NFL Best Bet Monday Night Wild Card Game (1/12/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 12, 2026 | 9:38 A.M. CST
Best Bet: Houston Texans -3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
We’re backing the road favorite tonight in the final Wild Card matchup of this 2026 NFL Playoffs. The Texans come into this game as the lower seed, but they are a far better team than the Steelers. Pittsburgh is beyond lucky to even be in the playoffs, let alone hosting a playoff game. If Tyler Loop was able to knock in a 43 yard field goal we’d be looking at the Texans and Ravens tonight. If that lucky break wasn’t enough, the NFL sure did the Steelers a huge favor placing them in the Monday night slot. Pittsburgh has not lost on Monday night since 1991, and Mike Tomlin is undefeated as the Steeler’s head coach in Monday night games. The Texans, on the other hand, have NEVER won a road playoff game (0-7 all-time). And yet, we’re backing the Texans here. Why? Because the Steelers truly are not a playoff team when you look at the metrics. In fact, they are far from it. The Steelers went 1-5 against playoff teams this year, with their lone win coming against the New England Patriots all the way back in week 3 (before New England was playing at a high level). The Texans, on the other hand, are for real. And more importantly, they matchup extremely well against this Steelers team. Houston’s defense is ELITE. They are the best defense in the NFL, and the only team relatively close to them on that side of the ball is the Seattle Seahawks. They face off against a significantly below average offense. I see absolutely ZERO path for this Steelers offense to have ANY success tonight. I really wouldn’t be shocked to see Pittsburgh score single digits tonight. It’s almost impossible to see a path where the Steelers score 14 or more points, without CJ Stroud turning it over multiple times or seeing some sort of special teams touchdown. I have absolutely no idea what “sharps” have been doing in these NFL playoffs. We saw them back the Eagles, the Packers, the Jags, and now the Steelers. I just do not get it. You’re giving me this at such a discounted price. Smile and say thank you. Lay the 3 at reduced juice. I made this 5.5 and that’s factoring in the spot and the fact that I do not trust CJ Stroud at all. This really could be closer to 7 if Stroud was playing at even a decent level.
Official Pick: Houston Texans -3 (-105)
