MLB Early Picks (6/25/26)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 25, 2026 | 10:08 A.M. CST
Royals @ Rays (11:10 A.M. CST)
We’re going to look at an over in this spot. We’ve got Seth Lugo on the bump for the Royals, and the Rays will counter with a bullpen game, as they are starting reliever Casey Legumina. Neither pitcher jumps off the page at you as elite. Lugo comes in with a 3.69 ERA & a 1.35 WHIP. Legumina enters with a 3.45 ERA & a WHIP of 1.34. In his last 5 starts Lugo has surrendered 11 total runs over 26 and 2/3rds innings. But over those 5 games, the totals have been very high. There have been at least 10 total runs scored in each of Lugo’s last 5 starts. And, it’s not as though they’ve faced the greatest offenses in that sample: the Rangers twice, Cards, Twins, and Mariners. With the exception of the Cards, we’re looking at below average offenses.
The Rays offense hasn’t been great as of late, but they do seem to be trending in the right direction, scoring 5 in their last 2 games, and at least 4 in 5 of their last 6. We’re sitting at a total of 7.5, and these two teams have gone over that total in the first two games of this series (8 & 17). I specifically like where this Royals offense is trending. They were one of the worst offenses in baseball through the first 50 games. But, they’ve started to turn a corner the past month; specifically, the last 10 games. They’re averaging 6.4 runs over the last 10 games, putting up a total of 64 runs, including 3 games of double digit runs. I see this as a high scoring game, and I’m not sure why the total has come down with these two guys pitching against two offenses trending in the right direction.
Official Pick: OVER 7.5 (-125) | Play to 8 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
Mariners @ Pirates (11:35 A.M.)
We’re looking at the total in the first five for this one. Bryce Miller (3-1) takes the mound for the Mariners, and he has been absolutely elite this season. He’s surrendered just 7 total runs in 7 starts this season for Seattle, posting a 1.58 ERA and an absurd .70 WHIP. He’s thrown three, one-hitters in his seven starts. And, most importantly, he’s given the Mariners at least 5 innings in all of his starts. This Pirates offense has definitely been playing better as of late. They are coming off putting up 11 on this Mariners squad last night. However, they are very hit or miss. They tend to put up 3 runs or less, or put up a crooked number. I don’t see this lineup getting to Miller, who’s been absolutely tremendous so far this season. I would be shocked to see the Pirates put up more than 3 runs in this game, unless they get to the bullpen late.
On the other side, I’m not going to sit here and tell you Bubba Chandler is a great pitcher to back for an under. He’s 2-7 as a starter, with a 4.62 ERA & a 1.38 WHIP. However, he’s been much better in his last 3 starts. He has surrendered just 2 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts, coming against a couple pretty good offenses in the Rockies, Marlins, and Braves. Now, is he fixed? No. But I think Chandler can give us 5 good innings here and limit the damage to 2 or less runs. If he can do that, I’d be shocked to see Miller get hit for 3. So we’re going to go under 4.5 runs, even at the extra juice. I think this is going to be a low scoring game overall, but we’re going to dodge the bullpens entirely, as I think if the Pirates somehow do get to Miller early, it’s going to go over in the game anyways. So let’s not take the extra risk. Take the first 5 under 4.5 runs.
Official Pick: 1st 5 UNDER 4.5 (-120)
Play Rating: 2-Stars
