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College Hoops Best Bet + Big Game Breakdown & Opinion (2/3/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 3, 2025 | 11:58 A.M. CST
Season Record: 29-12 (70.7%)
Best Bet: UAB -2 vs. North Texas
These two teams come into this game tonight fighting for sole possession of 2nd place in the American Conference. Both North Texas (16-5) & UAB (14-8) come into this game 7-2 in conference play, while Memphis sits atop the conference at 8-1. Despite being tied record wise, NT currently holds the tiebreaker, as the Mean Green took down the Blazers in their first matchup in Denton, TX. This UAB team finished 4th in the American Conference last season (12-6 in conference play), but RAN through the AAC Tournament, winning all three of their tourney games by double digits on their way to clinching a spot in the Big Dance; the Blazers nearly pulled off an upset in Round 1 of the NCAA tournament, but fell to SDSU, 65-69 in a close game.
A solid regular season, paired with the conference tournament run had AAC coaches high on the UAB Blazers entering this season; they were picked to win the conference in the pre-season. However, a number of subpar non-conference performances led to a very poor start (UAB was 5-6 through their first 11 games). However, since that poor start, the Blazers have won 9 of their last 11 games, going 7-1 in their last 8 games, on their way to a 7-2 start to conference play (much closer to their pre-season projections in the AAC). Their lone losses BOTH came ON THE ROAD, and to each of the top two teams in the American: @ Memphis lost by 23 & @ North Texas by 3.
Meanwhile, North Texas was picked to finish all the way back in 7th in the American Conference, but they’ve been far better than that projection. They’ve already 16 wins (16-5 start to the year), and one game away from having sole possession of 2nd place in the American. They actually started 16-4, and all 4 losses were to very solid teams. In fact, every team they fell to before this past Saturday is currently in 1st or 2nd in their respective conference standings. And, their lone conference loss was a 4 point loss at 1st place Memphis. However, Saturday they faced off against UTSA, who was just 9-11 overall and 3-5 in conference play, and a lack of offense from the Mean Green led to UTSA pulling an upset. It was the first real “BAD” loss on the Mean Green’s schedule, as not only was it to a team far outside NT’s class, but it was also a HOME loss (1st true home loss all year for North Texas)
So why are we backing UAB here? Well, let’s start with the way these teams are trending. Yes, both teams hold identical record the past 9 conference games, however UAB’s two losses both came on the road, while NT just lost at home to UTSA. I mention that because they are both trending up, but I believe North Texas’ confidence is trending the opposite way, and I could see them coming into this game really struggling. Think about it: they just played the 273rd ranked defense in the country (out of 364 teams), who is outside the top 330 in effective FG% defense, and outside the top 300 in both 2FG% & 3FG% defense. Against that defense, AT HOME, the Mean Green shot 15/47 (31.9%), 3/17 from three (17.6%), and scored a TOTAL of 50 points.
Meanwhile, UAB has been playing great basketball on the offensive end. Looking at the Blazers metrically, they come in top 40 in the country in offensive efficiency, and they are especially good in the paint and utilizing 2FGs. They don’t settle for a ton of threes, and they are ELITE on the offensive glass (8th in the country in ORB%). Now, North Texas is very good on the defensive glass over the course of the season, but these two teams faced each other once already; and, in that game, North Texas was absolutley ABUSED on the glass. UAB secured 15 offensive rebounds, they were a +7 on the offensive glass, and they were a +10 on the glass as a whole. If UAB dominates the glass they way they did in the first matchup, which was at North Texas, they will win this game going away.
Additionally, in that first matchup, UAB actually led by 17 at halftime, and they were in complete control of that game. It was a a huge run by North Texas to start the second half that got them back in the game, and eventually NT was able to steal a win, outscoring the Blazers by 20 points in the second half to win, 81-78. Lastly, UAB had 13 TO’s in that game at North Texas a few weeks back, which is highly uncharacteristic of this Blazer’s team. They come into this game with a 14.5% TO percentage, which ranks 21st in the entire country. It would be surprising to see UAB turn the ball over that many times tonight.
Last point I’d like to make is that TEMPO is going to be important; North Texas plays at one of the slowest paces in the entire country. In fact, they are the SECOND SLOWEST team in the nation (363rd in Adjusted Tempo out of 364 teams). Meanwhile, UAB wants to play MUCH faster. They come in ranked 71st in Adjusted Tempo, meaning they are in the top 20% of teams in terms of fast pace of play. Well, when we look at that first game, we saw an up & down high scoring game, finishing with a total 159 points between the two teams. With that in mind, it seems NT was wiling to play up and down with UAB more than I expected. And because they won, I believe this game is going to be similar. That strongly favors UAB in this spot. So we’re going with the BLAZERS here and lay the small number. I wouldn’t be opposed to laying the ML if you have access to -125 or better. These two teams always tend to play close games. That said, UAB is a good FT shooting team, so if it is close late I expect them to make their free throws and close out the game at the line.
Official Pick: UAB -2 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
Additional Pick:
I really HATE the way Kansas has been trending lately. I truly believe that this was just a BAD nucleus of guys that Bill Self recruited (including transfers), because this Kansas team is arguably the most talented group in the country from top to bottom. I don’t think there’s a deeper, more talented roster, and yet they’ve been on a negative trajectory for the past month. It really wouldn’t even surprise me if Bill Self is on his way out at Kansas one of the next few years, with all the changes to recruting, NIL, and paying players. He already has two National Championships, and he will go down as one of the greatest college coaches ever. If he is thinking about coaching 5-10 more years, it wouldn’t shock me if he decided to pursue an NBA job soon, just to be able to continue coaching but get away from all the bull shit NIL stuff.
Overall, it’s been a WACKY year for Kansas, to say the least. In the non-conference they go out and beat North Carolina, Michigan State, and Duke. Two of those teams are currently in the top 10, and will likely be top 2-3 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. They then lost their first two true road games (to Creighton and Mizzou), but that’s to be expected in college hoops, even for a team with lots of veteran guys; playing on the road is tough in this sport. BUT, the concern for this team started when they let West Virginia waltz into legendary Fogg Allen Field House and beat them on their home floor. They responded with a few good wins against inferior opponents, but then their last 6 games they’ve gone just 3-3, and there have been some epic collapses in that run. Their first loss in that stretch came at Iowa State (their opponent tonight), a game that the Cyclones dominated. They shot 61% from three, won the rebounding battle by double digits, and cruised to a 17 point loss. Then came the Houston loss, their 2nd home loss of the season. They Jayhawks led by 6 at the end of regulation with just about a minute to play, by 4 with the ball under 45 seconds, and by 2 with the ball with under 20 seconds. A five-second call on the baseline was taken, despite having 2 timeouts left, led to Houston tying the game and sending it to OT. In OT the Jayhawks led by 6, with Dejuan Harris (83% FT shooter) shooting 2 FTs, with 18 seconds remaining. And somehow, someway the Jayhawks COLLAPSED and allowed Houston to force double OT. The Cougars would go on to knock off the Jayhawks in double OT. And, then the final loss in this rough patch came on the road against Baylor, where the Jayhawks blew a 21 point first half lead and went on to LOSE by 11. In between there, the Jayhawks BARELY escaped Central Florida at home as well, escaping with a fortunate call late in the game.
Iowa State, on the other hand, is coming off their worst performance of the season by far. They did have a starter out, but losing at home to K-State is purely a lack of focus. The Cyclones have been the best team at home in college basketball over the past 2-3 years, and K-State has been the worst road team in the conference the last two years. Because they played so poorly, I think this is a really good bounce back spot for the Cyclones. I believe the lack of focus came from the brutal loss suffered at Arizona the game prior to K-State; the Cyclones should really be sitting here with just one conference loss, and now they sit with 3. But, this Cyclones team is very mentally tough, and TJ Otzleberger is one of the best coaches in the country. They will be ready to go tonight in Lawerence. On the other side, I believe there is something fundamentally flawed with this KU team, especially in terms of their psyche.
Therefore, I like ISU in this spot a lot. The problem is, I just have a very hard time taking a road team in conference play in this tough of an environment. So I’m just going to give this out as my “free pick” or “opinion” of the night. We’re not going to make it an official play, although I believe ISU will win the game outright
NON-Official Pick/OPINION: ISU +2.5 (-110)
College Hoops Weekly Summary (2/2/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 2, 2025 | 12:50 A.M. CST
Best Bets Summary:
Yesterday’s Record: 4-1 (80.0%)
Wins: Wake Forest, Oklahoma, Baylor, & St. Mary’s
Loss: UCF
This Week’s Record: 6-3 (66.7%)
Sunday/Monday: No Plays
Tuesday: 1-1
Kentucky +10.5 over Tennessee (WIN) = UK won outright in Knoxville. I broke down this game in full, but I was pretty accurate here in the sense that Tennessee is so offensively challenged that it would be very tough to cover a number that big against a team who can actually score it. Kentucky shot the ball well and took care of it, despite having their starting PG Lamont Butler out. This was the right side, and was a sweat free winner
Dayton -2.5 vs. St. Bonny’s (LOSS) = This was a poor pick - I went with the road team in Dayton on a small winning streak, but really it was a fade of St. Bonaventure who had looked horrific the past 7 games, and they had shown no indication they were due for a bounce back. Dayton waxed from start to finish.
Wednesday: 0-1
West Virginia +9.5 vs. Houston (LOSS) = This was a spot play, fading Houston off a big, emotional win at Kansas, where they should’ve lost multiple times, but somehow pulled it out. WVU was coming off a really poor performance against K-State and it was a good bounce back spot. Houston just came out on fire and got a MASSIVE lead in the game. Funny enough, WVU came all the way back in the second half and actually cut the lead to 3 and had free throws to make it a one point game, but then collapsed late. Houston ended up covering, and Houston was the right side. We deserved this loss, but long run playing spots like this, is profitable
Thursday: 1-0
Nebraska +4.5 vs. Illinois (WIN) = Nebraska was the right side in this game the entire way. They really should’ve won this game outright in regulation. Illinois NEVER LED in regulation (not for one second). Yet they ended up with the ball on the final possession with a chance to win it. When the game went to OT, I figured “here we go again,” but the Huskers were able to pull out the victory in OT. Nebraska was the better team all night, and we were on point with this one. Nice outright win, taking the points with the home dog.
Friday: No Plays
Saturday: 4-1
Wake Forest -125 ML (WIN) = this line opened -1.5 and was sitting -2 most of the morning. There were plenty of -125, and -130 out there. And, while I don’t normally like laying increased juice, Wake always plays tight games. This one was MASSIVE for the tournament resumé of the Demon Deacons. Thankfully we DID take the ML and hopefully everyone else did too, because this line CLOSED Wake -2.5 or -3 depending on the spot. And there was a very tough 3 at the end of the game by Pittsburgh that covered the number for anyone who had the Panthers +3.5. Nonetheless, we got the dub and started the day 1-0
OU -2 vs. Vanderbilt (WIN) = Well OU did NOT look like the right side in the first half, as they got down by as many as 13. But they played about the best offensive half I’ve seen any team play all season in the 2nd half, scoring 61 points in 20 minutes. They ended up winning this game by 30 points. The Sooners were ultimately the right side in this one. This was just a massive game for the Sooner’s tournament hopes, needing a big win against a ranked team, and really just avoiding more losses in SEC play. Nice pick to start 2-0
UCF -1.5 vs. BYU (LOSS) = Well UCF controlled the game for a decent portion of the first half, leading by as many as 7 at one point. They never could get any separation, though, and this led to BYU hanging around. Still UCF had back-to-back possessions with under 5 minutes to play, up by 3. Those two possessions they had a wide open layup that was missed, and a kick out wide open 3 from their best shooter that was missed. If either of those shots go down, it’s very likely that they end up pulling out a win. Instead BYU got hot late, led by Richie Saunders (who finished with 22). They ended up losing by 6 (75-81). This UCF team is good, they’ve just struggled to finish and closeout games and that cost them here. Credit BYU for playing good ball & executing down the stretch.
Baylor -2 vs. Kansas (WIN) = I’m not going to say this was a lucky win, because Baylor was technically the right side from a post-game win expectancy. However, when you trail by 21 in a college basketball game, the odds of coming back and winning the game outright are quite low. And, that’s exactly what Baylor did. The Bears actually cut the lead down to a 2 point game midway through the second half, before Kansas regained a 9 point advantage with just 7 minutes left. But, Baylor hunkered down on defense, and got hot on the offensive end, finishing the game on a 29-9 run, to win by DOUBLE DIGITS.
St. Mary’s +1.5 vs. Gonzaga (WIN) = St. Mary’s controlled this game from the tip, building as big as a 14 point lead in the first half. The Gaels have traditionally struggled against the Zags, but this Gonzaga team is not nearly as good as any of their teams the past decade. That said, the Zags fought back. Trailing by 8 at halftime, they actually took as much as a 4 point lead in the second half. But this Gaels team answered every run Gonzaga had. That, along with some key stops late, and FINALLY knocking down some clutch FTs late allowed St. Mary’s to get the outright win as a short dog. And way MORE importantly, to get us to 4-1 on the day
Season Overall Record: 29-12 (70.7%)
College Hoops Best Bets (Saturday, 2/1/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 1, 2025 | 10:01 A.M. CST
Running late today, so just going to post the first ones without breakdowns. If need be I’ll post short BD’s for these before tip.
Best Bets:
1) Wake Forest ML (-125) vs. Pittsburgh
2) OU -2 vs. Vanderbilt
3) Baylor -2 (-120) vs. Kansas
4) UCF -1.5 vs. BYU
5) St. Mary’s +1.5 vs. Gonzaga
All Plays: 2-Star
Just Missed Card = NO Bet for these, just ones I considered/opinions/leans:
Nova -2.5 over Creighton, Ole Miss +6.5 vs. Auburn, NW +2.5 vs. Wisconsin, Oki State -1.5 vs. Utah, USC +4.5 vs. MSU, TTU/HOU Over 127.5, Stanford +5.5 @ SMU, ND/MIA Over 147,
College Hoops Best Bet (1/30/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 30, 2025 | 7:39 A.M.
Best Bet: Nebraska +4.5 vs. Illinois
Man has this Nebraska program taken a step back this year. Last season Fred Hoiberg really had the Huskers trending in the right direction. After 3 straight losing seasons to start his tenure in Lincoln, Hoiberg won 16 games in year 4, finishing .500 (16-16) on the season. Then last year, Hoiberg led the Huskers to the an incredible year, as they finished 23-11, which was the most wins in a single season for a Nebraska team since 1990. They finished 3rd in the Big 10 & reached the NCAA tournament for the first time in over a decade. While this season started off very well, the Huskers have gone on a BIG losing streak. And, while 12-8 isn’t a disastrous start to the season, that along with 2-7 in the conference sure won’t get you to the NCAA tournament. And yet, we’re going to back them here tonight.
Even though the Huskers have lost seven straight, I still have found some positives when watching this team play. Hoiberg sure hasn’t lost the locker room, they just aren’t executing at the level they were early in the season. Now, they have shown they can play with some really good teams. They have wins on the road at a ranked Creighton team (one of the toughest spots to play in the country), at home over a top 15 UCLA team, and a neutral floor beatdown of Indiana. Even the road losses in conference don’t look bad: @ Michigan State, @ Purdue, @ Wisconsin - those are all games that most teams in the Big 10 WOULD lose. So, we know that this team plays hard, they have the ability to beat good teams, and they’re playing at home, where traditionally they’ve been very good (although they’ve lost two straight).
My issue with this number on Nebraska’s home court, is this: if Illinois was playing really good basketball, like they were early in the season, I would understand this getting bet up from 3.5 to 4.5. But to get to 4.5 in their current form? I just can’t get to that number. I make this Illinois -1.5. This Fighting Illini team has been trending down lately, just as Nebraska has. They’ve lost 3 of their last 5 and 2 of their last 3. That stretch includes a 21 point HOME loss to Maryland.
What makes this Illinois team so hot/cold is that they rely HEAVILY on the three-point shot. 47.6% of their TOTAL field goal attempts are threes (22nd in country), while 34.6% of their total production comes from the three point shot (103rd in country). Yet, despite shooting that many triples, they are a terrible three-point shooting team. They shoot below 32% from beyond the arc on the season; that’s 262nd in country, and that’s out of 364 teams. Because of this reliance beyond the arc, they often have to rely on their defense and on offensive rebounding to stay in games when their threes aren’t falling (which is usually). The problem with this matchup for Illinois is that Nebraska is excellent at keeping opposing teams off the offensive glass (top 60 in country, 27.4% ORB%). So, if Nebraska is able to keep the Fighting Illini off the glass (which I believe they will be able to), they should have a great shot to stay in this game. Additionally, the Illini defense has not been as good over the past couple games. Last time out, they took on Northwestern, who came into that game outside the top 80 in offensive efficiency (one of worst in Big 10) while also playing at one of the slowest paces in the country. And yet, NW was able to put up 74 on that Illini defense. The Wildcats hit a whopping 10 threes in that game, and shot 40% from three in the game. The Illini controlled the entire game, but it wasn’t because of elite defense. The two games prior to that outing, the Illini gave up 91 on their home floor and 80 on the road at Michigan State (who is far from an offensive juggernaut).
With all that said: the way the Illini defense is trending, the fact that they rely heavily on the offensive glass where Nebraska is great, and the fact that we’re CATCHING 4.5 points at home in a very tough venue to play (yes it’s become very good HC advantage in Lincoln) - we’re going to go with the home dog here. Plus, this really is Nebraska’s season. If they can’t get a quad one win here, and they drop to 2-8 in conference play, they can basically kiss the NCAA Tournament goodbye tonight. They MUST win this game to stay in the mix. They are far from out of the fight, but they know they will be SEVERELY wounded with a loss tonight. Meanwhile, while this Illinois team is struggling, they won’t have the same desperation tonight, on the road, taking on an unranked team who’s on a 6-game losing streak (and Illinois is still ranked in the top 20, and it’s wild what that number next to your name will do for you mentally).
Official Pick: Nebraska +4.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Best Bet (1/29/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 29, 2025 | 4:33 P.M.
Overall Record: 24-10 (70.6%)
Best Bet Tonight: West Virginia +9.5 vs. Houston
This West Virginia team has had a rollercoaster season so far. They started off the year hot in the Battle 4 Atlantis, upsetting two top 25 teams in #24 Arizona and #3 Gonzaga. All signs pointed towards this team being a legitimate contender in the Big 12 at that point. Then their best player, Drake transfer Tucker Devries, went down with an injury (which is likely season ending). At that point, the Mountaineers season looked all but lost. However, after the loss of Devries, the Mountaineers rattled off 5 straight victories, including a 2-0 start to Big 12 play, and they went INTO Fogg Allen Fieldhouse and beat the #7 Jayhawks on the road. At that point, it felt like this WVU team would still be a force to be reckoned with in this conference, despite not having Devries. However, since that time they’re just 2-4, with one of those wins coming against Colorado, a team that is winless (0-9) in Big 12 play.
So why are we backing them here in this spot? Well, a couple of reasons. Number one, this team still has talent and they’ve shown they can play with some of the top teams in the country on a given night. In fact, they’ve really played up and down to the their competition a lot of this season. You look at that win at Kansas as one positive datapoint. But, then you see they also beat #2 Iowa State in Morgantown just three games ago. This team clearly still has fight left in them, and they’ve shown the ability to pull the big upset MULTIPLE times this season (4 wins over top 25 teams). Of their 4 upsets this season, 2 of them came as 6.5 point dogs (vs. ISU & vs. Arizona), one as a 13.5 point dog (@ Kansas), and one as a 15.5 point dog (vs. Gonzaga). So this team is no stranger to winning outright as a big underdog.
Then we look at the spot here. Houston is coming off one of the luckiest wins in the past decade in college basketball. The Cougars trialed by 6, at Kansas, with under a minute to play in regulation. It took Kansas taking a 5-second call with 15 seconds remaining (despite having two timeouts left), then FOULING away from the ball with 13 seconds left, and Houston’s Juwan Roberts making both free throws (despite being 54% on the season) just to force overtime. Then in overtime, the Jayhawks’ Dejuan Harris (83% FT shooter) was shooting 2 FTs, with KU up 6 with just 18 seconds remaining. He missed both FTs, Houston banged a deep three, stole the inbounds, and hit another three with 4 seconds left to tie the game. Kansas’ in game win probability in regulation was 98%. In overtime when shooting those two free throws, it was 99.9%. So you have the most emotional win you could possibly have, on the road, against your biggest competition in the conference. Now you have to play a second road game in a row, this time in Morgantown, against a team that has lost back-to-back games to inferior opponents, and 3 of their last 4 overall. It’s just a really poor spot for Houston, and a great spot for WVU.
Then you look at the matchup. Houston is the best defensive team in the country, metrically. That’s no surprise, as we tend to see that year in and year out according to KenPom. However, they are taking a West Virginia team that LOVES to shoot threes. They are top 30 in the country in percentage of FGs that are 3 pointers, as well as % of production coming from three pointers. Being heavily reliant on the three-ball really cranks up the variance, in terms of outcome of the game - if this team is hot from three, they significantly increase their chances of pulling a big upset, because we know they are going to take a ton of them. Additionally, as good as Houston is defensively, they are much better defending 2s than they are defending 3s. They are usually one of the top 5 perimeter defense teams in the country, however this season they’re 40th. That isn’t a bad spot to be, but it’s a farcry from where they’ve been the past half decade. And, if you watched the Kansas game this weekend, you can see why that’s the case. Houston gives up a ton more open looks from the perimeter than Cougar defenses of the past. I’ve seen this Houston team play multiple times, and from the eye test perspective, they just aren’t the same PERIMETER defense they usually are (which matches up with what the metrics show). I actually think they will finish even lower than they currently sit.
I expect this to be a low scoring, grinded out game, where both defenses play well, but West Virginia’s shooting from the perimeter keeps them in the game throughout. I truly believe the Mountaineers are a live dog here. We’re going to take the 9.5, but I want to sprinkle some on the ML as well, because if they get hot from three, there’s a real shot they win this one outright.
Official Pick: West Virginia +9.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Best Bets (1/28/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 28, 2025 | 4:14 P.M. CST
CBB Overall Record: 23-9 (71.9%)
Best Bets Tonight:
1) Kentucky +10.5 @ Tennessee
I’m breaking two of my rules with this one. I’m taking a road team in conference play once students are back on campus, AND I’m taking a public underdog. However, I just think this is a really good spot for Kentucky. AND, Tennessee is not a team that should be laying double digit points to teams who can score it at a high clip (which Kentucky absolutely can).
Both of these teams come in on mini “rough patches”, although every team in the SEC is going to have rough patches this year. It’s the most brutal conference I’ve seen since the old Big East. Kentucky is just 3-4 in the SEC thus far, and they are coming off back to back losses. They also lost two of their last three road games, with both losses coming to unranked SEC teams, including their most recent outing Saturday afternoon to Vanderbilt. However, both those losses were to good teams. Georgia is going to be an NCAA tournament team when it’s all said and done, as Mike White has done a tremendous job there. Additionally, Vandy had already beaten Tennessee this year and as of today IS ranked in the Top 25 of the AP Poll. Tennessee on the other hand, is coming off a really tough loss at Auburn on Saturday night. It was one of the more physical, grinded out games I’ve seen all season. They come into this matchup 4-3 in SEC play.
Now, while Kentucky is playing their second straight road game, it’s not as though they are traveling cross-country here. They are going from Nashville to Knoxville, which is about a 3 hour drive. So the travel really isn’t tough for the Wildcats. Tennessee, on the other hand is coming off that extremely physical game with Auburn. And, while I don’t believe normally taking teams on road trips is a good idea, getting this Tennessee team after that physical of a game is a big bonus for Kentucky. I mean, I’ve seen boxing matches that were less physical than that game. Now the Vols have to take on a very high powered offensive team in Kentucky (much different than what they saw Saturday).
Moreover, this number is crazy. It opened 9.5 and got to 10.5. I was shocked at the move. I made this 5.5. I understand that teams going on the road in this conference are prone to get beat bad. But this Kentucky team can really score, and if this becomes a high scoring affair, I expect Kentucky to be a very live dog. On the other hand, if this becomes a slow, grinded out game (which favors Tennessee), now the Vols are having to cover a number as big as 10.5 in a game that’s played in the 50s or 60s? It just doesn’t make sense. This Tennessee team isn’t good enough offensively to lay this big of a number to any team that is in the top 15 in offensive efficiency. Kentucky comes in 4th in the nation in that category. They are top 50 in both 2FG% and 3FG% (57.0% & 36.9% respectively).
Overall, this number is too big, Kentucky is too good offensively, and it’s a bad spot for Tennessee against a UK team hungry for a win (after b2b losses). We’re riding with UK here plus a big number, despite the fact that they are a public dog.
Official Pick: Kentucky +10.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
2) Dayton -2.5 vs. St. Bonaventure
Speaking of teams who have fell on tough times, both of these programs started the year hot and have been in a rut as of late, with St. Bonaventure ESPECIALLY dipping as of late. The Bony’s started the season off hot as could be, winning 14 of their first 15 games. Their lone loss in the first half of the season came against a very good Utah State team on a neutral floor. However, since conference play tipped off, the Wolves have struggled. In fact, it’s one of the bigger drop off’s I’ve seen of any team this season in college basketball. The Wolves have now lost 3 consecutive games and 5 of their last 6, dropping to just 3-5 in A10 play. They’ve gone from a team that looked like they would surely get an At-Large bid to the NCAA tourney, to a team that is going to need to win the A10 tourney to have any shot of playing in March.
Dayton has not been all that great in A10 play either. When we first saw the Flyers on a big stage early this season at the Maui Invitational, they were upsetting UCONN and competing with Iowa State, one of the favorites to win the National Title this season (lost 89-84 in a very tight game). However, the Flyers are just 4-4 in their last 8 games, and they are just one game above .500 in conference play, sitting at 4-3. The main worst stretch of their season came with 3 consecutive losses to George Washington, UMASS, and George Mason. However, the Flyers have gotten back on track recently, ending that losing streak and putting together three straight wins.
Overall, looking at this matchup, you have two teams trending in opposite directions. Despite the rough 3 game stretch for the Flyers, Dayton has righted the ship, and they are back on the right track on this winning streak. Meanwhile, the Bonnies just cannot seem to figure it out on the offensive end. They are solid defensively, but they have really struggled to score against teams much worse than this Dayton group. In their current 3 game losing streak, they lost all three games by at least 13 points, and they have a negative point differential of 45 in those games.
While I only made this game Dayton -3 (and the line is 2.5) it feels as though this Bonnies team is mentally gone. They have lost their confidence, and they are not going to find it in a game against the most talented team in the A10 who is starting to figure it out. We’re going to roll with a second road team here tonight, and you’ll absolutely never see me take two road teams the rest of the season.
Official Pick: Dayton -2.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops FREE Mid-Major PICK of the Night (1/27/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 27, 2025 | 7:58 P.M. CST
This is NOT an official play. I went 2-1 on my official plays Saturday. Saturday night it looked like we were going to go a perfect 3-0 and get back to 75% on the season (which is absurd). However, one of the craziest collapses I’ve seen in all my years of college basketball happened. Kansas (catching 1.5) had an 83% free throw shooter shooting 2 FTs with under 20 seconds to go, leading by 6. They missed both FTs, gave up a 3, turned it over, and gave up another 3, all in the final 18 seconds. Now, full disclosure, we also won on Texas ML and they trailed by 22 in the second half. So it absolutely evened out. However, with all the bad beats we’ve had over the years, after finally getting one to go your way, you don’t expect to give it back the same day.
Regardless, below is my free pick of the night. I’m going to try to release some more unofficial plays for the website going forward, just to provide more content. If you do play these as actual bets, I recommend doing so at a significantly lower size than you would play a normal play of mine.
Free Pick of the Night: Texas A&M CC +4.5 (1ST HALF) vs. McNeese State
This is the battle of the best two teams in the Southland Conference. McNeese comes into the game a perfect 9-0 in conference play, while A&M Corpus Christi comes in 7-2, sitting in 2nd place in the conference. In all likelihood, we will see these two teams playing each other again in the Southland Conference Tournament Championship in a little over a month, with a trip with the NCAA tournament on the line. And, while I expect this McNeese group to get back to the NCAA Tourney once again this season, tonight is a different story.
Yes A&M CC is the inferior team here, but not by as much as this line indicates. As good as McNeese has been over the past couple seasons, this team isn’t quite as good as last year’s team that a lot of people picked as a Cinderella team (only to see them blown out in round 1 by Gonzaga). On the other hand, this A&M CC program is no stranger to the NCAA tournament themselves. They’ve reached the Big Dance twice the last three seasons. Therefore, the Islanders are not going to come into this game intimidated by the talent of this McNeese team. They know this is the biggest game of the season, thus far, and they will be ready to roll.
The Islanders don’t have the greatest home court advantage in terms of crowd noise or attendance, but it is a bit of a weird trip to Corpus Christi, Texas. And, we’ve seen the Islanders have lots of success at home this season (and over the past 4 years). This year, the Islanders have just one loss at home, and that came nearly two months ago to Lamar. Additionally, last year when McNeese State traveled to Corpus, it took a buzzer beater for the Cowboys to escape with a ONE POINT win. They did get the outright W, but they failed to come anywhere near covering a number. And keep in mind, that was a much better version of this McNeese State team. They went 30-3 overall, 17-1 in Southland Conference play, and they won the Southland regular season & conference tourney.
In addition to the spot here, I also like the matchup. The Islanders of A&M CC are the far superior 3-point shooting team. Coming into this game they are top 90 in the country (out of 364 teams), knocking down 35.4% of their triples. On the other side, McNeese is just 215th in the country from beyond the arc, knocking down LESS than 33% of their threes. The Islanders, being at home, being the better shooting team, and playing a team in McNeese who’s very average defending the three (125th in country in opponent 3-point FG% Defense), should give A&M CC a decent advantage here. Obviously, three-point shooting is not the end-all, be-all in college basketball. However, in a spot where you are looking at a dog of this size, and trying to make a case for a live dog, getting the significantly better shooting team at home is a great positional play.
Now, I really think A&M Corpus Christi is a live dog here. However, because of the way McNeese plays, and the fact that they DO have a significant overall talent advantage here, I’m going to look to the FIRST HALF here. The main reason being, I BELIEVE if Texas A&M CC gets down big in the first half, they are going to get blown out anyway, and they will NOT cover 8.5. However, there is a world where A&M CC is up or covering at halftime and blows it. But, their best shot to win and cover is to keep it close or have a small lead at halftime. Therefore, catching 5 points, I think we’re getting great value taking them in the first half. Additionally, the Islanders are one of the absolute WORST free throw shooting teams in the country (362nd out of 364 teams). And if the game is close in the second half, FT shooting tends to play a role. McNeese isn’t GREAT from the line, but they shoot it around 72%, while A&MCC shoots it at an abysmal 60%. If you like this breakdown, and wanted to go with A&M CC FULL GAME, I have no argument against it, I just believe the FIRST HALF is a slightly better play. I made this game line 6.5, which is where it opened. It’s currently 8.5. So my numbers show 2 points of value. But again, let’s ride with the first half. Take the ISLANDERS plus the points in the first half. If you want to have a little more fun, throw a few bucks on them MONEYLINE at +300
FREE PICK OF THE NIGHT: Texas A&M Corpus Christi +5 1H
Play Rating: None (Free Play, Not Official Client Play)
College Basketball Best Bets (Saturday, 1/25/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 25, 2025 | 4:17 A.M. CST
Overall Record: 21-8
Best Bets Saturday:
1) Texas -120 (ML) vs. Texas A&M
2) Kansas State -1 vs. West Virginia
3) Kansas +1.5 vs. Houston
All Plays: 2-Star
College Hoops Best Bet (1/24/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 24, 2025 | 2:37 P.M. CST
Overall Record: 20-8
Best Bet: Purdue -4.5 vs. Michigan
Don’t have time for a long breakdown today, so will give quick take here. Purdue is coming off an upset loss at home. The Boilermakers RARELY lose at home, as Mackey Arena is one of the best home court advantages in CBB. The loss came at the hands of a very bad Ohio State team, and it was a game Purdue never should have lost. Usually, coming off a loss, going on the road to a tough opponent would be one spot to be careful, but not playing at home. There’s almost zero shot Purdue loses back-to-back home games at Mackey arena, in conference play. It just does not happen.
Additionally, Michigan is a very streaky team. They started off the season hot, before having a mid-season lull. They responded with a great start to conference play, starting a perfect 5-0, before dropping one to Minnesota on the road in overtime in their last outing (Minnesota came into that game 0-6 in the Big 10). Michigan lost that game at the buzzer on basically a half court shot. The Wolverines had to sit on that tough loss for over a week, as that was last Thursday. Now they go on the road once again, taking on a more talented, well-coached Purdue team, out for blood after that last loss. I love Dusty Maye, and he’s going to turn Michigan into a National Championship level program, but just not this year.
I’m not sure why this number is so short to be honest. I made this Purdue -6.5. Give me the Boilers at home to bounce back and take care of the Wolverines. I would THINK this gets to 5, based on my numbers, but I’ve not seen any indication of a move that way to this point. The game starts in about 4 and a half hours. Either way let’s lay the 4.5 with Purdue here.
Official Pick: Purdue -4.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Best Bet (1/22/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 22, 2025 | 6:43 P.M. CST
CBB Overall Record: 20-7
Best Bet Tonight: Ole Miss -3.5 vs. Texas A&M
Ole Miss has been one of the better surprises this season. Chris Beard was an elite basketball coach when at Texas Tech and during the start of his tenure at Texas. Obviously the circumsanstances of his exit in Austin were unfortunate, but without clear details of what actually happened, he took over the Ole Miss program the following season, and hasn’t looked back. And to be honest, he’s building this program just like he did in Lubbock. He has Mark Adams (old assistant at Tech) back with him in Oxford, and they’ve employed the famous “No-Middle Defense” that the Red Raiders were so good at under Beard. That along with some talented players, good shooting, and high effort guys have led Ole Miss to a 5-1 start to SEC play. Their lone loss came against Mississippi State ON THE ROAD in overtime in their last outing. I like them to bounce back here against the Aggies.
Although A&M did get Wade Taylor back, they aren’t the same Aggies team we saw at the end of the year last season with those dynamic guards. They are still elite on the offensive glass, but they are abysmal shooting the ball. They rank outside the top 300 teams in Division 1 in three point shooting, hitting on less than 30.5% of their shots from beyond the arc. They are highly reliant on creating extra possessions and on getting to the free throw line. This is a poor matchup for the Aggies as the Rebels are elite defensively and unless A&M has an uncharacteristic shooting night against a very good perimeter defense, I don’t see how they score enough to hang with Ole Miss.
Official Pick: Ole Miss -3.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
NFL Playoff Best Bet (Divisional Round)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 16, 2025 | 4:42 P.M. CST
Best Bet
2 Team, 6 Point Teaser: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 & Buffalo Bills +7.5
We are going back to the well with another playoff teaser. My teasers have been perfect over the past 7 weeks so let’s keep the streak going. Keep in mind, the BILLS number here is the most important thing. We need the Bills at +7.5 & it’s worth it to lay -120 at a 6.5 point teaser if necessary. There are plenty of Bills +1.5 out there. If you can get the Bills to +7.5 and the Chiefs are -2, that’s fine as well. In that case, don’t use a 6.5 point teaser, as Chiefs -1.5 is nearly identical, value wise, to Chiefs -2.
Overall, these are simple plays. The Kansas City Chiefs are a significant mismatch for the Houston Texans, who really struggled offensively against the LA Chargers. The scoreboard shows a blowout, but that game was anything but close for the majority of the contest. The Texans trailed 6-0 & the Chargers had the ball inside the Texans 40-yard line late in the second quarter. Had Justin Herbert not thrown a horrible interception, there’s a decent chance the Chargers go into halftime up 9-0 or possibly 13-0. Then, even on the ensuing drive, the Texans were facing a 3rd and 16 and CJ Stroud dropped the snap. The ball miraculously bounced back up to him in stride and instead of throwing it away he kept the play alive and found a receiver for 36 yards. That play truly sparked the Texans offense, as they went onto score a TD on that drive. Now, kudos to the Texans defense for keeping them in the game while the offense struggled. However, the game really went completely sideways in the third quarter when two dropped passes led to a pick-six and another pick that was nearly returned for a TD. Those two plays essentially ended the game for all intents & purposes. Regardless, this is just an incredibly difficult matchup for the Texans. They are not equipped, from a talent standpoint, to beat this KC team AT HOME, let alone in the cold of Arrowhead. The score may end up within the 7.5 points, but it will not be close.
Leg number two, we’re going to the Buffalo Bills +7.5. Honestly, I’d take either of these teams above a TD in this game, as I expect this to be a very tight, one-score game. However, I prefer the Bills over the Ravens. I actually make this game Bills -2. And I considered giving out the Bills +1 as a best bet as well (I still might). But there’s a very small chance that this game is a blowout either way. The Bills are a perfect 9-0 at home this season, 15-2 the last two years, and the two losses have both come by less than 7. So, the Ravens would have to do something that hasn’t been done in a LONG TIME; beat the Bills with Josh Allen in Buffalo by 2 scores. I just don’t see that happening. I think this is the Bills year. But, even if it’s not, I see the Ravens winning a close game if it doesn’t go Buffalo’s way. So we’re taking the best of the number and getting this above a TD for leg number 2.
Official Pick: KC Chiefs -1.5 + Buffalo Bills +7.5
Play Rating: 3-Star
College Basketball Best Bets (1/16/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 16, 2025 | 4:32 P.M.
Last Night: 0-2 | Overall Season: 19-7 (71%)
Best Bet
Michigan Team Total OVER 77.5 vs. Minnesota (2-Star)
College Hoops Best Bets (1/15/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 15, 2025 | 4:29 P.M. CST
Last Night: 1-0 (Arizona/Baylor Over 147) | College Basketball Record: 19-5 (79.2%)
Best Bets Tonight:
1) Oklahoma -2 vs. Texas
Both teams come into this game DESPERATE for a conference win, as both sit winless in SEC play (both 0-3). Oklahoma had a phenomenal start to the season with 13 straight wins to open the year. They were ranked as high as top 10 in the country, but they’ve now dropped 3 consecutive games. Despite losing three straight, OU has some great wins on their schedule thus far. They have wins over Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan (all 3 of which are tournament teams). Additionally, the 3 losses the Sooners suffered were all at the hands of tournament teams as well, and two of the three came on the road. Alabama and Georgia (the two road losses) are teams with a combined record of 26-5. Their other loss came at home to 13-4 Texas A&M, a game the Sooners led by 9 at halftime, and very well should have won.
Texas on the other hand, comes in 11-5, also 0-3 in conference play. Despite having 11-wins overall and a decent record, the Longhorns played a very weak schedule in the non-conference. Moreover, the only teams ranked in the top 35 in the kenpom they’ve played, they lost to; they are 0-5 vs. the KP top 35. Their best win, according to KenPom, was a win over St. Joseph’s (who is ranked 91st in KP). Every single time the Longhorns have stepped up in class, they’ve lost. And to be honest, only one of those games was remotely close. They lost to Ohio State & UCONN in the non-conference & neither game did the Longhorns really compete. Their first conference opponent was Texas A&M on the road, who they lost to by 20. The final score against Auburn looks like the game was close, but Auburn led by 20 late in the second half and took their foot off the gas entirely, allowing UT to comeback and make that score look closer than the game actually was; Texas was DOMINATED in that game for 34 of the 40 minutes in their own building. They then got to play Tennessee at home the next time out; and they got Tennessee after a 30+ point loss for the Vols where their confidence was at an all-time low. Texas had every opportunity to win the game as Tennessee could not make a jump shot to save their life early in the game. But of course, the Longhorns lack of late game execution cost them the win.
Lastly, we look at the factors beyond the player matchups here. This game is being played in Norman. And while the Sooners don’t have the greatest home court advantage in college basketball, students should be back on campus at this time and we should see the arena sold out for what is a very important game for their team (not to mention it’s a rivalry game). Additionally, when we look at the coaching matchup, there’s a DISTINCT advantage to Oklahoma. Rodney Terry is easily the worst coach in the SEC, and quite possibly in the entire group of teams throughout Power 4 conferences. He has his job, solely due to Chris Beard scandal, and the Horns have gotten worse each year since then. On the other side, Porter Mosure is one of the more underrated coaches in the country. I believe it’s only a matter of time before he has Oklahoma competing for conference titles. He’s obviously been to a final four with Loyola Chicago, and his in game coaching is no match for Rodney Terry. I love everything about this matchup, as Texas will rely solely on 1v1 & high pick and roll, while OU will be running good offense and sets to get guys great looks.
Official Pick No. 1: Oklahoma Sooners -2
Play Rating: 2-Star
2) Davidson -1 vs. La Salle
We’re going to look to fade a team who overperformed over the weekend. The Explorers came into the weekend 8-7, facing a St. Bonnies team on their home floor; a team that had been very good so far this season. But La Salle was able to hang in there punch for punch with the Wolves of St. Bonaventure, taking them to OT. Late in the game the Bonnies had the ball and a 2 point lead, and their starting PG missed a WIDE OPEN layup, as well as an easy tip in off that miss to give the Bonnies a 4-point lead, and likely end the game. La Salle gathered the rebound and held for one shot, trailing by two. After the ball was poked out of the hands of guard Deuce Jones’ hands, the Explorers were forced to call timeout with just 4.1 seconds remaining. Out of the timeout a busted play resulted in the ball finding Jones again, and Jones threw up a running, one footed three pointer that somehow banked in at the buzzer, to give La Salle the upset victory over the Bonnies.
Diving back into the score of that game, La Salle really out performed their season long metrics. They shot 39% from the three point line, making a total of 13 threes (including the game winner). Heading into that game, the Exploreres were 250th in the country making less than 33% of their threes on the season. Additionally, La Salle does a good job taking care of the basketball (55th in country in TO% coming into that game). However, they took it to another level vs. the Wolves, as they turned it over just 6 times the ENTIRE game, and that included a 5 minute overtime period. They were also outside the top 250 in the country in TO% forced, and yet they were able to put up 27 points off TO’s in this game. So, overall point being, this team did a lot of things they don’t normally do. Yet, they still needed a running, one-footed, banked three pointer at the buzzer to beat St. Bonaventure. And while the Bonnies are a good team, they aren’t anything SPECIAL, and probably played their worst defensive game of the season.
With all that said, we now have this team who clearly overperformed last time out, coming off an emotional win, as a huge underdog. Now they go back home, and they are taking on a very disciplined Davidson team, but not one that you’re going to get excited to play against. Davidson plays very boring basketball. They want to play at a very slow pace (248th in adjusted tempo). They are going to make this a slow, grinded out game; they’re going to run their offense, run the clock and get great looks. They don’t turn the ball over (top 25 in country in TO%) and they shoot the ball at a high percentage overall and from three. La Salle is going to try to play fast and speed the tempo up, but it’s much easier to slow a team down than it is to speed them up. Not to mention this is a huge mismatch in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency. Davidson comes in as a top 85 offense (out of 334 teams), where as La Salle is outside the top 175 in defensive efficiency. I expect Davidson to have significant success on offense. And, while Davidson is not great defensively (outside top 180 in defensive efficiency), I’m not sure this La Salle team has enough to outperform expectations for a second consecutive games, especially off that emotional high. Let’s roll with Davidson here at a cheap price.
Official Pick No. 2: Davidson -1
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Best Bet (1/14/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 14, 2025 | 5:55 P.M. CST
College Basketball Season Record: 18-5
Best Bet Tonight:
Baylor Bears @ Arizona Wildcats OVER 147 (-110)
Summary: This game features two teams trending up in the Big 12. Arizona has had a rollercoaster year so far in Tommy Lloyd’s 4th season. The Wildcats had their worst start since Lloyd took over this program back in 2021, going 4-5 through their first 9 games. This included losses to two teams in the Cat’s new conference (Big 12). Fortunately for Arizona, those games came in a tournament early in the season, thus neither loss counted towards conference play. Since Big 12 play officially tipped off, Arizona is a perfect 4-0, and they’ve now won 6 consecutive games overall. It feels like they’ve steadied the ship at last. Baylor had a similar start, although they did not get in as big of a hole as Arizona did. The Bears were 5-3 through their first 8 games. However, they’ve won 6 of their last 7 games, with their lone loss coming on the road against the #3 ranked Iowa State Cyclones.
Thus both teams come in playing good basketball, and especially playing good on the offensive end. Both teams come in ranked in the top 20 in Offensive Efficiency (Baylor 15th, Arizona 17th). Additionally, both come in ranked outside the top 25 in the country in Defensive Efficiency. Now neither team is BAD defensively, but they are certainly not elite (Baylor 26th, Arizona 40th). So we have two teams coming in playing good basketball, both of which are very talented on the offensive end of the floor, but have struggled to fully put it together on the defensive end.
When you look at the pace of play Baylor likes to slow it down much more than Arizona. The Bears play at a a pace in the bottom 1/3rd of the country, while Arizona plays at a very fast pace (56th in country in adjusted tempo). Arizona especially likes to push the pace at home. In fact, the last 4 home games the Wildcats have played, the games have averaged 164.2 points, which is far beyond the number we need tonight (147). Although Baylor does like to play at a slow pace on both sides, they are much more likely to morph to their opponents’ tempo than Arizona is, especially on the road. I believe the Bears are going to run with the Wildcats tonight and push the tempo. They certainly have the talent & athletes to do so with VJ Edgecombe and Jeremy Roach. I see this as a very up tempo game and possibly turning into a shootout with the two sides trading buckets late.
Let’s Roll with the OVER tonight. It’s come down a touch, which is weird to me. I would think it has to do with Baylor’s pace of play, but that stat is skewed based on opponents and location of play. Take the best of the number, but 147 is still out there.
Official Pick: Baylor @ Arizona OVER 147 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Stars
NFL Playoff Best Bets: Round 1 (1/11/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 11, 2025 | 12:02 A.M. CST
Best Bet 2-Team, 6.5 Point Teaser: Baltimore Ravens -3 & Buffalo Bills -3
I don’t normally like giving out a -120 bet unless I feel there’s a significant edge (obviously you have to pick at a higher rate at 20% juice). However, I think this is the best bet on the board in round 1 that’s going to be a legitimate non-sweat. Let’s dive into each of the two picks:
Ravens -3 vs. Steelers:
Let’s start with the Baltimore Ravens. Look the Pittsburgh Steelers have been REELING down the stretch. My favorite thing is to bet is when my in-season projections from weeks prior align with a pick that I like currently; when I get that combo it usually bodes very well. Back-to-back wins over the Bengals & Browns put the Steelers at 10-3, but it was clear that this Steelers team was much worse than their record indicated. Not only had Pittsburgh won multiple games that they did not deserve to win, but their supposedly ELITE defense got shredded by the Joe Burrow & the Bengals. The next game that same defense gave up 300 yards to the Browns and Jameis Winston and only won the game by margin due to Famous Jameis turnovers.
Looking at their last four games I predicted the Steelers would finish the season 0-4, MAYBE 1-3. And that’s exactly what they did. They lost 4 consecutive games to end the regular season. The defense looked average in those 4 games and the offense looked putrid, especially with George Pickens out. Even with Pickens back, in a MUST WIN game to avoid dropping from the 5 seed to the 6 seed (difference between going to Houston and going to Baltimore) playing against arguably the WORST defense in the league in the Cincinnati Bengals, AT HOME, that same Steelers offense mustered just 17 points. And honestly, 17 points gives them more credit than they deserve. The Steelers finished the game at 3.4 yards per pass, 3.2 yards per rush, and a horrific 3.3 yards per play. It was a spot that if you have an offense they WILL show up, and they didn’t.
Then you look at the fact that the Steelers also PLAYED the Ravens in one of their four final games. That was a game that if Pittsburgh won they controlled the division and a path to a home playoff game. The Ravens won by 17 points. They outgained the Steelers by over 100 total yards, and by 1.5 yards per play. That vaunted Steeler’s defense allowed Lamar Jackson and company to average nearly 7 yards per play in not great weather. And, it was a balanced attack.
While the Steelers finished the season with 4 consecutive losses, the Ravens finished with 4 consecutive wins. These are two teams headed in complete opposite directions. But what really impressed me the last 4 games was the Baltimore Ravens defense. This was a secondary that was NOT GOOD for most of the season, despite having an elite run defense. And yet the final 4 games the Ravens were awesome on the defensive side. As a whole, they gave up less than 11 points per game the last 4 outings. Now, they did play some of the bottom offenses in the league, but you have to take into account that offenses like that we’re torching this Ravens secondary early in the season. AND, you have to take into account that this Pittsburgh offense IS ALSO A BOTTOM OFFENSE. Even if the Ravens were to revert back to some of their previous woes, I’m not sure this Steelers offense has the ability to take advantage of it. Even in the first matchup in Pittsburgh earlier this season, a matchup won by the Steelers (18-16), Pittsburgh averaged just 4.1 yards per play and they were outgained by the Ravens by 2.0 yards per play. Russell Wilson threw for just 205 yards and a INT, zero TDs. They won the game due to Ravens mistakes (12 penalties and 3 TO’s). In my opinion, that’s the ONLY way the Steelers keep this REMOTELY close: the Ravens would have to have won of their worst offensive outings of the season, while the Steelers would have to play one of their BEST. I just don’t see it happening. And that’s why we’re going to tease this to the key of 3.
Part 2: Bills -3 vs. Broncos
The Broncos are a great story this season. They had a bottom five defense in the NFL last season; we saw them give up 70 points to the Miami Dolphins early in the 2023 campaign. And through the first half of the year, they had become one of the leagues TOP defenses. You had the worst trade in NFL history, with Denver giving Russell Wilson that massive contract, and yet he was as bad as you could be last season. They get a rookie QB coming in, who nobody thought was any good, and he ends the year likely second in OROY voting. These things all contributed to the Broncos making the playoffs for the first team in a half decade. Great for Bo Nix, and Sean Payton, and all the Denver fans. Unfortunately their run will come to an end Sunday, as they get matched up with who I believe is the SB favorite in the Buffalo Bills
This Bills team is on an absolute mission this year. Josh Allen IS the MVP (and he WILL win the award). There’s been absolutely nobody better in the entire NFL this year. Allen has carried a team with no-name receivers (at least before they added Amari Cooper). But this Bills team is more than that. Joe Brady has developed a very balanced offense featuring James Cook out of the backfield, and mixing in lots of Josh Allen runs. And that’s all great, before adding in the home field advantage. This is by far the toughest place in the NFL to play when it comes playoff time. That place is going to be filled and absolutely rocking from the jump. The Bills were a perfect 8-0 at home this season, and they beat teams much better than the Denver Broncos.
Overall, it’s just an impossible spot for a rookie QB and an overachieving team. They may have had a shot against the Houston Texans. Possibly even the Baltimore Ravens if the weather held up and no Zay Flowers. But this Broncos team has no shot of keeping this close. I was considering laying the entire 9.5 but I believe for purposes of avoiding a backdoor sweat, we’re just going to make this leg two of the teaser and ride with the Bills -3.
Official Pick: Ravens -3 | Bills -3 (-120)
Play Rating: 2-Stars
CFP Orange Bowl Semi Final Best Bet (1/9/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 9, 2025 | 9:45 A.M. CST
Best Bet:
Notre Dame PK vs. Penn State
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Best Bets (1/8/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 8, 2025 | 4:27 P.M. CST
Last Night’s Wagers: 2-0
Tonight’s Best Bets:
1) Villanova PK vs. UCONN
2) Arkansas -3.5 vs. Ole Miss
Both Plays: 2-Stars
College Hoops Best Bets (1/7/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 7, 2025 | 3:37 P.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) Florida -3.5 vs. Tennessee
2) Georgia +1.5 vs. Kentucky
Both Plays: 2-Stars
NFL Best Bet Sunday Games (1/5/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 4, 2024 | 11:15 P.M. CST
Best Bet: 2-Team, 6 Point Teaser (Chargers -.5 | Seahawks -1)
Week 18 in the modern day NFL is all about identifying which teams are motivated to win and which teams are not. Sometimes it’s simple, where teams are sitting their starters. Other times, you have to identify whether teams are going to try to win when it’s actually advantageous for them to lose.
Chargers -6.5 to -.5 vs Raiders: Yes, the Chargers have already clinched a playoff birth heading into the final week. However, with the results of the Bengals/Steelers game in, we now know EXACTLY what the Chargers are playing for. If Los Angeles LOSES to the Raiders tomorrow, the Chargers will fall to the 6 seed, which means they would be going on the road to Baltimore to play the AFC North Champion Ravens. Keep in mind, the Chargers already played the Ravens once this year, and it was all Baltimore (and that game was in L.A.) On the other hand, if the Chargers win tomorrow, they will be locked into the #5 seed, which would in turn send them to HOUSTON to play the Texans. The Texans have been in a landslide the past month, with CJ Stroud continuing to struggle, along with serious health concerns on both the OL and in the wide receiver room. Basically, my point is that playing the Texans indoors, compared to playing at Baltimore in cold weather for a west coast team is a MASSIVE difference. So the Chargers will be very motivated here. On the other hand, it’s possible Antonio Pierce knows he’s fired, in which case he will be trying to win this game for his guys. However, the Raiders have no trouble losing games they’re trying to win. They lost 10-straight during the season, and their only wins in the past 14 weeks came against Mac Jones and the 4-win Jaguars and Spencer Rattler who lost every game he’s started for the Saints (0-6). So even if the Raiders come in motivated to win here (which they SHOULD NOT BE because it hurts their draft position), they just don’t have enough to compete with a locked in Chargers team, who’s playing for something. I thought this line was too low.
Seahawks -7 to -1 @ Rams: The Seahawks have nothing to play for in terms of playoff positioning, and the Rams do. With a loss and a Bucs win (TB is a 13 point favorite tomorrow vs. Saints), the Rams would drop to the #4 seed and would square off with the loser of the Vikings/Lions Sunday Night matchup. Meaning, a loss could result in playing a 14-win team rather than a 10 or 11 win team. Still the Rams will be sitting all their major offensive weapons in this game, including starting QB Matthew Stafford. Jimmy G will be getting the nod at QB. Now Seattle has plenty of incentives to fill, which is partially why I like the Seahawks here. Geno Smith, particularly, has a shot to make up to six million bucks in bonuses; and, one of those bonuses is a 2 million dollar bump for winning 10-games. So Geno has every incentive in the world to go out and play his best game of the season, even though they have no shot at the post-season. It also gives head coach Mike McDonald a chance to get to 10-wins in his first season as head coach in Seattle. Although making the playoffs was likely his goal, 10-wins in the NFL in your first year is without a doubt a success. With that motivation and the Rams sitting the majority of their key guys, I don’t see how LA wins this game. It would take significant give up by that Seattle defense. I like the Seahawks here so that’s leg 2
Official Pick: Chargers -.5 | Seahawks -1 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
Best Bet NFL Afternoon/Sunday Night Football Teaser (12/29/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | December 29, 2024 | 1:52 P.M. CST
Top Teaser of the Week: Green Bay Packers +7 | Atlanta Falcons +10.5
Play Rating: 2-Star