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College Basketball Best Bets (Tuesday, 2/20/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 20, 2024 | 4:59 P.M. CST
Note: I wanted to get these picks posted at least an hour before the tip off of the games. However, these picks are all going to be later than that time. Keep in mind the unit sizing here. Also check out my YouTube channel for video breakdowns of my two best plays of the night. I will not be giving an in depth breakdown of these games for time sake. If I have time in the next hour or so I will come back and give a more in depth analysis. But look to my YouTube video if you want the information and breakdown for now. Thanks and Good Luck!!
Best Bet of the Night (2 Units):
Creighton Bluejays +3 vs. UCONN Huskies (Play to +2)
Additional Plays (2 Units)
Utah State Aggies -2.5 vs. San Diego State (Play to -3)
Additional Plays (1U)
BYU -4.5 vs. Baylor: To be honest I would’ve made this a 2U play if this line would’ve remained at 3, which is where it opened. There’s been significant sharp money on this Cougs pushing this all the way to 4.5. I think most of the value in the number is gone, but I still like the spot, so we’ll take this just for less (1U)
Toledo -2 vs. Akron: Significant steam on Toledo, and they’re the best team in this conference
Villanova -7.5 vs. Butler: This opened 6 and has been pushed all the way out to 7.5. Nova is playing much better and Butler is trending in the wrong direction. We’re at home, so I’m okay laying the extra 1 to 1.5 points here for a unit.
UMASS -2.5 vs. VCU: UMASS plays much better at home, and VCU struggles to score at times, especially away from home. We’ve seen professional money on the MInutemen at 1.5 and 2 and we’re out to -2.5. Let’s lay it with UMASS as Frank Martin has the boys playing well.
Free College Basketball Pick of the Day (2/19/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 19, 2024 | 4:53 P.M. CST
Note: This is not an official bet in my portfolio, but a strong lean for my free pick of the day (I would not wager more than .5 to 1 unit on these). But they are going to hit at a higher rate than most people giving out picks. Official picks are usually 2 units for me for college hoops (for reference).
Game: Lamar (14-11) @ Southeast Louisiana (13-13)
Line: SE Louisiana -1.5 | Lamar +1.5
Location: University Center (SE Louisiana Home Gymnasium, Hammond, LA)
Time: 6:00 P.M. CST
Summary:
These two teams come into this matchup in a logjam atop the Southland Conference Standings, with a number of teams fighting for second place. McNeese State is alone atop the Southland at a 23-3 overall record, but more importantly 12-1 in conference. Lamar is in a three-way tie for second place, sitting at 8-4 in the conference. SE Louisiana on the other hand sits 8-5, just one game back in the loss column of Lamar, as well as Texas A&M CC and Nicholls State. Thus, this is a massive game for SE Louisiana to continue climbing in the rankings.
After a rough 2-5 start to conference play, the Lions of SE Louisiana have won 6 straight conference games to get right back in the thick of things in the race for 2nd place. The Lions last loss came against none other than, Lamar. Going into that game Lamar was 5-2 in conference play, but they’ve won just 3 of their last 5 as they’ve cooled off considerably. Thus we have two teams coming into this game in completely different forms. SE Louisiana has not only won 6 straight coming into this game, but they also did what no other Southland team has been able to do this season: Beat McNeese State.
The Lions pulled the upset at home, where they have won 4-straight. In fact their last loss at home came over a month ago in mid-January. On the other hand we have a Lamar team that comes into this game that does not play well on the road. In fact, the Cardinals are undefeated at home in Southland Conference play (a perfect 6-0), while ALL four of their losses in conference play have come on the road. They are just 2-4 on the road against Southland opponents, and they have dropped games away from home to teams much worse than SE Louisiana. The Cardinals lost games to both Houston Christian and Incarnate Word. So it’s not as though they are just losing on the road to good teams. They have a legitimate issue playing away from home.
In addition to the Home Court advantage, I also like that SE Louisiana is playing a revenge game here. Lamar is the last opponent to beat them in conference play, and they’ve gone on a tear since. I believe they are going to come out extremely motivated to take down the Cardinals and avenge their most recent loss.
Lastly, I really like the way SE Louisiana plays. Not only are they the BEST three point shooting team in the Southland conference, but they are one of the better three point shooting teams in the country. The Rams have 5 players who shoot the ball at 35% or better from beyond the arc. That’s going to play a huge role here as the Cardinals have struggled to defend the three-point line, especially on the road. I see a huge shooting day from the Rams in this spot.
All of those factors together, you can easily guess with who we are going with for our free pick of the day. Back the RAMS of Southeast Louisiana and lay the 1.5 points. I like them in this spot, and I believe they are going to win this game by 7+ points.
FREE PICK OF THE DAY: SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA -1.5
College Basketball Best Bet (2/19/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 19, 2024 | 12:21 A.M. CST
Game: Virginia Cavaliers @ Virginia Tech Hokies
Line: Virginia Tech -3 (-110) | Virginia +3 (-110)
Location: Virginia Tech Home Gymnasium
Time: 7:00 P.M. CST
Summary:
If you want to watch some ugly basketball, do yourself a favor and turn on a Virginia men’s basketball game. On Saturday morning the Cavaliers of Virginia faced off against one of the best offenses in the country in the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The total combined points scored in the game? 96. Yup, that’s right, they scored less than 100 combined points. Calling it a defensive slugfest would be a massive understatement. Still, the Cavaliers were able to find a way to win the game despite failing to reach the half century mark offensively. One big reason for that was UVA’s performance at the free throw line. The Cavaliers shot an abysmal 1/11 from the charity stripe, good for less than 10%. This included missing 5 of their final 6 in the final minute of the game, which gave the Demon Deacons multiple chances to get out of Virginia with a win. Luckily for the Hoo’s, the one thing they do have is an elite defense, and they really were forced to lean on it on Saturday.
Despite the lack of offensive prowess, the Cavaliers once again find themselves right in the thick of things for an ACC regular season title, just one game behind both Duke and North Carolina in the loss column with 5 conference games left to play. Somehow, someway, every single year, Tony Bennett has his team playing well at the end of the regular season. Now that doesn’t always translate to success in March (minus 2019), but you do have to give him some credit for always finding a way to have his team in the hunt for a title in what is usually one of the best conferences in the country (although not this year).
Virginia Tech on the other hand, has really struggled to find consistency this season, especially in conference play. Since the beginning of ACC play, the Hokies have only strung together back-to-back wins ONCE. That stretch was a three-game winning streak in which they came away with victories over NC State, Boston College, and Georgia Tech, two of which are at the bottom of the conference standings. Since that win over GT, the Hokies are just 1-4, with their lone win coming against Florida State at home last week.
All that said, this team is still a relatively talented bunch. Over the course of the season they have wins at home over Boise State, #10 Iowa State, and #21 Clemson. When looking at their performance on their home court this year, it has actually been quite good. The Hokies lone loss to a non-ranked team at home this season came against the Miami Hurricanes about 5 weeks ago. Even that loss wouldn’t qualify as bad, with the Hurricanes having such an up and down season, but still having a core group of guys that made an Elite 8 Run just last season. With that in mind, I think this is a really good spot for VT.
From an outsiders perspective, it looks unlikely that VT is going to make the NCAA tournament this year, a place they’ve become accustomed to going over the last half-decade. That said, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. They have 5 games left, probably only two games that will be possible quad 1 wins for them. Oddly enough, this game against a ranked Virginia team is NOT going to be a Quad 1 game, as the Hokies are outside the top 30 in the Net Ranking (42). However, with two road games against top 70 teams on deck, the Hokies are going to have some opportunities to get some Q1 wins, but they won’t matter if they drop this one to Virginia. Another Q2 loss on the resume, dropping to 14-12, and 6-9 in conference would all but eliminate them from NCAA tourney contention (at least an at large bid). The Hokies are well aware of this. Their backs are absolutely against the wall in this matchup, and they know how big this game is.
The second part of this matchup is that UVA beat VT the first time they played, and that was on UVA’s home court. Blacksburg is a different story. Virginia has really struggled on the road under Tony Bennett the last two seasons, and that includes this season. Despite the fact that UVA has played slightly better away from home lately, none of those wins were against a team in the Net Top 30. The road wins for the Hoo’s came at Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Louisville, and Clemson. That’s the bottom three and a Clemson team that has been horrific at home this season. Thus, this trip to Blacksburg is going to be a completely different animal for the Hoo’s.
Lastly comes the actual matchup. Virginia is one of the worst offensive teams in the country, but one of the best defensive teams in the country. VT is the complete opposite; they carry an explosive and highly efficient offense, but really struggle on the defensive side. The reason that this matchup favors VT though is because of that offensive power. UVA relies on a pack-line defense that makes it extremely difficult to get into the lane and score in the paint. They force you to shoot contested threes from the perimeter. The problem is that VT is a very good shooting team. They have the style and the roster to be able to break down the UVA defense. On the otherside, the thing that VT really struggles with defensively more than anything is defending post players. They got absolutely eaten alive against UNC on Saturday by big man Armando Bacott. In fact they’ve gotten eaten alive by anyone with a real post presence all season. The good news for the Hokies is Virginia has no real post threat. They rely heavily on their veteran guards in Reece Beekman and Isaac McKneely. Ryan Dunn is more of a forward, and their only true seven foot post man from last season transferred to Texas. So they have nobody who is going to give UVA big problems inside.
For all of those reasons I really like VT in this spot. I would really try to get to this number as fast as possible. If it gets any higher than 3 I would pass on it. The value is definitely there at -2, -2.5. I would be okay taking -3 but nothing higher.
Official Pick: VIRGINIA TECH -2 (-110)
College Basketball Top Play of the Night (2/18/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 18, 2024 | 4:39 P.M. CST
Top Play of the Night: UCLA BRUINS -2 vs. Utah Utes
Units: 2
Summary: Don’t have time for a full summary but this is a very sharp play, and we’re going to get some serious CLV here so give me the Bruins who are playing some fantastic basketball right now. They have a legitimate shot to win the conference tourney and get into the dance.
College Basketball Best Bets (2/18/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 18, 2024 | 10:01 A.M. CST
The following are some official 2 Unit plays for today. These are not my top play of the day (see next article).
Top Plays of Sunday’s Slate (All 2 Units):
South Florida +5.5 vs. FAU: South Florida is a shocking 11-1 in conference and they are currently coming into this one on a 10-game winning streak. They are one of the surprise teams this year not just in the American Conference, but in the country. This might actually be the biggest game in their school history in terms of men’s basketball. A win here would not only put them to 12-1 in conference play and 20-5 overall, but it would give them a 2-game advantage over FAU for the American regular season title. FAU isn’t what they were last year. Don’t get me wrong, they have a ton of talent, and a lot of guys from that Final Four run returned. However, they have had some really poor outings this season. They lost to Bryant early in the season for God’s sake. Even in conference play they’ve had a number of very close calls, and despite coming in 10-2 in conference play, this group could very easily be 7-5. Thus, catching 5.5 at home, in a game that the kids from South Florida will no doubt be up for, we’re riding with the home dog. This is the first sell out for the school in program history. That place will be rocking.
Evansville +4.5 @ Illinois State: I don’t like taking road teams, but in the MVC, there are some places that just do not have much home court advantage. Illinois State is one of them. Additionally Illinois State is coming off a massive road upset of #23 Indiana State earlier this week. So this is naturally a let down spot for them. On the other side, Evansville started off conference play horrible. But they’ve been playing much better basketball as of late. The Purple Aces had won 5 in a row before back to back losses. However, both those losses came on buzzer beating threes. The one last game against Drake was a half court shot that banked in at the buzzer. So even in their recent losses they’re playing great basketball and have just gotten a bit unlucky late in games. I think 4.5 points is just too much here, in a let down spot for Illinois State, who by the way has a losing record on the year overall. Give me the Purple Aces again here.
Ohio State +8.5 vs. Purdue: Back Big 10 Home teams. It’s pretty simple. If you do this blindly this year you’re over 60% which is tremendous. This one is not blindly backed though. The truth is this number feels short. Purdue has been destroying teams as of late, and often times they are laying double digits on the road. The problem is they’ve been covering those numbers. So why is this number only 8.5? It seems fishy to me, which is why I like the home dog here. Ohio State is not going to the NCAA tournament, barring a miraculous run in the Big 10 tourney to win it all. They also fired their head coach, Chris Holtman following their win earlier this week. The thing about that is teams usually respond well to a coach getting fired, and they tend to come out that next game and play extremely hard for the assistant who just stepped in. The Buckeyes also have some really athletic bigs and I do think they have the ability to at least give Eddy some trouble underneath. They aren’t going to be AS undersized at the 5 position as some of the other teams in the conference are. It’s risky no doubt, and the Buckeyes could get blown out, but I just think the spot is too good to pass up. Give me the Buckeyes +8.5
College Basketball Best Bet Plus Full Saturday Card (2/17/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 17, 2024 | 2:37 A.M. CST
Note: This IS an OFFICIAL BEST BET that is being given out to my paying clients. This is my top play of the day for my Saturday card. I’m currently on a 10-3 run including a +250 hit. We are up BIG over the course of the season, picking over 64% winners on my Official Rated Plays. If you wish to get ALL of my top, official plays, text me at 210-836-8820 to sign up for an a premium account. You will get access to ALL my plays in real time as I make them. Stop losing today and text me. I’ve been in this business for over a decade and have a proven track record of success. There is only a month left in the season before the tournament starts, so jump on board quick. Enjoy the breakdown and good luck tomorrow in all your wagers!!
Game: #21 Virginia (19-6) vs. Wake Forest (16-8)
Line: Virginia -1.5 | Wake Forest +1.5
Location: Virginia Home Arena (John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA)
Time: 11:00 A.M. CST
Projected Attendance: Sell Out
Virginia
ACC Record: 10-4 (3rd in ACC)
Home Record: 13-1
Home Conference Record: 7-1
Against the Spread: 14-11
ATS Conference Home: 4-2-1
Wake Forest
ACC Record: 8-5 (4th in ACC)
Road Record: 2-6
Road Conference Record: 2-5
Against the Spread: 12-11-1
ATS Conference Road: 2-5
Game Breakdown:
We have an ACC clash between the teams ranked 3rd and 4th in the ACC currently. We have two programs in much different places, both coming in near the top of the conference late in the year. On one hand the Virginia Cavaliers are a team that is nearly an automatic lock to get in the NCAA tournament each season, winning a National Title just 5 seasons ago in 2019. The Demon Deacons on the other hand, are looking to get back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2017. A win at a ranked Virginia team would go a long way in helping seal that tournament birth. Unfortunately for the Deacs, this is an incredibly difficult spot on the road. Let’s dive into why we like the short home favorite in this one.
Virginia is coming off a home loss in conference play, as they dropped one to Pittsburgh on Tuesday night, 63-74. As bad as that loss may seem on the surface, Pittsburgh has surprisingly turned its season around after a dreadful start, and they actually sit 6th in the ACC standings right now. In terms of current form, UVA was playing some outstanding basketball before their loss to the Panthers. The Cavaliers had won 8 games in a row before dropping that game on Tuesday night. It’s also worth noting that Pittsburgh recently went into Cameron Indoor and defeated a Top 10 ranked Duke team on the road. So the Panthers are no stranger to pulling an upset or two. Additionally, in the game against the Panthers, Virginia really didn’t play poorly. They shot 50% from the floor as a team and turned the ball over just 5 times.
The difference in the game against Pittsburgh was the Panthers went absolutely nuclear from the three-point line (14 made threes on 43% shooting), while the Cavaliers couldn’t buy one. Even though Virginia is not a great offensive team, they surprisingly are a very good three point shooting team overall this season. They shoot just under 38% from downtown, which is good for the 19th best mark in the country. In the game against Pittsburgh the Cavaliers shot just 4/14 from deep (28.6%). Going into the Pittsburgh game, Virginia had shot 42.1% from three in home conference games on the season (48/114). It’s highly unlikely that we will see a repeat of Tuesday night from the 19th best three-point shooting team in the country. Isaac Mckneely, Virginia’s second leading scorer (12.5 PPG) shot just 2/6 from downtown. On the season he has shot a staggering 47.5% from three (including the off performance against Pittsburgh), so I like McKneely to get back on track in this one in a big way. He’s been absolutely lights out this year.
Wake Forest is an excellent three-point shooting team in their own right, knocking down 37.3% from behind the arc this season (27th in the country). However in ACC road games, that number drops significantly. They have shot just 29.4% from three on the road in conference, and only two of their seven conference road games have they even shot above 33% from downtown. Wake isn’t totally reliant on the three, but they often find themselves continuing to launch from beyond the arc, even when they aren’t falling. The Demon Deacons take more threes than anyone else in the conference.
Spot:
The matchup in general is a pretty good one for Virginia, but the spot is even better. The last time Virginia lost back-to-back home games was February of 2022. They lost those two games by a combined 5 points, and the back-t0-back losses came in the lone season since 2016 in which Virginia failed to reach the NCAA Tourney (this year they made the NIT). In fact, over the last 7 seasons, Virginia has lost back-to-back games at home just one time (which was that time in 2022. On the other hand we have a Wake Forest that has struggled on the road all season
Their lone wins on the road in ACC play have come against Georgia Tech and Boston College (two of the worst teams in the ACC). The Deacs are just 2-6 on the road overall this season, 2-5 in ACC play on the road, and 2-5 against the spread in those same games. So, we have a team who is elite at home, coming off a home loss in a building they almost NEVER lose two in a row, playing against a team that has had massive struggles on the road this season. All of these things give a strong edge to the Cavaliers of Virginia.
Revenge spot:
This definitely is a big revenge spot for Virginia, as they were demolished by the Demon Deacons earlier this season (19 point victory for Wake). I don’t always love the “revenge” spots late in the season, because sometimes there’s too much stock put into them. However, this Virginia team is miles better than they were when these two teams faced off for the first time this season. On the other hand, I believe Wake’s best basketball is behind them. The Demon Deacons started the season on an 11-3 run, including a 3-0 start to ACC play. However, they are just 5-5 in their last 1o games. In that span all 5 losses have come on the road, and only ONE of their 5 wins in that span came outside of their home building (and that was against Georgia Tech).
PICK:
Overall, this is just a bad spot for the Demon Deacons. It’s a back-to-back road game, while the Hoo’s are playing their second straight home game. As mentioned, the home court advantage for Virginia is massive, and they are playing against a team who has struggled mightily on the road. The Demon Deacons also seriously lack depth on their roster, and it’s very easy to get worn down against this Virginia defense over the course of 40 minutes. The Deacs may keep it close early, but over the course of the full 40 minutes, the Cavaliers are going to pull away. Give me Virginia in this one and let’s lay the 2.5 or 3 points. This line has moved all over the place. It was being offered at ESPN bet at -1.5 for a while on Friday night. It moved as high as -2.5. So shop around for the best number
OFFICIAL PICK: Virginia -1.5 (play to -2)
Units: 2 Units
Additional OFFICIAL Picks: (All 2 Unit Plays)
South Carolina -7 vs. LSU + South Carolina -4 (1st Half) vs. LSU (1 unit on each, 2 Total)
I really like South Carolina in this spot, however I hate laying more than 6 points with teams like South Carolina who struggle to score. Therefore I’m going to play this game two different ways. First we’re going to take South Carolina minus the seven points. LSU is a team that has just struggled this season. They’ve had a few close losses in SEC play, but on the road they have been really bad. Their lone impressive road win in conference was at Texas A&M, who is down this season. South Carolina on the other hand is 13-1 at home this season. They’ve been really tough to beat in general this season (11th in the Net Rankings), but they have been especially good at home. They are also coming off their worst loss of the season, as they dropped one to Auburn on Tuesday night by 40 points. Normally you think a loss to a good team like Auburn could carry a hangover effect, however I believe the Gamecocks are going to forget about that loss pretty quickly. When you lose a game that bad, you usually just throw it out and move on. There’s nothing to dwell on, nothing to be upset about in terms of bad officiating, or an unlucky break. It was just the Gamecocks worst game of the season and Auburn’s best game of the season.
The one reason I am a bit weary to take South Carolina is because of their inability to score at times. They have an outstanding defense, but they go through spurts where they can’t score. I believe they will wear down LSU over the course of 40 minutes, however I think it’s almost impossible for the Gamecocks to not have at least one dominant half. Therefore, instead of just taking the game I am going to take both the first half and the game. I think the Gamecocks have a very good shot to come out and jump all over the Tigers. If they do we will win our first half bet, and we will have a risk free bet on the Gamecocks with an advantage going to half. If they somehow struggle in the first half and don’t cover the 4 points, I believe they will have a good chance of dominating the second half. There is no way LSU is going to cover both of these numbers. So let’s go ONE unit on each of these, TWO units TOTAL on this game.
Illinois -2.5 @ Maryland
This might be the first legitimate road team I’ve taken this entire season, and it could also be the last. The bottom line is this number is COMPLETELY wrong. This number should absolutely be Illinois -5.5. The fact that they are laying just 2.5 here is forcing me to bet them here. The reason Illinois is just a 2.5 point favorite is multi-fold. Number one, winning on the road in the Big 10 this season has been an absolute nightmare, so that is built into the number. Number 2, Maryland beat Illinois the first time these two met in Champagne. And, it was not by a small margin, as the Terrapins won that game by 12 points. Number 3, Illinois has not won at Maryland in over a decade. In fact the last time Maryland dropped one to the Fighting Illini at home was back in 2011. So all of those things combined have been taken into account with this number. The problem with all of that is this Illinois team is significantly different; I actually believe they are one of the best 10 teams in the country. Additionally, this Fighting Illini team is an excellent three-point shooting team on the road. It does not make any difference to them in terms of the location of their games for their shooting percentage from beyond the arc. Second, the fact that Maryland beat Illinois the first time they played this season actually benefits the Illini. This is going to be a revenge game for Illinois in this spot, and this is the type of team that will actually use this as motivation. Lastly, Maryland’s home court advantage is nowhere near what it once was. I just don’t see that advantage making too much of a difference in this game. I do think it will be a tight game, but Illinois should control it throughout and I believe they will end up easily cover the 2.5. Take ILLINOIS in this spot and lay the 2.5.
Colorado State -6 vs. Utah State
This is a simple breakdown. Utah State was the beneficiary of a lot of close wins early in the conference season. There were two games in which Utah State had less than a 10% post-game win expectancy, and they won both games. On the other hand, Colorado State is coming off a brutal loss against San Diego State on the road. The Rams led that game by 14 at halftime and scored just 11 points in the second half. That win would’ve put them in great position to have a shot at a top 5 seed, as well as a conference title. Instead that loss cemented them as a 6 seed at best, and largely ends their hopes of winning the MW regular season. They are going to be eager to come out and redeem themselves for that showing. This Colorado State team overall is SIGNIFICANTLY better than this Utah State team, plus they are playing at home. Utah State is playing much worse basketball than they were earlier in the season. They are also overly reliant on their post player Great Osobor, who has really struggled as of late. His inconsistency will rear it’s head today and the Rams are going to dominate the Aggies. Give me the Rams and lay the 6. Love this spot and this pick
Southern Illinois +4.5 vs. Indiana State
This game is pretty simple. Indiana State started off conference play in the Valley with 13 wins in 14 tries. That led to the team being ranked in the top 25 for the first time since Larry Bird was in school. The problem is it’s a completely different game mentally when you are ranked in the top 25. It’s the same thing when you see a team who isn’t used to being #1 in the country. When they get that ranking they end up losing relatively quickly, because they just aren’t used to having that target on their back. We saw that rear it’s head for the Sycamores against Illinois State the other night where they dropped one at home by double digits to a team at the bottom of the conference. That loss really hurt ISU’s shot at getting in the NCAA Tourney with an at large bid. The issue for them even more-so is now they are going to the toughest venue in the conference. SIU has an extremely underrated home court advantage, and if you follow college basketball closely you’d know how tough it is to play there. That place is going to be absolutely rocking on Saturday night (tip set for 7 P.M. Eastern Time). Additionally, when you’ve had a long winning streak that’s finally broken, the public tends to think that you back the team to bounce back. However, that’s not usually the case. More often what happens is that team on the long winning streak felt like they were unbeatable in that stretch. And now that the streak has been broken, they tend to lose some confidence. This is a TERRIBLE spot for ISU to lose confidence, as the Salukis play a super aggressive, loose style of basketball. I believe this is going to be a very tight game, and I think the Salukis are a real live dog here. In that case, in this spot, we’re taking the points with the home dog in a tough environment to win for opposing teams. Give me the SALUKIS plus the points (+4.5)
Plays Summary:
Top Play: Virginia -1.5
All Other Plays:
South Carolina -4 (1st Half)
South Carolina -7
Illinois -2
Colorado State -6
Southern Illinois +4.5
Best of luck. And if you want all my premium picks, text me at 210-836-8820 or send me an email.
Free College Basketball Pick 2/13/24: Drake @ Evansville
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 13, 2024 | 2:37 P.M. CST
If you are not a paying/premium subscriber, please contact me via email, text, or social media, and you will get all-access to my wagering portfolio on a daily basis. Enjoy the breakdown.
Game: Drake Bulldogs (20-5, 11-3 MVC) @ Evansville Purple Aces (15-10, 6-8 MVC)
Spread: Drake -8 (-110) | Evansville +8 (-110)
Drake Bulldogs:
20-5 Straight Up (SU)
12-12 Against the Spread (ATS)
12-12 Over/Under (O/U)
Drake on the Road: 4-4 Straight Up
Evansville Purple Aces:
15-10 SU
16-7-1 ATS
9-15 O/U
Summary:
Evansville had a fantastic start to the season with a 10-2 record through their first 12 games. Unfortunately late in non-conference they had a skid, and it bled into their conference play. Early on in conference play they had some really bad losses. They lost 7 of their first 8 conference games, and 5 of those 7 losses came by double digits. 3 of those games came by 20+ points, including a 30+ point loss to Bradley and a 49 point loss to Drake the first time these two teams played. Yup, that’s right, they lost by 49.
So why is the line only 8? Well, Evansville is playing much better basketball as of late. In fact since that 1-7 start, the team is 5-1 since then. They were on a 5-game winning streak until it was broken Saturday in a road matchup with Murray State. It took a Murray State buzzer beating 3 to knock off the Purple Aces on the road, and they played some pretty darn good basketball in the loss.
Additionally, when we look at the other team that embarrassed the Purple Aces in the first round of conference play in Bradley, the Braves won that first matchup (at Bradley) by 37. The second matchup between the two came last week and Evansville actually won the game at right on their home floor, 73-70. It was a wild turnaround (40 points). So even though you look at that first matchup between Drake and Evansville and think, man how can they stay within this number? The truth is that the Purple Aces are going to be very competitive in this one, and I actually think they are a live dog.
Now I wouldn’t bet on them moneyline, but I do believe they have a great shot to stay within this number at +8. The Purple Aces are also shooting the ball at a very high rate recently. The past two games they’re shooting 45% from downtown and they’ve hit 18 threes their last two outings. They’ve hit at least 8 threes in 5 of their last 6.
Overall, I believe that the Evansville is going to keep this game very competitive, and they will be motivated to prove they can beat this Drake team, after already avenging one embarrassing loss earlier this week. Give me the PURPLE ACES in this spot plus the points, as we are backing the home dog!!
OFFICIAL PICK: Evansville Purple Aces +8 (Play to +7, Graded at +8)
College Basketball Best Bets Tuesday (1/13/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 13, 2024 | 2:11 A.M. CST
Below are my best bets for Tuesday’s college basketball slate. These are both free plays, released to everyone. If you want to purchase my premium plays, please hit my up via email, text, or social media. These picks will be released early to allow followers to get ahead of line movement today. However, I will try to post these picks with in depth breakdowns tomorrow before tip off occurs. Good luck, and let’s keep the money coming in!!
Best Bets:
Top Play #1 of the Night: Providence -1 vs. St. John’s
2 Units
Short Summary here is that Providence has been really good at home, and they are facing a struggling St. John’s team that has struggled on the road. They’ve all but been eliminated for an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament, and their effort has reflected that in their recent games. They are coming off blowing a big lead at #4 Marquette, and that is likely to wear on their minds coming into this one. Additionally, Providence has been playing some great basketball at home. It’s a super tough place to play. It’s also a revenge spot as St. John’s beat them earlier this season
Top Play #2 of the Night: Butler +4 vs. Marquette
2 Units
Short Summary here is that Butler is playing it’s best basketball of the season, as they have won 6 of their last 7. They’ve lost just twice at home all season, and although it’s not the toughest place to play, it does carry a significant home court advantage. Marquette is a veteran laced team, but they struggled last game at home against St. John’s and required some incredible performances to come back and win that game at home, against an inferior team, mainly from Tyler Kolak (who was outstanding in that game). One thing to note is that Butler actually went into Marquette earlier this season and got a road win against the Golden Eagles. While I normally don’t like playing against a team in a revenge spot, I’m choosing to look at that game differently. I think the Bulldogs are just a poor matchup for the Golden Eagles. Lastly this is just too many points to pass up in this spot. Catching a whole 4 points, at home with an really solid unranked team against a team who is ranked in the top 5 is oddly enough something we don’t get much anymore, largely because the markets have adjusted to these spots. Additionally, this is a HUGE look ahead spot for the Golden Eagles, as they have UCONN on deck this Saturday, and they will no doubt have that game on their minds. That game is a MUST WIN for Marquette to have any shot of winning the regular season Big East Title. It also will solidify them as no worse than the #2 seed in the Big East Tournament. Overall, tough spot for the Golden Eagles, and I’m just always taking the points in a game like this. Give me Butler all day here, and thanks for the 4 extra points Vegas.
College Basketball Play of the Week (Paid Play)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 12, 2024 | 5:17 P.M. CST
Note: If you are viewing this pick, you are a paid customer and I’d like to thank you for joining on. We lost on the Team Total with the Chiefs yesterday, HOWEVER we CASHED BIG on the Chiefs +250 live, when they were down 10-0. We also cashed on the Kyle Jusczyk over .5 recption, over 3.5 receiving yards, and Brandon Aiyuk Under 4.5 Receptions. We finished the night 4-1 with a 7.5 Unit Profit!! Congrats to all who followed, and I’ll continue to produce you guys winners over the long run!! Now let’s get to the play of the day.
Best Bet Monday: Texas Tech -2 vs. Kansas
Units: 3 (We are currently 3-0 on our 3 Unit Plays this year)
Summary: This line is completely off. It opened at -2, while a lot of places have gotten to -3 (I still like it at -3). First off, let’s start with the fact that Top 10 teams on the road this season against unranked opponents are currently winning outright at just a 43% rate (down 30% from the avg. the previous decade). That numbers is even worse in the Big 12. In the Big 12 Conference, UNRANKED TEAMS playing at home against a TOP 10 CONFERENCE OPPONENT are a staggering 8-3 straight up. If Tech pulls off the upset tonight, that would be a 75% win percentage for unranked teams in the Big 12 against Top 10 teams at home. So if you’re wondering why Tech is a 2-3 point favorite here, despite the fact that they are unranked and Kansas is ranked #6, that’s why. So just in terms of the spot, I love taking the home team in this spot. There is no doubt it’s going to be ROCKING tonight in Lubbock, and the Red Raiders will be very up for this game. They are going to get off to a hot start, and that place is going to be going bonkers. I also like that Tech hasn’t played great as of late. They haven’t shot it as well as they have on the season the past couple games, and I think they are due to break out here against a Kansas team that is short handed. We also have a Kanas team who is playing shorthanded (which I’ll get to in a second), and even when healthy this team has really struggled on the road in conference play. The Jayhawks are just 1-4 on the road in the Big 12 this season, and their lone win came against Oklahoma State, who is in last place in the conference with just a single conference victory. They have losses to Central Florida, West Virginia, and Kansas State, none of which are very good this year. The only road loss you can throw out is the Iowa State loss, as everyone tends to lose at Iowa State, and they are a very good basketball team. Then you have the Red Raiders playing at home in one of the better home court environments in the country (at least when the Red Raiders are good).
The Jayhawks come into this game with the best starting lineup in the country WHEN HEALTHY. The problem for them tonight, is they are NOT healthy. Kevin McCullers Jr. (KU’s leading scorer) will miss his second straight game with a shoulder injury, and that is a HUGE loss. McCullers didn’t play Saturday in the Jayhawks game against Baylor at home in Allen Fieldhouse, and the Bears nearly pulled off the upset in a place where NOBODY has won all season. Kansas pulled off a narrow 3-point victory over Baylor, but failed to cover as 5.5 point favorites. In addition to losing McCullers, towards the end of the game against Baylor Dajuan Harris, Kansas’ all-world PG, turned his ankle pretty bad. He did return to the game, but he was clearly hobbled. Bill Self came out and said that he thinks Harris is going to give it a go tonight, however there is no way he’s anywhere near 100% in this one. Now, injuries can be tough for any team to deal with, but they are especially tough for the Jayhawks, because of their lack of depth. As mentioned, they may have the best starting 5 in the country, but even when fully healthy they don’t have anyone off the bench who provides consistent play. Starting tonight in place of McCullers will likely be Nicolas Timberlake. Timberlake, a Towson University transfer, was expected to be a knockdown shooter for the Jayhawks, however he has really struggled so far this season (which caused him to lose most of his minutes in the rotation). He’s also a HUGE step down defensively. Late in the Baylor game he made a number of significant mistakes that led to Baylor getting two WIDE OPEN looks at threes to tie the game in the final seconds. But it’s not just Timberlake who’s struggled. The Jayhawks bench has been awful all season, and due to an illness to Jamari McDowell Kansas actually will only have 7 scholarship players available for them in this game. In addition to the healthy starters and Timberlake, that includes a true freshman who lost his starting spot early in the season, and Christian Braun’s younger brother who is clearly not ready to get minutes in meaningful college basketball games at this level.
Overall, I think this is one of the more mispriced games I’ve seen all season when you take into account spot, health, location, and rankings. Texas Tech would have a legitimate shot to win this game if the Jayhawks were completely healthy, so getting them at -2 (or -3) seems like an absolute steal. I LOVE this pick. It’s one of my favorite picks of the season, hence why it’s a paid, premium play. We’re going with a full 3 units on this one. For those who do not know, that is the second largest play I give out. And we are currently undefeated on our 3 unit plays this season. I have not given out a 4 unit play so this is the largest bet of the season (or tied for it). Let’s get our big time 3-unit wagers to 4-0 tonight with a Red Raider win in Lubbock!!
OFFICIAL PICK: Texas Tech -2 (play to -4) vs. Kansas
Update (February 13, 2024 @ 2:05 A.M. CST):
This play was released live to the public at 11 P.M. CST. Once again if you are NOT a paying customer, you will NOT receive my biggest plays. You will receive my free plays, which are still hitting at a very high rate and will turn profit in the long run. If you want access to my top plays and ALL my action hit me up on social media, email, or phone (I’ll include that info below). Follow me on TikTok or YouTube as well as sometimes I post my picks there (I just don’t say how many units on those videos to be fair to my paying customers). This play was an EASY winner and all my paying customers cashed their tickets. Congrats to all you guys who follow me and thanks for the support!!
Dylan’s Contact Information:
Phone: 210-836-8820 (Text for info or inquiries)
Email: dylanliecksports@gmail.com
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Twitter: @dylanlieck21
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Paid Play Saturday Best Bets
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 10, 2024 | 9:00 A.M. CST
Note: These plays were released to all paying customers at 9:00 A.M. this morning. I set this article to go live at 8:15 P.M. so that they would be posted. All paying customers got all big plays way ahead of line moves and got the best number. Anyone who is viewing this as a non-paying customer, you will get the late games free, however if you want the full slate ahead of line moves text Dylan at 210-836-8820.
Official Best Bets Saturday:
Big Play of the Day: Michigan State -3 vs. Illinois (3 Units)
Other Plays of the Day (All these 2 UNITS)
Bradley -3 vs. Drake
Texas A&M +2 vs. Tennessee
Colorado -1 vs. Arizona
Stanford -2 vs. USC
Small Play of the Day (1 UNIT)
BYU -11 vs. K-State
College Hoops Best Bet (2/4/2024)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 4, 2024 | 10:11 P.M. CST
Today’s Summary: Finished 2-2 on the day, frustrating finish. Our losers were Georgia and Kentucky. Georgia had a double digit first half lead and played fantastic. They unfortunately choked it away in the second half. At the time of my last 5 losses, it was the 5th straight that lost after being ahead by 10 or more at some point in the game. Regardless it was a loss. The other loser was the most dissapointing: Kentucky. Plain and Simple they got outplayed. They were outcoached, as Coach Calipairi is just a horrific basketball coach. Great recruiter but he needs to retire and do something else. He single handedly cost this team the game, and he is going to cost them their season early in the tournament. The wins were relatively easy winners: UNC led the entire game and was never in doubt and Kansas was ahead by double digits from the first 7 minutes all the way to the end of the game. Overall 2-2 day.
The 13 to 1 parlay went 2-1. With the lone loss being Ole Miss, who you guessed it, led by double digits. It feels like if my luck ever turns good I’ll be picking at 80%. Cannot catch a break the last couple weeks and we are STILL POSITIVE!! That’s when you know you “This ain’t no hobby” - we push on and forward. Next play see below
Official Play for Sunday:
Pick: WISCONSIN +2 vs. Purdue
Wisconsin has been playing outstanding basketball this season, but they are exceptional at home. Purdue is obviously a very good team, and they’ve been outstanding in conference play. However they do have two losses on the road in conference (@ Northwestern and @ Nebraska). Wisconsin is not only better than both those teams, but they also have a much better home court advantage. Wisconsin is also coming off a loss last game at Nebraska. It’s also important to note that Wisconsin led in that game by 15 at halftime. They led by as many as 18 in the second half, and yet they found a way to let Nebraska come back and win it. The problem is that the crowd was a huge part of that. Nebraska is undefeated at home in conference, including a double digit win over Purdue. I think off a loss, at home, against a Purdue team that is a bit over rated, this is a fantastic spot for the Badgers. This is an easy pick for me. That doesn’t mean it’s an automatic winner. It just means that I’m backing the Badgers in this spot at this number 100 out of 100 times. Take the Badgers +2 as they will pull off the home upset against the Boilermakers tomorrow.
Units: 2
College Hoops Best Bets (Saturday, 2/3/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 3, 2024 | 4:55 P.M. CST
Best Bets For the College Hoops Slate this Saturday (Official 2U Plays)
Kansas +1.5 vs. Houston (2 Units):
Kentucky +1 vs. Tennessee (2 Units)
Georgia -1 vs. South Carolina (2 Units)
North Carolina -3 vs. Duke (2 Units) - Do not like it at worse than -3
If San Diego State were to get anywhere under 3, either before the game or even if you can find a live early in the game if the Aztecs start slow, Utah State has been due for a loss for a while and SDSU NEEDS this one. I believe the Aztecs will dominate the Aggies, but I’m just not willing to lay 5 points yet.
Opinions/Small Plays: I haven’t bet any of these yet, but I’m considering a few (I’ll note which ones)
Texas A&M -2.5 vs. Florida (this bet I like, but Tyrese Radford, A&M’s PG, got arrested a day ago and his status is uncertain = that matters a lot to this game) - but if this is under 3 and Radford plays, this one has a good chance of getting upgraded to a real play
Clemson -4 vs. Virginia: Virginia is horrific on the road, and don’t let one win at GT fool you. Clemson NEEDS this win, I see the Tigers by close to double digits
Central Florida +1.5 vs. OU: This is a weird one, but I lean to UCF. OU is a weird, inconsistent team
Oki State +1 vs. K-State: This is the game I like the least, but I think Oki State has a good shot. K-State looked like they quit last game, in a huge spot for them, at home against a struggling OU team. They got smoked, and Oki State is due for a win. Coming into this one at home. They’ve played some real tough, close games at home against teams way better than K-State. Talent wise there really isn’t much gap. And I think Jerome Tang may have lost the team. K-State just is a weird team which is what is keeping me off this one right now.
St. John’s +3 vs. UCONN: St. John’s is a very weird team. But they play really well at home, and really poorly on the road. UCONN is due for a road loss, as it’s just too hard to keep winning against good teams away from home. The fact that it’s UCONN is keeping me away at the moment. I have a lot of respect for Dan Hurley and that program, and they are the most talented, well-coached team in the country.
ML Parlays:
1) Safer Option: Kentucky +100 | Kansas +110
Pays 3.2 to 1 (I think both teams win at home and getting nearly 3.5 to 1 is a good number)
2) Longer Shot Option: Central Florida +110 | Ole Miss +140 | Louisville +200
Pays 13 to 1
PAID CBB Play of the Month Recap
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 3, 2024 | 4:35 A.M. CST
Because I have a select few people currently purchasing my top plays of the month, most of my 3-4 unit plays will not be posted on this website to the public until they are recapped following the game. If you wish to purchase these plays, please contact me at 210-836-8820. You’ll never pay for a play if it loses, only if it wins. And you will only get plays that I have bet myself at the numbers I officially can get.
Play of the Month Recap
Sport: College Basketball
Pick: Nebraska PK vs. #6 Wisconsin
Units: 3
Result: Winner
Summary:
For my official play of the month, a 3-unit paid play, we went back to a familiar spot, backing a BIG 10 team at home against a ranked opponent. The transfer portal has largely leveled the playing field in college hoops, and long gone are the days of backing the ranked road favorites to cover numbers. That said, this game was anything but easy. The plain, simple truth is that I knew going into this one that there was many possible paths to victory for Nebraska, and this was a TERRIFIC spot for them, while it was a terrible spot for Wisconsin.
The #6 Badgers have absolutely exceeded expectations this season, but I believe we reached the peak of their market value in this one, which is partially why I liked it. Wisconsin came into that game with only one conference loss, tied for first place in the Big 10. The team they were tied with, the Purdue Boilermakers, are coming to Madison on Sunday, so this was a classic look ahead spot. We add to that the gravity of the game for Nebraska, as the Cornuskers badly needed this win over a top 10 team to boost their NCAA Tournament Resume. Additionally, Nebraska got back Juwan Gary, one of their top players who had missed a significant amount of time. Nebraska was also 11-1 at home this season, and undefeated (a perfect 5-0) at home in conference. They have a very underrated home court advantage. So we have a healthy Nebraska team, at home where they are excellent, in a spot where they badly need a quality win, facing off against a Wisconsin team in a look ahead spot, who was due for a poor performance, playing on the road where they’ve been average this season so far. Lastly, add to the fact that the Cornhuskers already dismantled #1 Purdue at home earlier this season, and that was a Purdue team I feel is way better than Wisconsin (at least in terms of talent).
Unfortunately, the game could not have started more poorly for the Huskers. AJ Storr, the sophomore transfer from St. John’s for the Badgers, started the game off with back-to-back 3s, and scored Wisconsin’s first 10 points without missing from the field in that stretch. The Huskers dug themselves quite the first half hole, and despite a little run before halftime to cut it to single digits, the Badgers responded well and took a 16 point lead into halftime. Going into halftime, two things were true. One was last year, where the Huskers trailed AT WISCONSIN by 14 points, but came back to force overtime and win the game. Two was that since 2000, Wisconsin was 120-0 when leading by 15 or more at halftime (they led by 16). But, that doesn’t matter for our Huskers! They made a furious run, and their shots finally began falling. They were able to get the game back to even, before once again giving Wisconsin control of the game. They trailed by 7 with just 4 minutes to play, but found a way to go on an 11-4 run to finish regulation. The Badgers were able to score with just 20 seconds left to tie the game, and Nebraska couldn’t hit a buzzer beater, which led this one into overtime (advantage Nebraska).
In the overtime, Mast (Husker’s big man) took over the game with some huge buckets in the post down the stretch, and Nebraska pulled off the incredible comeback to win the game. It wasn’t pretty, and despite all the bad luck we’ve caught in football season this year (where we still finished over 64% in NFL and nearly 59% in college) we finally got one to go our way. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. Or at least to not be unlucky.
Official Play’s of the Month Record: 2-0 (College Hoops) +6.0 Units
Check out my most recent blog post for my best bets for this SATURDAY as we have an absolutely LOADED SLATE!!
College Basketball Best Bets (1/27/2024)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 27, 2024 | 2:38 P.M. CST
Best Bets (2U)
1) Boise State -2.5 vs. Utah State
2) Richmond +3 vs. Dayton
Love these two plays
Small Play Opinions:
1) Iowa State -3.5
2) Miami -4
3) Florida State +7
4) NW -2.5
5) Mississippi State +2.5
College Basketball Best Bet (1/24/2024): Northwestern vs. Illinois, Back the Home Dog
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 24th, 2024 | 5:33 P.M. CST
College Basketball Best Bet Tonight: NW Wildcats
Official Pick: Northwestern +3 vs. Illinois
Units: 2
Summary: Look this one is simple, Northwestern has been a giant killer at home this season. They’ve already beaten #2 Purdue as a big underdog at home earlier this season. This is just a line we’re not going to get an opportunity a lot this season. Book have done a great job adjusting to home teams in college basketball the past few seasons, so a lot of times a team like NW is a short favorite in this spot. Working in our favor is the fact that Illinois has a few solid road victories this season. They also just got star Guard Terrance Shannon back last game. Shannon was accused of rape, but was granted a temporary stay to allow him to play while the case is being handled. Shannon came off the bench last game for the Fighting Illini in a 20+ point home win over Rutgers. He played 28 minutes. He had 16 points, although half of his points came from the free throw line. The problem is, this is a HUGE distraction, and that game came at home. How do Shannon and the team respond in a hostile environment with their star player having a rape allegation hanging over his head?
Secondly, Northwestern is inconsistent this season, but they’re really good when their on. When playing at their peak, they have the ability to play with anyone in the country, and we’ve seen that multiple times this season. As mentioned they beat Purdue earlier this year when the Boilermakers were ranked #1 in the land. The Wildcats are also undefeated at home in conference play so far this season. They are coming off a road loss to Nebraska, and the last two times they dropped a road game and followed it up with a home conference game, they won both times. On the other hand Illinois is just 2-2 on the road this season, and their road wins came against Michigan and Rutgers (the two teams tied for last place in the Big 10). Additionally, they are coming off playing both those teams in their last two contests, so this is a step up in class for the Fighting Illini. So this is a fantastic spot for the Northwestern Wildcats. That environment is going to be electric tonight, so let’s back Northwestern +3. If you want to sprinkle a little on the ML at +130 that isn’t a terrible idea either, but officially we’re grading at +3. Wildcats will pull off the big upset at home tonight and we will likely see a court storming.
Official Pick: NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS +3
NFL Divisional Round Best Bets
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 19, 2024 | 11:19 P.M. CST
Best Bets:
2 Team, 7 Point Teaser: Ravens -2.5 to 49ers -2.5
2 Units (Must get both teams to below the key number of 3)
Prop Bets:
Cade Otton (TE, Tampa Bay) OVER 30.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Rashad White (RB, Tampa Bay) UNDER 16.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS
1 Unit Each
College Basketball Best Bets 1/20/24
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 19, 2024 | 10:45 P.M. CST
Official CBB Best Bets: 25-9 (74%), +30.2 Units
Overall Record (All CBB Plays, Best Bets + Opinions & 1U Plays): 45-26 (63%), +31.5 Units
Note: In this article, I’m going to post my best bets and all my opinions and parlays. The BEST BETS (Official Plays will only count towards the top record). The opinions/small plays count for the overall record, not the official best bets. Same for the parlays. Please make sure to always try to get the number I give out, unless I say (Okay to play to “X” number). But I will always grade the bet based on the number I got, which will always be posted here. So here we go for Saturday’s Slate!!
This article will NOT have breakdowns on the games, however if you look back later tonight or tomorrow I should have breakdowns for just the Official Best Bets!!
Best Bets (Official Website Plays) = 2 Units
1) Boise State +1 vs. San Diego State
2) Florida State +1.5 vs. Clemson
3) Texas Tech ML (-120 or better) vs. BYU: I would try to take ML if it’s not more than -120, but you can also lay -2. I’m got ML at -119
4) Iowa +8.5 vs. Purdue
5) Boston College +8.5 vs. North Carolina
6) GT +1.5 vs. Virginia
7) Seton Hall +1.5 vs. Creighton
Non-Best Bet (1 Unit Plays):
1) St. John’s +1.5 vs. Marquette
2) Syracuse -1.5 vs. Miami
3) Arkansas -2.5 vs. South Carolina
4) Missouri +3 vs. Florida
5) Arizona State -1 vs. USC
6) TCU -3 vs. Iowa State
7) Stanford -1 vs. Washington
8) San Francisco -1 vs. St. Mary’s
9) George Mason -1 vs. St. Bonaventure
10) Texas -1 vs. Baylor (this BARELY made the cut, I would tread lightly here)
ML Parlay #1: Iowa +270 to Beat Purdue | Boston College +270 to Beat UNC
= Pays 12.7 to 1 (This one is a bigger long shot, but it’s live) = sprinkle a few bucks only if you play it
ML Parlay #2: Boise State +100 to Beat SDSU | FSU +110 to Beat Clemson | Seton Hall +110 to beat Creighton
= Pays 7.8 to 1 (I like this one because these are essentially Pick ‘Ems and you can get a parlay at an extra 1.8x on your money) = again small sprinkle on these
BEST OF LUCK GUYS!!
College Hoops Best Bets (1/16/2024)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 16, 2024 | 5:45 P.M. CST
Sorry for the late post. Won’t get into breakdowns so I post this quick. Here are my 6 bets for tonight. All 2U
Best Bets:
1) Indiana +9.5 vs. Purdue
2) Cinci -3 vs. TCU
3) NC State -2 vs. Wake
4) Oki State +7.5 vs. Kansas
5) K-State PK vs. Baylor
6) BYU -4 vs. Iowa State
Current Website Record CBB: 21-7 (75%)
College Hoops Best Bets (1/13/2024)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 13th, 2024 | 12:03 A.M. CST
College football is over and that means it’s time to LOCK IN on college basketball. And we’ve got a massive slate on deck for this Saturday. If you want some NFL playoff bets, check out my next blog post with my Wild Card Best Bets. But let’s jump right into our plays for college hoops this Saturday.
Play #1: Butler -4 vs. Seton Hall
Butler is back at home coming off a massive win over Marquette on the road, which broke a 3-game losing streak for the Bulldogs. However, that losing streak included two losses on the road, as well as a third loss against UCONN (who I believe is the best, most complete team in the country). This Butler team was solid in the non-conference, with their only two losses coming at Michigan State and against a very good FAU team. The win over Marquette got this group back on track, and we know they have the ability to beat anyone in the country. But I love them in this spot because of the home court - they have one of the best home court advantages in the country (probably the best in the Big East). They have home wins over Texas Tech and Boise State earlier this season, both of which look like much better wins with how those two teams have played as of late
As for Seton Hall, they’ve been playing outstanding as of late. There is no way around that; they are playing some great basketball. They’re 4-1 in their past 5 games with wins over UCONN, Marquette, and Providence. However, when you look at those wins, there is a story to each. The wins over Marquette and UCONN both came at home. The win over UCONN included the Huskies star big man (Donovan Clingan) going down to an injury early in that game. That played a large role in the outcome of that game, as the injury came early in the first half. The win over Providence did come on the road, however once again Seton Hall caught some good fortune; Bryce Hopkins, the star forward for Providence, tore his ACL late in the first half of that game. So their wins look a little less impressive when taking these things into account. Lastly, the faced a Georgetown team on the road earlier this week that has really struggled this season, yet Seton Hall trailed with under 2 minutes to play. They had a few really fortunate bounces go their way late, and they needed every one of them to win the game, as they failed to cover as 7.5 point favorites on the road.
This just feels like a spot that Seton Hall finally lets everyone down. They have been playing great, but again their is noise in some of those outcomes and numbers. They still are not a very good shooting team on the season, and they don’t have a road victory against a team as good as this Butler team is. I like the Bull Dogs in this spot all day, at home, laying just 4. I make this line closer to 6.5
Play #2: New Mexico -2 vs. San Diego State
The Lobos of New Mexico were off to a terrific start this season before conference play began. They came into the start of Mountain West play with a 12-1 record, however everyone knows it’s hard to win on the road in a big time conference, which is exactly what the Mountain West is becoming. The Lobos have dropped 2 of their last 3, with losses to UNLV and Colorado State. However, once again, their is always a story & both of those losses came on the road to solid teams. UNLV isn’t fantastic, but they are solid on their home floor, and they’re playing better as of late. The other loss to Colorado State is not a surprising loss in their own right, as the Rams of CSU are easily a Top 25 team in the country this year. The Lobos are still undefeated at home this season, and I believe they will remain that way after Saturday’s game.
The defending National Runner Up in the NCAA tourney is off to another great start to the season. After going 11-2 in non-conference, they have started off league play with a perfect 3-0 conference record. However, the schedule has benefited the Aztecs as they played 2 of those 3 games at home, and their 3 opponents so far in conference play will all likely finish in the bottom half of the Mountain West (with the possible exception of UNLV). The Aztecs have two losses this season, but both came on the road in hostile environments. They lost early in the year at BYU (who has looked much worse recently), and at Grand Canyon in a close game. Their other two road games included a win over Gonzaga, which is very impressive, although Gonzaga is significantly down this year from previous seasons (they have 5 losses, including two nights ago to Santa Clara). Their last outing on the road came against a 7-10 SJSU team who is also 0-3 in conference play, and the Aztecs barely squeaked out a victory.
My biggest issue with SDSU, though, is their inconsistency. Although their record looks good on the surface, they actually SHOULD have 2 more losses on their record, to UC Irvine and UC San Diego. They squeaked out 1 point victories against both teams. They trailed in both games by 3+ with under a minute to play, and they had less than a 10% chance to win each game (they had a 1% chance to beat San Diego at one point late). Yet somehow they won both games. So just for sake of argument, if SDSU loses both of those games, this line is likely NM -6. To me that’s a good way to steal some value and I’ll take it.
Play #3: Texas A&M -2 vs. Kentucky
This is just a classic spot for A&M here → Kentucky comes into this game hot as an iron stove in a kitchen full of Italians, and A&M can’t buy a win as of late. It’s absolute desperation mode for the Aggies in this spot, and they get to do it at home against a young Kentucky team who has a lot of kids who have only seen this type of environment once or twice in their careers. Let’s look at A&M’s season though. This was a team that was ranked as high as #12 in the country early in the season. They battled through some injuries and despite a lack of health, they still entered conference play without a bad loss. They definitely would’ve liked to have won a few more games, but their 4 losses in the non-conference came against FAU on a neutral, at Virginia, vs. Memphis, and vs. Houston on a neutral (3 of those 4 ranked in the top 25 currently, the other right outside). They also had wins over Ohio State and SMU on the road, as well as Iowa State on a neutral. But that string of no bad losses ended last weekend when they were hammered by a bad LSU team at home by 15+ points. They followed it up with a loss at Auburn, and now here they sit, staring down the barrel of a possible 0-3 start to conference play. This is as MUST WIN of a game as it gets. And that’s why we see the 9-6 Ags laying 2 points against the #6 UK Wildcats coming in 12-2 (2-0, SEC).
Since losing at home to UNC Wilmington back in early December, the Wildcats have rattled off 7 in a row, including 2 straight to start conference play. This is no doubt one of the most talented teams Cal has had in his time at UK, and they no doubt will have a shot to make a real tourney run this year with their guard play. But as mentioned before this is just a horrific spot for them. Despite the improvements, this is still a very young team, and a team who did lose to UNC Wilmington at home a month and a half ago. I just think the environment, the desperation, and the situational spot are too much to overcome for the Wildcats. Give me the Aggies in a SEASON DEFINING Win at home.
Play #4: Notre Dame +1 vs. Florida State
This one is pretty simple. ND’s total resumé against Florida State’s total resumé is a no-brainer. FSU has the better wins, the better schedule, and they’ve obviously got the better record. However, FSU was just the beneficiary of a very weak start to conference play. They got to play 3 consecutive home ACC games in a row coming into this matchup, and all 3 were against unranked teams (GT, VT, & Wake). The game ag ainst GT is a game they absolutely should win at home. The game against VT is as well, yet they absolutely gave the game away late, giving VT a chance to actually win it, despite leading by 10 with under 2 minutes to play. Wake is the only really impressive win they have, but it plays to our advantage that it just happened. This is still a Seminoles team that lost to Lipscomb a few weeks ago.
Now they are traveling on the road to a Notre Dame team that, once again, in totality doesn’t look very good. But anyone who has watched them play as of late can see that they are playing MUCH better basketball. They are playing super hard, and they’ve got a really good Point Guard in Markus Burton, who can fill it up. ND finally got over the hump in their previous game with a big road win over GT in Overtime. But even before that, they played Duke as 14.5 point underdogs at home last Saturday, and they really gave the Blue Devils all they could handle. Duke was a missed 3 pointer or two away from losing that game outright to the Fighting Irish. I know that crowd is going to be outstanding, which will help. But also, I just don’t see how FSU scores in the half court here. Notre Dame is actually outstanding defending in the half court, they just struggled to score the ball. The only way FSU can score effectively here is if they turn ND over a ton. If they can’t do that, which will be harder to do with Burton handling the ball and ND being at home, I don’t see how the Seminoles win this one. Give me ND all day at home here in a great spot to get a win.
Play #5: Missouri -2 vs. South Carolina
I’m going to keep this one short and sweet, just like my handicap on this game was. Why? Because it’s pretty simple here. South Carolina has played 2 true road games this season thus far. They lost both. The first was early in the year at Clemson, which didn’t look bad until Clemson took a dive the past two weeks. They then went on the road for the second time this week and got absolutely pummeled by Bama by nearly 30. Now they have to go on the road to a desperate Missouri team who badly needs a conference win. They haven’t played great lately, but they still have some talent there, and they still have a great home court environment.
I’m taking Missouri in this one and I think they win it easily. This is a great spot for the Tigers against a team who struggles on the road in hostile environments.
Play #6: TCU +5 vs. Houston
The truth of the matter is I don’t think TCU is some outstanding team by any means. However, what I do know is they 100% should be 2-0 in conference. They were absolutely robbed in Lawerence against Kansas last Saturday. They had the ball and a 1 point lead with under a minute to play, after securing a defensive rebound. Kansas was going to have to decide whether to foul or play it out, and either way, TCU has a massive advantage late. However a video review by the officials determined there was a flagrant foul on TCU, giving Kansas 2 free throws and the ball back. So it went from TCU ball up 1 with 50 seconds left, to down by 3 next time they touched the ball. It was a disgusting way to end a basketball game and the officials should be ashamed of themselves.
That said, it’s good for us in the betting market, because this game should be closer to a pick ‘em. I’m not sure TCU wins this game outright, but they definitely have a shot. And catching 5 points at home in a conference game is a nice pillow to have.
Looking at Houston, this is a team that is simple to break down because they always do the same thing. They are always ELITE in three areas: Defensively, toughness, and on the offensive glass. They always struggle to score the ball at times, rely too much on their guards and 1v1 isolations, and they foul way too much due to their physicality and crashing the glass so hard. One thing I really like about this matchup is that Houston has played in a much weaker conference in the past 5 years (since they’ve become a powerhouse in cbb). However, now they have transitioned to the Big 12, and now they are playing a much different caliber of athlete on a given night. They don’t get to go on the road and play East Carolina anymore. Instead, coming off a tough loss to Iowa State on the road, now they travel to a very good TCU team. And I think it will be really interesting to see how they respond if TCU jumps on them early in a wild environment. I think it could easily go south for them quick, knowing that this team is just as talented as they are. TCU is also just as athletic as Houston, and that will play a role as well, as Houston won’t have a size, athletic, or speed advantage whatsoever.
We are definitely rolling with the Horned Frogs +5 here. I also think this game is going to go way under, only because both teams struggle mightily to score in the half court. But we’re not going to touch the total = give me the Horned Frogs, and we will call them a live dog because they are!!
Play #7: Richmond -3 vs. George Mason
It’s funny, because Richmond has become a staple for me during conference play the last few seasons. Why? Because they LOVE their Spiders down in Richmond, Virginia. That place sells out damn near every night, and it’s a very underrated home court advantage that few people know about. They pulled the upset as the home dog last week against St. Bonaventure as a 3 point dog. Now they are laying 3 at home against a very solid George Mason team.
The Spiders have won 5 in a row and they are off to a 2-0 start in conference play. This would be a huge win for them. I do think this game will be a battle until the end, but only laying 3 with this strong of a home court advantage where I see the two teams as pretty equal on a neutral floor. I’ll take the Spiders all day. Give me Richmond here
Quick Opinions: these are not official plays but things I put a few bucks on or liked on initial look:
Kansas -6 vs. OU
TTU -6 vs. K-State
Georgia +8 vs. Tennessee
Louisville +8 vs. NC State
Wake Forest -5 vs. Virginia
Santa Clara +5 vs. St. Mary’s
Southern Illinois +2.5 vs. Drake
VT -3 vs. Miami
Mississippi State -2 vs. Bama
WVU +6 vs. Texas
UNLV +2 vs. Utah State
→ Once again I would not play these for more than fun or a few bucks. The official 7 plays at the top are all 2 unit plays and they are solid plays, backed by significant research and statistical models. These 11 here are based on just one of these = either a good number in my model/power rankings, a good matchup, or a good spot
College Hoops Best Bets (1/9/2024)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 9th, 2024 | 4:51 P.M. CST
We crowned a National Champion last night in Houston, Texas, as the Michigan Wolverines claimed their first college football undisputed national title since 1948. Now that the college football season is over, we can transition to one of my favorite sports to handicap: College Basketball. We’ve been off to a BLISTERING hot start here on the website, with a 17-4 record (81%). Let’s see if we can keep it going tonight as there are some great spots for some wagers on the slate. Enjoy the #1 sports handicapping in the world for college basketball.
Play #1: Iowa State +3 vs. Houston: This is a great spot for the Cyclones, coming off a loss, now back at home where it’s really tough to win. You have a Houston team coming in with that #2 ranking beside their name, which skews the view of each team. We’re backing the dog in this spot every single time. Give me the Cyclones, as I believe they pull off the home upset over the Cougs tonight.
Play #2: Georgetown +7 vs. Seton Hall: Seton Hall has been playing some great basketball. In the past few weeks they’ve upset both UCONN and Marquette, both top 10 teams in the nation. However, both those wins were at home. Now they hit the road to take on a Georgetown team who has been very underwhelming this season. It’s a classic let down spot for Seton Hall here, and although Georgetown isn’t very good, Ed Cooley is still a very good coach. We’ll back the home dog here as well. Give me Georgetown all day here. There is a chance Georgetown struggles to shoot the ball here, and this one gets away from them, but 7 points is too much to pass up against a Seton Hall team that is inconsistent offensively.
Play #3: West Virginia +2 vs. K-State: Speaking of underwhelming teams, that is exactly what West Virginia has been this season. They are 5-9 and they are taking on an 11-3 K-State team. So why is the line just 2? Because K-State’s record masks a lot of problems that the Cats have had this season. They have a couple of bad losses, and they have relied heavily on winning games at home. Now they have to go on the road to a hostile environment against a conference opponent. Fans should be back in the stands here as schools start to get students back from Winter Break. Once again we will take the home dog here.
Pick #4: Nebraska +7.5 vs. Purdue: I’m just going to continue fading Purdue on the road until they drop another one. They dropped their first true road game against Northwestern (who’s been awful since), but they’ve rebounded with back-to-back road wins (and covers). It’s just too difficult to continue to go into hostile environments in conference, against teams that are familiar playing you, and continue to cover big numbers. Nebraska looks to be at full strength, and that gym will be PACKED for the #1 team in the nation coming to town. Once again we’re backing the home dog here (see the trend). I think Nebraska has a shot to pull the outright upset. Let’s hope we see a court storming in Lincoln tonight.
Pick #5: Pittsburgh +5.5 vs. Duke: So, yeah we’re going to take another home dog tonight. And it’s another ugly one in the Pittsburgh Panthers. Look when the Panthers are bad, it’s really bad. When it’s good, it’s really good, largely because they rely so heavily on the three-ball. Pittsburgh has lost a couple of home conference games already this season (Clemson & UNC) and they really struggled to shoot the ball in both games. However, the crowd should be back at full strength tonight (which it was not in those two games). Pittsburgh last season under Jeff Capel had some big upsets at home, and I think we see one tonight over Duke. The Blue Devils have been pretty underwhelming as a whole this season, but especially on the road. They struggled to pull away against ND on the road on Saturday night. They pulled out the win, but never had a chance to cover against a ND team that’s much worse than this Pittsburgh team. Once again, we have a live dog here in the Panthers, with a shot to get a big win in ACC play.
Pick #6: Baylor -4 vs. BYU: Alas, we finally took a favorite!! But let’s not stray too far, as we are sticking with a home team in conference play. BYU has been really solid this season, and I’ve actually been unimpressed with Baylor so far this season. That said, they picked up a big road win at Oki State last week. DJ Dennis has been absolutely outstanding so far this season, and that should continue tonight, at home against a less than stellar defense for the Cougars. The Bears also are the best 3-point shooting team in the country, but they had a terrible night from beyond the arc in the win over Oki State. I think they will bounce back in front of their home crowd tonight. I would not be surprised to see north of 10 threes made (maybe 15) for the Bears. They love the three-ball and the Cougars are significantly worse defending the perimeter on the road (See Utah game). The Cougars have only seen one road game this season with a crowd similar to this one, and they struggled mightily. I think 4 is too short of a number. I make this closer to 7. Give me the Bears to win big here. I see a double digit victory here.
All Units are 1 for these plays. However, I would say my favorite play is Iowa State. I did put a little bit more on that play than the others, just because I love the Iowa State home court so much, as well as the fact that it’s just hard to win as a highly ranked team on the road in conference. Good luck to all who tail!!