Author: Dylan Lieck | June 7, 2025 | 4:46 P.M. CST
Last Night’s Pick: Winner on Texas Longhorns +115 over Texas Tech. The Longhorns took a 10-0 lead, and cruised to their first ever softball National Title, which means we cruised to an easy winner as well. The market really agreed with me as well, with the Longhorns closing as high as a -140 favorite in some spots. Let’s try to keep the streak going tonight
Current Streak: 4
Tonight’s Best Bet:
The Indiana Fever take on the Chicago Sky for the 2nd time this season tonight in the United Center. The game was moved to the bigger arena (where the Bulls play) anticipating a packed house with Caitlin Clark coming to town. However, Caitlin’s injury has caused ticket prices to plummet, and it’s uncertain whether there will be much of a home court advantage for the Sky tonight. I actually do have a STRONG lean towards Indiana -3.5 in the game. The Fever absolutely anihilated the Sky in their first meeting. However, that meeting was in Indiana and Caitlin Clark was healthy. Now the Fever come in missing Clark and Sophie Cunningham (who also missed the first matchup). They actually had to sign a player to a hardship contract last week after they fell below the 10 active player minimum threshold. All that said, I still think the Fever are the superior team, even with Clark and Cunningham out. So strong lean to the Fever, but that’s not where we are going for our best bet. Instead, we’re going back to the well with some player props.
We’re going to go back to Aliyah Boston and take her to go OVER 13.5 points tonight. Boston comes into this contest averaging 15.6 ppg on the season. Now, in the 3 games Clark has been out, Boston’s production HAS dropped (she’s averaging just 12.3 PPG in that span). However, there are some other factors that have contributed to that, to where I believe there is actually some value on the OVER, despite her lack of scoring the last 3 outings. First off, Boston has a big issue with foul trouble. This is nothing new, but it’s really been bad the last 3 games. She’s committed 14 fouls over the course of those 3 outings (5, 5, & 4), and she has picked up her 3rd foul early in the 2nd quarter, as well as her fourth foul before the halfway mark of the 3rd quarter in ALL THREE GAMES. So, without a doubt she will need to do better than she has lately when it comes to staying out of foul trouble. On a positive note though, she does seem to be aware of it, as she is constantly talking to coaches following foul calls. She also got out of the way multiple times late in the game against the Mystics earlier this week to avoid committing her 5th foul in the 4th quarter. Doing that is beneficial to her and the Fever, because they really need her on the floor to win right now.
The second factor in our favor is that two of the last three games have come against the Washington Mystics. Each game against Washington Boston had just 5 shot attempts. In the other 5 games this season, she’s averaged over 12 shot attempts per game. She is currently shooting an incredibly high percentage this season (67.6%). If she does shoot (in terms of attempts) around her season average, that would give her 16 points (based on her season FG%). It’s quite possible if she DOES stay out of foul trouble, that she takes north of 13 shots. The first matchup against Chicago, Boston finished 8 for 12 with 19 points, 13 rebounds, and 5 blocks. She was dominant on the interior against Angel Reese and Camilla Cardosa. I expect nothing different tonight on the interior, largely because the Sky are delusional enough to think that Angel Reese can guard Aliyah Boston 1 on 1.
Lastly, I took a look at Boston’s poor outings this season (in which she went under this current point total). While Boston does have some down games, she often bounces back from a subpar game with a very good game (specifically in terms of scoring). She’s 2-0 to the over on this number following a game where she scored 10 points or less (she scored 10 last game against the Mystics). In those two games, she averaged 22 PPG (scoring 27 and 17 in each). Additionally, she’s also 2-0 to the over to that number (13.5 points) following a game that she takes 7 shots or less in a game. And, as mentioned previously, 2 of the 3 games she took just 5 shots came against the same team (the Washington Mystics). The only other game Boston struggled was the 3rd game of the season, and it came against the Atlanta Dream. She played just 23 minutes in that game; and while she is definitely prone to foul trouble, they NEED her in the game with Caitlin Clark still sidelined.
Overall, assuming Boston doesn’t get into foul trouble tonight, you are going to see her put up double digit shot attempts. And, you are going to see her have success in the paint against Reese and Cardosa. Let’s back Boston tonight OVER 13.5 points and keep this streak going.
Official Pick: Aliyah Boston OVER 13.5 Points
Play Rating: 2-Star
