College Hoops Conference Tournament Upset of the Day (3/13/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 13, 2025 | 3:57 P.M. CST
Not an official play, but my best ML pick for an upset today over +200
Upset Pick: Iowa +415 vs. Illinois
Iowa is currently catching 10.5 points taking on Illinois. This is a really interesting matchup, and I considered taking Iowa with the points as a best bet, but decided against it. The reason I didn’t take Iowa +10.5 as a best bet is largely due to their lack of rim protection and inability to consistently rebound. Illinois is an elite rebounding team and they CAN be really good at the rim when they want to be. They are 13th in the country in 2 point field goal percentage, and they are especially good at the rim. They also have an NBA lottery pick on their roster in Kasparus Jakucionis.
So overall, here’s the thing. This is a great spot for Iowa when you think about it. Usually teams like Iowa, who are hot in the tournament & face a team off a bye who has been sitting around for multiple days not playing, tend to fare well both SU & ATS. Iowa has basically been in playoff mode for the last two weeks, having to win on the road at Nebraska their final game just to get into the NCAA Tournament. They gave Michigan State all they could handle the game before that, and they then went out and beat Ohio State (who’s season was on the line). So Iowa is playing as good as they have all season, and although they aren’t fully healthy, the players who ARE available currently are finally 100%. The problem is, if Illinois decides they want to pound it inside every single possession and own the paint, they can run away with this game (which is why I’m not taking Iowa +10.5). Iowa is terrible defending the rim, as I mentioned. So they have no shot if Illinois starts going inside at will.
Why take Iowa then? Well the thing is, Illinois does NOT get a ton of their production from 2s, despite the fact that they are one of the most efficient 2-point shooting teams in the country. They actually shoot 2FGs at one of the lowest rates in the entire country (outside the top 300). Instead, this Illinois team LOVES to launch threes. They are WAY above average in terms of 3FG production, and they are 28th in the country in 3FG-rate (meaning they shoot more threes than 90% of the country). You would think a team that 3-point reliant would be at least a decent shooting team. But, that’s not the case. Illinois as a team shoots 31.0% from three, which is good for 320th in the country (364 Division 1 Teams).
So, while Illinois theoretically SHOULD go inside, knowing that if they do, they will likely run away with this game, they just have not played that style all season long. They just LOVE shooting threes. And if they fall in love with the three here, Iowa is a live dog. Iowa is GOING to score here. As I mentioned they’ve been playing and shooting it very well as of late. That said, they are also the 2nd most efficient offense in the Big 10 overall on the season. So, you have a very good offense, who is in a good rhythm. I estimate that Iowa has about a 30% chance to win this game overall. If Illinois plays the style they have all year and starts launching threes at a high rate, that probability could increase closer to the high 30s. And when you look at the number, you are getting 4.15 to 1 on your money to back Iowa ML. That’s just too good of a price. That’s essentially an edge of 10.5% to back Iowa here. So we’re going to do that. Like I said above, it’s not an official play, but it’s worth 1/4th or 1/5th of a unit.
Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes (+415)
Play Rating: N/A
