College Hoops Best Bet (2/24/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 24, 2025 | 7:23 P.M. CST
Overall Record: 48-22 (68.6%)
Best Bet: Houston @ Texas Tech Over 130
So I came into this night initially thinking I was going to look to go Texas Tech +2 (which is where this sat most of today). However, one of the Red Raiders best players, Chance McMillian, did not play a few days ago at West Virginia, and I wanted to monitor his status. Luckily I did hold off, as just a few minutes ago McMillian WAS ruled out for tonight’s game (he’s in a walking boot). That’s a huge blow to the Red Raiders in terms of pulling off the season sweep of the best team in the Big 12 in the Houston Cougars. The market responded accordingly, with the line jumping from 2 to 4.5 as the news was released. That’s quite a big jump for one player, but that is the value of McMillian to this team.
Now, that said, even with one of the top offensive players for the Red Raiders out tonight, I think there is some value in the total as we currently sit. This opened 133 and it got bet down to 131. I didn’t agree with that initial move, and then when McMillian got ruled out we saw that drop another point. It’s telling though, the value of McMillian to the point spread vs. the total; while the Cougars jumped 2.5 points, the total dropped only one. One reason for that is TTU has shown the ability to score without McMillian. They put up 73 points against West Virginia without him a couple nights ago. Back on February 15th, McMillian was just 2/4 from the field, and scored just 10 points, and TTU dropped 93. I’m not saying that TTU is better with McMillian; they are not. He is very important to them. But when you look at this number, if the line is correct, we’re looking at Houston winning by 4-5 points. If that holds true, we’re looking at TTU needing 63-64 points. Texas Tech has scored less than 64 points ONCE this entire season and it came months ago. Yes, Houston has an elite defense metrically, but from watching them this year, I don’t believe they are anywhere near some of the past elite defenses Kelvin Sampson has had. And they specifically tend to give up a lot of good looks from three. Teams haven’t shot it great against them (they’re 77th in the country in 3FG% defense), but that’s nowhere near elite. And Texas Tech really took advantage of that last time these two played, knocking down 12 triples in Houston.
Now Tech gets to play this one at home, where the crowd is going to be going absolutely BONKERS. Tech is a top 15 team in the country in terms of 3 point percentage, and they have a propensity to get hot in an environment like this. Houston’s offense on the other hand, is much better than it’s been in years past. In fact, they are 7th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (KP). While I don’t believe that they are really the 7th best offensive team in the country, I DO think they are a solid offensive team. And the numbers show it; Houston is SOMEHOW 4th in the country in 3FG%. That shocked me when I saw that number. They’ve shot it at 40% from beyond the arc this season, and that’s with Emmanuel Sharp (best 3 point shooter from last year) going through some struggles. Tech’s defense on the other hand, has been quite suspect. It showed the first time these two teams met. This total went over by 30+ points from the current number (163 points). Now, that game did go to overtime, BUT it still went over by double digits in regulation. And, while there is no McMillian for Tech, they lost their head coach AND leading scorer (JT Toppin) in the first 4 minutes of that game at Houston. Toppin has averaged 26 points per game over the last 9 games, and has been on an absolute TEAR statistically. He’s a full go tonight, and that SHOULD make up for the loss of McMillian when looking at this number.
Overall, I just think books haven’t adjusted to this specific Houston team. They are better offensively than in years past & worse defensively. I was a bit weary of the line movement the other way, but I can’t pass up value when I see it. Even with this injury accounted for, I make this total 140. Could Houston lay an egg offensively and Tech wins this 70-55? Yes. Could the inverse happen and Tech has their worst night of the season and Houston turns it into a grinded out game? Yes. But the home team usually controls the pace; and Tech likes to run. I think this is a somewhat up and down game, and I believe we go over this number relatively easily. My prediction is Houston sneaks out a win they don’t deserve late, 71-70. And we go over with that outcome. Give me the over in this spot at a good price.
Official Pick: Houston @ Texas Tech OVER 130 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
