College Football Best Bets (10/4/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 4, 2025 | 2:35 A.M. CST
Best Bets Today:
1) Navy vs. Air Force OVER 51.5: It’s wild that the betting markets (that are so sophisticated) refuse to catch up to these service academies. Specifically, Air Force, who might have the worst defense in college football. In the past, seeing a total in the 50s with two service academies would be an automatic under bet, but times have changed. This Navy team has one of the better QBs in the country in Blake Horvath. And, he’s going against an Air Force team who’s got one of the worst defenses in the FBS. Their scores this season have SOARED over this number. This one will be no different. I can’t see this game going under 60. It’s going to be an absolute shootout
2) Illinois @ Purdue OVER 55.5: Illinois is coming off a big win, so it could be a slow start, but I don’t think it matters here. Their secondary is awful, and I think Purdue will do enough as a 10 point dog in this spot offensively to get this over the total. Illinois offense is VERY good, so even if they do start slow, I could see this still getting there in the second half. Regardless, Purdue put up 30 against Notre Dame last week, while giving up 56. They gave up the same number we need to get to here on defense alone. So I’m not worried at this number whatsoever. I think this is another one that the market has not adjusted enough. Go OVER here as well.
3) Mississippi State @ Texas A&M OVER 56: Here’s one more over for good measure. I know A&M’s defense looked better last week, but that was against Jackson Arnold and a TERRIBLE Auburn offense. I would be shocked to see Mississippi State held in check here. I think the Aggies will have plenty of success on offense, so I don’t see how this number doesn’t go over 56. I will say, we will need Marcel Reed to be better throwing the ball than he’s been so far this season. But I think this is a good spot for him to get right. Mississippi State is coming off a very tough loss to Tennessee, and I could see a hangover effect in play.
4) Virginia +6.5 @ Louisville: Look this is going to be a public dog, and I hate taking those. But this number is just off by a mile. Virginia, on a neutral field would be favored by 3 against Louisville in my power ratings. That means this should be roughly a pick’em. We’re CATCHING nearly a touchdown here. Not only do you have to play this +6.5, but it’s absolutely worth a sprinkle on the moneyline at +190. The Hoos are coming off a big upset of FSU, but that was on a Thursday night. They aren’t still thinking about that win 9 days later. And this Louisville team is just WAY overrated. They could’ve lost (and probably should’ve lost) to James Madison in week 2. Last week they trailed 17-0 to Pittsburgh, and trailed by 7 with under 10 minutes to play and got a lucky turnover as Pittsburgh was going into score on the 1 yard line. That flipped the whole game. This team easily could have 2-3 losses. Instead they’re 4-0, and this number is off because of it. On the other side, Virginia very easily could have beaten NC State week 2, which would have them undefeated. I think Virginia goes into Louisville and takes down the cardinals. But take the 6.5, and if you want to be really safe, you could buy it to 7
All Play Ratings: 2-Stars
Note: Our Podcast on youtube has a pick’em show. There was an issue with the uploading of our video this week, so this will serve as our official picks for the podcast. My 4 “Bet Your Baby Bets” on the Podcast are the same as the 4 above. Uncle T’s Double Digit Dog of the Week is Maryland +200 (+7) @ Washington. And his total of the week was last night’s game (Delaware/WKU OVER), which was a loss.
