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College Hoops Best Bets (2/22/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 22, 2025 | 8:59 A.M. CST
Overall Record: 47-21
Best Bets Today:
1) Texas A&M ML (-120) vs. Tennessee
2) Vanderbilt -1 vs. Ole Miss
All Play Ratings: 2-Stars
Note: These are my two earlier slate games; check back at 1 for the later games. If you don’t see a post at 1, check back every 30 minutes. I could possibly add 2-3 more games. However, these are my top two plays of the day. They just happen to be earlier. Best of luck.
College Hoops Best Bet (2/21/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 21, 2025 | 4:30 P.M. CST
Overall Record: 46-21
Best Bet: Villanova +1.5 vs. Marquette
Look, I’m no Kyle Neptune fan. In fact, I believe Villanova made a massive mistake hiring this guy. He essentially came over with one year of experience as a head coach, and he had a losing record that year; and, he came in to take over a program that had been used to getting to Final Fours and winning National Titles under legendary coach Jay Wright. That said, backing Nova at home in conference play in a spot like this has been a very profitable endeavor for me over the past two seasons. This year we already cashed two tickets on this Nova team getting wins over ranked opponents at home. I believe we’re going to get a third one here.
Nova has actually been playing much better basketball lately, especially at home. They currently sit 15-12, 8-8 in the Big East, but heading into a road game against Providence last week they had just beaten #9 St. John’s, and they were on a 3-game win streak. That win over St. John’s was massive for their tournament hopes (at the time they had reached 15-10 overall, 8-6 in Big East). However, they then had to go on the road against an inferior Providence team who was looking to play spoiler, and that’s exactly what they did. It was a clear let down spot for Nova, and they definitely gave a let down worthy performance. But that’s exactly why I have a good feel for this Nova team. The spots where you think they will step up and beat a good team in a big spot at home, they almost always do. Similarly, when they’re coming off a big win, they often provide you with a big let down. They are a very predictable (almost cliché) team under Neptune, and that makes sense, considering he’s not a great coach. They followed up that loss with what was a really great performance ON THE ROAD at UCONN the following outing. They really outplayed the Huskies for 35 minutes. But, leading by double digits with just 7 minutes to play they absolutely collapsed. They not only lost the game, but nearly didn’t cover 7.5 (59-66 loss).
Regardless, I still liked what I saw from the Wildcats in the first 35 minutes against UCONN. With that in mind, they’ve played really good basketball for 4 of their last 5 games. And the two losses both came on the road. While Nova hasn’t been ELITE on the road, all of their losses have been tight games. And they absolutely feed off that home crowd, especially offensively. This is a team who is an EXCELLENT three-point shooting team and free throw shooting team, and they are even better when playing at home. Marquette, on the other hand, has been less than stellar as of late, and more importantly they’ve been less than stellar on the road. They lost their last two road games against St. John’s and Creighton. Now they did win their 4 previous road games prior to those two losses, however those wins came against Providence, Seton Hall, Butler, & Depaul (the 4 worst teams in the Big East). A couple of those games were very tight as well; they beat Butler by single digits & Depaul by just 2. In fact, their only road conference win over a team with a conference record above .500 came against Xavier (who is just 9-7 in Big East play) and it came by just 2 points. So I think this is a really good spot for Nova. They are back home, where they have played well lately, against a team who has STRUGGLED on the road lately (especially against better competition). Additionally, this is absolutely Nova’s season. While I don’t think they will get in the NCAA Tournament regardless of the outcome tonight, they know that a win here would put them back in the conversation. Falling back to 15-13 with just three games left would be a death sentence, especially considering they will likely have zero Quad 1 opportunities left; Georgetown is the highest NET Ranked team left that they have on the road, and they are currently 83rd in the NET (teams must be top 75 if playing them on the road for it to be a Q1 game). The rest of the games they play will be sub-quad 1 games. Thus, this is the last chance to add a signature win to their resumé before the conference tournament. And, as I said prior, while I think they’re way outside looking in, a win here plus running the table in 3 very winnable games puts them 19-13, 12-8 in the Big East, with a shot to win a couple Big East Tourney games. That MAY give them a shot. Overall, point being that this is a massive game for Nova (just like the St. John’s game was last week, when they stepped up and pulled the outright upset).
Lastly, matchup wise, I do like Nova in this specific game regardless of location. That is mainly because Marquette is not a good shooting team. They are a better defensive team than offensive team. And, while Nova doesn’t play at a crazy pace by any means, they are extremely efficient in the half court (specifically at home). If Nova has a hot game from beyond the arc, I just don’t know that Marquette can keep up offensively. Now, that said, Kyle Neptune led squads are always liable to blow late leads. We saw them blow a big lead late at UCONN last week and lose outright. We saw them blow an 11-point lead over St. John’s last week as well, although they were able to find a way to win this one. That said, UCONN has more offensive firepower than Marquette. And, St. John’s has shown a propensity to come from behind late in games (just ask UCONN). That said, I believe at home against this team, I don’t fear Nova blowing a big lead if they do get ahead late on THIS Marquette team.
Overall, I just think Nova has a clear edge here in every facet: the spot, the motivation, how the teams have looked lately, and style of play. Like I said early in the breakdown, I really like taking Nova in these spots: facing a ranked team at home as a short dog. I think we get one of Nova’s best efforts tonight. That doesn’t necessarily mean they will shoot the ball great. If they DO, though, I believe Nova can win this game going away. If they don’t, I still think they have a decent shot to win the game outright. So let’s back Villanova here. Take the 1.5 to be safe, but I think they will win the game outright.
Official Pick: Villanova +1.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Best Bets (2/18/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 18, 2025 | 4:21 P.M. CST
Overall Record: 44-21 (Last Night’s Play = Push)
Best Bets:
1) Mississippi State -2.5 vs. Texas A&M
This Mississippi State team is one of the weirder teams in the country this season. They started off the year 14-1, with some really impressive wins. They had 3 great road wins in their first 15 games: at SMU by 5, at Memphis by 13, and at Vanderbilt by 12 (all 3 are NCAA tournament teams). However, after the 14-1 start, they ran into that SEC gauntlet that so many teams have struggled with. The Bulldogs are just 4-6 in their last 10 games. That said, all of their losses in that stretch came against Top 20 teams, and 5 of those 6 came against teams who were ranked in the top 10 at the time of each matchup. The Texas A&M Aggies on the other hand, come into this game 20-5 (9-3, SEC) and currently riding a 5-game win streak (7-1 in last 8 games).
Part of the reason we are going to back the Bulldogs in this spot is looking at these two teams results. Mississippi State is traditionally very good at home; KenPom has them ranked 13th best in terms of home court advantage value to the point spread (3.9 points). However, MSST has lost 3 consecutive games at The Hump (their home gym). That said, those losses came to Florida, Alabama, and Missouri, three of the best teams in the conference, and two of the best 5 teams in the country. While A&M DOES come into this game ranked 7th in the AP Poll, the Aggies are actually ranked just 13th in KenPom. Not to say that KenPom is the end-all, be-all, but my numbers tend to agree more with KP than with the current top 25 “rankings.” I have A&M currently ranked as the 12th best team in the country; while, I have Florida 2nd, and Alabama 4th. Then you look at the Aggies road performances. They won at South Carolina by just 4 points (SC is winless in SEC play). They beat Ole Miss by 1; however, if you watched that game, the Aggies had no business winning. They trailed the entire way, including by 5 with under 30 seconds to play, and won in very flukey fashion due to Ole Miss missing the front end of a one-and-one and Obaseke nailing basically a buzzer beater from 3. And, they lost to both Kentucky and Texas on the road; two teams ranked LOWER than Mississippi State in my rankings. Their one impressive road win was against Missouri, and again that game could’ve gone either way. Mississippi State hasn’t lost 4 consecutive times at home in a long time, and the Aggies are due for a road loss. The Hump will be absolutely rocking tonight as the #7 ranked Aggies come into Starkville. And I like that State is going to be motivated to get a signature home victory.
While both teams come into this game sqaurely in the NCAA tournament, MSST definitely has more at stake. A&M currently sits 4th in the SEC, with a one game lead over Mizzou. However, the Aggies have the head to head advantage over Mizzou, giving them a little bit of extra cushion. They also get 3 of their final 5 games at home, and one of their two road games is at LSU (bottom of SEC), so they have a favorable path to a top 4 seed. Meanwhile, MSST currently sits in a tie for 8th in the SEC. However, considering UK beat MSST in their only head-to-head matchup, MSST really sits in 9th place. Why is that important? Because the top 8 teams in the SEC get a first round bye in the SEC tournament. It’s a big difference being in that 8th spot vs. 9th. Additionally, although MSST has some good wins on their schedule, they are 0-5 against Top 10 teams this year. This will be their 6th try, and their 3rd try at home. That said, the teams that have BEAT THEM in those matchups were all much better offensive teams than this Aggie group. While they do have some dynamic guards in Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps, they are a below average P5 offensive team. And, specifically a TERRIBLE shooting team. This A&M team is 292nd in the COUNTRY in Effective FG%, 306th in 3FG% (31.2%), 256th in 2FG% (49.2%), and 295th in FT% (68.4%). They rely heavily on their defense and on the offensive glass. And while MSST isn’t the greatest shooting team in the world either, they do rank in the top 35 in 2FG%. If MSST can keep A&M off the glass tonight, and have a relatively efficient shooting night from inside the arc, I think they have a very good shot of winning this game and covering the number.
Let’s ride with the home team here in this spot, as I think the Bulldogs get their signature top-10 win tonight in Starkville over the Aggies. Take Mississippi State -2.5
Official Pick: Mississippi State -2.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
2) Wisconsin -3.5 vs. Illinois
This Wisconsin team really impressed me over the weekend. I took Purdue at home at Mackey Arena, laying 5.5 points against the Badgers, and I really liked the play. While Purdue flirted with getting it to double digits in the first half, Wisconsin refused to allow that to happen, and even cut it to 1 heading into halftime. At about the 15 minute mark of the 2nd half, the Badgers seized COMPLETE control of the game, and from there Purdue never had a shot, in their own damn building. And it wasn’t because Purdue played terrible; it was because Wisconsin was really good. They have some dynamic guards, they have some solid bigs, they play hard, and they’re deep. It’s a hard combination to beat, and it’s why I’ve moved them up into the top 10 of my power rankings.
The Badgers also have only lost ONE home game all season, and it was months ago at home to Michigan (by just 3 points). On the other hand, 4 of Illinois losses this season have come on the road. And the Fighting Illini are just 1-3 in their last 4 road games in Big 10 play. They also lost their last game, Saturday, at home to Michigan State; a game they led by double digits much of the first half. Not only did the Illini blow the lead, they ended up losing by double digits, and they did so in UGLY fashion. Illinois finished the game a staggering ZERO for their last 20 shots. That’s right, they missed 20 consecutive shots to close the game. That stat alone, gives me confidence to back the Badgers here. You’re getting the better overall team, playing at home, against a team really lacking confidence at the moment. I understand how the market works, but this number is off. Wisconsin should be at least a 5.5 point favorite here. So it’s a good home/away matchup, we are getting significant value, and we’re taking the home team.
One last thing I want to mention that favors Wisconsin is the style and efficiency of these two teams. The way Illinois plays is one of the more baffling things I’ve watched over the past half-decade in college basketball. The Illini come into this game shooting an abysmal 31.1% from 3FGs, which is 308th in the country. For reference there are 364 total teams in D1 College Basketball. So they are one of the absolute WORST three point shooting teams in the country. However, for some reason, they are 27th in 3FGA rate; meaning, they take threes at a top 30 rate in college basketball (47.1% of their FGAs are 3FGAs). Again, that would make sense in today’s day & age IF the Illini were a decent to good 3 point shooting team. But being as bad as they are and continuing to launch that many triples, just does not make any sense. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is an excellent shooting team from both three and inside the arc. They shoot it over 5.5% better from beyond the arc than Illinois. Additionally, Wisconsin comes in 1st in the COUNTRY in FT% at 83.7%. Illinois comes in outside the top 50 in that category. And lastly, the one thing Illinois does REALLY well is crash the offensive glass. They rely heavily on offensive rebounds to keep them in games, and get them more shots due to the fact that they are highly inefficient. However, Wisconsin is excellent at keeping teams off the offensive glass. They are 44th in the country in ORB% defense. While that isn’t ELITE, it’s solid. And I believe it will be enough to keep the Illini at bay on the offensive glass.
Let’s back the home team here as well, laying way too short of a number. Badgers win this by double digits.
Official Pick: Wisconsin -3.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Best Bet (2/17/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 17, 2025 | 8:38 P.M. CST
Overall Record: 44-21 (67.7%)
Best Bet: Utah -117 (1H) vs. K-State
We’re going to back the Utah Utes in this spot. Early in the year I thought Utah had a shot to be a decent team, especially with an underrated home court advantage in a conference where they would have multiple opportunities for Q1 wins. However, the Utes really struggled early on in conference play. Lately they’ve been playing a little better, and they sit 6-8 in conference play. The Utes also got a huge home win Saturday over Kansas; they won outright as a 6.5 point dog.
K-State had about as bad of a start to the season as possible, but 4 consecutive Q1 wins over their last 5 games put the Wildcats back in the NCAA tournament picture. However, they were absolutely beat down by BYU on the road Saturday. I really like fading teams in that type of spot. It’s a team that has not been good all year, who got hot for a stretch and went on a win streak, but had that streak end. Those teams usually had confidence playing a big role in their run, so when they get blown out, they often have trouble responding.
Additionally, this K-State has got off to some horrible starts. They were down 17-0 to start a game a few weeks back. They trailed huge on the road at BYU on Saturday. Meanwhile, Utah has a big home court advantage. They are 13-3 at home this season, and they tend to do so by getting off to good starts. We saw it against Kansas their last time out. Let’s back the home team in the first half on the moneyline. Utes -117.
Official Pick: Utah -117 (1H)
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Best Bet (2/16/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 16, 2025 | 8:59 A.M. CST
Overall Record: 43-21
Best Bet: Wichita State +7.5 vs. Memphis
Official Pick: Wichita State +7.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Additions
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 15, 2025 | 4:29 P.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) SDSU -2.5 vs. Boise State
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Best Bets (2/15/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 15, 2025 | 3:54 A.M. CST
Overall Season Record: 42-19 (68.9%)
Best Bets:
1) Purdue -5.5 vs. Wisconsin
2) Arizona +2 vs. Houston
Both Play Ratings: 2-Star
College Hoops Best Bet (2/13/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 13, 2025 | 2:43 A.M. CST
Overall Record: 42-18 (70.0%)
Best Bet: Nebraska -1.5 vs. Maryland
What a whirlwind of a season it’s been for Fred Hoiberg and the Nebraska Corn Huskers. They started off the season 12-2, with wins over UCLA, Indiana, and on the ROAD over Creighton in one of the toughest environments in college basketball. Their only losses in those first 14 games were on a neutral floor to a very good St. Mary’s team (currently 22-4, atop the WCC) by just 3; and, at Michigan State who has been a top ten team much of the season. However, after the hot start, they preceded to lose 6 consecutive games (all conference games), dropping to 12-8 overall, 2-7 in the Big 10, falling all the way to the bottom of the B10 standings. It is important to mention, that although they went through that tough losing streak, 2 of the games were decided by just 3 points, one by 5 points, and one in overtime. There were really only 2 blowout losses in that stretch, and both were road games (at Purdue, and at Wisconsin, both ranked teams with big HC advantages). The Huskers were not playing terrible, they just could not close out games, and they MIGHTILY struggled on the road. Regardless, since that 28 point loss at Wisconsin, this Huskers team really pulled itself off the matte. They have put together a 4-game win streak (3 of which were over probable NCAA tourney teams), and got themselves squarely back in the NCAA Tournament picture.
A win over a ranked Maryland team today would not only get the Corn Huskers back to .500 in the Big 10, but it likely places them IN the projected NCAA tournament field. It also would be Nebraska’s 6th Quad 1 win, which would be more than Alabama, Houston, and Florida each currently have. Additionally, the rest of their schedule shakes out quite favorably, as 4 of their final 6 games come against teams currently in the bottom 6 of the Big 10 standings. I say all this to depict how big of a game this is for Nebraska. We are absolutely going to get their best effort hear. It’s going to be in front of a sold out, ruckus crowd in Lincoln. And, they are currently playing with loads of confidence. Bryce Williams, their leader and best player, did an interview following their win over Ohio State. He mentioned how Wisconsin had gone on a big losing streak to start conference play, and how they turned their season around and were now ranked in the top 25. He went on to say that now that they got over the hump and got a win, they could BELIEVE they could win games; it was just about consistency going forward. And, they’ve backed that up the past 4 outings.
Now, Maryland is a very solid basketball team, and they are obviously going to be in the NCAA tournament. However, one area they’ve struggled in this season is on the road. They are just 2-5 in true road games this season, including their last outing at Ohio State (a game we backed the Buckeyes). Additionally, one of their two road wins came at Indiana by just one point. Late in that game it looked like a sure loss, as the Terrapins trailed by 4 with 38 seconds to go. It took the Hoosiers missing the front end of a 1-and-1, followed by a three pointer in the final few seconds to give Maryland a one point win. Overall, the Terps STRUGGLE on the road, and Nebraska has created one of the better home court advantages in college basketball. It’s going to be a tough task for Maryland to win this game outright.
On the matchup front, there’s one area stylistically that strongly favors the Corn Huskers. Maryland is heavily reliant on 2FGs; they get 52.2% of their total production from inside the arc (top 100 in country). They are 232nd in the country production from 3FGs. Now, Nebraska is solid defensively overall (34th nationally in Defensive Efficiency). However, they specifically matchup well here against Maryland. They allow one of the highest % of production in the country from three, but one of the lowest from 2. It’s going to take Maryland having a big night from three in order to win this game. And while they shoot a solid percentage on the season, they have not shown a propensity to knock down the outside shot in large volume. Additionally, Maryland’s three point percentage (36.8%) significantly drops in true road games. The Terps shoot 2% worse from beyond the arc in true road games vs. neutral/home games this year. Additionally, in their 5 road losses, that number drops all the way to 33.2% (below national average).
With all that in mind, we can also look at Nebraska’s recent performances to gauge how they are playing right now. In those 4 games the Huskers have been great defensively. They are allowing teams to shoot 31.3% from three and 48.9% from two in that stretch. These numbers are significantly better than their season averages, and would rank both top 50 in the country nationally. They’ve also done a great job taking care of the ball in that stretch (only 8.5 TO’s/game). And, they’ve been very efficient shooting the ball, making over 56% of twos during the same stretch.
Overall, the Corn Huskers are playing some great basketball as of late, and there is no indication that won’t continue tonight. Maryland is playing well lately as well, but their road struggles will continue as they travel to play in a very hostile environment. Nebraska knows this game is massive for their NCAA tournament hopes, and we are going to see one of their best efforts in this one. One final thing I will mention is that Nebraska did lose their starting center at the end of their win over Ohio State. Berke Buyuktuncel has been solid for them in the front court, and they’d obviously love to have him. That said, the backup Center for Nebraska plays very similar minutes to Buyuktuncel, and he’s had some really big games this season. In fact, the first time Maryland and Nebraska met Andrew Morgan (that backup big) led the Huskers in scoring with 17 points, while also adding 5 boards. Now I’m not saying it’s an upgrade, but I do believe Morgan has shown to be just as effective as Buyuktuncel. The thing this hurts the most is the DEPTH of this Nebraska team. When Morgan goes out they are going to have to buy some time without a legitimate center in the game. I strongly believe this won’t be an issue, however I did want to mention it here for those tailing. Despite the injury, I still make this line Nebraska -3. We’re laying just 1.5 here so let’s take Nebraska and lay the short number and see if we can’t get a little streak going heading into the weekend, after the win last night.
Official Pick: Nebraska -1.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Best Bet (2/12/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 12, 2025 | 3:49 P.M. CST
Overall Record: 41-18 (69.5%)
Best Bet: Villanova +3 vs. St. John’s
We’re going to fade the Johnnies one more time here (it’s not worked out for us in the past LOL). Look the Johnnies are due for a loss. It’s not that I don’t think they are a good team, but when you have a team shooting this poorly from three, and relying so heavily on 2FGs, eventually they are going to have a night where they have enough trouble scoring to lose a game. Legitimately the Johnnies have needed some very fortunate luck to go their way to continue this incredible win streak in Big East play. They were getting their doors blown off against UCONN last week when I faded them and UCONN blew the lead on their home floor. St. John’s went on a crazy run late to win the game outright as a three point dog. They also caught UCONN at a good time as their star freshman Liam McNeeley was in his first game back from a month long absence due to an injury. McNeely was 4/17 from the field that night, and couldn’t buy a three. For reference on how good he can actually be, he went for 37 points last night AT CREIGHTON. So that was a big help to the Johnnies that he was incredibly rusty coming off that long break.
Look at this specific matchup, Villanova is one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country, knocking down nearly 40% of their triples on the season (4th in Nation). They also shoot 81% from the FT line, good for 9th in the nation. This is a team that is excellent shooting the ball, and they have the ability to legitimately trade 3s for 2s in this matchup. Additionally, Nova is one of the slowest paced teams in the country, while St. John’s is one of the faster paced teams in the nation. It’s much easier to slow a game down than it is to speed the game up, especially as the home team. I really like the matchup in terms of efficiency; it reminds me a little of Kentucky/Tennessee which we won last night catching a similar number.
Overall, we have reached PEAK MARKET for St. John’s and that is why this game hit my radar. Not that Villanova is some juggernaut, but this number is just way too high, especially the way we’ve seen bookmakers exaggerate home court advantage over the past few seasons. My numbers made this St. John’s -.5 (essentially a pick ‘em) and we are CATCHING 3 points. It’s at home, obviously. But also, it is LEGITIMATELY Villanova’s season. They aren’t really even in the conversation at this point, but a win over a top 10 team in the country would give them a chance with a great end to the regular season and possibly a deep run in the Big East Tournament. Let’s roll with another home dog; just too hard to pass up this number with Nova at home.
Official Pick: Villanova +3 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Late Night Live Bet (2/11/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 11, 2025 | 9:07 P.M. CST
This will not be an official play; HOWEVER, if you are reading this in time, you SHOULD BET IT AS AN OFFICIAL PLAY. I just don’t want to grade this as an official play when most people won’t be checking this at this time. That said, it would be a legitimate 3-star play if you are able to get it in.
Unofficial Best Bet: Texas A&M +135 (LIVE) vs. Georgia
Texas A&M is currently down 9 at halftime to Georgia. They scored only 23 points in the first half, playing one of their worst offensive halves all year. The Aggies aren’t a great shooting team, but they are WAY better than this Georgia team. Georgia was good early in the year but has comeback down to earth lately. I’d be pretty surprised if A&M didn’t catch another gear and comeback and win this game with ease. The logic is this: A&M WILL make some sort of a run early in the second half and they will get this thing within 1-2 possessions. That will get the crowd into this game. At that point you are getting A&M laying points if they are only down 2-3 points. So at worst, we’re getting GREAT value here. I think A&M makes a big run early in the half. I give A&M a 65% chance to win this game right now and we are getting +135 odds. It’s incredible value. Take A&M ML right now at any number you can get (plus money).
Unofficial Pick: Texas A&M +135 (LIVE)
Unofficial Play Rating: 3-Star
College Basketball Best Bets (2/11/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 11, 2025 | 3:32 P.M. CST
Overall Season Record: 40-17 (70.2%)
Note: Another easy winner last night and our great run continues. Below are my best bets for tonight with a VERY SHORT summary as I’m posting late. Sorry for the late post, but here they are.
Best Bets:
1) Kentucky +2.5 vs. Tennessee: We are going back to the well here & taking UK over Tennessee. I actually really like this Tennessee team and I don’t think this Kentucky team is all that great overall. HOWEVER, this is just a bad matchup for Tennessee. They are a team that really struggles to score at times, and they struggle to make threes on the road. Kentucky is the 2nd best offense in the country (KenPom). So we took UK as a 10.5 point dog last time these two played at Tennessee, and UK won the game outright. Sometimes the revenge aspect is a good thing; not for this particular matchup. This matchup just benefits Kentucky in terms of what the teams are good at and their style of play. UK also didn’t even have their starting PG when they beat the Vols in Knoxville a couple weeks back; Butler IS playing tonight. So let’s roll with the Wildcats plus the short number.
Official Pick: Kentucky +2.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
2) Mississippi State +2.5 vs. Florida: I REALLY like this Florida team this season. I think they can be a legitimate Final Four team come late March, and even challenge for a National Championship. That said, this is a terrible spot for Florida. They are coming off, quite possibly the BIGGEST win in college basketball. Saturday, they went on the road to Auburn and beat the number 1 team in the country by 9 in their own building. And, they did it without Elijah Martin (2nd leading scorer for Florida). Martin is expected to play tonight, but we don’t know that for sure yet. The line absolutely indicates he IS going to play. However, if he does end up getting ruled out before game time, this is going to move at least 3 points. So there is a chance we get a better number than the market. Mississippi State has lost 3 of their last 4 games at home, which is highly abnormal for this squad. They are a legitimate 4 or 5 seed in the NCAA tournament, and they have a huge home court advantage. Primetime, against the #3 team in the country, the Hump is going to be rocking in Starkvegas. Also Josh Hubbard tends to have his best performances in the biggest games. I think he has a huge game tonight offensively. Fading teams like this off big time wins over the past couple seasons, then going on the road as a favorite - it’s been very profitable over the past couple seasons in college basketball. So, let’s fade Florida in this perfect let down spot, and ride Josh Hubbard and the Bulldogs in the Hump tonight as they will pull the outright upset.
Official Pick: Mississippi State +2.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Best Bet (2/10/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 10, 2025 | 4:19 P.M. CST
Season Record: 39-17 (69.4%)
Best Bet: Clemson -4.5 vs. North Carolina
Going into the weekend North Carolina was one of Joe Lunardi’s “Next 4 Out”. Technically they were the 6th team out. However, after beating Pittsburgh at home in a very tight game, they will surely move up slightly. They will likely be one of the “Last 4 Out” when Lunardi updates his bracket tomorrow. Regardless, this is not your typical North Carolina team, as we have become accostumed to the Tar Heels being in the NCAA tournament every season. Under Roy Williams UNC made the tournament all but one time in 18 seasons (excluding the COVID year where no tourney was played). Since Hubert Davis took over, the program has been far less consistent. The first year Davis led the program, the Tarheels had a very subpar season and got in the NCAA Tournament as just an 8-seed. However, they made an improbable run to the NCAA National Championship, where they lost to the Kansas Jayhawks. That year they finished the season 24-9, and were never ranked higher than 18. The following season the Tarheels opened the year as the NUMBER ONE overall team in the country, and yet they missed the NCAA Tournament entirely. Last year they finished the season extremely well and got in as a #1 seed, only to get upset in the Sweet 16. And now this year, the Tarheels looked to be in serious danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. My point being, this team has been quite inconsistent under Hubert Davis from year to year, but also from week to week.
Now, UNC did return some talent from the team last season that was a #1 seed, including leading scorer RJ Davis. Davis’ PPG have dropped nearly 4 per contest this year, and he’s been much less efficient than in years past. His three point percentage this season is the worst of his entire career (under 32%), while his FG% has dropped to the lowest number since his freshman season. Davis’ struggles have been a big reason the Tarheels haven’t been nearly as good as expected. However, the issue is, it’s not just one thing that’s plaguing the Tarheels; across the board they are just down this season. Losing Armando Baycott has cost them big time inside the paint, as they have no reliable big men when going up against good competition. Additionally, the guards/forwards that DID comeback have improved, but not at the rate expected. For example, Elliott Cadeau returned. His knock was his inability to shoot effectively, shooting just 19% from three last season and 64% from the FT line. This year he’s up 3 PPG on his average, and he’s improved his three point shooting and FTs. The PROBLEM is that he still only shoots 30% from beyond the arc, and he’s a sub-70% FT shooter.
Clemson, on the other hand, lost PJ Hall, their best player from last season. But they returned their 3rd & 4th leading scorers in Chase Hunter and Ian Schieffelin. They also got Chauncey Wiggins back who was a key contributor. And more importantly, they added Viktor Lahkin, a 7’0 Cinci transfer, who’s been one of their best players. He’s made the transition much easier for Clemson this season, after losing PJ Hall. They also added Jayden Zachary from Boston College, who is double digit PPG scorer who is a knock down shooter (career 39.2% 3FGs) So, although both teams lost similar amounts, in terms of production, the Tigers did a much better job replacing guys, and the guys they did return were much better players than the ones UNC got back. Lastly, this is a much more experienced Clemson roster, when you look at it. Chase Hunter, Ian Schieffelin, Viktor Lahkin, and Jayden Zachary are ALL seniors, and all have played over 100 games in college. The next three guys in the rotation in Wiggins, Dylan Hunter, & Jake Heidbreder are all juniors. So this team is highly experienced, and that’s largely why they were able to take down the #2 team in the country in Duke this weekend.
Looking at the matchup, Clemson is the MUCH better shooting team as well. Clemson is 16th in the country in 3 point percentage at 38.6%, while North Carolina is shooting UNDER 33% from beyond the arc, which is good for 234th in the country. North Carolina has just 3 guys currently shooting above 33% from three, while Clemson has 8. Additionally, North Carolina’s 3-point defense is not good; they are 186th in the country in 3FG% defense. The other area I believe Clemson has a distinct advantage tonight is the turnover department. Both teams are very good at not turning the ball over; Clemson’s TO% is 15.6 (59th in Nation), while UNC’s is 15.1% (37th in Nation). However, Clemson is great at forcing TO’s at 19.9% per game (59th), while UNC is 320th in the country in TO% forced. So, while both teams normally take care of the ball, I believe Clemson’s defense will be able to get some of those UNC guard’s to make mistakes. And winning the TO battle will be big tonight.
Here’s the final thing: I made this line Clemson -7.3. The line currently sits -4.5. Usually when I have that big of a differential, I have to dive into it and make sure I didn’t miss something (like an injury or the location or some sort of external factor). The problem here is there is really nothing like that. The only reason I can explain this opening 5.5 and getting bet DOWN is the fact that it’s a tough spot for Clemson. They are coming off a big win over #2 Ranked Duke Saturday afternoon. There was a court storming and everything, and to come back down from that emotional high and have to now get back up for this one is tough. That said, as I mentioned, this is a very veteran group and I think they’ll be good to go. This is UNC’s season essentially; they NEED this Quad 1 win against a ranked team. It would really boost their resumé, while a loss would likely drop them back to a “Next Four Out” Team. Regardless of how important this game is, I still think Clemson at home, and laying way less than my number shows gives good value. Let’s roll with Clemson
Official Pick: Clemson -4.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
Super Bowl Best Bets & Prop Bets (2/9/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 9, 2025 | 8:51 A.M. CST
Best Bet: Eagles ML 1st Half (-110)
In all honesty I like the Eagles in the game from a power number perspective. I get the Eagles have an inferior coach and QB, but the Eagles are much better in every other area. Overall, I made this Eagles -2.7 and we’re currently sitting at Chiefs -1.5? I just don’t get to this number even though it’s a non-valuable number
All that said, I just don’t trust Jalen Hurts late in games and Mahomes and Andy Reid scare the shit out of me; I refuse to bet against them in a full game here. The only time I bet against them in a SB was when they faced Tom Brady (who is the GOAT). So instead of going against the Chiefs in the game, I’m going to go against them in the first half. I believe the Eagles will come out strong, and lead at halftime. I just fear what could happen late. So let’s FLY (pun intended) with the first half only.
Official Pick: Eagles -110 (1H)
Play Rating: 2-Star
Prop Bets:
1) Harrison Butker OVER 1.5 FGs (-138): The Chiefs have one of the highest redzone rates in the NFL. In fact, it is the best redzone rate for a Chiefs team since the 2018 season. However, the Eagles have one of the best redzone defenses in the NFL. I could see the Chiefs reaching the redzone often in this game, but getting held to FGs. I also think in a dome, we are liable to see a long kick from Butker, and he’s been the best in NFL History on 50+ yarders in the playoffs.
2) Jalen Hurts to Win SB MVP +340: Look, I don’t think Jalen Hurts is a great QB by any means. However, it’s downright wrong that the price is what it is. Saquon Barkley is great, but there is. no way he’s going to have a big game here against Spagnola with 2 weeks to prep. Spags is going to make Jalen Hurts beat them in this game, and if the Eagles win it will be because Jalen Hurts has a great game. I just DO NOT see a path where the Eagles win and Hurts doesn’t have at least 3 TDs. So, although I think the Chiefs PROBABLY win this game, it’s legitimately 50-50. And if the Eagles DO win it’s going to be Hurts. So the price at +340 is wild to me. This is an AUTO bet for me the second I saw this price. It’s down a bit, but take it now at any number +250 or higher
Both Prop Bets = 1-Star
College Basketball Weekly Summary (2/9/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 9, 2025 | 1:53 A.M. CST
Best Bets Summary (2/3/25-2/9/25)
Monday
Wins
UAB -2 vs. North Texas (Final Score: UAB 64, North Texas 61): UAB came into this game the hottest team in the American, not named Memphis, while North Texas came in after losing at home to a subpar UTSA team. These two teams were battling for 2nd place in the American, and I liked UAB with the home court edge, coming in with tons of confidence. Overall, it was a very tight game, but UAB led most of the way; the box score was pretty dead even, but the difference came on the offensive glass, where UAB finished +4 (an area they are elite, and I touched on in my breakdown). UAB pulled it out by 3 and was able to win and cover for us.
Losses: None
Monday Record: 1-0 (100%)
Tuesday:
Wins: None
Pushes
Northwestern -2 vs. USC (Final Score: NW 77, USC 75): This was a really brutal push to swallow on Tuesday night. I really liked this play, and it absolutely WAS the right side all night long. Northwestern led by 15 (59-44) with UNDER 10 minutes to play in the game. But just as they took that double digit lead, their leading scorer in the game, Jalen Leach, went down with a knee injury, and was out for the game. NW is not deep at all, after losing their starting PG for the year last week. So a young player who hadn’t played much this year was forced into action, and he clearly wasn’t ready to be in that moment. USC began trapping the ball and leaving him wide open, and after a few mistakes his confidence dropped so low he caught (with NOBODY on him) multiple times and just waited for a defender to recover. The same player fouled three separate times on three point shots in the final 4 minutes of the game, twice resulting in and-one threes. Still, with all that, NW led by 6 with under a minute to play, and by 4 with 30 seconds. Down 4 with 30 seconds, though, one of those and one threes hit, which led to a tie game. NW had the ball and was able to take the last shot which they hit; even here was tough, because Martenelli (NW’s best player) was absolutely fouled on the make which should’ve been an and one and given NW a free throw to cover. I will always admit when I take the wrong side when evaluating the picks; this was not one of those. This was the right side, and an unlucky push.
Losses
BYU -2 vs. Arizona (Final Score: Arizona 85, BYU 74): Speaking of being on the wrong side, we were on the wrong end here. Arizona was the side all night. The two teams were tied at halftime, and it BYU had hung in there. But it was clear early that Caleb Love was on a heater; and he has been for multiple games. Since hitting the half court shot against ISU he’s been much less streaky. I knew at that point this was in trouble. BYU did make a late push and actually had the lead in the second half, but every time they made a run, Arizona answered. Funny enough, this Arizona team looked LOST early in the year. Tommy Lloyd really turned this ship around and has Arizona looking like a legit contender. BYU lost again today to a bad Cincinnati team on the road, and they look back to reality after a 4-game win streak. Regardless, this was the wrong side; good win for Arizona. Remind me never to back the Mormons again (JK).
Tuesday Record: 0-1-1 (0%)
Wednesday:
Wins
Washington (1H) -1 vs. Nebraska (First Half Score: Washington 47, Nebraska 37): I talked about this in the preview, but I liked this Huskies team and the way they were trending. However, they tend to fall apart late. They have some talent in the starting 5, but they have absolutely no depth and their best player is a big man who is often forced to play too many minutes. He often struggles late in games and it hurts the Huskies. Nebraska, on the other hand, really struggles on the road. I considered Washington full game, but considering their lack of depth and the fact that Nebraska was off a big win, I decided to go first half, and thankfully so. Washington won the first half easily, before falling apart entirely in the second half and losing by double digits. Got the win to go 1-1 on the night.
Losses
UCF ML vs. Cincinnati (Final Score: Cincinnati 93, UCF 83): I really felt like this was a get right spot for UCF. They were coming off back to back tough losses to Kansas and BYU. The loss to KU was on the road, and they played really well, just couldn’t finish the job. The BYU game the Knights played very well for 3/4ths of the game and once again lost it in the final few minutes. Considering this was a home game, and a MUST win for their season against one of the bottom teams in the Big 12, I did not think they lay an egg. But, that’s exactly what they did (at least defensively). Allowing Cinci to put up 93 points is absurd, especially considering they shot 58.5% from the field. It was a terrible performance for the Knights, and it pretty much sealed their season fate, missing the NCAA Tourney. Avoiding that loss would’ve gone a long way. I was high on this UCF team early in the year, but this was one you just couldn’t drop. Wrong side, wrong pick.
Wednesday Record: 1-1 (50.0%)
Thursday
Wins
Ohio State -1 vs. Maryland: I tend to be on the wrong end of some pretty brutal beats each year (I’d say 4 to 1 ratio on bad beats to lucky wins). This wasn’t a bad beat for those who had Maryland, however, it was a fortunate win. Maryland was the right side for most of the game. Ohio State trailed by 10 late in the game, before going on a big run. The Buckeyes ended up with the ball in a tie game with the shot clock turned off. Bruce Thornton, a veteran Buckeye guard, had the ball in his hands with the clock running down. Good defense from the Terps forced Thornton to shoot a very tough stepback three, and Thornton BANKED it in. The Buckeyes pulled out a lucky victory after trailing most of the night, and we pulled out a nice 1-0 night to bounce back after two tough nights.
Losses: None
Thursday Record: 1-0 (100%)
Friday
Wins: None
Losses
UCONN -3 vs. St. John’s (Final Score: St. John’s 68, UCONN 62): UCONN came into this game really needing this win to stay in the hunt in the Big East, especially considering it was against the team atop the Big East. The Huskies also got back Liam McNeeley, their 5-star freshman, who had been out for over a month with a high ankle sprain. With McNeely back in the lineup, the Huskies came out absolutely on fire, and jumped all over the Johnnies. They led pretty much the entirety of the game until about 8 minutes to go. But, St. John’s went on a huge run late in the game, and once they seized the lead they never gave it back. They won the game outright, and UCONN proved they are just not going to be any sort of contender this season. Dan Hurley was the hottest ticket in town 10 months ago, and now he is climbing towards being unlikable. St. John’s on the other hand may be a team to be reckoned with in the tournament if they can overcome their inability to knock down threes.
Friday Record: 0-1 (0%)
Saturday
Wins
Clemson +7.5 vs. Duke (Final Score: Clemson 77, Duke 71): This was probably my favorite play of the day, and it proved to be the right side. I gave this out on the early bird plays, knowing it would move. We got in at +7.5 and this closed +6 (obviously covered both) Clemson trailed much of the first half, but never got down more than 9. They kept in striking distance, pounded it inside, and wore Duke down over 40 minutes. The Tigers DOMINATED the glass (36-23, +13, & +3 on ORBs), as well as points in the paint (40-23). The Tigers also shot the lights out (58.8% FGs & 40% 3FGs). All those things led to an OUTRIGHT win for Clemson over #2 Duke, ending the Blue Devils undefeated run in ACC play.
Kansas State +4.5 vs. Kansas (Final Score: K-State 81, Kansas 73): It was weird to say that a team coming in 11-11 with a losing record in conference was trending up, while a team coming in 16-7 (7-4 in Conference) was trending down; but, that was the case. K-State came in on a 4-game win streak, and they were catching 4.5 against KU. This Jayhawks team just isn’t what we expected, and backing the home dog in a crazy environment proved to be the right call. KU’s road woes continue and K-State got the OUTRIGHT win.
Kentucky -10.5 vs. South Carolina (Final Score: UK 80, South Carolina 57): This one was simple, as UK came in 1-4 in their last 5, off back to back losses. But all of those losses came to tournament teams, and 3 of the 4 came without their starting PG in Lamont Butler. He returned today, which provided a spark. They also were in a comfortable home environment against a very bad South Carolina team, who is highly offensively challenged. The Gamecocks couldn’t keep up, and they were catching an angry Kentucky team due for a good performance. Easy win here
Creighton -1 vs. Marquette (Final Score: Creighton 77, Marquette 67): There are some teams that you back in certain spots almost regardless of roster, price, and year. The Bluejays in a home Big East game against a ranked team laying 3 points or less is one of those teams. That met all the criterea here. The Bluejays also came in winners of 5 straight, and Marquette was coming off back to back losses AND playing a second straight road game, after a loss to St. John’s earlier this week. I gave this out as an early bird play at -1. It closed Creighton -3 and we covered both numbers easily with a double digit victory.
UTSA +1.5 vs. East Carolina (Final Score: ECU 80, UTSA 79): This was a wild game all the way through. UTSA led for almost the entirety of the first half, and a good chunk of the second half. After a back and forth last 10 minutes, the Roadrunners looked to have won this outright. They led by 4 with 25 seconds to play, and got a stop. They got the ball in and just had to get fouled, but they turned it over and ECU turned it into an and one layup. After making the FT, UTSA led by 1, but turned it over AGAIN. ECU trailed by one and hit a pretty lucky floater from 10 feet to take a one point lead. Trailing by one we were covering, and luckily time expired on the final shot. It did not go in and UTSA lost by 1. Luckily a loss for them was still a win for us +1.5. Runners gave us our 5th victory of the day.
Washington -1 (1H) vs. Northwestern (First Half Score: Washington 39, NW 30): This was the second time I backed the Huskies this week, both times at home in the first half, and both times were easy winners. This Washington team has some talent, starting with their Utah State transfer in Great Osobor, however they aren’t deep whatsoever. They had been playing much better lately, but had run out of gas for that very reason in a number of games. We won on them earlier in the week as they led Nebraska big at halftime, earning us an easy win. However, they blew that game and lost outright. Last night the Huskies did the EXACT same thing, leading by 9 at halftime, getting up as many as 14, and losing the entire lead. However, they were able to pull the game out anyways. But, glad it was stress free for us and we had the first half. Also was fun to watch Chris Collins (NW Head Coach) get tossed in the first half. This was the last play of the day, and it was a great way to cap off a great day in college hoops.
Losses:
Florida Atlantic @ Tulsa OVER 149.5 (Final Score: FAU 79, Tulsa 55): This one is hard to explain. I have to admit this was one game I didn’t watch today. I watch most games live (5 TVs at once + 2 Computers + 1 phone). However, this was an ugly game I didn’t have an interest in. I will go back and watch to see if I can gain any information about either team from it. Looking at the box score, both teams shot below their season average from the FT line, and both teams got to the free throw line significantly less than usual (30 combined FTs btw two teams). I guess I overlooked how bad Tulsa is shooting 3s. I believed that considering FAU is one of the worst 3FG defense in the country, Tulsa would likely shoot somewhere in the range of 33%-35% (slightly above season numbers); instead, they shot an abysmal 14.3% (3/21). If they even shoot just their season average, which is below 33%, and both teams shoot their season average on FTs, this game goes over. I also would say I overlooked Tulsa’s pace. I knew they played slower, but I figured if FAU got ahead, Tulsa would be forced to play with more pace. That wasn’t the case, as FAU had a big lead and Tulsa still just could not score on a bad defense. Regardless, the total missed, but that was our only early day loss.
Missouri -2.5 vs. Texas A&M (Final Score: Texas A&M 67, Missouri 64): I gave this one out as an early bird pick. And we got way ahead of a line move, which was great; I got in at 2.5 and it closed MIZ -4.5. Missouri got absolutely jumped on from the start of this game, and it looked like A&M could run away with it. But, that’s the thing about backing home teams; even in games you probably should lose, USUALLY the crowd can will you back into it. That’s what happened here as Missouri trailed by as many as 12 in the first half, and stormed back behind their crowd to take a 5 point lead with under 8 minutes to play. It really felt like the Tigers had all the. momentum and were going to find a way to win this thing, especially after Wade Taylor IV picked up his 4th foul with 10 minutes to go. But A&M is a gutsy team and hung in there with Taylor on the bench; and then when he came back in they regained the lead. It looked like we were headed for OT, which would’ve given us a real shot; tied with 10 seconds left. But Wade Taylor hit a dagger three with 2.8 left. Caleb Grill nearly hit a half court shot to send it to OT at the buzzer, but it just missed. Overall, A&M was definitely the right side here, but Missouri also had one of their worst shooting nights of the year. Chalk this one up to that, because although A&M is good defending the perimeter, they were fortunate Caleb Grill couldn’t buy a three; there were plenty of good looks Mizzou just missed. Regardless, 6-2 overall on the day is phenomenal.
Saturday Record: 6-2 (75.0%)
OVERALL WEEK RECORD: 9-5-1 (64.3%)
Updated Season Overall Record: 38-17 (69.1%)
Super Bowl Sunday CBB Pick of the Day (2/9/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 9, 2025 | 1:33 A.M. CST
Best Bet: Nebraska -1.5 vs. Ohio State
Short summary, as it’s late and I need to post my weekly summary. However, I really like the Huskers in this spot. They were higher on my radar early in the year, before going on a really tough 7-game losing streak. But, they looked to have finally turned a corner. They’ve won three games in a row, including two road games in tough environments. Ohio State, on the other hand, is a solid basketball team, but they are incredibly inconsistent. They are coming off a very lucky win to Maryland, where they trailed nearly the entire game and won on a banked in three in the final seconds. Nebraska’s fans know how big of a game this is for their tournament hopes, and that place will be absolutely ROCKING tonight. Let’s back the Huskers at the short number. I’m almost CERTAIN you will see this hit 2, and even 2.5 or 3. So back them as early as you can when you see this. ML at -130 or better is okay as well.
Official Pick: Nebraska -1.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Best Bets (2/8/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 7, 2025 | 7:24 P.M. CST
Overall Record: 32-15 (68.1%)
Best Bets:
1) Missouri -2.5 vs. Texas A&M: I gave this out last night on my early bird post, to get ahead of the line move. It’s currently 4.5. Not a bet at 4.5 If it gets back below 4, go ahead and fire away
2) Clemson +7.5: vs. Duke: Also Gave this one out last night, we’re starting to see this trend to 7. Grab it ASAP. It’s good to +7, but not below 7
3) FAU @ Tulsa OVER 149.5: These are two of the worst defensive teams in the country; both rank towards the bottom of the NCAA in opponent Points Per Possession. FAU has a top 70 offense, while neither team ranks in the top 215 in defensive efficiency. FAU pushes the pace, and this could turn into a track meet
4) UTSA +1.5 vs. ECU: UTSA has been playing much better basketball lately. They went on the road and beat North Texas, who was undefeated in AAC play coming into that game. They followed up with what should’ve been a big home upset over Tulane, but squandered a 9 point lead in the final 2 minutes to lose by 1. UTSA has played well at home and they’re gelling much better right now. Going with the hot hand, even though metrically it’s a pick em.
5) Kansas State +5.5 vs. Kansas: This one is simple; two teams trending in opposite directions. K state has a had a very poor season but they’ve been a different team the past two weeks. Kansas has been awful on the road. We’re backing the dog in this rivalry game
6) Washington 1H ML (-115) vs. Northwestern: Washington has been playing much better basketball as of late, they just tend to collapse in the second half. I had a play on them in the first half this week against Nebraska and they led big at halftime and lost outright. I like them in this matchup, with NW shorthanded dealing with lots of recent injuries. Let’s back the Huskies but in the first half only.
7) UK -10.5 vs. South Carolina: This is just a game that UK comes out and SPANKS South Carolina. They are the worst team in the SEC, but it’s a terrible spot for them. Kentucky gets Lamont Butler back, they’re at home, and their off back-to-back losses. They need this game like blood, and they’re not going to let up late, unleashing their anger from the past two losses on the Gamecocks.
8) Creighton -1 vs. Marquette: I gave this out in the early bird & it’s moved to -2 now. Could see it getting even higher. When you get the Blue Jays taking on a ranked team at home in Big East play and they are laying less than 3 it’s an AUTO bet. They are nails at home under McDermott. Simple.
All Plays: 2-Units
Additional Opinions (Non-Official):
Vanderbilt -2.5 over Texas, Florida +9.5 @ Auburn, Iowa +5.5 vs. Wisconsin, Oklahoma +5.5 over Tennessee, App State +5.5 @ Ohio, Houston @ Colorado OVER 128.5, Pittsburgh @ UNC OVER 153.5, Cal +2.5 vs. Wake, Mississippi State +1.5 @ UGA
College Basketball EARLY BIRD Pick, Saturday Slate
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 7, 2025 | 7:24 P.M. CST
These lines are going to MOVE significantly tomorrow, and they are currently available at major sportsbooks. So I’m going to give out some plays below that I KNOW will move in our favor. I will still have an official post tomorrow morning with best bets. Best of luck
Best Bets (Early Bird Specials)
1) Missouri -2.5 vs. Texas A&M
2) Creighton -1 vs. Marquette
3) Clemson +7.5 vs. Duke
Play Ratings: All 2-Stars
College Hoops Best Bet (2/7/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 7, 2025 | 12:04 P.M. CST
Overall Record: 32-14 (69.6%)
Probably caught a bit of a break last night, as Ohio State trailed most of the way, and came back from down 11 late in the second half; they also banked in the go-ahead three in the final 15 seconds. But, we were do after a couple of bad beats and that tough push from NW a few nights back after leading by 15 with 9 minutes left due to their best player getting injured and missing the final 8 minutes of the game. Regardless, back to work tonight, trying to get back above 70%
Best Bet: UCONN -3 vs. St. Johns
This line opened 2.5 and is already seeing money coming in on the Huskies. I anticipate this is going to get to 3.5 the way it’s moved, but we’ll say. I would grab the 3 now, as I don’t see St. John’s money coming in from the public late. Regardless, let’s dive into the matchup and spot here.
There’s no hiding that this UCONN team hasn’t been great this season. Obviously, there was going to be a significant downtick for this program this season, coming off back-to-back national titles, and more importantly LOSING most of their roster. They lost Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle, Cam Spencer, and Tristan Newton all to the NBA Draft, with two of the four going in the top 10. That was 4 of their 5 starters from last year’s National Title team, and they accounted for nearly 70% of the team’s offensive production on the season. All that said, the Huskies still sit 16-6 (8-3 in Big East), tied for 3rd in the loss column in their conference. And, with a win tonight they’d be just one game out of first place in their conference, while holding tiebreakers over 2 of the other top 3 teams.
Additionally, they’ve played most of the season with one of their best players out. Liam McNeeley, the 5-star freshman for the Huskies, has been out over a month. BUT the great news is he is GOING TO PLAY tonight for the first time since January 1st. McNeely has been dealing with a bad high ankle sprain, but he is supposedly 100% good to go tonight. It felt like UCONN held him out longer than necessary, knowing they could get by without him. They just wanted to make sure that once he was back there was not going to be a high risk of re-injury. I also trust Dan Hurley above all else, getting a guy like that back in shape. I don’t feel McNeely returning tonight will be at any disadvantage from not playing the past month. McNeely was their third leading scorer (13.8 PPG) and second leading rebounder on the team when he went out. So his presence will be a welcome site for UCONN fans.
In terms of this specific matchup, we have one of the best offensive teams in the country going up against one of the best defensive teams in the country. UCONN comes in ranked 10th in Offensive Efficiency, while St. John’s comes in ranked 6th in Defensive Efficiency. However, keep in mind, the Huskies built that top 10 offensive ranking while missing their 3rd leading scorer. So, there’s a good chance that UCONN ends the year a top 5 offense in the country. Looking at the metrics, it’s very much a strength vs. strength matchup. UCONN comes in 7th in the nation in Effective FG%, while St. John’s is ranked 22nd in the country in EFG% defense. Both teams are specificially good inside the paint: UCONN 8th in 2FG% (shooting nearly 59%) vs. St. John’s Defense ranked 6th in 2FG% Defense (holding teams to 43%). Overall, a lot of these metrics looking at UCONN’s “O” vs. St. John’s defense are going to look like a wash. In that case, you have to give the slight edge to the offense, because we know in today’s day and age great offense beats great defense a lot of the time.
However, the key metric for me, examining this matchup, comes on the other side of the ball (UCONN Defense vs. SJU Offense). This St. John’s team is HISTORICALLY bad shooting THREES for a team that has had THIS MUCH success. The Johnnies currently sit atop the Big East with just one conference loss, and if they were to hold on and win the Big East they would go down as the worst three-point shooting team to win a power conference in over a decade. They currently sit 340th in the country out of 364 teams in three point percentage, shooting an abysmal 29.4%. They are BETTER shooting it inside the arc at 152nd in the nation, but they aren’t GOOD. This SJU’s team just is NOT an efficient offense, and they don’t shoot it well from anywhere. I mean, even from the FT line they shot sub-70% and they’re 288th nationally in FT%. They rely heavily on their defense and scoring ENOUGH inside the arc. Well, fortunately for UCONNN that’s exactly what they do VERY WELL. They do NOT turn the ball over at a high clip, and they are EXCELLENT defending shots INSIDE THE ARC. The Huskies have just a 16.2% TO% on the season, which ranks in the top 25% of the nation in taking care of the ball. And, they are top-20 NATIONALLY in opponent 2FG%. So, the two areas St. John’s really LIVES and thrives happen to be two areas that UCONN is very good AGAINST. Where UCONN struggles defensively is defending the three-point line; they are allowing teams to shoot a ridiculous 36.8% from three (328th worst 3FG% defense in nation). Well, it’s hard to see a world where St. John’s magically is able to knock down three’s, something they haven’t shown an ability to do all year, regardless of the quality of defense they play. The Johnnies barely even take threes, relative to the rest of the Big East. They are dead last in the conference in 3FGAs, 3FG%, & 3FG production. In fact, they get only 22.5% of their TOTAL PRODUCTION from three point makes, which is the 8th lowest rate in the country.
This specific matchup is TERRIBLE for St. John’s. One last tidbit of information; UCONN plays at an extremely SLOW pace. St. John’s on the other hand, wants to push the pace and play fast (at least on offense). It’s much harder to speed a team down than it is to slow a team down. Usually the slower team controls the pace. AND, this is a home game for UCONN where it tends to be easier to control pace of play. I just think this is a tough spot for the Johnnies. UCONN is a bad matchup for Rick Patino’s bunch, and UCONN needs this to remain in the hunt for a Big East title. It’s a HUGE home game for the Huskies and it’s going to be ROCKING in there. And, they get their 5-star freshman stud back tonight to help their offense, and their rebounding, considering they are not overly large this season. I really like UCONN in this spot. Get it before it gets to 3.5. Back the Huskies as they get a big win tonight
Official Pick: UCONN -3 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Best Bet (2/6/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 6, 2025 | 4:26 P.M. CST
Overall Season Record: 31-14 (68.9%)
Best Bet: Ohio State -1 vs. Maryland
It’s hard to win on the road in big conference consistently. If you look at major conferences over the past 5 years, it’s become extremely difficult to win consistently in hostile environments. I’ve utilized this to my advantage in college basketball for multiple years now, which is why you rarely see me take a road team (there has to be significant value). Not to say teams can’t win on the road, but in the long run, it’s difficult to have success. That’s why we’re going to fade a road team tonight - we’re fading the Maryland Terrapins. The Terps have been a pleasant surprise this season, in Kevin Willard’s fourth year. He’s finally got this team playing up to it’s potential, and they’ve got plenty of talent.
They come into this game on a 4-game win streak as well, with two of those wins coming on the road at Illinois and at Indiana. Now, while the Illinois win is impressive on paper, essentially the Terps got an easy win because Illinois had a horrific shooting night from beyond the arc; and they are a team that is completely reliant on the three-ball to win games. So going 6/28 was a death sentence in itself, but then you throw in 16 TO’s (10 of which were unforced), and that’s how you get to a blowout loss at home. That said, the other win was at Indiana, a game the Terps should’ve lost, but were bailed out by the Hoosiers with poor late game execution. Overall in Big 10 play, the Terps are just 2-4 away from home. So they’re going to try to win their third straight road game, after starting the season 0-4 away from home in conference play. Winning three games in a row on the road is already tough, let alone for teams who have traditionally struggled in those venues.
Additionally, Ohio State is play good basketball right now. After starting Big 10 play off just 2-5, they’ve won 3 of their last 4 games, including a very impressive ROAD WIN at Purdue (Mackey Field House is quite possibly the toughest venue to play at in the country). So they’ve been playing their best basketball as of late, that’s for sure. Their last outing was a loss; but, it was a road game at Illinois, and that was a game Illinois HAD to have after dropping 3 of 4. Ohio State didn’t play poorly, they just really struggled INSIDE the arc. They were 11/23 from three (48%), made 14/15 free throws (93%), and had just 5 TO’s. But they were awful from 2FGs, shooting 32% from inside the arc. That cost the game, along with the fact that Illinois got to the FT line DOUBLE the times OSU did. So I look at that game and try to see if their season long metrics show why that happened. And, well Ohio State isn’t a poor two-point shooting team. They aren’t ELITE, but they shoot 53.4% on the season. Going into that Ohio State game they were in the top 25% of the country in 2FG%, and even with that poor outing, they still sit top 50 in the country in Effective FG%. So, I would be very surprised to see Ohio State struggle like that in the paint again tonight.
Overall, we’re getting the better shooting team here, at home, and they are coming off a road loss. The Buckeyes are 3-2 off a road loss this season. They’re also significantly better at home, especially offensively. And, while the Terps have won two straight road games, they’ve shown a propensity to struggle in tougher environments. Tonight is going to be just that, as Ohio State needs this game like blood. A loss here would drop them to 13-10 and their NCAA tourney hopes would be in serious jeopardy. So let’s back the home team tonight here and take the Buckeyes at a virtual pick ‘em.
Official Pick: Ohio State -1 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
Additional Best Bet College Hoops (2/5/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 5, 2025 | 6:38 P.M. CST
Sorry for the late addition, but this game doesn’t tip for another three hours. We’re going to add one play a little later like we did last night. Last night it didn’t work out too well for us lol. Hopefully we can steal a win back here on the late night ticket.
Best Bet: Washington -1 (1H) vs. Nebraska
We’re going to go to a first half best bet here. This Washington team has really struggled to play a full 40 minutes in some of the games I’ve watched this season. That largely has to do with their lack of depth, as well as the fact that their best player is Great Osobor. He plays a ton of minutes and he’s, well, big boned. And he tends to run out of gas at the end of games sometimes.
Overall, neither of these teams are great. I actually am much higher on Nebraska than others, BUT I only like backing the Huskers in HOME games. They are a completely different team away from home. Now, yes they did just have a big win at Oregon a couple nights ago, but that same Oregon team has been struggling significantly lately; they are not the same team they looked like early in the year. Additionally, Oregon has a very weak home court advantage.
Now, while Washington hasn’t been great early in games, by any means, as a whole they’ve played BETTER in the first half than in the second. We saw them actually LEAD by DOUBLE DIGITS over a top ten Purdue team at halftime a couple weeks ago. There’s been multiple other games this year where the Huskies have hung in the game in the first half or even LED at the break but found a way to LOSE the game late in the contest: both UCLA games, @ Oregon, & vs. Purdue. On the other hand, we’ve NOT seen this team come from behind much this year; if Washington gets down early (or is down at halftime) they have not shown any ability to comeback and win the game outright. Considering we’re basically sitting at a pick ‘em in the game (UW -1.5). Thus, if we are going to back UW in this spot, I’d much rather do it in the first half and only have to win the first 20 minutes. If we’re down at halftime, there’s a high probability we are going to lose the bet anyways.
I also like that this UW is coming off a big win. They had just ONE conference win all season before their last outing. They went into Minnesota and won outright on Saturday. It has zero bearing on post-season tournaments or anything of that nature, but it WILL give this group a confidence boost coming out tonight. Meanwhile, Nebraska has had some really rough starts on the road this season. It looks like they MAY have righted the ship with two straight wins. However, I’m not ready to anoint their road woes fixed with just one away victory. I like Fred Hoiberg, but his Huskers have shown no ability to consistently win on the road the last COUPLE of seasons.
Overall, I like the Huskies in this spot. I think they are going to come out with some confidence and give Nebraska (a POOR road team) all they can handle. I’m just a bit worried about having to hold on for an entire 40 minutes. Also, I tend to lose TWO ways, trailing from start to finish when I’m dead wrong, and leading the entire game and finding a way to lose in the final few minutes (like Northwestern pushing yesterday). So let’s roll with the Huskies in the FIRST HALF ONLY.
Official Pick: Washington -1 (1H)
Play Rating: 2-Star