NBA Finals Game 7 Best Bet (6/22/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 22, 2025 | 9:21 A.M. CST
Previous Play: We won last week on Tuesday on our moneyline favorite parlay in the WNBA. We were very fortunate in the NY Liberty game, as they fell behind big, and were able to comeback and find a way to win late at home. The other three games were all blowouts. Another win in the books nonetheless.
Current Streak: 4
Best Bet Tonight: OKC Thunder -6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers
I did a video breaking down this game on YouTube, and there where I broke down the keys to the game. Go checkout that video if you want a full game breakdown. But here I’m just going to focus on the number, which is where the value lies here. Games 1 & 5 the Thunder closed as a 9.5 point favorite, and in game 2 they closed as a 10.5 point favorite. Those were the 3 home games they’ve had in this series. They’ve won and covered 2 of those 3 games (including each of the last two). The lone game they didn’t cover, they led by double digits in the fourth and just collapsed late. So, just from a pure numbers perspective, this makes absolutely no sense. We’re looking at a number that is a full 3 points short from the average number we’ve opened in this series. So from a pure value perspective, the Thunder are 100% the side here.
Secondly, you have to look at how good OKC has been at home this postseason. They’ve had two losses in the playoffs by a combined 3 points, and both came on buzzer beaters. One came against the Nuggets in game 1 of the West Semis. The other came in game 1 of the NBA Finals against their current opponent, the Indiana Pacers. Overall, the Thunder have been DOMINANT at home, and nothing has been different in the NBA Finals. They are 10-2 straight up at home in the post-season, with a +247 scoring margin. That’s ABSURD, especially considering the fact that they have 2 losses in that stretch. And, there’s no reason to believe the dominance is going to change tonight. Yes, the Pacers have been very fortunate and they’ve been the hottest team in the league up to this point. But, the Pacers have not been the same team on the road.
We’re going to roll with the Thunder tonight and lay the 6.5. It’s just too cheap of a price; the number is just plain wrong. I understand factoring in a game 7 and factoring in the “destiny” feel of this Pacers team. But I believe in numbers and math. And the math says that this number is 3 points short. While the Thunder may have been overpriced in the series price to start the NBA Finals, they are largely underpriced tonight. Let’s take advantage of it. Lay the 6.5. I would play it to 7 (-110).
Official Pick: OKC Thunder -6.5 (-120); play to -7 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
