. Thus, the value to get this through the key of 7 and through the secondary key of 10 is just too much value. I actually think the Bills and Niners are going to both win outright. So, it might be worth it to sprinkle a little bit of money on a moneyline parlay with those two dogs (probably pays north of 4.5 to 1). But, our best bet, and our 4-star play is going to be teasing the Bills and the Niners today.
Official Pick: 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (Bills +7.5 | 49ers +12)
Play Rating: 4-Star
