College Hoops Best Bet (2/25/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 25, 2025 | 5:00 A.M. CST

Overall Record: 48-22

Best Bet: San Diego State -120 (ML) vs. New Mexico

While this SDSU team isn’t at the same level as Aztec teams of the past half decade, they’ve really started to play better down the stretch, as we are close to the end of Mountain West play. The Aztecs are 8-2 in their last 10 games, going 4-1 in their last 5. They were on a 4-game win streak, prior to losing at Utah State in their last outing (no shame in that loss). Moreover, this Aztec team has been really solid at home as of late. In fact, their last loss at home came over a month ago against UNLV. That was actually the ONLY loss at home to a non-tournament team all year. Their other two home losses this year came against Gonzaga (11th in KP) and Utah State (42nd in KP); UNLV is 93rd in KP. I think it’s safe to say that UNLV loss was an outlier. So then we look at the other losses. Gonzaga early in the year is nothing to hang your head about, not to mention this Aztec team wasn’t playing it’s best ball that early in the season. The only other one came against Utah State. And that’s a Utah State team who swept the Aztecs in their season series; which tells me that it was likely just a poor matchup with that squad. Especially considering they lost each game by 8+ points.

SDSU is 4-0 in their last 4 home games, with their last two home wins coming by an average of 20 ppg. That also includes a 17 point domination of Boise State who is one of the better teams in this conference. SDSU comes into this game knowing that this is a MUST win for them when it comes to seeding for the conference tournament. Why is that important? Well, SDSU is PROBABLY out of contention for an at-large bid to the Big Dance this season. Therefore, their only path to the NCAA Tournament is to win their conference tourney. Well with that in mind, the way the MW Conference Tournament is structured gives the top 5 seeds first round byes. The TOP 3 seeds get byes and will play the winner of a game between two teams seeded 6-11. Meanwhile, 4 & 5 seeds automatically matchup in round 2. That makes getting the 3 seed incredibly important for two reasons. Number one, there’s a big drop off in the MW from seed 5 to seed 6. Seeds 1-5 (NM, Utah St, Colorado St, SDSU, & Boise) are all teams who are either in the NCAA Tournament or fringe-tourney teams. From seed 6 down, none of those teams have any shot at an NCAA Tournament birth, beyond winning the MW Conference Tournament; not a single team currently 6-11 has a winning record in conference play. Thus, by getting that 3rd seed, the Aztecs would AVOID having to play either Colorado State or Boise State in their first game, and they would instead get the winner of the 6 vs. 11 matchup (Currently UNLV vs Fresno State). Well currently SDSU sits tied for 4th (holding the TB over Boise) at 11-5. Colorado State sits ONE game above the Aztecs at 12-4, and SDSU & CSU split their season series. That means the tie-breaker would be win % against against the top team in the conference. That would be New Mexico, which CSU went 0-2 against; thus, a win by SDSU tonight over that NM team would give SDSU the Tie Breaker. Additionally, CSU still has to play AT Utah State (currently 2nd in MW). While, SDSU has a much easier schedule to finish MW play. After tonight’s game, they finish with 3 teams all in the 6-11 seed range in the MW. Throw in the possibility that SDSU DOES win tonight, and goes on to win the next 4. That would finish them 22-7 overall, 15-5 in the MW. Considering this team has been a staple in the NCAA tournament, if they were to finish with that record, and say win 2 games and GET TO the MW Championship game and LOSE, they would at least be in the conversation. A loss tonight, basically means they will almost certainly finish either 4th or 5th in the MW, which would give them a much tougher matchup in the MW tournament, would mean they have to play the TOP MW team in the semi-finals, and would mean their chances at an at-large bid to the Big Dance would be zero. Thus, my overall point here is that this is a MASSIVE game for SDSU tonight. And they will be as locked in as they have been all season.

In addition to the magnitude of this game from a post-season perspective, this Aztec team has also been quite consistent this season. In fact, they have not lost back-to-back games ALL YEAR. They are a perfect 6-0 off a loss this year. And, even more impressively some of the teams they BEAT coming off a loss were: Creighton (2nd in Big East), Houston (number 3 in country), Colorado State (3rd in MW), & Boise State (T-4th in MW). So they’ve been better than good coming off a loss this season. Under Brian Dutcher, the Aztecs have been phenomenal following a loss. They have lost back-to-back games just TWICE in the past FOUR YEARS under Dutcher. They are 26-2 off a loss under Dutcher, and the last time they lost back-to-back came late last year where they lost two straight by a single possession. So this team is in a spot they are very comfortable performing well. This specific group has yet to be eat twice in a row this season. AND, you have this New Mexico team playing their second straight road game. This is a tough travel spot for New Mexico. Yes, they will be fired up coming off that loss to Boise State, but they just got screwed having this be their next opponent. I’ll be clear - this is NOT a fade of New Mexico whatsoever; I actually really like the Lobos this year. But this is just an awful spot for them, and I really like what I’ve seen from this SDSU team as of late.

Lastly when we look at the specific matchups of this game, both these teams rely heavily on their defense. Both have significantly better adjusted defensive efficiency ratings than they do adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. In fact, both teams are outside the top 65 when it comes to offense, while both teams are top 30 in the country when it comes to defense. However, there are a few reasons I like this matchup for SDSU. Number one, New Mexico plays at one of the fastest tempos in the country offensively. They are 4th in the nation in average length of possession on offense. SDSU, on the other hand, forces team into much longer possessions, as they are 332nd in country in average length of possession on defense. Traditionally, it’s much easier to slow a game down than to speed it up, AND it’s much easier to control the tempo of the game when you are at home. So I believe this game is going to be played at a pace much more conducive to SDSU’s style than to NM’s style. Number two, New Mexico is heavily reliant on 2FGs; they get 53.5% of their total production on 2s, which is in the top 1/5th in the country. SDSU is ELITE at 2FG defense; they allow one of the lowest rates of production from 2s in the country (41.1% of opponent production comes from 2s), and they are ELITE at forcing tough 2s (they are 8th in the country in 2FG% defense with opponents shooting 44.2% from 2). Because of this, I believe New Mexico is going to have a tough time trying to get out in transition and get easy 2s. Instead they are going to have to play longer, half-court possessions, and grind out buckets on the offensive end. This is going to make it difficult for them to score efficiently against the 10th ranked SDSU defense (nationally).

Because of the matchup, the spot, and SDSU’s ELITE ability to bounce back off a loss, we’re going to back the Aztecs in this spot. I WISH New Mexico had beaten Boise State in their last outing. That would’ve made this a perfect spot for SDSU and this likely would’ve been a 4-star. Because NM is going to come in focused off a loss, I’m going to make this a 2.5-star. A small step up from a normal play for me, but not a full 3 or 4 star. I still LOVE the spot & love the matchup, and I believe we see the Aztecs take care of business tonight and stay in the hunt for one of those top 3 seeds in the Mountain West. Lay the cheap ML with the Aztecs. Get ahead of it before it moves

Official Pick: SDSU -120

Play Rating: 2.5-Star