College Football Week 0 Best Bets

Author: Dylan Lieck | August 29, 2026 | 4:55 A.M. CST

College football is BACK baby! I’ve got two plays for you to kick off the first day of college football. I won’t be playing big units early on, as it can be tough to get a great feel for teams with the current roster turnover in today’s college football world. But I still have two plays I do like for week zero.

North Carolina +8.5 vs. TCU

Let’s be clear here, I hated what I saw from North Carolina last season under Bill Belichick. To say it was a train wreck would be a massive understatement. Funny enough, their first game of the season last year came at home against Sunny Dykes’ TCU Horned Frogs. And, the Tarheels went straight down the field on the first drive of the season and scored a touchdown. The place was going nuts, and everyone in that stadium fully expected it to be history from that point on. Instead, TCU not only went down and answered with a touchdown of their own, but then preceded to rattle off 41 straight points, in route to a 48-14 win over the Tarheels in Belichick’s debut as a collegiate head coach.

That said, these aren’t the same teams as last year. TCU was slightly above average in their own right a season ago. They finished 9-4 with an Alamo Bowl win, but were never in the mix for a Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff birth. And that all came with Josh Hoover as the starting QB. Hoover, one of the top rated portal players, transferred to defending National Champion Indiana to play for Curt Cignetti. That loss will be felt in a big way by Dykes and company, as Hoover’s replacement is a SIGNIFICANT step down. I’ve read a lot about the “potential” of Jayden Craig (Harvard transfer). But the reality is, when you look at his tape and break down his numbers, there is a reason he’s been in the Ivy League for his first 3 college seasons. His TD to INT ratio is very good; over the course of the last two seasons he has 48 TDs to just 10 INTs. The problem is his completion percentage is abysmal for a QB playing in the Ivy League who is supposed to be a Power 4 conference level QB. His best season was slightly above 61%. Additionally, if you look at his numbers against the best competition last season, it wasn’t good. The final game of the season against Villanova (the closest thing he saw to an FBS level defense), Craig was awful. Completing just 9/21 passes for 105 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTS, in route to a blowout loss.

UNC’s QB on the other hand, is a significant step up from what they had last season. Gio Lopez was one of the worst P4 starting QBs. Now, in steps Billy Edwards. While his career numbers won’t wow you, he’s got a significantly larger sample size (with success I might add) against P4 level defenses. He was the starter at Maryland for a full season, and although the Terps weren’t great, Edwards threw for over 2,800 yards, 15 TDs & 9 INTs. Yes, those numbers aren’t phenomenal, but he did it with very little talent around him; he was at a disadvantage against the opposing defense from a talent perspective, every game. He was good enough for the Wisconsin Badgers to go after him last season. Edwards started the first game of the season for Wisconsin, before going down with a season ending knee injury. According to reports, he says that knee had been bothering him for a long time prior to the injury, and following his surgery he feels healthier than he ever has in his college career. That’s good because I think he will be able to use his legs against this TCU defense that loves to sit in zone.

Now the coaching. I’m not a fan of Sunny Dykes whatsoever. Dykes was the head coach when TCU made their cinderella run to the National Title game, before getting spanked by Georgia. But that season, people forget that Dykes actually chose to start Chandler Morris over Max Duggen to start the year. And if it weren’t for an injury to Morris, Duggen would likely never have stepped in (or would’ve stepped in way too late), and TCU likely never sniffs a College Football Playoff. Since that magical year, the Horned Frogs have underperformed from pre-season expectations pretty much every year. And I think this year will be no different. My feelings on Dykes are only solidified by the fact that he hired Andy Avalos as his DC and has kept him on again this season. Avalos was essentially run out of town in Boise, after the players all but revolted; NOBODY liked playing for the guy. On the other hand, while Bill Belichick had a horrible first season, I still trust the 5-time Super Bowl champ over Sunny Dykes any day of the week. Especially now that the two rosters aren’t as separated as they were last year.

I’d also like to note that everyone is forgetting that this game is in Dublin, Ireland. And I can tell you this: NOBODY knows how college players are going to react to having to play in a completely different country with a HUGE time change. That said, Bill Belichick was 3-1 as a head coach in international games in the NFL, so he clearly knows how to win in this environment. That IS an advantage in my book. I’d also like to note that since this Ireland series resumed in 2022, underdogs are 3-1 straight up and ATS, including two double digit dogs winning outright. Last year a smaller dog won, as Iowa State upset Kansas State as a 3.5 point dog. It makes sense in the setting alone, to back the dog (especially of over a touchdown) when the two teams are in an unpredictable environment like this. So that alone made me lean UNC. Then you throw in all the other elements and I actually think UNC is a LIVE DOG in this spot.

So we’re backing UNC +8.5 (good to +7.5) and sprinkle some on the moneyline +255

Official Play: North Carolina +8.5

Play Rating: 1 Unit

Virginia -4 vs NC State

While I may not have a great feeling on the rosters of most teams heading into week zero, one team I do have a phenomenal feel for is Virginia. I played them at +1600 to win the ACC (they should be closer to +800). The Cavaliers returned their entire offensive line, and should have the best offensive front in the conference, and one of the best in the country. They are going to have a phenomenal run game this season, and I expect them to have a lot of success in this opener, at home against NC State. Add in that the Cavs arguably upgraded at QB, adding Missouri trasnfer Beau Pribula. Not only is Pribula a highly touted recruit out of high school, with starting experience in the SEC. But he also fits this scheme perfectly, with his ability to use his legs.

I expect Virginia to lean heavily on it’s run game in this one (and all season). That success will undoubtedly open up the deep pass game for Pribula to hit some deep shots to their talented receivers. On the other side, you’ve got CJ Bailey for NC State. I’ve heard a lot of hype about the improvement of Bailey for this upcoming season, but I just don’t buy it. This is a guy who was incredibly inaccurate as a pocket passer last season for the Wolfpack. I find it hard to believe Bailey is going to step into a true road game (a conference game at that) and be able to have consistent success against a Tony Elliott led defense with all off-season to prepare. Bailey’s best attribute is his legs, and I have a very strong feeling that Elliott is going to make Bailey beat them with his arm from the pocket. I also don’t trust NC State’s OL like I do UVA’s. I think UVA has a shot to really get some pressure on Bailey and make him uncomfortable in the pocket, where he already struggles mightily.

This one is easier to handicap than the previous one in my opinion. 4 points is just way too few for a veteran Virginia team, who played in the ACC Title game last, playing at home against an NC State team that underperformed a year ago, who is going to lean on a QB that I just do not trust. Give me Elliott, Pribula, and company to run all over NC State and cover the 4 points with ease. Lay the points with Virginia.

Official Pick: Virginia -4

Play Rating: 1 Unit