College Basketball Rare Totals Best Bet

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 12, 2026 | 2:53 P.M. CST

Note: So I’ve been working on a new system betting college basketball totals. Specifically, betting first half overs and team total overs (both 1st halves and full games). It’s been absurdly successful, going 15-2 through the last 17. It’s taken some refining, but now with a decent sample size, I’m ready to post. I’m excited to use these plays going into next season.

Best Bet: Duke vs. Florida State 1st Half OVER 72

This number is incredibly deflated. I made this game total (removing late game fouling) 162. Take that in two halves, and we’re looking at 81 per half. The first time these two teams played it was an absolute shoot out. I don’t see why this one will be any different. Why? Because Duke is down 2 starters, including their best rim protector in Patrick Ngongba. Ngongba missed their last regular season game against UNC. Guess what? That game went over the first half total as well, and went over this number by multiple possessions. Florida State plays MUCH faster than UNC and they’ve been on a heater offensively. This is not a Leonard Hamilton FSU team. If they are elite at anything, it’s not defense. They shoot it better than any FSU team over the past decade, they’ve got great guard play, and they are coming off playing yesterday (which is often good for rhythm). Duke not playing for an extended stretch will hurt them on the defensive end more than on the offensive end, as FSU doesn’t have the defense to slow down Boozier and Malik Brown. If Duke shoots remotely decent from the perimeter, we should see this go over the first half total easily. Take the first half over and enjoy a sweat free win.

Official Pick: Duke/FSU 1H OVER 72 (-110)

Play Rating: 3-Star