College Football Best Bets, Saturday, 9/27/25 (Early Releases)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 26, 2025 | 1:09 P.M.
NCAA Record: 9-9 (Rough start, only .500, let’s get on the board in the green)
Best Bets (Early Releases)
1) Ole Miss ML (-115) vs. LSU
I gave this one out earlier in the week. There hasn’t been any real movement. I love the Rebs in this spot. I believe they are undervalued because they have a backup QB playing, but he’s better than the starter. LSU’s early season win over Clemson, where they trailed the entirety of the game, looks essentially unimpressive after Clemson has started 1-3, with their lone win over Troy (a game they could’ve lost as well). And the only SEC win LSU has posted in that span is a home win AT NIGHT against Florida. Florida out-gained the Tigers by 50+ yards, had 13 more first downs, and got into Tiger territory 6 times, only to score 10 total points. The Gators also led 3-0, and scored on a 90+ yard TD, that was called back due to a phantom hold. If Florida isn’t called for that penalty (which it wasn’t), that game goes a totally different way. Nothing they’ve done offensively has been impressive. And, I find it hard to believe they shut down this Ole Miss high powered offense by any means in Oxford. Give me the Rebs here.
Official Pick: Ole Miss -115 (ML) | 2-Star
2) Arkansas State +3 (Buy 1/2 point) -125 @ ULM
ULM come into this game 2-1 and Arkansas State is jus 1-3, but the records don’t show the true value here. ULM’s wins have come over St. Francis (non FBS) and UTEP by 6 (might as well be non-FBS). Two of Arkansas State’s losses have come against Arkansas and Iowa State (P4 teams). And they hung in there with Iowa State most of the way. Jalon Raynor (ARK ST QB) is experienced and has had success there for multiple years under head coach Butch Jones. We’re already seeing significant money come in on Arkansas State pushing this below the key number of 3, and we are still seeing money pour in that same way. That’s a clear indicator this is the right side.
Official Pick: Arkansas State +3 (-125) | 2-Star
3) Penn State -3.5 vs. Oregon
I would absolutely love this at -3, but I still really like it at 3.5. These two teams are not equal on a neutral field, which is essentially what this line is saying. Oregon has played nothing but cupcakes and they’re getting credit for winning by big numbers against bad teams. Penn State hasn’t looked incredibly impressive by any means, but they still have the better roster, better QB, and they’re at home in a night white out in Happy Valley. It’s actually baffling to me that this line isn’t 6. PSU is at least a 3 point favorite on a neutral field + PSU’s home field advantage is worth somewhere between 3 and 3.5 points. Those higher on Penn State could make an argument for them laying 7 even. Regardless, I love this spot for Penn State. They’ve been holding everything back for this specific game. And I truly do not trust Oregon’s QB. Dante Moore has done nothing to earn this much respect. He was highly recruited coming out of high school, that’s about it. His only decent performances have come against FCS teams. And, he’s NEVER been in an environment like this before. He’s going to be shell shocked. I don’t think this game is close. Give me Penn State by 14, and this is going to be our first 4-star play of the year in CFB.
Official Pick: Penn State -3.5 | 4-Star
