College Hoops Best Bet SEC Tournament (3/13/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 13, 2025 | 5:28 P.M. CST

Overall Record: 51-23 (68.9%)

Best Bet:

With about 5 games left in the season, I saw Missouri as a dark horse team to make a Final Four run. They have really good, big athletic wings. Everyone on the team can shoot it from deep. They rebound well, they had some phenomenal wins on the resumé. However, they lost 4 of their last 5 to end the regular season, including their last 3 games. However, all 4 losses came against tournament teams, and 3 of the 4 came on the road. The lone loss that came at home came against UK where the Wildcats shot the lights out.

Missouri comes into this game elite offensively, despite the losing streak. They are 13th in effective FG% (nationally), including top 30 in both 3-point & 2-point FG%. They average 83.5 PPG on the season as a team. Even in the past 5 games (where they went 1-4) the Tigers scored 83, 84, 93, 101, & 85 (89.2 PPG). So they have been scoring it at a super high level (higher than their season average by far), despite losing 4 of those games. The reason I bring this up is we are going to look to a team total here. Missouri is currently sitting at a team total of 80.5. As previously mentioned they have been scoring at a super high clip all year, and they have been especially good offensively lately. But just that number in itself, the Tigers have gone over 9 consecutive games. While Mississippi State is no slouch defensively, they definitely are not elite. They come into this game just 48th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.

I have seen some sharp money come in on the game over (157.5). However, I just don’t trust Mississippi State’s offense enough to get to their number (77.5). Could this become a complete shootout? Yes, because Missouri can gamble too much defensively and that can lead to a very up and down game. That said, I am just going to go with the team total here. I like what Missouri has done lately, and I like that the sharp money is on the over. I just trust Missouri to get over that number (as they have done nearly every outing as of late) way more than I trust both teams to combine for 157.5. So let’s back Mizzou on their team total. You can find -111. It’s good up to -117

Official Pick: Missouri Team Total OVER 80.5 (-111)

Play Rating: 2-Star