NBA Eastern Conference Finals Best Bet (5/31/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | May 31, 2025 | 3:25 P.M. CST
Yesterday’s Quick Summary: A rocking chair winner with Aliyah Boston OVER 14.5 points last night. Boston came out of the gate on fire, scoring 10 points in the first quarter. However, as I mentioned in the post, she loves to get in foul trouble. She picked up back-to-back fouls (her 2nd and 3rd) with over 7 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter. So instead of having a shot to get there in the first half, Boston was forced to sit the rest of the 1st half. She then picked up her fourth foul midway through the 3rd and sat for an even longer stretch. Now we were able to get there with over 7 minutes to go in the game. But, if Boston had stayed out of foul trouble, we likely get there in the first half, and she probably goes for somewhere north of 20 points. Regardless, a nice sweat-free winner, and we start a new streak!!
Best Bet Tonight:
Indiana Pacers 1st Half Team Total OVER 57.5 (-114)
This is a tremendous spot for a Pacers team that has been an offensive juggernaut in these playoffs. While I don’t think Indiana is a legitimate title contender, they’ve proved to be good enough to run through the East (with a lot of injury luck as well). That said, they are likely the 2nd best offensive team in the playoffs (behind only OKC). And they’ve been particularly good at home. I’ve won 4 times in the playoffs backing the Pacers 1st Half TT Over; it’s all about pick spots, and this is a GREAT one for us to back Indiana.
Through the playoffs as a whole, Indiana has averaged 116.9 points per game (3rd best and 2nd best of the remaining teams behind only OKC). So why are we taking them in the first half? Well let’s break it down. The Pacers have played 15 playoff games this post-season, and they are 8-7 to this number (needing to score at least 58). They are averaging 58.7 points per first half in the playoffs as a whole (61.1 in home games). Neither of those indicate a big edge over a 15 game sample. However, when we dive deeper, we find this specific spot is exactly when the Pacers DO go over early in the game. The Pacers are 5-2 to the OVER to this number in the first halves in home games. Although that’s a small sample size, we have seen them consistently play better early in games at home. Additionally, when the Pacers are coming off a scoring less than 58 in a first half the previous game, they are 5-1 to the over in the first half in the next game. The only time they went UNDER was against Cleveland in game 3 at home. That was a MUST WIN game for Cleveland’s season, and the Pacers came out flat, like they knew they had the series in the bag. And, the Pacers scoring average in first halves goes up to 62.8 points in those games. When you go a step further, TWICE this post season the Pacers have scored LESS than 58 points in a first half AND ALSO lost the game outright. The two games following those performances, the Pacers have come out and LIT IT UP the first half of the following game. Both those games were also at home (which tonight’s game is). They scored 80 and 63 in those two datapoints, easily going over the number we need tonight and averaging a whopping 71.5 points in the first half of those two outings.
So we have a perfect spot here for the Pacers. They also know that this is an absolute MUST WIN for them, as they do NOT want to have to go back to New York for a game 7, having blown a 3-1 series lead. All of the sudden they would be an underdog. And when you think back to game 3, where they held a 21 point first half lead, it would be mentally devastating to try to recover from that and win on the road in a game 7 against Jalen Brunson and company. My model has the Pacers going OVER 57.5 points 73.5% of the time. The implied odds at -114 are 53.3%. So we have a projected edge of +20.2%. That’s quite a massive edge this late in the playoffs. For that reason we are backing the Pacers. And, we are going to make it a 3-star, as that level of an edge is hard to pass up this late in the playoffs.
Official Play: Indiana Pacers First Half Team Total OVER 57.5 (-114)
Play Rating: 3-Star
