CFB Best Bet (10/25/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 25, 2024 | 1:28 A.M.

Best Bet Game Breakdown: Boise State -2.5 @ UNLV

Let’s start with Boise States offense vs. UNLV’s Defense. And this is a big part of why we’re going to look to the Broncos here for a best bet. There’s a clear edge to Boise State on this side of the ball. And, it all starts with one man named Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty is far and away the best college football player in the country. What he is doing at the RB position is absolutely historic. His numbers are literally unbelievable, and they just keep getting better. Through 6 games he’s run for over 1,200 yards (over 200 yards per game), 17 rushing TDs (19 total TDs), and a first down every time he runs the ball (10 yards/carry). Additionally he’s the most valuable running back in the country metrically, as he is 1st in CFB in EPA/Rush. He’s also leads the country in yards after contact, with 912 yards after getting hit. To give that stat some reference, imagine starting every play getting hit/touched/slowed by a defender. Now think about this: if you ONLY took his rush yards after that initial contact, he would still be 2nd in the COUNTRY in total rushing. He’s on pace to rush for over 1,800 yards after contact on the season, which would be 500 yards more than the all-time record. He also leads the country in missed tackles forced, with 56, another record he will easily break if he continues even close to his current pace. But what’s even more absurd about the entire thing, is that he’s done this without even playing in 2 halves. He did not play in the 2nd half of their games against Utah State and Portland State. So, in reality, he’s actually only played 5 games. He should not only be the clear Heisman favorite, he should win the thing come December.

The rest of the offense is not bad by any means, but the key issue is the UNLV defense. What looked to be a very good defense to start the season has been anything but solid the last few weeks. In fact, when you look at the UNLV rush defense (which is the better portion of the D), they are 78th in run grade (PFF) and 113th in the country in yards after contact allowed. What does that tell us? they are not gap sound and they do NOT tackle well. And, I just told you that Jeanty is the hardest player in the country to tackle. This is a BAD matchup for UNLV. Additionally, you look at their pass defense, which is 125th in the country (horrible), it’s been even worse the past 4 weeks. They’ve allowed 341 pass yards per game in the Month of October. And it’s not as though they were playing juggernauts. This Boise passing attack led by Maddox Matson isn’t great, but it’s effective enough to exploit a bad pass defense, especially one that’s going to be selling out against the run. I almost think UNLV would need 3-4 turnovers to have a legitimate shot to keep up with Bosie State in this game. And although UNLV has been good at forcing TO’s this year, Boise State LEADS the COUNTRY with the fewest turnovers (just 4 in 6 games). So every pathway to success here for UNLV seems to be stymied by Boise.

The other side of the ball is a bit concerning, in the sense that I don’t think Boise State’s defense is good whatsoever. But they definitely have shown some improvement over the course of the season. Against Oregon early in the year the score was very misleading; although the Ducks scored 35+ points, 14 of them came on special teams. The reality is the Boise “D” actually played quite well in that matchup. Then more recently, a Wazzu team that put up 56 points the week prior, was held completely in check against the Broncos. This UNLV offense is significantly worse than either of those teams’ offenses. Hajj Malik-Williams for UNLV leads the way at QB, and he’s been pretty solid since taking over for Matthew Sluka. But the Rebels did falter at home against Syracuse under Williams, and he also had his worst performance of the season in their most recent outing against a below average defense (50% completion + 2 Picks). The key to this matchup though is the leading wide receiver for UNLV, Ricky White III. He’s legitimately the only playmaker on the outside for the Rebels. And, although he is a VERY good player, it’s become so obvious that the Rebels are going to him on nearly every play that Boise knows taking him away will be key to success. White has been targeted on 61 of the 123 pass attempts by the Rebels this season, which is good for a 49% target share (far and away the highest in the country). The Broncos have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game coming off a bye and they will be ready to take White away early. In the MW Championship game last season, White had 8 catches in the first half and was torching the Boise secondary. After halftime he did not have a single catch. I believe we will see a game plan similar to the that 2nd half come Friday night, and that should lead to great success for the Boise D.

Overall, this is a mismatch. And we’re seeing pro money pour in on Boise. Get in on it before it moves to 3. I’m going to make this a 4 star play which is my first 4 star of the year for college football. Broncos, lay the 2.5 and let’s cash the ticket

OFFICIAL PICK: Boise State -2.5

Play Rating: 4-Star

NFL Best Bet Monday Night Football (10/21/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 21, 2024 | 8:13 P.M. CST

Best Bet:

We are going to go to the Bucs, Ravens game tonight for our best bet, and we are going to look to the OVER 48.5. Pure value bet. Both defenses are not good. Both offenses are top 10 in the NFL. Good weather conditions, and extra time to prepare. This number should be 54. We are going OVER.

Official Pick: Ravens @ Bucs OVER 48.5

Play Rating: 2 Star

NFL Best Bets (10/13/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 13, 2024 | 2:41 A.M. CST

Another tough loss last week on our teaser. We got home easily on the Falcons +8.5 on Monday night, and they actually won the game outright. Then we’re on the 1 yard line going into score to up 17-0 (catching 8.5), and Gardner Minshew throws a 100 yard pick six, and flips the game entirely. All of the sudden we look up and we’re down 3 at halftime despite outgaining the Raiders 206-63 through the first 25 minutes of the game. Tough one to swallow but that’s been our luck this year. We will keep it going and get back to winning, hopefully this week.

Best Side OF THE SEASON: Detroit Lions -3 vs. Dallas Cowboys

This is basically a fade of the Cowboys and a sell high spot. Everyone saw Dallas win their last two games, both of which being primetime games. However, the wins came against two of the worst offenses in the league in the Giants and the Steelers. The Cowboy defense, in reality, has not been good this season. And now they face one of the best offenses in the league, who seems to be finally clicking on all cylinders. The Lions were also on a bye last week, while Dallas had to play late Sunday night.

This spot in general feels like a really bad spot for Dallas. Then you take into account a few more things. First off, Dallas won on the final play of the game against Pittsburgh last week (with Justin Fields at QB who is bottom 5 in the NFL in QBR). If that pass falls incomplete, or if the Steelers recover the Rico Dowdle fumble on the one yard line & Dallas loses this game, what is this line? I’d argue that it’s at LEAST -4, possibly -4.5. Additionally, there’s been phony scores between both these teams before this past week. For example, Detroit’s lone loss came at home against the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Lions outgained the Bucs by 250 total yards in that game, and somehow lost the game. That’s a game the Lions win 95% of the time. Additionally, the Dallas final score against the Ravens earlier this year was more than phony. They got down 28-3 in the game, but scored multiple touchdowns late after a ridiculous collapse by Baltimore that included the Cowboys recovering an onside kick. The reality is if that score ends up closer to what it was heading into the 4th, and the Lions don’t blow that game to Tampa, this could easily be closer to 5 or 6.

My point is this is a MASSIVE mismatch. I am not one to call “LOCKS” but this is my play of the year so far. We are going to go with a FIVE STAR (2.5% of our entire bankroll) on the DETROIT LIONS here this Sunday. Lay the 3. REALLY try to get 3. Lay -3 at -123 or better. Anything over that level of juice, you’re better off taking 3.5 (meaning -3 at -123 = bet, -3 at -124 = no bet, take -3.5 at -110 instead)

Official Pick: Detroit Lions -3

Non-Official Plays:

Teaser of the Week: Jaguars +8.5 to Eagles -2.5

Look we’ve struggled with teasers this year - so rather than actually give this one out as an official I’ll just say maybe throw .5% on there. Or stay away from these until we get back on track. We’re going Eagles to Jags for this teaser.

Total of the Week: Tampa Bay Bucs @ New Orleans Saints OVER 42.5

This number is just very short. Yes, the Saints defense has been better this year than in the past couple seasons. However, injuries are starting to pile up, and they’ve regressed the last couple of weeks. On the other side the Bucs D is an ABSOLUTE SIV. I truly believe it’s one of the worst units in the NFL .

College Football Best Bets (10/12/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 12, 2024 | 4:05 A.M. CST

CFB Best Bets 2024-2025 Season

• Overall Record:: 18-12 (60.0%)

• Last Week: 5-0 (100.0%)

Week 7 Best Bets: Don’t love the card like I did last week, but there’s still some good value on a few plays here.

Best Bets Below are ALL 2 Star Plays

Best Bet No. 1: Vanderbilt +14 @ Kentucky

• Look, as a guy who loves to bet spots at times, this is not a good spot for Vanderbilt. UK is coming off a bye and Vandy is coming off the biggest win in program history. BUT, if spot isn’t a massive factor, I bet numbers, not teams. And the number here is wrong.

  • Think about it this way. Alabama laid 22 at Vanderbilt last week. Vanderbilt has the worst homefield advantage in the power 5. So let’s call it Bama -23 over Vandy on a neutral. Two weeks ago Georgia laid 2.5 AT Alabama, which means Georgia would be around a 5 point favorite against Bama on a neutral. Georgia laid 24 at Kentucky. So they would be a 27 point favorite over UK on a neutral. This current line is telling us Kentucky is an 11 point favorite over Vanderbilt on a neutral field. I know all of that is confusing, but what I mean with all of this is that ACCORDING TO VEGAS if Georgia met Kentucky on a neutral field, Georgia would be -27, and that means then, that Bama would be laying around 22 on a neutral field to Kentucky. And as I mentioned just a few seconds ago, Bama would be laying 22 to Vanderbilt at a neutral field.

  • Why is all of that important? Because Vegas is telling us BASED ON THE LAST 2-3 WEEKS, that Vanderbilt and Kentucky are basically EVEN teams. Kentucky and Vandy on a neutral field would be a pick ‘em. But for some reason, the line is TWO TDs. Which really means 11 points on a neutral field. So this line, then, according to Vegas’s last few weeks, is 11 points off. And should be closer to UK -1 or so.

• With all of that in mind, It’s too hard to pass up that kind of value. 14 points is a lot, even in a road game in a bad spot. Vandy has the offensive firepower to pull off a backdoor cover if all goes to shit. But more importantly, Kentucky’s offense is anemic and they are going to have a tough time covering more than 2 TDs

Best Bet No. 2: Ohio State -3 vs. Oregon

• Im my opinion, this game was probably properly priced at 4 to 4.5. My power rankings have Ohio State a 7 point favorite on a neutral field over Oregon, so I agreed with the open more than where it is now. At -3 this line is way too short

• Ohio State has the better offensive and defensive line, they have had the more impressive performances, they have the better skill position players, and overall the better team. Yes Autzen is a tough place to play, but I like the Scarlett and Grey here in this one

Best Bet No. 3: Kansas State @ Colorado OVER 55

• Short and sweet - both offenses are elite, both defenses are not good

• Colorado will light up that K-State secondary

• K-State will have a field day running all over CU’s defense

• I could see this turning into a real shootout

  • Try to get 55 - that’s a very key number in college totals

Missed the Card:

Boise State/Hawaii OVER 59.5, Iowa State +3 vs. ISU, USC +4 vs. Penn State, Cal +3.5 @ Pittsburgh

Note: Missed the card means I considered, but didn’t actually get there because of whatever reason. If I give an “Opinion” it means I liked the play enough to bet a few bucks on it, but not to make it an official play. So my opinions have done quite well, but just missed the card means I didn’t bet it at all. So take those with a grain of salt.

College Football Week 6 Best Bets (10/5/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 5, 2024 | 2:44 A.M. CST

We are in the green (13-12), despite some really tough beats to start the year. Let’s see if we can’t get some separation and get this season on track here after 2-2 last week.

Best Bets:

Best Bet No. 1: Washington Huskies -1.5 or ML (-120 or better) vs. Michigan

• We’re going with the Washington Huskies here for our best bet. I gave this one out early in the week on the podcast, and for some reason we’ve seen this line trend down closer to pick ‘em, which is quite surprising. It wouldn’t surprise if Saturday morning we start to see money come in on Washington, because sharp money coming in on Michigan makes no sense (looks like a dummy move). When we look at this Washington team, they come into this matchup 3-2, however their record is quite deceiving. Let’s dive into the matchup

• Post Game Win Expectancy: One metric I love looking at mid-season is called “Post-Game Win Expectancy” (PGWE). Essentially, what that number tells us is based on what happened in the game (the box score, how the game played out, how efficient each team was), this is the probability that a team wins this game.

  • So, for example, take Texas early in the year playing Louisiana Monroe: they win that game by 50+ points, and absolutely dominate every aspect of the game. In that case, Texas’ PGWE would be 100% and Louisiana Monroe’s would be 0%, because based on what happened in the game, if that game was played out 100 times, Texas would win every single time.

  • Example number 2, let’s look at week 1 in the NFL where the Chicago Bears beat the Tennessee Titans by 7. However, Chicago had just 148 yards of total offense, and gained less than 3 yards per play in that game, while the Titans had over 150 more total yards, and gained over 1 yard per play more. However, the Bears scored 2 non-offensive TDs (blocked punt and interception return), which allowed them to somehow, improbably, win the game. Although the Bears won, if that game was played 100 times over, the Titans are much more likely to win, as blocked punts and interceptions returned for TDs are not highly repeatable. Therefore, the Bears won the game, but their PGWE was less than 10%. The way I think about it is the PROBABILITY A TEAM SHOULD HAVE WON THE GAME. Keep that in mind as we refer to it here.

• So back to the Washington Huskies. They started the season 3-2, with losses at home to Washington State and at Rutgers. Loss number 1, the Huskies outgained Washington State by 71 yards, over 1.0 yards per play, and had a success rate of 50% compared to WSU’s 43% (% of successful plays on offense). That led to Washington having a PGWE of 78% (they win that game 8 out of 10 times). Loss number 2 was arguably worse, which was their most recent outing at Rutgers. Washington outgained Rutgers by a STAGGERING 222 total yards, including over 3 yards per pass, 1.5 yards per rush, and 2.7 yards per play (meaning they literally gained 2.7 yards MORE than Rutgers every time each team snapped the ball). However, Washington was unable to convert trips into Rutgers territory into points (7 trips inside Rutgers 40 yard line, just 10 total points). A big reason for that was the FG kicker for Washington (who was quite reliable last year, as well as this season until this game), went 1/4 on FGAs in the game, including misses from inside of 40 and 30 yards. He also missed a potential game-tying 50 yard FG as time expired, which ultimately gave Rutgers the win. Once again, despite the loss, Washington had a PGWE of 83%.

  • My point in describing all of this is that while some will see Washington’s 3-2 record, and wonder how they could possibly be laying points to the #10 team in the country, the reasons outlined above are exactly why that’s the case; Washington absolutely SHOULD BE 5-0, and metrically the line absolutely makes sense

• Michigan on the other hand, comes into this game 4-1, fresh off back-to-back wins. They are 2-0 since making the switch at QB to Alex Orji. Again, on the surface, that looks great. The Wolverines got smacked at home by the Longhorns in week 2, but after making Orji their starting QB, came back and upset top 10 ranked USC at home as a 5.5 point underdog week 4. The problem with Michigan is that in their current form they completely rely on a specific game script in order to be successful. That means, the Wolverines MUST get a lead early, lean on their run game, shorten the game, and make teams play from behind against their solid defense. That’s been the way they’ve won their first two Big 10 games this season. The problem is, what happens to this Michigan team if they trail early on? Alex Orji in his two career starts (the last two weeks) has thrown for 113 yards; not per game, IN TOTAL. That’s less than 60 yards per game. And that came against two middle of the pack defenses (Minnesota and USC are both outside the top 35 in defensive efficiency). The Michigan passing attack is absolutely pathetic. And it’s unlikely that we’re going to see much improvement as time goes on, because Orji just isn’t a good passer. He’s a glorified RB who throws the ball when he absolutely has to in order to keep defenses honest. And, unfortunately for Michigan fans, he’s the best they have this year.

  • In addition to the offense not being good this year, the defense has not been close to as good as last year. Now of course you expect a team that loses significant personnel to drop off some, but the last two weeks were concerning. USC trailed by double digits late in the game, and Miller Moss went up and down the field on them, giving the Trojans a lead with under 5 minutes to play. It took a late Michigan 70+ yard drive to save the game for the Wolverines. Then last week, Michigan had a 27-0 lead against Minnesota in the second half, with an offense that has been historically bad and hasn’t looked any better this year. And yet, the Wolverine D allowed the Golden Gophers to score 24 unanswered points to end the game, cutting the lead all the way down to 3 with under 2 minutes to play. In fact, there was a legitimate shot for Minnesota to win this game outright as a double digit dog. How? Because down 24-27, the Gophers RECOVERED an onside kick, which gave them the ball past midfield, only needing a FG to tie or a TD to win. And having scored a TD on three consecutive possessions in the 4th quarter, the Michigan Defense was in big trouble. Inexplicably, an official threw a penalty on Minnesota for offsides on the onside kick, a call that was proven 100% incorrect by video review. It truly saved the game for the Wolverines. Thus, just as we talked about how easy it would be for Washington to be 5-0, Michigan could just as easily be 3-2. And if those records were the case, what’s this line at that point? Probably closer to Washington laying a TD.

• In addition to all the information above, also throw in that this is Michigan’s first true road game of the season. In fact, it’s the first time all year they’ll leave the confines of Ann Arbor to play a game at all (all of their 1st 5 games came at the Big House). And, not only are they going on the road for the first time, with a QB who’s never made a true road start, but they also are making an unfamiliar trip. This will be the first time that the Wolverines travel this far to the west coast for a CONFERENCE GAME as the Huskies are now in the Big 10. While they may be used to trips to the midwest, now they are changing time zones, and that’s just another factor to consider here when looking to take Washington or fade Michigan.

• And lastly, we have a huge coaching edge to Washington. Sherron Moore was a terrible hire by Michigan. They could’ve had Kalen DeBoer, or Jessee Minter, and instead they decided to go with the one guy who actually did a below average job during the National Title run. And it’s clear as day that in-game he struggles. On the other side Jedd Fisch is an excellent coach. He proved his worth turning a terrible Arizona program around. He will win here at Washington sooner rather than later. And in a game where I believe the two teams are relatively close, we’re getting the better coaching staff, the better quarterback, and home field advantage. Plus Washington played early last week, which gave them an extra day to prepare for this game. I love the Huskies in this spot. Take them on the moneyline at -120 or better. If you don’t have that available -1.5 is fine too. Really anything below the key number of 3 is a good wager.

OFFICIAL PICK: Washington -1.5 or -120

Best Bet No. 2: Navy @ Air Force OVER 35

• Full disclosure I got this at 34.5 early in the week. I was SHOCKED to see that number below 5 TDs. On the surface, you think “service academy game” means UNDER. And, traditionally you’d be correct. The problem with that theory is it assumes that both teams only run the triple option all game long. While Navy does run the triple option at times, they have significantly altered their offense this year, throwing the ball significantly more than they have in any year in the past decade. The Midshipman have a QB who can absolutely spin it back there, and they even line up in a traditional shotgun formation at times (unheard of for service academies).

• On the other side we have an Air Force team that has been nothing short of horrific. While the defense hasn’t been terrible as a whole, the Falcons have given up 30+ points in back-to-back games against two below average offenses. They allowed 31 to Baylor two weeks ago. That Bears team was starting a backup QB and had really struggled to move the ball up until that game. They followed that up with a trip to Wyoming who was WINLESS and who had metrically one of the 5 worst offenses in the FBS. That same offense put up 31 on this Falcons defense last week.

• When looking at the number here, again you can see why the oddsmakers may be thinking low scoring. However, understand that Navy has played 4 games this season (4-0). In all 4 games Navy has gone over this total on its own. The lowest point total Navy has eclipsed this season was 38 points three weeks ago against Temple. Thus, I absolutely would not be surprised if Navy was able to go over this number on their own. However, it’s not as though we should expect to have to do that, as the Navy defense is NOTHING to write home about. Week 1 they gave up 21 points to an FCS school in Bucknell. Week 3 they allowed Memphis to drop 44. And even last week against a bad UAB offense, they still allowed 18. Even Temple, the worst offense in the FBS put up 11 on this Navy defense. Let’s say worst case scenario Air Force can’t even eclipse 11 and scores 10. In order to lose this bet, Navy would have to put up 2 TDs less than their lowest point total this season. I just don’t see that happening. I believe a ton of people will blindly bet the under in this game, not knowing the offensive capabilities of this year’s Navy team. And I believe this total is off by nearly 10 points. We’re taking the value here all day. Try to get 35, but I like this up to 37.5

OFFICIAL PICK: Navy @ Air Force OVER 35

Best Bet No. 3: Georgia Tech -9.5 vs. Duke

• I’ll try to keep this one shorter and as simple as possible: this is a TERRIBLE spot for Duke and a great spot for Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are coming into this game 3-2, while the Blue Devils come in a perfect 5-0. Once again, records can be deceiving. Georgia Tech is legitimately 3 plays away from being undefeated this season. Week 3 they lost to a Syracuse team on the road purely because they were not ready to play. Cuse jumped on them and GT was fighting back all night, yet still had a shot to win the game late. One failed 3rd down conversion attempt was likely the difference in a win vs. a loss. The second loss for GT came two weeks ago against Louisville. The Jackets were a 10.5 point underdog, and led 7-0 in the game. Georgia Tech ended up losing the game 31-19, and not only should’ve covered the 10.5, they should’ve won the game outright. In fact, Louisville had just one offensive TD the entire game. They scored on a fumble return for a TD and on a late blocked FG returned for a TD. Those two fluke plays swung the game from a GT outright win, to a Louisville win and cover. It was a tough loss for GT, and an even tougher loss for GT backers that day (myself included). However, there were a lot of positive to take away from that game. Louisville was supposed to be a top 20 defense this year, and yet GT was able to move the ball up and down the field against them all day long. Additionally, the GT defense showed well against Tyler Shough and the Cardinal offense.

• Now GT is coming into this one off that most recent loss. Thus, they’re going to be highly motivated knowing this is a huge swing game in their season. Additionally, the Jackets were on a bye last week, so they’ve had a full extra week to prepare for this Duke team. And keep in mind this is a Duke team coming in a perfect 5-0. So there’s zero chance that GT will be overlooking them in this spot. The Jackets will be dialed in

• Duke on the other hand is coming in off a big, emotional win over their RIVAL in North Carolina. The Blue Devils trailed 20-0 in that game last week. At one point in the 2nd half, UNC had a 98% chance to win the game (leading by 20 with the ball). However, a crazy quarter and a half of football later, and somehow, someway Duke emerged victorious by a single point, 21-20. A PGWE of below 50% also backs up that Duke had no business winning that game. Malik Murphy (Duke QB, Transfer from Texas) looked horrible in the game against UNC prior to that comeback. In fact, in the game as a whole he completed less than 50% of his passes. It’s not as though this game was an outlier by any means though, as Duke had a very close win over Northwestern earlier in the season after trailing late in that game, winning in double overtime.

• Overall, there’s a reason GT is nearly a double digit favorite, and continues taking money, despite being 3-2 facing a 5-0 team. The Jackets are far superior in the trenches, they have the better QB, and they have a distinct spot advantage with extra rest, while Duke is coming in off an emotional win. This is a big let down spot for Duke, and I expect GT to roll here by 2+ TDs, possibly by 20+

OFFICIAL PICK: Georgia Tech -9.5

Best Bet No. 4: Marshall -3 vs. App State/Marshall -2.5 1st Half vs. App State (Split half and half)

• Marshall comes into this game the much better team. We can start with that. The Thundering Heard have been especially good in the first half this year. On the other hand, App State has been very disappointing as a whole. And they have been significantly WORSE early in games. In fact, if it weren’t for a comeback after being down 16-0 against East Carolina, this App State team would likely have just one win on the season, entering this game.

• Now all of that said, I think Marshall is going to be the side here in this game regardless, but the reason I’m high on this play is more than that - it’s the spot. App State had their game cancelled last week due to the impact of the flooding on their campus and their community. It’s extremely unfortunate for those kids and that area, however it’s also really hindered their ability to practice and maintain a normal schedule. The odds that this App State team comes into this game focused are highly unlikely. Not only have they been off for two weeks from games, but we don’t even know if they’ve really been able to practice. Already not a very good team, now they are coming in to face a solid Marshall team in a really tough spot

• The reason I want to split this is because I’ve seen Marshall be significantly better early in games (as mentioned). I also think if we get any fight from App State here, it could come late. I’d be shocked to see them come out and execute extremely well early in the game, considering what they’ve been dealing with the last week plus. Additionally, not even factoring in the hurricane, this App State team has been significantly worse early in games anyways. As mentioned they did make a comeback against ECU earlier in the season. So because of that we’re going to split this half and half. I do like both (first half and game). I think more than likely we see Marshall jump on them and hold on. But because of what I’ve seen from this Marshall team and this App State team we’re going to take a little insurance and play both the first half and the game here. We also get to lay less than a FG by taking the first half too. So I like that aspect as well

OFFICIAL PICK: Marshall -3 | Marshall -2.5 (1H): Split 1 Unit on Each

Opinions/Possible Additions: These are plays that currently are not on my official card for best bets, but could be added during the day tomorrow. Most of these I’ve bet myself, but I’ve bet them smaller than my best bets (say .25% to .5% of bankroll)

Stanford +8.5 vs. VT: Virginia Tech making an unfamiliar trip to California for a conference game, coming off that emotional, heartbreaking loss. We got VT’s all in performance last week against Miami. It feels like it’s going to be a big let down spot for VT. While Stanford sees this as a huge game for their season if they want to have bowl game aspirations. Also Stanford is phenomenal in this role as a dog of 7-10 points the last few seasons.

Minnesota +8 vs. USC: Minnesota at home taking on a USC team that I believe is quite overrated. They trailed Wisconsin (who is horrible) 21-10 in the second half last week, and Wisconsin absolutely collapsed and allowed USC to not only win, but cover a big number. Minnesota was horrible early against Michigan, but somehow found a way to fight back, and should’ve had a shot to win the game late if it weren’t for a terrible offside call by the officials on an onside kick. Minnesota at home, catching more than a TD. This feels like a trappy spot for USC, who had no business covering a big number last week, and very well could’ve lost outright to a bad team with a backup QB.

Vandy +23 vs. Bama: Vandy has two losses this year by a combined 7 points. Bama is coming in off their biggest win of the season. And, as good as they looked against UGA in the first half last week, they did not look good in the final 40 minutes of that game. If the UGA CB turns his head around on Bama’s final drive, they likely lose the game. Additionally, Bama was in no way dominant early in the year against bad competition. Struggled to pull away from Wisconsin until their QB got hurt. Very well could’ve lost outright at home to South Florida. I mean, if you take out the first half performance by Bama last week, I’m not sure how you possibly get anywhere NEAR 23. It’s just the ceiling of Bama that’s scaring me and possibly keeping me off this. But I really think Vandy is more than a shot to cover here. I somehow think they are a live dog in this game. I wouldn’t be shocked if Bama lost this outright. It’s a bold statement, but Vandy is not bad this year

Other Opinions I have NOT Bet, but considered: Bowling Green State -16, UCONN -17, Louisville -6.5, Georgia -22, Baylor/ISU UNDER 44.5, Pittsburgh -2.5, Texas A&M -2, Navy -9.5

Note: Any official adds will be posted below, at the bottom of this page or on a new blog post. Good luck with all your bets!!

Minnesota Lynx @ Connecticut Sun Game 3 Best Bet (10/4/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 4, 2024 | 5:32 P.M. CST

WNBA Conference Finals: Minnesota Lynx +2.5 (-110) @ Connecticut Sun -2.5 (-110) | Total: 150.5

• Location: Connecticut

• Time: 6:30 P.M. CST

• Series Count: Tied 1-1 (Best of 5 Series)

Summary:

The Minnesota Lynx travel to Connecticut tonight, as they attempt to regain home court along with control of this series. The Lynx finished the regular season winning 14 of their final 15 games (excluding the final game of the season in which no starters played). They were by far the hottest team in the WNBA down the stretch. They handled the Phoenix Mercury in the first round of the playoffs, sweeping them 2 games to 0. However, despite the hot streak entering the Conference Finals, the Lynx dropped game 1 at home to the Connecticut Sun, 70-73, for just their 5th loss at home all season. Minnesota was able to bounce back in game 2, with a much better shooting performance from beyond the arc, securing a 77-70 win. They led from start to finish in game 2, and looked much more like themselves. Yet we sit here on Friday night with the Lynx a short UNDERDOG in this game, and the Sun taking professional money. Here’s why I believe the line move is incorrect, as I believe the Lynx have a great shot to win the game tonight.

In addition to being THE hottest team in the WNBA post-Olympic break, the Lynx were especially good on the road down the stretch. In fact they come into this matchup with the Sun on a 5-game road winning streak, winning 8 of their last 9 on the road in total. Additionally, not only were the Lynx good on the road, they were especially good against the better teams in the league. In fact, the Lynx were 9-4 on the road this regular season against playoff teams, winning 6 in a row vs. those teams to close the season. That means when they step up in class, and they do so away from Minnesota, they tend to win the game outright. Now, yes the Lynx are just 1-2 against the Sun in head-to-head matchups in the regular season, but I don’t put much stock in a regular season series compared to a playoff series.

Moreover, one thing that the stats show from the first two games of this series is that the BETTER SHOOTING TEAM is likely to win the game. Game 1 the Sun shot over 40% from three, while the Lynx struggled mightily (25%). The outcome was predictable, with the Sun squeaking out a close game 73-70. Despite the large gap in shooting, Minnesota still had 3 possessions in the final minute to either tie or win the game. On the other hand, in game 2, Minnesota was the team who shot above 40% while Connecticut shot sub 30%. Even more positively, while game 1 still came down to the final possession, game 2 did not. The large gap in shooting efficiency from behind the arc allowed the Lynx to run away with it, and despite the final score being a 7 point win for the Lynx, they were never in jeopardy of losing the game. The reason I bring this up is because we are looking at a series that very well could be decided based upon which team shoots it better from three. In the regular season the Lynx shot over 37% from beyond the arc, while the Sun shot just 32% (one of the lowest in the league). In the playoffs both teams have shot it better, with Minnesota shooting over 38% and Connecticut shooting it just around 35%. So, we have a Minnesota team that has proven over a large sample size that they are a significantly better shooting team than the Sun, and we are likely to see three pointers decide this game.

With all that in mind, we always have to take into account price. First looking at the moneyline, you can find the Lynx at +120. That means an implied odds of winning for Minnesota of 45.5%. Essentially, in order for us to break even in the long run, the Lynx have to win this game 45.5% of the time. My ACTUAL ODDS calculated this matchup at a 53.2% probability that the Lynx win this game. So what does that mean? It means according to my calculations and how I evaluate these teams, we have a 7.7% edge on the Lynx, which would mean we absolutely have to back them on the moneyline.

Now I want to add one thing. The line on this game is the Sun -2.5. The reason I bring this up, is because normally I would take +120 in this spot in a professional basketball game as opposed to taking the 2.5. However, the WNBA is much different than the NBA with the way teams foul and how end of games tend to play out. Therefore, it’s worth noting some things about possibly grabbing the points. The Sun won 28 games this season, 3 of which came by 2 points or less (10.7% of their wins came by 3 or less). That’s a pretty significant number, especially when you consider that one of those 2 point wins came against the Lynx. Additionally, the Lynx lost 10 games in the regular season this year. 2 of those 10 were by 1 or 2 points (20% of all losses). So we’re looking at a legitimate probability of around 15% that if Minnesota loses and if Connecticut wins, the win is by 1 or 2. You take into account that the two playoff games have been decided by 3 and 7, and the totals in those games have been in the 140s. So while the moneyline is definitely a +EV play. So is the +2.5. So let’s lay both, half a star with each.

Best Bet: Minnesota Lynx +2.5 (-110) for 1% | Minnesota Lynx +120 (ML) for 1%

NFL Best Bet (Teaser of the Week) 10/3/24

Author: Dylan Lieck | October 3, 2024 | 6:09 P.M. CST

Best Bet: 2 Team NFL 6 Point Teaser: Bucs +8.5 to Raiders +8.5

Bucs +8.5: We’re fading a bad Atlanta offense, who’s low PPG are even more deceiving considering they did not score an offensive TD last week at home against the Saints. We’re going to make them cover more than a TD against a good team, with solid backdoor capabilities if all goes wrong and the Bucs are down 2 scores late.

Raiders +9: Same thing here, we are fading a bad offensive team, and specifically a terrible NFL QB. Bo Nix may be the worst QB in the league. Last week he threw for -7 yards on 7/15 in the first half against the Jets. Should the Broncos really be laying points here with an offense that bad? Probably not, but I’m not super high on the Raiders, and they will likely still be without Davante Adams. That said, I’d be shocked to see the Broncos score over 17 points in this game, which means we are going to need 9 points to win this bet. Three field goals, a TD + a FG, or two TDs. Doesn’t matter how we get there, but theme of the week is fade bad teams and make them beat us by margin. We’ll take the Raiders

OFFICIAL BET: Bucs +8.5 | Raiders +9 (-110)

Play Rating: 3-Star

NFL Best Bets (9/29/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 29, 2024 | 1:47 A.M. CST

NFL Best Bets:

1) Green Bay Packers -2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings: This is just a sell high spot on the Vikings. They have been exceeding oddsmakers expectations all season thus far, and have looked great to the naked eye. And they absolutely deserve the credit they are getting. However, they’ve still are dealing with lots of injuries. Jordan Addison (WR2) is a GTD. Still no TJ Hockinson for the Vikings either. And while Darnold has been great so far, now he’s having to go on the road and do it outdoors against a team not named the New York Giants. Additionally, the Packers are getting Jordan Love back. They have played great without him, but with him back they will be so much more dynamic. If the defense can keep Jefferson in check this offense should be humming tomorrow for GB and I could see the Pack jumping on them early. I like the Packers at home laying less than a FG in a big let down spot for Minnesota after back-to-back big wins as an underdog

2) 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Raiders +8.5 to Saints +9

These two teams are both off disappointing performances in week 3, and will be looking to bounce back week 4. The Raiders got embarrassed by the winless Panthers, a game in which Andy Dalton threw for over 300 yards and 3 TDs against a Raiders defense that had shown pretty well through 2 weeks. My belief is that the Raiders were just not ready to play, and came in off a big road win over the Baltimore Ravens, thinking they were going to do whatever they wanted against the Panthers. And, that’s just not how the NFL works. But more than that, this is a fade of the Browns. In order for us to lose this side of the teaser, the Browns have to outscore the Raiders by at least 9, on the road. The Browns have yet to eclipse 18 total points in a single game this season. Barring defensive/special teams touchdowns, I believe 10 points from the Raiders offense would give us a legitimate shot at covering, and 17+ would be an automatic cover. So I like the value there

The second part, is the Saints +9. Again this is kind of similar to the previous game. The lone loss for the Saints came last week, and they’ll be looking to bounce back. This is also a divisional opponent and these games tend to be very tight. Additionally, last week’s loss by the Saints came well within this number of 9 points. If the Saints offense can get back to what it was the first two weeks against a subpar Atlanta Defense, then this should be an easy cover. If not, I still think New Orleans’ “D” can do enough here to keep this close. They held the Eagles in check for the most part last week, albeit with no AJ Brown. And, now they’re facing a Falcons team who is averaging just north of 16 points per game. Again, in order for us to lose this bet, a BAD offensive team has to outscore a GOOD defensive team by MULTIPLE scores. It’s just a logical spot here to take the Saints.

Additionally, last week all teams who were underdogs in this range were winning teaser legs, while the teams that were in the -7 to -9.5 range, and were teased under a field goal, lost.

BOTH PLAYS = 2-Star Plays

College Football Best Bets (9/28/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 28, 2024 | 3:30 A.M. CST

Best Bets:

1) Georgia -1 vs. Bama = 2-Star

2) Baylor -3 vs. BYU = 2-Star

3) UCONN -5.5 vs. Buffalo = 2-Star

4) Indiana -7 vs. Maryland = 2-Star

5) James Madison vs. Ball State OVER 56 = 1-Star

Plays that nearly made the card:

Navy -3.5 vs. UAB

South Florida +4.5 vs. Tulane

UTSA +3 vs. East Carolina

TCU/Kansas OVER 57.5

Notre Dame -6 vs. Louisville

Clemson/Stanford OVER 57.5

New Mexico State +9.5 vs. New Mexico

Oregon -25 vs. UCLA

Monday Night Football Prop Bet (9/23/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 23, 2024 | 4:37 P.M. CST

In this weekly article I’m going to give my best prop bet for the Monday Night game (or games in this case). Tonight there are two games, the Jags at the Bills & Commanders at the Bengals. We’re going to look to the early game (Bills/Jags).

Best Bet: Josh Allen OVER 234.5 Pass Yards

Look the Bills have definitely leaned into the old Sean McDermott days (pre-Josh Allen) where they were a heavy run, smash mouth football team. However, Josh Allen is still Josh Allen, and he’s looked like an MVP candidate through 2 weeks. Normally I’m not a huge fan of going over on passing yard props, especially not this year where the QBs have not played well at all across the board. However, this specific matchup is very adventageous to Allen.

The Jaguars have traditionally been a purely zone coverage team, however this year with a new Defensive Cooredinator, the Jags have become almost exclusively a man-to-man coverage team. The problem with that, is that Josh Allen EXCELS against man. 90% of teams zone Josh Allen because it makes him think and have to take what the defense gives him (i.e. tougher to make big plays, easier to turn it over). Now, could the Jags come out with a specific gameplan and absolutely go to heavy zone coverage. But it’s MUCH more difficult for a team that plays exclusively man to play a ton of zone with just one week to prepare. I think this is going to create a ton of issues for the Jags, regardless of what they do defensively.

Additionally, Jarrian Jones, the Jaguars best cover cornerback, will miss this game due to injury. So you have a team already in a mismatch against this specific QB, down their top corner, who’s already shown vulnrability to giving up big pass plays. I just think this number is a touch short. It’s based more on what QBs have done against Jacksonville historically, as well as the idea that this is a realtively normal scoring game. I love going over here so let’s go over 234.5 pass yards. I see -121 as the juice in most spots, you could take this up to 236.5 (according to my numbers).

Official Prop Bet: Josh Allen OVER 234.5 pass yards (-121)

Play Rating: 1-Star

NFL Best Bets (9/22/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 22, 2024 | 2:07 A.M. CST

Best Bet: Ravens -1.5 vs. Cowboys

Rating: 4 Stars

College Football Best Bets (9/21/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 21, 2024 | 2:17 A.M. CST

All three underdogs on Friday night covered the spread with ease. And if Washington State hadn’t pulled off a crazy comeback late to win in double OT, we’d have had 3 9+ point dogs winning outright last night! Crazy night, let’s see what week 4 brings us!

Best Bets For Saturday:

Top Play of the Week: TCU -2 @ SMU | 4-Star (2% of Bankroll)

• TCU comes into this one off a brutal loss in week 3. The Horned Frogs led by as many as 21 in the second half at home against UCF, a game where they took professional money to close this line as a 3 point favorite. It looked like an easy win, but UCF finally found their offense early in the second half. After an incredible comeback, the Knights trailed by 6 on their final drive, but scored a TD and tacked on the extra point to take the lead. TCU had one last shot and got into longshot field goal range, but they were unable to convert on a 58-yard try as time expired.

• I’m glad TCU lost that game, because if they hold onto that early lead and win last week going away, I’m not sure what this line is (closer to 6). Now look I understand, you can’t just discount an entire half football. However, TCU was the BETTER TEAM for the majority of that game against UCF. I really like what Josh Hoover has done his first three starts this year. The kid threw for over 270, over 350, and over 400 in his three starts, he’s thrown 8 TDs and has ZERO picks. TO’s were a big issue for him in his snaps last year, but he looks to have cleaned that up.

• I definitely do like what TCU has shown offensively, but the main reason I LOVE this matchup is because I’ve HATED what I’ve seen from SMU this season. The Pony Express decided to bench their starting QB Preston Stone, who led them to one of their best seasons in DECADES last year. Instead they’ve gone to a 3rd year guy in Kevin Jennings. The kid is supposedly a great leader, and beloved by his teammates. That’s great and all, but he’s a HUGE downgrade from Stone. This move is actually baffling to me. I know Stone is coming off a big injury at the end of last season, but to bench him in favor of Jennings is going to cost SMU their season. Just last week, SMU was upset, AT HOME, vs. BYU as a double digit favorite. The offense mustered up just 15 points against a BYU team picked to finish dead last in the Big 12. Jennings was 14/32., 140 yards, and an INT. He was horrific. SMU had no business losing that game to an inferior BYU team, but the coaching decisions cost them big time.

• Overall, I just see this is as a very motivated TCU team coming in, coming off that tough loss vs UCF. They absolutely cannot afford this loss. On the other side you have an SMU team clearly trending down, with a very poor QB, in what already feels like it may be a lost season. I just think these are two very mismatched teams headed in opposite directions (at least from an offensive standpoint). There’s been a battle in this game, which I do NOT get (meaning pro bettors have taken both sides). It must be because SMU’s defense is better than TCU’s on paper. But I truly believe this is a blowout. TCU 34 - SMU 17

The Remainder of the BEST BETS Below are ALL 2-Star Plays (1% Bankroll)

Best Bet No. 2: Georgia Tech +10.5 @ #19 Louisville: We don’t know much about Louisville. They’ve played absolutely nobody, while GT is much more battle tested. GT tends to get up for games like this. They struggle in games where they are the favorite. Hanes King has been a cash cow as a dog.

Best Bet No. 3: Tulane -120 vs. Louisiana: This line has come down and it’s freaked me out a little bit, but what I’ve learned is that the market has become flooded with guys who don’t know football, and they PURELY take numbers based on analytics and perceived value. I can’t imagine anyone looking at this game from a coaching perspective or from an eye test perspective and thinking Louisiana is the side. Tulane has the better coach. The better Strength of Schedule. The more talented roster. Give me Tulane here EVERY DAY of the week, and twice on Saturday.

Best Bet No. 4: Louisiana Tech -2.5 @ Tulsa: LT opened as a 1 point dog, and now they are sitting as a near field goal favorite. Why? Because everyone saw what I saw last week, which was that Tulsa may have the worst secondary/pass defense in the country. And they’re playing a team who throws the ball more than any team in the country in LT, who also just had NC State on the ropes in Raleigh. Give me LA Tech here in this spot to win by 3 or more.

Best Bet No. 5: Buffalo +14 @ NIU: This one is simple. Fade the coach who has been incredibly inconsistent over the course of his career as a head coach, coming off the biggest win of his coaching career. We’re catching 2 TDs here and it actually wouldn’t shock me if Buffalo won this game outright. Last time we saw NIU, they were taking down top 10 ranked Notre Dame in South Bend. They were a 28 point dog in that game where they believed nobody gave them a shot to even compete. Now think about the situation now, just 2 weeks later in their next game. They’re now RANKED in the top 25 for the first time in who knows how long (maybe ever). And they are playing below average Buffalo team. HUGE Let down spot. Throw in that NIU’s head coach is 0-4 off a bye. Give me Buffalo and grab this as quick as possible because those 14s are disappearing from the market if you catch my drift

Best Bet No. 6: Rutgers +3.5 @ Virginia Tech: Greg Schiano with an extra week to prepare has been something you want to be on the right side of historically. It’s going to be really tough sledding offensively for a VT team that really looked subpar against a BAD Old Dominion team last week. I don’t know if everyone was just wrong about this VT team, but I’ve seen them play multiple times now, and nothing about them is remotely impressive. They were lucky to even get back in the Vanderbilt game. Should’ve lost by 2 TDs. Now they’re laying 3.5 against a much better team than Vandy, off a bye, with a superior coach? Don’t love Rutgers QB or offense, but I can’t pass up Schiano in this spot. Wish we were catching more like 5.5 but I’ll still take it at 3.5

Best Bet No. 7: UCONN -120 (ML) vs. FAU: FAU nearly pulled off a big upset over Michigan State in East Lansing week 1. If you didn’t know, MSU is not good this year, so even had they won that game, it’s unlikely I would feel any different here in this spot. Last week FAU played their in state rival Florida International. If you look at the final score you’d think FAU probably dominated the game. That’s far from the truth. In fact, FIU outgained FAU on a yards per pass, per rush, and overall per play. However, FIU turned the ball over 5 times and FAU didn’t turn it over once. That is what led to the lopsided outcome, despite FAU not playing very well. I’m not a fan of Tom Herman whatsoever. I backed him and FAU once last year in a similar spot to this and they got smashed. W’ere fading Tom Herman and the Owls here, and we’re actually taking the UCONN Huskies for a best bet. Can’t believe I’m saying this but lay the small juice on the ML and back UCONN to win this one.

Remember these are all my best bets, and besides the top play, these other ones are all 2-stars.

ML Dog Parlay of the Week:

Utah over Oki State, Arkansas over Auburn, Houston over Cinci

• 1U —> +1030 odds

Below Are Just A few Plays from other sharp bettors as well as some plays that barely missed my card. The following plays are NOT official, just some things I considered betting or put a few bucks on.

• East Carolina +7.5, Vanderbilt +21/+20, Arkansas +3 or better, South Florida +17, Illinois +9, Stanford +9, SJSU +14.5, UVA -3, Houston +5.5, Michigan +5.5, Navy +9.5, TTU -3

NFL Best Bets (9/15/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 15, 2024 | 2:18 A.M. CST

NFL Best Bets:

2 Team, 6 Point Teaser: Detroit Lions -1 | Denver Broncos +8.5 = 2-Star

The Lions have a significant offensive advantage against the Tampa Bay Bucs + they’re at home. Additionally, the Bucs have a trio of defensive players out. The Bucs SHOULD be able to put up points on the Lions, but this is not the Commanders in Tampa Bay week 1 against a Rookie QB and a brand new coaching staff. This is against a team that is quite possibly the SB Favorite in the NFC now with McCaffrey’s health in question. Additionally we’ve got the Broncos +8.5 I don’t think this team is good whatsoever, but I do think they’ll show better than they did last week. They stayed within this number last week ON THE ROAD, at Seattle, with Bo Nix making his first career start and throwing 2 picks. Now they get to play at home, against a team playing their 2nd consecutive road game, who failed to score a TD last week as a team. And they have to not only beat us, but they have to do so by more than a touchdown and a two point conversion. We’ll take this two team teaser for play number 1

2 Team, 6 Point Teaser: Baltimore Ravens -2.5 | Houston Texans PK = 2-Star

The Ravens are not starting 0-2, nor are they losing to the LV Raiders and Gardner Minshew at home. Additionally, the Houston Texans didn’t look great week 1. But the Bears had the most fraudalent win, probably in NFL history last week. Caleb Williams was autrocious, and the game is in Houston. Expect the rookie QB to look much better than week 1, but I’d be shocked to see the Bears actually pull out the win here.

2 Team, 6 Point Teaser: KC Chiefs PK | Denver Broncos +8.5 = 2-Star

Adding this play as well. The Broncos can keep this within 8.5 as mentioned above. The Chiefs and Bengals always play close games, but this version of the Bengals is just awful. I don’t see them hanging in there in KC.

Just Missed Card:

Detroit Lions TT OVER 30.5 (-105): I just think the Bucs are going to have immense trouble trying to contain this Lions offense, especially after a subpar outing in week 1 against the Rams. The Lions are going to hang 40 in this spot I believe. The number scared me. away from making this an official play

Falcons @ Eagles OVER 46.5 (-110): It’s hard for me to see how this game goes under. The Phili defense last week looked terrible against the pass, and that was with Jordan Love playing like he did early in the 2023 season. He had a bottom 5 QBR in week 1, and yet the Packers put up 29 points in a game 8 hours from home. Jayden Reed TORCHED the Eagles secondary for 138 yards and a TD on just 4 catches. The Packers put up 414 yards of total offense, including 7.1 yards per play (over 1.5 yards per play more than Phili). Really if it wasn’t for Saquon Barkley and the Packers struggles inside the 20 yard line of the Eagles, GB probably wins that game. On the other side you have the Falcons offense who was supposed to be much improved with Kirk Cousins and a new coaching staff. But they looked terrible week 1 at home against the Steelers. That said, the Steelers are a top 5 NFL defense. The Eagles are FAR FROM a Top 5 defense. So although Atlanta did not look good, I expect them to bounce back here. I think both offenses will put up a lot of points, and yet the total is not very high. The one reason I haven’t taken this is because I want to see the weather in Phili on Monday. This could be a potential added play if the weather holds Monday night.

College Football Best Bet Summary Week 3

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 15, 2024 | 1:02 A.M. CST

After a rough start to the year on our official best bets (1-2 each of the first two weeks), we finally got in the winning column this week with a nice 4-2 Saturday. Add in the Friday night special (KST -7), and we are now up to 7-6 on the season despite the rough start to the year. I’ve had 5 straight seasons in CFB above 60% and I’m looking to make it 6 in a row. Hopefully this gets us back on the right track as we look to inch closer to .600 in week 4!!

Winners:

Miami/Ball State OVER 54: We only needed one team to score to get this one. Miami put up 62. I thought Ball State would put up at least 10, which would mean we’d only need 44 from Miami. Instead we got more than enough from the Canes alone. Biggest play of the day was a winner.

Texas Tech/North Texas OVER 68.5: Almost made this a 2-star, but still a nice winner on the total. We needed 69 to win the bet in the game. We got 59 in the first half. This was a rocking chair winner.

Indiana -3 @ UCLA: Another rocking chair winner here as the Hoosiers DEMOLISHED the Bruins at the Rose Bowl.

South Florida - 11 vs. Southern Miss: I have no clue how this line wasn’t closer to 18. If you watched the South Florida/Bama game last week, you’d know that this Bulls team damn near upset the Tide in Tuscaloosa. It was a 1 point game headed to the 4th, and a 5 point game with under 6 minutes to play. The final score was deceiving, and Southern Miss has a PUTRID defense. A nice late night addition. 4 Winners, none were close.

Losers:

Tulsa +18.5 @ Oki State: I watched Oki State get outgained by nearly 300 yards last week and somehow win against Arkansas. I also watched this Pokes team struggle to run the ball the first two games, and I thought Tulsa would be able to score on this defense after Arkansas torched them for over 650 total yards last week. Unfortunately, despite being the home team and having a QB who had shown well the first two weeks, Tulsa had ZERO offense. And although they were able to stop the run, they were horrific against the pass. Once they got in a big hole, there was no climbing out. They got killed, and this one was never close. Absolutely the wrong side in this specific game, but I’m going to continue to look to fade Oki State down the stretch. They could very easily be 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS, and they’re somehow 3-0 in both.

Hawaii +3.5 @ Sam Houston State: Not going to lie, I over thought this one. I had SHSU -4.5 on my card on Friday with a strong consideration on laying the 4. The market began to move against me and got as low as 3. I started to believe that I was wrong. And when I went back and dove into the box scores of their previous outings I convinced myself that I was on the wrong side. I also realized Hawaii off a bye has been pretty good in the past, as it negates some of the travel disadvantage. But I just made the wrong decision here. SHSU was the right side the whole way, and at the very least I should’ve stayed away from this one and just finished 4-1. Oh well, still a great weekend at 4-2. Can’t ask for better than that.

Check my most recent blog for my NFL Best Bets

Last week, a tough start. However we had Tennessee +4, who led by a score of 17-0. They led 17-3 at halftime, and by 7 entering the 4th. AND, Chicago didn’t score an offensive TD the entire game. In fact they had just 148 total yards in the game. And somehow, someway they covered, and cost us a loser. Keep in mind teams who led by 17 or more over the past decade, as a 4 point dog or bigger were 66-0-1 heading into last Sunday (now 66-1-1). Additionally teams leading by 17 or more in a game against a team that does not record an offensive touchdown? 1-302 (0.3%). We defied the odds last week. Hopefully we get on track week two.

College Football Best Bets (9/14/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 14, 2024 | 9:36 A.M. CST

Since it’s late I’m going to just post the three plays without breakdowns below. Best of luck today

Best Bets:

Tulsa +18 vs. Oklahoma State = 2 Star

Ball State @ Miami OVER 54 = 2 Star

North Texas @ Texas Tech OVER 68.5 = 1 Star

EDIT @ 4:32 P.M. CST

Best Bets Late Games (Additions):
Indiana -3 vs. UCLA = 1 Star
Hawaii +4.5 vs. Sam Houston State = 1 Star
South Florida -11 vs. Southern Miss = 1 Star

College Football Best Bet (9/13/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 13, 2024 | 5:43 P.M. CST

Game Summary: Kansas State -7 vs. Arizona (60.5)

I debated whether to give this play out or not. I initially thought I was for sure going to make this a play if I could get anything below 7. Right at 7 I was going to make it a 2 star, and I was going to pass at anything over 7. I was able to get an early week bet in on Sunday afternoon with K-State -7 at reduced juice (-105). That line moved to 7.5 mid-week, but it has since dropped back down to 7, meaning we’ve seen resistance in the market at 7.5

Best Bet:

We’re going to go ahead and take the Wildcats here as a home favorite of a touchdown. When I look at these two teams I see programs that were largely faded by professionals in the off-season. K-State lost their staring QB from the year they won the Big 12 Championship (Will Howard) to Ohio State. They seem to really like Avery Johnson, despite this, but Johnson is nowhere near Howard as a passer at this point in his career. Additionally there was large belief in the market that K-State’s defense would take a step back this season based on the production lost (not that they were great last year either). Arizona on the other hand, lost their head coach Jedd Fisch to Washington (which was a horrific idea to leave this team). Arizona had a ton of talent coming back, including 2 guys who ended up staying in Noah Fafita and Jalen McMillan (NFL level QB-WR duo). However, the departure of Fisch caused a large amount of the OL and other positions to depart for more money to bigger schools. Those losses on the OL were especially an issue for pro bettors that faded the Wildcat’s win total, and hammered the under.

Looking at the first couple of games for Arizona, one reason I really lean towards K-State is largely DUE to this new world of CFB we live in. When we see a team get faded in the market (like Arizona) and then the first two data points we get the data BACKS UP our pre-season belief, that’s when we start to fade that specific team. That’s exactly why I was looking to take K-State EARLY in the week before any line movement. Week 1 Arizona faced off against New Mexico, a team who was projected to win ONE GAME this season (lowest win total in the FBS). In that game the Wildcats gave up 39 points to New Mexico’s offense. Additionally, they allowed Devin Dampier, NM’s QB, to run it 15 times for 130 yards and 2 TDs. They specifically struggled to contain Dampier on both scrambles as well as designed runs. Ironically that’s EXACTLY what they are going to see from Avery Johnson this week (KST QB), who is DYNAMIC with his legs. In fact, Johnson is significantly better than Dampier and I think the Wildcats are going to struggle immensely trying to stop him. Then you look at Arizona’s most recent outing, where they faced off against an average FCS team (at best) in Northern Arizona, and TRAILED AT HALFTIME. They came from behind to win it 24-14 as 30+ point favorites, and looked unimpressive the ENTIRE game offensively. That’s a huge flag for me in terms of what this team could be going forward. If their defense can’t stop a nose bleed, they can get away with winning games with that offense. But if the offense has the capability of struggling like that against Northern Arizona, they could get blown out of the water by good teams.

I will note that K-State was not impressive whatsoever in their previous game against Tulane. In fact, Tulane really should have won the game, and if it weren’t for a SUSPECT offensive Pass Interference called at the goal line, that game is very likely in OT, and then it’s a coin flip. Tulane was honestly the better team for a lot of that game. However, Tulane has a lot of guys that returned from a good team a year ago. Additionally, despite K-State getting down early and having no rythm on offense, they were able to do more than get it going and ended up with a very productive day on that side of the ball. I was impressed with their ability to fight back and gut out a win on the road, in a tough environment, against a solid team. The biggest concern from my perspective was the secondary. They gave up 300+ pass yards to a QB making his second career start. But what I noticed watching the game was that was a product of poor communication and the secondary just busting. It wasn’t as though the talent in the secondary was so bad that they were getting beat. That tells me that it’s FIXABLE. And if you listened to Chris Kleinmann’s presser this week, he talked about cleaning that up. I think we will see a much better version of K-State’s defense this week as a whole.

So obviously we’re going with K-State here minus the seven. I’ll add in one more thing: playing in Manhattan is tough on any night, but it’s especially hard AT NIGHT. It’s even TOUGHER when you play them there, at night, and it’s a STAND ALONE GAME ON A THURSDAY. We check all of those boxes here. The K-State secondary is keeping me off this being a MASSIVE play tonight. But getting 7 still, can’t pass on this for a 2-star. Give me the Wildcats at home tonight to cover the seven.

Official Pick: Kansas State -7 (-110)

Play Rating: 2 Star

WNBA Best Bet (9/13/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 13, 2024 | 4:02 P.M. CST

Game Preview: Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces

Tonight the Indiana Fever take on the Las Vegas Aces in Indiana with big playoff implications on the line. The Aces are just one game ahead of the Seattle Storm for that 4 seed in the WNBA playoffs. It’s very unlikely that the Aces will catch the Connecticut for the 3 seed, as they are 3 full games behind them in the standings, with just 4 games to play. However, there is a legitimate way the Aces could fall to that 5 seed, which would mean losing home court advantage in the first round against the Seattle Storm. The Aces play at the Storm Tuesday and the Aces lead the season series 2-1. So a loss here to Indiana and all of the sudden we’re getting into 2nd and 3rd tiebreakers to determine who gets the 4 seed. On the other side the Indiana Fever currently sit in the 6 seed, just one game in the loss column ahead of the 7-seed Phoenix Mercury. That said., Indiana did sweep the season series against Phoenix, meaning a tie would go to the Fever for that 6 seed. The Mercury face off against the Seattle storm tonight, ironically, and the Storm are a relatively short favorite (5 points). A loss from the Mercury and a Fever win tonight would all but seal the 6 seed for Indiana, which could mean a lot if the Lynx clinch that 2 spot.

Best Bet:

Look the Aces have more than had the Fever’s number. In fact, the Fever have yet to beat the Aces during their short existence (0-14). They are 0-3 this season, with losses by 19, 19, and 11. So why would we be looking to back the Fever tonight? Well for one, this current version of the Fever is a completely different team than the one we saw get their butts kicked by nearly 20 points the first two times these teams faced off. If you watched those games early in the year, the Fever had absolutely zero shot. In fact, one game they were a +900 dog against the Aces. That was worlds different than the game we saw two nights ago in Indiana. The Fever were more than in the game until the final few minutes, despite Caitlin Clark having one of her worst performances of the season. Vegas obviously agrees with me, as we have the Fever installed at +185 on the moneyline and trending DOWN; a stark contrast to the number we saw two months ago in Las Vegas. The Fever are more than a live dog here

In their game the other night, Caitlin Clark went 6/22, and was just 1/10 from beyond the arc, while having way too many turnovers. Additionally, Fever starting Center Aliyah Boston, was in foul trouble the entire night. Although I’m not a believer that Boston is all that great, she is better than what she showed Wednesday night, going just 3/10 from the floor and scoring just 6 points in 28 minutes, while also fouling out of the game late. Kelsey Mitchell, the elite scorer for the Fever, was okay but shot below 50% from the field, and she’s been on an absolute heater prior to that game. Overall, the Fever played a terrible game on both ends of the floor. They shot just 39% from the field and 27% from beyond the arc; AND, shot below 70% from the FT line (which is highly abnormal). Meanwhile, the Aces had one of their better shooting nights of the year, going 45% from the 3 point line. Although the Aces do have some solid shooters on their roster, almost every player shot above their season average from beyond the arc. Even Kiah Stokes who was a 17% shooter coming in went 1/1 from three. Yet, with as good of a night shooting as LV had, and as bad as the Fever looked, this was a 5 point game late in the 4th. And it took a number of bad mistakes from the Fever to hand LV the game. I think the Fever bounce back tonight in a big way, and find a way to finally beat the Aces.

Lastly the number. I make this about a 47% win probability for the Fever tonight. We’re catching +185, which is implied odds of just above 35% (35.1%). That means we have roughly an 11.9% edge on this game. Which basically means this is an easy bet. We’re 100% taking this. I could even make an argument that with the spot the Fever could be favored in this one. So we will happily take +185 here for a 2 star play

Official Pick: Indiana Fever +185

Play Rating: 2 Star

NFL Best Bets (9/8/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 8, 2024 | 3:46 A.M. CST

Best Bets for Sunday, NFL Week 1 are below. We started off with a nice win with the Eagles covering the 2.5 in Brazil Friday night. Let’s try to keep the good start in the NFL going!!

Best Bet #1: Tennessee Titans +4 @ Chicago Bears

Look this bet comes down to numbers, which is what professional bettors like myself look for. When I look at this game I see two teams with very different public perception. The Chicago Bears were featured in Hard Knox this offseason. Everyone and their mother is talking about Caleb Williams and how he is the next Patrick Mahomes. And now in week 1 they’re laying 4 points against a Titans team that is in no way seen as elite. The public is obviously going to be all over the Bears Sunday morning. And that is just fine with me. There have been 27 QBs drafted 1st overall in the history of the NFL. In that span, those teams are 4-22-1 in that rookie QB’s first career start. That’s an 18% win rate. And in order for us to lose this bet, not only do the Bears have to win the game, but they have to do so by margin (4+ points). I just think there is way too much value here getting 4 full points against a team with a lot of new pieces and a lot of uncertainty.

I also like what the Titans did this off-season. The OL is clearly going to be improved, which will help Will Levis quite a bit. They also brought in Tony Pollard to pair with Tajee Spears out of the backfield; that could be an electric 1-2 punch if Pollard returns to 2022 form. Additionally they added Calvin Ridley & Tyler Boyd to help in the pass catching realm. One thing to note is De’Andrew Hopkins is listed as a game time decision for this one. If he goes, that’s an extra half point of value added in our favor, as I’ve factored him not playing into my pick. Overall the Titans and Bears should play a close game in week 1 and I think Tennessee is a live dog. We’re going to take the points and make the rookie QB cover a decent sized number.

4 points may not sound like a lot but think about it this way. The Miami Dolphins, who were electric a year ago, are playing at home against a team who missed the playoffs last season (the Jags). They’re laying less in that game (Miami -3.5) than the Bears are with a rookie QB making his first career start in week 1. That’s wild from a value/numbers perspective.

Official Pick: Tennessee Titans +4 (-110)

Play Rating: 2 Star (1%)

Best Bet #2: Teaser (2 Team, 6 Point): Bengals -1.5 | Seahawks -6

So I’m going to be straight with anyone reading this. My numbers say this is not the best valued teaser. The highest +EV teaser on the board this week (according to my model) was the Bengals -1.5 and the Cowboys +8.5. Giants +8.5 was a close second (to pair with Bengals). So why am I not taking one of those teams? Usually I would stick to my numbers, but you have to factor in situational elements that the numbers cannot.

And what I mean by that is Bo Nix making his first career start ON THE ROAD, in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. Seattle has the best home field advantage in the NFL and it’s by far the loudest stadium. Bo Nix was outstanding in the pre-season, but that was using a lot of dink and dunk, short throws. Now you put him in a real game situation, against a legitimate defense, in a hostile environment; it’s going to be a different ball game, especially week 1. Denver does not have the weapons to help Nix if he struggles early in the game. Meanwhile, you have Seattle who is starting a new regime Sunday. Mike McDonald (former Ravens DC) gets the head coaching job in Seattle. He also brought over Jessee Minter to be his DC (Michigan’s DC last season). I really like the staff and I really like pieces Seattle has on defense. Additionally, you have a situation in which Bo Nix was still battling for the starting job well into preseason. Therefore, there’s a lot more REAL film on him and the Broncos offense than there would normally be with a team that had an established starting QB. I think McDaniel will use that film and the extra time he’s had to prep for this game to come up with a great plan to stifle Bo Nix. I will say, I don’t love the idea of going from 6 to PK. Theoretically you want to try to go through the 7 and the 3 on all teasers. But in this specific situation I’m going to going 6 to PK with Seattle. 6 has become a secondary key number with the extra point moved back and the way some teams tend to go for 2 when cutting into 2 score deficits late in games.

Additionally, I just can’t trust the NFC East outside of Phili right now. There’s just too much uncertainty in the Cowboys game to be frank. Trevon Diggs coming back from an ACL tear + Deron Bland out for the first 6-8 weeks. The secondary could be in for a long day if DeShaun Watson looks semi healthy. The game is also in Cleveland, where the Browns defense tended to be elite last year. The other possible leg, the NY Giants; well if I can’t trust Dallas, I can’t trust NY. Dan Jones back from injury, but it did not look good in the preseason. Yes it’s in NY and yes it’s Sam Darnold starting for Minnesota. But do you remember Dallas vs. NY last season? That game was in NY and it was damn near 40-0 in the first half. There’s just a part of me that believes Justin Jefferson could go nuclear or Dan Jones could throw a late pick six to get backdoored.

Overall, I’m going to go with my highest confidence sides here in our teaser of the week and that’s going to be with the Bengals and the Seahawks. I know I didn’t mention the Bengals, but that’s because they are playing the Patriots. The Pats are starting Jacoby Brissett at QB, and they may be bolstering the worst offensive line in all of football. Yes, the Bengals have not been good early in the season in past years, and Jamar Chase may not be full go in this one, but I find it hard to believe New England, who’s win total is 4.5, goes into Cinci and wins outright. In which case I’ll take Cinci in this one to get it done.

OFFICIAL PICK: Bengals -1.5 + Seahawks PK (-110)

Play Rating: 2 Star (1%)

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Current NFL Record: 1-0

College Football Best Bets (9/7/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 7, 2024 | 2:47 A.M. CST

Best Bets Week 2:

1) South Alabama vs. Ohio Over 56

Week 1 was very telling for both these teams. South Alabama lost a shootout at home to North Texas, a game in which there were a total of 90 (yes NINETY) points scored in regulation (52-38). Even in defeat, Jaguar’s starting QB Gio Lopez was incredibly impressive. He threw for 432 yards, 4 TDs, and no picks in the loss, while rushing for over 60 yards and another TD on the ground. The run game as a whole racked up 150 yards, and was efficient in doing so. On the other hand their defense was about as BAD as it gets. Chandler Morris, who was an average QB AT BEST at TCU, threw for over 400 yards, 3 TDs, and no picks, while posting a 91 QBR. The Jags Defense had no answers for the passing attack of the Mean Green. And the result was NT hanging half a hundred on the Jags ON THE ROAD.

Ohio on the other hand played a Power 4 opponent in Syracuse on the road, falling 22-38 in a high scoring affair as well. Last season the Orange did not have a single game in which their starting QB threw for 300 yards or more. In steps Kyle McCord, who was NOT good at Ohio State last year, and he slings it around on the Ohio Bobcats Defense for 354 yards, 4 TDs, and nearly 9 yards per pass. The Syracuse run game wasn’t great, but when you factor out sacks they still ran for 5 yards per carry on the Bobcat D. On the other side of the ball, the Bobcats ran all over the Orange, putting up over 250 yards on the ground. The pass game wasn’t elite, but did enough.

Overall, you look at these two teams and both groups I have a big down arrow on both their defenses from a year ago. Additionally I have a big up arrow on both their offenses. Both teams showed really well in week 1 offensively, but gave up a ton of points and yards on the defensive side. And then lastly, we look at the tempo of both teams. South Alabama was an average tempo team last year; this year with a new coach, they were 14th in the country in plays per minute in week 1 (playing MUCH faster = good for the over). Similarly, Ohio has been one of the SLOWEST teams in the country over the past couple seasons; this year, week 1 they went from around dead last in tempo to slightly above average (65th) in plays per minute. So you throw in the pace of both teams increasing, along with how they are trending and this is a solid play. Also note that there was a big sharp move on this total when this opened below the key number of 55 (that’s a very key number in CFB Totals). So now we’re sitting 56-57. There’s still value here at those numbers, as oddsmakers have just been too slow to adjust to these new teams with all the turnover that comes with the portal. Take the OVER here for our first best bet.

OFFICIAL PICK #1: South Alabama vs. Ohio OVER 56 (-110)

PLAY RATING: 2-Star (1% of Bankroll)

2) Texas Tech @ Washington State OVER 66

I normally prefer sides to totals, but sometimes it’s better to just keep it simple. Texas Tech and Washington State in their first two games combined for a total of 203 points. Wazzu beat Portalnd 70-30, while Texas Tech ESCAPED (and boy do I mean escaped) what would’ve been a devastating loss at home to FCS opponent Abilene Christian. The Red Raiders were HORRIFIC defensively in their game, allowing the Wildcats of ACU to put up a RIDICULOUS 650 yards of total offense. ACU’s starting QB threw for over 500 yards and 5 TDs, including nearly 10 yards per pass. TTU’s offense was just as impressive from a numbers standpoint.

Wazzu played a similar game as well, with their defense giving up 450 yards of total offense to a bad Portland team. They scored 30 points themselves, although the game was never close because Wazzu put up SEVENTY.

Look, I could give more stats here that all backup why this is a solid bet. The truth of the matter is this number is failing to adjust for what we saw week 1. Obviously we don’t want to overreact to one datapoint, however the defenses that trotted out for both teams were extremely subpar. Both teams play at a very fast pace, and both offenses put up over 550 yards last week. I don’t see a way this game goes under barring significant injury to either starting QB. Weirder things have happened, but I’m going to go with the simple approach to this one and stick to the over in an underadjusted market with two bad defenses, and high powered offenses. Give me OVER in this matchup in Pullman (also the weather is perfect there tomorrow night).

OFFICIAL PICK #2: TTU @ Washington State OVER 66 (-110)

PLAY RATING: 2-Star (1% Bankroll)

3) Northern Illinois +28.5 @ Notre Dame

I was waiting for this to get above 28.5. Now that number is available so we’re going to take NIU here. They return 14 starters from last year’s team that finished 7-6 and won a Bowl Game. Additionally, NIU has not lost a game by more than this number (28). I like this NIU team and they’ve shown an ability to not get run off the field against teams like this. A couple years ago they damn near beat #8 Kentucky on the road. Last year they lost to Nebraska by 20+ but covered this number.

Additionally you look at the spot for Notre Dame. They are coming off a very emotional victory on the road over a top 20 team in Texas A&M. That was a HUGE win for this program and for head coach Marcus Freeman. It’s just a big natural let down spot.

I also did not like what I saw from Notre Dame’s offense last week. Riley Leonard just looked very average against an “OKAY” A&M defense. He threw for less than 150 yards and was lucky to not have thrown a pick (A&M dropped 2). Now you’re asking a team with a non-explosive pass game to win by margin? I’m not sure they can do that in this specific spot. They’ll improve as the year goes on, but right now I’m not sure they can. Let’s take NIU with the points. Especially now that it’s OVER 4 TDs

OFFICIAL PICK #2: Northern Illinois +28.5 (-110)

PLAY RATING: 2-Star (1% Bankroll)

IMPORTANT: Check back here on the website at 2 o’clock CST. If I add any games it will likely be by that time. Below are the games that I considered but ultimately left off my official card.

Texas State -1 vs. UTSA: Well I loved this play early in the week and I bet it at a bad number (-2.5). I fully expected sharp money to come in on the Bobcats following the unimpressive performance by UTSA week 1, nearly losing to an FCS opponent. Texas State played a poor game as well, but they were never in real jeopardy of losing. Unfortunately the market has completely disagreed with me on this one. That’s what kept me off this game. This was going to be a 100% best bet this week had this closed 3 or 3.5. Instead it moved all the way to -1. So pro money came in on UTSA. I still like Texas State, just stayed off it for a best bet due to the market move against me.

Baylor +15 @ Utah: Sharp money on the Bears, and I really tried to make a case for Baylor here. I think they SHOULD cover this, but re-watching their game film from week 1 against a bad Tarleton State team, I saw DeQuan Finn (new Starting QB for Baylor) look underwhelming. He made too many mistakes (2 picks vs a bad Defense). I just can’t trust him on the road in a hostile environment at altitude. Plus Utah is healthy for the first time in 2 years. I still think the Bears cover more than 2 TDs, but couldn’t pull the trigger

Oregon Team Total OVER 40.5: I just felt that taking TTU/Wazzu was a better play when it came down to it. Oregon’s offense will have a solid game. But their OL issues are scaring me away from making this one an official play.

Other Sharp Action I Considered or Played Small: Note these are NOT official best bets. Only best bets are the 2 plays at the top

• Virginia +2.5 @ Wake Forest: Now UVA +1

• ECU/ODU OVER 51.5: Moved to 54.5

• Iowa State +3.5 @ Iowa: Now Iowa -2.5

• Illinois +5.5 vs. Kansas: Now Illinois +4.5 (This one I considered)

NFL Best Bet (9/6/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 6, 2024 | 4:38 P.M. CST

Best Bet No. 1: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 vs. Green Bay Packers

The first edition of Friday Night Football starts tonight in Brazil and we’re going to look to the Philadelphia Eagles laying less than a field goal. Phili hasn’t lost a season opener since back in 2020, and is 2-0 under the current head coach, starting QB combo (Siriani & Hurts). Meanwhile the Packers have lost 2 of their last 3 openers, with their lone win coming last year against a Chicago Bears team led by Justin Fields; a Bears team the Packers have absolutely dominated twice a year for the past decade plus.

Additionally, the Eagles just tend to be better early in the year and worse later. Whereas the Packers have been the complete opposite under Matt LeFleur. The last two seasons the Eagles are 10-1 in their first 11 games. And that included last year with a terrible secondary and without half decent coordinators. I’m not super high on Kellen Moore, but he does tend to have good starts to the season, then fade off towards the end of the year as adjustments are needed. So better to get on the Eagles early here.

Lastly, I just don’t trust Jordan Love yet. He was awesome at the end of last year, there’s no denying that. But it’s such a small sample size. Legitimately he had 9 good games, and 9 terrible games last year. Now you pay him 200+ million, and you have guys on that roster who have been much better at their position for much longer and have not gotten paid. I’m very curious to see how Love looks out of the gate. I think this Eagles secondary is much improved, and I don’t see the Packers torching the Eagles like they would’ve had they met at the end of last season. On the other side of the ball, expect the Eagles to run it right down the Packers throats and hit some deep shots. AJ Brown is going to have a massive year. Add in that the public is all over Green Bay after what they saw at the end of last season, and the fact that the books got killed last night and need the Eagles here. Everything here says Phili. I’ve loved this play for weeks, and it feels like an even better spot now the way the last week has played out. Give me Phili all day laying less than a field goal. There are some 2’s out there, but we’ll call it 2.5 for grading purposes. Shouldn’t matter much as long as we’re below that key of 3. Best of luck!!

Official Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star Play (1% Bankroll Bet)