College Football Win Totals Part 1 (8/23/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 23, 2025 | 3:07 A.M. CST
Below I will provide the win totals that I have already bet. There is still a week left for a number of teams before they play their first game, and I’m still working on my totals. So, I will post a second part of this article with additional win total picks.
Win Totals:
1) Hawaii OVER 5.5 Wins (-165): Hawaii won 5 games last season (finished 5-7), and they lost 3 games by 3 points or less. They were very close to being bowl eligible last year, and I believe they will get there this season. They return 14 starters, and that doesn’t include their QB (who started the final game of the season last year and threw for 300+ yards & 5 TDs). With the exception of a game at UNLV, the Rainbow Warriors don’t have a sure loss on the schedule, and they avoid having to face Boise State.
2) LSU OVER 8.5 Wins (-140): Last year I faded LSU (took them Under 9.5 wins), largely due to a poor transfer portal and recruiting class and we cashed that easily. This year we’re taking the opposite approach, largely due to the incoming talent and returning production. If Arch Manning stays for two seasons, there’s a good chance Garrett Nussmeier is the number one overall pick in the draft next year. Looking at the schedule, if they go into Clemson and win week 1, the Tigers are going to cruise over this win total easily. BUT, if they lose week 1, they still have a legitimate shot to go over. We have room for 3 losses, and even with a loss to Clemson, the Tigers schedule is favorable ENOUGH to get to 9 wins. They avoid Texas and Georgia in SEC play, and one of their road SEC games is Vanderbilt. The Tigers will win 9 or 10 games (depending on if they take down Clemson week 1).
3) Oregon UNDER 10.5 (-135): Dante Moore is a 5-star kid, transferring from UCLA. The problem is, he couldn’t even win the starting job on one of the worst teams in the conference last year. He struggles with accuracy, consistency, and taking care of the ball; and while Oregon is a hub for QB production, I’m not sold that Moore is going to be able to step in the way Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel did for the Ducks. Now, they don’t have the toughest schedule, but they DO go TO Penn State. That is going to be a loss, baring significant injury to the Nittany Lions. Thus, we only need the Ducks to lose one more game out of their 11 remaining. And, they are coming off an undefeated season, which is often hard to follow up (look at FSU last year). We’re backing Oregon to go UNDER their win total here.
4) Indiana OVER 8.5 Wins: The Hoosiers non-conference schedule is an absolute joke. They will undoubtedly start the year 3-0, meaning we need to go 6-3 or better to cash the win total from week 4 on. While they do have to go to Penn State and Oregon (both very likely losses), they dodge Ohio State in the regular season. Additionally, 5 of their remaining 9 opponents have win total projections below 6 games. If odds hold true, that means Indiana would have to beat just ONE team projected to make a bowl game to cash this ticket. The numbers back up Indiana over here, as I have them winning 9.7 games this year (model). Take the Hoosiers to go OVER their win total
