College Hoops Best Bets (1/15/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 15, 2025 | 4:29 P.M. CST

Last Night: 1-0 (Arizona/Baylor Over 147) | College Basketball Record: 19-5 (79.2%)

Best Bets Tonight:

1) Oklahoma -2 vs. Texas

Both teams come into this game DESPERATE for a conference win, as both sit winless in SEC play (both 0-3). Oklahoma had a phenomenal start to the season with 13 straight wins to open the year. They were ranked as high as top 10 in the country, but they’ve now dropped 3 consecutive games. Despite losing three straight, OU has some great wins on their schedule thus far. They have wins over Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan (all 3 of which are tournament teams). Additionally, the 3 losses the Sooners suffered were all at the hands of tournament teams as well, and two of the three came on the road. Alabama and Georgia (the two road losses) are teams with a combined record of 26-5. Their other loss came at home to 13-4 Texas A&M, a game the Sooners led by 9 at halftime, and very well should have won.

Texas on the other hand, comes in 11-5, also 0-3 in conference play. Despite having 11-wins overall and a decent record, the Longhorns played a very weak schedule in the non-conference. Moreover, the only teams ranked in the top 35 in the kenpom they’ve played, they lost to; they are 0-5 vs. the KP top 35. Their best win, according to KenPom, was a win over St. Joseph’s (who is ranked 91st in KP). Every single time the Longhorns have stepped up in class, they’ve lost. And to be honest, only one of those games was remotely close. They lost to Ohio State & UCONN in the non-conference & neither game did the Longhorns really compete. Their first conference opponent was Texas A&M on the road, who they lost to by 20. The final score against Auburn looks like the game was close, but Auburn led by 20 late in the second half and took their foot off the gas entirely, allowing UT to comeback and make that score look closer than the game actually was; Texas was DOMINATED in that game for 34 of the 40 minutes in their own building. They then got to play Tennessee at home the next time out; and they got Tennessee after a 30+ point loss for the Vols where their confidence was at an all-time low. Texas had every opportunity to win the game as Tennessee could not make a jump shot to save their life early in the game. But of course, the Longhorns lack of late game execution cost them the win.

Lastly, we look at the factors beyond the player matchups here. This game is being played in Norman. And while the Sooners don’t have the greatest home court advantage in college basketball, students should be back on campus at this time and we should see the arena sold out for what is a very important game for their team (not to mention it’s a rivalry game). Additionally, when we look at the coaching matchup, there’s a DISTINCT advantage to Oklahoma. Rodney Terry is easily the worst coach in the SEC, and quite possibly in the entire group of teams throughout Power 4 conferences. He has his job, solely due to Chris Beard scandal, and the Horns have gotten worse each year since then. On the other side, Porter Mosure is one of the more underrated coaches in the country. I believe it’s only a matter of time before he has Oklahoma competing for conference titles. He’s obviously been to a final four with Loyola Chicago, and his in game coaching is no match for Rodney Terry. I love everything about this matchup, as Texas will rely solely on 1v1 & high pick and roll, while OU will be running good offense and sets to get guys great looks.

Official Pick No. 1: Oklahoma Sooners -2

Play Rating: 2-Star

2) Davidson -1 vs. La Salle

We’re going to look to fade a team who overperformed over the weekend. The Explorers came into the weekend 8-7, facing a St. Bonnies team on their home floor; a team that had been very good so far this season. But La Salle was able to hang in there punch for punch with the Wolves of St. Bonaventure, taking them to OT. Late in the game the Bonnies had the ball and a 2 point lead, and their starting PG missed a WIDE OPEN layup, as well as an easy tip in off that miss to give the Bonnies a 4-point lead, and likely end the game. La Salle gathered the rebound and held for one shot, trailing by two. After the ball was poked out of the hands of guard Deuce Jones’ hands, the Explorers were forced to call timeout with just 4.1 seconds remaining. Out of the timeout a busted play resulted in the ball finding Jones again, and Jones threw up a running, one footed three pointer that somehow banked in at the buzzer, to give La Salle the upset victory over the Bonnies.

Diving back into the score of that game, La Salle really out performed their season long metrics. They shot 39% from the three point line, making a total of 13 threes (including the game winner). Heading into that game, the Exploreres were 250th in the country making less than 33% of their threes on the season. Additionally, La Salle does a good job taking care of the basketball (55th in country in TO% coming into that game). However, they took it to another level vs. the Wolves, as they turned it over just 6 times the ENTIRE game, and that included a 5 minute overtime period. They were also outside the top 250 in the country in TO% forced, and yet they were able to put up 27 points off TO’s in this game. So, overall point being, this team did a lot of things they don’t normally do. Yet, they still needed a running, one-footed, banked three pointer at the buzzer to beat St. Bonaventure. And while the Bonnies are a good team, they aren’t anything SPECIAL, and probably played their worst defensive game of the season.

With all that said, we now have this team who clearly overperformed last time out, coming off an emotional win, as a huge underdog. Now they go back home, and they are taking on a very disciplined Davidson team, but not one that you’re going to get excited to play against. Davidson plays very boring basketball. They want to play at a very slow pace (248th in adjusted tempo). They are going to make this a slow, grinded out game; they’re going to run their offense, run the clock and get great looks. They don’t turn the ball over (top 25 in country in TO%) and they shoot the ball at a high percentage overall and from three. La Salle is going to try to play fast and speed the tempo up, but it’s much easier to slow a team down than it is to speed them up. Not to mention this is a huge mismatch in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency. Davidson comes in as a top 85 offense (out of 334 teams), where as La Salle is outside the top 175 in defensive efficiency. I expect Davidson to have significant success on offense. And, while Davidson is not great defensively (outside top 180 in defensive efficiency), I’m not sure this La Salle team has enough to outperform expectations for a second consecutive games, especially off that emotional high. Let’s roll with Davidson here at a cheap price.

Official Pick No. 2: Davidson -1

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops Best Bet (1/14/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 14, 2025 | 5:55 P.M. CST

College Basketball Season Record: 18-5

Best Bet Tonight:

• Baylor Bears @ Arizona Wildcats OVER 147 (-110)

• Summary: This game features two teams trending up in the Big 12. Arizona has had a rollercoaster year so far in Tommy Lloyd’s 4th season. The Wildcats had their worst start since Lloyd took over this program back in 2021, going 4-5 through their first 9 games. This included losses to two teams in the Cat’s new conference (Big 12). Fortunately for Arizona, those games came in a tournament early in the season, thus neither loss counted towards conference play. Since Big 12 play officially tipped off, Arizona is a perfect 4-0, and they’ve now won 6 consecutive games overall. It feels like they’ve steadied the ship at last. Baylor had a similar start, although they did not get in as big of a hole as Arizona did. The Bears were 5-3 through their first 8 games. However, they’ve won 6 of their last 7 games, with their lone loss coming on the road against the #3 ranked Iowa State Cyclones.

• Thus both teams come in playing good basketball, and especially playing good on the offensive end. Both teams come in ranked in the top 20 in Offensive Efficiency (Baylor 15th, Arizona 17th). Additionally, both come in ranked outside the top 25 in the country in Defensive Efficiency. Now neither team is BAD defensively, but they are certainly not elite (Baylor 26th, Arizona 40th). So we have two teams coming in playing good basketball, both of which are very talented on the offensive end of the floor, but have struggled to fully put it together on the defensive end.

• When you look at the pace of play Baylor likes to slow it down much more than Arizona. The Bears play at a a pace in the bottom 1/3rd of the country, while Arizona plays at a very fast pace (56th in country in adjusted tempo). Arizona especially likes to push the pace at home. In fact, the last 4 home games the Wildcats have played, the games have averaged 164.2 points, which is far beyond the number we need tonight (147). Although Baylor does like to play at a slow pace on both sides, they are much more likely to morph to their opponents’ tempo than Arizona is, especially on the road. I believe the Bears are going to run with the Wildcats tonight and push the tempo. They certainly have the talent & athletes to do so with VJ Edgecombe and Jeremy Roach. I see this as a very up tempo game and possibly turning into a shootout with the two sides trading buckets late.

• Let’s Roll with the OVER tonight. It’s come down a touch, which is weird to me. I would think it has to do with Baylor’s pace of play, but that stat is skewed based on opponents and location of play. Take the best of the number, but 147 is still out there.

Official Pick: Baylor @ Arizona OVER 147 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Stars

NFL Playoff Best Bets: Round 1 (1/11/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 11, 2025 | 12:02 A.M. CST

Best Bet 2-Team, 6.5 Point Teaser: Baltimore Ravens -3 & Buffalo Bills -3

• I don’t normally like giving out a -120 bet unless I feel there’s a significant edge (obviously you have to pick at a higher rate at 20% juice). However, I think this is the best bet on the board in round 1 that’s going to be a legitimate non-sweat. Let’s dive into each of the two picks:

Ravens -3 vs. Steelers:

Let’s start with the Baltimore Ravens. Look the Pittsburgh Steelers have been REELING down the stretch. My favorite thing is to bet is when my in-season projections from weeks prior align with a pick that I like currently; when I get that combo it usually bodes very well. Back-to-back wins over the Bengals & Browns put the Steelers at 10-3, but it was clear that this Steelers team was much worse than their record indicated. Not only had Pittsburgh won multiple games that they did not deserve to win, but their supposedly ELITE defense got shredded by the Joe Burrow & the Bengals. The next game that same defense gave up 300 yards to the Browns and Jameis Winston and only won the game by margin due to Famous Jameis turnovers.

Looking at their last four games I predicted the Steelers would finish the season 0-4, MAYBE 1-3. And that’s exactly what they did. They lost 4 consecutive games to end the regular season. The defense looked average in those 4 games and the offense looked putrid, especially with George Pickens out. Even with Pickens back, in a MUST WIN game to avoid dropping from the 5 seed to the 6 seed (difference between going to Houston and going to Baltimore) playing against arguably the WORST defense in the league in the Cincinnati Bengals, AT HOME, that same Steelers offense mustered just 17 points. And honestly, 17 points gives them more credit than they deserve. The Steelers finished the game at 3.4 yards per pass, 3.2 yards per rush, and a horrific 3.3 yards per play. It was a spot that if you have an offense they WILL show up, and they didn’t.

Then you look at the fact that the Steelers also PLAYED the Ravens in one of their four final games. That was a game that if Pittsburgh won they controlled the division and a path to a home playoff game. The Ravens won by 17 points. They outgained the Steelers by over 100 total yards, and by 1.5 yards per play. That vaunted Steeler’s defense allowed Lamar Jackson and company to average nearly 7 yards per play in not great weather. And, it was a balanced attack.

While the Steelers finished the season with 4 consecutive losses, the Ravens finished with 4 consecutive wins. These are two teams headed in complete opposite directions. But what really impressed me the last 4 games was the Baltimore Ravens defense. This was a secondary that was NOT GOOD for most of the season, despite having an elite run defense. And yet the final 4 games the Ravens were awesome on the defensive side. As a whole, they gave up less than 11 points per game the last 4 outings. Now, they did play some of the bottom offenses in the league, but you have to take into account that offenses like that we’re torching this Ravens secondary early in the season. AND, you have to take into account that this Pittsburgh offense IS ALSO A BOTTOM OFFENSE. Even if the Ravens were to revert back to some of their previous woes, I’m not sure this Steelers offense has the ability to take advantage of it. Even in the first matchup in Pittsburgh earlier this season, a matchup won by the Steelers (18-16), Pittsburgh averaged just 4.1 yards per play and they were outgained by the Ravens by 2.0 yards per play. Russell Wilson threw for just 205 yards and a INT, zero TDs. They won the game due to Ravens mistakes (12 penalties and 3 TO’s). In my opinion, that’s the ONLY way the Steelers keep this REMOTELY close: the Ravens would have to have won of their worst offensive outings of the season, while the Steelers would have to play one of their BEST. I just don’t see it happening. And that’s why we’re going to tease this to the key of 3.

Part 2: Bills -3 vs. Broncos

The Broncos are a great story this season. They had a bottom five defense in the NFL last season; we saw them give up 70 points to the Miami Dolphins early in the 2023 campaign. And through the first half of the year, they had become one of the leagues TOP defenses. You had the worst trade in NFL history, with Denver giving Russell Wilson that massive contract, and yet he was as bad as you could be last season. They get a rookie QB coming in, who nobody thought was any good, and he ends the year likely second in OROY voting. These things all contributed to the Broncos making the playoffs for the first team in a half decade. Great for Bo Nix, and Sean Payton, and all the Denver fans. Unfortunately their run will come to an end Sunday, as they get matched up with who I believe is the SB favorite in the Buffalo Bills

This Bills team is on an absolute mission this year. Josh Allen IS the MVP (and he WILL win the award). There’s been absolutely nobody better in the entire NFL this year. Allen has carried a team with no-name receivers (at least before they added Amari Cooper). But this Bills team is more than that. Joe Brady has developed a very balanced offense featuring James Cook out of the backfield, and mixing in lots of Josh Allen runs. And that’s all great, before adding in the home field advantage. This is by far the toughest place in the NFL to play when it comes playoff time. That place is going to be filled and absolutely rocking from the jump. The Bills were a perfect 8-0 at home this season, and they beat teams much better than the Denver Broncos.

Overall, it’s just an impossible spot for a rookie QB and an overachieving team. They may have had a shot against the Houston Texans. Possibly even the Baltimore Ravens if the weather held up and no Zay Flowers. But this Broncos team has no shot of keeping this close. I was considering laying the entire 9.5 but I believe for purposes of avoiding a backdoor sweat, we’re just going to make this leg two of the teaser and ride with the Bills -3.

Official Pick: Ravens -3 | Bills -3 (-120)

Play Rating: 2-Stars

CFP Orange Bowl Semi Final Best Bet (1/9/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 9, 2025 | 9:45 A.M. CST

Best Bet:

• Notre Dame PK vs. Penn State

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops Best Bets (1/8/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 8, 2025 | 4:27 P.M. CST

Last Night’s Wagers: 2-0

Tonight’s Best Bets:

1) Villanova PK vs. UCONN

2) Arkansas -3.5 vs. Ole Miss

Both Plays: 2-Stars

College Hoops Best Bets (1/7/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 7, 2025 | 3:37 P.M. CST

Best Bets:

1) Florida -3.5 vs. Tennessee

2) Georgia +1.5 vs. Kentucky

Both Plays: 2-Stars

NFL Best Bet Sunday Games (1/5/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 4, 2024 | 11:15 P.M. CST

Best Bet: 2-Team, 6 Point Teaser (Chargers -.5 | Seahawks -1)

• Week 18 in the modern day NFL is all about identifying which teams are motivated to win and which teams are not. Sometimes it’s simple, where teams are sitting their starters. Other times, you have to identify whether teams are going to try to win when it’s actually advantageous for them to lose.

• Chargers -6.5 to -.5 vs Raiders: Yes, the Chargers have already clinched a playoff birth heading into the final week. However, with the results of the Bengals/Steelers game in, we now know EXACTLY what the Chargers are playing for. If Los Angeles LOSES to the Raiders tomorrow, the Chargers will fall to the 6 seed, which means they would be going on the road to Baltimore to play the AFC North Champion Ravens. Keep in mind, the Chargers already played the Ravens once this year, and it was all Baltimore (and that game was in L.A.) On the other hand, if the Chargers win tomorrow, they will be locked into the #5 seed, which would in turn send them to HOUSTON to play the Texans. The Texans have been in a landslide the past month, with CJ Stroud continuing to struggle, along with serious health concerns on both the OL and in the wide receiver room. Basically, my point is that playing the Texans indoors, compared to playing at Baltimore in cold weather for a west coast team is a MASSIVE difference. So the Chargers will be very motivated here. On the other hand, it’s possible Antonio Pierce knows he’s fired, in which case he will be trying to win this game for his guys. However, the Raiders have no trouble losing games they’re trying to win. They lost 10-straight during the season, and their only wins in the past 14 weeks came against Mac Jones and the 4-win Jaguars and Spencer Rattler who lost every game he’s started for the Saints (0-6). So even if the Raiders come in motivated to win here (which they SHOULD NOT BE because it hurts their draft position), they just don’t have enough to compete with a locked in Chargers team, who’s playing for something. I thought this line was too low.

• Seahawks -7 to -1 @ Rams: The Seahawks have nothing to play for in terms of playoff positioning, and the Rams do. With a loss and a Bucs win (TB is a 13 point favorite tomorrow vs. Saints), the Rams would drop to the #4 seed and would square off with the loser of the Vikings/Lions Sunday Night matchup. Meaning, a loss could result in playing a 14-win team rather than a 10 or 11 win team. Still the Rams will be sitting all their major offensive weapons in this game, including starting QB Matthew Stafford. Jimmy G will be getting the nod at QB. Now Seattle has plenty of incentives to fill, which is partially why I like the Seahawks here. Geno Smith, particularly, has a shot to make up to six million bucks in bonuses; and, one of those bonuses is a 2 million dollar bump for winning 10-games. So Geno has every incentive in the world to go out and play his best game of the season, even though they have no shot at the post-season. It also gives head coach Mike McDonald a chance to get to 10-wins in his first season as head coach in Seattle. Although making the playoffs was likely his goal, 10-wins in the NFL in your first year is without a doubt a success. With that motivation and the Rams sitting the majority of their key guys, I don’t see how LA wins this game. It would take significant give up by that Seattle defense. I like the Seahawks here so that’s leg 2

Official Pick: Chargers -.5 | Seahawks -1 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

Best Bet NFL Afternoon/Sunday Night Football Teaser (12/29/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 29, 2024 | 1:52 P.M. CST

Top Teaser of the Week: Green Bay Packers +7 | Atlanta Falcons +10.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

Best Bet CFP Round 1 (12/21/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 21, 2024 | 1:37 A.M. CST

Best Bet CFP Saturday Games: 2-Team, 6 Point Teaser: Penn State -2 | Ohio State -1

We’re going to go with a two team ML Parlay and take two big favorites. I normally hate doing teasers in CFB, but in this case, it’s worth it. I make the probability of Ohio State winning over 87% and Penn State 93%. Barring major injuries we’re going to see two blowouts. If you want to turn this into a ML parlay and throw Texas in there, you would actually get plus money. I’m going with the teaser, but BOTH are good options.

Official Pick: Penn State -2 | Ohio State -1 (2-Team, 6 Point Teaser)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Football Bowl Game Best Bets: Alamo Bowl, Top Totals, & More (12/21/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 21, 2024 | 1:11 P.M. CST

Here I’m going to give my best 4 Bowl Bets of the next few weeks.

Bowl Game BEST BETS (Sides)

• Colorado -3 vs. BYU | Play Rating: 2-Star

• Rutgers +7 vs. K-State | Play Rating: 2-Star

Bowl Game Best Bets (Totals)

• UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina OVER 56.5 | 2-Star

• Iowa State vs. Miami OVER 55.5 | 2-Star

College Basketball Best Bets (12/14/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 14, 2024 | 8:57 A.M. CST

Current Record: 13-3 (81.3%)

Best Bets Today:

1) Dayton +1.5 vs. Marquette: This is a pure fade of Marquette playing another true road game. The one true road game they played they were a 7 point dog at Iowa State and got pounded. Dayton has an underrated home court advantage. The public will be all over Marquette, and Dayton has a solid squad this year. They competed with some good teams in Maui, and they will pull the outright upset today.

2) Gonzaga vs. UCONN OVER 151.5: Gonzaga is one of the most up tempo teams in the country and they shoot an absurd number of threes. Additionally, UCONN’s defense has been porous so far this season, and I believe Gonzaga will exploit that. Both teams are very good shooting teams: UCONN is top 10 in eFG% and Gonzaga is top 70 as well. There’s a good chance this turns into an up tempo game because UCONN will often morph to it’s opponents style and the Zags want to get up and down.

3) Depaul -3.5 vs. Wichita State: Wichita State comes into this game with just 1 loss this season, but they’ve played one of the easier schedules in the country. They beat a bad St. Louis team easily in the Hall of Fame Classic, and followed it up with a win over a bottom 5 Big 10 team in Minnesota, and needed OT to beat them. The one team they played with a pulse was Florida, and the Gators DESTROYED them 88-51. Depaul hasn’t been great by any means, but the amount they’ve improved this year under first year head coach Chris Holtman is significant. They started the season 8-0, but dropped their last two games to Texas Tech and Providence. Although Tech did beat them easily, the Providence game went to overtime. And that Providence team is nothing to laugh at. This is a good bounce back spot for Depaul. They’re playing at home, and I think they get it done laying a short number. This will be a big win for Holtman and company. Take Depaul and lay the 3.5

All Plays: 2-Star

College Basketball Best Bet (12/12/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 12, 2024 | 3:04 P.M. CST

Best Bet: Iowa Hawkeyes +5.5 vs. Iowa State Cyclones

So we’re going to look to the home dog in the Iowa Hawkeyes in this rivalry tonight. This is a rivalry that has largely been dominated by the HOME team in the past decade. In fact there’s only been 2 OUTRIGHT road victories between these two teams the last 10 times the two squared off. The last time Iowa State came to Carver-Hawkeye Arena was back in 2022, when Iowa State came in 7-1 (just as they do tonight), ranked 20th in the country; they lost that game by 19 points.

Now, while Iowa was actually a short favorite in that game, it’s a VERY similar spot here. Iowa has been very good under Fran McCaffrey at home. They have a strong home court advantage, and they seem to shoot better in their own building. And boy can this Iowa team shoot it. They have 6 guys on the team who are shooting 35% or better on the season (in the rotation). And that’s not including one of their best players in Payton Sandfort. Sandfort is off to a rough start this season, shooting under 32% from beyond the arc. This is a kid who has traditionally shot in the 36-37% range over the course of his career. Sandfort is a senior, and this could possibly be his final time playing in the Cy-Hawk Rivalry. It really wouldn’t surprise me if this ended up being a breakout game for him.

We’ve seen money on the over in this one as well, as both teams rank in the top 90 in adjusted tempo. Iowa plays EXTREMELY fast, coming in at 22nd in the country in adjusted tempo. Iowa State’s is lower because they make teams play very long possessions defensively. However, from an offensive perspective they get up and down as much as anyone. If Iowa is hitting threes early, this could easily become a shootout. I wanted to look to the over here, but once this hit 161 it was hard to make a case. That number is right about where it should be. At 159 (the open) I could buy it. Not at our current price. One good thing, however, is that if Iowa is going to win this game, it’s going to need to be that up and down, high scoring game. If this game goes under the total, by more than 10 points, that’s how ISU wins this by quite a large number. Therefore, I like that we’ve seen sharp money come in on the OVER to push this out to 162 in some spots. It supports the hypothesis that Iowa is going to be the pro side in this one.

Lastly, I looked into TJ Otzleberger’s time at Iowa State, and although he’s a PHENOMENAL coach and I’m a big fan of his, the Cyclones have really struggled to win on the road under Otz. And, when they have won on the road, it’s very seldom by margin. In fact, the past 3 seasons (Otzelberger took over in 2021 at the start of that span), Iowa State is just 11-19 straight up on the road (36.7%). Of those 11 wins, ONLY THREE have come by more than 6 or more points (which is what they will need to win by tonight to cover). Moreover, 2 of those 3 times they indeed DID win by 6+ they were actually underdogs. So, only once in TJ Otzelbergers THREE FULL SEASONS have the Cyclones covered a number this big on the road. I like those odds. Lastly, Iowa hasn’t been a dog at home all that often over the past couple seasons. But if you go back to 2010 Iowa has been a home dog 34 times; they are 20-13-1 ATS (60.6% cover rate) and 15-19 SU (and keep in mind that’s as a DOG). So they’ve been VERY good at home in the past 15 years, and I expect nothing less tonight. Take the points with the home dog, as I believe the #3 Cyclones may be going down tonight in Des Moines.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Iowa +5.5

PLAY RATING: 2-Star

College Basketball Best Bet (12/10/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 10, 2024 | 6:37 P.M. CST

Current Record: 12-2 (85.7%, +19.6 Units)

Best Bet: Arkansas +4.5 vs. Michigan

We’re going with the home dog tonight (Shocker). I do really like this Michigan team, and they have showed that they are legitimate contender in the Big 10. However, we’ve reached peak market on Michigan here, laying more than 4 points in a tough road game against a talented team. Michigan has talent as well, and likely a coaching advantage (Dusty May is phenomenal), but this number is too high. As good as they’ve looked the last couple weeks, their first two conference games were both decided by less than this number. They very well could’ve lost AT HOME to Iowa just a few days ago. Now they play a less meaningful game on a neutral floor in this spot. Additionally, this game IS meaningful to Arkansas as they need a signature win. They have not beaten a good team yet this year, and Cal is looking for that big time victory to get this season going. I believe they are going to treat this game as a big one, and I think they will be ready to go. I believe Arkansas not only covers this number, but wins the game outright. We take the points here in what should be a fun, close game, and hopefully we don’t even need them and the Hogs can win it on the floor. Take the 4.5 with Arkansas and let’s keep the streak going.

Official Play: Arkansas +4.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Basketball Best Bet (12/6/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 6, 2024 | 10:35 P.M. CST

Current Record: 11-2

Best Bet: Northwestern +3.5 vs. Illinois

We’re backing the home team here playing against a completely newly rebuilt Illinois team playing in their first conference road game. This is a hostile environment for a team that has absolutely zero chemistry. Additionally, NW needs this game like blood after a terrible loss to Iowa just a few days ago. NW was up 2 when Iowa hit a 35 footer at the buzzer to steal the game from the Wildcats. It was a brutal beat, and you can believe they are going to be motivated to show up here. This is a gritty bunch with some veteran guys who have been at NW a couple years. Let’s back the WILDCATS here plus the points, and sprinkle a little on the ML if you are inclined to, as we have a LIVE DOG here.

Official Play: Northwestern +3.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

NFL Best Bet Thursday Night Football (12/5/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 5, 2024 | 3:45 P.M. CST

TNF Game: Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

• LINE: Lions -3 | Total: 53

Best Bet:

So full disclosure I got this at a better number than currently available, but I still believe there’s value at the current price. And, while I don’t normally like taking overs in divisional matchups, let alone a second matchup of the season, that’s exactly what we’re going to do here. These two teams come into this game with 2 of the BEST offenses in the league when fully healthy. Thankfully for Packers fans, Jordan Love is finally that: healthy. The Packers come into this game with their full complement of weapons on the offensive side of the ball. On the other side, the Lions have been healthy for the most part on the offensive side of the ball for the entire season. Hence why they’ve bolstered the second most efficient offense in football through 13 weeks.

What isn’t healthy about these two teams is their DEFENSES. Both defenses are extremely banged up, especially the Lions. And, while there may be some familiarity between the teams, it’s not enough to overcome the bevy of injuries on both teams defenses. We’ll start with the Packers who are down their best secondary piece for another week in Jaire Alexander. He’s their lockdown corner, and with him out they will be very thin in the secondary vs these weapons. Then add in Corey Ballentine (CB) and Edgerrin Cooper (LB) both out as well. The Packers are going to have trouble keeping this Lions pass game in check. While sometimes the Lions lean on the run game, especially early in games, I believe in this spot we see a very balanced attack from the jump

The other defense is currently being held together by scotch tape and Elmer’s glue. I mean there are injuries across the board for the Lions. They had to sign multiple guys this week just to be able to field a roster out there tonight. Obviously they lost Aidan Hutchinson multiple weeks prior to this game, and then Alex Anzelone a few weeks later. Those two are massive losses that will show up here, in both pressuring the QB, as well as in stopping the run. Then you add in three new injuries ALL to that defensive line in DJ Reader, Joshua Paschal, & Levi Onwuzurike. They are down to 3rd string guys on that DL. Good luck in short yardage situations trying to stop Josh Jacobs, not to mention the difficulty this defense will have getting pressure on Jordan Love.

When you look at this number in the market, it’s extremely high, but it’s that high for a reason. If you don’t believe me that the injuries are THAT significant think about this. The line when Detroit played AT Green Bay in BAD WEATHER a few weeks back was Detroit -3.5. We are currently sitting at The Lions -3 AT HOME. What that means is on a neutral field Detroit is probably around 6 point favorite if this game is played 4 weeks ago. Now on a neutral field this line tells us that it’s basically a PICK EM! That’s ABSURD! And the reasoning is ENTIRELY because of the Lions defense. So the defensive injuries for Detroit are so large that they have legitimately swung the line 6 points from what previously thought. Maybe even 7 given how good Detroit has been this year. Interestingly, if you look at these teams when healthy, the power numbers put Detroit as a much bigger favorite than 3 points (as I just said), yet there has been NO professional support for the Lions in the market. Why? Because nobody wants to back that defense in its current form.

I don’t even think either offense has to bring their “A” games tonight to put up 28+ points, which is roughly what we’re going to need from each to go over this total. As much as I dislike overs in primetime games, as well as in divisional games, in this SPECIFIC SPOT, this is too good of a play to pass up. We’re going to take the LIONS/PACKERS OVER 53 (good to 53.5)

Official Play: Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions OVER 53 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Basketball Phenomenal Start

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 3, 2024 | 10:49 P.M. CST

Current Record: 11-1

Unbelievable start to college basketball! I won’t be posting tons of plays the next two weeks but we will hopefully get a few out here and there. Best of luck and don’t force anything!

NFL Best Bets (12/1/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 1, 2024 | 1:33 A.M. CST

Best Bets: Both 2 Units

1) Two Team Teaser: Pittsburgh Steelers +9 | Washington Commanders PK

2) Minnesota Vikings -3 (-120) vs. Arizona Cardinals

Best Bets College Football (11/30/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 30, 2024 | 4:39 A.M. CST

Best Bet #1: 2 Team Teaser = Notre Dame -1 vs. USC | Arizona State -2 vs. Arizona

I traditionally HATE college football teasers. Usually the variance in CFB makes them negative EV plays. However, with how some of these big favorites have trended I found some value in a specific one here. The first team is Notre Dame. This is actually the team I like the best to win outright. I just don’t see a world in which USC wins the game outright. If Miller Moss was still starting for the Trojans, this is a game I would completely stay away from. However, for some reason Lincoln Riley decided to make a QB change a couple weeks back. Jayden Maiava just is not a good QB. And I think his inability to pass the ball will be a big problem for USC. You just cannot be one dimensional against Notre Dame’s Defense. I like ND to win this outright, however they rarely blow out USC in this rivalry at the Rose Bowl. So that’s partially why I like taking this down to -1. I did give out ND -7 on the podcast, but I think winning outright is an absolute LOCK here. ND has much more to play for as well.

On the other side, Arizona State is a team that is peaking at the right time. They are playing to essentially go to the Big 12 Title game. It’s not a fully win and in scenario, but it’s close. And they are facing the team that I deem the second worst team in the conference in Arizona. Yes, it’s a rivalry, but I just would be very surprised to see this be an outright upset. I don’t really love laying 8, though, with a team like ASU who has trouble winning by margin. I could see the backdoor being open late with that number.

So we’re going to tease those two teams for our first best bet. I love this play. Barring big upset, we should cash this relatively easily. There’s a decent chance both cover the actual number.

Official Play: ND -1 | Arizona State -2

Play Rating: 2-Star

Best Bet #2 (Total of the Week): Kansas @ Baylor OVER 61

I’m not going to break this one down in depth because I already did so on the podcast. If you want a full breakdown, checkout my pick there, as I explain why I LOVE this game to be a shootout. Give me the OVER here for best bet number 2

Official Play: Kansas @ Baylor OVER 61

Play Rating: 2-Star

Best Bet Friday Night: College Football LIVE DOG!! (11/29/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 29, 2024 | 4:47 P.M. CST

Best Bet: Utah Utes +10 @ Central Florida Knights

We’re going to take the Utah Utes +10 here on the road against the UCF Knights. Look this line is just wrong in my opinion. Not that I think Utah is good WHATSOEVER, but this Central Florida team is horrible. When you have two terrible teams playing each other, you try to find an edge on which team may be more motivated. Especially in a spot like this where technically neither team has anything to play for, with both coming in 4-7. If you have followed the Utah Utes at all you’d know that Kyle Whittingham is BELOVED in that community and he’s been their guy for decades. However, at his age and after this disaster of a season there’s real talk that this will be his final game as the Utah head coach. There are rumors wirling that he will retire after the end of this game. That’s a HUGE motivating factor to his players who LOVE playing for him.

Meanwhile, UCF has been one of the biggest disappoinments in the country after a 4-0 start. Add in the fact that Gus Malzan is known to rub his guys the wrong way. Additionally, there is only ONE game all year UCF has covered this number in conference play and it was against the 2nd worst team in the conference, the Arizona Wildcats. This Utah team still has talent defensively, and they haven’t been blown out every game. They’ve been very competitive in a number of spots, especially in more meaningful games (think back to the BYU game where they had the game won and were robbed).

So this spot is great for Utah, and this line is just off. We’re taking the points and we’re going to sprinkle on the ML too because I think Utah is GOING TO WIN THIS GAME OUTRIGHT

Official Pick: Utah +10 | Utah +300

Play Rating: 4-Star | 1 unit on ML

College Basketball Best Bet (11/29/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 29, 2024 | 2:32 P.M. CST

CBB Overall Record: 11-1 (91.7%, +19.8 Units)

Best Bet: Purdue -2 vs. Ole Miss

Play Rating: 2-Star