College Basketball Best Bets (Saturday, 1/31/26)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 31, 2026 | 8:49 A.M. CST

Best Bets:

Play of the Day: Arizona State +14.5 vs. Arizona:

Arizona State is just catching WAY too many points here. And that’s not even factoring in the fact that this is a rivalry game, and ASU tends to really get up to play Arizona. I made this number Arizona -10.8 on a neutral floor, which doesn’t come close to the 14.5 points before even factoring in home court advantage. ASU gets just over 3 points for home court, and we’re literally sitting at less than half this number. To be exact I made Arizona a 7.7 point favorite here. This was by far the biggest differential in my model vs the market on the board today. You add in that this is a rivalry game and it only makes that number seem even bigger.

Official Pick: Arizona State +14.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 4-Star

Total of the Day: UCONN @ Creighton OVER 67.5 points

I made this one of my top totals of the day in terms of the game total. I project about 149 points in the game, with the total sitting at 141.5. We’re getting an even better number in the first half though, only having to go over 67.5 points. That’s on pace to be just at 135 points. That’s way too low for these two teams. Both teams are top 60 in the country (top 15%) in effective field goal percentage offense. We’re looking at two of the most efficient offenses in the Big East. They key here is location. UCONN’s offense tends to travel. Creighton’s offense is the one that sometimes struggles on the road, so the fact that this game is at Creighton makes this a very playable spot. I also think this total is discounted based on the pace factors for the two teams. Creighton plays in the middle of the road. UCONN plays at an extremely slow pace. But, UCONN tends to mold to the team they play against. They have no issue running with teams if they have the opportunity to do so. Thus, if Creighton turns it over or turns this into a three-point shooting contest, UCONN is not the type of team to secure a rebound and walk it up the court. They are just efficient in running their half court offense. Let’s take the first half over here for our top total of the day. I think we see a first half total somewhere in the 70s.

Official Pick: UCONN/Creighton 1st Half OVER 67.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 4-Star

Two Additional 3-Star Plays:

1) Virginia Tech +13.5 vs. Duke (Number is way too big)

2) California +10.5 @ Miami (Number is way too big)