College Basketball Best Bets (11/27/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 27, 2024 | 2:01 P.M. CST

Current Record = 10-0 (+20.0 units)

Best Bet #1: Memphis Tigers +9.5 vs. #4 Auburn Tigers

Tigers vs. Tigers in the Maui Invitational Championship game this evening. And yup, you guessed it, we’re backing the Tigers in this one. The Memphis tigers, that is. The Maui Invitational 2024 edition has quite possibly been the most entertaining tournament I’ve seen in it’s entirety in a long time in college basketball. It’s felt like every single game has come down to the wire, which is partially why I’m going to lean to the dog here. The first round was full of crazy comebacks including Memphis blowing a 13 point lead against UCONN in the first round in the final 3 and a half minutes. The Tigers actually got down 4 in OT, but they were able to battle back and find a way to win that game and advance to the semis. I was very impressed with Memphis’ mental toughness in that game. Blowing a lead like that and letting a HUGE upset win over the #2 ranked UCONN Huskies is not easy to overcome. Once UCONN took a 4 point lead in the OT period, it would’ve been very easy for Memphis to lay down, but they didn’t. They fought back and pulled out a win. That was impressive

It was also impressive that the Tigers opened as a 1.5 point favorite against Michigan State in the semis, and SIGNIFICANT professional money came in AGAINST Memphis, pushing the line 4 full points to MSU -2.5 at close. Despite the market love for the Spartans, Memphis handled Sparty from start to finish. They took an early lead, and never really let Michigan State into the game all day long.

On the other hand Auburn was lucky to even get through the first round, after trailing by 18 points to a very good Iowa State team early in the second half. The Tigers found a way to pull themselves off the matte and tie the game with under a minute to go. A tip in by Jonahi Broome with 2 seconds left gave Auburn the win. They followed that up with a much less stressful win over North Carolina, 85-72. It was impressive how the Tigers were able to easily handle a talented Tarheels team. However, that UNC team had no business being in the semifinals. They were getting dominated by a subpar Dayton team in the first round, and if it weren’t for a 20+ free throw attempt disparity, they never even would’ve got the game to single digits. The officials kept North Carolina in the game to set up the big “marquee” matchup with Auburn in round 2, but it turned out to be the worst game of the tourney. And, that’s not a mistake, as I believe UNC might be the worst team in this tournament. It’s between them and Colorado who has looked really good after a big upset of UCONN last night.

Overall I just think this is too many points. I believe oddsmakers are taking into account the fact that Auburn beat Iowa State and then was able to handle a supposed top 15 team in UNC. But the reality is that UNC is a borderline top 25 team, and Auburn was fortunate to beat Iowa State at all. Memphis has looked like the much more consistent team in this tourney. I also think that this line is taking into account the fact that Memphis is not a very deep team. And, when playing a 3rd game in 3 days that should come into affect (according to oddsmakers). But I disagree. I’ve seen plenty of teams with not deep rosters come into this tournament and win the entire thing outright. I can remember back to 2010 when Kemba Walker literally won the tournament by himself. I can remember a Gonzaga team a couple years back winning it all with very little depth. I believe this early in the season, a lack of depth and a belief that legs will give out is not a good assumption. These are well trained athletes at the peak of their physical performance and there’s not really a progressive fatigue aspect to account for yet this year.

For all these reasons, as well as the fact that I just think this number is way too high (I made this Auburn -5) we’re going to back Memphis catching the 9.5. It’s just simply too many points to catch in a championship game, when the Memphis Tigers have that much talent on their roster. Let’s go MEMPHIS plus the points, and believe me when I say, they are a LIVE DOG HERE! Go Tigers!

Official Play: Memphis +9.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

Best Bet #2: UCONN Huskies vs. Dayton Flyers OVER 146.5

Nobody would’ve believed you if you said the #2 ranked UCONN Huskies, who have won back-to-back National Titles under Head Coach Dan Hurley, would be playing in the 7th place game in the Maui Invitational. It’s shocking from the standpoint that this is the highest ranking we’ve seen the Huskies carry into the pre-season. However, it’s not shocking when you look at all the pieces UCONN lost from last year’s team. An absurd FOUR starters were drafted in the 2024 NBA Draft who played on last year’s National Title Team. Stephon Castle and Donavan Clingan were drafted in the TOP TEN in the NBA Draft, while Cam Spencer and Triston Newton were both taken in the second round. The only starter from last year’s squad to return this year is Alex Karaban. And, while Karaban is a very good player, he’s not used to being option number 1 or even number 2.

Now all that said, the one important point to make here, goes hand-in-hand with why I like the over in this spot. What made that UCONN team so special last season was their incredible ability to defend at a high level. I mean that team was ELITE defensively, and they only got better in big moments. Even Zach Edey, who nobody could stop, struggled mightily in that National Title game until late when they allowed him to get some easy buckets. But, that area (defensively) is where we’ve seen the biggest drop off from UCONN year-over-year. In fact, offensively the first two games of the Maui Invitational, they really have looked great. Against Colorado in Round 2 they shot 48% from the field & 39% from three, making 12 triples in the game. In the first round against Memphis they were even better, shooting 49% from the field & 47% from three, while knocking down 14 triples in that contest. The issue is that the Huskies allowed BOTH unranked Colorado and unranked Memphis to each shoot OVER 50% from the field and OVER 50% from the 3-point line. Those are ABSURD numbers for this program’s expectations. Most importantly, though, is the fact that COLORADO did that to UCONN. Not to say a two-game sample size is relevant, but the way Dan Hurley operates, I felt that if UCONN’s defensive woes against Memphis were fixable in the short-run, we’d have seen some major adjustments to their scheme. But that wasn’t the case whatsoever. In fact, Colorado actually shot BETTER than Memphis did and was more efficient. Now the pace of the game was slower, but they still struggled to get stops. My overall point being, I don’t see how this UCONN team (from what I’ve seen this season) is going to have any better of an effort here.

Also keep in mind, this is a program that has won back-to-back National Titles, and they have lost a total of ONE non-conference game in the past 2 seasons. They are held to an extremely high standard. I bring that up to say, I don’t believe UCONN just lays over here and we get a lackluster performance. I think we see them play well offensively, and at least give effort throughout the game. And since I don’t think their defensive issues are immediately fixable, I think that’s a good recipe for an over.

Dayton on the other hand has played some really high scoring games. Game 1 of the Maui Invitational was a BEST BET WINNER for us as we went OVER the total in UNC/Dayton. We got there easily as the number was just 155, while there were a whopping 182 points scored in the game. Game 2, however, they played a much slower paced, much better defensive team, in Iowa State. The total on that game went FLYING OVER the 142.5, as the two teams combined for 175. That means in Dayton’s two games here in Maui, they’ve gone over their total by an average of 30 points. THIRTY POINTS. Now, I will say this: there is a reason this number is in the 140s and not higher. And that’s largely because Dayton plays a very methodical style offense with lots of motion. And, while they’re extremely efficient scoring the ball, they can take the air out of it at times. Additionally, while a team like UNC will push the pace, UCONN is much more adaptable to their opponent. The Huskies have always allowed their opponent to dictate tempo, and they’ve just been better at any style you want to play. So that’s the only thing that gives me pause here from making this a HUGE 3 or 4 star play. I decided to keep this a 2-star rating.

All that said, this number is short according to my metrics. I officially made this number 152.3 exactly (going by my power ratings) and we’re currently sitting at 146 or 146.5 depending on where you shop around. So we’re catching 6.3 points of value here, early in the season with two efficient offensive teams who also allow their opponents to shoot the ball at a high percentage. As long as we dodge a slow start from the two teams, given that it’s the final game of the tournament and they’re really playing for nothing, I think we should get there relatively sweat free. Although sweat-free tends to not exist in the gambling world. Nonetheless, best of luck, have a great Thanksgiving tomorrow, and enjoy cashing a nice total on the over in the final game of the great Maui Invitational.

Official Play: UCONN vs. Dayton OVER 146.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Basketball Best Bets (11/26/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 26, 2024 | 4:07 P.M. CST

Current Record = 8-0 (100%, +16.0 Units)

Best Bets:

1) Grand Canyon +1 vs. Stanford (2u)

2) Kansas +4.5 vs. Duke (2u)

No breakdowns today, but will be giving more soon! Best of luck!

College Basketball Best Bets (11/25/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 25, 2024 | 10:38 A.M. CST

Current Record = 5-0 (+10.0 Units)

Best Bets:

1. Liberty -1 vs. McNeese State = 2 Star

2. Iowa State +3.5 vs. Auburn = 2 Star

3. North Carolina vs. Dayton OVER 155 = 2-Star

NFL Monday Night Football Best Bet (11/25/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 25, 2024 | 10:30 A.M. CST

We’ve been catching our stride in the NFL the last couple weeks. We’ve climbed out of an early season hole, and we are climbing back towards that 55-60% range on the season. We will attempt to keep it going tonight. Best of luck in all your wagers.

Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers

The Baltimore Ravens travel to LA off a loss here for the 4th time this season. The Ravens are ELITE off a loss under John Harbaugh, especially off a division loss, which occurred in their most recent game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I really believe the Ravens will bounce back here, but they’ve got some key injuries to their defense that has kept me hesitant to back them minus the three. Roquan Smith (LB) is out. The Ravens are already thin at LB with star LB Kyle Hamilton to moving to Safety due to lack of depth at that position. That worries me considering those are their two best run defenders on the second level. The Chargers are extremely run heavy, and could very well attack that level of the field often in the short-intermediate pass game as well. All of that said, I think the Ravens are going to have a huge game offensively tonight. This offense has been HISTORICALLY GOOD before last week’s performance. And while it is a bit concerning in a copycat league, I don’t think the Steelers did anything all that new to the Ravens. It was a tough, road divisional game, and those performances happen. I would be shocked to not see the Ravens have a big offensive night here, coming off a 10-point outing.

With all that in mind, we’re going to look to a different market. We’re going to take the Ravens Team Total OVER 26.5 here. I’ve seen this juiced at -123 which is fine. Don’t take it above -130. I really see a big offensive performance coming here tonight. I wanted to back the Ravens -3 but with the defensive injuries I think we are better off going with this team total. There’s a chance they score 27+ and still lose. But there’s no shot they win the game scoring 21 points with their secondary and their defense in its current form. We used this type of wager on Friday night with UTSA over their team total and got there easily. Let’s go back to the well and go to the Ravens TT OVER 26.5

Official Play: Baltimore Ravens TEAM TOTAL OVER 26.5 (-123)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Football Best Bet Friday Night (11/22/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 22, 2024 | 4:40 P.M. CST

Best Bet Tonight: Temple @ UTSA

Tonight we’re going to look to UTSA in the exotics market. We’re going to look at their TEAM TOTAL over tonight. UTSA has been playing at a breakneck pace the last 7 games of the season, averaging 24.1 seconds per play (15th fastest in country). So they are going to be attempting to go as fast as possible. And that tempo is not just smoke and mirrors, as UTSA has been one of the best SCORING teams in the country in conference play as well. And, they’ve only gotten better and better in terms of offensive efficiency, as well as overall offensive output. In fact, the last 4 games they have put up 48, 44, 45, & 38. Additionally, they’ve been much better offensively at HOME, which is where they’re playing tonight. They are averaging 43.3 PPG in HOME CONFERENCE games this season, which is first in the conference. The lowest scoring output they’ve had in a home conference game was 38.

Additionally, they are going up against a Temple defense that is one of the worst in the country. They rank outside the top 100 in almost every meaningful metric: Schedule Adjusted Efficiency, EPA/Play Allowed, Success Rate, Havok created, and more. They are just horrific defensively. Now, they did play better defensively in their last game against FAU, but FAU was one of the worst offensive teams in the country, and they had given up on their coach, Tom Herman, who got fired at the conclusion of the game. Temple’s defense the last 3 road games gave up 52, 56, and 29 (45+ PPG).

Now I would normally look to UTSA here, but it’s just not in my nature to lay 17 points. Also I don’t trust the UTSA Defense. So by taking the TT Over, instead of laying the 17, even if Temple is able to score here, we can still get there. I think UTSA hangs 42+ as they are trying to get Bowl Eligible on senior night in San Antonio. Give me the RUNNERS to go OVER the 35

Official Play: UTSA TEAM TOTAL OVER 35

Play Rating: 2-Star

NFL Best Bets Week 10 (11/17/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 16, 2024 | 11:41 P.M. CST

NFL Best Bets Week 10:

Best Bet No. 1 (Side of the Week):

Cleveland Browns +1 @ New Orleans Saints (2-Star)

Best Bet No. 2 (Teaser of the Week):

Texans -1 | Chiefs +8.5

Best Bet No. 3 (Teaser of the Week 2):

Dolphins -1 | Bengals +8.5

Play Ratings: All Plays 2-Stars

Best Bet No. 4 (Side of the Week 2):

Denver Broncos -2 vs. Atlanta Falcons

College Basketball Best Bets (11/17/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 16, 2024 | 11:54 A.M. CST

Official Record = 1-0 (+2.0u)

Best Bet Tonight:

1) Indiana -8 vs. South Carolina (2us)

2) Ole Miss -4.5 vs. Colorado State (2us)

3) Oakland +27.5 vs. Kansas (2us)

4) Nevada -8 vs. Santa Clara (2us)

Slob Pod Pick ‘Em Show Best Bets College Football Week 12 (11/16/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 16, 2024 | 4:34 A.M. CST

Slob Pod Pick Em Show Best Bets:

Dylan’s Top 4 Best Bets (23-11, +21.8u)

1) Kansas +3 @ BYU

2) Florida +4.5 vs. LSU

3) Clemson -10 @ Pittsburgh

4) Baylor @ West Virginia OVER 58.5

Uncle T’s Moneyline Dog of the Week (4-4 ATS, 3-5 ML, +2.1u)

Syracuse +290 | +9 over Cal

Uncle T’s Total of the Week (6-0, +12.0u)

Kansas @ BYU OVER 58

$1,000 Bettor Up $35,900 on our bets this season! Best of luck!

College Basketball Best Bets (11/14/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 14, 2024 | 11:22 A.M. CST

College basketball is BACK baby! This has historically been my best sport wagering wise. I’ve had 11 consecutive winning seasons and I continued to smash college hoops last year, finishing with over a 64% win rate. I hope to continue that this year. If you do happen to check these posts and get winners from me, please considering supporting the website by subscribing to our patreon. Click Here to go to the page!

Let’s get into the first official release of the season.

College Basketball Best Bet: Arizona State +5.5 vs. Grand Canyon

When looking at this number initially I was a bit confused. Grand Canyon is definitely a team that has NCAA tournament potential. After reaching the Big Dance two years in a row, they not only returned last season, but they actually got their first ever NCAA tournament victory, upsetting St. Mary’s in the first round. In fact, they hung with Alabama (who went all the way to the Final Four) until the final few minutes in the Round of 32, however they were unable to pull off a second consecutive upset.

The Antelopes return a TON of production from last year’s team, including leading scorer and future NBA draft pick Tyon Grant-Foster. It was actually a surprise to me that he decided to comeback, as some mock drafts had him as a projected first round pick (in a weak draft class) where he may not be that this coming season in a much more loaded class. Regardless, the return of Grant-Foster is clearly why the Lopes are getting so much love from the books early in the season.

The problem, is Arizona State is getting significantly UNDER valued so far this season. The Sun Devils have a largely new squad this year, which is very normal in the current world of college athletics. But that’s not to say they didn’t add some very good talent. Alston Mason, a transfer from Missouri State (started his career at OU) comes over after averaging nearly 18 per game last season as a junior. Additionally, Bobby Hurley Basheer Jihad, a senior who spent three years at Ball State University. Jihad averaged only 2.7 points as a freshman, but improved it to 7.1 as a sophomore, and then led the team in scoring with 18.6 ppg last year as a junior. To add to that, they added BJ Freeman, a Milwauke University transfer who averaged 21.1 ppg as a sophomore last season as well. So the Devils added THREE LEGIT scorers to their squad who can give you 30 on any given night.

Now, it’s not surprising that GCU is getting more love than ASU, with one team returning a ton of production while the other is basically a group of individuals still getting used to each other. HOWEVER, that doesn’t take away the fact that from a PURE TALENT perspective, this number is absolutely off. I initially thought this game had to be AT Grand Canyon (they have one of the best home court advantages in the country). But that’s not the case, as this is a NEUTRAL location game (Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona). So initially I made this game (based on pre-season projections) a pick ‘em on a neutral. And that’s all before looking at what’s occurred so far this season.

Arizona State has one legitimate datapoint and it came last game against Gonzaga. The game was a TRUE ROAD game for the Sun Devils, and they went into Spokane as a 20+ point underdog and hung with the Zags punch for punch. Keep in mind, this is a Gonzaga team who SPANKED top 10 ranked Baylor by 40+ points in the first game of the season. This ASU team is a LEGIT player this year. With all that in mind, I think this could legitimately be ASU -2. And we’re CATCHING 5.5. So we’re backing Arizona State here, and sprinkle a little bit on the ML!!

Official Pick: Arizona State +5.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

NFL Best Bets Week 10 (11/10/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 10, 2024 | 3:32 A.M. CST

NFL Best Bets:

Best Bet #1: 2 Team, 6 Point Teaser: Philadelphia Eagles -1 | Minnesota Vikings -1

Best Bet #2: Philadelphia Eagles -7.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys

Theme of the day: Fade the DALLAS COWBOYS. Let’s go 0-2 and get back to above .500

College Football Best Bets (11/9/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 9, 2024 | 1:53 A.M. CST

Best Bets Today: None

Don’t like any of the slate today enough for an official play, but I do have some opinions. Also check out our podcast picks. But keep in mind to dial back your sizing on non-officials. Good luck today!!

Possible Additions:
Bama -2.5, WVU +4.5, Vandy +7, NCST/Duke OVER 50.5, North Texas +6, Ole Miss ML, Utah +3

College Football Pick ‘Em Show Picks (Slobberknocker Sports)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 9, 2024 | 1:40 A.M. CST

Below are our picks from our Pick ‘Em Show that we were unable to post on YouTube due to the new version of our College Football Show.

Current Show Records:

• Dylan’s Best Bets Record on Pick ‘Em Show (Entering Week 11): 21-9 (70%)

• Uncle T’s Top Total of the Week (Entering Week 11): 5-0 (100%)

• Uncle T’s Dog of the Week (Entering Week 11): 4-3 ATS, 3-4 SU (+4.1 Units)

  • Overall Record Official Sides/Totals: 26-9 (72%)

  • Overall Profit (2 Unit per Game Bettor @ $100/unit) = +36.95 Units (+$3,695)

Week 11 Picks/Bets:

Dylan’s 4 Best Picks of the Week

• West Virginia +4.5 @ Cincinnati

• North Texas +6 @ Army

• Alabama -2.5 @ LSU

• Duke @ NC State OVER 50.5

  • Keep in mind, on the pick ‘em show, Dylan ALWAYS picks 3 sides and 1 total, so there are 4 best bets for the viewers regardless

  • However, he may only officially release 1 play; so be sure to check this website for his OFFICIAL RELEASES on Saturday morning

Uncle T’s Total of the Week:

• Iowa State @ Kansas OVER 49

Uncle T’s Dog of the Week:

• Virginia Tech +6.5 (+225 ML) vs. Clemson

Thursday Night Football Best Bet + CFB Early Pick

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 7, 2024 | 10:42 A.M. CST

Best Bet TNF: Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

We’re going to look at the total in this game. It’s understandably extremely high, with these two teams having two of the most prolific offenses in the NFL. The Ravens have been the number 1 offense in the NFL all season behind Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. The emergence of 2nd year WR Zay Flowers has been a big help as well, plus Baltimore also added former Steelers WR Deionte Johnson this week. Expect him to get a few snaps tonight as well. The Bengals offense is starting to hum with Joe Burrow looking fully healthy after last year’s fluke wrist injury. Jamar Chase and Burrow have gotten on the same page over the past month, and they have been essentially unstoppable.

We already have on data point for this game, and we know it was a tight game. The Ravens won the first matchup in Cinci in OT by 3, although the Bengals were the better team throughout. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a similar outcome tonight. The reason we are looking for the total, though, is more than just the offenses. It’s the LACK of defense on both of these teams.

The Ravens have a new DC in Zach Orr, and it has been a disasterous first season. Mike McDonald’s departure to take over as the Head Coach in Seattle has been felt massively by a Ravens defense that was the best in the league last season, and now sits in the bottom half of the league in most meaningful metrics. On the other side the Bengals Defense has been bottom 10 all year. I would argue that they’ve been a bottom 5 defense when adjusted for schedule. They are HORRIFIC led by their Defensive Coordinator Lou Anorumo, who only still has a job because Bengals ownership just doesn’t give a shit.

With all these things in mind we are going to look to the over. The total currently sits at 52.5 and I believe there is a hesitation in the market to go higher than this, mainly because we just don’t see totals this high in the NFL nowadays. Last time these two teams played there were an absurd 79 points scored in the game. And that was BEFORE the Bengals offense was really clicking. They will be without Tee Higgins again this week, but we saw last week how the Bengals can operate without him. And against this Ravens secondary I believe Joe Burrow will have a huge day even without Higgins.

So we’re taking the over here. Yes, it’s a big number. But it’s just not big enough. My model makes this game 55.5 and so we’re getting some good value here even at a very high number.

Official Pick: Bengals @ Ravens OVER 52.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

NFL Best Bets

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 3, 2024 | 2:07 A.M. CST

We went 3-0 in college football yesterday and we HIT A 43 to 1 PARLAY! Unbelievable day, and we’re up to 29-16 in CFB on the season, good for 64.4%! NFL we hit our Thursday play of the week on the New York Jets. We haven’t had the greatest year in the NFL but we’re getting back on track, 2-1 the last 2 weeks, including a 5-star winner on the Detroit Lions a couple weeks back. Let’s try to keep this streak going today!!

NFL Best Bets:

Best Bet #1: Minnesota Vikings +1 vs. Indianapolis Colts | Philadelphia Eagles -1 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Normally in the NFL, teasers have been the thing I’ve cashed at the highest rate (nearly 70% last season). However, we’ve been struggling this year with teasers. Because of the weirdness of the first 5 weeks of the season, as well as the poor outcomes on teasers playing advantage legs, we went away from teasers for the past month or so. But, today we’re going back to the well.

The Vikings are a team off two losses, playing at home in a place with the best homefield advantage in the league. I also believe the Colts are better with Joe Flacco, but this is an overreaction keeping this line below 7. Anthony Richardson is bad, but this team is not good anyways. Flacco will help, but the Vikings are in a good get right spot here. And they need a win to keep pace with the Lions.

The other leg, we’re going to fade the Jags who have basically given up on the season. Not only is Trevor Lawerence terrible, but the Jags have a bevy of injuries in key position groups. I in NO WAY love the Eagles, but I believe at home, against a BAD team already, now with a ton of injuries, playing against a fully healthy Eagles team who’s gaining confidence IN PHILI. Give me the Eagles to just win the game outright.

Official Pick: 2-Team, 6 Point Teaser: Vikings +1 | Eagles -1

Play Rating: 2-Star

Best Bet #2: Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons OVER 48.5

This is purely a fade of these two defenses. Betting Dallas Cowboys over this season has been very profitable against any team with a pulse on offense. The Falcons have more than a pulse. Kirk Cousins THRIVES against teams like the Cowboys. Dallas will likely be missing it’s top 2 corners, plus Micah Parsons. You look at all the injuries and Dallas should not be getting ANY pressure on Cousins and the secondary will have lots of trouble holding up against those really solid WRs.

On the other Atlanta is one of the worst pressure generating teams in the NFL. Ideally Atlanta gets a lead early and forces the Cowboys to play faster. You’d think Mike McCarthy would figure out after multiple games getting down big and going to the hurry up, that the Cowboys are better operating fast, up tempo, with pace. But he tends to not see these things. Even if he doesn’t, this should be a good spot for the Dallas offense. And, if CeeDee Lamb decides to play hard for more than a quarter, I think we get a real shootout here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this go over by double digits. Let’s take the over here for our second best bet of the day.

Official Pick: Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons OVER 48.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

Best Bet #3: Detroit Lions -2.5 @ Green Bay Packers

College Football Best Bets (11/2/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 2, 2024 | 4:15 A.M. CST

College Football Best Bets

Best Bet #1 (Top Play of Day): Vanderbilt +8 @ Auburn

I’m absolutely shocked at the disrespect for Vanderbilt over and over in the market. But I’m far more shocked at the RESPECT for AUBURN in the market. How in the world they are laying ANYWHERE near a touchdown in this game is ABSURD. Legitimately I made this line Vanderbilt -3 on a neutral field. I think Auburn is one of the worst teams in the country, not to mention it looks as though they’ve quit on the season. These are absolutely two programs headed in completely opposite directions: Vandy is on the uptick and Auburn is trending towards the worst program in the SEC. Then you factor in the coaching matchup with Hugh Freeze vs. Clark Lea. It’s one of the bigger mismatches you will see in SEC Play. I think Lea is one of the best coaches in the country, while I believe Hugh Freeze is a glorified figurehead used for recruiting and in copenhagen dip commercials.

The only possible explanation for the line being even remotely close to this number would be a belief that Diego Pavia was not close to 100% last week. However, if he plays, regardless of his healthy, this line could never be above Auburn -3. And what’s even crazier than all of that is this OPENED 6.5 and got BET UP by professionals to Auburn -8. Seriously, I will gladly take all 8 points, and SPRINKLE some on the money because Vandy is going to WIN THIS GAME OUTRIGHT. I broke this game down on our Pick ‘Em Show on the Podcast as well, and I gave it out on Monday at +7. I’m giving it out at an EVEN BETTER number here. This is one of my favorite plays of the month. We’re going to increase it to a 3-star actually. I would normally make this a 4-star, but the lack of knowledge on Diego Pavia’s full health is going to have me keep this as a 3-star. But still a bigger play than a usual one.

One last nugget: Jerry Kill is a special assistant to the head coach at Vanderbilt. The last two times Jerry Kill faced Hugh Freeze as a head coach, he beat him. And, that included Kill taking his New Mexico State Aggies (led by none other than Diego Pavia at QB) into Jordan Haire Stadium last year and upsetting the Auburn Tigers as 28 point underdogs. So yes, there is a clear advantage here in things beyond the football field as well.

Official Pick: Vanderbilt +8

Play Rating: 3-Star

Play #2 Texas Tech +14.5 @ Iowa State

Look this is a fade of Iowa State at the absolute peak of their market. This Cyclone’s team is a great story, and I absolutely love Matt Campbell. But when you look at these two teams from a talent perspective, it’s truly not much different. Actually in terms of athletes, I would give the advantage to Texas Tech. Now, there’s definitely a clear coaching DISADVANTAGE for Texas Tech; Joey McGuire is a very below average coach and Matt Campbell is awesome. But remember we’re catching 14.5 points here. We don’t have to win outright.

Let’s talk about those 14.5 points. I have no earthly idea how this line is so high. I understand Texas Tech has had some uneven performances this season; they were blown out by Baylor a few weeks back, but Tech closed as a 4.5 point favorite in that game. Then you look at last week against TCU. That game Tech led by 13 in the 4th quarter, when starting QB Behren Morton was knocked out of the game with a concussion. Following the injury TCU made a late push and escaped with a 1 point victory. Tech was somehow a 7 point underdog in that game and covered easily. If you think about what that’s saying, you are telling me that Tech is a pick ‘em right now against Central Florida on a neutral field? A UCF Team that has won ONE conference game. No shot. I made this line Iowa State -7 at home.

Then you factor in spot. Tech is coming off a tough loss, but they are getting Morton back. Iowa State on the other hand, undefeated thus far, is not blowing teams out by any means. They are coming off a bye, but their last outing as a 13.5 point favorite, they absolutely should have lost to Central Florida. UCF led by two scores in the fourth quarter, and it took a crazy late game comeback for Iowa State to remain unbeaten. This Tech team is far better than UCF. Now the game is in Aimes, BUT I think coming off a bye works against this specific team. A lot of people blindly believe teams off a bye play better (because they get healthy, fresh, and extra time to prep), but that’s not the case. In fact it’s completely reliant on specific situations. The reason I dislike this one for the Cyclones is because ISU is not a team of overly talented players. They are a TEAM with good chemistry and flow. And that is who they have ALWAYS been. Because that’s the case, being in rythm is really important. And when you look at their offense specifically, it’s gotten better and better as the season has gone on. That’s a team you don’t really want to have a break, because you want to keep the flow going. Teams that are STRUGGLING are often the ones that most benefit from a bye week (or one that’s super banged up). Thus, I think we will likely see this team struggle in this game offensively, especially early on.

With all that in mind, you also have a very explosive Tech offense. Tahj Brooks is quite possibly the best back in the country when healthy other than Ashton Jeanty, of course. And You’ve got a dual threat QB who is getting better and better with each start. He does make some mistakes at times, but he’s got big play ability when they give him time. ISU’s defense has been good this year, but this is one of the best offenses they’ve faced so far this year. I truly believe Tech is a live dog in this spot, and I’m showing TONS of value on Tech over two TDs. But even if all goes wrong and Tech gets down big. Keep in mind that say we are down 3 TDs late, we have the very possible outcome of a backdoor cover with this Tech offense late in the game. Let’s back Tech here, showing tons of value, as a RARE 3 score LIVE dog.

Official Pick: Texas Tech +14.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

Play #3: South Carolina +3.5 vs. Texas A&M

Last play here we are going to fade Texas A&M. The Aggies are one of the most OVER RATED teams in the country. They are currently ranked 10th, when in reality they are barely a top 25 team. They’ve played an unbelievably weak schedule, and still are extremely fortunate to only have 1 loss. They trailed to a bad Arkansas team on a neutral field, and needed a fourth quarter late score to win that game. They barely hung on against BOWLING GREEN STATE, 26-20 AT HOME with none other than Marcel Reed (New starter) at QB. He was also the starter in that Arkansas game, and he was NOT GOOD in either game. They trailed by double digits to LSU last week in a night home game, and LSU missed FOUR FIELD GOALS. Then Garrett Nussmeier basically imploded and handed A&M 3 picks. The first of which completely turned the game.

Then you look at South Carolina, a team that is 2-3 plays away from being a legit contender in the SEC. They led by two scores in the 4th quarter against LSU earlier this season and a couple massive penalties changed the game. Against Bama they scored late but were forced to go for 2 due to a missed extra point earlier in the game. The 2 point play was a wide open walk in score and the QB (Lanoris Sellers) missed the throw. Still SC got the ball back and was 10 yards from FG range with a first and 10 with just a minute left. They were unable to get in range because Sellers threw a pick.

All of that said, we also love one mismatch in this game: The SC defensive front against the Texas A&M OL. The SC front is quite possibly the best in the country. It’s top 3 without a doubt. They’re playing against a below average, banged up A&M OL. And you’re asking a kid who cannot throw the ball, who is extremely one-dimensional, to hold up against an ELITE front. Not to mention, they’ve had extra prep time coming off a bye (this is a GOOD bye in my opinion). We’re going to ride with the Game Cocks. And I think they could absolutely be an outright win.

Official Pick: South Carolina +3.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

If you want to play a fun little moneyline parlay on all three dogs:

Tech +410 | Vandy +250 | Tech +145 = 42.7 to 1

I don’t recommend playing more than 10 bucks on it. But true odds are around 15 to 1 so it’s a ton of value

Slobberknocker Sports Podcast Weekly Show Bets/Picks (11/1/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 1, 2024 | 4:47 A.M. CST

Best Bets Recap From Weekly Pick ‘Em Show:

Last week we had some technical difficulties and had to post our picks on the website as a backup. I decided because some people only check the website, in order to provide more action, I would post our podcast picks weekly now. We’ve been a crazy hot run. I went 4-0 on the show last week. Turner won his 4th consecutive Total of the Week since we started it. He is now 4-0 on the season on his Totals of the Week.

Turner & I combined are now 22-9 on sides (71%). It’s been a CRAZY hot run. And then Turner gives out a dog to win outright each week. We started that 6 weeks ago. Although that one we don’t count for our official sides record, he’s given out 6 plays. And 2 of those big dogs won outright: a +210 winner and a +350 winner

That’s +5.6 units, minus 4 (for the 4 losses) = an additional +1.6 units to add to the portfolio. Hopefully we keep the hot streak going for everyone this week. Below are the plays from the podcast. If you are new to the website, check out our YouTube Channel: @slobberknockersports and watch the entire episode!!

Dylan’s Best Bets:

1) South Carolina +3.5 vs. Texas A&M

2) Vanderbilt +8 @ Auburn

3) Arkansas +7.5 @ Ole Miss

4) SMU @ Pittsburgh OVER 59

Uncle T’s TOTAL of the Week:

• Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Bucs OVER 44.5

Uncle T’s Dog of the Week:

• Vanderbilt Commodores +250 over Auburn Tigers

College Football Best Bets Record (End of October)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 31, 2024 | 6:01 P.M. CST

College Football Record Last Week: 5-1

College Football on Season: 28-16 (63.6%)

All CFB & NFL 4-Star & 5-Star Plays: 3-0 (+13.0u)

NFL Best Bets (10/31/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 31, 2024 | 3:39 A.M.

Best Bet Thursday Night Football:

It’s late Wednesday night (really Thursday morning) but I need to get this out so it’s posted before any line moves. We’re going to go with the Jets tonight on TNF. One of the Jets 2 wins this season came earlier this year on TNF, a game that was perhaps their most complete of the season from start to finish. Moreso though, we’re just looking to fade the Texans at spot where they are absolutely due for a loss, while the Jets are due for a win.

Yes the Jets are 2-6 and the Texans are 6-2, however a number of the Jets losses have come in very tight games. 4 of the Jets 6 losses have been by 6 points or less, and 3 of those 6 have been by 3 points or less. At this time of year I like to look at teams who are a couple plays away from having a vastly different record. For example, you look at the Jets loss to the Broncos at home. A game they absolutely dominated from a statistical standpoint, and still had a 50 yard field goal to win the game. They make that kick (which Zurlein has traditionally always made in his career), that’s 3 wins for the Jets. Then you look at last week’s game vs. the Patriots where the Jets pulled off some HISTORY. New York held the Patriots to under 250 yards of total offense, they scored 20+ points in the game, and they did not turn it over. Prior to that game, teams who accomplished those feats were 756-0. So in the long history of this league, the Jets found a way to lose a game they statistically dominated (including outgaining New England by over 2 yards per play). Then you look at the game against the Jets where Zurlein missed two EASY field goals, and the Jets STILL had the ball at midfield with a chance to win the game in the final minutes, and couldn’t do it. Even conservatively, you change 3 plays in the Jets season, two of which were field goals, and this SAME TEAM could be 5-3. Instead they sit 2-6. What’s the line on this game at that point.

Then you look at the Texans who come in 6-2, however look at who they have beaten this year. 5 of their 6 wins came against the 1-win Jacksonville Jaguars, the New England Patriots with a rookie QB making his first career start, the Chicago Bears with a rookie QB making his second career start (and first career start on the road), and the Indianapolis Colts TWICE, both times with Anthony Richardson as the starting QB (the worst QB in the NFL this year who was just benched for 40-year old Joe Flacco). So legitimately the Texans have beaten ONE team with a pulse, and it was the Bills, AT HOME, a game that was tied with 1 minute left and the Bills had the ball.

Now all of that is not to dismiss these two teams and what they’ve accomplished this season. Good teams like the Texans find ways to win games, while bad teams like the Jets find ways to lose games. And that’s what has happened this season. But the reality is that you change a few plays in the Jets season and you have two teams playing each other with very similar records, then what is this line? More than likely it’s closer to Jets -4.5 or -5.

From a line perspective we already have some value. But now we look at the Houston Texans offense. They have struggled massively since the loss of Nico Collins a few weeks ago. In that span without Collins, Stroud had two of his worst games as a pro, including a performance with a sub-40% completion percentage. Then last week, the Texans suffered a second blow in the receiving room with Stefon Diggs tearing his ACL. So they are now down their top two weapons, and if life for CJ Stroud wasn’t already hard enough, it just got tougher. Couple that with the fact that DJ Reed has been the best cover DB in the league this year according to PFF. And, while Sauce Gardner hasn’t played to the level he did in his first two All-Pro seasons, he’s still a top 5 CB in the game. Thus, it’s going to be difficult for the Texans to find success through the air consistently tonight. Which means they will largely have to rely on the ground game and Joe Mixon. Well unfortunately for the Texans, since that Nico Collins injury where the pass game was depleted, the run game took a hit as well. In fact, since then, the Texans are 26th in EPA per rush with a 30% rush success rate in that span (Dead last in NFL). So I’m not sure there’s truly a path here to just shove it down the throat of the Jets front 7.

All of these factors lead to massive value for the Jets here, not to mention this is the Jets Super Bowl. Obviously, the loss last week probably put the nail in the coffin, but mathematically, they aren’t out just yet. A 7th loss here would mean 10-7 is the best possible outcome. You’d think 9 wins gives them a shot and 10 would get them in. To keep that alive, it’s a MUST win tonight. We’re going to get the Jets best shot here. And even though the offense hasn’t been great, they have been much better since demoting Nathaniel Hackett, so look for some increased production tonight from Devante Adams and that receiving core.

Let’s back the Jets ML. There’s some -123 out there still at Circa & DKs. Play to -129. At -135 is when I would rather take the -2. Don’t lay more than 2 or more than -135 NO MATTER WHAT.

Official Pick: New York Jets ML (-123) Play to -134

Play Rating: 2-Star

Slobberknocker Sports Pick ‘Em Show Best Bets & Dog of the Week

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 26, 2024 | 5:34 A.M. CST

Dylan’s Best Bets:

1) Boise State -2.5 @ UNLV

2) Minnesota -4 vs. Maryland

3) Bowling Green State +2.5 @ Toledo

4) Total: Kansas/K-State OVER 55

Uncle T’s DD Dog of the Week: Oklahoma State +7 | +210 @ Baylor

• Play moneyline & spread

Uncle T’s Total of the Week: Kansas/K-State OVER 55

CFB Best Bets Saturday (10/26/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 26, 2024 | 5:53 A.M. CST

Best Bets (All 2 Star Plays)

1) Central Florida ML (-120) vs. BYU

2) Minnesota -4 vs. Maryland

3) TTU +7 @ TCU

4) Bowling Green State +2.5 @ Toledo

5) Kansas State/Kansas OVER 55

Moneyline Dog Parlay:

Bowling Green State +110 | Texas Tech +170 | Michigan State +130

Payout: 14 to 1