College Hoops Best Bets (2/8/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 7, 2025 | 7:24 P.M. CST

Overall Record: 32-15 (68.1%)

Best Bets:

1) Missouri -2.5 vs. Texas A&M: I gave this out last night on my early bird post, to get ahead of the line move. It’s currently 4.5. Not a bet at 4.5 If it gets back below 4, go ahead and fire away

2) Clemson +7.5: vs. Duke: Also Gave this one out last night, we’re starting to see this trend to 7. Grab it ASAP. It’s good to +7, but not below 7

3) FAU @ Tulsa OVER 149.5: These are two of the worst defensive teams in the country; both rank towards the bottom of the NCAA in opponent Points Per Possession. FAU has a top 70 offense, while neither team ranks in the top 215 in defensive efficiency. FAU pushes the pace, and this could turn into a track meet

4) UTSA +1.5 vs. ECU: UTSA has been playing much better basketball lately. They went on the road and beat North Texas, who was undefeated in AAC play coming into that game. They followed up with what should’ve been a big home upset over Tulane, but squandered a 9 point lead in the final 2 minutes to lose by 1. UTSA has played well at home and they’re gelling much better right now. Going with the hot hand, even though metrically it’s a pick em.

5) Kansas State +5.5 vs. Kansas: This one is simple; two teams trending in opposite directions. K state has a had a very poor season but they’ve been a different team the past two weeks. Kansas has been awful on the road. We’re backing the dog in this rivalry game

6) Washington 1H ML (-115) vs. Northwestern: Washington has been playing much better basketball as of late, they just tend to collapse in the second half. I had a play on them in the first half this week against Nebraska and they led big at halftime and lost outright. I like them in this matchup, with NW shorthanded dealing with lots of recent injuries. Let’s back the Huskies but in the first half only.

7) UK -10.5 vs. South Carolina: This is just a game that UK comes out and SPANKS South Carolina. They are the worst team in the SEC, but it’s a terrible spot for them. Kentucky gets Lamont Butler back, they’re at home, and their off back-to-back losses. They need this game like blood, and they’re not going to let up late, unleashing their anger from the past two losses on the Gamecocks.

8) Creighton -1 vs. Marquette: I gave this out in the early bird & it’s moved to -2 now. Could see it getting even higher. When you get the Blue Jays taking on a ranked team at home in Big East play and they are laying less than 3 it’s an AUTO bet. They are nails at home under McDermott. Simple.

All Plays: 2-Units

Additional Opinions (Non-Official):

Vanderbilt -2.5 over Texas, Florida +9.5 @ Auburn, Iowa +5.5 vs. Wisconsin, Oklahoma +5.5 over Tennessee, App State +5.5 @ Ohio, Houston @ Colorado OVER 128.5, Pittsburgh @ UNC OVER 153.5, Cal +2.5 vs. Wake, Mississippi State +1.5 @ UGA

College Basketball EARLY BIRD Pick, Saturday Slate

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 7, 2025 | 7:24 P.M. CST

These lines are going to MOVE significantly tomorrow, and they are currently available at major sportsbooks. So I’m going to give out some plays below that I KNOW will move in our favor. I will still have an official post tomorrow morning with best bets. Best of luck

Best Bets (Early Bird Specials)

1) Missouri -2.5 vs. Texas A&M

2) Creighton -1 vs. Marquette

3) Clemson +7.5 vs. Duke

Play Ratings: All 2-Stars

College Hoops Best Bet (2/7/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 7, 2025 | 12:04 P.M. CST

Overall Record: 32-14 (69.6%)

• Probably caught a bit of a break last night, as Ohio State trailed most of the way, and came back from down 11 late in the second half; they also banked in the go-ahead three in the final 15 seconds. But, we were do after a couple of bad beats and that tough push from NW a few nights back after leading by 15 with 9 minutes left due to their best player getting injured and missing the final 8 minutes of the game. Regardless, back to work tonight, trying to get back above 70%

Best Bet: UCONN -3 vs. St. Johns

This line opened 2.5 and is already seeing money coming in on the Huskies. I anticipate this is going to get to 3.5 the way it’s moved, but we’ll say. I would grab the 3 now, as I don’t see St. John’s money coming in from the public late. Regardless, let’s dive into the matchup and spot here.

There’s no hiding that this UCONN team hasn’t been great this season. Obviously, there was going to be a significant downtick for this program this season, coming off back-to-back national titles, and more importantly LOSING most of their roster. They lost Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle, Cam Spencer, and Tristan Newton all to the NBA Draft, with two of the four going in the top 10. That was 4 of their 5 starters from last year’s National Title team, and they accounted for nearly 70% of the team’s offensive production on the season. All that said, the Huskies still sit 16-6 (8-3 in Big East), tied for 3rd in the loss column in their conference. And, with a win tonight they’d be just one game out of first place in their conference, while holding tiebreakers over 2 of the other top 3 teams.

Additionally, they’ve played most of the season with one of their best players out. Liam McNeeley, the 5-star freshman for the Huskies, has been out over a month. BUT the great news is he is GOING TO PLAY tonight for the first time since January 1st. McNeely has been dealing with a bad high ankle sprain, but he is supposedly 100% good to go tonight. It felt like UCONN held him out longer than necessary, knowing they could get by without him. They just wanted to make sure that once he was back there was not going to be a high risk of re-injury. I also trust Dan Hurley above all else, getting a guy like that back in shape. I don’t feel McNeely returning tonight will be at any disadvantage from not playing the past month. McNeely was their third leading scorer (13.8 PPG) and second leading rebounder on the team when he went out. So his presence will be a welcome site for UCONN fans.

In terms of this specific matchup, we have one of the best offensive teams in the country going up against one of the best defensive teams in the country. UCONN comes in ranked 10th in Offensive Efficiency, while St. John’s comes in ranked 6th in Defensive Efficiency. However, keep in mind, the Huskies built that top 10 offensive ranking while missing their 3rd leading scorer. So, there’s a good chance that UCONN ends the year a top 5 offense in the country. Looking at the metrics, it’s very much a strength vs. strength matchup. UCONN comes in 7th in the nation in Effective FG%, while St. John’s is ranked 22nd in the country in EFG% defense. Both teams are specificially good inside the paint: UCONN 8th in 2FG% (shooting nearly 59%) vs. St. John’s Defense ranked 6th in 2FG% Defense (holding teams to 43%). Overall, a lot of these metrics looking at UCONN’s “O” vs. St. John’s defense are going to look like a wash. In that case, you have to give the slight edge to the offense, because we know in today’s day and age great offense beats great defense a lot of the time.

However, the key metric for me, examining this matchup, comes on the other side of the ball (UCONN Defense vs. SJU Offense). This St. John’s team is HISTORICALLY bad shooting THREES for a team that has had THIS MUCH success. The Johnnies currently sit atop the Big East with just one conference loss, and if they were to hold on and win the Big East they would go down as the worst three-point shooting team to win a power conference in over a decade. They currently sit 340th in the country out of 364 teams in three point percentage, shooting an abysmal 29.4%. They are BETTER shooting it inside the arc at 152nd in the nation, but they aren’t GOOD. This SJU’s team just is NOT an efficient offense, and they don’t shoot it well from anywhere. I mean, even from the FT line they shot sub-70% and they’re 288th nationally in FT%. They rely heavily on their defense and scoring ENOUGH inside the arc. Well, fortunately for UCONNN that’s exactly what they do VERY WELL. They do NOT turn the ball over at a high clip, and they are EXCELLENT defending shots INSIDE THE ARC. The Huskies have just a 16.2% TO% on the season, which ranks in the top 25% of the nation in taking care of the ball. And, they are top-20 NATIONALLY in opponent 2FG%. So, the two areas St. John’s really LIVES and thrives happen to be two areas that UCONN is very good AGAINST. Where UCONN struggles defensively is defending the three-point line; they are allowing teams to shoot a ridiculous 36.8% from three (328th worst 3FG% defense in nation). Well, it’s hard to see a world where St. John’s magically is able to knock down three’s, something they haven’t shown an ability to do all year, regardless of the quality of defense they play. The Johnnies barely even take threes, relative to the rest of the Big East. They are dead last in the conference in 3FGAs, 3FG%, & 3FG production. In fact, they get only 22.5% of their TOTAL PRODUCTION from three point makes, which is the 8th lowest rate in the country.

This specific matchup is TERRIBLE for St. John’s. One last tidbit of information; UCONN plays at an extremely SLOW pace. St. John’s on the other hand, wants to push the pace and play fast (at least on offense). It’s much harder to speed a team down than it is to slow a team down. Usually the slower team controls the pace. AND, this is a home game for UCONN where it tends to be easier to control pace of play. I just think this is a tough spot for the Johnnies. UCONN is a bad matchup for Rick Patino’s bunch, and UCONN needs this to remain in the hunt for a Big East title. It’s a HUGE home game for the Huskies and it’s going to be ROCKING in there. And, they get their 5-star freshman stud back tonight to help their offense, and their rebounding, considering they are not overly large this season. I really like UCONN in this spot. Get it before it gets to 3.5. Back the Huskies as they get a big win tonight

Official Pick: UCONN -3 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops Best Bet (2/6/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 6, 2025 | 4:26 P.M. CST

Overall Season Record: 31-14 (68.9%)

Best Bet: Ohio State -1 vs. Maryland

It’s hard to win on the road in big conference consistently. If you look at major conferences over the past 5 years, it’s become extremely difficult to win consistently in hostile environments. I’ve utilized this to my advantage in college basketball for multiple years now, which is why you rarely see me take a road team (there has to be significant value). Not to say teams can’t win on the road, but in the long run, it’s difficult to have success. That’s why we’re going to fade a road team tonight - we’re fading the Maryland Terrapins. The Terps have been a pleasant surprise this season, in Kevin Willard’s fourth year. He’s finally got this team playing up to it’s potential, and they’ve got plenty of talent.

They come into this game on a 4-game win streak as well, with two of those wins coming on the road at Illinois and at Indiana. Now, while the Illinois win is impressive on paper, essentially the Terps got an easy win because Illinois had a horrific shooting night from beyond the arc; and they are a team that is completely reliant on the three-ball to win games. So going 6/28 was a death sentence in itself, but then you throw in 16 TO’s (10 of which were unforced), and that’s how you get to a blowout loss at home. That said, the other win was at Indiana, a game the Terps should’ve lost, but were bailed out by the Hoosiers with poor late game execution. Overall in Big 10 play, the Terps are just 2-4 away from home. So they’re going to try to win their third straight road game, after starting the season 0-4 away from home in conference play. Winning three games in a row on the road is already tough, let alone for teams who have traditionally struggled in those venues.

Additionally, Ohio State is play good basketball right now. After starting Big 10 play off just 2-5, they’ve won 3 of their last 4 games, including a very impressive ROAD WIN at Purdue (Mackey Field House is quite possibly the toughest venue to play at in the country). So they’ve been playing their best basketball as of late, that’s for sure. Their last outing was a loss; but, it was a road game at Illinois, and that was a game Illinois HAD to have after dropping 3 of 4. Ohio State didn’t play poorly, they just really struggled INSIDE the arc. They were 11/23 from three (48%), made 14/15 free throws (93%), and had just 5 TO’s. But they were awful from 2FGs, shooting 32% from inside the arc. That cost the game, along with the fact that Illinois got to the FT line DOUBLE the times OSU did. So I look at that game and try to see if their season long metrics show why that happened. And, well Ohio State isn’t a poor two-point shooting team. They aren’t ELITE, but they shoot 53.4% on the season. Going into that Ohio State game they were in the top 25% of the country in 2FG%, and even with that poor outing, they still sit top 50 in the country in Effective FG%. So, I would be very surprised to see Ohio State struggle like that in the paint again tonight.

Overall, we’re getting the better shooting team here, at home, and they are coming off a road loss. The Buckeyes are 3-2 off a road loss this season. They’re also significantly better at home, especially offensively. And, while the Terps have won two straight road games, they’ve shown a propensity to struggle in tougher environments. Tonight is going to be just that, as Ohio State needs this game like blood. A loss here would drop them to 13-10 and their NCAA tourney hopes would be in serious jeopardy. So let’s back the home team tonight here and take the Buckeyes at a virtual pick ‘em.

Official Pick: Ohio State -1 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

Additional Best Bet College Hoops (2/5/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 5, 2025 | 6:38 P.M. CST

Sorry for the late addition, but this game doesn’t tip for another three hours. We’re going to add one play a little later like we did last night. Last night it didn’t work out too well for us lol. Hopefully we can steal a win back here on the late night ticket.

Best Bet: Washington -1 (1H) vs. Nebraska

We’re going to go to a first half best bet here. This Washington team has really struggled to play a full 40 minutes in some of the games I’ve watched this season. That largely has to do with their lack of depth, as well as the fact that their best player is Great Osobor. He plays a ton of minutes and he’s, well, big boned. And he tends to run out of gas at the end of games sometimes.

Overall, neither of these teams are great. I actually am much higher on Nebraska than others, BUT I only like backing the Huskers in HOME games. They are a completely different team away from home. Now, yes they did just have a big win at Oregon a couple nights ago, but that same Oregon team has been struggling significantly lately; they are not the same team they looked like early in the year. Additionally, Oregon has a very weak home court advantage.

Now, while Washington hasn’t been great early in games, by any means, as a whole they’ve played BETTER in the first half than in the second. We saw them actually LEAD by DOUBLE DIGITS over a top ten Purdue team at halftime a couple weeks ago. There’s been multiple other games this year where the Huskies have hung in the game in the first half or even LED at the break but found a way to LOSE the game late in the contest: both UCLA games, @ Oregon, & vs. Purdue. On the other hand, we’ve NOT seen this team come from behind much this year; if Washington gets down early (or is down at halftime) they have not shown any ability to comeback and win the game outright. Considering we’re basically sitting at a pick ‘em in the game (UW -1.5). Thus, if we are going to back UW in this spot, I’d much rather do it in the first half and only have to win the first 20 minutes. If we’re down at halftime, there’s a high probability we are going to lose the bet anyways.

I also like that this UW is coming off a big win. They had just ONE conference win all season before their last outing. They went into Minnesota and won outright on Saturday. It has zero bearing on post-season tournaments or anything of that nature, but it WILL give this group a confidence boost coming out tonight. Meanwhile, Nebraska has had some really rough starts on the road this season. It looks like they MAY have righted the ship with two straight wins. However, I’m not ready to anoint their road woes fixed with just one away victory. I like Fred Hoiberg, but his Huskers have shown no ability to consistently win on the road the last COUPLE of seasons.

Overall, I like the Huskies in this spot. I think they are going to come out with some confidence and give Nebraska (a POOR road team) all they can handle. I’m just a bit worried about having to hold on for an entire 40 minutes. Also, I tend to lose TWO ways, trailing from start to finish when I’m dead wrong, and leading the entire game and finding a way to lose in the final few minutes (like Northwestern pushing yesterday). So let’s roll with the Huskies in the FIRST HALF ONLY.

Official Pick: Washington -1 (1H)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops Best Bet (2/5/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 5, 2025 | 3:05 P.M. CST

Quick Summary:

• Yesterday: 0-1-1: Tough one yesterday in the Northwestern game. We led, and covered for 39 of 40 minutes and ended up with a late game push. Up 15 with 9 minutes to go, at home, laying only 2 you expect to win 95% of the time. NW’s leading scorer over the past 5 games got injured with about 8 minutes to go, and the sub that was forced into action ended up costing them big late in the game. Still led by 6 with under a minute to play and should’ve easily covered. Regardless, we were due for a bad beat, and at least we pushed it.

  • BYU was a loss: I initially was going to stay away from that game, specifically because Caleb Love has been so streaky that if he had a big night I knew it would be tough for BYU to win, but saw some big money coming in on the Cougs, and late public money drove it back down to a good price, so pulled the trigger. It was the wrong side, as Arizona played great in a hostile environment. BYU had chances to build a lead early and didn’t do it, and it ultimately cost them late

• Overall Season Record: 30-13 (69.8%)

Tonight’s Best Bets:

1) Central Florida ML vs. Cincinnati:

I backed Central Florida on Saturday and they proved to be my only loss of the day on a 4-1 card, however we’re going to go back to the well one more time tonight (albeit an empty well). This number is off in my opinion. You have two teams struggling mightily in Big 12 play, with both teams losing 4 of their last 5, and Cinci losing 4 straight. And, so I guess the idea with the market move in FAVOR of Cinci is the idea that you take the points when two teams struggling like this face off. However, this is a home game for UCF and my numbers make Central Florida -1.5 on a neutral against this Bearcats team. With home court factored in I made UCF 4.7, and we’re currently laying 2? Additionally, KP is pretty close to my number, they make this number 4 as well. UCF is currently ranked 5 spots higher in the KP.

Then we look at these two teams body’s of work. First UCF, who comes into this game with what I believe to be a much better chance at making the NCAA tournament. Currently, UCF is 63rd in the NET, 56th in KenPom. However, they have some really good wins on their resume. Missing one of their leading scorers early in the season, they knocked off Texas A&M (ranked 15th in KP). They also have a MASSIVE win in conference play, going into Lubbock and knocking off Texas Tech on the road (currently ranked 9th in KP). That’s two wins over top 15 teams, and obviously both Quad 1 victories. Then you look at their losses, and they have ONE loss all year to a team currently projected not to make the NCAA tourney (loss vs LSU, which still isn’t a terrible loss). Cinci, on the other hand, doesn’t have any terrible losses either. But they do have losses to some of the middling teams in the Big 12: Kansas State, Utah, & WVU (after DeVries went out). More importantly, though, they have ZERO quality wins. In fact, their only two conference wins came against Arizona State and Colorado, two of the worst teams in the Big 12. They are also WINLESS (0-6) in Quad 1 games, and tonight, on the road at a top 75 team is considered a Q1 game. It’s going to be extremely difficult for Cinci to find it’s way into the NCAA tournament with their current resumé, even currently being ranked slightly higher than UCF in the NET. UCF on the other hand, could definitely find their way into the mix with a win tonight. That would get them to 5 wins in the Big 12, with plenty more winnable games on their schedule, as well as Q1 opportunities.

Then looking at the matchup, it’s going to be tough for Cinci to keep up. This UCF team isn’t an ELITE offensive unit, but they are a very good perimeter shooting team. Over 41% of their FG attempts come from beyond the three-point line, and that’s defending three-pointers is the weakest part of Cinci’s defense. UCF is going to find success tonight shooting the ball from beyond the arc. On the other side, Cinci is one of the worst offensive teams at the P4 level. Specifically they are HORRIBLE shooting the ball: 278th in 3FG%, 342nd in FT%, 208th in eFG%. It’s just a team that struggles to put the ball in the basket. If UCF is scoring at the rate they normally do, it’s going to be very difficult for Cinci to keep up. I believe that’s what happens tonight, and I think UCF gets it done on their home floor relatively easily.

Official Pick: UCF ML (-130)

Play Rating: 2-Star

Non-Official Late Night OPINION: Stanford ML vs. Wake Forest

I went to Wake Forest on Saturday, and thankfully we went Moneyline, because anyone who went Wake Forest -2.5 ended up on SVP’s Bad Beats segment Monday night. We’re going to do the same thing (go ML) here but we’re actually going to fade the Demon Deacons tonight. Wake Forest has been good to me over the past couple seasons, as I’ve had a pretty good feel for how they’ve trended week-to-week under Steve Forbes (Wake HC).

I actually really like this Stanford team, and I have been higher than anyone on their new Head Coach (Kyle Smith) than anyone. Smith started his career at Columbia before getting the head job at San Francisco. Although he didn’t get to an NCAA tournament at SF he won 20+ games in all three seasons heading the Dons, and finished no worse than 4th in the WAC in his 3 seasons. He then took the head job at Washington State, where he spent 5 seasons. Last year was his final season at Wazzu, as he led the Cougars to 25 wins, finishing 2nd in the Pac-12, and ultimately earning his first ever NCAA tournament appearance as a head coach. That turned out to be a win over a good Drake team in the first round, before a Round of 32 exit. Smith then took the Stanford job, and he’s preceded to lead the Cardinal to 15 wins through their first 22 games; the Cardinal did not win 15 games TOTAL in any of the last 4 seasons. Smith has them squarely in the mix for an NCAA tournament birth.

What I like specifically about that Stanford has really IMPROVED over the course of their season, and they are playing their best basketball as of late. They are 6-2 in their last 8 games, including a road win at North Carolina. They have also been excellent at home, going 12-1 this season in true home games. Their only home loss came back in November and was a very odd loss to Cal Poly. Now, Stanford did lose their last time out, and it wasn’t pretty. They got spanked by SMU in Dallas by 20+ points. However, Stanford was coming in off a 4 game win streak, traveling to Dallas to take an an SMU team that desperately needed that win. Stanford came out cold and got down big early and it never was a game. I chalk that one up to a bad performance on the road, in a longer travel spot than normal, where they have been much worse this season. I believe they will bounce back tonight.

Wake has also been very subpar on the road this season. They’re 3-4 overall in true road games, and their 3 road wins have come against three of the worst teams in the ACC: Syracuse, Virginia Tech, & Miami. When they’ve stepped up in class on the road, they’ve struggled mightily. They are 3-0 against teams with below .500 records in conference play; they are 0-4 against teams with conference records of .500 or better. Stanford comes into this game 7-4 in ACC play. So that bodes well for the Cardinal and poorly for the Deacs in this spot. I made this number Stanford -3.7. We currently sit Stanford -2. So, the number is definitely off here as well.

Lastly, from a matchup persepctive, I think this favors Stanford as well. I know that the Deacs beat the Cardinal in their first matchup in Winston Salem, but it’s a much different game on the road. Additionally, Wake shot the ball above their season average from 2FGs and the FT line in their first matchup, while Stanford shot significantly worse than normal. I think we will see some regression to the mean here. Stanford isn’t great defensively, but Wake REALLY struggles to score at times. Obviously Hunter Sallis is a star and can go off at any moment. But they often rely on him to make some very difficult shots. He made some ridiculous buckets down the stretch against Pittsburgh, Saturday, that I’m not sure are repeatable in the long run. If Stanford can do enough to slow down Sallis and Chase Hildreth, who had a big game Saturday as well, I think the Cardinal will find more offense this go around, at home, in a more comfortable environment. One last tidbit - Wake likes to go zone at times to confuse the opponent. That’s not a good recipe against Stanford, as they have some really good knock down shooters. It’s going to be important for Stanford to hit some threes early against that zone and get Wake to stick in man-to-man. That will present matchup problems for Wake on the interior, who is not deep whatsoever, and will need to rely on 1v1 defense without fouling to get the win. I like Stanford in this matchup to even up the season series with the Deacs. Give me the Cardinal at home on the ML, laying a cheap price to get us to the window tonight.

Official Pick: Stanford ML (-125)

Play Rating: N/A (NOT OFFICIAL PICK)

College Hoops ADDITIONAL Best Bet (2/4/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 4, 2025 | 5:32 P.M. CST

UPDATE: I posted earlier with ONE best bet and some additional OPINIONS, however I’ve decided to add a second best bet. No games have started, as it’s currently before 6:00 P.M. and this game does not tip until 9:00 P.M. Below is my SECOND pick, however if you just clicked on this, don’t forget to READ the NEXT blog post as well, as that has my first pick for tonight. Thanks and best of luck!!

Best Bet #2 Tonight: BYU -2 vs. Arizona

This will be an abbreviated summary, as I am posting this late. However, we are going to back the MORMONS tonight; a little ‘Mormon’s After Dark’ or ‘Mormon Magic’ for you tonight. BYU has been playing some really good basketball lately. They are actually one of the most improved teams in the country from what I’ve seen. Early in the year they were working in some new young pieces, along with a completely new coaching staff, and they STRUGGLED. I watched them play at Providence around their 10th game of the year, and it was one of the ugliest games I’ve seen a team play in a long time. Their star European 19-year old was HORRIBLE in that game, and I watched wondering if this BYU team would even be a tournament team this season.

They finished out their non-conference schedule winning the rest of their games against significantly inferior opponents, and then when conference play started they STRUGGLED. They were 1-3 through their first 4 conference games, and 2-4 through 6 outings. Their two wins in that span came against 2 of the 4 worst teams in the conference as well, in Oklahoma State and Arizona State. However, things changed after that. The Cougars started playing much better basketball, and it began to show up on the court. Since that 2-4 start to conference play, they’ve rattled off 4 consecutive wins, and not just against bad teams either. During that stretch, they killed Cincinnati and Colorado (not impressive), but also beat a very solid Baylor team in a tight game at home, and then went on the road to Central Florida and got an impressive win over the Knights.

Arizona on the other hand has been playing as good as anyone in the Big 12 over the past 10 games. They’re 9-1 in Big 12 play, sitting in a tie for first place in the conference. However, this is a perfect spot for a let down for the Wildcats. Arizona is coming off back-to-back very emotional wins. The first came against Iowa State at home, which was a game that Arizona had no business winning. Iowa State led by 2, shooting 2 FTs with 2.8 seconds remaining. ISU could’ve iced the game with 2 made free throws. Even by just missing the second FT it’s unlikely that Arizona ever gets a decent shot up from 3 quarters court. Instead ISU went 1/2 from the line and MADE the 2nd FT, which allowed Arizona to inbound the ball, down 3. Still, it took a legitimate miracle, as Caleb Love nailed a 55 foot shot at the buzzer to send the game to overtime. He then made his first two threes of overtime to steal the win for Arizona. They followed that up by traveling to their rival, Arizona State, and getting themselves in an absolute DOG FIGHT. They actually trailed late in the game before pulling away in the final few minutes. The end of the game saw Arizona’s Caleb Love get ejected after getting in an altercation with an ASU player (that ASU player head butted Love). Regardless, it was TWO really tough, grinded out, emotional victories. And now they are traveling to Provo to take on the Mormons in a really tough venue. This is a terrible spot for Arizona, playing against a team in BYU that can legitimately match Arizona’s talent.

We’re going to back BYU in this spot, mainly because of that - THE SPOT. BYU is not the better team here, and yet we’re seeing them take money. Try to find something -2 or better. If you can find -130 or better ML take that, as I think this is going to be a close game and at -130 or better it’s worth avoiding the points (BYU is not the best FT shooting team). But it’s playable up to 2.5 (not at 3)

Official Pick: BYU -130 or better

Play Rating: 2-Stars

College Hoops Best Bets (2/4/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 4, 2025 | 2:30 P.M. CST

Quick Summary:

• Yesterday’s Play: 1-0 (UAB -2 vs. North Texas)

• Overall Season Record: 30-12 (71.4%)

  • I’m not going to sit here and pretend to believe this is sustainable; but we keep winning, so I’m not going to apologize for it either, lol. Another winner last night. It was a close game, and glad it went our way. That said, it was clearly the right side all game long, and SHOULD HAVE gone our way. On to tonight. Plays listed below.

Best Bets: Northwestern -2 vs. USC

I actually hate giving out the worst of a number. That said, there’s still value in this number, and I love the spot here. This opened NW -1 and has got bet up to 2. Some books are trending towards 2.5 so I would get on this as quickly as possible. It’s playable at 2.5, but don’t play at 3.

We look at this matchup, it’s two teams who probably both will be playing in the NIT or possibly not at all come mid-March. USC comes in 13-8, NW just 12-10, although USC does bolster a better conference record at 5-5 in Big 10 Play. Also, there’s no doubt that the Trojans are playing better basketball as of late. They’ve won 4 of their last 6, including two road outings at Illinois and at Nebraska (both pretty impressive road wins). And, they just knocked off top 10 ranked Michigan State at home, who was previously unbeaten in Big 10 play. Northwestern, on the other hand, has struggled mightily as of late. They are 1-4 in their last 5 games, dropping three straight, including back-to-back home games to Rutgers and Wisconsin. So we do have teams trending in opposite directions. And, normally I’d be inclined to take the team trending better, but not here.

Overall, this is a super tough spot for USC, both mentally, as well as in terms of travel. First, this Trojans team is physically traveling across the country. They made a similar trip across the country earlier this season to Indiana, following a multi-game home stand, and they lost by double digits. Now, they have won their last two conference road games, but one came against Illinois when they were already on the East Coast for the Indiana game; and, the other came against a Nebraska team in the midst of a 7-game losing streak. So, from a traveling aspect this is a tough trip, and I do think that favors NW significantly, who is playing their 3rd consecutive home game. Thus, they’ve not had to deal with any travel over the past 10 days, and should be perfectly well rested and ready to roll.

Then you look at the mental aspect of this. This USC team is coming off their biggest win of the season, BY FAR. They took down #7 Michigan State at home last Saturday. It was a big time win for the program (the biggest win for SC under Eric Mussleman). When you think about how big that win is, and how high the team was Saturday, it’s difficult to believe they are getting right back up for a road game at a Northwestern team that comes in at the bottom of the Big 10 Standings. It’s a perfect let down spot for the Trojans. Then you look at who USC plays next, and it’s another top 10 team, as they travel TO #7 Purdue Friday night. So it’s not just a let down spot coming off the MSU win, but it’s also a spot sandwiched between another top ten opponent. Knowing that USC is going to need a few more signature wins to gets itself in the tournament, and coming off that big time win Saturday, it’s very realistic to see them lay an egg here against NW. And clearly, that’s why we have seen NW open as a short favorite, AND TAKE MONEY up to 2/2.5.

Then you look at the metrics of both teams, and while USC has a better record, better conference record, and is trending better from a results perspective, this Northwestern team is still METRICALLY better than this USC team. KenPom has NW ranked 53, with USC 6 spots below them at 59; not a huge differential, but it’s a different story than the conference standings tell us. KP makes this game NW -4, which is closer to my number (I make NW -4.52).

Matchup wise, Northwestern does an excellent job keeping the opposing offense off the offensive glass (top 70 in country out of 364 teams), while USC ranks outside the top 265 in ORB%. Additionally, Northwestern is ELITE taking care of the ball, as they come into this matchup 20th in the country in TO%. Those two things combined mean that USC is NOT going to get a ton of extra possessions against this NW team. Therefore, they are going to have to shoot a high percentage to be able to win this game outright (which is essentially what they will have to do to cover). The only other thing that stands out matchup wise is that NW SHOULD have a slight advantage on each side of the ball; NW comes in 45th in the country in Defensive Efficiency, to USC’s 55th in Offensive Efficiency. On the other side, NW is just 71st in Offensive Efficiency, but USC is 77th Defensively. It’s a remedial way to look at it, but it gives a general idea of who may have a slight advantage, all other matchups equal.

Overall, I like the spot a lot, as mentioned before. We throw in the number being about 2.5 points off from my number (as well as KP’s). And then the fact that KP and advanced statistics both slightly favor NW. I believe we will see some public money on USC here following the big upset of MSU, and NW’s recent struggles. However, we’re still seeing line movement in favor of NW, which is a good sign as well. We’re going to go with the Wildcats as our best bet tonight. Best of luck. I will also have a couple of OPINIONS below, but this is the ONLY official play of the night.

Official Pick: Northwestern -2 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

Additional Plays (Missed Card, but Considered):

• Kentucky +4.5 @ Ole Miss: I just hate giving out road teams, especially in a conference like the SEC + Kentucky’s Starting PG Lamont Butler is still out. I don’t think UK just gets smacked tonight, considering they just lost at home to Arkansas. They should have a decent bounce back here, but their defense also scares me. I gave out UK catching 10.5 on the road last week & they won outright, but Tennessee struggles to score - Ole Miss does not. I like Ole Miss, but they haven’t looked as good lately. Part of it is their schedule, part of it is they aren’t UBER talented. But Beard is still damn good, and Padula has been very good. I lean UK here as I believe this number just got bet up too much. I think Ole Miss SHOULD win, but 4.5 makes this UK or pass.

• Vanderbilt @ Florida OVER 155.5: This was probably the closest play to making the card. Florida had one of their worst offensive performances of the season Saturday in Knoxville. They are the 6th best offensive team in the country (KenPom) and scored 44 points in an entire game. They are GOING to bounce back here. They’re going from facing the #1 defense in the country (Tennessee) to playing the 76th ranked defense (Vanderbilt tonight). Expect an avalanche from this Florida offense in front of a ruckus crowd. Vanderbilt SHOULD have no problem scoring here. Yes, Florida’s defense is metrically top 10 in the country, but they play extremely fast. In fact, both teams are top 90 in the country in adjusted tempo. I expect this to be up and down, fast paced, and high scoring. The ONLY thing keeping me off this game is Vandy’s inconsistency shooting the 3 (shooting in general). They are one of the streakiest teams in the country. And if they start off slow, and get down big, this could be a game where they get blown out, and we end up in the 85-65 range. That’s legitimately possible, so we’re staying off, but this was my favorite play that missed the card.

• BYU -2.5 vs. Arizona: BYU is playing really good basketball lately (pains me to say). They’ve improved more than any team in the country over the past 2 months. Arizona is playing great, but they’re due for a loss. It’s not the toughest travel spot for Arizona, but back-to-back emotional wins; one in dramatic fashion over ASU, and one over their rival where emotions spewed over late. Caleb Love is also one of the streakiest players in the country, and he played really good the last two games. It feels like he’s due for a stinker, but if he has turned a corner then he could be enough to get Arizona over the top tonight. Staying away, but I like BYU in this spot

• Baylor +7.5 @ TTU: Staying away because it’s on the road, but classic let down spot for the Red Raiders after that emotional win at Houston Saturday afternoon. Tech is also playing above their talent level the past 4-5 outings. While Baylor is coming off a confidence building win. Additionally, the Bears have the PURE TALENT to win this game outright. Their two freshmen have been absolutely phenomenal late.

• UCLA vs. Michigan State UNDER 140.5: This is going to be an absolute SLUGFEST, between two physical, defensive teams. This number is way too high. I made it 134.5. UCLA has been shooting it better lately, but they are not going to do so against a good MSU perimeter defense. And MSU is the WORST 3 point shooting team in the P5. Give me the under in this one all day. Just couldn’t get there for an official play

College Hoops Best Bet + Big Game Breakdown & Opinion (2/3/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 3, 2025 | 11:58 A.M. CST

Season Record: 29-12 (70.7%)

Best Bet: UAB -2 vs. North Texas

These two teams come into this game tonight fighting for sole possession of 2nd place in the American Conference. Both North Texas (16-5) & UAB (14-8) come into this game 7-2 in conference play, while Memphis sits atop the conference at 8-1. Despite being tied record wise, NT currently holds the tiebreaker, as the Mean Green took down the Blazers in their first matchup in Denton, TX. This UAB team finished 4th in the American Conference last season (12-6 in conference play), but RAN through the AAC Tournament, winning all three of their tourney games by double digits on their way to clinching a spot in the Big Dance; the Blazers nearly pulled off an upset in Round 1 of the NCAA tournament, but fell to SDSU, 65-69 in a close game.

A solid regular season, paired with the conference tournament run had AAC coaches high on the UAB Blazers entering this season; they were picked to win the conference in the pre-season. However, a number of subpar non-conference performances led to a very poor start (UAB was 5-6 through their first 11 games). However, since that poor start, the Blazers have won 9 of their last 11 games, going 7-1 in their last 8 games, on their way to a 7-2 start to conference play (much closer to their pre-season projections in the AAC). Their lone losses BOTH came ON THE ROAD, and to each of the top two teams in the American: @ Memphis lost by 23 & @ North Texas by 3.

Meanwhile, North Texas was picked to finish all the way back in 7th in the American Conference, but they’ve been far better than that projection. They’ve already 16 wins (16-5 start to the year), and one game away from having sole possession of 2nd place in the American. They actually started 16-4, and all 4 losses were to very solid teams. In fact, every team they fell to before this past Saturday is currently in 1st or 2nd in their respective conference standings. And, their lone conference loss was a 4 point loss at 1st place Memphis. However, Saturday they faced off against UTSA, who was just 9-11 overall and 3-5 in conference play, and a lack of offense from the Mean Green led to UTSA pulling an upset. It was the first real “BAD” loss on the Mean Green’s schedule, as not only was it to a team far outside NT’s class, but it was also a HOME loss (1st true home loss all year for North Texas)

So why are we backing UAB here? Well, let’s start with the way these teams are trending. Yes, both teams hold identical record the past 9 conference games, however UAB’s two losses both came on the road, while NT just lost at home to UTSA. I mention that because they are both trending up, but I believe North Texas’ confidence is trending the opposite way, and I could see them coming into this game really struggling. Think about it: they just played the 273rd ranked defense in the country (out of 364 teams), who is outside the top 330 in effective FG% defense, and outside the top 300 in both 2FG% & 3FG% defense. Against that defense, AT HOME, the Mean Green shot 15/47 (31.9%), 3/17 from three (17.6%), and scored a TOTAL of 50 points.

Meanwhile, UAB has been playing great basketball on the offensive end. Looking at the Blazers metrically, they come in top 40 in the country in offensive efficiency, and they are especially good in the paint and utilizing 2FGs. They don’t settle for a ton of threes, and they are ELITE on the offensive glass (8th in the country in ORB%). Now, North Texas is very good on the defensive glass over the course of the season, but these two teams faced each other once already; and, in that game, North Texas was absolutley ABUSED on the glass. UAB secured 15 offensive rebounds, they were a +7 on the offensive glass, and they were a +10 on the glass as a whole. If UAB dominates the glass they way they did in the first matchup, which was at North Texas, they will win this game going away.

Additionally, in that first matchup, UAB actually led by 17 at halftime, and they were in complete control of that game. It was a a huge run by North Texas to start the second half that got them back in the game, and eventually NT was able to steal a win, outscoring the Blazers by 20 points in the second half to win, 81-78. Lastly, UAB had 13 TO’s in that game at North Texas a few weeks back, which is highly uncharacteristic of this Blazer’s team. They come into this game with a 14.5% TO percentage, which ranks 21st in the entire country. It would be surprising to see UAB turn the ball over that many times tonight.

Last point I’d like to make is that TEMPO is going to be important; North Texas plays at one of the slowest paces in the entire country. In fact, they are the SECOND SLOWEST team in the nation (363rd in Adjusted Tempo out of 364 teams). Meanwhile, UAB wants to play MUCH faster. They come in ranked 71st in Adjusted Tempo, meaning they are in the top 20% of teams in terms of fast pace of play. Well, when we look at that first game, we saw an up & down high scoring game, finishing with a total 159 points between the two teams. With that in mind, it seems NT was wiling to play up and down with UAB more than I expected. And because they won, I believe this game is going to be similar. That strongly favors UAB in this spot. So we’re going with the BLAZERS here and lay the small number. I wouldn’t be opposed to laying the ML if you have access to -125 or better. These two teams always tend to play close games. That said, UAB is a good FT shooting team, so if it is close late I expect them to make their free throws and close out the game at the line.

Official Pick: UAB -2 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

Additional Pick:

I really HATE the way Kansas has been trending lately. I truly believe that this was just a BAD nucleus of guys that Bill Self recruited (including transfers), because this Kansas team is arguably the most talented group in the country from top to bottom. I don’t think there’s a deeper, more talented roster, and yet they’ve been on a negative trajectory for the past month. It really wouldn’t even surprise me if Bill Self is on his way out at Kansas one of the next few years, with all the changes to recruting, NIL, and paying players. He already has two National Championships, and he will go down as one of the greatest college coaches ever. If he is thinking about coaching 5-10 more years, it wouldn’t shock me if he decided to pursue an NBA job soon, just to be able to continue coaching but get away from all the bull shit NIL stuff.

Overall, it’s been a WACKY year for Kansas, to say the least. In the non-conference they go out and beat North Carolina, Michigan State, and Duke. Two of those teams are currently in the top 10, and will likely be top 2-3 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. They then lost their first two true road games (to Creighton and Mizzou), but that’s to be expected in college hoops, even for a team with lots of veteran guys; playing on the road is tough in this sport. BUT, the concern for this team started when they let West Virginia waltz into legendary Fogg Allen Field House and beat them on their home floor. They responded with a few good wins against inferior opponents, but then their last 6 games they’ve gone just 3-3, and there have been some epic collapses in that run. Their first loss in that stretch came at Iowa State (their opponent tonight), a game that the Cyclones dominated. They shot 61% from three, won the rebounding battle by double digits, and cruised to a 17 point loss. Then came the Houston loss, their 2nd home loss of the season. They Jayhawks led by 6 at the end of regulation with just about a minute to play, by 4 with the ball under 45 seconds, and by 2 with the ball with under 20 seconds. A five-second call on the baseline was taken, despite having 2 timeouts left, led to Houston tying the game and sending it to OT. In OT the Jayhawks led by 6, with Dejuan Harris (83% FT shooter) shooting 2 FTs, with 18 seconds remaining. And somehow, someway the Jayhawks COLLAPSED and allowed Houston to force double OT. The Cougars would go on to knock off the Jayhawks in double OT. And, then the final loss in this rough patch came on the road against Baylor, where the Jayhawks blew a 21 point first half lead and went on to LOSE by 11. In between there, the Jayhawks BARELY escaped Central Florida at home as well, escaping with a fortunate call late in the game.

Iowa State, on the other hand, is coming off their worst performance of the season by far. They did have a starter out, but losing at home to K-State is purely a lack of focus. The Cyclones have been the best team at home in college basketball over the past 2-3 years, and K-State has been the worst road team in the conference the last two years. Because they played so poorly, I think this is a really good bounce back spot for the Cyclones. I believe the lack of focus came from the brutal loss suffered at Arizona the game prior to K-State; the Cyclones should really be sitting here with just one conference loss, and now they sit with 3. But, this Cyclones team is very mentally tough, and TJ Otzleberger is one of the best coaches in the country. They will be ready to go tonight in Lawerence. On the other side, I believe there is something fundamentally flawed with this KU team, especially in terms of their psyche.

Therefore, I like ISU in this spot a lot. The problem is, I just have a very hard time taking a road team in conference play in this tough of an environment. So I’m just going to give this out as my “free pick” or “opinion” of the night. We’re not going to make it an official play, although I believe ISU will win the game outright

NON-Official Pick/OPINION: ISU +2.5 (-110)

College Hoops Weekly Summary (2/2/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 2, 2025 | 12:50 A.M. CST

Best Bets Summary:

• Yesterday’s Record: 4-1 (80.0%)

  • Wins: Wake Forest, Oklahoma, Baylor, & St. Mary’s

  • Loss: UCF

• This Week’s Record: 6-3 (66.7%)

  • Sunday/Monday: No Plays

  • Tuesday: 1-1

    • Kentucky +10.5 over Tennessee (WIN) = UK won outright in Knoxville. I broke down this game in full, but I was pretty accurate here in the sense that Tennessee is so offensively challenged that it would be very tough to cover a number that big against a team who can actually score it. Kentucky shot the ball well and took care of it, despite having their starting PG Lamont Butler out. This was the right side, and was a sweat free winner

    • Dayton -2.5 vs. St. Bonny’s (LOSS) = This was a poor pick - I went with the road team in Dayton on a small winning streak, but really it was a fade of St. Bonaventure who had looked horrific the past 7 games, and they had shown no indication they were due for a bounce back. Dayton waxed from start to finish.

  • Wednesday: 0-1

    • West Virginia +9.5 vs. Houston (LOSS) = This was a spot play, fading Houston off a big, emotional win at Kansas, where they should’ve lost multiple times, but somehow pulled it out. WVU was coming off a really poor performance against K-State and it was a good bounce back spot. Houston just came out on fire and got a MASSIVE lead in the game. Funny enough, WVU came all the way back in the second half and actually cut the lead to 3 and had free throws to make it a one point game, but then collapsed late. Houston ended up covering, and Houston was the right side. We deserved this loss, but long run playing spots like this, is profitable

  • Thursday: 1-0

    • Nebraska +4.5 vs. Illinois (WIN) = Nebraska was the right side in this game the entire way. They really should’ve won this game outright in regulation. Illinois NEVER LED in regulation (not for one second). Yet they ended up with the ball on the final possession with a chance to win it. When the game went to OT, I figured “here we go again,” but the Huskers were able to pull out the victory in OT. Nebraska was the better team all night, and we were on point with this one. Nice outright win, taking the points with the home dog.

  • Friday: No Plays

  • Saturday: 4-1

    • Wake Forest -125 ML (WIN) = this line opened -1.5 and was sitting -2 most of the morning. There were plenty of -125, and -130 out there. And, while I don’t normally like laying increased juice, Wake always plays tight games. This one was MASSIVE for the tournament resumé of the Demon Deacons. Thankfully we DID take the ML and hopefully everyone else did too, because this line CLOSED Wake -2.5 or -3 depending on the spot. And there was a very tough 3 at the end of the game by Pittsburgh that covered the number for anyone who had the Panthers +3.5. Nonetheless, we got the dub and started the day 1-0

    • OU -2 vs. Vanderbilt (WIN) = Well OU did NOT look like the right side in the first half, as they got down by as many as 13. But they played about the best offensive half I’ve seen any team play all season in the 2nd half, scoring 61 points in 20 minutes. They ended up winning this game by 30 points. The Sooners were ultimately the right side in this one. This was just a massive game for the Sooner’s tournament hopes, needing a big win against a ranked team, and really just avoiding more losses in SEC play. Nice pick to start 2-0

    • UCF -1.5 vs. BYU (LOSS) = Well UCF controlled the game for a decent portion of the first half, leading by as many as 7 at one point. They never could get any separation, though, and this led to BYU hanging around. Still UCF had back-to-back possessions with under 5 minutes to play, up by 3. Those two possessions they had a wide open layup that was missed, and a kick out wide open 3 from their best shooter that was missed. If either of those shots go down, it’s very likely that they end up pulling out a win. Instead BYU got hot late, led by Richie Saunders (who finished with 22). They ended up losing by 6 (75-81). This UCF team is good, they’ve just struggled to finish and closeout games and that cost them here. Credit BYU for playing good ball & executing down the stretch.

    • Baylor -2 vs. Kansas (WIN) = I’m not going to say this was a lucky win, because Baylor was technically the right side from a post-game win expectancy. However, when you trail by 21 in a college basketball game, the odds of coming back and winning the game outright are quite low. And, that’s exactly what Baylor did. The Bears actually cut the lead down to a 2 point game midway through the second half, before Kansas regained a 9 point advantage with just 7 minutes left. But, Baylor hunkered down on defense, and got hot on the offensive end, finishing the game on a 29-9 run, to win by DOUBLE DIGITS.

    • St. Mary’s +1.5 vs. Gonzaga (WIN) = St. Mary’s controlled this game from the tip, building as big as a 14 point lead in the first half. The Gaels have traditionally struggled against the Zags, but this Gonzaga team is not nearly as good as any of their teams the past decade. That said, the Zags fought back. Trailing by 8 at halftime, they actually took as much as a 4 point lead in the second half. But this Gaels team answered every run Gonzaga had. That, along with some key stops late, and FINALLY knocking down some clutch FTs late allowed St. Mary’s to get the outright win as a short dog. And way MORE importantly, to get us to 4-1 on the day

• Season Overall Record: 29-12 (70.7%)

College Hoops Best Bets (Saturday, 2/1/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 1, 2025 | 10:01 A.M. CST

Running late today, so just going to post the first ones without breakdowns. If need be I’ll post short BD’s for these before tip.

Best Bets:

1) Wake Forest ML (-125) vs. Pittsburgh

2) OU -2 vs. Vanderbilt

3) Baylor -2 (-120) vs. Kansas

4) UCF -1.5 vs. BYU

5) St. Mary’s +1.5 vs. Gonzaga

All Plays: 2-Star

Just Missed Card = NO Bet for these, just ones I considered/opinions/leans:

Nova -2.5 over Creighton, Ole Miss +6.5 vs. Auburn, NW +2.5 vs. Wisconsin, Oki State -1.5 vs. Utah, USC +4.5 vs. MSU, TTU/HOU Over 127.5, Stanford +5.5 @ SMU, ND/MIA Over 147,

College Hoops Best Bet (1/30/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 30, 2025 | 7:39 A.M.

Best Bet: Nebraska +4.5 vs. Illinois

Man has this Nebraska program taken a step back this year. Last season Fred Hoiberg really had the Huskers trending in the right direction. After 3 straight losing seasons to start his tenure in Lincoln, Hoiberg won 16 games in year 4, finishing .500 (16-16) on the season. Then last year, Hoiberg led the Huskers to the an incredible year, as they finished 23-11, which was the most wins in a single season for a Nebraska team since 1990. They finished 3rd in the Big 10 & reached the NCAA tournament for the first time in over a decade. While this season started off very well, the Huskers have gone on a BIG losing streak. And, while 12-8 isn’t a disastrous start to the season, that along with 2-7 in the conference sure won’t get you to the NCAA tournament. And yet, we’re going to back them here tonight.

Even though the Huskers have lost seven straight, I still have found some positives when watching this team play. Hoiberg sure hasn’t lost the locker room, they just aren’t executing at the level they were early in the season. Now, they have shown they can play with some really good teams. They have wins on the road at a ranked Creighton team (one of the toughest spots to play in the country), at home over a top 15 UCLA team, and a neutral floor beatdown of Indiana. Even the road losses in conference don’t look bad: @ Michigan State, @ Purdue, @ Wisconsin - those are all games that most teams in the Big 10 WOULD lose. So, we know that this team plays hard, they have the ability to beat good teams, and they’re playing at home, where traditionally they’ve been very good (although they’ve lost two straight).

My issue with this number on Nebraska’s home court, is this: if Illinois was playing really good basketball, like they were early in the season, I would understand this getting bet up from 3.5 to 4.5. But to get to 4.5 in their current form? I just can’t get to that number. I make this Illinois -1.5. This Fighting Illini team has been trending down lately, just as Nebraska has. They’ve lost 3 of their last 5 and 2 of their last 3. That stretch includes a 21 point HOME loss to Maryland.

What makes this Illinois team so hot/cold is that they rely HEAVILY on the three-point shot. 47.6% of their TOTAL field goal attempts are threes (22nd in country), while 34.6% of their total production comes from the three point shot (103rd in country). Yet, despite shooting that many triples, they are a terrible three-point shooting team. They shoot below 32% from beyond the arc on the season; that’s 262nd in country, and that’s out of 364 teams. Because of this reliance beyond the arc, they often have to rely on their defense and on offensive rebounding to stay in games when their threes aren’t falling (which is usually). The problem with this matchup for Illinois is that Nebraska is excellent at keeping opposing teams off the offensive glass (top 60 in country, 27.4% ORB%). So, if Nebraska is able to keep the Fighting Illini off the glass (which I believe they will be able to), they should have a great shot to stay in this game. Additionally, the Illini defense has not been as good over the past couple games. Last time out, they took on Northwestern, who came into that game outside the top 80 in offensive efficiency (one of worst in Big 10) while also playing at one of the slowest paces in the country. And yet, NW was able to put up 74 on that Illini defense. The Wildcats hit a whopping 10 threes in that game, and shot 40% from three in the game. The Illini controlled the entire game, but it wasn’t because of elite defense. The two games prior to that outing, the Illini gave up 91 on their home floor and 80 on the road at Michigan State (who is far from an offensive juggernaut).

With all that said: the way the Illini defense is trending, the fact that they rely heavily on the offensive glass where Nebraska is great, and the fact that we’re CATCHING 4.5 points at home in a very tough venue to play (yes it’s become very good HC advantage in Lincoln) - we’re going to go with the home dog here. Plus, this really is Nebraska’s season. If they can’t get a quad one win here, and they drop to 2-8 in conference play, they can basically kiss the NCAA Tournament goodbye tonight. They MUST win this game to stay in the mix. They are far from out of the fight, but they know they will be SEVERELY wounded with a loss tonight. Meanwhile, while this Illinois team is struggling, they won’t have the same desperation tonight, on the road, taking on an unranked team who’s on a 6-game losing streak (and Illinois is still ranked in the top 20, and it’s wild what that number next to your name will do for you mentally).

Official Pick: Nebraska +4.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops Best Bet (1/29/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 29, 2025 | 4:33 P.M.

Overall Record: 24-10 (70.6%)

Best Bet Tonight: West Virginia +9.5 vs. Houston

This West Virginia team has had a rollercoaster season so far. They started off the year hot in the Battle 4 Atlantis, upsetting two top 25 teams in #24 Arizona and #3 Gonzaga. All signs pointed towards this team being a legitimate contender in the Big 12 at that point. Then their best player, Drake transfer Tucker Devries, went down with an injury (which is likely season ending). At that point, the Mountaineers season looked all but lost. However, after the loss of Devries, the Mountaineers rattled off 5 straight victories, including a 2-0 start to Big 12 play, and they went INTO Fogg Allen Fieldhouse and beat the #7 Jayhawks on the road. At that point, it felt like this WVU team would still be a force to be reckoned with in this conference, despite not having Devries. However, since that time they’re just 2-4, with one of those wins coming against Colorado, a team that is winless (0-9) in Big 12 play.

So why are we backing them here in this spot? Well, a couple of reasons. Number one, this team still has talent and they’ve shown they can play with some of the top teams in the country on a given night. In fact, they’ve really played up and down to the their competition a lot of this season. You look at that win at Kansas as one positive datapoint. But, then you see they also beat #2 Iowa State in Morgantown just three games ago. This team clearly still has fight left in them, and they’ve shown the ability to pull the big upset MULTIPLE times this season (4 wins over top 25 teams). Of their 4 upsets this season, 2 of them came as 6.5 point dogs (vs. ISU & vs. Arizona), one as a 13.5 point dog (@ Kansas), and one as a 15.5 point dog (vs. Gonzaga). So this team is no stranger to winning outright as a big underdog.

Then we look at the spot here. Houston is coming off one of the luckiest wins in the past decade in college basketball. The Cougars trialed by 6, at Kansas, with under a minute to play in regulation. It took Kansas taking a 5-second call with 15 seconds remaining (despite having two timeouts left), then FOULING away from the ball with 13 seconds left, and Houston’s Juwan Roberts making both free throws (despite being 54% on the season) just to force overtime. Then in overtime, the Jayhawks’ Dejuan Harris (83% FT shooter) was shooting 2 FTs, with KU up 6 with just 18 seconds remaining. He missed both FTs, Houston banged a deep three, stole the inbounds, and hit another three with 4 seconds left to tie the game. Kansas’ in game win probability in regulation was 98%. In overtime when shooting those two free throws, it was 99.9%. So you have the most emotional win you could possibly have, on the road, against your biggest competition in the conference. Now you have to play a second road game in a row, this time in Morgantown, against a team that has lost back-to-back games to inferior opponents, and 3 of their last 4 overall. It’s just a really poor spot for Houston, and a great spot for WVU.

Then you look at the matchup. Houston is the best defensive team in the country, metrically. That’s no surprise, as we tend to see that year in and year out according to KenPom. However, they are taking a West Virginia team that LOVES to shoot threes. They are top 30 in the country in percentage of FGs that are 3 pointers, as well as % of production coming from three pointers. Being heavily reliant on the three-ball really cranks up the variance, in terms of outcome of the game - if this team is hot from three, they significantly increase their chances of pulling a big upset, because we know they are going to take a ton of them. Additionally, as good as Houston is defensively, they are much better defending 2s than they are defending 3s. They are usually one of the top 5 perimeter defense teams in the country, however this season they’re 40th. That isn’t a bad spot to be, but it’s a farcry from where they’ve been the past half decade. And, if you watched the Kansas game this weekend, you can see why that’s the case. Houston gives up a ton more open looks from the perimeter than Cougar defenses of the past. I’ve seen this Houston team play multiple times, and from the eye test perspective, they just aren’t the same PERIMETER defense they usually are (which matches up with what the metrics show). I actually think they will finish even lower than they currently sit.

I expect this to be a low scoring, grinded out game, where both defenses play well, but West Virginia’s shooting from the perimeter keeps them in the game throughout. I truly believe the Mountaineers are a live dog here. We’re going to take the 9.5, but I want to sprinkle some on the ML as well, because if they get hot from three, there’s a real shot they win this one outright.

Official Pick: West Virginia +9.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops Best Bets (1/28/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 28, 2025 | 4:14 P.M. CST

CBB Overall Record: 23-9 (71.9%)

Best Bets Tonight:

1) Kentucky +10.5 @ Tennessee

I’m breaking two of my rules with this one. I’m taking a road team in conference play once students are back on campus, AND I’m taking a public underdog. However, I just think this is a really good spot for Kentucky. AND, Tennessee is not a team that should be laying double digit points to teams who can score it at a high clip (which Kentucky absolutely can).

Both of these teams come in on mini “rough patches”, although every team in the SEC is going to have rough patches this year. It’s the most brutal conference I’ve seen since the old Big East. Kentucky is just 3-4 in the SEC thus far, and they are coming off back to back losses. They also lost two of their last three road games, with both losses coming to unranked SEC teams, including their most recent outing Saturday afternoon to Vanderbilt. However, both those losses were to good teams. Georgia is going to be an NCAA tournament team when it’s all said and done, as Mike White has done a tremendous job there. Additionally, Vandy had already beaten Tennessee this year and as of today IS ranked in the Top 25 of the AP Poll. Tennessee on the other hand, is coming off a really tough loss at Auburn on Saturday night. It was one of the more physical, grinded out games I’ve seen all season. They come into this matchup 4-3 in SEC play.

Now, while Kentucky is playing their second straight road game, it’s not as though they are traveling cross-country here. They are going from Nashville to Knoxville, which is about a 3 hour drive. So the travel really isn’t tough for the Wildcats. Tennessee, on the other hand is coming off that extremely physical game with Auburn. And, while I don’t believe normally taking teams on road trips is a good idea, getting this Tennessee team after that physical of a game is a big bonus for Kentucky. I mean, I’ve seen boxing matches that were less physical than that game. Now the Vols have to take on a very high powered offensive team in Kentucky (much different than what they saw Saturday).

Moreover, this number is crazy. It opened 9.5 and got to 10.5. I was shocked at the move. I made this 5.5. I understand that teams going on the road in this conference are prone to get beat bad. But this Kentucky team can really score, and if this becomes a high scoring affair, I expect Kentucky to be a very live dog. On the other hand, if this becomes a slow, grinded out game (which favors Tennessee), now the Vols are having to cover a number as big as 10.5 in a game that’s played in the 50s or 60s? It just doesn’t make sense. This Tennessee team isn’t good enough offensively to lay this big of a number to any team that is in the top 15 in offensive efficiency. Kentucky comes in 4th in the nation in that category. They are top 50 in both 2FG% and 3FG% (57.0% & 36.9% respectively).

Overall, this number is too big, Kentucky is too good offensively, and it’s a bad spot for Tennessee against a UK team hungry for a win (after b2b losses). We’re riding with UK here plus a big number, despite the fact that they are a public dog.

Official Pick: Kentucky +10.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

2) Dayton -2.5 vs. St. Bonaventure

Speaking of teams who have fell on tough times, both of these programs started the year hot and have been in a rut as of late, with St. Bonaventure ESPECIALLY dipping as of late. The Bony’s started the season off hot as could be, winning 14 of their first 15 games. Their lone loss in the first half of the season came against a very good Utah State team on a neutral floor. However, since conference play tipped off, the Wolves have struggled. In fact, it’s one of the bigger drop off’s I’ve seen of any team this season in college basketball. The Wolves have now lost 3 consecutive games and 5 of their last 6, dropping to just 3-5 in A10 play. They’ve gone from a team that looked like they would surely get an At-Large bid to the NCAA tourney, to a team that is going to need to win the A10 tourney to have any shot of playing in March.

Dayton has not been all that great in A10 play either. When we first saw the Flyers on a big stage early this season at the Maui Invitational, they were upsetting UCONN and competing with Iowa State, one of the favorites to win the National Title this season (lost 89-84 in a very tight game). However, the Flyers are just 4-4 in their last 8 games, and they are just one game above .500 in conference play, sitting at 4-3. The main worst stretch of their season came with 3 consecutive losses to George Washington, UMASS, and George Mason. However, the Flyers have gotten back on track recently, ending that losing streak and putting together three straight wins.

Overall, looking at this matchup, you have two teams trending in opposite directions. Despite the rough 3 game stretch for the Flyers, Dayton has righted the ship, and they are back on the right track on this winning streak. Meanwhile, the Bonnies just cannot seem to figure it out on the offensive end. They are solid defensively, but they have really struggled to score against teams much worse than this Dayton group. In their current 3 game losing streak, they lost all three games by at least 13 points, and they have a negative point differential of 45 in those games.

While I only made this game Dayton -3 (and the line is 2.5) it feels as though this Bonnies team is mentally gone. They have lost their confidence, and they are not going to find it in a game against the most talented team in the A10 who is starting to figure it out. We’re going to roll with a second road team here tonight, and you’ll absolutely never see me take two road teams the rest of the season.

Official Pick: Dayton -2.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops FREE Mid-Major PICK of the Night (1/27/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 27, 2025 | 7:58 P.M. CST

This is NOT an official play. I went 2-1 on my official plays Saturday. Saturday night it looked like we were going to go a perfect 3-0 and get back to 75% on the season (which is absurd). However, one of the craziest collapses I’ve seen in all my years of college basketball happened. Kansas (catching 1.5) had an 83% free throw shooter shooting 2 FTs with under 20 seconds to go, leading by 6. They missed both FTs, gave up a 3, turned it over, and gave up another 3, all in the final 18 seconds. Now, full disclosure, we also won on Texas ML and they trailed by 22 in the second half. So it absolutely evened out. However, with all the bad beats we’ve had over the years, after finally getting one to go your way, you don’t expect to give it back the same day.

Regardless, below is my free pick of the night. I’m going to try to release some more unofficial plays for the website going forward, just to provide more content. If you do play these as actual bets, I recommend doing so at a significantly lower size than you would play a normal play of mine.

Free Pick of the Night: Texas A&M CC +4.5 (1ST HALF) vs. McNeese State

This is the battle of the best two teams in the Southland Conference. McNeese comes into the game a perfect 9-0 in conference play, while A&M Corpus Christi comes in 7-2, sitting in 2nd place in the conference. In all likelihood, we will see these two teams playing each other again in the Southland Conference Tournament Championship in a little over a month, with a trip with the NCAA tournament on the line. And, while I expect this McNeese group to get back to the NCAA Tourney once again this season, tonight is a different story.

Yes A&M CC is the inferior team here, but not by as much as this line indicates. As good as McNeese has been over the past couple seasons, this team isn’t quite as good as last year’s team that a lot of people picked as a Cinderella team (only to see them blown out in round 1 by Gonzaga). On the other hand, this A&M CC program is no stranger to the NCAA tournament themselves. They’ve reached the Big Dance twice the last three seasons. Therefore, the Islanders are not going to come into this game intimidated by the talent of this McNeese team. They know this is the biggest game of the season, thus far, and they will be ready to roll.

The Islanders don’t have the greatest home court advantage in terms of crowd noise or attendance, but it is a bit of a weird trip to Corpus Christi, Texas. And, we’ve seen the Islanders have lots of success at home this season (and over the past 4 years). This year, the Islanders have just one loss at home, and that came nearly two months ago to Lamar. Additionally, last year when McNeese State traveled to Corpus, it took a buzzer beater for the Cowboys to escape with a ONE POINT win. They did get the outright W, but they failed to come anywhere near covering a number. And keep in mind, that was a much better version of this McNeese State team. They went 30-3 overall, 17-1 in Southland Conference play, and they won the Southland regular season & conference tourney.

In addition to the spot here, I also like the matchup. The Islanders of A&M CC are the far superior 3-point shooting team. Coming into this game they are top 90 in the country (out of 364 teams), knocking down 35.4% of their triples. On the other side, McNeese is just 215th in the country from beyond the arc, knocking down LESS than 33% of their threes. The Islanders, being at home, being the better shooting team, and playing a team in McNeese who’s very average defending the three (125th in country in opponent 3-point FG% Defense), should give A&M CC a decent advantage here. Obviously, three-point shooting is not the end-all, be-all in college basketball. However, in a spot where you are looking at a dog of this size, and trying to make a case for a live dog, getting the significantly better shooting team at home is a great positional play.

Now, I really think A&M Corpus Christi is a live dog here. However, because of the way McNeese plays, and the fact that they DO have a significant overall talent advantage here, I’m going to look to the FIRST HALF here. The main reason being, I BELIEVE if Texas A&M CC gets down big in the first half, they are going to get blown out anyway, and they will NOT cover 8.5. However, there is a world where A&M CC is up or covering at halftime and blows it. But, their best shot to win and cover is to keep it close or have a small lead at halftime. Therefore, catching 5 points, I think we’re getting great value taking them in the first half. Additionally, the Islanders are one of the absolute WORST free throw shooting teams in the country (362nd out of 364 teams). And if the game is close in the second half, FT shooting tends to play a role. McNeese isn’t GREAT from the line, but they shoot it around 72%, while A&MCC shoots it at an abysmal 60%. If you like this breakdown, and wanted to go with A&M CC FULL GAME, I have no argument against it, I just believe the FIRST HALF is a slightly better play. I made this game line 6.5, which is where it opened. It’s currently 8.5. So my numbers show 2 points of value. But again, let’s ride with the first half. Take the ISLANDERS plus the points in the first half. If you want to have a little more fun, throw a few bucks on them MONEYLINE at +300

FREE PICK OF THE NIGHT: Texas A&M Corpus Christi +5 1H

Play Rating: None (Free Play, Not Official Client Play)

College Basketball Best Bets (Saturday, 1/25/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 25, 2025 | 4:17 A.M. CST

Overall Record: 21-8

Best Bets Saturday:

1) Texas -120 (ML) vs. Texas A&M

2) Kansas State -1 vs. West Virginia

3) Kansas +1.5 vs. Houston

All Plays: 2-Star

College Hoops Best Bet (1/24/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 24, 2025 | 2:37 P.M. CST

Overall Record: 20-8

Best Bet: Purdue -4.5 vs. Michigan

Don’t have time for a long breakdown today, so will give quick take here. Purdue is coming off an upset loss at home. The Boilermakers RARELY lose at home, as Mackey Arena is one of the best home court advantages in CBB. The loss came at the hands of a very bad Ohio State team, and it was a game Purdue never should have lost. Usually, coming off a loss, going on the road to a tough opponent would be one spot to be careful, but not playing at home. There’s almost zero shot Purdue loses back-to-back home games at Mackey arena, in conference play. It just does not happen.

Additionally, Michigan is a very streaky team. They started off the season hot, before having a mid-season lull. They responded with a great start to conference play, starting a perfect 5-0, before dropping one to Minnesota on the road in overtime in their last outing (Minnesota came into that game 0-6 in the Big 10). Michigan lost that game at the buzzer on basically a half court shot. The Wolverines had to sit on that tough loss for over a week, as that was last Thursday. Now they go on the road once again, taking on a more talented, well-coached Purdue team, out for blood after that last loss. I love Dusty Maye, and he’s going to turn Michigan into a National Championship level program, but just not this year.

I’m not sure why this number is so short to be honest. I made this Purdue -6.5. Give me the Boilers at home to bounce back and take care of the Wolverines. I would THINK this gets to 5, based on my numbers, but I’ve not seen any indication of a move that way to this point. The game starts in about 4 and a half hours. Either way let’s lay the 4.5 with Purdue here.

Official Pick: Purdue -4.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops Best Bet (1/22/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 22, 2025 | 6:43 P.M. CST

CBB Overall Record: 20-7

Best Bet Tonight: Ole Miss -3.5 vs. Texas A&M

Ole Miss has been one of the better surprises this season. Chris Beard was an elite basketball coach when at Texas Tech and during the start of his tenure at Texas. Obviously the circumsanstances of his exit in Austin were unfortunate, but without clear details of what actually happened, he took over the Ole Miss program the following season, and hasn’t looked back. And to be honest, he’s building this program just like he did in Lubbock. He has Mark Adams (old assistant at Tech) back with him in Oxford, and they’ve employed the famous “No-Middle Defense” that the Red Raiders were so good at under Beard. That along with some talented players, good shooting, and high effort guys have led Ole Miss to a 5-1 start to SEC play. Their lone loss came against Mississippi State ON THE ROAD in overtime in their last outing. I like them to bounce back here against the Aggies.

Although A&M did get Wade Taylor back, they aren’t the same Aggies team we saw at the end of the year last season with those dynamic guards. They are still elite on the offensive glass, but they are abysmal shooting the ball. They rank outside the top 300 teams in Division 1 in three point shooting, hitting on less than 30.5% of their shots from beyond the arc. They are highly reliant on creating extra possessions and on getting to the free throw line. This is a poor matchup for the Aggies as the Rebels are elite defensively and unless A&M has an uncharacteristic shooting night against a very good perimeter defense, I don’t see how they score enough to hang with Ole Miss.

Official Pick: Ole Miss -3.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

NFL Playoff Best Bet (Divisional Round)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 16, 2025 | 4:42 P.M. CST

Best Bet

• 2 Team, 6 Point Teaser: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 & Buffalo Bills +7.5

We are going back to the well with another playoff teaser. My teasers have been perfect over the past 7 weeks so let’s keep the streak going. Keep in mind, the BILLS number here is the most important thing. We need the Bills at +7.5 & it’s worth it to lay -120 at a 6.5 point teaser if necessary. There are plenty of Bills +1.5 out there. If you can get the Bills to +7.5 and the Chiefs are -2, that’s fine as well. In that case, don’t use a 6.5 point teaser, as Chiefs -1.5 is nearly identical, value wise, to Chiefs -2.

Overall, these are simple plays. The Kansas City Chiefs are a significant mismatch for the Houston Texans, who really struggled offensively against the LA Chargers. The scoreboard shows a blowout, but that game was anything but close for the majority of the contest. The Texans trailed 6-0 & the Chargers had the ball inside the Texans 40-yard line late in the second quarter. Had Justin Herbert not thrown a horrible interception, there’s a decent chance the Chargers go into halftime up 9-0 or possibly 13-0. Then, even on the ensuing drive, the Texans were facing a 3rd and 16 and CJ Stroud dropped the snap. The ball miraculously bounced back up to him in stride and instead of throwing it away he kept the play alive and found a receiver for 36 yards. That play truly sparked the Texans offense, as they went onto score a TD on that drive. Now, kudos to the Texans defense for keeping them in the game while the offense struggled. However, the game really went completely sideways in the third quarter when two dropped passes led to a pick-six and another pick that was nearly returned for a TD. Those two plays essentially ended the game for all intents & purposes. Regardless, this is just an incredibly difficult matchup for the Texans. They are not equipped, from a talent standpoint, to beat this KC team AT HOME, let alone in the cold of Arrowhead. The score may end up within the 7.5 points, but it will not be close.

Leg number two, we’re going to the Buffalo Bills +7.5. Honestly, I’d take either of these teams above a TD in this game, as I expect this to be a very tight, one-score game. However, I prefer the Bills over the Ravens. I actually make this game Bills -2. And I considered giving out the Bills +1 as a best bet as well (I still might). But there’s a very small chance that this game is a blowout either way. The Bills are a perfect 9-0 at home this season, 15-2 the last two years, and the two losses have both come by less than 7. So, the Ravens would have to do something that hasn’t been done in a LONG TIME; beat the Bills with Josh Allen in Buffalo by 2 scores. I just don’t see that happening. I think this is the Bills year. But, even if it’s not, I see the Ravens winning a close game if it doesn’t go Buffalo’s way. So we’re taking the best of the number and getting this above a TD for leg number 2.

Official Pick: KC Chiefs -1.5 + Buffalo Bills +7.5

Play Rating: 3-Star

College Basketball Best Bets (1/16/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 16, 2025 | 4:32 P.M.

Last Night: 0-2 | Overall Season: 19-7 (71%)

Best Bet

• Michigan Team Total OVER 77.5 vs. Minnesota (2-Star)