College Basketball Conference Tournament Best Bet (3/11/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 11, 2025 | 9:59 P.M. CST
I haven’t had many best bets this past week, as conference tournaments tend to be more unpredictable. Remember, when you get to the tournament you feel the need to fire on everything because there are so many options; but pick your spots. Don’t force anything, especially if you’ve been tailing my plays. We’ve had a phenomenal year, so we are going to be very careful to pick our spots and keep our win % and profit margin high as we close out the season.
Below I’m going to give my best bet for the conference tournament winner
Conference Tournament Best Bet:
Tournament: Big 10 Tournament
My Pick: Maryland +370
Analysis: Look this Maryland team is one of the more dangerous teams in the country heading into March Madness. I really like the balance this team shows. They are top 35 in KenPom in both adjusted offensive efficiency (34th) and adjusted defensive efficiency (9th). However, if you look at how this offense has been trending over their last 10 games, they are very close to a top 10 offense. With the exception of one poor showing against Michigan State, they’ve been great on the offensive side the last 10 games. They’ve also been solid in road and neutral games this season, going 7-5 in such contests. They come into this tournament ranked 13th in the KP and 10th in the NET. So all the metrics consider this team one of the best 10 teams in the country, which tells me they are not only live to win this tournament, but to get to a Final Four come late March. Additionally, the Terps are very balanced on the offensive end in their style of play. They are top 100 in the country in both 3FG% (37th) and 2FG% (98th). Not only are they efficient across the board, but their point distribution is near the middle of the pack at every level (3s, 2s, & FT Line), meaning they aren’t heavily reliant on any one area. They can beat you a multitude of ways; this isn’t a team that you can say “okay if we slow them down in this area, we have a good shot to win.”
The Terps come into this tournament 24-7. Of those 7 losses, not a single one has come by more than 6 points, and 3 of those 7 losses have come by a single possession. Their average margin of defeat in those 7 losses is just 3.9 PPG (losses by: 4, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, & 2). So NOBODY has blown this team out all season, and you have to go all the way back to January 5th to find a team game they lost by more than one possession (Jan. 5th at Oregon, lost by 4). They come into this tournament winning 11 of their last 13 games (all in Big 10 play).
So you have a team who is coming into this tournament healthy, in great form, very balanced, and with a deep roster poised to make a deep March run. Then we look at their path to the Big 10 Title. And, that is where I just really like this. They are the 2-seed in this tournament, so they already received a “Double-Bye” into the Quarter Finals. Their first game will come against Iowa, Ohio State, or Illinois. Ohio State is the only one of those teams who beat Maryland in the regular season, and it came in Columbus, by 3 (a game Maryland led for 35 minutes and lost on a banked in Bruce Thornton 3 with 10 seconds left). I believe it will likely be Illinois, but regardless neither of those 3 teams have above a 20% chance to beat Maryland on a neutral floor. That leads us into the Semi-Finals, which would likely be against Purdue or Michigan. Both those teams are reeling as of late, and while public perception may be that those two teams are contenders in March, nothing could be farther from the truth. Maryland will be at least a 4.5 point favorite against either team. That leads us to the Big 10 Championship which is LIKELY to be Michigan State. Now, if the title game is against anyone other than MSU, Maryland is going to be a decent sized favorite in that game. If it is MSU, I really believe Maryland would have that game circled. The last time the two met, Michigan State shocked the Terps on a Tre Holloway half court buzzer beater. A game, that really swung the Big 10 Regular Season Title in Sparty’s favor. If it does come down to Maryland MSU, we’ll be holding a +370 ticket, when you probably won’t be able to grab anything better than +120 pre-game. And, my numbers would have Maryland (including the SPOT) as a 1 point favorite.
So, all that said, our best bet is going to be the Maryland Terrapins to WIN the Big 10 Tournament at +370 odds (you can play to +350). Keep in mind, you could do a rolling parlay and just take Maryland ML every round. If we see all the favorites advance, you’re looking at closer to +430 (based on my projections). However, it’s a risk, because if we get some big upsets, Maryland could end up being a bigger favorite than expected, which could drastically reduce those rolling parlay odds. I’m just going to back the terps to win the tournament. But you do have that option if you’d prefer to go that route. Either way, our wager is the same in what we need to have happen to WIN.
Official Pick: Maryland to win Big 10 Tournament (+370)
Play Rating: 2-Star
