Sweet 16 Best Bets (3/28/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 28, 2024 | 5:11 P.M. CST

Best Bets for Two Days of Sweet 16 Action (All 2 Units)

1) UNC -4 vs. Bama

2) Houston -3.5 vs. Duke

3) Purdue -4.5 vs. Gonzaga

NCAA Tournament Best Bets Round of 64 (3/21/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 21, 2024 | 1:51 P.M. CST

2 Top Bets of the NCAA Tournament Round 1 (2 Units Each) 

Best Bet #1: 11 New Mexico Lobos -125 vs. 6 Clemson 

In this century in the NCAA tournament (Since 2000), when an 11 seed is FAVORED over a 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament the 11 seeds have won outright 11 out of 15 times and they are 11-4 Against the Spread in those games. That’s a nice trend to back this pick, but it’s in no way why I like the Lobos here. I LOVE the Lobos in this game for a number of reasons, including the makeup of the team, the improvement of Richard Patino as a coach, and their performance down the stretch in the MW tourney. 

Let’s start with the makeup of this team. We know that in this time of year you do not want to be a team that relies heavily on big men. Think about Purdue last year, relying so heavily on Zach Edey, only to get bounced in Round 1. Or Arizona, who’s top 2 highest usage players were 7 footers, only to get upset by 15 seed Princeton. It’s just difficult this time of year, in a tournament setting, in a day and age when threes and efficient scoring are important, for teams to heavily rely on post ups and slow big men. GUARDS DOMINATE MARCH. And New Mexico has 3 of the best guards in the country; in fact, they may have THE BEST trio of guards in the country in Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn Jr, and Donovan Dent. This set of Lobo guards combine to average 45 points this season, with each of them averaging 14+ PPG. They are lead by Jaelen House (north of 17 per game) who has been phenomenal as of late. In the MW Championship House went for 28, while Mashburn went for 21. The thing that makes this trio so scary is the fact that on any given night ANY one of these guys can give you 25+ and we’ve seen it throughout the season. In that MW Championship game, Dent went out with flu like symptoms early in the game. He ended up playing just 13 minutes, and did not score. Most teams losing a 15 PPG scorer mid game would be significantly hindered. It did not matter to the Lobos, as House and Mashburn combined for just shy of SIXTY, as they went on to take down the MW Conference Tourney Title. 

All of that and I didn’t even mention Jacob Toppin, the freshman of the year in the MW conference. This kid has legitimately gotten better every single game he’s played. He’s going to be an absolute force in this conference over the next few seasons, and I actually believe he has a shot to be a pro at some point. He has elite athleticism, he’s an incredible shot blocker and he has great putback ability on the offensive glass. Combine him with NM’s other big man and they are really hard to score on at the rim. The Lobos led the MW in blocked shots. They are a deceptively good defensive team, largely due to the aggressiveness of the guards forcing TO’s and the combination of the big men down low blocking shots (Top 25 in Defensive efficiency according to KenPom). 

Then we look at Clemson’s side, and they are the exact mold of a team I hate playing on in the tourney. They rely heavily on back to the basket post ups and their leading scorer is their big man. This doesn’t mean that Clemson can’t win this game; this is the NCAA tournament where weird things happen, and it’s a one-game sample size. However, in the long run, you are going to be much more profitable when betting close to pick ‘em games, backing the team with better guards, better scorers, and more offense. And that’s exactly what NM has. Clemson has also been reeling down the stretch. They lost in their first game of the ACC tournament to non-NCAA tourney team Boston College by 21. It would be one thing if Clemson was playing good basketball at the end of the year, and just had one bad outing against a BC team that got hot, but that’s not the case. Instead, they lost 2 of their last 3 regular season games (3 of their last 4 overall, including the BC loss). Their last loss of the season came against a Wake Forest team that was on a 3-game losing streak going into that game. They also lost at Notre Dame by 7 as a 7.5 point favorite; and that was a Notre Dame team that finished the season 3rd to last in the ACC. 

Early in the year, this Clemson team was on a role, starting off 11-1 overall, with their only loss coming by 2 points at Memphis, who at the time was ranked in the top 25 in the country. Since January 1st however, the Tigers are a .500 basketball team. They are the 49th best team in the country according to Torvik. Again, it would be one thing if you looked at this team and they were up and down all year. But that wasn’t the case. They have been playing poorly for a long time now, and it just doesn’t feel like they have some ability to turn it on in the tournament. Not to mention, I think they are the significantly LESS talented group here. New Mexico CLEARLY has the best two guards on the floor, and they might even have the best 3. Clemson has the best big, in Hall, but as I mentioned before, I’ll take guards over bigs in the tourney 7 days a week, and twice on Sunday. Or in our case, once on Friday. 

On the other side, New Mexico is coming off their hottest stretch of the season, as they ran through the MW Tourney, winning 4 straight, and covering all 4 games. They were an underdog in two of the games, and they beat 3 tournament teams in that stretch as well. But what was even more impressive was their mental toughness. They have definitely had their lows this season, but they never faltered in this run, despite the fact that they KNEW that they probably were on the outside looking in if they didn’t win the whole tourney. After leading the MW Title game the whole way against SDSU, they blew a double digit lead and actually trailed by 4 late in the ball game. However, they did not panic, and a couple of BIG putbacks from Toppin got them back squared. They came up with some massive stops late, and House put on his superman cape to take over scoring duties in the final 4 minutes, with Toppin operating as Robin to House’s Batman. I’ll also add a little state I loved that I heard from someone earlier this week: New Mexico is 8-0 ATS on a neutral floor this year. This makes me feel even better, considering they are an altitude team. 

Overall, I love the Lobos here as the higher seeded favorite. Richard Patino showed me a lot in the MW tourney, being able to prep for teams despite having basically zero practice time and less than a day to prepare. Yes, he now has to face a much less familiar opponent, but he’s also got a full 4 days to prep for this Clemson team. I believe he will come up with a really good plan to attack Clemson’s suspect perimeter defense, and I believe he will develop a good plan to attempt to take Hall’s post ups away. But EVEN if he doesn’t come up with the perfect gameplan, he’s shown to be a great in-game adjuster as well as of late. So I trust Pitino to get it done in this spot. The Lobos have been basically playing NCAA tourney games for the past week, so what’s one more here against a very beatable team who’s been trending down for three months? GIVE ME THE LOBOS. I think they win this one, and I actually think they beat Baylor in round 2. Lobos to the Sweet 16. But all we need is to get them to the round of 32. Try to find a cheap Moneyline (-130 or better) anything more than -130 and go ahead and lay the 2. 

OFFICIAL BEST BET #1: New Mexico Lobos -130 (ML) or -2 (-110) 

Best Bet #2: 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders -4.5 vs. 11 NC State Wolfpack 

We’re going to keep both our best bets for the 1st Round in the 6/11 matchups, and this one is the battle of the red squads. The reincarnation of the Cardiac kids against the Pistols of the Red Raiders. And we’re definitely rolling with the GUNS UP in this one. This is clearly a buy low, sell high spot on these teams. Not that Texas Tech is at a big time low spot, but they are coming off a really bad loss in the Big 12 tournament at the hands of the Houston Cougars. But to be fair to Tech, a lot of teams have got smacked by Houston that exact same way this season. Luckily for the Red Raiders this matchup is much more favorable. They face an NC State team that had to win 5 games in 5 nights in order to even get into the NCAA Tournament. Going into the ACC Tourney, the Wolfpack were just 17-14 overall, with a losing record in the conference (9-11). They were the #10 seed in their conference tournament, and going into the tourney they knew that a loss in any round would mean that they were either headed to the NIT or they were done for the year. Instead, they rattled off 5-consecutive wins to get into the tourney. Now they sit facing the fourth place team from the best conference in the country, and yet we’ve seen the public lean towards the Wolfpack. 

Let’s take a look at NC State’s run to the ACC Tournament Title first. The first two games the Wolfpack beat two non-tournament teams in Louisville and Syracuse. The Louisville win you can throw out the window (they’re 8-24), and the Syracuse win isn’t bad. But when you look at the two teams, NC State’s talent level is significantly higher than the Orange. Then comes the quarter-finals where the Wolfpack knocked off the Duke Blue Devils by 5. And while, yes, that looks like a great win on the surface, I’m just not sold on Duke this season. I’ve been down on the ACC as a whole, but especially Duke due to their inability to defend and their significant lack of toughness. NC State was able to exploit that and almost BULLY Duke at times in that game. The last thing you are going to do to Pop Issac and Joe Toussaint is bully them. Then we look at the semi-final game where NC State took on Virginia. With under a minute and a half to play, NC State trailed by 5 when DJ Burns committed an intentional foul. Virginia was shooting 2 free throws, up by 5, with under 1:30 to go in the game. Right there NC State’s season should’ve been over. Instead, Reece Beekman went to the FT line and missed BOTH. Still UVA had the ball up 5 and was able to run the clock down to close to 1:00 before getting fouled again. This time Beekman split a pair to put UVA up 6. On the ensuing possession Ryan Dunn of UVA fouled an NC State shooter on a three, giving NC State a free three points. After a couple back and forths NC State could not knock down a three to tie it, and they were forced to foul with just 6 seconds left. They also fouled the best free throw shooter on the team in Isaac McKneely (88% on the season). Because it was only the 9th team foul, McKneely shot a 1-and-1 and improbably missed the front end, allowing NC State one last chance to tie it. Inexplicably Tony Bennett decided NOT to foul in this situation which probably would’ve ended the game right there. Instead, NC State got up a three at the buzzer. Now, in Bennett’s defense, this shot goes in 1 out of 1,000 times. But still, if you foul there you win 1,000 out of 1,000 times. Somehow, someway Michael O’Connell willed the ball in the basket, calling glass while doing it. The ball not only hit the window, but spun around the rim about 5 times before finally falling in, sending the game to overtime. NC State went on to win in overtime, and went on to upset top seeded North Carolina in the ACC championship (another overrated ACC team), securing their bid to the tournament. 

All of that above said, we have an NC State team that went into the ACC tourney just three games above .500. They absolutely do not deserve to be in the NCAA tournament based on how they beat Virginia, and they were not a deserving team in the entire regular season either. So we have a recency bias influencing this line. Secondly, we have a team who had to play 5 games in 5 days in order to just get here. Not only that, but their best player, who is listed at 270 lbs, is likely about 320 lbs. So the wear and tear on his legs in that run was brutal. Meanwhile, although Tech got smashed by Houston, they played only 2 games in their conference tourney, and both were blowouts. So they are going to come into this game much more rested than the Wolfpack. Tech is going to try to speed this game up. They want to play up-tempo, push the pace, and shoot a ton of threes. Tech does have a few injuries to their squad, but these are not new. They’ve been dealing with them for 3+ weeks now, and at this point they’ve been able to figure out how to play with this new lineup. 

Overall, this number is just short. Tech on a neutral a week ago would be laying 6.5, maybe even 7, so we’re grabbing some value in this number at 5. If Tech was 100% healthy I think they win this game by 15. With the injuries, I think it’s closer to a 9-10 point win, but I still really like the Red Raiders in this spot. I also think there’s a distinct coaching advantage for Texas Tech which does tend to matter in these type of games early in the tournament. NC State is one of the worst teams in the country defending the three point line (allowing nearly 35% of 3s to be made). Meanwhile that’s all Tech wants to do. So the only way I believe NC State has success defensively is through scheme and gameplanning; however, I don’t believe that this staff is good enough to come up with an effective gameplan. Therefore, give me the Texas Tech Red Raiders here, even though their fans throw bottles at players. And even though they are absolute psychos on Twitter, I’ll be pulling for Tech in round 1. Guns Up 

OFFICIAL PICK: Texas Tech -4.5 (-110) 

Best Bet #3: Keisei Tominaga (Nebraska) OVER 14.5 Points (-115)

1 UNIT

College Basketball Best Bet (3/13/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 13, 2024 | 3:54 P.M. CST

One best bet for tonight’s conference tournaments

Best Bet: Cincinnati -2.5 vs. Kansas

Brief Summary: Cincinnati is not going to knock anyone’s socks off from a talent standpoint. However, they are a gritty team. They trailed yesterday by double digits in the second half to West Virginia and found a way to pull out a win late in the game. They now face Kansas. Kansas comes into this game on probably their worst stretch of basketball in the past decade. Looking at them a month ago this would be shocking, but it really isn’t. Why? Because they have lacked depth all year. So, when injuries occur, it is going to hurt Kansas more than any other team. They will be without two starters going into this matchup. It’s not just two starters though, it’s their two leading scorers in Kevin McCullers and Hunter Dickinson. Without those two guys I really don’t know what this team is. And I think that is why this game is mispriced. Likely Vegas has points associated with these players, so take them away and we arrive at 2.5. But that doesn’t take into account their presence on the court. Not having those two guys makes Kansas incredibly fragile here. They are likely going to be playing some guys who have not played the entire season. Not to mention, the guys off the bench who have played this year are horrible.

It really feels like Bill Self realizes that health is the most important thing right now. If KU isn’t 100% healthy going into the NCAA tournament their odds of getting out of the first weekend is almost 0. Therefore, it feels like the Jayhawks are punting on the conference tournament in an attempt to have one last run in the Big Dance (which is obviously much more important). Beyond that, i question how much Kansas really wants to win this game? Do they really want to risk more injuries the way their season has gone? Playing more games means more wear and tear on Harris (KU’s PG) and he’s battled an ankle injury lately as well. On the other hand Cinci is playing for their lives. They basically have to win the conference tournament to get in the Big Dance. So we are going to get a focused, locked in group in the Bearcats tonight. I’ll happily lay the 2.5 with the healthier, more motivated team. I would play it up to -3

Official Pick: Cincinnati -2.5

College Basketball Conference Tourney Long Shots

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 12, 2024 | 2:45 A.M. CST

Conference Title Longshot Picks:

• Baylor to win the Big 12 @ +800

• Florida to win the SEC @ +2000

I think these two just have value based on their brackets. You actually can parlay the two together for 180 to 1 odds. I put a very small amount on each of these long shots.

College Basketball Conference Tournament Best Bet

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 12, 2024 | 1:55 A.M. CST

This is the lone Conference Championship Bet that I myself will be betting a full unit. Therefore I wanted to give a summary of the pick.

UCONN to win Big East Tournament @ -135

When you look at all of the other major conferences, every single favorite is over priced. Houston is the favorite in the Big 12 at -135. When we really break it down, that number is absurdly high to lay. Houston is definitely the best team in that conference, & I doubt anyone would debate otherwise. However, the conference as a whole is just too deep for ANY team to be laying any juice. Winning three games for any team in this tournament is going to be extremely difficult. Two of the last three years (which is when this conference really emerged as the BEST in the country), the #1 seed did not win the tourney. I also just believe that the way Houston plays is good for a long season, but it’s not been a recipe for success in one-and-done elimination games. Can Houston win the Big 12 Conference Tourney? Yes, absolutely. But laying -135 is absurd. I give Houston a 38% chance to win it, so obviously not laying -135.

The Pac-12 Tourney has Arizona as a -160 favorite, which might be even crazier. Yes, the Pac-12 is by far weaker than any other power conference. However, the Wildcats are probably the most inconsistent top 10 team in the country. They have losses to Utah, Oregon State, and USC (none of which are tourney teams). In fact the only other at-large tournament team in the conference is Washington State, & the Cats got swept by the by the Cougars in the regular season.

We look at Purdue in the Big 10, currently at Even money. Purdue isn’t a horrible pick, largely due to their dominance this season as well as the Big 10 being down. However, their path is pretty tough. Their first game is likely to be Michigan State. Not only will the Spartans be desperate for a signature win to secure their tourney ticket, but they also matchup decently well with the Boilermakers. The second game for Purdue has a good chance of being Northwestern. In the two regular season meetings, Northwestern beat Purdue and took them to overtime in Mackey Arena (Purdue’s home gym). They are probably the team the Boilermakers match up the worst with, not to mention they have the best guard in the conference in Boo Bouie. And then in the final, if they get there, they would have to face Illinois for a third time. Not only is that a HUGE rivalry game, but Purdue beat the Illini in both meetings in the regular season. Illinois will be extremely fired up if they get one last shot at the Boilermakers.

In the ACC we have North Carolina as the favorite in the ACC at +135. Honestly, I just don’t trust the Tar Heels. I also don’t like that there is a good chance North Carolina plays Duke in the ACC Title. Although the Tarheels are a better team, playing their rival for a third team after beating them twice is going to be tough. Lastly, the SEC has Tennessee favored at +130.

In the SEC, Tennessee is a really good team. However, they are too offensively challenged at times to take to win three straight games in a tournament setting. They also play a style in which they foul on every possession, and that leaves them at the mercy of the officials on any given night. If they catch the officials on a night where the game is called tight, they can get into trouble really quick. But past all of that, the SEC is just too deep. I think the SEC borders the Big 12 in how tough it’s going to be to actually win this tournament, so only getting +130 isn’t good enough for me to believe in the Vols.

And, that leaves UCONN. The Big East regular season champs are -135 (Bovada) to win the Big East Tournament at MSG. The Huskies have a lot going for them going into this tournament. First, this team is the best team in the country, and I really do not think it’s close. I’ve been a believer that UCONN is way above everyone else all season, and they seem to be getting better every game they play. Additionally, I do NOT think the Big East is nearly as good as the Net and KenPom seem to think. And, when we look at UCONN’s potential path to the Title here, it’s extremely favorable. Game one is going to be the winner of Xavier and Butler. According to KenPom, the Huskies would be around a 17-18 point favorite against either team in that game. Their second game would be against the winner of St. John’s and Seton Hall. At this moment, UCONN would be roughly a 13 point favorite against St. John’s and a 15 point favorite against Seton Hall. I believe UCONN will win both of those games by 15+ and have a decent chance of covering the spread. So winning those games I doubt will be much of an issue.

That leaves ONE game. It could end up being Marquette, however Marquette is currently without star PG Tyler Kolek, and they’ve been a different team without him. UCONN went into Wisconsin and beat the Eagles by double digits a week ago. The more likely opponent would be Creighton in the finals. Against Creighton, KenPom would currently make UCONN a 7.5 point favorite. Thus, assuming UCONN does not get upset as 15+ point favorites, we would go into the championship game with a -135 ticket in a game that UCONN will likely be somewhere around -270. The value there alone makes this appealing. But then, we add in the spot factor. First, UCONN did not win the Big East Tournament last year. In fact they didn’t win the regular season nor did they win the Big East Tournament. Dan Hurley has openly stated that not winning either was something that really bothered them. They are going to be extremely focused and locked in to get that sweep of the Regular Season Title and Conference Tourney Title in route to trying to win a second straight National Title. Second, if the Huskies do get the BlueJays in the final, it’s going to be a spot where UCONN has revenge. Creighton handed UCONN it’s worst loss of the season (at full strength) a few weeks ago when the Huskies traveled to Omaha. So you can bet Dan Hurley and his squad are going to be motivated to hand Creighton a big time loss and win a Championship in the process.

Overall this is too much value to pass up. I’ve seen some spots dealing -150 and -160. I believe the true odds to be -210. So I will happily lay -135.

OFFICIAL PICK: UCONN To Win Big East Tournament -135

College Basketball 2023-2024 Season Summary

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 10, 2024 | 5:02 A.M. CST

The regular season in college basketball is coming to a close. A number of conferences finished regular season play today, with a few more finishing up over the next few days. A number of conferences have already began their tournaments, and we’ve even had a ticket punched to the big dance with the Morehead Eagles out of the OVC. As the season finishes up, I will still be posting plays, but I wanted to give a quick summary of where I am for the year. All these plays are posted in this blog and time stamped so feel free to go back and look at previous articles and postings. Last year was my best year ever in college basketball as a handicapper, finishing over 70% in conference play. However, I was more selective last season, and as the sample size increases it’s obviously impossible to maintain that percentage over a multiple year sample. The good thing is, we still had a GREAT year this season. Thanks for all those who followed my picks for the season. Hopefully we will have an awesome couple of weeks in conference tourneys and the NCAA Tourney. However, I do want to caution people, that as we get into these tournaments it can be much more difficult to predict. It’s possible that last year was an anomaly, but I did not have a good tournament. After an INCREDIBLE college basketball REGULAR season, I had a really brutal stretch in March. I just wanted to say that because it can be really easy to see all those great games on the board and feel like you have to play every one. AND it’s easy to bet MORE than you normally do on the tournament. Only place a bet on these games if you feel you have an edge. And stick to the same wager amounts that you’ve played all season. I have had runs in March that have been super profitable, and I’ve had runs in March that have resulted in losses (and last year significant losses). They call it March Madness for a reason. You get into these one off games with teams who are not familiar with each other and there can be quite a bit of variance. Don’t let a couple of weeks determine the profit of your season. This should be bonus time, rather than the biggest time of the year to bet. Enough of me ranting about those things though, my record is listed below!!

Overall Season Record: 68-45-1 (60.2%)

• 3 Unit Plays (Highest Rated Plays): 4-0 (+12.0 Units)

• 2 Unit Plays: 42-27 (+24.6 Units)

• 1 Unit Plays: 22-26 (-6.6 Units)

Overall Unit Profit = +30.0 Units

• A $50 bettor would be +$1,500

• A $100 bettor would be +$3,000

• A $500 bettor would be +$15,000

• A $1,000 bettor would be + $30,000

Quick Breakdown: The one thing I’ve struggled with in the past that I’ve worked on quite a bit is understanding how to rate my plays. It is very interesting to see how the percentage of the rated plays worked out. Obviously I would love to have the 1-unit plays be positive as well, but it’s really nice to see that as the strength of the play increases, the percentage significantly increases. Ideally, the stronger the play the more likely it is to win, and that has been the case this season.

Once again, thanks for everyone who followed along and checked the page. As we close the book on another phenomenal college hoops season, we will now move into the MADNESS of March and if nothing else, it should be very entertaining!!

College Basketball Best Bets (3/9/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 9, 2024 | 1:08 P.M. CST

Best Bets:

1) Kansas State +4 vs. Iowa State

2) Marquette -3 @ Xavier

3) Kentucky Team Total OVER 79

4) ML Favorite Parlay: Florida ML + Indiana State ML + Houston ML

College Basketball A-Sun Tourney Pick (3/7/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 7, 2024 | 5:53 P.M. CST

Pick: North Alabama to Win Conference Tourney at +550

Summary: This is a case of mispriced odds in my opinion. We are currently sitting in the semi-finals of the A-Sun tourney (4 teams left), with the semi-finals being played tonight, and yet North Alabama is still at +550 to win the tournament. The A-Sun tourney has been absolutely wacky so far with 2 of the top 3 seeds going down before the semi-finals. #6 Seed North Alabama beat Lipscomb at the buzzer last night, who was the #3 seed in the tournament, although I think Libscomb was the best and most dangerous team in that tournament. Then we had #10 seed Jacksonville pull off the stunning upset of #1 Eastern Kentucky. So in one foul swoop, we have the #1 and #3 seeds gone. This leaves the #2, #4, #6, and #10 seeds battling for a trip to the Big Dance (where they will almost certainly be in a 16-seed First Four Game).

Regardless, when you look at this price, you have to ask yourself, okay what does this team have to do? They have to win two games. In order to cash the ticket, you’d have to have them pull off an upset tonight over #4 Seed Austin Peay tonight as 3.5 point dogs. Then win in the championship game over the winner of Stetson and Jacksonville. Well, first let’s look at tonight’s matchup. Austin Peay barely survived last night, needing overtime to take down #5 seed North Florida. It’s also important to note that Austin Peay is a team that really lacks depth, and they had 3 starters play 43+ minutes last night. Now they have to comeback and play the next night against a team who just upset the hottest team in the conference. So we’ve seen this number come down a touch already.

Now let’s say North Alabama pulls off a win tonight as a short dog. Who would they face in the finals? Well they could face #2 Stetson, in which case they would likely be a short underdog of about 4 points. However, they beat Stetson by 7 in their lone meeting this year, a game that North Alabama actually closed as a 2.5 point favorite. So if you win the game tonight, that’s WORST case. Now you are holding a +550 ticket, in a game where the odds are going to be somewhere close to +140 or +150. On the other hand, if Jacksonville upsets Stetson, now you have that same +550 ticket as a favorite, likely of around 3-4 points. All of the sudden you not only have a +550 ticket, but you also have an opportunity to hedge back for your initial investment (play Jacksonville at +135) and you are basically going to either make .35 units or make 4.5 units. That’s best case scenario. But essentially you either would have a super valuable ticket, or an arbitrage opportunity. It’s also not out of the realm of possibility that Jacksonville wins tonight. Although Stetson should pull it out, Jacksonville just upset the #1 seed Eastern Kentucky. They also are only a 6 point dog tonight in that game, so it isn’t as if the game is expected to be a complete blowout.

So my suggestion here is to play North Alabama +550. Play it for just one unit. There’s just too much value here at +550 in a conference with just 4 teams left to play, all of which are separated by 6 points or less from a point spread perspective.

Take NORTH ALABAMA +550 to win the A-Sun Tournament

College Basketball Best Bet (3/6/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 6, 2024 | 5:03 P.M. CST

Game: Iowa State vs. BYU

Line: Iowa State -7.5 | Iowa State -4 (1H) | Iowa State ML -300 | Iowa State -210

Summary:

I’ll just give my take on this game, because I’m still working through how to play this. I think Iowa State is going to win this game without a doubt. BYU is 3-6 straight up at home in conference play. Two of those road wins in the conference on the road came against two of the worst teams in the Big 12 (5 point win at UCF, 13 point win at WVU). The other win was their most recent outing where they went to Kansas and won the game outright in Alan Fieldhouse. To me that win is a fluke. It was an impressive win, without a doubt. But the truth is, it’s an outlier to how they have performed all season. They lost at Oki State who is the worst team in this conference. The lost by double digits at Kansas State, who’s 10th in the conference. They lost at Baylor, Tech, and OU as well, and none of those games were that close. They also lost their only road non-conference game at Utah earlier this year, who is likely not a tournament team.

Then you look at that Kansas game and it’s really important to point out a few things. Number one, Kansas is one of the least deep teams in the country; in fact, they probably have THE LEAST depth of any team in the power conferences. They have absolutely nobody who can play off the bench. Why is that important? Well Kevin McCullers Jr, their leading scorer did not play in that game against BYU. That forced grad senior Nicolas Timberlake into the starting lineup, who has been horrible this season. You also had Dejuan Harris playing on a less than 100% ankle as well, after he injured it a few games prior against Baylor. He’s not been the same since that injury, but he’s been forced to play through it because of their lack of depth. When you take those things into account, it really makes that road win a lot less impressive. It’s still a good win, don’t get me wrong. Going to Alan Fieldhouse regardless of who trots out there for KU is tough on any night. But I think BYU is getting a ton of credit for winning that game and in reality it was a solid win, but not some incredible performance. You also look at the box score of that game. Hunter Dickinson went 6/15 from the FT line in that game, including a few BIG misses late, where he missed both in key moments in the final 5 minutes. He’s a 74% free throw shooter on the year when you remove that game. So that is worth noting as well, that a good free throw shooter, at home, really struggled. If he goes 12/15, it’s a different game. Even 10/15 it might’ve swung KU’s way. As a team Kansas missed 12 free throws in that game, and shot 61% from the charity stripe. Kansas isn’t elite at the line on the season, but they do shoot north of 73% overall. So again, the ball bounced BYU’s way pretty significantly in that game.

Then you look at Iowa State at home. They are 17-0 straight up. In conference play, they’ve beaten each of the other top 5 teams in the conference: Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, and Baylor. The Houston and Kansas games are really their only close home games they’ve played all season, and we know how good Houston is. Kansas faced ISU when the Jayhawks were playing much better and when they were 100% healthy. It doesn’t really require much more of a breakdown - Iowa State has one of the best home court advantages in all of college basketball.

Then you factor in the travel. BYU being in Utah, having to travel to Iowa is a long way from home. It’s farther than the majority of their conference games (Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas make up half the conference).

You then factor in the revenge aspect. This is the worst loss Iowa State suffered all year - BYU destroyed them in their earlier matchup this season. You have to believe the revenge aspect is on the side of the Cyclones here. I don’t think revenge is always the right way to look at a game. Sometimes a team just matches up well with you. I don’t see that as the case here.

One issue that I will bring up is that Iowa State defends the three-ball well in terms of percentages, but in terms of quantity & quality of shots they can give up 3s at times. BYU is a high volume, three-point shooting team. That might bother me here, but I think the issue is that the first time these teams played BYU made 13 threes and won by 17. So I just have to imagine there’s going to be a shift in the gameplan for this specific game from the Iowa State side of things. It would just absolutely shock me if BYU came out and made a ton of threes in this one. I am fairly certain Iowa State is going to make BYU beat them driving to the basket.

How to Play This:

I’m struggling with deciding how to play this game. I think Iowa State is going to win relatively easily. The issue is that the number has gotten away from us here at 7.5. It opened at an incorrect 5, before quickly correcting to 6.5. Since then, it’s been bet up a full point. There’s been significant professional support for the Cyclones. But I don’t quite know that I want to lay 7.5 points vs a team that is prolific scoring the ball. Even though ISU has tended to cover this number at home this season, with a few exceptions, and BYU has tended to lose by more than this number when they do lose. I just can’t bring myself to lay 7.5

So I’m deciding between a few things. The ML price is high to lay for sure, and I’m hesitant to lay -325. That said, in order to lay -325 you need to have a win percentage of over 75.6% to be able to be profitable. I make this an 82.8% chance that Iowa State wins this game at home. So mathematically it actually does make sense to lay this price. I’m just not inclined to lay that normally. Long story long I just don’t know how I want to play Iowa State but I like them a lot here. If there’s another favorite you like to win tonight you could parlay them ML and get it to under -200. If you think ISU will come out well, you could lay -4 in the first half or even lay -200 moneyline. Iowa State has led at halftime of every home game in conference play, and the least they’ve led by at halftime is 4. BYU has also started slow lately. They were really good in the first half early in the season. But they’ve trailed in 4 of their last 5 games at halftime, and all 4 of those games were by 4 or more. So that feels like the best value probably. I may lay -4 in the first half or ML in the first half, and if it wins great. If it loses I can come back live and take ISU at a good price in the second.

Play ISU somehow.

College Basketball Best Bets (3/6/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 6, 2024 | 12:47 A.M. CST

Best Bets are listed below - we’re going to post them now to get ahead of line moves.

1) Seton Hall -1 vs. Villanova (2U)

2) Texas A&M -1 vs. Mississippi State (2U)

3) Minnesota -5 vs. Indiana (2U)

4) South Carolina +5.5 vs. Tennessee (2U)

College Basketball Best Bets (3/5/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 5, 2024 | 5:21 P.M. CST

Best Bets for Tonight (1U each)

Best Bet #1: VCU Rams -5.5 vs. Duquesne Dukes

VCU has won 6 straight at home since dropping back-to-back home games back in early January. In fact, VCU as whole since that 0-2 start to conference play is 11-3 straight up, with those 3 losses coming on the road, and all against teams in the top 6 in the conference (Richmond - 1st, UMASS - 5th, St. Bony’s - 6th). Of those 6 home wins by the Rams, 4 have come by over 5.5 points (the margin tonight). They’re also 3-0 SU in their last 3 games following a loss. That is actually one of the main reasons I like them in this spot. The Rams have been good at home all season, and they’ve been really solid off a loss. They are not only playing this one at home, but this is also their final home game. Some teams that may not matter all that much, but I think for VCU it does. Two of VCU’s top players left Utah State with Barry Odom last season and came to VCU, so those are two guys who have been with their coach for the entirety of their career. VCU is also very senior heavy - 6 of their top 7 scorers are seniors, likely playing in their last home game. So I think we’re going to get a very focused, very motivated Rams team tonight. VCU also has some motivation for winning this game in terms of the A10 tournament. They are currently 11-5, sitting in 4th place in the A10. A win tonight would clinch them a top 4 seed in the A10 Tourney, which is very meaningful because it means you will have a double bye to start the tournament. They will still have a chance to clinch that 4th spot with a loss, but I’m certain clinching that top 4 seed is a priority tonight, to avoid needing a road win in their final game (even if it is vs. GW).

Looking at Duquesne, they’ve definitely had a good season for their standards. They are right in the middle of the pack in the A-10, sitting at 8-8 in conference play. They started off A-10 play miserably, but to their credit they went on a very nice winning streak right in the heart of conference play. They’ve been a little bit up and down lately, going 5-3 in their last 8 games. They key though, is that those last 3 losses have all come by double digits. Why that tends to happen is because Duquesne struggles to score the ball at times. They are just 174th in Offensive Efficiency on the season, and they can really go through spurts where they struggle to score. Even in their upset win against George Mason on the road last time out, they started off the game down 14-2. To their credit they found a way to bounce back and cut the lead to just 2 at halftime, before going on to win it outright by 8. However, that win is partially why I like VCU as well. The Dukes are on currently on a 2-game winning streak. Throughout conference play they’ve only had one instance where they won more than 2 games in a row; that spurt came nearly 2 months ago, when they won 3 straight conference games. However, two of those games came at home, and the lone road win in that span came against Rhode Island (12th out of 14 in the A10).

The last reason I like this game is probably the main reason I’m going with VCU. I already like the spot, but I don’t think the number has massive value. I made this 6.2, so we’re getting less than a point of value in this game. KenPom has a very similar number to mine as well. But, factoring in the spot gets me closer to 7. And then, you look at the matchup. As I mentioned above, Duquesne is one of the worst offensive teams in the conference, and they hang their hat on their defense. Unfortunately for the Dukes, that’s exactly what VCU does as well. The Rams are 119th in offensive efficiency while the Dukes are 174th. The Rams are 48th in defensive while the Dukes are 54th. So you have very similar style teams here, but the Dukes do the same things that the Rams do worse. Stylistically, when you get teams that are very similar, it can be very difficult for the inferior team to have success because they aren’t giving the better team anything different. VCU is also the far superior shooting team, knocking down over 36 of their threes (good for 61st in the country) compared to Duquesne’s very poor 33% (outside the top 250 in that category). Lastly, and probably importantly here, if VCU doesn’t blow out the Dukes, and this game comes down to FT shooting late, that is a HUGE edge to VCU. VCU is the 7th best Free Throw shooting team in the country at 79.3%. The Dukes? Just 70.3% (234th in the country). Expect the Dukes to leave a lot of points at the line, and if it’s a close game late, expect VCU to close out the Dukes and get the cover by knocking down some key Free Throws Late. Back the Rams in this spot, at home on Senior night.

OFFICIAL PICK: VCU -5.5

Best Bet #2: Florida Gators -1 vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

This pick is based mostly on the spot, and the teams current forms. Alabama is coming off a brutal loss at home to Tennessee. A few games ago the Crimson Tide looked like they were in full control of the SEC race, but they’ve now lost 2 of their last 3, and no longer control their own destiny in the SEC. Florida on the other hand is playing really good basketball as of late. There are a lot of people around the country who think this team is a sleeper to make a deep March Madness Run.

The first matchup between these two teams really should’ve gone Floridas way. They led late in that game and really outplayed Alabama for much of it as well. Now they’re getting Bama back at home off a loss. Florida has also not lost in SEC play at home all season. All 5 of their conference losses came on the road. I also hated what I saw from Alabama against Tennessee on Saturday. They took some really bad shots all night long. Sears pretty much dissapeared down the stretch for the Crimson Tide. But worst of all, they just got beat by a team who played harder. They didn’t rebound well at all. They didn’t defend late in that game. Tennessee didn’t shoot a great percentage, but they hit 12 threes against Bama. And absolutely mauled them on the offensive glass and on hustle plays late in that game to run away with it. Unless Alabama has a monster shooting night I think the Gators take care of business and knock off Alabama tonight.

Official Pick: Florida -2

Best Bet #3: Illinois -2 vs. Purdue

I went back and forth on making this an official play. I figured in the long run you have to take Illinois in this spot. It’s a monster game at home for them. Purdue has not played great as of late, despite the public perception of them being the best team in the country. They are just 1-5 against the spread against the top 5 teams in the Big 10 this season. They failed to cover at home in their last outing against a Michigan State team who struggles to score. Now they go on the road to Illinois, one of the toughest places in the country to play.

Illinois one home loss in the Big 10 came against Maryland (who sucks) but it came without Terrance Shannon Jr, who is a huge part of their team. With Shannon back, Illinois has been the second best offensive team in the country in that time. The problem has been their defense. And that’s the only thing keeping me off a BIG play tonight. They are outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. The reason I still like Illinois, is that it’s somewhat by design. They want to play fast and they want to make it a high scoring affair, which tends to dip their defensive numbers. At times, they can dig in and get defensive stops.

I just think spot wise, you have to take the Illini in this spot. This is their Super Bowl tonight, and Purdue has much less to play for from a motivation standpoint. I think it’s going to be a great game, but I’ll take the Illini SMALL in this one.

Official Pick: Illinois -2

College Basketball Best Bet (3/4/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 4, 2024 | 5:25 P.M. CST

NOTE: No doubt we’ve had a rough couple of days, but as I said in my weekly brief in the midst of the 10-1 streak, it’s impossible to keep that up. I was due for a little bit of negative regression this weekend. Unfortunately it came all in one day. I will say, the bets we made if you look at the numbers we got when I gave out those plays, and where those numbers closed, the line moved favorably for us in 4 of the 5. And we gained a total of 8 points of CLV (Closing Line Value). So looking back at those picks, we got the best of the number there on 4 games. Creighton opened -4, closed -8.5 (-9 in some spots). We got Charlotte at 2.5/3, and it closed at -4.5. We got Wisconsin at -2.5 and it closed at -4. And we got Alabama -2.5 and it closed 4 (-120) in most spots. The only line that didn’t move in our favor was Northwestern, and that was a case of unfortunate luck as Ty Berry was supposed to go for the Wildcats and got ruled out last minute. But, we push forward and try to find some value this week as we head into conference tournaments and the last week of the regular season for most of the bigger conferences.

Pick for Tonight: I think the card is a little bit difficult to navigate tonight. I do have a few opinions on the smaller league games tonight, and one opinion on the big game of the night in the Big 12. But, I am actually going to go to a player prop here for my best bet and we’re going to look at that Big 12 game I mentioned.

So we’re going to look to Baylor/Texas, but we’re going to look at a less efficient market in the player props market. The thing about this time of year, is we’re going to get lines based on lots of data, and that can make it a little more difficult to find consistent good spots (because the lines are very accurate). But the college props market is one that is just not widely used by most bettors, and thus the market is not all that sharp.

So let’s look to Baylor Point Guard, Ray J Dennis OVER 6.5 assists (+106), and here’s why I like it. On the season, Dennis is averaging 6.7 Assists per game, which is why we see the number sit at 6.5. In conference play, that number is a bit higher at 6.93 Assists/Game. When we looking at his numbers, though, it seems to be going up in terms of his average as we get more recent. In the past 10 games Ray J is averaging 6.9 (right at his conference average). However we had one outlier in that stretch where he had just ONE assist at home against Iowa State. If you remove that contest, his average in the other 9 games goes up to 7.6 Assists per game. If you look at just his last 5 outings, he’s had 40 assists in the past 5 games, good for 8 Assists per game. And 9 per game in his last two outings. He also went over 6.5 assists in 4 of the last 5 games, 7 of his last 10, and 11 of his last 14.

Then we look at the games he did NOT go over that total in the past 14 games. One came against a Texas Tech team that isn’t very good defensively. However, the other two came against Houston and Iowa State, the two most aggressive, physical teams in the country. Also the two teams who play at the slowest pace, and limit possessions. Texas does neither of those things. In the first matchup with the Longhorns, Dennis had 8 assists in the contest. When we look at the matchup, we can see why. First off, one thing Dennis likes to do is post up against smaller guards. Well, Texas has one of the smallest guards in the country in Max Abmas. This is going to require Texas to provide some help for Abmas in these situations which frees up open cutters and shooters all around the court for Dennis to find. Secondly, we look at how Baylor likes to play. They are one of the more prolific 3-point shooting teams in the country, coming it 3rd nationally in 3 point percentage. They also rely on the 3-pointer for a large percentage of their points (33% of total points come from 3, which is good for top 100 in the country). Texas on the other hand, does a terrible job of defending the three point line (181st nationally defending 3s). So Baylor and RayJ should have plenty of opportunities to find shooters tonight to boost his assist total.

Overall, I think this is just a good matchup for Dennis. He plays close to 35 minutes per game. I thought possibly this number was short because of the possibility of Baylor running away with this one. But, if you look in conference play, all but ONE game out of 16, Dennis has played at least 34 minutes. And the one game he did not play at least 34, he still played 30. So, he’s going to be out there for the majority of the game, regardless of the score. This is a HUGE game for Baylor in terms of holding onto a top 4 seed in the conference tournament (Double Bye). So he’s going to play a ton of minutes. His usage rate for Baylor is absurd. He has the ball in his hands more than almost any point guard in the country. I think we’re going to have plenty of opportunities for assists tonight, and I think he is going to get close to double digits. And it’s just icing on the cake that we’re getting PLUS MONEY.

Official Pick: RAY J DENNIS OVER 6.5 ASSISTS (+106)

Units: 2

Extra Notes:

Like I said I have been on a cold streak so far the past couple of days for my official picks. However, I do play a ton of small things on the side throughout the day, as I sit there and look for value. It is really difficult to post things when you are live betting or betting at halftime. But that’s essentially what I do on a daily basis. For example, Saturday I saw UNC at -1.5 at halftime, down 8 to NC State, and I jumped on that. I saw Minnesota at +125 in the final 5 minutes of the game down 3, but they were on a huge run and had all the momentum. I cashed both of those. I liked Gonzaga in the late game, but wanted a better value. When they got down 3 early on, I was able to see a +155 live, and at that price, it was too much to pass up. So I got in live on the Zags. I cashed all three of those, but again it’s really hard to give those out when you’re talking about getting numbers that are only available for 30 seconds to a few minutes (even halftime live betting you may have 10-15 minutes total to make an educated decision and place your wager). I did also take a very small (.25 unit play) on Nebraska -4 in the first half yesterday, which cashed easily. My point in saying this, is just to say I am usually pretty consistent in the long run, and I do this for a living so I am going to be doing this stuff all day (like day trading). I’m hesitant to give out EVERY SINGLE thing I like on here, because I don’t want people to take it and bet them for the same amount as my top plays. But since I have had a couple rough days in a row I’ll give out just OPINIONS here below. This is just a few things I may bet tonight.

Angles: NOT OFFICIAL PLAYS - just ideas if you happen to like one of these sides.

Angle 1: Baylor Bears LIVE: This will be an angle I’m looking to play. If the Longhorns come out hot and are able to snag a lead of 4-6 points at some point early in the game. If I can get Baylor at -3 or better at any point in the game I probably will.

Angle 2: Take the Baylor Bears -4 in the first half, and if it wins great, you’ve got some profit. If not, look to take the Bears live at halftime. You’ll be getting good value if they are losing. I think that’s a decent angle as well.

Angle 3: Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville: We’ve seen sharp money on Kennesaw -2 and the over 146, 146.5, and 147. There’s probably some small value there in the side. Maybe the total live, because I see it all the way to 148 on Bovada. We also saw some sharp money on Nichols State pushing it from -1 to -2. So just a few little sharp sides for you there as well. Those are all things I may play for a few bucks. Good luck tonight!!

College Basketball Best Bets (Saturday, 3/2/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 2, 2024 | 2:51 A.M. CST

Here are my best bets that are on my personal card for this Saturday in college hoops.

Best Bets (2 Units Each):
1) Wisconsin -2.5 vs. Illinois: Fantastic spot for Wisconsin. I’m lower on the Badgers than anyone else in the country, but Illinois has not only struggled on the road, they’ve struggled to closeout games as well. They haven’t been playing their best ball of late. Granted, Wisconsin hasn’t played well as of late either, but they have still held serve at home ever game with the exception of the loss to Purdue a few weeks ago, which came by just 6 points. I’ll take the Badgers here.

2) Charlotte -2.5 or -3 vs. South Florida: Sell high spot on South Florida. The Bulls have been an amazing surprise this season, and it’s been fun to watch. But at some point there has to be a let down. They almost lost on the road at UTSA a few weeks back. They’re due for a loss and Charlotte is much better than people realize.

3) Creighton -4 vs. Marquette: Great spot for the Bluejays at home. They have been great at home all season. Marquette is 0-3 on the road against the top 5 teams in the Big East. They also have UCONN on deck on Wednesday. I’ll take Creighton laying the small number here in front of a ruckus crowd.

4) Northwestern -3 or -3.5 vs. Iowa: Call me a sucker on this one. The line opened 3.5 which is where I got it, and it’s down to 3 shockingly (only line move I got in front of opposite of the move). I do not understand how Iowa is taking money here. Northwestern is undefeated at home this season. I understand the Hawkeyes are playing much better basketball as of late; they beat Michigan State on the road a few games ago. But Ohio State also went into Sparty’s house and beat them on Sunday. I understand the matchup isn’t all that great for NW with Iowa being able to shoot it at a high clip, but there’s just too much value here to pass up. I make this game 5.5 and we’re only laying 3 in most spots at this point. KenPom makes this 4 and that’s with them significantly underrating NW’s HC advantage. Give me the Wildcats to win this one by double digits.

5) Alabama -2.5 vs. Tennessee: Tough spot for Tennessee off that massive win against a ranked Auburn team at home. The environment was the best I’ve seen in CBB this season. Now they have to go on the road to an Alabama team that has been great in Tuscaloosa all year. Bama’s defense has not been good, but the one thing they have done well is defend the three (Top 70 in country). Tennessee’s lone quality road win this season was at Kentucky, in a game where they made 12 threes, shot 60% from beyond the arc in the 1st half, and 40% from deep in the entire game. 5 players for UT have a 3-point percentage drop off of 5% or more from beyond the arc when playing on the road. As a team they shoot it at a bottom 200 clip from deep in true road environments. Unless the Vols significantly exceed expectations from beyond the arc in this one, or the officials decide to let the teams play extremely physical, I don’t see how Tennessee hangs with them. Too much to get up for another game of this magnitude, and they won’t have the home fans behind them to help will them to a victory.

Interesting Angles: (BET THESE AT YOUR OWN RISK: NOT official plays, and might be a few bucks in my small account on them, but will not be counted towards my record, win or lose)

Angle 1: South Carolina has led at halftime in 11 of their 15 conference games. They have led at halftime in 6 of their 7 home games in the SEC. They only game they trailed at halftime when playing at home in conference play was against Vandy (trailed by 4). That was likely a case of the Gamecocks overlooking the Commodores. In every other game they led at halftime. They are only laying 1.5 or 2 points (depending on the shop), so you can get them ML in the first half at -125 in a lot of spots. I think they will dictate the pace and get out to a lead early. This is just an angle I looked at that the numbers back up. Hard to make this officially a play, but it’s probably got a little bit of value just based on the short breakdown. I haven’t bet it myself, and it is NOT an official play.

Angle 2: Missouri is 0-14 in conference and they are laying 1 point against Ole Miss. Look I’m the king of betting ugly teams and this game has my name written all over it. But I don’t know if even I can get to the window on Mizzou. They’re last win came December 3rd, and they have not won a game in the year of 2024. That said, this seems like a classic Las Vegas “Wise Guys” line. The public is going to look at this and take Ole Miss without a doubt. And Ole Miss is definitely the more talented team. But Missouri has played quite a few close games this season, and they’ve come up on the losing end every time. This is probably their last legitimate shot to get a win in SEC play. Ole Miss is coming off another devastating loss that probably bounces them out of the NCAA Tourney. That seems to be built in the number here, because Missouri really has zero home court advantage other than the fact that Ole Miss is traveling. I don’t know. This feels a lot like the line last Saturday where UCLA was favored by 4 and it was coming down against a horrific USC team and USC won outright. I would not be shocked if Missouri got a win here. Just not sure I can bring myself to bet them.

College Basketball Best Bet (2/29/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 29, 2024 | 8:55 P.M. CST

Note: Lost our play last night on Oki State -2.5. That was my first negative night in a long time, but we were absolutely due. It didn’t help that when we had a 12 point lead in the first half Oki State’s best player picked up a technical foul, which accounted for his 3rd personal foul. It also forced him out of the game for the next 9 minutes, and by the time Coach Boynton put him back in, the Cowboys were down 5. They went from up 12 to down 5 in that stretch (-17). That was really the difference in the game. The Knights also had a kid who had hit 4 threes all season knock down two big triples in the first half to keep them in the game when it looked like the Cowboys might run away. Overall, tough loss, but can’t win them all!! Let’s see if we can bounce back tonight.

Official Pick: Washington State -6.5 vs. USC

Quick Summary Below

• I got this play at 6.5. It has moved to at least 7 at every spot, most spots are dealing 7.5, and I’ve even seen some 8’s out there. So we’ve seen consistent professional money on the Cougars from the time this line got released. My power rankings make this game 10.9. So when I saw 6.5, I had to do a double take. I really tried to play spoiler to myself, because when a game shows this big of a difference, there’s usually something up. I checked for major injuries, of which there were none. I checked the news reports and social media for both teams, and nothing was alarming there either. So I checked KenPom to see if it was just my numbers being off (I have Wazzu rated higher than most). But even KenPom made this game 10. I think Vegas must just rate this USC team higher than everyone else, purely based on the talent they have. But, at some point you just have to take into account the datapoints we have. And those datapoints clearly show that Washington State is the only option here.

• Washington State has probably the second best home court advantage in the Pac 12. When that place is packed and rocking, they really have a great venue, and it’s not easy to go in there and win. I have to believe that with USC coming to town, which obviously includes Bronny James, and future NBA player Isaiah Collier, that gym will be packed, even though USC is not a top 25 team by any means. Usually a team with a losing record coming into this venue might indicate that we would not get a huge crowd. I think we’re going to though, with the Trojans coming to town. This is also the first home game for the Cougars in over 12 days. In that 12 day span they went on the road and upset #4 Arizona. I believe that win really spared this fan base, and I think they’re going to show out tonight.

• Then you look at USC on the road. They’ve just been horrific. Yes they got the win over UCLA in their last outing, and yes they went into that game as a 4 point dog. UCLA is just so bad offensively, that USC was able to get out to a big enough lead to make it tough for the Bruins to comeback. But USC has been one of the worst road teams in the country overall. In fact going into that UCLA game the Trojans were as bad as you can get away from home, losing all 7 conference road games. Those 7 losses came by 31, 6, 15, 15, 10, 16, and 8. That’s an average margin of loss of 14.4 ppg, and 5 of the 7 losses coming by 10+. Even if you include the road win in their last outing at UCLA, the Trojans are a -95 on the road in Pac 12 play. They played only 2 non-conference road games, but it’s worth noting that their lone road win outside of PAC-12 play came against Alabama A&M. So, yes one could argue that USC is playing a little better as of late. But I’m more inclined to believe that they just got up to play their rival in UCLA last weekend, and had a good matchup with an offensively challenged team that could not exploit their porous defense.

• Motivation: Last thing I want to mention is motivation. USC isn’t going to be playing in the post season, more than likely. None of these guys on USC really care though because the better ones are going to the NBA, and likely the ones who aren’t will be looking to transfer after Andy Einfield gets fired this off-season (assuming that will happen given his recent track record). This just doesn’t seem like a game that is all that meaningful to the Trojans. They just beat their rival, and they now go on the road to a team that is very businesslike. It isn’t like anyone is going to be watching this game late on a Thursday night. So I just don’t think these guys are going to be out there sacrificing for their teammates trying to beat Washington State. Meanwhile this game is extremely meaningful to the Cougars. If they are able to win out they will be the #1 seed in the PAC 12 tourney and will claim the final PAC-12 Regular season title ever. This would be a HUGE accomplishment for this team who was picked to finish in the bottom half of the conference. I also see a huge coaching mismatch here and I think Kyle Smith will have his guys focused and ready to go, following that poor performance at ASU last time out where they were upset on the road against a team with a losing record.

Official Pick: Washington State -6.5 (Play to -7)

College Basketball Best Bet (2/28/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 28, 2024 | 5:44 P.M. CST

Note: Went 1-1 on our Best Bets last night, and won our opinion easily, for a nice little profitable night. We keep grinding away and making profit on nights where the cards aren’t great. We’re going to try to do the same tonight. Our Under on Mississippi State/UK ended up going way over, but we actually were under until 58 seconds to go in the game. There were 27 points scored in the final minute of the game. The side was incorrect though, mostly because Chris Jans allowed his guys to run. Mississippi State’s only shot to win that game was if they slowed the game down, which they did in stretches, but they didn’t do it enough, and that allowed the game to get to way too fast of a pace. Our other best bet Notre Dame +6.5 we got the outright win, with the Fighting Irish upsetting the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Our opinion for just .5 units won easily, as we took Syracuse TT Over 77.5 and we were at 45 points in the first half alone. We went over with relative ease. Let’s take a look at the best bet for tonight.

Game: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Central Florida Knights

• Line: OSU -2.5 (-110) | UCF +2.5 (-110)

• Time: 7:00 P.M. CST

• Location: Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, OK (OKST Home Arena)

Summary:

We’re going to look to the home team in this one as the Cowboys have been playing much better basketball as of late. Oki State started off the season about as bad as possible, and conference play wasn’t much better. They lost six consecutive games to start Big 12 play, before finally getting a win over West Virginia. But the Cowboys are very similar to the team we looked at last night in Notre Dame. Their record isn’t great, and when you look at their metrics they aren’t good, however they are playing much better basketball as of late. They had won two straight games, including a home win over #19 (at the time) BYU. Saturday they faced off against their rival in Oklahoma, who is an NCAA Tourney team, and the Cowboys had them on the ropes late. They really should have won that game. OKST had the ball in a tie game with a chance to win it on the final possession. Javon Small, the leading scorer for the Cowboys, got fouled with just 4 seconds on the clock and went to the line for a 1 and 1. Small, who finished the game with 21 points and was outstanding most of the game (10/16 shooting), is an 85% free throw shooter on the season, but missed the front end of the 1 and 1. Thus we headed for overtime. Then in overtime, the Cowboys had a 1 point lead with less than 10 seconds remaining. OU held for the final shot, and Javian McCollum, who was 4/13 in the game and 1/9 from three at the time, settled for a terrible step back three at the buzzer, and BURIED it for the win. A heartbreaker for the Cowboys.

But the loss does not take away from the improvement the Cowboys have shown down the stretch in the toughest conference in the country. They really have been competitive lately, even in the games they’ve lost. The two losses by more than 5 in the past 9 games were at Houston and at Kansas, two of the toughest places to play in the country. The other four losses in that stretch were by 5, 4, 4, and 2. So they’ve been right in most games they’ve played. They’ve also won 3 games in that stretch. But more importantly, they’ve been significantly better at home. Both of those double digit losses I mentioned happened on the road. At home they’ve won 3 of their last 4, with the lone loss coming to OU at the buzzer (as detailed above).

Central Florida on the other hand, has been abysmal on the road in conference play. They are a horrific 1-6 on the road in Big 12 play, with their lone win coming at the Texas Longhorns, back almost a month and a half ago. In that win against the Longhorns, the Knights trailed by 15 points in the second half. In fact, at that point (trailing by 15), ESPN analytics gave them a less than 3% chance of coming back to win the game. But they went on a crazy run, while Texas’ offense went absolutely dry, and the Knights stormed back to win by 6. The Knights are actually 1-7 on the road overall on the seasons, as their lone non-conference road game came at the Miami Hurricanes, who have a very minor home court advantage by the way, and they lost that game by 15. So we have a team who who is 1-7 on the road on the season. They have lost on the road 6/7 times in conference play. And, their lone win came in a game where they had just a 2.7% chance to win in the second half. Those numbers all favor us fading the Cowboys tonight.

Lastly, let’s just look at the form as of late. Not only is Oki State playing better, but UCF is playing very poorly as of late. They did pick up a home win against Texas Tech on Saturday, but before that they had lost 4 straight games. That game against Texas Tech looks even less impressive after watching the Red Raiders get routed by the Texas Longhorns at home last night. Not only that, but the Knights have trended the opposite way of the Cowboys. They’ve actually played worse as the season has gone on. So we’ve got one team trending the right direction, playing at home where they play much better. And we’ve got another team trending the wrong direction, playing on the road where they’ve struggled all season. AND, we have the Cowboys off a loss here, and the Knights off a win. Oddly enough I like that better. Had the Cowboys won the game against OU on Saturday, and UCF lost to Tech, I would not have looked to this game. I’m less concerned with the UCF outcome, but I like that Oki State is coming off a loss. They will be very focused coming in tonight. They aren’t going to the NCAA tournament so this game is important to them, without having the pressure that comes with NEEDING this game. I think they play loose and have a good offensive night, despite the fact that UCF’s defense is pretty good.

Lastly, I want to mention the number. I like the Cowboys in this spot a lot. We’ve also seen professional money on the Cowboys as we saw this open 1.5 and get bet up to 2.5. The only thing that I don’t love about this number is the hook. I would really love it at 2. I make this number 3 according to my power rankings, if you remove the spot completely. So with the spot, with the trends as of late, it’s a touch higher. All that said, of UCF’s road losses, only one has come by 2 or less. So it likely shouldn’t matter. But with a total in the 139 area, that hook is somewhat important. Because of that we’re only laying one unit. But I do like this play.

I have two other plays I was strongly considering. I just don’t want to give them out, because I don’t love them, and I think this Oki State ticket is the best option on the board tonight. So let’s just roll with the one play. If anyone who follows my plays is dying for two extra SMALL plays, hit me up and I can give them to you. But I would just play this one. Thanks and good luck tonight!!

OFFICIAL PICK: OKI STATE -2.5

College Basketball Best Bets + Opinions (2/27/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 27, 2024 | 4:15 P.M. CST

Summary: 2-2 Best Bets on the weekend & we passed last night on the games in a limited card. Not the best weekend, but hey when your bad weekends are .500 and your good week was 10-1, you’ll take that every day of the week. We will try to get back on track tonight. I’ve got two Best Bets for you guys and one small opinion play. Best of luck!!

Best Bets (1U Each)

1) Kentucky @ Mississippi State UNDER 156

Look I hate taking unders here but this is a really tough spot for Kentucky. Mississippi State has been tremendous defensively on the season (9th in the country in Defensive Efficiency). They also play at one of the slower paces in the country. When these two teams met the first time we went over this total by 11 points, but that game was at Rupp Arena. This game is down in Starkville. Usually the home team has a better chance of controlling pace here. I think back to a game a week ago where I saw Wake Forest put up 91 at home against Pittsburgh. The game prior to that was at a slow paced Virginia team and they scored 47. So it definitely can be tough to get an up and down game going on the road vs a very controlled team.

Secondly, I’m just going to fade Kentucky’s previous outing. They were phenomenal against Alabama and they could not have shot the ball better (13/24 from beyond the arc). Now you go from playing at home, against a very below average defense, to playing probably the best defense in the SEC, on the road. It’s just a completely different spot. Now if UK comes out and just lights it up early and forces Mississippi State to play faster than they want to, we could get in trouble here. But I think this is going to be a much slower paced game. We’ve also seen UK have some pretty big let downs against some much worse teams following big wins this season.

2) Notre Dame +6.5 vs. Wake Forest

Look Wake Forest is a team that has been incredible at home, but it’s been a completely different story on the road. They struggle massively away from Winston Salem. In fact they’ve lost 6 of their last 7 road games in conference play on the road outright. Their only road win in that span came at Georgia Tech, who has very little home court advantage. Wake also lost at Pittsburgh and at Virginia who has been an absolute mess the last few weeks.

Notre Dame on the other hand has really improved from the start of the season. I like how they are playing as of late. In fact they had won three straight before dropping one to Syracuse on Saturday on the road. However, in that game the Irish were down 25 points and very easily could have laid down in that game. They aren’t really playing for anything at this point, as they aren’t an NCAA Tournament team. They were down big on the road, in a meaningless game and they fought all the way back to darn near win the game outright. They covered that number +5.5 as an underdog. Now they’re catching 6.5 at home, where they’ve played much better. They’ve played a number of really good teams close at home.

The most important thing about this game though in why I’m playing it is the spot. Look you can look through all the numbers and statistics you want, but if you have played AGAINST teams off massive emotional wins this season, you’ve made a TON of money. Just this weekend we saw Washington State go to Arizona State (who has a losing record). Wazzu was coming off a HUGE program defining win over Arizona on the road. They turn around two days later and lose outright to a bad ASU team as 5.5 point favorites (and we’ve seen this happen over and over this year to teams in those spots). This feels like a very similar spot with the Deacs upsetting Duke in that incredibly emotional game on Saturday. Now they travel to a tough ND team, who’s playing better, who plays super hard, and you’ve got to do something you haven’t done all year consistently: Win on the road. I think this is a TERRIBLE spot for the Deacs so we’re going to take the Irish here.

3) Syracuse Team Total Over 77.5 vs. VT

The Syracuse offense at home this season in ACC play has averaged right around what this number is (78.3 PPG). But if you look at how their season has gone → They struggled early in conference play offensively, and they’ve trended better as the season has gone on. In their last 5 games, 4 of them have gone over this team total, and they’re averaging 82.6 PPG (5 more than we need in tonights game).

Then we look at VT’s Defense on the Road: 

• Overall in conference play on the road, VT has allowed above this number in 6 of their 8 outings → They’re giving up an average of 79.6 PPG on the road 

• However, look how their defense is trending lately → they’ve given up 78+ in 4 of their last 5 road ACC games

• The only game they did NOT allow 78 or more, they gave up 74 (not far off from 78) 

• AVG PPG Allowed last 5 = 81.8 PPG 

So again, if you look at the season numbers here for these two teams → How Syracuse has been at home vs. how VT has played on the road, their probably isn’t a HUGE edge here. However, when you look at the way these teams have been trending in these spots, we get a number here that probably should be closer to 80 or 81.  

Pro Money: We’ve also seen a little bit of professional money come in on the Game Total OVER here as a whole → I think that’s a good thing for us. I thought about looking to that game total, but my feeling is if this game goes over, Syracuse is going to need to go over their team total anyways. So rather than need VT to get there too, let’s just ride with Syracuse if the numbers make sense, which they indeed do.

Look at Syracuse Offensive Ratings Overall on Season:

• eFG% = 50.5% (184th) → Not great

• 33.1% 3FGs (214th) → Not great 

• BUT what about in home conference games?

• Syracuse’s L5 Home Games: Shooting 40.6% from beyond the arc (that would be good for 2nd in the country) → Yes that’s a small sample size, but you could also argue it’s the direction they’ve trended as of late (they’ve shot the ball better as the season has progressed)

• Even if you take it back to the entirety though of the conference season at home they are 35.6% (80th in the country), which is still significantly better than their season long metrics of 33.1%  

• We see the same thing for Cuse’s eFG% → Overall on season 214th → Last 5 home games → 58.1% (that would be good for 3rd country)

Then You look at VT: On the season not been good defending the three → 33.8% allowed (184th in country). They are just as bad allowing shots to fall as a whole. Their eFG% Defense is 175th in the country. All those numbers get worse on the road as well.

But most importantly they really struggle to contain good athletic guards → They really do a horrible job protecting the rim 

• Syracuse has some really athletic guards 

• They are going to struggle staying in front of those guys with Catoor and Pagula (those are slow white guys, lol)

• And they don’t have a rim protector + their back up big is HORRIBLE 

Lastly: 

Syracuse: 48th in No. of possessions/game | 37th in adjusted tempo ⇒ So this team does play fast 

VT doesn’t play super fast = they are 168th in Adjusted Tempo (A little bit above average for D1) → But like I said their just so bad on the road defensively and I think this is going to be an up tempo game → Especially if Cuse gets a lead early = VT is going to be forced to play faster than they want 

Take CUSE Team Total over 77.5 here as my opinion of the day

College Basketball Best Bets (Sunday, 2/25/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 25, 2024 | 2:23 A.M. CST

Note: Went 1-1 on our best bets yesterday. Kind of a tough beat on Baylor. Baylor was absolutely dominated in the first half by Houston, but then the Bears were by far the better team in the second half. We were catching 2.5 and Baylor had a free throw with 4.4 seconds to go that essentially ends the game with us covering no matter what happens the final 4 ticks of the clock. Unfortunately the free throw was missed, and the Bears couldn’t buy a bucket in OT. Kentucky was a rocking chair winner, leading the entire way by 20+ and winning by 25. I likely could’ve had a better overall record had I pushed more plays yesterday, but knowing I’m due for a little spill of bad luck considering how hot we’ve been the past month, I didn’t want to push 8-10 plays and have it all go wrong in one day. Nonetheless, 1-1 is still not a bad day, and we’re just going to keep chipping away at the board day-by-day to generate consistent profits. Let’s look at the board for Sunday.

Best Bets: These will be 2U plays. Short summaries as I’m working on a CBB recap video right now.

1) Rutgers -2 vs. Maryland: Rutgers has been playing much better basketball as of late. They are a significantly better team on their home court, and Maryland’s home/road splits are horrific. Rutgers defense will be too much for Maryland and they will really struggle to score in this spot. I like Rutgers a lot here. I think they have a legitimate shot to win it by double digits.

2) South Florida +1.5 vs. SMU: South Florida pulled off the outright upset against FAU last week in front of a sold out crowd for what was probably the biggest win EVER for that program. So it was only natural to think they were going to have a let down the next game as they traveled to 8-16 UTSA a few days later. Despite playing about as bad as they possibly could, and trailing late, USF found a way to make some big time defensive plays down the stretch. They never folded, when it would’ve been very easy to do so. And they found a way to get out of San Antonio with a victory. Now they travel back home for another big time game. If the Bulls win today, it would mean they have a 2 game lead on FAU with just 3 games left to play in the season. There’s a very high chance a win here means an outright regular season conference title for the Bulls. I expect this to be another sold out crowd, and a great environment. Give me South Florida +1.5 as they take down SMU and take a big step towards winning their first ever American Conference Crown.

College Basketball Best Bets (Saturday, 2/24/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 24, 2024 | 4:18 A.M. CST

IMPORTANT NOTE: I’ve been on an absolute tear lately. Now, I honestly believe I’m one of the best college basketball handicappers out there, I know I can maintain a very high percentage of winners. Last year I did finish over 70% on the season, and I’m on pace to have a shot at doing that again this year. Additionally, usually the end of the season is BEST part of the year, largely because we have more datapoints to examine. But I also want to note that the pace we’re currently on is not sustainable in the LONG RUN (I believe it’s in the 80% range over the past few weeks). Obviously, I hope we keep the run going today and even all the way through the regular season (and it’s definitely possible). But I also want to caution that when you get this hot you are always due for a rough day at some point. I only say that to make sure all those following my picks aren’t pressing on the heater. Stick to your unit sizing, practice good money management, and never chase your money. My best friends who have tailed my picks for years know that there are going to be some down days, and down weeks, but in the long run we’re going to win A LOT. Okay enough of that - let’s have a GREAT Saturday and let’s keep this heater going!!

Best Bets (2 Unit Plays): I’m going to post my two top plays of the day here without breakdowns, as I spent a long time working on these picks and it’s now past 4 A.M. (LOL). I will try to get a YouTube Video out AND some written breakdowns on each of these picks, plus a few bonus games in the morning. There is a HIGH chance I add some official best bets tomorrow morning and/or throughout the day so if you follow, make sure to check in on the website throughout the day.

Best Bet 1: BAYLOR BEARS +2.5 vs. Houston Cougars

Best Bet 2: KENTUCKY WILDCATS -2 vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

• If you can find a cheap moneyline on Kentucky that would be good too, just to not have to worry about the points. I laid 2 because I got 2 (-110). Taking them moneyline not a bad option, but -2.5 -110 is okay too

Full Disclosure:

Leaning towards Wake Forest and UCLA but there’s a few things that are scaring me off these two right now. I would hold off on these two plays until I can decide whether I’m going to play them or not.

UCLA is far superior to USC, and the number is a bit skewed due to UCLA’s season long struggles (they’ve been way better lately). BUT, USC kind of matches up okay with them due to UCLA relying on points in the paint so much

Wake Forest is undefeated at home in ACC play. They take on Duke at home, and despite being unranked taking on a Top 10 team, the Demon Deacons are laying 2.5 points. It’s been bet up from 1.5 which I like. I also like that Wake did not shoot the ball well at all in these teams first matchup not long ago, and yet they only lost by 8 on the road. The only thing scaring me is Wake shot out of their mind against Pittsburgh their last game. I am leaning towards the Deacs right now, but haven’t pulled the trigger. I can’t tell where the the line is going to move in this game because without a doubt the public is going to come in on the Blue Devils, but there’s already been pro money on the Deacs early, so when limits increase in the morning we could get to 3. I won’t take it if it get’s to 3. Has to be 2.5 or lower for me to even consider adding it tomorrow.

Best of luck - check back throughout the day for more picks. Let’s start off the day with a Baylor winner and go 2-0!!

College Basketball Best Bet (Thursday, 2/22/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 22, 2024 | 5:06 P.M. CST

This Week Summary: We’ve been off to a BLISTERING hot start this week. I believe we are 9-1 in our last 10 plays overall. Going back to last week 19-4 run. Obviously that run is incredible, but all good things will come to an end. It’s nearly impossible to keep up that pace, but the reality is that in the totality of the college basketball season I’ve finished above 65% 3 of the last 4 seasons. So we’re on a high right now, there may be a low coming soon, but we just stay the course and continue to pick WINNERS!!

Tonight’s Card: I thought last night’s card was average. Tonight’s card is real tough. There is just not a ton of actionable games tonight. I considered going to Minnesota, who has been a covering machine. Fading Ohio State following that emotional win over #2 Purdue doesn’t seem like a bad idea at all, however the number on that game is just too high for me. Minnesota has been undervalued most of the season and I think they’re a bit overpriced tonight - so we’re staying away from that one. Instead of a big conference, we are going to go to a much smaller game, but still two good teams.

Game: Grand Canyon Lopes (24-2) @ Tarleton State Texans (18-7)

• Line: Grand Canyon -5 (-110) | Tarleton State +5 (-110)

  • Some places dealing 4.5, but you can still find plenty of 5 out there if you shop around

• Location: Wisdom Gym, Stephenville, TX (Tarleton State Home Arena)

• Time: 7:00 P.M. CST

Summary:

We are traveling to the Western Athletic Conference for our Best Bet tonight as we have the top two teams in the conference squaring off. Grand Canyon comes into this one as one of the best mid-major teams in the country. The Lopes come into this one 14-1 in conference play, with their lone loss coming at Seattle (3rd place team in the conference). Their lone non-conference loss came against South Carolina, an SEC team who was ranked as high as #11 in the country about a week ago. This is also a program that has experienced success in recent years, making two NCAA tournament appearances the past three seasons, although they were unable to secure a win in either of those tourneys. The two Grand Canyon teams that made the NCAA Tournament under Head Coach Bryce Drew had a respective 7 and 12 losses in their first and second trips to the Dance. This GCU team has just two losses with only a few games to play. So there is no doubt this Grand Canyon team is as legit as a team can be coming out of the WAC.

On the other side we have the second best team in the WAC in the Tarleton State Texans. The Texans come into this one playing some really good basketball. They are 11-3 in conference (2 games back in the loss column of GCU), and the Texans have won 8 of their last 9 games including 6 straight coming into this matchup. This is a massive game for the Texans if they want to have any shot of catching Grand Canyon in the regular season conference title race, and I believe it’s a pretty good spot for Tarelton State to pull off an upset.

When looking at the matchup the first key thing to look at is the home/road advantage for the Texans. First off, as good as Grand Canyon has been this season, they gotten to 14 conference wins by just running every team they play out of the gym. In fact, they’ve played their fair share of close games. Last time out they faced off against a Cal Baptist team that is in the middle of the pack in the WAC (7-7 in conference play) and they came out with just a 3-point victory, 79-76. At home against the third best team in the conference, the Lopes only defeated Seattle by 7. Both games they played against the 4th place team in the conference (UT Arlington) they won by just 6 and 7 points. And then we look at their road games. They lost to Seattle (their only conference loss) on the road by 7. They barely escaped Stephen F. Austin by two points, 53-51. So, again, I’m not saying GCU is bad on the road, but their distinctly worse than they are at home, where they carry one of the better home court advantages in the country.

Then we look at Tarleton at home where the Texans have been really solid the entirety of of this season. In conference play the Texans have just one home loss, which came against Southern Utah 7 games ago (the last loss they had overall). On the season the Texans are 9-2 at home overall, and they are 5-1 at home in conference play. What’s even more important though, is their two home losses this season have come by a total of 6 points (two 3 point losses). And again, we are catching 5 points in this spot. When we look at Tarleton’s Arena (Wisdom Gym), it’s relatively small. The arena holds just 3,000 fans, which can be an advantage if that place gets packed. Tarleton does a pretty good job getting fans to come out for big games. They had about 73% of the arena filled back in their last home game against SFA, and that is a team that is just middle of the pack in the conference. I believe the Texans are going to have a packed house tonight, as everyone knows how good Grand Canyon is. This absolutely feels like a spot where the crowd comes out, we have a really good home court environment, with a good home team getting way up to play the conference juggernaut. We basically saw this same exact thing last week when South Florida took on FAU at home in a massive conference game. South Florida, who has never packed their arena, sold that game out and had a crazy environment. The kids got up for the game, and South Florida was able to ride the crowd to a big upset over FAU. I see a similar outcome here tonight.

Last couple of notes of information here. Tarleton is coming off three straight road games. The other two times this season that the Texans have come back home after two or more road consecutive road games, they’re 2-0 in those games. Additionally, Grand Canyon is now traveling on the road after a three game home stand. The last time they went on the road following three straight home games this season, they suffered their lone loss in conference play this year to Seattle, 79-86. So everything here points to the Texans, which is why we are going to back them in this spot. The great thing is, we don’t need them to win the game outright as we are catching 5 points here. As I mentioned before, MAKE SURE to grab the best number. There is PLENTY of 5s out there. Get a +5 ticket. We have seen some professional money come in on the Texans here as well, which is why we went from 5.5 to 5 and even to 4.5 in some spots. Good luck and let’s keep this hot streak going baby!!

OFFICIAL PICK: TARLETON STATE +5 (-110)

College Basketball Best Bet (2/21/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 21, 2024 | 5:03 P.M. CST

Note: I don’t love the college basketball slate tonight. I had a fantastic night and we’ve been on an absolute heater, so my instinct is to try to find something here, but there’s really only one play/spot that I really like tonight. Rather than push something that isn’t there, here’s my favorite play of the night, and we will find some more value later in the week hopefully!!

Game: UNLV Runnin’ Rebels @ Air Force Falcons

• Line: UNLV -6 (-110) | Air Force +6 (-110)

• Location: Clune Arena, Colorado Springs, CO (Air Force Home Arena)

• Time: 9:00 P.M. CST

Game Summary:

Tonight the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels travel to Colorado Springs to take on the Air Force Falcons. It’s quite interesting how narrative in sports changes from year-to-year. About 11 months ago going into the NCAA Tournament, the narrative was that the Mountain West was not a very good conference, and once March hit they tended to struggle in the NCAA Tournament. After San Diego State put that narrative to bed with a run all the way to the National Title, this league is now one that many “talking heads” believe is one of the better conferences in the country. According to many bracketology experts, the MW is likely to get six bids into this years NCAA Tournament, and some even believe UNLV has a shot to make it seven, depending on how they finish the season.

One team that has no shot to make the NCAA tournament though, is the Air Force Falcons. They are the worst team in the Mountain West, sitting at an abysmal 1-11 in conference play (8-16 overall). Their lone win came against this very team they play in tonights matchup: UNLV. That game was by far the worst performance of the year from the Runnin’ Rebels, as they trailed Air Force by 15 at halftime, shot worse than 32% from the floor and 18% from downtown, and they lost the game by 32 points. That game came at home, and the Rebels were literally laughed off the court by their fans. It was an embarrassing performance by UNLV, no doubt, but let’s also look at the numbers for Air Force in that game. In that matchup, the Falcons knocked down 14 of 28 three-point attempts (50% from beyond the arc), and shot an incredible 68% eFG%. Now, the one thing Air Force does do well on the season is shoot the ball; they knock down 37% of their threes, and they shoot 54% eFG% on the season, but those numbers against UNLV in that game are still significantly higher than their season averages. All that considered, I would be shocked to see Air Force have a great shooting night in this spot. Not only are they unlikely to replicate their first matchup, but you know UNLV is going to come into this game motivated to knock off the Falcons in a big way, after that embarrassment they put on display a four weeks ago. This is a great spot for the Rebels.

After that terrible loss, UNLV really showed their mental toughness. A team unlikely to make the NCAA tournament at that point, coming off a 32 point loss to the worst team in the country, and their response was to go on a 5-game winning streak, which included going to the Pit in New Mexico and knocking off the ranked Lobos. In that stretch the Rebels were playing some outstanding basketball.

UNLV currently sits at 7-5, however they are one terrible call and a few plays away from having 10 conference wins. First off, playing against Utah State back in January, the Rebels led by 4 with just 11 seconds remaining. The game seemed to be at hand, as the commentator literally said “Utah State looking for a miracle.” As he said that, Utah State nailed a three with about 7 seconds left, and on the release of the shot a foul was called. The foul, though, was not on the shooter but away from the ball, which meant that not only did the three-pointer count, but the Aggies got to head to the line for a 1-and-1 and could actually take the lead. The college rule of allowing a 5-point play is already ridiculous, but if you were watching the game you also could see that it was one of the worst foul calls you’ve seen all year. Utah State went onto make BOTH free throws and win the game by 1. It was a game in which UNLV had a 99% probability of winning. Then we look at their most recent outing against rival Nevada. In that game UNLV had a 95% probability of winning as they led by double digits with under 10 minutes to play in the game. They also led by 7 with the ball with just 3 minutes to go. A really tough sequence of events squandered the game for UNLV and they dropped the game to Nevada by 3. Toss in a game at Colorado State in which they led by 4 with under 5 minutes to go, and they legitimately could have 10 wins. My overall point being, this team is not far off from being atop this conference that everyone seems so high on.

Next, let’s look at how the Rebels play on the road, as this is a true road game for them (and yes I hate taking road teams NORMALLY). Overall this season, the Runnin’ Rebels are 5-2 straight up in true road games. In conference play they are 4-2 on the road, and they are currently on a 3-game road winning streak, including a win at ranked (at the time) New Mexico. New Mexico has one of the better home court advantages in the country. In fact, their only two losses on the road this season came at San Diego State and at Colorado State, both of which are Top-25 ranked teams, with great home court advantages, and teams who are projected to be Top 6 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. And, as I mentioned earlier, the Rebels were a play or two away from winning at CSU, in which case they would be 6-1 on the road this season. Now they travel to Colorado Springs, for one of the worst home court advantages in college basketball. This is not going to be a gym that is rocking or even loud tonight. And even if it was, it wouldn’t matter, as the Rebels have been the best road team in the conference this season.

Lastly, UNLV is also coming off a loss here. On the season, the Rebels are 7-2 coming off a loss of any kind. I think it is also really important to note that they are coming off a heartbreaking loss to their rival Nevada. That game I discussed a little bit above, but the Rebels led by 8 at halftime. They led for the entirety of the second half, including by 7, with the ball, with 3 minutes to play. They also had gotten a stop, up by 1 with 45 seconds left, but allowed an offensive rebound and a bucket to lose the lead. Why is this important? Well, remember the heartbreaker mentioned above that they lost to Utah State in horrific fashion? Following that loss, this team went to Boise State and handed the Broncos their first home loss in 22 games. It was the nations longest home winning streak before UNLV pulled the upset. So this is a team that is extremely mentally tough, and they will be ready to go tonight after that tough beat against Nevada. They also have revenge on their mind as I mentioned before, which I think is important when trying to win by margin. I don’t think UNLV just wants to win this game, they want to win it by a lot.

Last Note: UNLV is also on the bubble for the NCAA Tourney. They are definitely a long shot for an at-large bid, but a second loss to 8-16 Air Force would 100% knock them completely out of contention. So this is also a big game just in terms of the totality of their season goals. For all those reasons, we’re going to fade the bad Falcons and back the solid UNLV RUNNIN’ REBELS on the road tonight to win and cover the 6.

OFFICIAL PICK: UNLV -6 (-110)

• Units: 2

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