College Hoops Best Bet (1/30/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 30, 2025 | 7:39 A.M.

Best Bet: Nebraska +4.5 vs. Illinois

Man has this Nebraska program taken a step back this year. Last season Fred Hoiberg really had the Huskers trending in the right direction. After 3 straight losing seasons to start his tenure in Lincoln, Hoiberg won 16 games in year 4, finishing .500 (16-16) on the season. Then last year, Hoiberg led the Huskers to the an incredible year, as they finished 23-11, which was the most wins in a single season for a Nebraska team since 1990. They finished 3rd in the Big 10 & reached the NCAA tournament for the first time in over a decade. While this season started off very well, the Huskers have gone on a BIG losing streak. And, while 12-8 isn’t a disastrous start to the season, that along with 2-7 in the conference sure won’t get you to the NCAA tournament. And yet, we’re going to back them here tonight.

Even though the Huskers have lost seven straight, I still have found some positives when watching this team play. Hoiberg sure hasn’t lost the locker room, they just aren’t executing at the level they were early in the season. Now, they have shown they can play with some really good teams. They have wins on the road at a ranked Creighton team (one of the toughest spots to play in the country), at home over a top 15 UCLA team, and a neutral floor beatdown of Indiana. Even the road losses in conference don’t look bad: @ Michigan State, @ Purdue, @ Wisconsin - those are all games that most teams in the Big 10 WOULD lose. So, we know that this team plays hard, they have the ability to beat good teams, and they’re playing at home, where traditionally they’ve been very good (although they’ve lost two straight).

My issue with this number on Nebraska’s home court, is this: if Illinois was playing really good basketball, like they were early in the season, I would understand this getting bet up from 3.5 to 4.5. But to get to 4.5 in their current form? I just can’t get to that number. I make this Illinois -1.5. This Fighting Illini team has been trending down lately, just as Nebraska has. They’ve lost 3 of their last 5 and 2 of their last 3. That stretch includes a 21 point HOME loss to Maryland.

What makes this Illinois team so hot/cold is that they rely HEAVILY on the three-point shot. 47.6% of their TOTAL field goal attempts are threes (22nd in country), while 34.6% of their total production comes from the three point shot (103rd in country). Yet, despite shooting that many triples, they are a terrible three-point shooting team. They shoot below 32% from beyond the arc on the season; that’s 262nd in country, and that’s out of 364 teams. Because of this reliance beyond the arc, they often have to rely on their defense and on offensive rebounding to stay in games when their threes aren’t falling (which is usually). The problem with this matchup for Illinois is that Nebraska is excellent at keeping opposing teams off the offensive glass (top 60 in country, 27.4% ORB%). So, if Nebraska is able to keep the Fighting Illini off the glass (which I believe they will be able to), they should have a great shot to stay in this game. Additionally, the Illini defense has not been as good over the past couple games. Last time out, they took on Northwestern, who came into that game outside the top 80 in offensive efficiency (one of worst in Big 10) while also playing at one of the slowest paces in the country. And yet, NW was able to put up 74 on that Illini defense. The Wildcats hit a whopping 10 threes in that game, and shot 40% from three in the game. The Illini controlled the entire game, but it wasn’t because of elite defense. The two games prior to that outing, the Illini gave up 91 on their home floor and 80 on the road at Michigan State (who is far from an offensive juggernaut).

With all that said: the way the Illini defense is trending, the fact that they rely heavily on the offensive glass where Nebraska is great, and the fact that we’re CATCHING 4.5 points at home in a very tough venue to play (yes it’s become very good HC advantage in Lincoln) - we’re going to go with the home dog here. Plus, this really is Nebraska’s season. If they can’t get a quad one win here, and they drop to 2-8 in conference play, they can basically kiss the NCAA Tournament goodbye tonight. They MUST win this game to stay in the mix. They are far from out of the fight, but they know they will be SEVERELY wounded with a loss tonight. Meanwhile, while this Illinois team is struggling, they won’t have the same desperation tonight, on the road, taking on an unranked team who’s on a 6-game losing streak (and Illinois is still ranked in the top 20, and it’s wild what that number next to your name will do for you mentally).

Official Pick: Nebraska +4.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops Best Bet (1/29/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 29, 2025 | 4:33 P.M.

Overall Record: 24-10 (70.6%)

Best Bet Tonight: West Virginia +9.5 vs. Houston

This West Virginia team has had a rollercoaster season so far. They started off the year hot in the Battle 4 Atlantis, upsetting two top 25 teams in #24 Arizona and #3 Gonzaga. All signs pointed towards this team being a legitimate contender in the Big 12 at that point. Then their best player, Drake transfer Tucker Devries, went down with an injury (which is likely season ending). At that point, the Mountaineers season looked all but lost. However, after the loss of Devries, the Mountaineers rattled off 5 straight victories, including a 2-0 start to Big 12 play, and they went INTO Fogg Allen Fieldhouse and beat the #7 Jayhawks on the road. At that point, it felt like this WVU team would still be a force to be reckoned with in this conference, despite not having Devries. However, since that time they’re just 2-4, with one of those wins coming against Colorado, a team that is winless (0-9) in Big 12 play.

So why are we backing them here in this spot? Well, a couple of reasons. Number one, this team still has talent and they’ve shown they can play with some of the top teams in the country on a given night. In fact, they’ve really played up and down to the their competition a lot of this season. You look at that win at Kansas as one positive datapoint. But, then you see they also beat #2 Iowa State in Morgantown just three games ago. This team clearly still has fight left in them, and they’ve shown the ability to pull the big upset MULTIPLE times this season (4 wins over top 25 teams). Of their 4 upsets this season, 2 of them came as 6.5 point dogs (vs. ISU & vs. Arizona), one as a 13.5 point dog (@ Kansas), and one as a 15.5 point dog (vs. Gonzaga). So this team is no stranger to winning outright as a big underdog.

Then we look at the spot here. Houston is coming off one of the luckiest wins in the past decade in college basketball. The Cougars trialed by 6, at Kansas, with under a minute to play in regulation. It took Kansas taking a 5-second call with 15 seconds remaining (despite having two timeouts left), then FOULING away from the ball with 13 seconds left, and Houston’s Juwan Roberts making both free throws (despite being 54% on the season) just to force overtime. Then in overtime, the Jayhawks’ Dejuan Harris (83% FT shooter) was shooting 2 FTs, with KU up 6 with just 18 seconds remaining. He missed both FTs, Houston banged a deep three, stole the inbounds, and hit another three with 4 seconds left to tie the game. Kansas’ in game win probability in regulation was 98%. In overtime when shooting those two free throws, it was 99.9%. So you have the most emotional win you could possibly have, on the road, against your biggest competition in the conference. Now you have to play a second road game in a row, this time in Morgantown, against a team that has lost back-to-back games to inferior opponents, and 3 of their last 4 overall. It’s just a really poor spot for Houston, and a great spot for WVU.

Then you look at the matchup. Houston is the best defensive team in the country, metrically. That’s no surprise, as we tend to see that year in and year out according to KenPom. However, they are taking a West Virginia team that LOVES to shoot threes. They are top 30 in the country in percentage of FGs that are 3 pointers, as well as % of production coming from three pointers. Being heavily reliant on the three-ball really cranks up the variance, in terms of outcome of the game - if this team is hot from three, they significantly increase their chances of pulling a big upset, because we know they are going to take a ton of them. Additionally, as good as Houston is defensively, they are much better defending 2s than they are defending 3s. They are usually one of the top 5 perimeter defense teams in the country, however this season they’re 40th. That isn’t a bad spot to be, but it’s a farcry from where they’ve been the past half decade. And, if you watched the Kansas game this weekend, you can see why that’s the case. Houston gives up a ton more open looks from the perimeter than Cougar defenses of the past. I’ve seen this Houston team play multiple times, and from the eye test perspective, they just aren’t the same PERIMETER defense they usually are (which matches up with what the metrics show). I actually think they will finish even lower than they currently sit.

I expect this to be a low scoring, grinded out game, where both defenses play well, but West Virginia’s shooting from the perimeter keeps them in the game throughout. I truly believe the Mountaineers are a live dog here. We’re going to take the 9.5, but I want to sprinkle some on the ML as well, because if they get hot from three, there’s a real shot they win this one outright.

Official Pick: West Virginia +9.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops Best Bets (1/28/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 28, 2025 | 4:14 P.M. CST

CBB Overall Record: 23-9 (71.9%)

Best Bets Tonight:

1) Kentucky +10.5 @ Tennessee

I’m breaking two of my rules with this one. I’m taking a road team in conference play once students are back on campus, AND I’m taking a public underdog. However, I just think this is a really good spot for Kentucky. AND, Tennessee is not a team that should be laying double digit points to teams who can score it at a high clip (which Kentucky absolutely can).

Both of these teams come in on mini “rough patches”, although every team in the SEC is going to have rough patches this year. It’s the most brutal conference I’ve seen since the old Big East. Kentucky is just 3-4 in the SEC thus far, and they are coming off back to back losses. They also lost two of their last three road games, with both losses coming to unranked SEC teams, including their most recent outing Saturday afternoon to Vanderbilt. However, both those losses were to good teams. Georgia is going to be an NCAA tournament team when it’s all said and done, as Mike White has done a tremendous job there. Additionally, Vandy had already beaten Tennessee this year and as of today IS ranked in the Top 25 of the AP Poll. Tennessee on the other hand, is coming off a really tough loss at Auburn on Saturday night. It was one of the more physical, grinded out games I’ve seen all season. They come into this matchup 4-3 in SEC play.

Now, while Kentucky is playing their second straight road game, it’s not as though they are traveling cross-country here. They are going from Nashville to Knoxville, which is about a 3 hour drive. So the travel really isn’t tough for the Wildcats. Tennessee, on the other hand is coming off that extremely physical game with Auburn. And, while I don’t believe normally taking teams on road trips is a good idea, getting this Tennessee team after that physical of a game is a big bonus for Kentucky. I mean, I’ve seen boxing matches that were less physical than that game. Now the Vols have to take on a very high powered offensive team in Kentucky (much different than what they saw Saturday).

Moreover, this number is crazy. It opened 9.5 and got to 10.5. I was shocked at the move. I made this 5.5. I understand that teams going on the road in this conference are prone to get beat bad. But this Kentucky team can really score, and if this becomes a high scoring affair, I expect Kentucky to be a very live dog. On the other hand, if this becomes a slow, grinded out game (which favors Tennessee), now the Vols are having to cover a number as big as 10.5 in a game that’s played in the 50s or 60s? It just doesn’t make sense. This Tennessee team isn’t good enough offensively to lay this big of a number to any team that is in the top 15 in offensive efficiency. Kentucky comes in 4th in the nation in that category. They are top 50 in both 2FG% and 3FG% (57.0% & 36.9% respectively).

Overall, this number is too big, Kentucky is too good offensively, and it’s a bad spot for Tennessee against a UK team hungry for a win (after b2b losses). We’re riding with UK here plus a big number, despite the fact that they are a public dog.

Official Pick: Kentucky +10.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

2) Dayton -2.5 vs. St. Bonaventure

Speaking of teams who have fell on tough times, both of these programs started the year hot and have been in a rut as of late, with St. Bonaventure ESPECIALLY dipping as of late. The Bony’s started the season off hot as could be, winning 14 of their first 15 games. Their lone loss in the first half of the season came against a very good Utah State team on a neutral floor. However, since conference play tipped off, the Wolves have struggled. In fact, it’s one of the bigger drop off’s I’ve seen of any team this season in college basketball. The Wolves have now lost 3 consecutive games and 5 of their last 6, dropping to just 3-5 in A10 play. They’ve gone from a team that looked like they would surely get an At-Large bid to the NCAA tourney, to a team that is going to need to win the A10 tourney to have any shot of playing in March.

Dayton has not been all that great in A10 play either. When we first saw the Flyers on a big stage early this season at the Maui Invitational, they were upsetting UCONN and competing with Iowa State, one of the favorites to win the National Title this season (lost 89-84 in a very tight game). However, the Flyers are just 4-4 in their last 8 games, and they are just one game above .500 in conference play, sitting at 4-3. The main worst stretch of their season came with 3 consecutive losses to George Washington, UMASS, and George Mason. However, the Flyers have gotten back on track recently, ending that losing streak and putting together three straight wins.

Overall, looking at this matchup, you have two teams trending in opposite directions. Despite the rough 3 game stretch for the Flyers, Dayton has righted the ship, and they are back on the right track on this winning streak. Meanwhile, the Bonnies just cannot seem to figure it out on the offensive end. They are solid defensively, but they have really struggled to score against teams much worse than this Dayton group. In their current 3 game losing streak, they lost all three games by at least 13 points, and they have a negative point differential of 45 in those games.

While I only made this game Dayton -3 (and the line is 2.5) it feels as though this Bonnies team is mentally gone. They have lost their confidence, and they are not going to find it in a game against the most talented team in the A10 who is starting to figure it out. We’re going to roll with a second road team here tonight, and you’ll absolutely never see me take two road teams the rest of the season.

Official Pick: Dayton -2.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops FREE Mid-Major PICK of the Night (1/27/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 27, 2025 | 7:58 P.M. CST

This is NOT an official play. I went 2-1 on my official plays Saturday. Saturday night it looked like we were going to go a perfect 3-0 and get back to 75% on the season (which is absurd). However, one of the craziest collapses I’ve seen in all my years of college basketball happened. Kansas (catching 1.5) had an 83% free throw shooter shooting 2 FTs with under 20 seconds to go, leading by 6. They missed both FTs, gave up a 3, turned it over, and gave up another 3, all in the final 18 seconds. Now, full disclosure, we also won on Texas ML and they trailed by 22 in the second half. So it absolutely evened out. However, with all the bad beats we’ve had over the years, after finally getting one to go your way, you don’t expect to give it back the same day.

Regardless, below is my free pick of the night. I’m going to try to release some more unofficial plays for the website going forward, just to provide more content. If you do play these as actual bets, I recommend doing so at a significantly lower size than you would play a normal play of mine.

Free Pick of the Night: Texas A&M CC +4.5 (1ST HALF) vs. McNeese State

This is the battle of the best two teams in the Southland Conference. McNeese comes into the game a perfect 9-0 in conference play, while A&M Corpus Christi comes in 7-2, sitting in 2nd place in the conference. In all likelihood, we will see these two teams playing each other again in the Southland Conference Tournament Championship in a little over a month, with a trip with the NCAA tournament on the line. And, while I expect this McNeese group to get back to the NCAA Tourney once again this season, tonight is a different story.

Yes A&M CC is the inferior team here, but not by as much as this line indicates. As good as McNeese has been over the past couple seasons, this team isn’t quite as good as last year’s team that a lot of people picked as a Cinderella team (only to see them blown out in round 1 by Gonzaga). On the other hand, this A&M CC program is no stranger to the NCAA tournament themselves. They’ve reached the Big Dance twice the last three seasons. Therefore, the Islanders are not going to come into this game intimidated by the talent of this McNeese team. They know this is the biggest game of the season, thus far, and they will be ready to roll.

The Islanders don’t have the greatest home court advantage in terms of crowd noise or attendance, but it is a bit of a weird trip to Corpus Christi, Texas. And, we’ve seen the Islanders have lots of success at home this season (and over the past 4 years). This year, the Islanders have just one loss at home, and that came nearly two months ago to Lamar. Additionally, last year when McNeese State traveled to Corpus, it took a buzzer beater for the Cowboys to escape with a ONE POINT win. They did get the outright W, but they failed to come anywhere near covering a number. And keep in mind, that was a much better version of this McNeese State team. They went 30-3 overall, 17-1 in Southland Conference play, and they won the Southland regular season & conference tourney.

In addition to the spot here, I also like the matchup. The Islanders of A&M CC are the far superior 3-point shooting team. Coming into this game they are top 90 in the country (out of 364 teams), knocking down 35.4% of their triples. On the other side, McNeese is just 215th in the country from beyond the arc, knocking down LESS than 33% of their threes. The Islanders, being at home, being the better shooting team, and playing a team in McNeese who’s very average defending the three (125th in country in opponent 3-point FG% Defense), should give A&M CC a decent advantage here. Obviously, three-point shooting is not the end-all, be-all in college basketball. However, in a spot where you are looking at a dog of this size, and trying to make a case for a live dog, getting the significantly better shooting team at home is a great positional play.

Now, I really think A&M Corpus Christi is a live dog here. However, because of the way McNeese plays, and the fact that they DO have a significant overall talent advantage here, I’m going to look to the FIRST HALF here. The main reason being, I BELIEVE if Texas A&M CC gets down big in the first half, they are going to get blown out anyway, and they will NOT cover 8.5. However, there is a world where A&M CC is up or covering at halftime and blows it. But, their best shot to win and cover is to keep it close or have a small lead at halftime. Therefore, catching 5 points, I think we’re getting great value taking them in the first half. Additionally, the Islanders are one of the absolute WORST free throw shooting teams in the country (362nd out of 364 teams). And if the game is close in the second half, FT shooting tends to play a role. McNeese isn’t GREAT from the line, but they shoot it around 72%, while A&MCC shoots it at an abysmal 60%. If you like this breakdown, and wanted to go with A&M CC FULL GAME, I have no argument against it, I just believe the FIRST HALF is a slightly better play. I made this game line 6.5, which is where it opened. It’s currently 8.5. So my numbers show 2 points of value. But again, let’s ride with the first half. Take the ISLANDERS plus the points in the first half. If you want to have a little more fun, throw a few bucks on them MONEYLINE at +300

FREE PICK OF THE NIGHT: Texas A&M Corpus Christi +5 1H

Play Rating: None (Free Play, Not Official Client Play)

College Basketball Best Bets (Saturday, 1/25/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 25, 2025 | 4:17 A.M. CST

Overall Record: 21-8

Best Bets Saturday:

1) Texas -120 (ML) vs. Texas A&M

2) Kansas State -1 vs. West Virginia

3) Kansas +1.5 vs. Houston

All Plays: 2-Star

College Hoops Best Bet (1/24/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 24, 2025 | 2:37 P.M. CST

Overall Record: 20-8

Best Bet: Purdue -4.5 vs. Michigan

Don’t have time for a long breakdown today, so will give quick take here. Purdue is coming off an upset loss at home. The Boilermakers RARELY lose at home, as Mackey Arena is one of the best home court advantages in CBB. The loss came at the hands of a very bad Ohio State team, and it was a game Purdue never should have lost. Usually, coming off a loss, going on the road to a tough opponent would be one spot to be careful, but not playing at home. There’s almost zero shot Purdue loses back-to-back home games at Mackey arena, in conference play. It just does not happen.

Additionally, Michigan is a very streaky team. They started off the season hot, before having a mid-season lull. They responded with a great start to conference play, starting a perfect 5-0, before dropping one to Minnesota on the road in overtime in their last outing (Minnesota came into that game 0-6 in the Big 10). Michigan lost that game at the buzzer on basically a half court shot. The Wolverines had to sit on that tough loss for over a week, as that was last Thursday. Now they go on the road once again, taking on a more talented, well-coached Purdue team, out for blood after that last loss. I love Dusty Maye, and he’s going to turn Michigan into a National Championship level program, but just not this year.

I’m not sure why this number is so short to be honest. I made this Purdue -6.5. Give me the Boilers at home to bounce back and take care of the Wolverines. I would THINK this gets to 5, based on my numbers, but I’ve not seen any indication of a move that way to this point. The game starts in about 4 and a half hours. Either way let’s lay the 4.5 with Purdue here.

Official Pick: Purdue -4.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops Best Bet (1/22/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 22, 2025 | 6:43 P.M. CST

CBB Overall Record: 20-7

Best Bet Tonight: Ole Miss -3.5 vs. Texas A&M

Ole Miss has been one of the better surprises this season. Chris Beard was an elite basketball coach when at Texas Tech and during the start of his tenure at Texas. Obviously the circumsanstances of his exit in Austin were unfortunate, but without clear details of what actually happened, he took over the Ole Miss program the following season, and hasn’t looked back. And to be honest, he’s building this program just like he did in Lubbock. He has Mark Adams (old assistant at Tech) back with him in Oxford, and they’ve employed the famous “No-Middle Defense” that the Red Raiders were so good at under Beard. That along with some talented players, good shooting, and high effort guys have led Ole Miss to a 5-1 start to SEC play. Their lone loss came against Mississippi State ON THE ROAD in overtime in their last outing. I like them to bounce back here against the Aggies.

Although A&M did get Wade Taylor back, they aren’t the same Aggies team we saw at the end of the year last season with those dynamic guards. They are still elite on the offensive glass, but they are abysmal shooting the ball. They rank outside the top 300 teams in Division 1 in three point shooting, hitting on less than 30.5% of their shots from beyond the arc. They are highly reliant on creating extra possessions and on getting to the free throw line. This is a poor matchup for the Aggies as the Rebels are elite defensively and unless A&M has an uncharacteristic shooting night against a very good perimeter defense, I don’t see how they score enough to hang with Ole Miss.

Official Pick: Ole Miss -3.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

NFL Playoff Best Bet (Divisional Round)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 16, 2025 | 4:42 P.M. CST

Best Bet

• 2 Team, 6 Point Teaser: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 & Buffalo Bills +7.5

We are going back to the well with another playoff teaser. My teasers have been perfect over the past 7 weeks so let’s keep the streak going. Keep in mind, the BILLS number here is the most important thing. We need the Bills at +7.5 & it’s worth it to lay -120 at a 6.5 point teaser if necessary. There are plenty of Bills +1.5 out there. If you can get the Bills to +7.5 and the Chiefs are -2, that’s fine as well. In that case, don’t use a 6.5 point teaser, as Chiefs -1.5 is nearly identical, value wise, to Chiefs -2.

Overall, these are simple plays. The Kansas City Chiefs are a significant mismatch for the Houston Texans, who really struggled offensively against the LA Chargers. The scoreboard shows a blowout, but that game was anything but close for the majority of the contest. The Texans trailed 6-0 & the Chargers had the ball inside the Texans 40-yard line late in the second quarter. Had Justin Herbert not thrown a horrible interception, there’s a decent chance the Chargers go into halftime up 9-0 or possibly 13-0. Then, even on the ensuing drive, the Texans were facing a 3rd and 16 and CJ Stroud dropped the snap. The ball miraculously bounced back up to him in stride and instead of throwing it away he kept the play alive and found a receiver for 36 yards. That play truly sparked the Texans offense, as they went onto score a TD on that drive. Now, kudos to the Texans defense for keeping them in the game while the offense struggled. However, the game really went completely sideways in the third quarter when two dropped passes led to a pick-six and another pick that was nearly returned for a TD. Those two plays essentially ended the game for all intents & purposes. Regardless, this is just an incredibly difficult matchup for the Texans. They are not equipped, from a talent standpoint, to beat this KC team AT HOME, let alone in the cold of Arrowhead. The score may end up within the 7.5 points, but it will not be close.

Leg number two, we’re going to the Buffalo Bills +7.5. Honestly, I’d take either of these teams above a TD in this game, as I expect this to be a very tight, one-score game. However, I prefer the Bills over the Ravens. I actually make this game Bills -2. And I considered giving out the Bills +1 as a best bet as well (I still might). But there’s a very small chance that this game is a blowout either way. The Bills are a perfect 9-0 at home this season, 15-2 the last two years, and the two losses have both come by less than 7. So, the Ravens would have to do something that hasn’t been done in a LONG TIME; beat the Bills with Josh Allen in Buffalo by 2 scores. I just don’t see that happening. I think this is the Bills year. But, even if it’s not, I see the Ravens winning a close game if it doesn’t go Buffalo’s way. So we’re taking the best of the number and getting this above a TD for leg number 2.

Official Pick: KC Chiefs -1.5 + Buffalo Bills +7.5

Play Rating: 3-Star

College Basketball Best Bets (1/16/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 16, 2025 | 4:32 P.M.

Last Night: 0-2 | Overall Season: 19-7 (71%)

Best Bet

• Michigan Team Total OVER 77.5 vs. Minnesota (2-Star)

College Hoops Best Bets (1/15/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 15, 2025 | 4:29 P.M. CST

Last Night: 1-0 (Arizona/Baylor Over 147) | College Basketball Record: 19-5 (79.2%)

Best Bets Tonight:

1) Oklahoma -2 vs. Texas

Both teams come into this game DESPERATE for a conference win, as both sit winless in SEC play (both 0-3). Oklahoma had a phenomenal start to the season with 13 straight wins to open the year. They were ranked as high as top 10 in the country, but they’ve now dropped 3 consecutive games. Despite losing three straight, OU has some great wins on their schedule thus far. They have wins over Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan (all 3 of which are tournament teams). Additionally, the 3 losses the Sooners suffered were all at the hands of tournament teams as well, and two of the three came on the road. Alabama and Georgia (the two road losses) are teams with a combined record of 26-5. Their other loss came at home to 13-4 Texas A&M, a game the Sooners led by 9 at halftime, and very well should have won.

Texas on the other hand, comes in 11-5, also 0-3 in conference play. Despite having 11-wins overall and a decent record, the Longhorns played a very weak schedule in the non-conference. Moreover, the only teams ranked in the top 35 in the kenpom they’ve played, they lost to; they are 0-5 vs. the KP top 35. Their best win, according to KenPom, was a win over St. Joseph’s (who is ranked 91st in KP). Every single time the Longhorns have stepped up in class, they’ve lost. And to be honest, only one of those games was remotely close. They lost to Ohio State & UCONN in the non-conference & neither game did the Longhorns really compete. Their first conference opponent was Texas A&M on the road, who they lost to by 20. The final score against Auburn looks like the game was close, but Auburn led by 20 late in the second half and took their foot off the gas entirely, allowing UT to comeback and make that score look closer than the game actually was; Texas was DOMINATED in that game for 34 of the 40 minutes in their own building. They then got to play Tennessee at home the next time out; and they got Tennessee after a 30+ point loss for the Vols where their confidence was at an all-time low. Texas had every opportunity to win the game as Tennessee could not make a jump shot to save their life early in the game. But of course, the Longhorns lack of late game execution cost them the win.

Lastly, we look at the factors beyond the player matchups here. This game is being played in Norman. And while the Sooners don’t have the greatest home court advantage in college basketball, students should be back on campus at this time and we should see the arena sold out for what is a very important game for their team (not to mention it’s a rivalry game). Additionally, when we look at the coaching matchup, there’s a DISTINCT advantage to Oklahoma. Rodney Terry is easily the worst coach in the SEC, and quite possibly in the entire group of teams throughout Power 4 conferences. He has his job, solely due to Chris Beard scandal, and the Horns have gotten worse each year since then. On the other side, Porter Mosure is one of the more underrated coaches in the country. I believe it’s only a matter of time before he has Oklahoma competing for conference titles. He’s obviously been to a final four with Loyola Chicago, and his in game coaching is no match for Rodney Terry. I love everything about this matchup, as Texas will rely solely on 1v1 & high pick and roll, while OU will be running good offense and sets to get guys great looks.

Official Pick No. 1: Oklahoma Sooners -2

Play Rating: 2-Star

2) Davidson -1 vs. La Salle

We’re going to look to fade a team who overperformed over the weekend. The Explorers came into the weekend 8-7, facing a St. Bonnies team on their home floor; a team that had been very good so far this season. But La Salle was able to hang in there punch for punch with the Wolves of St. Bonaventure, taking them to OT. Late in the game the Bonnies had the ball and a 2 point lead, and their starting PG missed a WIDE OPEN layup, as well as an easy tip in off that miss to give the Bonnies a 4-point lead, and likely end the game. La Salle gathered the rebound and held for one shot, trailing by two. After the ball was poked out of the hands of guard Deuce Jones’ hands, the Explorers were forced to call timeout with just 4.1 seconds remaining. Out of the timeout a busted play resulted in the ball finding Jones again, and Jones threw up a running, one footed three pointer that somehow banked in at the buzzer, to give La Salle the upset victory over the Bonnies.

Diving back into the score of that game, La Salle really out performed their season long metrics. They shot 39% from the three point line, making a total of 13 threes (including the game winner). Heading into that game, the Exploreres were 250th in the country making less than 33% of their threes on the season. Additionally, La Salle does a good job taking care of the basketball (55th in country in TO% coming into that game). However, they took it to another level vs. the Wolves, as they turned it over just 6 times the ENTIRE game, and that included a 5 minute overtime period. They were also outside the top 250 in the country in TO% forced, and yet they were able to put up 27 points off TO’s in this game. So, overall point being, this team did a lot of things they don’t normally do. Yet, they still needed a running, one-footed, banked three pointer at the buzzer to beat St. Bonaventure. And while the Bonnies are a good team, they aren’t anything SPECIAL, and probably played their worst defensive game of the season.

With all that said, we now have this team who clearly overperformed last time out, coming off an emotional win, as a huge underdog. Now they go back home, and they are taking on a very disciplined Davidson team, but not one that you’re going to get excited to play against. Davidson plays very boring basketball. They want to play at a very slow pace (248th in adjusted tempo). They are going to make this a slow, grinded out game; they’re going to run their offense, run the clock and get great looks. They don’t turn the ball over (top 25 in country in TO%) and they shoot the ball at a high percentage overall and from three. La Salle is going to try to play fast and speed the tempo up, but it’s much easier to slow a team down than it is to speed them up. Not to mention this is a huge mismatch in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency. Davidson comes in as a top 85 offense (out of 334 teams), where as La Salle is outside the top 175 in defensive efficiency. I expect Davidson to have significant success on offense. And, while Davidson is not great defensively (outside top 180 in defensive efficiency), I’m not sure this La Salle team has enough to outperform expectations for a second consecutive games, especially off that emotional high. Let’s roll with Davidson here at a cheap price.

Official Pick No. 2: Davidson -1

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops Best Bet (1/14/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 14, 2025 | 5:55 P.M. CST

College Basketball Season Record: 18-5

Best Bet Tonight:

• Baylor Bears @ Arizona Wildcats OVER 147 (-110)

• Summary: This game features two teams trending up in the Big 12. Arizona has had a rollercoaster year so far in Tommy Lloyd’s 4th season. The Wildcats had their worst start since Lloyd took over this program back in 2021, going 4-5 through their first 9 games. This included losses to two teams in the Cat’s new conference (Big 12). Fortunately for Arizona, those games came in a tournament early in the season, thus neither loss counted towards conference play. Since Big 12 play officially tipped off, Arizona is a perfect 4-0, and they’ve now won 6 consecutive games overall. It feels like they’ve steadied the ship at last. Baylor had a similar start, although they did not get in as big of a hole as Arizona did. The Bears were 5-3 through their first 8 games. However, they’ve won 6 of their last 7 games, with their lone loss coming on the road against the #3 ranked Iowa State Cyclones.

• Thus both teams come in playing good basketball, and especially playing good on the offensive end. Both teams come in ranked in the top 20 in Offensive Efficiency (Baylor 15th, Arizona 17th). Additionally, both come in ranked outside the top 25 in the country in Defensive Efficiency. Now neither team is BAD defensively, but they are certainly not elite (Baylor 26th, Arizona 40th). So we have two teams coming in playing good basketball, both of which are very talented on the offensive end of the floor, but have struggled to fully put it together on the defensive end.

• When you look at the pace of play Baylor likes to slow it down much more than Arizona. The Bears play at a a pace in the bottom 1/3rd of the country, while Arizona plays at a very fast pace (56th in country in adjusted tempo). Arizona especially likes to push the pace at home. In fact, the last 4 home games the Wildcats have played, the games have averaged 164.2 points, which is far beyond the number we need tonight (147). Although Baylor does like to play at a slow pace on both sides, they are much more likely to morph to their opponents’ tempo than Arizona is, especially on the road. I believe the Bears are going to run with the Wildcats tonight and push the tempo. They certainly have the talent & athletes to do so with VJ Edgecombe and Jeremy Roach. I see this as a very up tempo game and possibly turning into a shootout with the two sides trading buckets late.

• Let’s Roll with the OVER tonight. It’s come down a touch, which is weird to me. I would think it has to do with Baylor’s pace of play, but that stat is skewed based on opponents and location of play. Take the best of the number, but 147 is still out there.

Official Pick: Baylor @ Arizona OVER 147 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Stars

NFL Playoff Best Bets: Round 1 (1/11/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 11, 2025 | 12:02 A.M. CST

Best Bet 2-Team, 6.5 Point Teaser: Baltimore Ravens -3 & Buffalo Bills -3

• I don’t normally like giving out a -120 bet unless I feel there’s a significant edge (obviously you have to pick at a higher rate at 20% juice). However, I think this is the best bet on the board in round 1 that’s going to be a legitimate non-sweat. Let’s dive into each of the two picks:

Ravens -3 vs. Steelers:

Let’s start with the Baltimore Ravens. Look the Pittsburgh Steelers have been REELING down the stretch. My favorite thing is to bet is when my in-season projections from weeks prior align with a pick that I like currently; when I get that combo it usually bodes very well. Back-to-back wins over the Bengals & Browns put the Steelers at 10-3, but it was clear that this Steelers team was much worse than their record indicated. Not only had Pittsburgh won multiple games that they did not deserve to win, but their supposedly ELITE defense got shredded by the Joe Burrow & the Bengals. The next game that same defense gave up 300 yards to the Browns and Jameis Winston and only won the game by margin due to Famous Jameis turnovers.

Looking at their last four games I predicted the Steelers would finish the season 0-4, MAYBE 1-3. And that’s exactly what they did. They lost 4 consecutive games to end the regular season. The defense looked average in those 4 games and the offense looked putrid, especially with George Pickens out. Even with Pickens back, in a MUST WIN game to avoid dropping from the 5 seed to the 6 seed (difference between going to Houston and going to Baltimore) playing against arguably the WORST defense in the league in the Cincinnati Bengals, AT HOME, that same Steelers offense mustered just 17 points. And honestly, 17 points gives them more credit than they deserve. The Steelers finished the game at 3.4 yards per pass, 3.2 yards per rush, and a horrific 3.3 yards per play. It was a spot that if you have an offense they WILL show up, and they didn’t.

Then you look at the fact that the Steelers also PLAYED the Ravens in one of their four final games. That was a game that if Pittsburgh won they controlled the division and a path to a home playoff game. The Ravens won by 17 points. They outgained the Steelers by over 100 total yards, and by 1.5 yards per play. That vaunted Steeler’s defense allowed Lamar Jackson and company to average nearly 7 yards per play in not great weather. And, it was a balanced attack.

While the Steelers finished the season with 4 consecutive losses, the Ravens finished with 4 consecutive wins. These are two teams headed in complete opposite directions. But what really impressed me the last 4 games was the Baltimore Ravens defense. This was a secondary that was NOT GOOD for most of the season, despite having an elite run defense. And yet the final 4 games the Ravens were awesome on the defensive side. As a whole, they gave up less than 11 points per game the last 4 outings. Now, they did play some of the bottom offenses in the league, but you have to take into account that offenses like that we’re torching this Ravens secondary early in the season. AND, you have to take into account that this Pittsburgh offense IS ALSO A BOTTOM OFFENSE. Even if the Ravens were to revert back to some of their previous woes, I’m not sure this Steelers offense has the ability to take advantage of it. Even in the first matchup in Pittsburgh earlier this season, a matchup won by the Steelers (18-16), Pittsburgh averaged just 4.1 yards per play and they were outgained by the Ravens by 2.0 yards per play. Russell Wilson threw for just 205 yards and a INT, zero TDs. They won the game due to Ravens mistakes (12 penalties and 3 TO’s). In my opinion, that’s the ONLY way the Steelers keep this REMOTELY close: the Ravens would have to have won of their worst offensive outings of the season, while the Steelers would have to play one of their BEST. I just don’t see it happening. And that’s why we’re going to tease this to the key of 3.

Part 2: Bills -3 vs. Broncos

The Broncos are a great story this season. They had a bottom five defense in the NFL last season; we saw them give up 70 points to the Miami Dolphins early in the 2023 campaign. And through the first half of the year, they had become one of the leagues TOP defenses. You had the worst trade in NFL history, with Denver giving Russell Wilson that massive contract, and yet he was as bad as you could be last season. They get a rookie QB coming in, who nobody thought was any good, and he ends the year likely second in OROY voting. These things all contributed to the Broncos making the playoffs for the first team in a half decade. Great for Bo Nix, and Sean Payton, and all the Denver fans. Unfortunately their run will come to an end Sunday, as they get matched up with who I believe is the SB favorite in the Buffalo Bills

This Bills team is on an absolute mission this year. Josh Allen IS the MVP (and he WILL win the award). There’s been absolutely nobody better in the entire NFL this year. Allen has carried a team with no-name receivers (at least before they added Amari Cooper). But this Bills team is more than that. Joe Brady has developed a very balanced offense featuring James Cook out of the backfield, and mixing in lots of Josh Allen runs. And that’s all great, before adding in the home field advantage. This is by far the toughest place in the NFL to play when it comes playoff time. That place is going to be filled and absolutely rocking from the jump. The Bills were a perfect 8-0 at home this season, and they beat teams much better than the Denver Broncos.

Overall, it’s just an impossible spot for a rookie QB and an overachieving team. They may have had a shot against the Houston Texans. Possibly even the Baltimore Ravens if the weather held up and no Zay Flowers. But this Broncos team has no shot of keeping this close. I was considering laying the entire 9.5 but I believe for purposes of avoiding a backdoor sweat, we’re just going to make this leg two of the teaser and ride with the Bills -3.

Official Pick: Ravens -3 | Bills -3 (-120)

Play Rating: 2-Stars

CFP Orange Bowl Semi Final Best Bet (1/9/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 9, 2025 | 9:45 A.M. CST

Best Bet:

• Notre Dame PK vs. Penn State

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops Best Bets (1/8/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 8, 2025 | 4:27 P.M. CST

Last Night’s Wagers: 2-0

Tonight’s Best Bets:

1) Villanova PK vs. UCONN

2) Arkansas -3.5 vs. Ole Miss

Both Plays: 2-Stars

College Hoops Best Bets (1/7/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 7, 2025 | 3:37 P.M. CST

Best Bets:

1) Florida -3.5 vs. Tennessee

2) Georgia +1.5 vs. Kentucky

Both Plays: 2-Stars

NFL Best Bet Sunday Games (1/5/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 4, 2024 | 11:15 P.M. CST

Best Bet: 2-Team, 6 Point Teaser (Chargers -.5 | Seahawks -1)

• Week 18 in the modern day NFL is all about identifying which teams are motivated to win and which teams are not. Sometimes it’s simple, where teams are sitting their starters. Other times, you have to identify whether teams are going to try to win when it’s actually advantageous for them to lose.

• Chargers -6.5 to -.5 vs Raiders: Yes, the Chargers have already clinched a playoff birth heading into the final week. However, with the results of the Bengals/Steelers game in, we now know EXACTLY what the Chargers are playing for. If Los Angeles LOSES to the Raiders tomorrow, the Chargers will fall to the 6 seed, which means they would be going on the road to Baltimore to play the AFC North Champion Ravens. Keep in mind, the Chargers already played the Ravens once this year, and it was all Baltimore (and that game was in L.A.) On the other hand, if the Chargers win tomorrow, they will be locked into the #5 seed, which would in turn send them to HOUSTON to play the Texans. The Texans have been in a landslide the past month, with CJ Stroud continuing to struggle, along with serious health concerns on both the OL and in the wide receiver room. Basically, my point is that playing the Texans indoors, compared to playing at Baltimore in cold weather for a west coast team is a MASSIVE difference. So the Chargers will be very motivated here. On the other hand, it’s possible Antonio Pierce knows he’s fired, in which case he will be trying to win this game for his guys. However, the Raiders have no trouble losing games they’re trying to win. They lost 10-straight during the season, and their only wins in the past 14 weeks came against Mac Jones and the 4-win Jaguars and Spencer Rattler who lost every game he’s started for the Saints (0-6). So even if the Raiders come in motivated to win here (which they SHOULD NOT BE because it hurts their draft position), they just don’t have enough to compete with a locked in Chargers team, who’s playing for something. I thought this line was too low.

• Seahawks -7 to -1 @ Rams: The Seahawks have nothing to play for in terms of playoff positioning, and the Rams do. With a loss and a Bucs win (TB is a 13 point favorite tomorrow vs. Saints), the Rams would drop to the #4 seed and would square off with the loser of the Vikings/Lions Sunday Night matchup. Meaning, a loss could result in playing a 14-win team rather than a 10 or 11 win team. Still the Rams will be sitting all their major offensive weapons in this game, including starting QB Matthew Stafford. Jimmy G will be getting the nod at QB. Now Seattle has plenty of incentives to fill, which is partially why I like the Seahawks here. Geno Smith, particularly, has a shot to make up to six million bucks in bonuses; and, one of those bonuses is a 2 million dollar bump for winning 10-games. So Geno has every incentive in the world to go out and play his best game of the season, even though they have no shot at the post-season. It also gives head coach Mike McDonald a chance to get to 10-wins in his first season as head coach in Seattle. Although making the playoffs was likely his goal, 10-wins in the NFL in your first year is without a doubt a success. With that motivation and the Rams sitting the majority of their key guys, I don’t see how LA wins this game. It would take significant give up by that Seattle defense. I like the Seahawks here so that’s leg 2

Official Pick: Chargers -.5 | Seahawks -1 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

Best Bet NFL Afternoon/Sunday Night Football Teaser (12/29/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 29, 2024 | 1:52 P.M. CST

Top Teaser of the Week: Green Bay Packers +7 | Atlanta Falcons +10.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

Best Bet CFP Round 1 (12/21/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 21, 2024 | 1:37 A.M. CST

Best Bet CFP Saturday Games: 2-Team, 6 Point Teaser: Penn State -2 | Ohio State -1

We’re going to go with a two team ML Parlay and take two big favorites. I normally hate doing teasers in CFB, but in this case, it’s worth it. I make the probability of Ohio State winning over 87% and Penn State 93%. Barring major injuries we’re going to see two blowouts. If you want to turn this into a ML parlay and throw Texas in there, you would actually get plus money. I’m going with the teaser, but BOTH are good options.

Official Pick: Penn State -2 | Ohio State -1 (2-Team, 6 Point Teaser)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Football Bowl Game Best Bets: Alamo Bowl, Top Totals, & More (12/21/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 21, 2024 | 1:11 P.M. CST

Here I’m going to give my best 4 Bowl Bets of the next few weeks.

Bowl Game BEST BETS (Sides)

• Colorado -3 vs. BYU | Play Rating: 2-Star

• Rutgers +7 vs. K-State | Play Rating: 2-Star

Bowl Game Best Bets (Totals)

• UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina OVER 56.5 | 2-Star

• Iowa State vs. Miami OVER 55.5 | 2-Star

College Basketball Best Bets (12/14/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 14, 2024 | 8:57 A.M. CST

Current Record: 13-3 (81.3%)

Best Bets Today:

1) Dayton +1.5 vs. Marquette: This is a pure fade of Marquette playing another true road game. The one true road game they played they were a 7 point dog at Iowa State and got pounded. Dayton has an underrated home court advantage. The public will be all over Marquette, and Dayton has a solid squad this year. They competed with some good teams in Maui, and they will pull the outright upset today.

2) Gonzaga vs. UCONN OVER 151.5: Gonzaga is one of the most up tempo teams in the country and they shoot an absurd number of threes. Additionally, UCONN’s defense has been porous so far this season, and I believe Gonzaga will exploit that. Both teams are very good shooting teams: UCONN is top 10 in eFG% and Gonzaga is top 70 as well. There’s a good chance this turns into an up tempo game because UCONN will often morph to it’s opponents style and the Zags want to get up and down.

3) Depaul -3.5 vs. Wichita State: Wichita State comes into this game with just 1 loss this season, but they’ve played one of the easier schedules in the country. They beat a bad St. Louis team easily in the Hall of Fame Classic, and followed it up with a win over a bottom 5 Big 10 team in Minnesota, and needed OT to beat them. The one team they played with a pulse was Florida, and the Gators DESTROYED them 88-51. Depaul hasn’t been great by any means, but the amount they’ve improved this year under first year head coach Chris Holtman is significant. They started the season 8-0, but dropped their last two games to Texas Tech and Providence. Although Tech did beat them easily, the Providence game went to overtime. And that Providence team is nothing to laugh at. This is a good bounce back spot for Depaul. They’re playing at home, and I think they get it done laying a short number. This will be a big win for Holtman and company. Take Depaul and lay the 3.5

All Plays: 2-Star