Blog
College Basketball Best Bets (1/3/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 3rd, 2023 | 5:15 P.M. CST
College Hoops Ramping Up For Conference Play:
We’ve got 3 college basketball best bets today. On the website’s official picks for College Hoops this year we are off to a BLISTERING HOT start at 17-4 (80.1%). I would say a couple things before I get to the best bets. First, I have consistently picked at 70%+ in college basketball REGULAR SEASON the past 3 years. This year has been abnormally good to me this early in the season. Conference play is when I really make my big moves and get hot. Hopefully we can just have an incredible run this season, BUT the odds are that this is coming back to earth. The sample size over the past 3 years (not including this season), is 72% in college hoops regular season. Considering we’re at 80+ we are going to likely see some regression soon. Secondly, this time of year can be tricky. As those of you who follow my plays know, my college basketball bets often focus on home teams. However, during this time, students are not all back on campus, and crowds/home court can be much more difficult to predict. Nonetheless, let’s try to keep it rolling tonight (and yes we’re rolling with home teams tonight still).
Best Bet #1 (Play of the Night): Miami Florida +1.5 vs. Clemson
Miami has been a very odd team this year, coming off their cinderella Final Four Run last season in the NCAA Tourney. The Canes currently sit 10-2 overall (1-0 ACC play), unranked in the AP Top 25, despite a pretty decent start to the season. They were ranked in the top 25 for much of the start of the season, following a 5-0 start. However, they suffered tough loss to Kentucky on the road (by 22 points) after the hot start. They dropped again after a 27-point loss to unranked Colorado a few games later. The weird thing about this team, though, is that they have played 12 total games this season, and only 3 of those contests were settled by single digits (either way). They’ve pretty much either blown their opponent out, or they’ve gotten blown out. The closest game they’ve played was a 6-point victory against FIU in the third game of the season.
The worry when looking at this game would be that Miami has stepped up in class twice (UK & Colorado) and they got smoked both times. That’s a valid concern here, as the Canes did not look good in either contest. However, this is a big game for Miami, they’re in the comfort of their own gym, and they’re coming off some rest from the break.
Additionally, both teams are elite shooting the ball, but the Canes shoot it better than the Tigers, ranking 5th nationally in 3 point percentage. In college basketball, role players tend to really shoot the ball better at home, and I think that’s going to play a factor in this one.
Lastly, when you look at Clemson’s schedule, they’ve played three true road games so far this season. Their most recent road game resulted in their lone loss of the season (a 2-point loss to Memphis). They did go on the road earlier in the year and beat Alabama in their own building, a tough place to play. However, that Bama team is WAY down this year from what they’ve been in years past. The other road win came at a Pittsburgh team that’s one of the worst offensive teams in the country. Pittsburgh still put up 70 on the Tigers in that loss. I think Miami is going to do whatever they want on offense in this matchup. They are going to make a ton of threes, and they’re going to force Clemson to play from behind, something they haven’t had to do much this season. Additionally, Miami’s athletes should give Clemson’s guards some trouble here, forcing a large amount of turnovers. In their last road game against a superior team athletically (Memphis), Clemson turned the ball over 15 times, largely because they couldn’t handle the quickness & speed that Memphis had on the court. Miami will do similar things to them here, and it will give Clemson trouble. The place won’t be rocking as it would be if this game were played a couple weeks later, but I still think the Canes at home are a great play. Give me Miami in this spot all day.
Official Pick: Miami Hurricanes +1.5 (Play to PK)
Best Bet #2: Providence -5.5 vs. Seton Hall
This is a spot play pretty much. Seton Hall has not been very good this season as a whole, but they’ve been horrific on the road. I’ve watched this team play multiple times, and they just really struggle to score the basketball. They are getting too much credit analytically, due to that dominating win they had over UCONN. That game was at Seton Hall, it was a rivalry game, and UCONN’s best big man (Donavan Clingan) got hurt early in the first half, causing UCONN to have to really shift their gameplan & rotations.
Seton Hall followed up that performance by going on the road against Xavier, where they were absolutely dismantled by a team that has multiple mid-major losses on their resume this season. I guess the thought process is Seton Hall is inconsistent, and there’s a decent chance they show well in this spot. But the truth is they’re a bad road team, playing against a team that has been elite at home. Providence has won 10 in a row at home going into this matchup, and 7 of those games have been by double digits. I wouldn’t play this above 6, and I’m only going 1-unit because of the winter break aspect to the homecourt advantage. However, I still like the Friars in this spot to cover a relatively small number. To me, the Friars would be a 5 point favorite on a neutral against SH, so let’s take the value here.
Official Pick: Providence Friars -5.5
Best Bet #3: UCLA -4 vs. Stanford
Basically, we’re going to bet a buy low, sell high spot on this one, along with some home court advantage. Stanford played it’s best game of the season a few nights ago (maybe the best game they’ve played in a decade), putting up a 100-piece on the #4 ranked Arizona Wildcats at home. I sure do believe in HC advantage being a massive factor in college hoops, but that one even surprised me. I thought Arizona was maybe the second best team in the country before that matchup, and Stanford just annihilated them.
Sell High on the Cardinal: The problem for Stanford is that on the season they shoot just above 37% from the three point line. In that game against Arizona they where a whopping 16/25 (64%). They were absolutely unconscience from beyond the arc all night long, and it’s damn near impossible to beat a team at home shooting like that. When you come off a game shooting that incredibly well, beating the #4 team in the country when nobody gave you a shot, it’s a clear let down spot here to say the least. I think Stanford stinks it up in this one, and even if they don’t there is zero chance they shoot it even close to as well as they did against the Wildcats.
Buy Low on the Bruins: On the other side, it’s a been a very weird year for Mick Cronin’s team. They started off the season with a pretty good showing in Maui, going 1-2, but really competing in their two losses to teams who are going to be Elite 8/Final 4 contenders this season. Their young guards played exceptionally well, and they looked like a team that had a good shot to contend in the Pac-12 this season. However, since then they’ve done nothing but struggle. They’re coming off a tough 5-point loss at Oregon, and they’ve now dropped 6 of their last 8 games. During that tough stretch they even lost to a low-major team in Cal State Northridge at home. Now they go back home, in what looks like a must win game. This team pretty much has to start turning it around right now if they want a shot at playing in mid-march. The positive news for the Bruins is this could be a perfect spot to get right, getting an overconfident Stanford team coming into your building, knowing that you’ve been struggling. If nothing else, UCLA has a talent edge in this one, and even though they’ve had a rough year, Cronnin is still an elite coach. Give me the Bruins in this one, as we’re getting a depressed price due to the recent results of each team. This number should be closer to 6.5.
Official Pick: UCLA Bruins -4
Best Bets 12/30/23 (CBB, CFB Bowl Games, NFL)
Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 30th, 2023 | 10:33 A.M. CST
I apologize for the late post, as some of these games start soon, but I want them to at least be posted on here before kickoff so that they will go down on my official record & be tracked.
College Basketball Picks
Syracuse -1.5 vs. Pittsburgh
Marquette -3.5 vs. Creighton
These are simply two home teams playing conference games. I’m going to take 99% of these power 5 teams at home when the line is less between -5 and +8. In Marquettes case, they are actually the better team, and they are at home. Syracuse and Pittsburgh are relatively equal, but we have a big home court advantage.
College Football Picks
Ole Miss +4.5 vs. Penn State (Chick Fil A Peach Bowl)
Ole Miss has a MASSIVE coaching advantage in this one. Lane Kiffin with a month to prepare, in a game that is pretty meaningful to his program - you are going to get a GREAT offensive gameplan for the Rebels ssssin this spot. The only question is can their defense get stops. The good thing is, Penn State’s offense is horrific, and Drew Allar has been awful whenever he’s stepped up in class this season. On the other hand James Franklin has just been terrible in big games. He’s not been great in big time bowl games either, especially not in meaningful bowl games. I think Kiffin has a massive edge over Franklin. One coach is innovative, smart, and will have his team ready. The other coach is a bafoon who has been lucky to keep his job this long. Give me Ole Miss with the points in this spot and sprinkle some on the moneyline at +165
Wyoming -3.5 vs. Toledo (Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl)
Wyoming is playing this game for their head coach, Craig Bohl. Bohl is retiring at the conclusion of this game after a storied career in college football. He won 3 national titles at the FCS level with North Dakota State. He’s done an incredible job with this Wyoming program in his tenure as well. His guys love him, and they will be playing super hard to win this game for their leader. Additionally, Toledo, who has been really solid this year, lost their QB (Dequan Finn) to the transfer portal, and they will be starting their backup QB. Lastly, I just think there is a matchup advantage in the trenches here for Wyoming. They have the better offensive and defensive lines, and I think it’s going to be tough for Toledo to hang in this game over the course of 60 minutes.
NFL Pick
NFL Teaser (2 Team, 6 Point): Cowboys +.5 to Rams -.5
I like the best bet teaser that I gave out on Thursday better than this one (Browns to Chiefs), but I still like this one too. Dallas is just in a great spot here, off two losses, back at home against a bad defense. This is also a terrible spot for the Lions, coming off winning their first divisional title in 30 years. They also should’ve lost last week to a team starting Nick Mullins at QB. Give me the Cowboys here in a get right spot.
The Rams just have much more to play for in this game. The Giants definitely upgrade by going to Tyrod Taylor over Tommy Devito’s bum ass. But, I still like the Rams here. There is no team playing better offensively right now than the L.A. Rams, and they are doing enough defensively to win games. They’ve won 5 of their last 6, and this is a massive game for their playoff hopes. The Giants have no incentive to win this game, as they really just want a better draft pick. It doesn’t mean they won’t play hard, but the motivation factor strongly favors the Rams. Lastly, it’s in New York where the weather isn’t usually great, however there seems to be clear skies in the forecast. That strongly favors the Rams pass oriented offense. give me the Rams here.
All bets today will be 2 units
NFL Teaser of the Week
Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 28, 2023 | 5:25 P.M. CST
NFL Teaser of the week is going to be a Thursday game paired with a Sunday game. I think there’s some great value on some teaser legs this week.
NFL Teaser of the Week: Browns -1 to Chiefs -1
Leg 1: Cleveland Browns -1 vs. New York Jets
Summary: This is just a significantly superior team in the Cleveland Browns taking on a Jets team that has really struggled this season, especially offensively. The Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett I truly believe is the worst Offensive Coordinator in the history of the NFL. Pair him with Trevor Simien at QB and it’s an absolute disaster waiting to happen. The Jets offense looked good last week behind their one true weapon, Breece Hall. However, that game was a home game against a horrific Washington Commander’s Defense. I don’t see Hall doing that against a much superior Cleveland defense. Add to that the fact that the Browns “D” has been significantly better at home this season. The Jets will put together a few drives throughout the game, largely because the Browns are prone to giving up explosive plays. But, I just don’t see how the Jets have any sort of consistent success offensively.
Therefore, the only way this game is relatively close is the Jets defense. Flacco has been prone to interceptions since taking over as QB for the Browns, so there definitely could be some short fields for the Jets in this one. I actually think with both QBs prone to TO’s that there is likely to be more points than expected. That said, I wouldn’t trust either offense to just dominate the game.
Overall there’s a big coaching mismatch here, there’s a big talent gap here, and there’s a giant motivation discrepancy here. The Jets have no incentive to win this game, while the Browns are playing to lock up a playoff spot. They also have incentive to win in the sense that a win likely cements them as the #5 seed in the AFC, which is a huge advantage compared to the #6 seed. The #5 seed is likely to face the winner of the AFC South (Jags, Texans, or Colts), whereas the #6 seed is going to likely have to go to Kansas City in the first round. Although the Chiefs have struggled as of late, nobody is going to prefer playing in Arrowhead in January as opposed to Jacksonville, Houston, or Indi.
Give me the Browns in this teaser leg. I don’t think it’s particularly close, but if it is, they should pull out the outright victory either way.
Leg 2: Kansas City Chiefs -1. vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Summary:
Once again we have a big mismatch in terms of talent. Yes, the Chiefs have struggled offensively as of late, and I don’t see them as the same team as years past. However, this is a GREAT get right spot for that offense. The Bengals are bottom 10 in the NFL in almost every significant defensive statistic. They’re horrible against both the run and the pass, their bottom 10 in EPA, Success Rate allowed, yards per play, yards per game, and points per game. They also don’t have anyone in the secondary who will be able to take away Travis Kelce. With how it’s gone for Kelce and Mahomes the last few weeks, I’d be very surprised if they didn’t both have HUGE games against this much maligned Bengals defense. Last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers were down to a third string QB in Mason Rudolph when playing the Bengals. That defense allowed George Pickens to go for nearly 200 yards and 2 TDs. Isaiah Paceko is currently questionable, but he tends to fight through minor injuries and play whenever possible. If he goes, which I think he will, he is in line for a big day as well. There should be plenty of points coming for this Chiefs offense.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs Defense is one thing that’s much improved for this team. They have been outstanding this season, and this is by far the best defense Kansas City has had in the Mahomes era. The Bengals on the other hand, have definitely looked better than expected since Joe Burrow’s season came to an end with a wrist injury. However, large portions of the Bengals offensive success have come in two areas: in home games, and against bad defenses. This matchup features neither of the two, as the Bengals are facing a top 10 defense on the road.. Last week on the road against a defense that is not nearly as good as the Chiefs (the Steelers), Browning really struggled, throwing three interceptions. The Bengals were never in the game, they struggled to protect Browning, and when they did have any sort of offensive success, they stalled inside the 10 yard line. I’d be very surprised if the Bengals have any sort of consistent success on the offensively here.
Overall this is an easy teaser leg for me. The Chiefs need this win big time. They don’t lose back to back games often, and they have been historically really good at home in this time of the year. They have a home game here against an inferior opponent. Look for them to bounce back in a big way in this spot. Give me the Chiefs here BIG.
OFFICIAL PICK: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Cleveland Browns -1 | Kansas City Chiefs -1
Units: 2 Units
CFB Bowl Game Best Bets
Author: Dylan Lieck | 12/23/23 | 11:33 P.M. CST
In this quick post I’m just going to give you all my 4 favorite bowl picks so far. Two of these are this afternoon, however both of those have already been posted with detailed write ups 2 days ago. If you are looking for more information on the games check out those posts.
4 Best Bets: Bowl Games
1) Utah State -1 vs. Georgia State: play to -2.5
2) Air Force +2 vs. James Madison: play to Pick ‘Em
3) Oklahoma State +2 vs. Texas A&M: play to Pick ‘Em
4) SMU vs. Boston College UNDER 50: MAYBE a play to 49. Id probably pass at anything worse than 50. Definitely nothing below 49.
I’ve mentioned this previously, but with all the variables that go into bowl games these days, these bowl games can have lots of variance. Therefore I strongly suggest limiting your bets to ONE unit. Whether you’re playing my plays or your own. There’s always more opportunities for wagers, and you don’t want to get in a big hole on games with this much variance. For reference I may put 1 to 3 units on any given college basketball play. Same for the NFL. These bowl games my biggest bet was 1 unit. As always good luck, and have a happy holidays!!
Dylan Lieck Official Rated Plays:
1) College Football: 29-24 (54.7%)
2) NFL: 12-8-1 (60%)
3) College Basketball: 15-4 (78.9%)
Overall Record: 56-36-1 (60.9%)
Best Bet: Armed Forces Bowl (12/23/23)
Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 22, 2023 | 3:21 A.M. CST
Armed Forces Bowl
Game: James Madison Dukes (11-1) vs. Air Force Falcons (8-4)
Date: 12/23/23
Time: 2:30 P.M. CST
Spread: James Madison -2
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
Weather (Predictive): 62 Degrees, Sunny
Pick: Air Force +2
Market Movement:
There has been significant sharp money on Air Force, however that money did come in mostly at a bigger number. The line opened with James Madison a 4.5 point favorite. A clear signal of the sharp money on Air Force is the line movement through the key number of 3. So we saw professionals hit this game at +4.5, +4, +3.5, +3, and now even some support under a field goal. Some of the sharper shops are currently trending towards 1.5. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line close closer to a Pick ‘Em.
Matchup:
If you were to look at this game from a pure matchup standpoint, I actually would give the edge to James Madison. They’ve been elite this season defensively, especially up front where they really force teams out of their running game. That would not bode well for Air Force, as the Falcons obviously run the triple option. Luckily for Air Force, this game is not purely about the matchups, but rather about the key players that possibly could miss the game for JMU.
Coaching Departures for James Madison:
Head Coach Curt Cignetti departs James Madison for Indiana, which is a great hire for the Hoosiers as Tom Allen departs. Cignetti is not the only coach to leave, though, as he is taking a good portion of the staff with him. That includes the Offensive Coordinator, the Defensive Coordinator, and the QB Coach. In fact, James Madison is so short handed from the coaching departures that they had to hire 5 temporary coaches just to coach the bowl game. The Offensive Line coach will be the acting head coach for this matchup.
This is a huge issue for James Madison in this one, and it’s significant to the handicap. You have a team who accomplished a lot this year, but they didn’t get to play for their conference championship, which was the ultimate goal for this team. Despite being able to finish 11-1, they didn’t get to play for a New Years Six Bowl. Now they have to get up to take on a super boring Air Force team in the Armed Forces Bowl? Add to that the fact that they have a makeshift coaching staff with a head coach who’s never led a team before. It’s a terrible spot for JMU
Key Departures (Transfer Portal & Opt Outs)
James Madison:
Offense: Starting QB, Starting RB, Best WR, Starting LT
Defense: Two Starting LBs, Two Starting Defensive Lineman, Starting CB
The number of guys leaving JMU is staggering, but it’s to be expected with the departure of the coach as well as the success of this team this season
The one thing to keep an eye on for this game: A lot of the guys who are entering the portal are claiming they are still going to play in the bowl game. The problem with this for JMU is that it’s really hard to believe those guys are going to be motivated to go all out here. It’s a meaningless, shitty bowl game. I just don’t see those guys risking injury and their shot at playing a big time school in order to win the Armed Forces Bowl. Therefore, even if these guys do play, I still think the fact that they are departing and currently looking for other schools makes me believe that they will not be 100% focused on winning this game
Air Force:
Air Force’s Starting RB is the only key departure for the Falcons. That is to be expected, as the service academies often don’t have the same issues with losing players to the portal that other schools have
Zach Larrier:
A very important aspect of this game is the fact that Air Force is set to get their starting QB, Zach Larrier, back for this bowl game. Larrier was outstanding this season, and he actually gave Air Force a legitimate passing threat (something they are not used to having). Larrier suffered multiple injuries towards the end of the season, and that was a large reason for Air Force’s struggles down the stretch. In games that Larrier started and finished, the Falcons lost just one game this season. Without Larrier in the lineup, the Falcons looked like a very subpar team.
He’s massive to their success, and getting him back could legitimately be the difference between a win and loss here. I do think he will hit some big explosives in the pass game against a JMU defense that will very likely be selling out against the run.
Buy Low Spot:
The last important point I’ll make for this game is that this is perfect buy low spot on Air Force. This is a team that started the season 8-0 and was ranked in the top 25. Not only were the playing great on the offensive side, but the defense was outstanding through the first 8 games. Once Larrier went down, though, both sides of the ball dropped off. Likely partially because without Larrier, the offensive drives were much shorter, and therefore the defense was on the field much more.
Overall though, this is the absolute bottom of the barrel in terms of price for Air Force. I mean, what is this line after Air Force starts 8-0? I can tell you that JMU is absolutely not favored.
Service Academies In Bowl Games:
In the recent past, service academies have been outstanding in Bowl games, both straight up and against the spread. Why? Because in a day and age where motivation is a question mark for some of these teams (with so many guys hitting the transfer portal), you never have to worry about the focus or effort of a service academy. Air Force themselves has won and covered 4 of their last 5 bowl games. Army has won 4 bowl games in a row straight up. And, Navy has covered 5 of their last 6 bowl game appearances. Clearly the service academies have a good track record in modern day bowl games, and it’s no different in this one.
Pick:
I think Air Force, when healthy, is the better team. Add to that the bandaid coaching staff and a boatload of players set to leave JMU following the bowl game and you have a line that is a bit off, given the return of the Falcon’s top QB. Thus, we’re getting an absolutely awesome price here with them sitting as two point dogs. I really would’ve loved this pick if we could’ve gotten +3 earlier this month, but that is obviously long gone. I still think there is value on the Falcons as a short dog, So give me Air Force plus the points in this spot. I would play them up to a Pick "‘Em.
Official Pick: Air Force +2
Best Bet: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (12/23/23)
Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 21, 2023 | 10:01 P.M. CST
As mentioned in the Bowl Picks Summary, make sure to understand that we do have an edge in these picks. And they are all things that I’ve bet myself. However, there is a significant amount of variance in these bowl games as it’s very difficult to measure motivation of different teams. There tend to be some bad beats each bowl season, as things can turn around in a hurry. All that said, let’s dive into this pick.
Game: Utah State Aggies (6-6) vs. Georgia State Panthers (6-6)
Date: 12/23/23
Time: 2:30 P.M. CST
Spread: Utah State -1
Location: Boise, Idaho
Weather (Predictive): 42 Degrees, Sunny
Pick: Utah State -1
Market Moves:
This line opened with Georgia State as a short favorite (GAST -2.5). We swung a full 5 points and got as high as Utah State -2.5. There was a lot of professional support for the Aggies here, but for some reason we’ve seen some buy back on Georgia State in the past 24 hours. The line moved back to Utah State -1. I’m not quite sure why the move all of the sudden, as there’s been no significant changes to either team, and there’s not really a great middle opportunity considering the line has never touched 3 either way. Regardless, I agree with the EARLY money on the Aggies, rather than the most recent move.
Matchup:
Neither Utah State nor Georgia State comes into this off great regular seasons, as both teams finished the season 6-6. However, one team clearly comes into this game playing much better football, and that is Utah State. The Aggies started off the season extremely poorly, which was expected, going 3-5 in their first 8 games. A lot of their roster from a good team in 2022 was depleted from the transfer portal and the expectations were not very high. However, the team rallied and finished winning 3 of their last 4 games to get bowl eligible. Oddly enough, the Aggies don’t have a bad loss on their schedule this season in terms of level of competition. All 6 of their losses came against teams who finished the season with winning records. The Aggies offense really got going in their last 4 games, scoring 32+ points in 3 of their last 4 games.
On the other side, Georgia State comes into this bowl matchup in extremely bad form. After a blistering start to the season (6-1 their first 7 games), they finished on a 5-game losing streak. 4 of those 5 losses came by 17 points or more, including 3 losses by 28+ points. The Panthers lone loss by less than 17 points in that stretch came in the final game of the season. In that game at Old Dominion, the Panthers led by 14 points going into the fourth quarter. They also led by 10 points with under 2 minutes to play, yet they inexplicably lost to the Monarchs on the final play of the game, 25-24. This team is on a completely different trajectory than their opponent, as they have been playing their worst football of the season as of late. You also have a situation in which Georgia State gave up AT LEAST 42 points in 4 of their final 5 contests (the lone game that didn’t they still gave up 25). Match that with a Utah State offense that has been scoring in the 30s and 40s most of the second half of the season, and that was against better competition than Georgia State. If this was the only thing to take into consideration, and both teams were at full strength, I’d still lean Utah State. But let’s take a look at the key departures.
Key Departures (Transfer Portal & Opt Outs):
Georgia State has been hit HARD by the transfer portal, and it has depleted their roster for this bowl matchup.
Georgia State:
RB Marcus Carroll: 274 Rush, 1,350 Yards, 13 TDs + 23 catches, 234 yards (7th in the nation in rush yards) - transferring to Missouri
GAST’s backup RB is also transferring, so they’ll be down to their 3rd string RB
WR1 Robert Lewis: 70 Catches, 877 Yards, 7 TDs (Leads Team in All 3 Categories) - Lewis is by far their best WR and he’s gone to Auburn
RT Montavious Cunningham: Their best offensive lineman hit the portal and is going to Virginia Tech
CB Bryquice Brown: 34 Tackles, 6 Pass Defenses, 1 INT (Led Team in Pass Defenses) - Brown is their best CB and he’s gone to Boston College
Utah State
S Devin Dye: 81 Tackles, 7 Pass Defenses, 2 INTs, 1 Fumble Recovery (Leads Team in Pass Defenses)
Notes: Notice that not only is Georgia State losing significant production from their team, but also the quality of schools those players are going to. All four of their major losses (RB, WR, RT, & CB) are going to Power 5 schools. Thus, the amount of talent being lost from Georgia State for this game is very significant. Also note that even with those quality players, this team struggled significantly down the stretch. Thus, it’s fair to question the ability of this Georgia State team to play well in this bowl game.
Utah State QB Situation:
Utah State loses only ONE key player from its roster to the transfer portal, and that’s their starting Safety. He’s a very good secondary piece, but compared to the losses for Georgia State, it’s really not close. You’re taking away their best 3 skill position guys, as well as the best Lineman on the offensive side of the ball. They didn’t lose much on defense, but their defense has been really bad this season, and losing their top CB won’t help.
The only reason this line isn’t bigger is because of the QB situation at Utah State. Both the starter & the backup are injured and won’t be playing in the bowl game for the Aggies, so 3rd string QB Levi Williams will get the start. However, if you are familiar with Williams, you’d know that he’s a solid QB. Williams started multiple games at Wyoming over the course of his career, and he has had success at times throughout his career. He started in this very Bowl Game a few years ago for Wyoming, a game in which he led the Cowboys to a Bowl Game victory while rushing for 3 TDs. He also started the final game of the season for the Aggies at New Mexico, a game where he led the Aggies to their 6th win of the season to get them bowl eligible. In that game, the Aggies offense put up 44 points (31 in regulation, 13 in the overtime periods. Williams was 16/27, threw for 198 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. He also ran it 25 times for 153 yards and 3 TDs. That is the key element here: Levi Williams’ legs. He’s a very good runner & a true dual threat. That’s going to cause big problems for Georgia State, and I believe Williams will have a big time day on the ground.
Lastly, Williams has already announced that following this school year, he will be enlisting, attempting to join the Navy Seals, to serve his country. This kid is going to give everything he has in his final collegiate game after a 5 year career, and we KNOW that we’re going to get his best effort. Therefore, I really wouldn’t downgrade Utah State here at all for having a third string as their starter.
Location Advantage:
Of course Idaho is significantly closer to Utah than it is to Georgia, so the Aggies may have a few more fans there than the Panthers. However, I highly doubt there’s going to be any attendance records set in this bowl game. That said, the physical location is not the advantage that Utah State has in this one. Rather, it’s the color of the turf. Yup, you heard that right. This game is being played on Boise State’s homefield, home of the infamous blue turf. While it’s not a giant advantage, Utah State is familiar playing on this field, as they have faced Boise State in their home stadium on a usual basis (they are in the same conference). Georgia State on the other hand has never played on the blue turf, and it’s definitely possible that this could play a factor, especially early in the game. Again, I’m not saying that this is a massive factor in the handicap of this game, but it definitely is something to consider. And, when we are looking for edges wherever we can find them, they start to add up when you look at the entirety of the situation here. Less travel, likely more fans, and more familiarity with the environment equal all positive factors for Utah State.
Pick:
Overall, I love Utah State in this game. I think there is a ton of value still now that the line has shortened back to -1. I would play the Aggies all the way to -2.5. I truly thought the line would close closer to 3, but for some reason it’s gotten very short. I make this game Utah State -2 on a neutral field, with both teams fully healthy. With all the key departures for Georgia State and the lack of a downgrade for Utah State’s QB, I’ve adjusted my power ratings a full 2 points, leaving my number at Utah State -4. Therefore we’re happy to lay the 1 here. So sit back, enjoy watching the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on that beautiful (but really disgusting) blue turf, and line your wallets with a few bucks at the end of the day. Best of luck and Merry Christmas!!
Official Pick: Utah State -1
NFL Picks (12/17/23)
Author: Dylan Lieck | December 16th, 2023 | 11:11 P.M. CST
We’re already 1-0 on the week 11-8 on the season. Definitely been a down year, but we’re back in the green with a win today (Thank Detroit Lions). Easy winner. Let’s keep this streak going and get another win with our teaser of the week.
NFL Best Bet that won yesterday: Detroit Lions -4.5
We started up 21-0 and it was never really a competitive game
NFL Teaser of the Week
2-Team 6-Point Teaser: Chiefs -2.5 to Rams -.5
Chiefs -2.5
This is a simple value bet. We’re getting the Chiefs a a DIRT cheap price here, basically because they’ve lost the last two games, and because they’ve not looked good on offense for the entirety of the year. Look, I get that the Patriots won last week. I get that the Chiefs have looked really subpar so far this season. I get that this game is in New England and the defense of the Pats has been playing really well. But I’d have a really hard time selling anyone on taking the Patriots -2.5. So on the value side of things we’re getting the Chiefs to basically win the game. The Chiefs have lost two in a row, but if you look back, that is the first time the Chiefs have lost two in a row since week 3 of 2021. It’s almost unheard of for the Chiefs to lose 3 in a row. And it isn’t like they are playing Buffalo or Philadelphia here. They’re playing one of the worst teams in the league.
Also the Patriots are just horrible. Yes they won last week against the Steelers, but Pittsburgh is an absolute fraud, and we saw that again today as they lost to the Colts. The Steelers spotted the Pats 21 points in that game and still almost found a way to lose. There is no way you are going to convince me there’s any value on the Pats at +8.5, so getting them to 2.5 is great.
Obviously we’re going through the key numbers of BOTH 7 and 3, so it’s a great teaser leg number wise. We basically check all the boxes here. I don’t love it being on the road, but I’m just never passing this number up for a teaser leg. I’d give this a 94% chance of hitting, significantly above the break-even line for teasers. No Brainer here.
Rams -.5
Look I don’t LOVE this leg, as we are only going through ONE key number, and we’re taking a team who won a tough game last week. But this is the Rams season. If LA loses this game, they are essentially dead in the NFC playoff race. But a win gives them a great shot to get in the playoffs. This is a MASSIVE game for them, and it’s clear the last 5 weeks that the Rams really do want to get in.
Stafford is playing at a super high level right now, and the Commanders secondary has been horrific this season. We watched those Rams WRs TORCH a very good Ravens secondary last week in bad weather. What are they going to do to one of the worst defenses in the league? This comes down to one thing: Pressure. If the Commanders can’t get pressured, they are going to get absolutely diced up in the secondary.
We’re going to roll with the Rams here in this spot, at home, in a must win. The Commanders have nothing to play for. Sam Howell loves taking sacks and turning it over, so I see Aaron Donald having a field day here.
Official Picks for the Teaser: Chiefs -2.5 | Rams -.5
Units: 2
College Basketball Updated Record + CBB Betting Tips
Author: Dylan Lieck | December 16th, 2023 | 10:55 P.M. CST
We’ve had a fantastic start to the season in college basketball. Good day yesterday going 1-0-1 in college basketball, and we also hit on our NFL play with the Lions -4.5. Had a rough push on the Memphis Tigers -2 due to some missed free throws late, but I’m not going to ever complain about a 2-0 day. I would say this is an unusual start, but in all honesty, I picked at over 70% last year in college basketball REGULAR SEASON. I did not do nearly as well in the conference tournaments nor the NCAA tournament. I’ve come to learn lately that the post season tournaments are becoming more and more unpredictable. My goal this season will be to make as much profit as possible in the regular season, and then pick my spots in the post season on some really good positions.
Season Summary As of December 16th, 2023
Overall College Basketball Record: 15-4 (78.9%, +21.2 Units) | Parlays = +15.0 Units
Last weekend in college basketball I went 4-4 on Saturday, however I hit a 3-team moneyline parlay that paid 15 to 1. Overall College Record thus far on straight bets is 15-4. Add those two together and you have a +36.2 unit start to the season if you have followed all my plays.
As of right now all my plays are free, so enjoy them. However, if you are making money on my plays and you’d like to tip me, my venmo is: @dylanlieck
Understand that at some point in the future my plays will cost money, but for now you can enjoy the for free, and hopefully make money.
College Basketball Tips For December/Early January:
Because my goal is to help people improve their sportsbetting I just wanted to provide a few tips for betting college basketball the rest of the season. Today’s tip is going to be regarding betting these games in the middle of December and into January. Normally I would say 90-95% of my bets in college basketball focus on finding value in home teams. Home court value in college basketball is under rated by the market, and still has yet to adjust. It’s the most valuable advantage to a point spread in any sport. The only time I like betting road teams, is when the market has significantly over valued a team and you can just get massive value in the spread on the road OR if you have a very senior laden team playing in locations that they are very familiar. For example, if a Big 10 Team has 3 senior starters who have been at the same school all 4 years and they’ve played in that road environment 3 times previous years and had previous success.
Overall though, I rarely take road teams. However, if you noticed I only took 2 games today, whereas last Saturday I took 8 games. Why? One BIG reason is because when you hit this time in December, you get a lot of student fan bases who are not going to these games, because they go home for the Holidays. So it’s vitally important to understand that home court could matter LESS in this stretch of games with 70% of students gone. Now that’s not the case for all schools. For example, today I took two teams at home (Michigan State and Memphis), both of which tend to sell out their arenas regardless of time of the year. One good thing to do, is to check attendance at home games for that team in previous years during mid to late December. Michigan State and Memphis both tend to have GREAT homecourt advantages regardless of time of year. So both of those were play ons for me. But, some schools have attendance that significantly declines during this time (for example; Florida State yesterday).
Overall, it’s just another important factor to look at. You always want to be looking for an edge, and for things to help you be better and sports betting, as opposed to betting games blindly with less information. Good luck to everyone this Holiday season, and check back soon for my other NFL Picks (we are already 1-0 this weekend!!)
College Basketball & NFL Picks (12/16/23)
Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 16th, 2023 | 12:18:19 P.M. CST
Apologies for the late post, but none of these games will start for at least 45 minutes. Let’s start with college hoops.
There’s a ton of games today but not a ton I absolutely love. There are 2 plays that I do like quite a bit. I’m not going to give too long of an explanation due to lack of time
CBB Picks:
1) Michigan State +3 vs. Baylor (2U)
2) Memphis -2 vs. Clemson (2U)
NFL Picks:
Detroit Lions -4.5 vs. Denver Broncos (1U)
NFL Best Bets (12/10/23)
Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 10th, 2023 | 10:38 A.M. CST
Here are my best bets for the NFL Sunday Slate for week 14. Enjoy!!
NFL Best Bet (Straight Bet): Chicago Bears +3.5 vs. Detroit Lions
I got this at 3.5 - A lot of books are trending to +3. If you see +3 I would buy the half a point if you can get it for -120
There is great value here at home. The Bears had the Lions beat a few weeks ago indoors on the road. This one is at home, with windy Conditions. Jared Goff is horrible in weather. Also Justin Fields and Matt Eberflaus are both playing and coaching for their jobs. This is an easy value pick here. Bears +3.5
Units = 2 Units
NFL Best Bet #2 (Total): Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts OVER 44
This total is WAY too low for two of the leagues worst defenses
Browning looked great last week, he will have tons of success against a porous Colts D and Minshew will be able to do just enough to keep this in range and keep the scoring going
Units = 2 Units
NFL Best 2-Team 6-Point Teaser: Ravens -1.5 to Bills +7.5
Ravens are one of the sharpest teaser legs of the week - love getting them through the 7 and 3
Bills above a TD has tons of value against a struggling KC Offense Give me this teaser = easily
Units = 2 Units
NFL Moneyline Dog Parlay of the Week:
Chicago Bears +160
New York Jets +155
Denver Broncos +125
This pays about 15 to 1 depending on where you shop your lines
College Basketball Best Bets (12/9/23)
Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 8th, 2023 | 11:44 P.M. CST
No long breakdowns for these games but a TON of great spots to take some home teams this Saturday in CBB. Here are some best bets for you
OFFICIAL College Basketball Bets Saturday:
9 Total Plays:
Georgetown +1.5 vs. Syracuse
Xavier +1.5 vs. Cincinnati
Liberty -4 vs. Grand Canyon
Utah +4 vs. BYU
LSU PK vs. Kansas State
Bama +6 vs. Purdue
Seton Hall -3 vs. Rutgers
Washington +4.5 vs. Gonzaga
Penn State +5 vs. Ohio State
All Plays = 1 Unit (Risk 1.1 to win 1.0 at -110 Juice)
As always play responsibly and get the best number
Fun little parlay: Washington, Penn State, Utah all moneyline in a parlay pays 15 to 1
Here are some leans (I did NOT play these, but just opinions or plays I considered, but ultimately passed on):
OU -3.5
Colorado State -5
Old Dominion +6.5
UNLV -1.5
Wyoming +1.5
East Carolina +5.5
Arizona -8.5
Villanova -5
Again I WOULD NOT bet these games - just some ones to monitor. They did NOT meet the criteria for placing a wager, whereas the 9 plays at the top of this did. I would say the strongest of these would probably be Colorado State. They were the closest to making my list.
College Basketball Best Bets (12/5/23)
Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 5th, 2023 | 3:18 P.M. CST
Here are some of my favorite plays for tonight’s slate of College Hoops Games.
Michigan State -4.5 vs. Wisconsin = 2 Units
Grand Canyon +2.5 vs. SDSU = 2 Units
Illinois +2.5 vs. FAU = 2 Units
UCONN -5.5 vs. UNC = 2 Units
Southern Illinois +1.5 vs. Oki State = 2 Units
Villanova -2. @ K-State = 1 Unit
BEST OF LUCK TONIGHT!!
College Basketball Best Bets (12/1/23)
Author: Dylan Lieck | 12/1/23 | 1:15 P.M. CST
We’ve been SMOKING hot to start the season in college basketball, and there’s two games I have my eye on here. I’m not going to give as in depth of a break down on these, but I have already played both myself, and I like both plays.
Best Bet of the Night:
Game: Purdue @ Northwestern
Line: Purdue -5.5
Total: 135.5
Location: Welsh-Ryan Arena (NW Home Court)
Time: 8:00 P.M. CST
Dylan’s Pick: Northwestern +5.5
Summary:
Look we’re just going to continue to play home teams all season. When teams go on the road, regardless of when it is, but ESPECIALLY in conference play, it’s extremely tough to win. It’s even harder to cover. So we’re going to traditionally take 95% of our plays on true home teams between +7 and -5. You’re getting Purdue at a highly inflated price, as they are currently 7-0. Northwestern has plenty of talent. And although their football team has no home field advantage, their gym can get quite wild. It’s going to be ROCKING tonight. Give me NW +5.5 all day
Official Pick: NW +5.5
Best Bet 2
Game: UCONN @ Kansas
Line: Kansas -3
Location: Alan Field House (KU Home Arena)
Time: 8:00 P.M. CST
Dylan’s Pick: Kansas -3
Summary:
Look once again, we’re getting a UCONN team who’s probably slightly better than Kansas on a neutral floor at -3. But we’re getting this when UCONN is missing one of their top freshman guards. And they’re playing their first true road game of the season at Alan Fieldhouse, one of the toughest places to play in the country. This is a much bigger game for Kansas, who got smacked by Marquette in Maui last time they played a top 10 team. So I’m sure Bill Self is going to have his guys ready to go. You also have a young KU team who is only getting better game to game. And as much as I can’t stand Kevin McCullers, he is playing some very good basketball.
Triston Newton, The PG for UCONN is the only way Kansas doesn’t win this game and cover. He’s a stud and he has the capability of dropping 30-40 on any given night. But Kansas at home, in front of that crowd, against UCONN in their first true road game? I’ll take KU -3.
Official Pick: KU -3
College Football Best Bet: Conference Title Games
Author: Dylan Lieck | 11/30/23 | 3:33 P.M. CST
College Football Best Bet: Conference Title Games
Game: Alabama vs. Georgia (SEC TITLE)
Line: Georgia -6 (Opened -4)
Total: 53
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Neutral)
Date: 12/2/23
Time: 3:00 P.M. CST
Official Pick: UNDER 53 (Play to 54.5)
Summary:
The reason I say play to 54.5 is because 52 is a very key number for totals in CFB, so if you are taking anything above 52 points, you are already through that key number of 52, then just take it at anything less than 3 points higher. Meaning 52.5-54.5 are pretty much the same number (not exactly but generally speaking 52 and 55 are more key than those in between it).
Overall I just think the market has reacted poorly to this game. Usually you will see me align my picks with the market 95%+ of the time. But I liked this when I saw the number open 56. I really thought it would get bet up higher than that, and yet it started to come down. I wanted to see how low it could get. I saw a 52.5 before buy back happened and I got in at 53. I think we sit 53.5 or 54 in most spots. Anyways, all of those numbers are WAY too low. Look these two offenses have been playing really good football, and neither defense has been close to the traditional Bama/Georgia games. This WILL be a high scoring game, you can bet on it, LITERALLY.
I know Bama squeaked by Auburn last week and didn’t look great offensively, but Auburn had been prepping for that game for 2 weeks straight. I think what Georgia will do is try to make Milroe beat them with his arm. However, as inaccurate as he is in the intermediate game, he’s gotten a lot better in the short and deep areas of the field. I’d be shocked to see him not have some success against a subpar Georgia defense. Georgia’s offense on the other hand, may be the best it’s been in years. They’ve been explosive throughout the season, going over 70% of their totals. I don’t see that changing here. Bama’s defense has been nothing to write home about. We saw Auburn have tons of success on the ground last week with a QB who literally cannot throw the ball. I think Georgia is going to have an absolute field day offensively. If you can get their point total at anything below 30.5 I think their team total is going to be somewhere in the 35-42 range. I do like Georgia to cover here, but I bet that at -4 early in the week and that number has gotten away from us. Let’s go with the total here. It’s going to be a shootout. So give me the OVER here and let’s cash one more ticket on this CFB season to go out with a bang, and another WINNING YEAR!!
Dylan’s Pick: Alabama vs. Georgia OVER 53 (play to 54.5)
NFL Teaser of the Week
Author: Dylan Lieck | 11/30/23 | 3:27 P.M. CST
NFL Teaser of the Week (Week 13)
Official 2-Team 6-Point Teaser Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3 to Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5
Summary:
Look this is a value bet here - both these teams are taking significant sharp money in the market at their actual spread numbers. Dallas opened as a 6 point favorite in some shops and they’ve been bet all the way up to 9. I obviously would prefer to get them to -2.5 through the key number of 3, but we’re okay at -3 (nothing higher). The Cowboys have been rolling at home and the Seahawks have struggled anytime they’ve stepped up in class this season. This is an easy teaser leg for me to play in this spot. Especially since it’s not really a short week for Dallas considering they played last Thursday.
On the other side we have the Jags. Yes they are coming off a big win that could lead to a little bit of a let down spot here. But I just don’t see it against this Cincinnati team on the road in a big game for the Jags. The Jags are actually tied in the loss column for that 1 seed in the AFC so they have a ton to play for. The Bengals are just a trainwreck here. They have no incentive to win anymore. They aren’t going anywhere this season, and they shouldn’t be attempting to. They should be tanking and hoping for the highest possible draft pick to help their HORRIFIC secondary. They have one of the worst defenses in football, and nobody talks about it. They’re the 2nd worst in yards per play allowed, and they have given up loads of explosive plays this season. The Jags offense is getting healthier and they will have a field day at home against a BAD Cinci defense, with no incentive to improve this season. Give me Jacksonville under a field goal all day.
Dylan’s Pick: 2-Team Teaser: Cowboys -3 to Jags -2.5
Love this play. Let’s make it a 3 UNIT play ONLY if you can get Dallas -2.5 or better. If you get Dallas at -3 then 2 units.
College Basketball Best Bet 11/30/23
Author: Dylan Lieck | 11/30/23 | 3:07 P.M. CST
There’s a great spot for ONE college basketball play tonight.
Best Bet #1
Game: Texas Tech @ Butler
Line: Butler -1.5
Total: 138.5
Location: Heinckle Field House (Butler Home Arena)
Time: 5:30 PM | Broadcast: Fox Sports 1
Pick: Butler -1 (play to -2 or -130 ML)
Summary:
Once again we are going with a home team in this spot. Full disclosure, a lot of books are already moving this line. I’ve seen a -1 out there still (what I got it at) but a lot of places have moved it a full point to -2. I still like it at -2. Anything over -2, you may want to look to the Moneyline, but it’s probably okay at -2.5.
Overall, this is a combination of a few things. Obviously home court advantage is the biggest. I don’t think there’s really very big of a gap between these two teams. It’s definitely harder to tell early in the year at this point, however from the data points I have, and from the numbers, I don’t see that big of a difference between the two teams. Butler comes into the game 5-2, while Tech comes in 5-1. Butler’s 2 losses came at Michigan State (who is still a top 15 team in the country in my Power Ratings), and on a neutral floor to FAU (possibly a top 10 team). Butler also covered the spread against FAU, losing by just 5 (86-91). However, Tech’s lone loss came against Villanova. I know Nova just ran through the battle for Atlantis field, but let’s be honest that field was extremely underwhelming. Nova is also insanely inconsistent. They’ve beaten 3 good power 5 teams, and lost to Penn University and St. Joes. So I don’t even have Nova in my top 25 power rankings currently.
The one data point that really make me lean Butler, though, is actually a Texas Tech win. I watched Tech play a 2-5 Northern Iowa team in the Battle for Atlantis, and it basically took a MIRACLE comeback for them to squeak out a 2 point victory. They looked awful, especially defensively in the game. That is a Northern Iowa team with losses to North Texas, and a 20-point home loss to Belmont. Tech should’ve lost that game (they trailed by 15 with 7 minutes to play). Oddsmakers are overreacting to the Red Raiders blowout win over Michigan. A Michigan team that is nowhere near what it’s been in years past (in fact it’s the worst Michigan team I’ve seen in 2 decades).
Butler is the better shooting team overall, as they shoot nearly 8% better eFG%-wise compared to Texas Tech. They share the ball better, averaging 3 more assists per game. And all the while they have played the tougher schedule? Yeah give me Butler all day here.
Dylan’s Pick: Butler -1 (play to -2)
College Basketball Best Bets 11/29/23
Author: Dylan Lieck | 11/29/23 | 11:53 A.M.
It’s a Wednesday afternoon, and there are some quality college hoops games on the betting slate tonight. With no football on, let’s dive into some best bets for tonights games.
Game 1: Arkansas vs. Duke
Line: Duke -4.5
Total: 148.5
Dylan’s Pick: Arkansas +4.5
Summary:
Look if you have never followed my picks or if you just don’t watch a ton of college basketball, the NUMBER ONE thing that will help you improve your handicapping in College Basketball is HOME COURT ADVANTAGE. College Basketball is BY FAR the sport where Home Court advantage plays a huge roll. Basketball is already a game of momentum, and when you have a ruckus crowd behind you, with a lot of 18-20 year old kids playing in a basketball game, things can get pretty wild. So if you’re going to be following my picks this year, one important thing to know is you almost will never see me taking a road team. Especially not when we get to conference.
Here we are going to take a team in a non-conference game in the Arkansas Razorbacks. This is an Arkansas team that comes into this game on a 2-game losing streak, while dropping 3 of their last 4 games. One of those losses came to an unranked UNC Greensboro team, and the other two came at the tournament over Thanksgiving called Battle for Atlantis. So we are getting the Razorbacks here at an absolute dirt cheap price. What I mean by that is if you look at these two teams on paper, even without Tramon Mark in the lineup, you are probably making this game Duke -2.5 on a neutral floor. But because UNCG beat them, and because it’s only the first game Mark isn’t playing, this line is highly inflated. You are going to have the public ALL OVER Duke in this spot, only laying 4.5 points against a bad Arkansas team. I LOVE that we’re getting 4.5, because I think we can win this game outright. I thought we’d be laying 1.5 or 2 to be honest.
Looking at the matchup here, the key is that obviously you have Duke playing it’s first TRUE road game of the season. They come into this game 5-1, with their lone loss at home to #12 Arizona. They did beat Michigan State in the State Farm Championship Classic on a neutral floor, but again that was not a TRUE road game. This is the first time they will be going into a hostile environment, and if you aren’t familiar with Bud Walton Arena, it’s an incredibly tough place to go in and win. Especially if you are not familiar with playing there (which Duke is not). That alone is enough for me to back Arkansas in this spot. But let’s throw in one more for good measure.
The last thing I love is just the mismatch athletically in this one. Duke has traditionally struggled with athleticism the last year and change under new HC John Scheyer. We saw it a couple times early in the regular season last year. And then we saw it when Duke got absolutely SMACKED by a LESS talented Tennessee team last year. Why? Because Tennessee was more athletic, bigger, and stronger. You can only do so much with skill. The funny thing is I actually don’t even think Duke is all that much more skilled than Arkansas. Maybe a little bit, but it isn’t much.
Official Pick: ARKANSAS +4.5 (Sprinkle some on Arkansas +150)
So we have a massive advantage athletically, and maybe a slight disadvantage talent wise, but it’s going to be negated by the home court factor? Yeah give me the Razorbacks in this one ALL DAY. This is the type of game I LOVE to bet the home dog in. We don’t get this big of a number that often anymore. Usually Arkansas is like -2 in this spot, so I’m going to jump on the value with a max bet on this one. Give me Arkansas +4.5 and do yourself a favor and sprinkle half a unit on them Moneyline. I’d be surprised if they don’t win this one outright.
Game 2: Texas A&M @ Virginia
Line: Virginia -2.5
Total: 125.5
Dylan’s Pick: Virginia -2.5
Summary:
Essentially this pick is based on two things. Number one is market perception, and number two is health of the two teams. First off let’s look at the market. Virginia has NOT impressed anyone early in the season. They are currently sitting at 4-1 going into this game, with their best win coming over a very athletic Florida Gators team 73-70 on a neutral floor. In that game against the Gators the Hoos actually shot 39% from the 3-point line & 50.9% eFG%. I think anyone who has watched a Virginia game over the past half decade (Post-National Title) would take those numbers offensively. Virginia has been far from an offensive juggernaut in the Tony Bennett era.
All that said, I watched the Hoos play Wisconsin on a neutral floor in Florida not too long after the win over the Gators, and man was it ugly. I honestly think Virginia set offense in the game of basketball back 50 years, as they were absolutely AWFUL. They lost by 24 points to the Badgers and put up just 41 points offensively the entire game, which included a first half of less than 20 points scored. Against Wisconsin in that game UVA shot an abysmal 32% from the field & 29% from three. But we’ve seen Virginia play that way and be highly competitive in years past. How? Their defense. They’re pack-line defense has ALWAYS been a staple of that team, and it’s something that most teams really struggle with, especially non-conference teams that have not seen it much before playing UVA. The shocking thing to me about that game against Wisconsin was how BAD UVA’s defense was. They allowed the Badgers to score 1.33 Points Per Possession (which is absurdly high for any team in CBB, let alone against UVA’s Defense). They posted an eFG% above 50% and shot nearly 45% from beyond the arc. All of these numbers are abnormal for Virginia to allow defensively.
The Hoos did follow up that performance with another bad offensive outing against West Virginia, in a game that they could’ve EASILY lost, but managed to escape 56-54. Here’s the main thing though. Those games in which Virginia looked AWFUL all came 7 or more days ago. They faced that Wisconsin team last Tuesday, and followed it up playing WVU Wednesday. What does that mean? Well it means Tony Bennett has had a full week to break down the film, get back to focusing on all the little things, and you better believe he’s going to have his team ready DEFENSIVELY for this matchup with the Aggies.
Now I’m not saying that Virginia is going to miraculously come out lighting it up from beyond the arc, dropping 70+ points. I’d be SHOCKED if we saw that. But I do believe they’re going to really muck up this game. It’s going to be played at a SNAILS Pace, as we will see lots of late shot clock possessions from the Hoos. Also expect Virginia to be much better on the glass. Against the Badgers of Wisconsin, UVA allowed TWENTY Offensive Rebounds. Yup, you heard that right: TWO, ZERO. There’s almost zero chance the Aggies have over 10 tonight. You can bet that was a point of emphasis along with their defensive principles the last week of practice with Bennett and his staff.
I’ll get to A&M’s health in a minute, but I do want to say in terms of the Aggies, I think when they are healthy, they have potential to be a really good team come March, and they’ll have a shot to make a deep tourney run with their guards. However, they are not healthy (keep reading below). But more than that, I do not like how their defense is trending. Against FAU, who is a good team but not an EXPLOSIVE team offensively, they allowed 96 points. And it wasn’t just one bad half, it was 46 in the 1H and 50 in the 2H. They were absolutely exposed. They followed that up allowing an Iowa State team, who’s got one of the more poor offenses, to score 70 points on them. They’ve allowed over 1 point per possession in 5 games this season, and they have really struggled staying in front of guys (hence why they tend to play 1-2-2 pressure to shorten possessions). I HATE how A&M’s defense is trending, and I like that UVA has had a week off. The spot is great for UVA here.
A&M’s Health:
A&M’s second best overall player, and second leading scorer, Tyrece Radford is out tonight. He missed the second half of the game in a loss to FAU last week, and then sat out of their previous game against Iowa State. A&M is just a different team with Radford out of the lineup. He’s an absolute monster attacking the rim, and he’s a really tough kid. He’s not only their leader, but he provides another element beyond just Wade Taylor shooting 3s and floaters. He gets all the way to the rim with physicality and gets to the FT line more than any other guard in the country. This team just is not the same without those two guys together in the lineup. We saw that against FAU in the second half. We saw it against Iowa State. And we’re going to see it tonight.
Official Pick: VIRGINIA -2.5
Last thing, this is A&M’s second true road game, but it’s the first one in which some of these guys will play major, meaningful minutes with Radford out. I think this is going to be a very low scoring game, and I’d lean strongly to the UNDER as well, but let’s go with the Hoos on the side here. Give me Virginia -2.5 for my 2nd BEST BET of the night.
Game 3: Colorado State vs. Colorado
Line: CSU -3.5
Total: 149.5
Dylan’s Pick: Colorado State -3.5
Summary:
Overall I just love the spot here for Colorado State. They are coming off a HUGE win for their program against Creighton, and now they are at home against their rival. I don’t think this is a let down spot at all. This is a chance for them to beat Colorado, which they haven’t done in a LONG time. They are going to be super up for this one.
If you haven’t had a chance to watch the PG for CSU play (Isaiah Stevens) you are in for a TREAT. The kid is arguably the best PG in the country. I think he is going to have a big game tonight (not a bold prediction - he always plays well). I love CSU in this spot against a very streaky Colorado team. Colorado is for sure a tourney team and they have a really good guard in KJ Simpson, but give me CSU at home in a big game for their program only laying 3.5
Official Pick: CSU -3.5
Best Bets No. 1 = 3 Unit MAX Bet
Best Bet No. 2 = 2 Unit Bet
Best Bet No. 3 = 1 Unit Bet
College Basketball Best Bet: Maui Invitational Day 2 (11/21/23)
Game: #4 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Line: Kansas -3.5 | Total: 156.5
Pick: Marquette +3.5 AND Moneyline +140
Matchup:
The nightcap of the first day of the Maui Invitational was by far the best game of the day, with Marquette narrowly escaping a VERY good UCLA team, 71-69. UCLA guard Sebastian Mack had a contested, off-balance layup attempt at the buzzer that fell just short, allowing Marquette to advance to face the number 1 team in the country, the Kansas Jayhawks, in the Maui Invitational Semis. The Jayhawks on the other hand, got a de-facto bye, facing the lone Division 2 team in Chaminade (host school), a game where the Jayhawks dominated from start to finish.
Pick: Look Kansas is a very good team, and they will likely be right there to win the Big 12 as they always are. They will very likely be there deep in the NCAA Tourney. Bill Self ALWAYS gets his teams playing well at the right time. Unfortunately for the Jayhawks, they won’t be ranked #1 after this tournament end: the team likely to be ranked #1 is going to be the Marquette Golden Eagles, as I believe they are going to win this tournament.
I was on the Jayhawks when they faced off against Kentucky early in the year in the Champions Classic. I took the Jayhawks live at +120 when they were down late in the first half, as I thought they had a good shot to comeback against a Kentucky team playing way better than they actually were that first half. That said, I got to see the Jayhawks play a full game against a quality opponent in that one. And what I realized is this is a team that is NOT DEEP AT ALL. I think honestly after Dewan Harris and Hunter Dickinson, they really don’t have anyone ready to play at this level (against a top 10 team with really good guards). I’m not a fan of McCullers whatsoever, despite the fact that he got a triple double against a Division 2 team. And the other starters the Jayhawks have would likely not be in the rotation for the Golden Eagles. Christian Braun’s brother is in the rotation off the bench, and he looks like a mid-major player at best. I just don’t see why Kansas is favored in this one. Not only do they lack depth, but they REALLY lack shooting. So you’re asking a lot of young guys who lack experience to go up and beat a very experienced, tough, deep Marquette team by margin? Good luck.
I understand that Marquette snuck by UCLA last night, but the Bruins are a very good young team. They have outstanding guards (Better guards than Kansas overall). And Marquette, despite barely winning, was impressive for a stretch of that game. After getting down 12 in the second half, they went on a 17-0 run, and eventually got as much as a 7 point lead in that game. UCLA went from playing outstanding to completely out of synch. This is a VETERAN TEAM with tons of talent. Brandon Kolak is “SURGICAL” as a Point Guard for the Golden Eagles. He didn’t play well yesterday, but he doesn’t have two bad games in a row. He’s going to be locked in for this one. Moreover they had a number of guys step up off the bench and make some huge defensive plays as well as hitting some big time shots.
PICK:
I believe Marquette will be there at the end of the year as well. This is a legit Final Four contender, and Kansas isn’t anywhere near ready to play with a team like this. Give me Marquette all day. I wouldn’t even mess with the +3.5, I would take Marquette Moneyline at +140 or better. I think they win this one outright and I don’t think it’s particularly close.
OFFICIAL PICK = MARQUETTE +140 Moneyline (To Win Outright)
NFL Best Bets 11/19/23
NFL Best Bets of the Day: We’ve got TWO great plays for everyone today!! One straight bet and one teaser of the week.
Teaser of the Week: Let’s start with the teaser as it’s a shorter breakdown.
Teaser Pick: Lions -2 to Jaguars -1
Lions -2: This is probably the one I’d worry about slightly more. I only say that because I don’t LOVE the Lions homefield advantage in a dome. I also think Justin Fields has some incentive to ball out here as he’s playing for a lot (the Bears may draft a QB and he could be playing for a spot as a starter somewhere else). All that said, I do think the Lions have a great shot to win this game. We’re getting them through the key numbers of 7 and 3, so it’s a very valuable leg. But most of all, the Bears have no incentive to win this game as a whole. They want the best possible draft pick. While the Lions have a ton to play for, trying to run away with the NFC North and compete for the first round bye and #1 overall seed. So we will back the Lions -2 as leg number one.
Jaguars -1: You might even be able to get this to a PK. I truly believe this one won’t be close. So to me, I’m getting 6 points on another leg for free on a straight bet. Why? Before last week the Jags had been rolling. The defense had been playing well, and they have looked better offensively, albeit not amazing. They just ran into a 49ers team last week that was on a mission to prove they were still a contender and they made that statement. The Jags are NOT a Super Bowl contender. But they are FAR better than the Titans who have basically punted on this season, trading away Kevin Byard to Phili and going to a rookie QB to help him get some experience and develop. The Titans on the road are one of the worst teams in the league. This is not the Titans of the last few years, and I think this one isn’t close. Would consider playing them in a straight bet as well, and I think this will be a blowout.
Straight Bet:
Pick: Cleveland Browns -120 ML vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Summary:
Okay, so this game ORIGINALLY opened at Cleveland -4 with a total of 38. Obviously the news of DeShaun Watson being out for the year (thus missing this game closed the game). We re-opened Browns +1 and that got GOBBLED up quickly by professionals. In fact in some spots it’s been bet up to Browns -2 (Going through zero isn’t that big of a move, but moving 3 points is a sizable move in the NFL). And to me that makes perfect sense. Why? This Steelers team is absurdly over-valued in the market, and they are SIGNIFICANTLY worse than their record. They are quite possibly the WORST 6-3 team I’ve ever seen. So I’ve been looking to fade the Steelers for a long time, and with Watson out I think it’s the perfect spot.
This year, the Steelers are 6-0 in one-score games, and they are the LUCKIEST team in the NFL (one of the luckiest teams in the past decade, according to the luck metric). This Pittsburgh team has literally been out gained in EVERY SINGLE game this season, and yet they’ve found a way to win 6 of their 9 games. It’s actually a statistical anomaly.
Browns Offense vs. Steelers Defense:
So yes, the biggest part of this handicap is the fact that DeShaun Watson is not play. In steps Dorian Thompson Robinson, as he will make his second career start. And, let’s not sugarcoat it; his first career start was really bad. He was 19/36 for 121 yards, 0 TDs, 3 Picks, and he was sacked 4 times. It was a bloodbath, and the Browns got smoked at home by the Ravens → This will almost certainly lead the public to be on the Steelers in this spot. Here’s the issue with that: this is NOTHING like that first start for DTR.
Let’s look at ALL of the factors that went into that first career start. First, DTR is a rookie, and this game was very early in the season. Second, he’s not only a backup receiving very few reps in practice, but likely even less than normal in the off-season, as he was backing up DeShaun Watson, and Watson did not play in 11 games last season. You have to believe Watson was taking every single rep he possibly could in the off-season and early in the year in practce. So DTR had VERY limited snaps. Third, there was uncertainty throughout the week as to whether Watson was actually going to play. He even practiced some on Thursday of that week, and Watson wasn’t even ruled out until game day. That means the gameplan was in no way tailored to DTR. AND, he was doing it with no Nic Chubb (only 2nd game), and no Jack Conklin (best Offensive Lineman). Lastly, they were going against the Baltimore Ravens, one of the NFL’s best (most physical) defenses. So you add all that up, and it’s really hard to look at that game and view it as any sort of meaningful datapoint to evaluate DTR. This week, he’s gotten the practice reps all week. He’s been named the starter early (helps him prepare mentally and physically to start). They are playing a much inferior defense in the Steelers. And the offense is more equipped now to function without Chubb and Conklin (been doing it for months now).
Secondly, we have to ask ourselves how much we are really losing here from D-Wat being out. I mean, I like Watson, and I believe if he stays healthy he can still get back to top 10 QB form. But the reality is that he was not very good this season, with the exception of the second half against Baltimore last week. Watson was 29th in completion percentage, 25th in Yards Per Pass Attempt, & 18th in TD:INT ratio. Pro Football Focus had him ranked 23rd in the NFL, behind Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, and Ryan Tannehil. So he’s been nothing to write home about this season. And that’s not even mentioning his propensity to throw pick sixes & commit early game TO’s (see last week). I actually like that it’s DTR here, because I think he’s just as good as PJ Walker (in fact I think he’s slightly better). But I believe the perception among the public is that Walker is better (which will put even more of Joe Public on the Steelers here). In fact, Walker grades out the worst QB in the past decade of anyone who has had at least 500 drop backs.
Lastly on this side of the ball: Steelers Defense. Their PFF Grade: 16th Ranked Defense Overall, 21st in Tackling, 17th in Red Zone “D”, & 19th Coverage. The only thing they do well is rush the passer (7th in NFL). The Steeler’s have been AWFUL defending the run this year, especially lately, and they are DECIMATED by injuries, especially at the LB position. Now, they do get Cam Hayward back this week, and that will help them against the run, but you have to believe Cleveland is going to have some real success on the ground, and DTR is going to have some light boxes to be able to hit Amari Cooper & Njoku over the middle vs some LB’s who really struggle to cover. So, overall my point is: DTR isn’t THAT BIG of a step down from Watson, and it’s a good spot for the Browns here, against a very subpar defense. The perception of DTR is too low, and the perception of the Pittsburgh “D” is too high (bc of their record). As long as DTR doesn’t turn the ball over, they should be able to have some significant offensive success.
Browns “D” vs. Steelers “O”
Despite all the info above, this is actually the biggest mismatch in this game. The Browns Defense is legitimately the best in the NFL, and they showed it last week. In reality, the Ravens Offense (who has been explosive lately) was held to 17 total points. They scored 31, but one TD was a pick six, and another came off a muffed punt where the Ravens started inside the Cleveland 7 yard line.
The Browns have been really good against the run this season. They are top 10 in the NFL in both Rush Success Rate Allowed as well as EPA/Rush. They’ve been great against the pass as well, allowing just 55% completion percentage to opposing QBs, 9 Passing TDs (T-2nd Least Allowed), 9 INTs (6th Most), and just 5.8 yards per pass (5th NFL). As a whole, they’ve allowed just 62 first downs all season (1st NFL), and they’ve allowed a 1st down percentage of 26.3% (1st NFL). They’ve also accrued 30 sacks (T-5th NFL), and Myles Garrett has been an absolute menace.
All of those stats are incredible for the league’s top defense, but they sound even better when they are going up against Kenny Picket and Matt Canada. Kenny Pickett has been HORRIBLE this season. Here’s the starting QBs he’s graded out better than so far this season: Josh Dobbs, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson = He’s been worse than literally every other starter. That include Jimmy G, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, Tyrod Taylor, & Derek Carr. It’s been embarrassingly bad. And the sad part about all of it is that they’ve been incredibly conservative in doing so. The whole scheme of the Steelers is “Don’t fuck up. Don’t turn it over.” Listen to this: Kenny Pickett has not attempted a SINGLE PASS between the hash marks in the entirety of his past two starts. NOT ONE. That’s wild. What does all this mean? This offense is insanely predictable. The entirety of the offense is let’s run the ball, throw short and outside, and do everything we can to minimize mistakes. That might work if you have an incredible defense, but when you don’t it’s just stupid (I say that and somehow they are 6-3).
I just don’t see how this offense has any success here, on the road, against this elite Browns “D”. Pickett may not turn the ball over tomorrow, but he almost certainly will not have a productive/efficient game. And if the Steelers get down early, I don’t know how they get back in the game. They’d pretty much have to abandon the entirety of their plan (which I don’t see happening).
Final Thoughts/Pick:
Overall, I just think this Steelers team is really bad, and their record masks that. On the other hand, I think this Browns team is really good, and it’s a shame Watson went down; however, as we discussed, the drop off to DTR isn’t quite as big as some might think. I’m not sure the Browns have a legit shot to win the division with DTR under center, but I think they lean on the run game, they lean on the defense, and ultimately DTR will make some plays with his legs (and maybe a few deep balls). We’re happily backing the CLEVELAND BROWNS in this spot. I bet this game 3 days ago and got it at PK (-110). There are plenty of -120 out there. I could even justify taking -125 if you had to. As always shop around and find the best number. I definitely would try to find a good ML price as opposed to laying any points (The total is 33, so a point or two could matter).
CFB Best Bets 11/18/23
We had a GREAT weekend last week!! Went 3-1 on our big best bets, and had a great weekend on our side plays as well. Let’s try to have another great weekend?
Best Bets CFB Week 12 (2 Unit Plays)
Michigan State +4 @ Indiana
Miami PK vs. Louisville
Old Dominion +6 @ Georgia Southern
Oregon State -115 (ML) vs. Washington
Side Plays (1 Unit Plays)
Northwestern +3 vs. Purdue
Army +3 vs. Coastal Carolina
West Virginia -5 vs. Cinci
App State +10 @ James Madison
Arizona -1 vs. Utah
Wyoming -13 vs. Hawaii
Arizona State +24.5 vs. Oregon
ML Dog Parlay Of The Week:
Army +120 over CCU | UNLV +140 over Air Force | UCF +120 over TTU
Pays: 10.1 to 1