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CFB Week 2 Early Line Moves & Market Analysis (9/2/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 2, 2024 | 5:47 A.M. CST
Some early numbers I like:
Texas State -2.5 vs. UTSA: Did not love what I saw from either team week 1, but Texas State has a better QB by far. The game is in San Marcos which is a small advantage (but it’s something). I’m much higher on Texas State this season than I am on UTSA. And I’m getting the better team at home laying less than a FG so I like the idea of that. I believe we see a line move through the key number of 3 early this week.
Texas Tech vs. Washington State OVER 66: I couldn’t believe the total was this low when I saw it. It would be one thing to give up 40+ in regulation to a good team, but to a below average FCS team. That’s PATHETIC. Tech had no problem scoring though. And neither did Wazzu for that matter. They also played an FCS team in Portland, and they covered this number on their own (70 points scored). They also gave up 30. So both defenses looked bad against offenses that were much worse than the ones they’ll see this Saturday. Yes 66 is a big number with the new CFB rules (No stop clock on first downs). But barring some drastic changes in one week, neither team can stop a runny nose. So I lean over here strongly. I believe we see the over take money here, and close this line closer to 70.
Some early line movements I saw
Texas @ Michigan:
Line going into week 1: Texas -3.5
Opening Line AFTER Week 1: Texas -7
Current Line: Texas -6.5
So what this tells me watching this movement is that oddsmakers are heavily factoring in what they saw on Saturday. Texas was a 3.5 point favorite (3 in some spots even) going to Michigan. Texas goes out and wins their game 52-0 and looks impressive in the process. Michigan was very underwhelming against Fresno State at home on the other hand. And so the adjustment was large. However when Texas opened back up at -7, that lasted very short. Which means that there was a professional appetite for the Wolverines at that key number of 7. My guess is we stay at the 6.5 or 7 range depending on how the books want to play it. But it looks like if the number does get back to 7, it’ll get bought up by professionals very quickly
Other Line Moves:
Nebraska Opened -6 and got bet up all the way to -7.5. Lots of pro money on the Huskers. No surprising after Colorado failed to cover as 10.5 point favorites, and nearly lost the game outright to an FCS opponent in North Dakota State.
CFB Week 1 Review/Analysis (9/2/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 2, 2024 | 5:34 A.M. CST
Last Week Wrap Up:
CFB Week Record: 1-2 (Miami -2.5 = W, Texas A&M -2.5 = L, Georgia State +21.5 = L)
NFL Week Record: N/A
Summary:
Not that 1-2 is the worst week in the world, but that one stings after starting 1-0 with an EASY rocking chair winner with Miami -2.5 over Florida. The Hurricanes looked all the part of a top 10 team in the country. They were able to go into hostile territory in Florida and win outright by 4 scores (41-17). That game was never in doubt, and Saturday started off great.
Then came the bad: Texas A&M never trailed in the first half, and the defense was playing outstanding. Then when Notre Dame did take the lead in the 3rd quarter, the Aggies responded with a touchdown of their own to tie the game at 13 with 11 minutes to play. But they just could NOT get a thing going offensively. I will be significantly downgrading A&M in my power ratings after that performance. I was high on the defense (and they played great), but I truly believed that Connor Weigman was a better QB than that. Over his 1st two seasons with A&M he threw 16 TDs and just 2 picks; and last season completed nearly 70% of his passes in the 4 games he started. But he was HORRIFICALLY bad in this game. Threw for only 100 yards and two INTs, no TDs, while completing only 40% of his passes. It was one of the worst QB performances I’ve seen in a collegiate game in a long time, and it came at home. Had he just been serviceable in the game the Aggies likely win, because Riley Leonard for the Irish was terrible as well; he just didn’t make the big mistakes that Weigman did, and he used his legs quite a bit more (especially late). I can swallow the A&M loss. ND had a 3rd and long with 10 minutes to go in a tie game, and they were 1/10 on third down before that play. If A&M gets off the field there, probably a decent chance they win. Could’ve gone either way, and in the long run I’m happy taking a home team in a matchup like that; over the long run laying 2.5 there is profitable.
The tougher loss was the Georgia State game. The Panthers shot themselves in the foot about as often as you could, and still should’ve easily covered the number. Again we got out and got +21.5 and it closed +20. So there was significant pro money on our side. Early in the game Georgia State was inside their own 25 and the center snapped the ball as the QB was checking the play at the line; that fumble led to 7 points that GT was basically gifted. GT also scored two Touchdowns on 4th and goal, both of which would likely have been FG attempts had Georgia State been half decent on third down (allowed them to get inside the 3 yard line on 3rd & long twice). Both times GT scored on fourth and goal. All of those things going against us, we still nearly covered. The difference in the cover came on Georgia State’s lone touchdown. After scoring they went for two to cut the lead to 14. And on the play QB Christian Veilleux hit his WR in the hands for an easy 2-point conversion, and the kid dropped it. I knew right away it was going to cost us the bet, because that would’ve given us a 2 score cushion late. STILL Georgia State had a chance to cover on their final possession, and they moved the ball all the way inside the 10 yard line with a first and goal. After a 2 yard gain on first down, Veilleux was injured, forcing him to come out for a play, and forcing Georgia State to predictably run the ball with a backup QB in. They lost 2 yards on that play, which doomed the drive. Then on 4th and goal from the 7 they could’ve kicked a FG which would’ve covered for us, and instead decided to go for it and couldn’t convert. GT got a few first downs and ran the clock out and that doomed us to a 1-2 start.
As I always preach, it’s the long run not the short run. I’m never going to sweat a 1-2 week or apologize for how it went. I always shoot it straight, win or lose. Tough first week - I wanted to give out more winners than losers on the first week of CFB, but luckily we have about 17 more weeks of this great season, and there will be countless opportunities to profit.
Check out my early line analysis as well as my best bets for this week on the blog! Also check out the YouTube Channel (link on home page) for full breakdowns of picks for the week and last weeks games!
College Football Week 1 Best Bets (8/31/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 29, 2024 | 6:37 P.M.
For detailed video breakdowns of these picks, visit my YouTube channel. All three picks are posted there: Search Slobberknocker Sports on Youtube or click the link on the homepage of this website.
Details of Bets This Season:
For College Football and the NFL we will have 2 bankrolls. Each bankroll will have 4 sized plays, 1 star - 4 star:
1 Star = .5% Bankroll
2 Star = 1% Bankroll
3 Star = 1.5% Bankroll
4 Star = 2% Bankroll
Best Bets:
1) Texas A&M -2.5 (-110) vs. Notre Dame = 2 Units
2) Miami (FL) -2.5 (-110) @ Florida = 2 Units
3) Georgia State +22 (-110) @ Georgia Tech = 2 Units
Again for detailed breakdowns of my picks, checkout the YouTube Channel @slobberknockersports
Check back here Saturday morning at 10 A.M. CST & or 2 P.M. CST for any additional plays. Sometimes I add plays on here, but they are always posted ahead of time and time stamped on a new post. Thanks and good luck!!
NFL Pre-Season Week 1 Best Bets
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 10, 2024 | 3:34 P.M. CST
NFL Preseason Best Bets (Week 1: Saturday)
Best Bet No. 1: Seattle Seahawks -1.5 (-110) 1st Half vs. LA Chargers
In this pre-season matchup I’m mainly looking at the starters. Both teams will be without their starting QBs for this game, which strongly favors the Seahawks. Seattle will be starting Sam Howell, who started for the Commanders last season. Although Howell did not impress anyone with his performance last year, it was hard to actually evaluate him with an incompetent Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator leading him. Eric Bienamy might be the worst OC in the history of football, and it basically gave Howell no shot at success. On the other side the Chargers will be starting Easton Stick. Although Stick did start a few games towards the end of the year last season, I don’t think he’s remotely in the realm of Sam Howell. Stick was one of the least efficient QBs in the league in the games he did start. So big advantage with Howell over Stick. Additionally, the Seahawks look to be playing MORE of their starters on defense than the Chargers, from a team that already has a better defense than LA. That not only means a couple series for the 1st team, but also that the 2nd team will be in for longer as well. Because they are both units and both QBs are likely to play around a half, we’re just going to go with the 1st half. But I see a big advantage here for Seattle, at least early in the game. I could make an argument for the entire game spread, but I’d rather lay less points and not have to worry about garbage time. So we’re going Seattle -1.5 in the first half (did open at -1 and has moved half a point)
Official Pick: Seattle Seahawks -1.5 (-110) 1H → ½ Unit
Best Bet No. 2: Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints UNDER 38 (-110)
Derek Carr is going to start, but I’d be surprised to see him play more than one series. And considering it will be his first series of the season, I’m not too worried about him leading a TD drive. Following that series we’re going to see a couple of young QBs, neither of which I believe will have much success offensively: Jake Haener & Spencer Rattler. We’re talking about a Saints offense that was horrible last season, playing with mostly their 2nd and 3rd units in their very first preseason game. Speaking of lack of production, on the other side for the Cards, Kyler Murray is NOT playing tonight, so we will see Desmond Ridder & Clayton Tune. Marvin Harrison is likely going to be in for one series, but it’s irrelevant since Desmond Ridder couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat.
Based on the QBs likely to play the majority of the game, as well as the fact that both these teams were extremely poor offensively last year, I think this game has a good shot at going under the total. Not to mention the majority of preseason games thus far have been quite low scoring, with the exception of the Hall of Fame game last week. We’re going to make our second best bet UNDER 38 in this game. Shop around for the best number, because some shops are still offering 38.5
Official Pick: UNDER 38 (-110) → ½ Unit
Wimbledon Men’s Final Best Bet (7/14/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | July 14, 2024 | 12:59 A.M. CST
Wimbledon Men’s Final: Carlos Alcaraz -145 | Novak Djokovic +115
Games Spread: Alcaraz -1..5 (-125) | Djokovic +1.5 (-115)
Set Spread: Alcaraz -1.5 (+140) | Djokovic +1.5 (-190)
Quick Summary Explaining Lines Above:
Just for quick explanation of the odds for those who are unfamiliar with how tennis betting works. The numbers at the top are the odds to win the match outright. So Alcaraz is the short favorite to win the match (-145) with Djokovic as a slight underdog (+115). The “Game Spread” is essentially a spread on the TOTAL GAMES won in the match. So who actually wins the match is irrelevant - it’s just the total number of games at the end of the match. So, say Djokovic loses the match in 5 sets, but he won two of the sets 6-1, 6-1, and Alcaraz won his sets 7-6, 6-1, 6-2; obviously Alcaraz won the match outright, but if you bet him -1.5 games you would lose the bet because the total games won would be 21-21 and Alcaraz was -1.5 on games. Lastly, the set spread is just the total number of sets won. So betting Djokovic +1.5 sets would mean you are basically betting Djokovic to either win the match or lose in 5 sets. If he were to lose in less than 5 sets he would lose by 2 or more sets, while you only have +1.5 sets on your ticket. And obviously vice versa for Alcaraz, as you would need him to win by 2 or more total sets.
Pick:
Okay so we are going to look to a line actually AWAY from all of those I listed above. I examined all of those and decided to stay away. I think the winner of this match is a legitimate coin flip, so if you aren’t sure on who to back I would probably just take Djokovic because of the price. You’re getting plus money in a coin flip, as opposed to laying a dollar fifty or so on Alcaraz. That’s also where the early money has come in, which you have to believe is mostly sharp. We saw it open Alcaraz -150, Djokovic +120, and it’s moved about 10 points towards Djokovic (-140, +110) depending on the book. So I do think I would give a SLIGHT lean based on price to Djokovic in the match. But it’s hard to bet against Alcaraz right now. He isn’t playing his best tennis, and yet he just finds ways to win these matches. It’s quite remarkable. He’s also had the tougher road of the two to get here, while Djokovic has had anything but a tough road. However, to underestimate a top 3 all time player based on an easy road would be a mistake - it’s not as if he is foreign to playing against great players; he’s beaten some of the greats of all time in Grand Slam finals numerous times. This match is also on the court where he is probably at his best. He’s looking for a record tying 8th Wimbledon Title. In terms of consistency, despite the easier road, Djokovic has definitely looked better. He has dropped just 2 sets the entire tournament, while Alcaraz has dropped at least one set in 3 of his last 4 matches in the tournament. He also had to come from behind just to beat Francis Tiafoe a few rounds prior to this matchup, as he faced a 4th set tiebreaker, down 2-1. He was able to win the breaker and rally to win the 5th set easily (6-2). But he was on the ropes against a much inferior opponent.
If I had to cap this, taking price out of it, I WANT to say Alcaraz because I’d strongly prefer to root for him. However, it’s hard to look away from Djokovic here. He seems to be more motivated than I’ve seen him in a long time. He’s got revenge on his mind from last year’s Wimbledon Final, losing to Alcaraz in an epic match. But I also think he knows that this is really important if he wants to win another major. Yes, he could still win the U.S. Open coming up next month, but when you are already sitting in the final, it’s hard to not think this is going to be the best chance you will ever have again. It’s not as if Alcaraz is going anywhere. You also have Janik Sinner on the uprise (Austrailian Open Champ) who was not 100% in this tourney. Medvedev is still playing at a top level as well. And Djokovic is 37, coming off knee surgery. He already had a rocky start to the year. This may very well be his last, best chance at winning a major. And it PROBABLY is his last chance at winning it all here at Wimbledon. So I’m going to say take Djokovic in the match IF you are looking to bet a winner. HOWEVER, that’s not my best bet.
My best bet is actually going to be on NOVAK DJOKOVIC to win the FIRST SET at +105, and here is why. I do think Djokovic is going to win this match. However, I also think there’s a decent chance that this match goes 5 sets. I’d be absolutely SHOCKED if it went less than 4. The only way that happens is if Djokovic is forced to retire due to injury - which is very unlikely. I also know that considering Djokovic’s age and health concerns, if he were to lose the first set, I think it’s pretty unlikely that he ends up winning the match. I think he also KNOWS this - the first set is going to be vitally important to him, and I believe he’s going to play that first set like it’s a 5th set at Wimbledon. He’s going to give it everything to take a lead in this match. That’s not TRADITIONALLY how Novak starts - he tends to start slow at times. But he has been pretty darn consistent in this tournament. Alcaraz on the other hand has really struggled early in matches and he’s been erratic at times. Multiple times he’s come out and lost the first set late in this tourney (Tiafoe, Tommy Paul, Medvedev). He even mentioned that he was nervous when he came out against Medvedev in the semis, as he went on to lose that first set. So I just believe that the first set favors Novak significantly. We also have the fact that he’s the best breaker player in history - so if he just doesn’t get broke in the first set, we have a very good shot at winning. If he ends up breaking Alcaraz once I’m almost certain he wins the first set without a breaker. Additionally, Alcarazy still won all those matches in which he lost the first set. So rather than relying on an older Novak with a surgically repaired knee to play 4-5 full sets and deliver for us, I’m going to back him early. Try to cash the ticket before 9 o’clock central time, and enjoy the rest of the match rooting for an Alcaraz comeback.
Official Pick: NOVAK DJOKOVIC TO WIN 1ST SET +105
Units: 2
WNBA Best Bet + NHL Stanley Cup Game 7 (Saturday, 6/22/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 22, 2024 | 5:58 P.M. CST
WNBA Best Bet: Phoenix Mercury +5.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx
We’re looking to back the road dog in the night game here on Saturday night, with the Phoenix Mercury catching 5.5 points. The Mercury come in 8-7, while the Minnesota Lynx have gotten off to a blistering 12-3 start their first 15 outings this season. On the surface, the line makes sense, with Phoenix a middling team (currently 4th in their conference & 6th overall) catching a little over 5 points against a team who is currently 1st in the western conference, and has just lost 3 games all season. However, the line is a bit inflated according to my numbers for a number of reasons. I make this closer to 2.
The main thing to take into account is Brittany Griener. Griener did not play the first 10 games for the Mercury this season, as they got off to terrible 4-6 start. However, since Griener has returned to the lineup, Phoenix has won 4 of their previous 5 games. Additionally, on the surface, it looks like a very good home team in the Lynx (8-1 at home) going up against a poor road team in the Mercury (2-6 on the road). However, the Mercury have played just one road game with Griener in the lineup, a game Phoenix won in overtime over Dallas. Griener is a huge difference maker on both ends of the floor. On offense she provides Phoenix with easy buckets inside, while drawing a number of fouls (and knocking down a high percentage of her free throws). On the defensive end she’s an elite rim protector at this level of basketball and a beast on the glass.
The Mercury did face the Lynx earlier this month (5 games ago) and Phoenix squeaked out a 1 point victory, 81-80. However, that was Griener’s first game back, and she played just 21 minutes (as opposed to 33+ on average the next 4 games). With Griener back in a flow, and Mercury finally healthy I believe we’re getting some value here for a team that is playing much better basketball than their record indicates. I also have come to realize that homecourt advantage in the WNBA, especially in a regular season game, is highly overrated. Especially with the travel now being easier to deal with in the league, we’re talking about a slight advantage playing in front of home fans (who really don’t care all that much who wins if we’re being honest).
All of those reasons in mind, I believe we are getting some value here at 5.5. I could easily make a case for the Mercury on the moneyline at +175. It might be worth it to throw .2 units on them moneyline along with a full unit on the Mercury +5.5. We will stick with just the points on the official pick, but I absolutely believe Pheonix is a live dog here. Back the Mercury as they get the road dub for us tonight.
Official Pick: Phoenix Mercury +5.5 (-110)
Units: 1
Overall WNBA Record 2024 Season: 4-0 (100%, +4.0 Units)
NHL Stanley Cup Game 7 Best Bet: Florida Panthers ML (-120 or better)
The Stanley Cup Finals have been a whirlwind up to this point. The Florida Panthers came into this series as a short favorite (around -125 depending on the book). It was more than understandable that the Panthers were favored in this series, as they had looked like the best and most complete hockey team through the first three rounds of the playoffs. That’s not to diminish Edmonton’s run, however the Oilers had to come back from down 3-2 in the second round to eliminate the Vancouver Canucks. They followed that up with a series against the Stars where they trailed 2-1, before rattling off 3 straight victories. I felt that the price on the series was actually a bit short, largely due to the fact that most public bettors tend to lean towards the star-power of the Oilers and Connor McDavid. Thus, I put a decent sized bet on Florida to win the series at the -125 odds. I felt pretty darn good about that ticket after the Panthers hung on in game 3 on the road to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. But, in one of the more remarkable comebacks we’ve seen in sports, the Oilers somehow found a way to rattle off three straight wins of their own. And, thus we sit in a game 7, winner take all season finale.
Why Edmonton Will Win:
The Oilers have all the momentum in the series, and they come into game 7 with all the confidence in the world after beating up on Sergei Bobrovsky over the past three games. After allowing just 4 goals in games 1-3 (with two coming late in game 3 when Florida had a 4-1 lead), the Oilers have beaten Bobrovsky 18 times in games 4-6, making him look like a completely different player. Not only is the confidence high for the Oilers offense, but one has to wonder where Bobrovsky’s head is at after having such a rollarcoaster of a series.
Additionally, the Oilers have the best player on the ice in Connor McDavid. And, despite past years where if McDavid struggled to put up points the Oilers had no shot, they proved in game 6 that they can find different ways to win even if McDavid is held pointless. Additionally, the Oilers front line has given the Panthers fits in the past three games, and one could argue that the Panthers don’t have an answer for it at this point. The physicality we saw Florida display the first half of this series has all but disappeared in the last couple outings. And, if the stars show up in game 7 and are able to put up a couple goals early, it’s hard to see Florida mentally recovering from that.
Lastly, Stuart Skinner has been phenomenal in elimination games this post-season. He’s a perfect 5-0 in those elimination games(as are the Oilers as a team) with a save percentage of 93% (106/114). That’s 2.5 % higher than his save percentage in the playoffs as a whole. The defense has also been tremendous killing off 47 of their last 48 power plays. If Skinner continues to play that well in another big game, and the defense is able to hold Florida scoreless in PP situations, the Panthers will certainly need Bobrovsky to be elite, which he has not been the last 3 games.
Why Florida Will Win:
The Panthers have still been the best, and most consistent team throughout the playoffs. Their physicality is unmatched by almost any team in the NHL, and despite the fact that it’s dwindled the past few outings, it almost certainly will be a focal point for the Panthers in game 7. Physicality is something that Edmonton has traditionally struggled with, as the Oilers are more of a finesse team.
Although the Panthers offense has struggled the last 3 games, they have had no problem scoring in these playoffs against much better defenses than Edmonton. Add in the fact that Florida is back home, and that gives them a distinct edge in this game. Hockey home ice advantage is likely less important that most other major sports, however I do think it matters in this game. In the series the Panthers are 2-1 on their home ice, with the lone loss coming in game 5 (5-3). In the playoffs as a whole, Florida is 8-4 on their home ice. They’ve also not lost consecutive home games in any single series in this playoff run. The lone time they lost back-to-back home games came in between series (lost to Boston game 5 then lost to New York game 3), with three consecutive road games sandwiched between them. Thus, I do think Florida being at home tonight matters a great deal. Especially if they are able to get a lead early on and get the crowd into it.
Bobrovski may not have been great the last 3 games, but he’s still by far the better goalie in this series. He’s without a doubt a streaky player. If you watched game 1 of this Stanley Cup Finals you can see why he’s considered a top NHL goalie. Some of the saves in that game were absolutely absurd. It’s hard to imagine he has ANOTHER bad game, after surrendering 18 goals in his 3 previous starts. Additionally, Stanley Cup Finals Game 7s tend to be very low scoring (average of just about 4 goals per game). A grinded out, more physical game, with less scoring opportunities favors the Panthers and the better goaltender. If Bobrovski is on his game on Monday night, it’s going to be extremely tough for the Oilers to find goals, even with all the talent on the Edmonton side.
Lastly, the mental side of this handicap is overrated. Yes, the Panthers have blown an 0-3 series lead. And, yes they could be shocked enough to come out and lay an egg, especially if Edmonton is able to find the back of the net early. However, hockey teams are often very resiliant. That’s why we’ve seen teams down 0-3 in a series comeback and force a game 7 more in the NHL than in any other major sport in America. It’s happened just twice ever in the MLB, and it has happened just 4 times in the NBA in each league’s respective history. In the NHL it’s occurred 9 times (this being the 10th). Oddly enough, the team who blew the 3-0 lead is actually 5-4 in game 7. Teams who blew the 0-3 lead in the other major sports are 1-5. So there really isn’t any evidence to support the idea that the Panthers are at a mental disadvantage here. In fact, probably the opposite. One could argue that the energy expended to comeback from an 0-3 deficit is enough to burn a team out when they finally get to that game 7. Lastly, Paul Maurice (head coach of the Florida Panthers) is a perfect 4-0 in game 7s, and it’s hard to argue with taking a guy who seems to get the job done in big time playoff moments.
So Who Actually Wins?
I believe the Florida Panthers win this game. I don’t think it’s going to be easy, and I do think it’s going to be a very tight game (either a one goal win, or an empty netter late to make it 2). I lean towards the Panthers in this matchup for a lot of the reasons I outlined above. However, from a market perspective, this line is just priced incorrectly. The Panthers were favored in their first 3 home games of this series by an average price of -143. Now all of the sudden we see this line open at -115? It makes no sense from a market perspective, especially considering the fact that teams in this situation that the Panthers find themselves are 5-4. If that number showed some evidence that historically teams struggle in this spot, I could understand part of the adjustment. However, I believe the books know that the majority of the public is going to listen to everyone talk about Connor McDavid and the incredible Oilers comeback over the next 48 hours, and they are going to see a ton of money come in on Edmonton. Rather than take that money at +125 or so, they adjusted the price, knowing that would lead some pros to take Florida, and they could balance the money relatively equally. We will especially know if the public is on Edmonton if the line continues to trend towards a cheaper price for the Panthers. Because I believe that to be the case, I’m actually going to wait on this price to try to see if I can get it closer to -110 or -105 (maybe even money). But even if it stays at -115 or goes up to -120 I still like Florida in this spot, at a depressed price. We’re getting the better team, on their home ice. We’re getting the better goaltender. And we’re getting the best of a number. Give me the Panthers in this one at -120 or better, but as always shop around for the best price.
Official Pick: Florida Panthers ML (-120 or better)
Units: 1
WNBA Best Bet (Friday, 6/21/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 21, 2024 | 4:56 P.M. CST
Best Bet: Indiana Fever -2.5 (-110) vs. Atlanta Dream
Indiana is playing much better basketball than their season long record indicates. With all the hype surrounding Caitlin Clark, the Fever were put in an impossible situation having to play 9 games the first 16 days of the regular season. This comes on the heals of having less than one month of an off-season for a young, inexperienced Fever team. In the past couple weeks, the Fever have taken some significant steps forward. Part of this is due to their schedule easing up, and part of it has to do with the team improving and learning to play with each other. Aliyah Boston, who was quite possibly the worst player on the team over the first few weeks of the season, has finally played her way out of her slump. Additionally, Clark continues to improve her feel for the game as it slows down for her. She’s been significantly more efficient the past two weeks, compared to the first four weeks of the season. Add in Kelsey Mitchell playing at an All-Star level, and the Fever actually have quite a decent core. I believe they will continue to tick up going forward, and they will have a legitimate shot at a playoff birth.
On the other side, the Atlanta Dream have been hobbled by injuries over the course of the season, and they are still dealing with a few going into this game. That will definitely play a factor in this game. The Fever beat the Dream when the two played eight days ago in Indiana, 91-84. Despite the fact that Caitlin Clark had just 7 points on 3 of 11 shooting (and 7 TO’s), the Fever were still able to emerge victorious, largely due to Aliyah Boston (27 points, 13 boards). Assuming Clark doesn’t have a repeat of her worst game of the season, there’s a significant possibility Indiana actually runs away with this game tonight. When looking at the box score, not only did the Fever lead the entire game, but they won the first half by 15, while putting up a season high 59 points (in a single half). The game got closer than it really was down the stretch, largely because Indiana didn’t have good guard play that night.
I believe we see a repeat of the game between these two last week. Yes that game was at home, and the Fever are now traveling to Atlanta. However, Indiana is playing significantly better overall, regardless of location. And the Dream are too banged up to hang with this fast paced offense. I see the Fever having their way on the offensive end, and they will find ways to get enough stops to win this one comfortably. I like the Fever to win this game by double digits, so let’s lay the 2.5 with Indiana.
Official Pick: Indiana Fever -2.5 vs. Atlanta Dream
Units: 1
Author: Dylan Lieck | May 21, 2024 | 5:54 P.M. CST
Best Bets:
Pacers 1st Half Team Total OVER 54.5 (-110)
Celtics 1st Half Team Total OVER 59.5 (-115)
Summary:
On my official releases AND my personal smaller plays, I’ve hit 8 in a row on these 1st half team total overs in the first half so far in the playoffs. Essentially, the oddsmakers have been slow to catch on to these teams scoring MORE in the first half than they do in the second half. In the series against the Heat in Round 1, the oddsmakers eventually did adjust and we saw larger totals in the first half for the team totals than we did in the second half, which is very abnormal for NBA games. However, it was clear that the Celtics had trouble scoring in the 4th quarter and often they were up so much that it really didn’t matter. Although in this game we do see a higher total in the first half than in the second half, it’s only a difference of 3.5 points (1st half total is 113.5 and game total is 223.5). Also the number overall just feels very short.
This series sets up for a very high pace. I have a very good feeling that by games 3 & 4 the totals we are currently seeing are going to be significantly higher. We’ve seen that with the Pacers in EVERY series so far. And there’s no reason to think it will change here. In fact it might be more dramatic in this series, because this Celtics team is better equipped to exploit the Pacers horrific defense than any of their previous opponents. This Celtics team is extremely high powered offensively, and they are very balanced. Any of their starters (when Porzingis is healthy) have the ability to go for 20+ on a given night. Even with Horford, we have 4 prolific scorers, and one guy who can knock down catch & shoot threes. So I see the Celtics having tons of offensive success here.
On the other side I think Porzingis being out is HUGE concern for the Celtics defensively. We saw it in the Cavs series, where they were able to get Horford switched onto Donavan Mitchell on ball screens, and Mitchell absloutely torched him. Draymond Green brought this up when filling in on TNT one night and even asked Jason Tatum about it. Joe Mazzulla is the last guy you want having to make adjustments, because he just refuses to do so. Therefore, if I’m right and the Pacers ARE able to exploit Horford, I don’t believe we are going to see the Celtics do anything different to combat it. MAYBE we do as the series goes on, assuming the Pacers do have success with that. But in a one game sample, he’s shown a lack of ability to adjust in his short coaching career. I have enough concerns with Horford having to guard Myles Turner or Pascal Siakam 1v1 in his actual matchup. If the Pacers abuse the ball screen with Haliburton, McConnell, and Nembhardt, we could see a massive offensive night (and series) from the Pacers. They are so bad defensively that I don’t think they can win this series. In fact, I believe the Celtics will win in 5 games. But I do think they will have offensive success, at least early in the series.
Now, we could just play the first half total over, and we will probably be okay. However, I’m a bit worried that one of two things could happen. One is the Celtics have been off for an extended period of time. They have not showed any signs of slowing down after long rest so far, but I am always hesitant with this Celtics team specifically, since they are so reliant on threes. Secondly, the Pacers do tend to have some stinkers in the first half of road games at times in the playoffs. I estimate a very low probability that BOTH will happen, therefore I believe taking both will give us a decent shot at hitting both plays. And worst case scenario we win one, lose one, and we lose just a small amount of juice. Therefore, I think it’s worth it to take BOTH of their team totals over. It’s lower risk, higher reward in my opinion.
Therefore, let’s take both team totals over for 1 unit each
Official Picks: Pacers Team Total OVER 54.5 (-110) = 1 Unit + Celtics Team Total OVER 59.5 (-115) = 1 Unit
NBA Future Bet (NBA Champion)
Author: Dylan Lieck | May 9, 2024 | 7:38 P.M. CST
Official Best Bet: Boston Celtics to win NBA Title -115
At the beginning of the playoffs, the Celtics were the betting favorite to win the NBA Title at around +140, and at seemed at that point to be a pretty wild price. After all the Celtics lost in the Eastern Conference Finals to the 8-seed Miami Heat last year. Over the past decade, the Boston Celtics have reached the NBA Finals just one time, falling to the Golden State Warriors in 2022. Questions about the Celtics ability to win in the playoffs were, and still are absolutely valid. Joe Mazzulla has looked far from an elite NBA head coach. Jason Tatum continued to prove he was not “that guy” in big time moments. And under this core, there’s been nothing but post-season disappointment.
Sometimes, however, the way the dominoes fall creates opportunity, and that is exactly what has happened for the Boston Celtics this post-season. The team everyone thought would be the biggest contender with the Celtics in the Eastern Conference saw their top two players hobbled by injury in the Milwaukee Bucks. Although Dame Lillard played in 4 of the 6 games in the 1st round series, Giannis did not play a single minute. And, the result was the Bucks were eliminated by an inferior Indiana Pacers team. The next best contender from Championship aspirations got knocked out in the first round as well in the Philadelphia 76ers. Yes the Sixers were the 7-seed and required a play-in victory to even get into the post-season. But, that was largely due to the absence of Embiid down the stretch of the regular season due to a knee injury. With Embiid in the lineup, Philadelphia was 31-8 going into the playoffs. Despite not being 100%, Embiid fought through the first round series to play in every single game. Unfortunately for Sixers fans, it was not enough as the New York Knicks knocked off the Sixers in 6 games. And that leads us to the third contender to the Celtics in the East; those same New York Knicks. Yes, the Knicks still have their top player healthy in Jalen Brunson (who leads the league in playoff scoring by a wide margin). However, the Knicks injuries as a whole continue to pile up. Going into this Eastern Conference Semi-Finals matchup with the Pacers, the Knicks had already lost Julius Randle and Bojan Bogdanovic for the season. They then suffered an additional blow when it was announced that their backup big man, Mitchell Robinson, suffered a season ending injury as well. They followed that up by losing O.G. Anunoby in game 2. The Knicks are literally down to a 6-man rotation, despite having a 2-0 lead over Indiana.
Thus regardless of who comes out of that series, I believe it’s fair to say that none of those teams have a legitimate shot at beating the Celtics in a 7 game series in the East. There is no 2023 Miami Heat team this year; a team playing way above their regular season level, that could potentially pull off a massive upset. All that said then, we look at the West, and we see a similar thing occurring in the thinning of the heard. The Nuggets have looked far from their championship form, going down 0-2 to the Minnesota T-Wolves. At this point it would be shocking to see them even extend this series to a 7th game, let alone win the series outright. The Clippers were the team I thought at their absolute peak would be the second best option in the west, but Kawhi Leonard de-railed that possibility real quick. The Mavs have possibly the best PLAYER in the West (other than Nikola Jokic), in Luka Doncic. And of course, he is hobbled by a knee injury that clearly has slowed him down in the post-season. So we’re left with the T-Wolves and the Thunder. Both teams playing phenomenal basketball, but very young at their core. The T-Wolves go-to player is just 22 years old, and they’ve got a number of pieces around him that are young as well. The Thunder are almost exclusively guys under the ages of 25. In fact, the only guy on either team who is legitimately in the rotation who has even been to a conference finals is Mike Connelly of the T-Wolves. Most of the young guys on both these teams are playing in the second round for the first time in their careers.
So what does that mean? Well it means Boston is almost certainly coming out of the East. And it means we are almost certainly going to get the Thunder or the T-Wolves as their opponent (with a small chance of the Dallas Mavericks). Regardless of which of those teams wins the West, the Celtics will 100% be at least a -200 favorite against ANY of those teams. In fact, if it’s the Thunder they would likely be closer to -300. And so, with that in mind, we’re getting -115 right now to win the whole thing? It’s a price we can’t pass up given all the injuries, and all the things that have happened so far this post-season.
OFFICIAL PICK: BOSTON CELTICS TO WIN THE NBA CHAMPIONSHIP (-115)
Units: 2 @ -115 odds (2.3 to win 2.0)
NBA Playoffs Round 2 Series Best Bet
Author: Dylan Lieck | May 5th, 2024 | 2:21 A.M. CST
Best Bet
Dallas Mavericks to Win Series +115 over OKC Thunder
The Mavericks come into this series off a big game 6 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers. Although the Clippers were without Kawhi Leonard for 4 of the 6 games in the series, it was still an impressive showing from the Mavs. They came into the series as a very small favorite (-115 to win series) & that was the price after it was already released that Kawhi was likely going to miss game 1. After dropping game 1 due to a terrible 1st half, the Mavs bounced back stealing game 2 on the Clippers home floor. In fact, this was the lone single digit win by the Mavs in this series (96-93). The Mavs trailed by 1 going into the 4th quarter, but outscored the Clips by 4 in the final period.
Following that win in game 2, Dallas dominated game 3 at home. They followed that up with a very poor performance early in game 4. However, despite getting down by as many as 30+ points, Dallas was able to fight back and actually take the lead in the final 2 minutes of the game. It took a couple of incredibly tough shots from Paul George and James Harden down the stretch just to keep the Clips alive in the series. The next two games were never close, as the Mavs basically led from start to finish. Thus, this series easily could’ve been over in 5 if Dallas could’ve closed out game 4.
The Thunder come into this series riding high with confidence after sweeping the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round, despite the fact that many felt the Pelicans had a shot to win the series if healthy. Fortunately for the Thunder, though, the Pel’s best player (Zion Williamson) was injured late in their first play-in game and did not play a single minute in round 1. The Pels were already an inferior team, and taking Zion away made this nearly impossible for New Orleans to win this series. Moreover, despite the Thunder winning games 2 and 3 relatively handedly, games 1 and 4 were a different story. In game 1, OKC trailed by 2 with under 2 minutes to go, and the Pelicans had the ball. The Thunder escaped with a 2 point victory as CJ McCollum missed a three at the buzzer that would’ve lifted New Orleans to a win. Game 4 was similar as the Pels led late in the game, before falling apart in the final 4 minutes.
Not only did the Thunder strongly benefit from the Pelicans missing their best player, but they also benefited from a couple of very fortunate breaks. Despite having one of the worst shot qualities of any winning team in round 1, the Thunder were able to shoot a high percentage in this series. Without a doubt, they are due for regression, it just wasn’t going to happen against a banged up, less talented team. This Mavs team is a different animal. They’ve been playing GREAT defense since the playoffs began. The Mavs are also a much tougher matchup for the Thunder. Willie Green inexplicably went to Jonas Valencunis for the majority of their big man minutes. His lack of athleticism made it really tough for the Pelicans to defend a Thunder team that has bigs who can stretch you out. They won’t be able to do that as easily to Derrick L.ively or Daniel Gafford.
If the Mavericks had home court advantage and no injuries in this series I would project them a 70% chance to win the series. Although I have downgraded for those two reasons (OKC has homecourt, and the Mavs lost Maxi Klieber), I still project the Mavericks to win the series 63% of the time, which means we are getting over 15% of value on this bet. I think with the reasons above, as well as the Mav’s experience advantage (Kyrie - NBA Champ, Luka - reached WC Finals). I love how Kyrie’s playing as well. Luka is a little banged up, but he’s going to have an extra 3 days to rest to get that knee feeling better. In all honesty Luka didn’t even play all that well for a large portion of that series against the Clips, so I expect a big bounce back for Doncic here in Round 2. So let’s take the Mavs and take that extra 15%, thank you very much.
Official Pick: Dallas Mavericks to WIN series over OKC Thunder (+115)
1 Unit
NBA Playoffs Best Bet (2/2/2024)
Author: Dylan Lieck | May 2, 2024 | 4:15 P.M. CST
Best Bet:
We’re going back to the well here with the Pacers Team Total OVER 55.5 in the first half. You can get it at reduced juice (-105) on Bovada right now. The juice has been moving all over the place so if you see it at -115 or -110, just wait and you should be able to get it to move to -105 and get a better price. Regardless I like the Pacers to bounce back in this spot in a big way.
They have essentially flip flopped in terms of three point shooting every game this series. Games 1, 3, & 5 they shot a piss poor percentage. Games 2 & 4 they shot over 40% and over 50% respectively. This is a team that is very high powered offensively and they tend to bounce back after a bad shooting night. Additionally, they are just much better at home. I talked about how often they went over this number in general last time we played them over the total (game 2). Additionally, if you look at the two home games in this series, the Pacers dropped 67 points in each home game in the first halves. The pace is up significantly at home, they play with more confidence, and they tend to shoot the ball better.
Additionally, I like that Dame Lillard is back for this game. Who knows what level of health he is at, but even if he’s close to 100% I think his presence bodes well for this team total for the Pacers. Lillard being ruled in means he’s going to play significant minutes, barring additional injury. Lillard is a below average defender. That also means less minutes for Patrick Beverly, who is still a very good defender. It lends itself to more points for sure, as well as a faster paced game.
Even if the Pacers don’t have a great shooting night (which I doubt) I still think they have a great chance to go over this number. So we’re riding with Indiana in the first half tonight. Take the Pacers Team Total OVER 55.5. Remember get the best number and find reduced juice because it’s out there.
Official Pick: Pacers Team Total OVER 55.5 (-105)
2 Units
NBA Playoffs Best Bet (4/25/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 25, 2024 | 2:09 P.M. CST
Best Bet for Tonight:
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -2 (1st Quarter) vs. New York Knicks (-105)
If you’ve noticed the bets during the playoffs, we’ve tended to stay away from straight spreads and totals and instead look to derivative markets, because the lines at this time of year are very sharp and well priced, that it can be difficult to get in at a good number. In the regular season, I would probably never look to a 1st quarter bet because they can be unpredictable, however I think we have a distinct edge looking at the 1st quarter in this matchup.
I think it’s pretty clear to anyone who has watched this series that the 76ers are a few plays away from being up 2-0 in this series. The first game, Phili led for the majority of the first three quarters before squandering the lead late in the game. That game still came down to the final few possessions, and it took Josh Hart making THREE triples in the fourth quarter for the Knicks to win (keep in mind Hart had been so bad from 3 lately that they were just leaving him wide open all night). Game two was even more disturbing if you are a Sixers fan, as they squandered a 5 point lead with under 30 seconds to play, and lost in regulation by 3. Thus, the Sixers come back home Thursday night down 0-2 in the series. All that said, I think it’s fair to say that the Sixers got quite unlucky with how games 1 & 2 played out. At the very least they deserved a split. Unfortunately for Phili, they ARE down 0-2, and for all intents & purposes this is a must win game for them. If the Sixers lose Thursday night, they might as well shut Embiid down and let Nick Nurse book his vacation to Cabo.
With all that in mind you have to believe the Sixers are going to come out focused on Thursday night in front of their home crowd. Not only is it a must win game, but it’s also their first home playoff game, and Philadelphia will be rocking. Every Sixers fan believes they can still win the series & we’re going to hear them on Thursday night. As I mentioned already, the Sixers are also coming off a devestating loss in their previous outing. For some teams you might think there could be a bit of a hangover effect, but I think this Sixers team is pretty mentally tough. You could hear it in both Maxey & Embiid’s voices after Game 2; they are itching to get back out there. So from a motivational & situational perspective I really like the Sixers to get a lead early.
Then you look at how the first two games in this series played out and you see that Philadelphia absolutely dominated the Knicks early on. They won the first quarters by 9 and 7 points, and those were both road games. And, the truth of the matter is that this is just a tough matchup for the Knicks. The length of Phili’s wings who have been guarding Brunson are really giving him trouble, as he’s shooting under 30% on the series from the floor and from beyond the arc. I don’t see that changing in this game. I think Phili is going to come out mad and focused and they will jump all over the Knicks the same way they did in the first two games in New York. So let’s go with the 76ers in the first quarter -2
Official Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -2 (1st Quarter), -105
Units: 1
NBA Playoffs Best Bet (4/23/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 23, 2024 | 5:35 P.M. CST
Best Bet In Pacers/Bucks Game:
So we’re going to look to the Pacers Team Total in the first half here. They went way under their season average in the first half against the Bucks in Game 1, so we’re expecting a bounce back here. The Pacers are the best offensive team in the league, and the Bucks have really struggled on the defensive end this season, and that includes most of the year WITH Giannis. I’m pretty certain Giannis is not going to play in game 2, and we’ve seen no indications up to this point to make us think otherwise. So just from a matchup perspective I like this one.
Then we look at Indiana’s last 20 games offensively in the first half of games. 15 of their last 20 they’ve gone over this total of 54.5 in the first half. Two of the five games that they failed to go over this total, they scored 54. So really we only have 3 games in which the Pacers were not all that close to reaching 55. Additionally in that span of their last 20 games, 11 of those games came on the road (and they play on the road tonight). In the 11 games they played on the road, they went over that total 9 times. One they didn’t, they still scored 53 (2 points shy) and the other came against one of the slowest pace teams in the league in the Orlando Magic (47 points in the first half). So we have a team that usually goes over this number, and goes over it on the road at an even higher pace than they do at home (at least in their recent games). In those 20 games they’re scoring an average of 63 PPG in the first half, which is 8 points over what we need here. Additionally, they are scoring 64 points per game in the first half on the road in that same span, so we’re gaining an additional point per game in road trips.
Lastly for this total, I do think the Pacers had issues with nerves early on. They shot an incredibly low percentage in the first half, and I do believe that is correlated with the fact that they have a lot of guys who are young and who have very little (or no) playoff experience. We saw them start to settle in during the second half offensively and play much better. Additionally, I would be concerned as a Pacers fan if they struggled against the Bucks in the regular season. If that were the case, you could make the argument this is just a bad matchup for the Pacers. However, that’s not the case. The Pacers actually beat the Bucks 4 of their 5 matchups during the regular season. Additionally, the Pacers went OVER this first half total in ALL 5 of their matchups with the Bucks in the regular season, averaging just under 63 PPG in the first half in those games.
So we’re going to go with ONE UNIT on the Pacers in the first half to go OVER their team total of 54.5. Now I want to add one thing. One thing I noticed in researching this game and this bet was that in those 5 games during their last 20 that the Pacers FAILED to eclipse 55 points, ALL 5 times they came back in the 3rd quarter and scored AT LEAST 29 points. Because of that I’m going to add a second bet CONTINGENT ON us NOT going over in the first half. If the Pacers fail to go over 54.5 points in the first half, then we are going to come back and take the Pacers to go OVER their 3rd quarter live total ONLY if it is 29 points or less (which I believe it will be). Even in game 1 when the Pacers failed to go over their first half total of 54.5 they still scored 29 on Milwaukee in the 3rd quarter.
So, in recap, we are going to go with ONE UNIT on the Pacers OVER 54.5 points in the first half. If they DO go over that number, then we’re done and we take our 1 unit profit. If they FAIL to go over that number and we LOSE the first half bet, then we’re going to take the Pacers OVER their 3rd quarter total ONLY if the number is 29 points or less. I believe we are going to see right at 28.5 which is fine. That said, if this number opens 29.5 do NOT take it. Just take the one unit loss and we will bounce back with our next couple bets. I believe we will win the first half bet easily, and I believe that they will go over their 3rd quarter total easily if we don’t win it. However, I don’t want anyone taking a bad number, and 29 is the key number for us in the 3rd quarter. That’s the exact number they’ve gotten to every time they have a low scoring first half. We’re not going to chase if we see 29.5 or 30. So that’s my best bet for the night. Best of luck and enjoy the game!!
OFFICIAL PICK: Pacers Team Total OVER 54.5 (1 Unit)
If it wins, we’re done
If it loses, we’re taking Pacers OVER Team Total in the 3rd quarter, provided the number is 29 or LESS (1 Unit)
NBA Player Prop Best Bet Nuggets vs. Lakers (4/22/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 22, 2024 | 6:47 P.M. CST
I’m irritated I didn’t give out my early game play. I liked the Cavs in the first quarter against the Magic but decided not to give it out on the website. They won the first quarter comfortably. That said, here is my favorite bet of the night. It’s a player prop in the late game (Lakers/Nuggets)
Best Bet:
DeAngelo Russell OVER 16.5 Points (-114)
This line actually opened at 15.5. It got bet up from -110 all the way to -140. Then it finally flipped to 16.5 points. I don’t think the extra point matters. I’d actually prefer to have it at 16.5 with relatively low juice, compared to laying -130 or -140 at just a point less. Regardless, I think this is a fantastic play. Russell has had his struggles in the playoffs, especially against the Nuggets, and I’m not going to sit here and argue that he hasn’t. However, I trust numbers. And the numbers show that his volume is extremely high on this team; and, they show that he’s never had as good of a season (over the course of a full 82 games) as this one. Over the course of the 23-24 regular season, D-Lo shot a career high in terms of 3-point percentage. He went 1-9 in that first game against Denver. That’s not going to continue at that low of a rate. Especially because a lot of his looks were open shots. It’s not as if Denver is keying in on him. Those same shots are going to be there in game 2. Plus he will have an extra two days to adjust to the altitude.
I also especially like this because Russell took 20 shots in game 1. While I’m not sure he gets THAT volume game 2, it’s going to be in that realm (14-17 shots). And when you look at the rest of the Lakers role players, NOBODY has stepped up in the post-season. Ruri Hatchimora & Austin Reeves have both been absolute shells of themselves compared to last year in the playoffs. Gabe Vincent has been a complete non-factor. And Taurean Waller Prince is playing sparing minutes. So A lot of those shots that may normally go to those guys, are likely going to D-Lo. I think this is purely an efficiency issue. If D-Lo shoots remotely close (33%) to his season average from three, he goes over this easy.
OFFICIAL PICK: DeAngelo Russell OVER 16.5 Points
Units: 2
NBA 1st Round, Game 1 Best Bets (4/20/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 20, 2024 | 10:11 A.M. CST
Happy birthday Bob Marley! In his honor, here are my best plays for day one of the NBA Playoffs. We’ve got a loaded slate, with a quadruple header today and tomorrow. Enjoy the game and tail responsibly!
Best Bets:
1) Cavs -4.5 vs. Magic (2U):
The Magic have not beaten anyone with a pulse this season. They’ve thrived on beating the bottom feeders. This Cavs team isn’t incredible by any means, but they are the better of these two teams, and they have the best player on the floor in Donavan Mitchell. They also have the playoff experience that the Magic lack. This will be basically the first playoff game for almost everyone on this Magic team. The Cavs have Mitchell, Niang, & Struss, all with significant experience in the post season; and, those on the team who don’t have a TON of experience in this situation, still played in a tough series against the New York Knicks last season. Additionally, the Cavs have been a top 10 defense all year, however they struggled down the stretch due to injuries. They are definitely healthy at this point, but even if their struggles continue for the first few games, the place they have the most trouble is defending the three point line. The Magic are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, at just over 35%. So I don’t see them exploiting the Cavs weaknesses here. There’s a reason this series price is -200 for the Cavs, one of the highest favorites on the board. And we’re laying a relatively short number in game 1 at home. We’ll take the Cavs here and expect a low scoring output from the Magic. I thought about taking this game first half due to the fact that the Magic are going to likely come out with some nerves. But I just think there’s very little chance Cleveland loses this outright. So just in case, let’s take full game, although 1H would be a good play too.
OFFICIAL PICK: Cavs -4.5
2) Knicks -3 vs. 76ers (2U)
All the Knicks have heard for a week is how vulnerable they are as a #2 seed and how they have no shot to go deep in the playoffs after losing Randle. I think talking heads are forgetting how terrible Julius Randle has performed in the playoffs with New York (or with anyone for that matter). He’s just been AWFUL. The addition of Divincinzo has been massive for the Knicks, as they actually have another consistent scoring option in the backcourt (who can also SHOOT the ball). The 76ers on the other hand, were very fortunate to get out of that first play in game against the Heat, trailing for the entire game til the fourth quarter. It took a crazy effort from Nicholas Batum to get the Sixers to the 7 seed. Additionally, the thing that the 76ers really struggled with in that game was the Heat defense. They went zone for stretches and gave them absolute fits. The Sixers don’t have the defense to keep up with a team who can score if they go in long droughts. The Knicks are the best defensive team in the NBA. I just think this is a bad matchup for the 76ers. I also strongly question the health of Embiid. He did not look close to 100% in that play-in game. Yes, he will still be effective, but the Knicks have some long, athletic bigs that could give him some trouble, the way Bam did in stretches. Plus the Knicks are coming in as the more rested team, and the Sixers played a very emotional up and down game in their last matchup, and now have to travel on the road. I got this at 3. It’s moved to 3.5 in most spots. Shop around and try to find the best number but we’re rolling with Brunsen and company, who I believe is the BEST player on the floor in this series with a hobbled Embiid.
OFFICIAL PICK: Knicks -3
3) T-Wolves -115 vs. Suns (1U)
The Suns have become a really trendy pick to beat the #3 seed T-Wolves in this series. I get the thought process, considering the regular season matchups between these two teams. The Suns were 3-0 SU against the T-Wolves, covering all 3 games and winning each by double digits. That includes a win over Minnesota the final game of the regular season in Minnesota, where the Suns absolutely DOMINATED the Wolves from start to finish to seal that 6 seed and lock up a re-match with that same Minnesota team. The series price for this one favors the Suns slightly, but I do think that is a bit of public money, as the Suns are the MOST public team in this first round. From a matchup perspective, it isn’t great for the Wolves. Why? Because they have Rudy Gobert, one of the NBA’s worst playoff performers. He causes multiple matchup issues for his own team due to his inability to guard the perimeter, switch, or play any sort of ball screen defense other than drop coverage. That said I think it’ll take Phoenix a game or two to adjust and start to really exploit it. We just have to win game one. And the thing is, Minnesota KNOWS they’ve got to get this first one to have a shot in this series. They cannot drop game 1 at home, knowing they have been dominated by this team all year. They are going to be ultra focused on this one. Lay the moneyline and don’t mess with the points. I found a -115, but shop for the best number.
OFFICIAL PICK: T-Wolves -115
National Championship Best Bets (4/8/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 8, 2024 | 6:53 P.M. CST
Well we already have a nice little future on Tristen Newton at +550 to win the Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four. The first game he had a solid night, even though he didn’t shoot the ball all that well. He still finished the game with 12 points and most importantly 9 assists. That is really going to give him a shot in the title. I also like that the guy who had the best night for UConn in the semis was Stephon Castle. Castle is a freshman and it’s really tough for guys that young to perform consistently on this stage. Not to mention that he doesn’t play the minutes Newton does, nor does he have the ball in his hands as much as Newton. Clingan was pretty good, but not incredible, and that’s all we needed because the play all along was basically fading Clingan, knowing he was going up against Zach Edey in the Title. If you look at the odds right now, Newton is down to +500. If you happened to miss that future, I would strongly suggest taking it now, as there’s still a ton of value. This is absolutely mispriced, and with how even the performances were in game one, Newton is the most likely guy to have a big game tonight and win the award.
Best Bet For Tonight’s Game:
I posted this play on twitter already and gave it out in my breakdown video at the end. If you want to go check out my full game breakdown and see specifically why I like this pick, check out our channel on YouTube: @slobberknockersports
But the play I like is Purdue Team Total Under 70.5. Full disclosure when I gave that play out yesterday, the number was already trending down. It’s now 69.5 at most spots and I even saw some 68.5. Look I would take it as low as 68.5. I could even make a case at 67.5 but obviously try to get the best number. 69.5 or larger is a phenomenal bet. 68.5 is still solid. This number is way off with what we’ve seen from UConn’s defense in this tournament. They just held Bama, one of the fastest, highest scoring teams in the nation, to just 72 two nights ago. And most importantly of all is this pace is going to be very slow. Purdue is going to pound it inside to Edey, and UConn is going to play him straight up with Clingan. The game is going to very likely be played in the 63-68 possession range. Purdue would have to be extremely efficient against an amazing defense to get to this number. I see this lower scoring and I would be surprised if this is even close. Take Purdue Team Total UNDER 70.5 Play to 68.5.
Official Pick: PURDUE TEAM TOTAL UNDER 70.5
UNITS: 2
Best Bets For Final Four Games & Tournament Futures, Saturday (4/6/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 5, 2024 | 11:45 P.M. CST
Best Bet #1: NC State Team Total UNDER 68.5 (-110)
I think this is the best option for a bet on a team in either game in the two semi-finals games. Purdue has held opponents under this number in all 4 tournament games, and that includes games against two top 25 offenses in Tennessee (25th) and Gonzaga (5th). NC State has gone over the total 3 times in the tournament, however one game they did NOT go over in regulation; it took overtime against Oakland to get there. Additionally if you average out the two teams possessions so far in the tournament, this game is likely going to be played in the 65 range. If that holds true NC State would have to score over 1 point per possession to go over that total. With the matchup of Edey guarding DJ Burns (who is NC State’s highest usage player and most important offensive player) I don’t see NC State having a lot of success offensively over the course of a 40 minute game. I also like that Purdue is top 10 in the country in both ORB% and DRB% while NC State is outside the top 180 in both. That means more and longer possessions for Purdue and less time for NC State to score have possessions. NC State is also outside the top 180 in getting to the FT line and Purdue is top 10 in the country in sending opposing teams to the FT Line. So I don’t see NC State getting to this number. If you want a full breakdown check out our YouTube Channel: @slobberknockersports
Best Bet #2: Grant Nelson Over .5 three point field goals made (-171)
Overall I just like this one based on the matchup. I listened to Nate Oats’ press conference today and he talked about how Illinois was 0/19 at the rim against Donavan Clingan. He said that they definitely want to get rim shots but he also isn’t going to force against a shot blocker if he’s sitting at the rim. He discussed having to find ways to draw Clingan away from the basket to be able to get some three point shots. With that in mind, and considering that Bama already relies heavily on threes, I think Grant Nelson is our best bet to go above expectation from downtown in this game. He’s the only big man on Alabama who can really stretch Clingan away from the basket. If Pringle isn’t able to guard Clingan 1v1 it’s very unlikely Pringle is going to play significant minutes in this game. Nelson, on the other hand, I can see taking 4-5 threes in this game because of the matchup and because I think he’s going to play a TON of minutes as long as he doesn’t get in foul trouble. Even with the heavy juice, I like Nelson to go over 1 three here. Take him over half a three and lay the -171
Best Bet #3: Tristen Newton to win Most Outstanding Player +550
This number is just completely mispriced. Tristen Newton leads UCONN in scoring and assists, averaging over 15 and 6.5 per game. He’s also 2nd on the team in both rebounds and steals, and he’s had 3 triple doubles this season. 70% of Most Outstanding Player winners have been the leading scorer on their team throughout the season over the past 20 years. That includes last year’s UCONN team with Adama Sanogo. Guards traditionally dominate this tournament as well. The only true bigs to win the award in the past 15 years are Anthony Davis (Kentucky 2012) and last year Sanogo (UCONN 2023). Besides that it’s been all guards or wings. The two bigs for each top team (Edey and Clingan) are the two odds on favorites. UConn is going to be a 5 point favorite in that tile game AT LEAST. Probably closes closer to 6 or 6.5. If you believe UConn will win it’s going to be Clingan or Newton. Not only does Newton dominate statistically, but he also is going to play 38 minutes per game whereas Clingan will play 28-30. I’ll take that value ALL DAY
I wanted to get these things posted tonight before the end of the day so they will be up for a full day so I didn’t go in depth. Video breakdowns will be posted on YouTube by the end of the night tonight.
Women’s College Basketball Final Four Best Bet (4/5/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 5, 2024 | 7:47 P.M. CST
Best Bet: Iowa vs. UConn 1H UNDER 79
2 Units
UConn plays at an extremely slow pace compared to Iowa. I believe Geno (HC UConn) is going to really try to slow the game down, and where he tends to have success with gameplans is early on in games.
Iowa has had games this year where teams have tried to slow it down and had success and those teams have all been significantly worse than UConn defensively. The most notable was in the 2nd round against West Virginia, a game that didn’t sniff the total posted for this game
I do believe Iowa is going to find a way to win this game, and I think over the course of 40 minutes the Hawkeyes will be able to outscore UConn, who can go through offensive droughts at times. However, it’s not going to be a blowout either way, and a competitive game early only happens if this is a lower scoring game
Overall this game is likely not going to go over that total in the 160s, however, I don’t want to have to deal with fouls late in the game if it’s slightly over the total I expect. I also think you have two teams who will show some nerves early on and I believe it’s going to be a lower scoring first quarter.
Official Pick: Iowa/UCONN 1st Half UNDER 79 Points (-110)
NBA Best Bet (Wednesday, 4/3/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 3, 2024 | 7:01 P.M. CST
I haven’t done much NBA this year, but with college basketball coming to a close, we’re going to look to exploit some different markets over the next couple months until football season starts back up again. I have traditionally had success in the NBA playoffs and late in the season being SELECTIVE. Playing a ton of NBA games and sides can get dicey, and it’s difficult to navigate some of the regular season with the lack of motivation for teams some nights. However, at this point we know who’s tanking, who’s competing, and which teams have internal issues. Thus, this is usually the time I start really looking into NBA games. Anyways, here is is my best bet for tonight’s NBA games. Sorry for the late post, but I’m looking towards the late game.
Best Bet: Phoenix Suns Team Total OVER 115.5 (-110)
2 Units
This is a huge game for the Suns in the grand scheme of their season, as they are in a three way tie (in the loss column) for the final actual playoff spot, meaning avoiding the play-in spot. Obviously having to play to get into the playoffs in a one-off game is something you want to avoid. Thus, this is a definite focus spot for the Suns. We also have an advantage here in the matchups tonight, as Isaac Okoro, the best perimeter defender for the Cavs has been battling an injury recently and will NOT suit up tonight. That’s a big loss for the Cavs. Through the first few months of the season, Cleveland was the best defense in the NBA, however they have fallen off a cliff recently. Part of it has to do with injuries, but also some negative regression. If you look at their last 5 games especially, teams have been absolutely TORCHING this defense from beyond the arc. The past 5 opponents have had 16, 21, 16, 13, and 15 made threes. Additionally all 5 teams have shot 40% or better (rounded up) from three, including a 64% night from the Nuggets, a game they nailed 21 triples. The Suns are going to have a big game from three. Greyson Allen is not going to suit up, but Royce O’Neal is a formidable replacement. And, with KD and Booker they won’t feel the loss of Allen much in this game.
We’ve seen some sharp money on the full game total here. And I don’t disagree with it, but with Donovan Mitchell playing with a broken nose (having to wear a mask), plus the loss of Okoro, and this Cavs team coming off a game last night, I’m worried the Cavs may not score enough to push this game over 226.5. I think it probably goes over, but I think the safer bet is looking at the Suns TT over. So that’s where we are going for tonight’s best bet. Best of luck and check back tomorrow. I will try to get my picks out by 5 P.M. from now on.
OFFICIAL BEST BET: Phoenix Suns Team Total OVER 115.5 (-110)
Elite 8 Best Bets (3/30/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 30, 2024 | 11:10 A.M. CST
Below are my best bets for the Elite 8 matchups!!
Elite 8 Best Bets:
Alabama -3 vs. Clemson (2 Units)
Purdue -3.5 vs. Tennessee (2 Units)
NC State ML (+255) vs. Duke (1 Unit)