College Football Best Bets (10/11/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 11, 2025 | 2:01 A.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) Kansas +14.5 @ Texas Tech: This is one where the number is just off. Yes, Tech has looked good so far this season. They’re a perfect 5-0, and they are coming off back to back 20+ point road wins over Utah and Houston (both of which were undefeated at time of the matchup). However, Tech has yet to face a team in the top 35 of my power rankings. Utah has proved to be a fraud so far this season. Houston’s record is deceiving (they just hadn’t played anyone). And, Oregon State, Kent State, and Arkansas Pine-Bluff are 3 of the worst teams in the country. Kansas is a top 35 team on the other hand. And, while they are not an ELITE football team, they do have talent (especially on the offensive end) to keep up with Texas Tech. Kansas comes into the game 4-2, but their first loss of the season against Missouri is deceiving. They lost by 11, and failed to cover, but the Jayhawks led that game 21-6, and squandered the lead before halftime. They also led by 3 with under 6 minutes to play and had Mizzou in a 4th and 9 on their own side of the field. If Kansas gets a stop on that play they have a 90%+ chance to win that game outright. Instead, Missouri converted before going down and scoring. And a late garbage time TD ended in a loss and a brutal bad beat for Kansas backers +7. Their second loss came at home to Cincinnati, which is looking better and better, as the Bearkats are currently 2-0 in the Big 12 after absolutely dominating top 15 Iowa State last week. This could be a spot where the Jayhawks are a public dog, and they just get absolutely smashed from the jump. If that’s your reason backing Tech I can’t argue. I just can’t get to this number. Even in the highest variance power rankings, Tech is a 7 point favorite on a neutral. I make Tech 5.8 on a neutral. Again, the most you could give Tech in a night game is 4 points (and that’s kind of wild to be honest). Meaning, at the absolute highest Tech should be an 11 point favorite here. And we’re catching 14 and a hook. The real number I make this game is right around 9. So we’re going through two key secondary numbers. Give me the Jayhawks and the value in this spot, even if it turns out to be a public dog. I’d be shocked to not at least have a shot at a backdoor cover late. I think the Jayhawks are a rare 14+ point LIVE DOG.
Official Pick: Kansas +14.5 (-110)
2) USC -2.5 vs. Michigan: This is a good spot for USC. They went into Illinois a few weeks ago as a 7 point favorite, and lost outright. Lincoln Riley continues to disappoint when traveling west in the Big 10. However, he’s been much better at home in Southern California. Last year in this same spot, coming off a loss and going into a bye week, they were just 4-5 facing off against Nebraska and won that game 28-20 (and covered). In fact, under Lincoln Riley, when USC has 8 or more days to prepare in the regular season, the Trojans are 4-1 straight up, including a perfect 2-0 coming off a bye following a loss. Michigan has played only one other true road game this season (at Oklahoma). They were horrific offensively in that game, and never stood a chance against an OU team I believe is highly overrated. I’m not a big Lincoln Riley guy, but I do think he’s better than Sheron Moore. Similarly, I’m not a big Maiava fan, but I think he’s better than Underwood. Give me the better QB, the better coach, coming off a bye at home. Tough travel spot for Michigan as well. Back the Trojans at home and lay the 2.5
Official Pick: USC -2.5 (-110)
3) BYU -1 @ Arizona: This is another one that I just don’t get to this number on. BYU on a neutral field, based on the 5 weeks of data and the pre-season rankings should be a 6.5 point favorite over Arizona on a neutral field. With general homefield advantage, they should still be over a FG favorite in this game. And that’s not taking into account that Arizona has a very weak homefield advantage. Bear Bachmaier has been awesome this season so far, but the BYU defense is what’s really been elite. Arizona on the other hand has had a surprisingly good start to the year, but the lone time they stepped up in class was against Iowa State and they got absolutely destroyed. This is a similar step up in class, but I believe BYU is better. Let’s back the Cougs here and lay the short number (Moneyline is fine too at -123 or better)
Official Pick: BYU -1 (-110)
4) Indiana @ Oregon UNDER 55.5: Well if you don’t bet totals, 55 is the most key number in college football (almost 4% of games land exactly on that number). We’re currently getting a hook over 55, and that’s very key here. I love the value in this number as well. The total in this case is taking into account an entire season worth of data. But when you look at how these two teams’ offenses faired against teams with similar caliber defenses, neither was remotely close to great. Oregon faced Penn State’s defense two weeks ago, and the Ducks scored 17 total points in regulation. That game was 3-3 at halftime, and somehow ended up going over the total because of late scores by Penn State to tie it, and then 3 combined touchdowns in overtime. Indiana’s only time playing a half decent defense, the game ended 20-15 against Iowa, and that included a score with under 2 minutes to go for the Hoosiers to escape with a win. I think we see a similar outcome in this matchup. We have two teams with seemingly elite defenses, but below average P5 offenses. I think the defenses win here and win BIG. I don’t see how this game gets past the 20s. It would take a 28-28 tie to get to overtime to get this over. I think we see closer to 24-14 type of game with Oregon winning with it’s defense. We’re backing the under at a very valuable number. Go UNDER in this gameday matchup.
Official Pick: Indiana @ Oregon Under 55.5 (-110)
All Play Ratings: 2-Stars
